Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Sanilac, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 5:04PM Saturday November 18, 2017 8:25 PM EST (01:25 UTC) Moonrise 7:18AMMoonset 5:36PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 338 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.gale warning in effect through Sunday evening...
Tonight..North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming northwest at 35 knot gales with gusts to 40 knot gales. Showers and a chance of snow showers early in the evening...then snow showers and a chance of showers in the late evening and early morning. A chance of snow showers early in the morning. Waves 8 to 12 feet building to 12 to 16 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knot gales decreasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales in the late morning and afternoon. A chance of snow showers until late afternoon. Waves 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots after midnight. Gusts to 35 knot gales. Waves 5 to 7 feet building to 6 to 9 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales decreasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales late in the morning...then becoming west 15 to 20 knots late in the evening. A chance of showers late in the morning. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots early in the evening...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet until early morning. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
LHZ463 Expires:201711190915;;610717 FZUS63 KDTX 182038 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 338 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure, 29.20 inches, will lift across Lake Erie tonight. High pressure, 30.30 inches, then builds across the Ohio Valley for the latter half of the weekend. LHZ462>464-190915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Sanilac, MI
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location: 43.54, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 182342
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
642 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

Update
There is a region of mid level deformation over SE mi to the west of
the sfc low now over lake erie. Radar suggests some good contraction
of the mid level front ongoing across the area. This along with
cooling due to melting has enhanced a region of snow on the cool side
of the mid level front. Despite some rather good flake size, sfc
temps a couple degrees above freezing and warm pavement temps will
keep accumulations limited to grassy surfaces. The region of snow
should slowly progress across the rest of SE mi during the evening,
while the back edge is already sliding into the tri cites. Based on
radar and observations, some slushy accumulations around a half inch
seem probable on grassy areas along and north of an adrian to port
huron line. A little warmer boundary layer temps to the southeast of
this line should preclude much accums. Any easing of the precip
intensity is also likely to switch precip type back over to light
rain before ending altogether by late evening.

Despite cold air advection through the night, gusty winds and ample
cloud cover will prevent a sharp drop in temps. In fact, temps are
likely to hold above freezing well into the night. So road surfaces
should just remain wet. Overall the going forecast looks reasonable,
an update will just be issued to reflect current trends.

Prev discussion
Issued at 605 pm est Sat nov 18 2017
aviation...

a region of enhanced precip rates will affect SE mi on the back side
of deepening low pressure now tracking across lake erie. There has
been enough cooling on the back side of the precip to change the
rain over to snow around mbs. This region of snow will progress
across the rest of SE mi through 03 or 04z before exiting east of
the region. Ongoing low level cold air advection through the night
will result in rising inversions and thus lifting cloud bases. There
is likely to be a few lake effect streamers that make their way into
se mi overnight. The brevity of any overnight snow showers will
preclude the mention in the tafs attm. The deepening mixed layer and
increasing gradient will support strengthening winds during the
evening as they back toward the west-northwest. Gusts are still
expected to approach (or briefly exceed) 30 knots.

For dtw... A period of wet snow is expected between 01z and 04z.

Relatively warm sfc and pavement temps will preclude accumulation on
anything except grassy surfaces. The wind direction through the
evening will remain a little more northerly, thus inhibiting
crosswind concerns. The wind direction will back westerly overnight.

This may lead to some crosswind considerations by daybreak Sunday.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs AOB 5kft tonight and Sunday.

* moderate for snow mixing in with rain 00z-04z.

* low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded Sunday morning.

Prev discussion...

issued at 331 pm est Sat nov 18 2017
discussion...

categorical rainfall has been spreading across all of southeast
michigan this afternoon. The center of the surface low is now
located on the central in oh border. A cold front also continues its
progression southeastward through central michigan keeping widespread
rainfall likely through this evening. The current track of the
surface remains further south across northwestern ohio and through
central lake erie. This will focus the highest rainfall totals across
the further southeast counties. It has also kept the more unstable
warm sector south of the mi oh border. However, some lightning and
rumbles of thunder earlier this afternoon were observed in far
southern portions of the state given mid level lapse rates of around
6 c km. Do not expect much thunder the rest of the day.

