Wednesday, July26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lyndonville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 8:44PM Wednesday July 26, 2017 12:41 AM EDT (04:41 UTC) Moonrise 8:37AMMoonset 9:50PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ062 Lake Ontario Open Waters From The Niagara River To Hamlin Beach- 1037 Pm Edt Tue Jul 25 2017
Overnight..South winds less than 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast less than 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds less than 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ062 Expires:201707260915;;837635 FZUS61 KBUF 260237 GLFLO Open Lake Forecast for Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1037 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Ontario Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A 30.2 inch high will drift across the lake overnight. The high will move across New England on Wednesday. A cold front over the Upper Great Lakes Wednesday night will push across the lake on Thursday. An expansive 30.1 inch high will then move from Manitoba to the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night and Friday. The large surface high is forecast to remain centered over the Upper Great Lakes through Saturday. LOZ062-260915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lyndonville, NY
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location: 43.54, -78.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 260301
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1101 pm edt Tue jul 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure centered over the upper great lakes this evening
will drift across our forecast area tonight and Wednesday. This
will bring much improved weather to the bulk of the region while
keeping temperatures a few degrees below normal. A slow moving
cold front will then produce some showers and thunderstorms over
the region late Wednesday night and Thursday.

Near term through Wednesday
A wealth of low level moisture over the region early this
evening will continue to thin out and clear from the north and
west as we proceed through the overnight. This will lead to
mainly clear starlit skies over the western counties... Although
the clearing trend may not be quite as pronounced for the
eastern lake ontario region.

Given the wet antecedent conditions of the ground and slow late
day clearing... It is likely that much of western new york will
experience some fog and or the development of some low stratus
late tonight. This will be accompanied by relatively cool
conditions as the mercury will drop into the 50s regionwide. In
fact... Some the southern tier valleys could experience
temperatures in the upper 40s by daybreak.

On Wednesday... The same area of high pressure that helped to
clear our skies will be exiting across new england. This will
support a nice day across our region with partly to mostly sunny
skies helping to boost our temperatures back up through the 70s.

Parts of western new york... Especially the warmer valleys...

could make it back to 80.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday night
Low level anticyclone will build east-southeast through the great
lakes region under building heights Wednesday. No real sensible
weather concerns as we start the period Wednesday, other than some
possible patchy southern tier river valley fog early Wednesday with
a stable dry airmass in place. Developing warm air advection along
with ample sunshine will allow afternoon temperatures to recover
into the mid to upper 70s, perhaps a bit warmer for interior
sections.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Models seem to be having a difficult
time with precipitation convection on boundaries during this time.

There should be some convection Wednesday evening north of lake
ontario co-located with a weak surface trough. With moisture
streaming north toward the boundary, there is a chance that some
convection may form along decaying remnant lake breeze convergent
regions in the evening overnight, which sometimes occurs in a warm
advective environment, but but bulk of potential convection should
remain north of lake ontario and or into the eastern lake ontario
region.

For Thursday, the NAM and its variants seem to want to either bring
a boundary through early Thu am or keep wny completely dry through
thu. The canadian leans toward the am side. Meanwhile, the gfs
follows more typical afternoon lake breeze forced convection with an
afternoon trough passage. Forecast confidence for Wed eve and thu
is rather low, so will in general continue with past forecasts
noting the highest threat for measurable precipitation on thu.

By Friday, a north or northeast flow should be in place with upper
level forcing focused toward the oh valley pa. This should keep the
bulk of precipitation and associated convection south of the region.

There is the chance of lake breeze initiated convection, so will
leave in a chance of showers in the afternoon, but confidence for
overall forecast for Fri is low until models hone in on overall
atmospheric pattern.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Picture perfect weekend weather on tap for all of western ny and the
north country. On Saturday a splitting trough will move east of the
forecast area, with the southern portion settling over virginia and
north carolina while the northern portion exits through the canadian
maritimes. The result for us will be a pool of cooler air aloft
advecting across the region in the wake of this trough passage. 850
mb temperatures around +8 +9c with a northerly wind picking up lake
moisture and upsloping will allow for cloudiness to linger through
Saturday morning, before diurnal mixing helps break clouds in a
cumulus field for the afternoon. High temps Saturday will be
slightly below normal in the mid 70s with low humidity. Ridging
builds into the region Sunday with warming 850 mb temps back into
the low teens c, which will push our afternoon highs back to near
normal with highs around 80. Sunday will feature more abundant
sunshine as high pressure builds overhead.

Model solutions diverge for the start of next week with differences
in the magnitude of a trough over easter canada. A stronger trough
may force a weak cold frontal passage through the area with some
scattered showers and a very subtle few degrees cooler in
temperature to near normal. A weaker trough would keep the stretch
of dry weather going from the weekend right into the early next week
with slightly above normal temperatures.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure will drift across western and north central new york
overnight. Dry air associated with this feature will continue to
thin out the cloud cover... Although the clearing over the far
western counties will likely lead to some fog and areas of low
stratus (because of moist antecedent soil conditions). This should
lead to some ifr conditions across much of the southern tier and
possibly parts of the finger lakes region after 08z.

On Wednesday... While the area of high pressure will push east
across new england... It will continue to support fair dry
weather. Any residual ifr conditions at daybreak will give way
toVFR weather regionwide by 14z.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...VFR.

Thursday... MVFRVFR with showers and thunderstorms becoming
likely.

Friday through Sunday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
High pressure centered over the upper great lakes at 23z will
continue to drift east across lakes erie and ontario tonight.

This feature has already allowed winds to subside across the
region... So all small craft advisories and related beach hazard
statements have been discontinued.

Light winds and negligible waves can thus be expected across the
lower great lakes and their adjoining bodies of water tonight
through Wednesday.

While winds will freshen a little ahead of an approaching cold
front Wednesday night... Winds and waves are forecast to remain
below small craft advisory criteria through Thursday. The only
concern will be an increasing risk for thunderstorms as we push
from late Wednesday night (lake ontario) into Thursday (all of
lower great lakes region).

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rsh
near term... Rsh
short term... Zaff
long term... Church
aviation... Rsh
marine... Rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 30 mi41 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 62°F 1024.4 hPa (+0.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 36 mi41 min 58°F 1023.8 hPa (+0.0)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 38 mi41 min SW 5.1 G 5.1 62°F 1024.7 hPa (+0.0)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 43 mi51 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 67°F 70°F1 ft1023.7 hPa (+0.3)
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax 44 mi101 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 68°F 71°F1 ft1023.1 hPa
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 49 mi41 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 65°F 1023.4 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY41 mi47 minN 010.00 miFair58°F55°F93%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW7NW6N6N8N7N8NW5NW4NW5N6N5N10N8N7N6NE3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE4S3SW3CalmCalmS5SW7SW5W5NW7N7W4NW76NW13
G20
W12N12N8N9N9NW3NW4W5W6
2 days agoSE5E6CalmE3E4E6E5E5SE8SE6CalmSE6E6NE12NE10E10NE10E7E9E10E7NE4NE6SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.