Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Sanilac, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 9:01PM Monday May 29, 2017 7:26 AM EDT (11:26 UTC) Moonrise 9:00AMMoonset 11:48PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 342 Am Edt Mon May 29 2017
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers until early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots until early morning. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers until afternoon. A chance of Thunderstorms until late afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ463 Expires:201705292000;;385249 FZUS63 KDTX 290752 GLFLH OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE HURON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 342 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OFF SHORE ON LAKE HURON WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. .SYNOPSIS...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LONG DURATION OF MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND TO SEE A SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LHZ462>464-292000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Sanilac, MI
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location: 43.54, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 291109
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
709 am edt Mon may 29 2017

Aviation
Dry air has infiltrated the region resulting in little to no cloud
fraction this morning. Only exception are some patches of midcloud
altostratus that has been filling in at times. One patch is exiting
the thumb, while another is making a run for far southeastern
michigan. Fairly inconsequential, but will have to be accounted for
today. Otherwise, static westerly flow around southern periphery of
ontario closed low will lead to breezy gradient winds over the
terminals. High confidence in exceeding 20 knots, moderate
confidence in reaching and exceeding 25 knots. Antecedent ground
moisture from precipitation yesterday will help in a diurnal cumulus
response today, although dry nature of airmass overhead will lead to
very high mixing heights with cloud bases at 6.0 to 7,0 kft agl. Low
chance for showers today. Best potential now appears set for the
southern TAF sites with as a 700-600mb moisture axis under favorable
deformation lifts into the area. Have accounted for the
precipitation mention with a prob30 group.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 335 am edt Mon may 29 2017
discussion...

upper low centered just north of lake superior will broaden with the
addition of upper energy dropping through central canada and the
northern plains. This system will encompass the great lakes through
early Wednesday as it slowly wobbles east across ontario.

Upper shortwave pivoting around the low center will swing across
lower michigan today, with a narrow ribbon of theta-e advection
streaming into michigan ahead of it. Lapse rates will steepen with
daytime heating, and as upper cold pool associated with the low
slides in overhead. This looks to generate 500-1000 j kg of sbcape
by afternoon, providing a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Expecting just a scattered coverage with forecast soundings showing
saturation only between 800-600mb, and a boost from a strengthening
jet streak rounding the base of the upper low.

Breezy conditions will develop by this afternoon as southwesterly
gradient tightens between low pressure over ontario and high
pressure over the gulf states and tennessee valley. Gusts look to
reach between 25 and 30 knots by afternoon as the mixed layer
deepens and winds aloft strengthen slightly. Well-mixed boundary
layer and h925 temps rising to between 16-18c should boost max
temperatures into the mid 70s to near 80.

Chances for showers, or even a thunderstorm, tomorrow and Wednesday
look lower compared today as moist layer looks fairly shallow. Will
retain very low pops however as weak shortwaves look to continue
streaming over the area from around the upper low to our north. Cold
air advection will make for cooler temperatures, with MAX temps
reaching the mid 60s to near 70. Breezy conditions will also
continue as surface features remain fairly stagnant. Upper low will
finally lift out of the area Wednesday night, with high pressure
providing dry weather into Thursday.

Quite a bit of uncertainty then as we head into the end of the week
as an upper ridge builds through the plains and into central canada,
and a strong upper low drops through ontario and quebec. Medium-
range models are still struggling with where to place the larger
features, making it difficult to pinpoint where an active frontal
zone will set up from late Thursday into the weekend. Model
solutions currently range from southern michigan to the southern
ohio valley. Latest GFS euro support better chance for
showers tstorms on Friday, with at least some of the weekend under
high pressure as the frontal zone sinks to our south.

Marine...

west to southwest winds will increase today as an upper level low
pressure system settles into the central great lakes. Wind gusts
look to increase to around 20 knots for much of the marine areas.

The exception is over saginaw bay where a small craft advisory has
been issued for this morning through Tuesday evening as winds will
likely reach and exceed 25 knots this upper level low pressure
system is expected to become a persistent feature this week, possibly
reorganizing again late this week and upcoming weekend.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt Tuesday for lhz421-422.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Hlo
marine... ... .Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 5 mi86 min SW 9.7 G 9.7 49°F 45°F1 ft1005.9 hPa (+1.0)
PSCM4 22 mi26 min W 8 G 12 59°F 1007.1 hPa (+1.7)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 33 mi38 min WSW 8.9 G 13 60°F 1005.6 hPa60°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 39 mi38 min W 8 G 9.9 59°F 1006.6 hPa55°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 41 mi38 min 60°F 1006.6 hPa
KP58 47 mi35 min WSW 7 59°F 1005.2 hPa56°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bad Axe, Huron County Memorial Airport, MI47 mi49 minSW 610.00 miOvercast58°F55°F93%1006.8 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S5S9S10
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1 day agoSE3SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6E6E7E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE3CalmS3SE3
2 days agoNW6NW8N8N9N7N9N9NW5W5CalmCalmNW3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.