The biggest challenge for this forecast will be this evening with
the timing of the surface low deepening and the arrival of the cold
air resulting in potential snowfall accumulation in the flint to
tri-cities areas. Latest guidance has a stronger push of colder air
in the evening coinciding with precipitation within the area of
strong deformation. Add in the diurnal cooling component and the
column will cool enough to transition from all rain to a rain snow
mix or mostly snow between 22z to 00z. Confidence is increasing for
areas to see some minor accumulations in portions of the northwestern
cwa around the tri-cities and flint area. Enough forcing exists
after the lower levels cool to produce some higher snowfall rates
through the evening. The winds will also pick up substantially
heading into the evening and overnight period. The surface low will
begin to deepen as it reaches the eastern great lakes. This will
result in cold and brisk northwest winds as the surface pressure
gradient increases this evening and lasting through tomorrow morning.

Wind gusts up to 35-40 mph still look possible late this evening and
overnight as winds of around 40 knots should be able to mix down.

The bulk of the forcing and precipitation with the system will exit
east of michigan by 05z to 06z leaving michigan under good northwest
flow. Plenty of clouds are in store tomorrow with the lakes providing
some added moisture. An embedded shortwave within this northwest
flow will progress southeastward across michigan should provide lift
in conjunction with some lower level instability should support snow
showers tomorrow morning through the early afternoon. Do not expect
much accumulation from this round of light snow showers. High
temperatures will dip below normal topping out in the mid 30s as 850
mb temperatures of -10 c move in by Sunday afternoon.

More dry and quiet weather expected by Monday as height rises drift
through the great lakes. Cold temperatures in the mid 20s are
forecast for Monday morning with the deeper cold air still in place.

Winds will shift to the southwest by Monday afternoon ahead of the
next low pressure system to affect the region. This will allow a
brief period warm air advection to bring temperatures back up to the
low to mid 40s, which is more towards normal for this time of year.

Low pressure tracking eastward through ontario will pull a cold
front through the region on Tuesday. Ahead of the front gusty
southwest winds will develop as highs rise into the upper 40s across
far southeast michigan. A few showers will be possible with the
frontal passage before colder air quickly filters into the region by
Tuesday night. A calm, dry stretch of weather is then expected
through the rest of the workweek as high pressure remains in place
across the region. Temperatures will remain slightly below average
with highs in the mid to upper 30s lows in the mid to upper 20s for
the thanksgiving holiday before moderating slightly by late next
week.

Marine...

gale warnings remain in effect for all marine areas this evening
into Sunday.

Rapidly strengthening low pressure will lift across lake erie this
evening on its way east of the great lakes by Sunday morning. Winds
will increase substantially during the rest of the day. Northwest
gales are expected to develop near the low from western lake erie
into southern lake huron early this evening. As winds peak during
the late night hours, gales will expand into northern lake huron
with gusts increasing to 40 knots, and perhaps 45 knots at times,
over southern parts of the lake. These wind conditions will produce
waves in the 12 to 16 foot range.

Gales will persist into Sunday, but gradually diminish during the
afternoon and evening. A period of moderate to fresh westerlies will
follow the gales from Sunday night into Monday night. Southwest
gales will then be possible early Tuesday as the next low pressure
system tracks across northern ontario.

Hydrology...

light rain will remain mainly focused south of the m59 corridor for
the next several hours. Rain coverage to the west will fill in
throughout the morning as it tracks closer to the area. By this
afternoon, all of SE michigan will see moderate rain. Additional
rainfall totals will range from around 0.5" in the saginaw valley
area to an inch near the ohio border. The heaviest rain will be
focused in the 1pm to 7pm time frame. Minor urban flooding remains a
possibility.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning until 7 pm est Sunday for lhz361>363-462>464.

Gale warning until 10 am est Sunday for lhz421-441>443.

Gale warning until 7 am est Sunday for lhz422.

Lake st clair... Gale warning until 10 am est Sunday for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Gale warning until 10 am est Sunday for lez444.

Update... ... .Sc
aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Aa jd
marine... ... .Dg
hydrology... .Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 5 mi86 min N 23
PSCM4 22 mi26 min NNW 18 G 27 37°F 993.9 hPa (+0.7)
KP58 47 mi35 min N 11 G 26 39°F 994.9 hPa35°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI47 mi30 minN 14 G 2410.00 miLight Snow37°F35°F97%995.3 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.