Friday, July21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Sanilac, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 9:03PM Friday July 21, 2017 12:31 AM EDT (04:31 UTC) Moonrise 3:15AMMoonset 6:26PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 1003 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Rest of tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northeast late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the south in the late evening and overnight. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the north late in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and early morning.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ463 Expires:201707210800;;572379 FZUS63 KDTX 210208 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1003 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A front located between western Lake Erie and southern Lake Huron will become stationary over Lake Erie tonight. Weak high pressure...30.00 inches...will move east through the central Great Lakes region on Friday. The next low pressure system is then projected to approach the region Friday night and bring periods of thunderstorms Friday night through Sunday. Winds will be light with little impact on waves outside of thunderstorms. LHZ462>464-210800-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Sanilac, MI
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location: 43.54, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 210357
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1157 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017

Aviation
High pressure will build into the region through Friday, yielding
generally benign weather conditions. A warm but stable environment
will support mostly clear skies both tonight and during the daylight
period Friday. This environment will support a greater inland
penetration of the lake breeze off both lakes huron and erie,
prompting a noted wind shift at the favored terminals in detroit and
mbs.

For dtw... Late afternoon lake breeze passage will shift a
light variable wind to southeasterly with a slight increase in
speed.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

Prev discussion
Issued at 354 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017
discussion...

aggressive stratocumulus development has occurred this afternoon and
is spreading rapidly across much of southeastern michigan. Back loop
on satellite imagery suggests this cloud is resulting from higher
near surface moisture outflow that emanated northeastward away from
mcs activity last night over portions of northern illinois and
indiana. Forcing for ascent lines up well ahead of the midlevel
700mb dry push that was highlighted in the update discussion.

Clearing behind this cloud and cumulus along the I 94 corridor back
from jackson to battle creeks shows some potential for convective
development yet in the 20-22z time window. Will continue a low
chance pop south of I 69 late this afternoon. No severe weather
anticipated.

Rising 1000-500mb geopotential heights in tandem with possibly 2
seperate bouts of (negative) differential cyclonic vorticity
advection will support surface high pressure over the great lakes
regions tonight and Friday. A superb day of mid summer weather. It
will be very warm, increased temperatures to around 90 degrees.

Item of interest has now become what will the likelihood be for
numerous to widespread thunderstorm development late Friday night
and Saturday. The big difference with the pattern by then will be
the entrance region of the upper level jet axis will finally arrive
and push into the straits by late Friday night. This will
effectively force the longwave to push eastward, movement that will
bring the main theta E ridge instability into a portion of the
southern great lakes. Some uncertainty does remain as to exactly how
far northward the instability gradient will get here in the cwa.

Models show the low level jet axis veering over into lower michigan
in response to the passing entrance region, which should allow for a
big warm air advection event centered around Saturday morning.

Certainly have no qualms with likely pops at this time. Depending on
trajectory of cells could even be looking at a heavy rainfall,
flooding potential. The big specter hanging over the certainty is
that there is no significant potential vorticity feature driving the
event, rather it will require some pre-existing convective
shortwave. Therefore, plenty of time exists for specifics. Some
potential does exist for severe weather Saturday, particularly if a
mature cold pool dominated MCS can track into the area (see swody3),
but uncertainty is high. Latest forecast soundings show plenty of
cloud and moisture which limits lapse rates and CAPE later on,
during the day Saturday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will diminish by Sunday evening as a
low pressure system exits the area. High pressure will then build
into the great lakes region for Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing dry
conditions and sunshine. Shower and thunderstorm chances return
toward the end of the extended period as models indicate a weak cold
front moving through southeast michigan at some point between
Thursday and Friday. Daytime highs will be in the low 80s on Sunday
before a cold front will bring highs down into the mid to upper-70s
for Monday and Tuesday. A shift to southwesterly flow will then
bring temperatures back into the low-80s for Wednesday and Thursday.

Low temperatures will hover around the upper-50s to low-60s.

Marine...

outside of any thunderstorms, marine winds will be light and have
little impact on waves into the weekend, as high pressure moves in
tonight. The next low pressure system is projected to arrive
Saturday morning, triggering numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Broad low pressure looks to be persisting over the central great
lakes on Sunday as well, which could trigger additional scattered
activity with increasing northeast winds following Sunday night into
Monday. Wave heights at or above 4 feet across the southern lake
huron basin will be possible on Monday.

Hydrology...

low pressure coming out of the midwest Friday evening and tracking
into the western great lakes Friday night is expected to produce
showers and thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday. There is
a slight chance the storms will be severe. The high moisture content
of the airmass will lead to flood concerns, with widespread 1 to 2
inches possible within a couple hours time if the stronger storms
materialize, with localized higher amounts. However, it remains
possible the bulk of the complex and heavy rain tracks south of the
michigan border.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... CB am
marine... ... .Cb
hydrology... .Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 5 mi91 min SW 7.8 G 7.8 74°F 71°F1012.9 hPa (+0.4)
PSCM4 22 mi31 min WSW 5.1 G 7 76°F 1013.5 hPa (+0.0)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 33 mi43 min WSW 5.1 G 8 76°F 1012.5 hPa70°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 39 mi43 min W 2.9 G 5.1 76°F 1013.4 hPa68°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 41 mi43 min 78°F 1013.2 hPa
KP58 47 mi40 min Calm 75°F 1011.7 hPa69°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI47 mi34 minWSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F68°F87%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmSE3S6SE5S5S6S7W9W13
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1 day agoCalmCalmSW4SW4CalmS3CalmW3CalmN5N6N5N5CalmNW4W5W8NW6N4E5CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW3S7S6SW6SW4SW8SW9SW5SW9
G14
SW7SW3SW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.