Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Sanilac, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 7:54PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 1:09 PM EDT (17:09 UTC) Moonrise 7:25AMMoonset 8:54PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 957 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Rest of today..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. A chance of snow and rain in the morning...then rain and snow in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the afternoon.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots early in the evening. Rain. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain likely...then a chance of rain early in the evening. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots until early morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable...then becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ463 Expires:201703292015;;262453 FZUS63 KDTX 291357 GLFLH OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE HURON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 957 AM EDT WED MAR 29 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OFF SHORE ON LAKE HURON WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE...30.50 INCHES...WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OF 29.50 INCHES...WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS LOW THEN LIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WEAKENING AS IT HEADS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. LHZ462>464-292015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Sanilac, MI
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location: 43.54, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 291054
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
654 am edt Wed mar 29 2017

Aviation
Aside from a few to perhaps a brief period of scattered CU this
afternoon, skies will remain clear below 12k ft as strong high
pressure remains anchored to the north of the region today.

For dtw... Light winds early this morning will transition to
northeast around 10 knots by 15 or 16z as daytime heating deepens
the mixed layer.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 339 am edt Wed mar 29 2017
discussion...

quiet day today with really only minor temperature and cloud trend
concerns as surface high pressure sliding across northern ontario in
conjunction with mid level ridging stay in control of the weather.

Temperatures will stay similar to Tuesday with highs around 50,
except in the shadows of the lakes where cool easterly flow may keep
them in the 40s. Even with a slightly cooler thermal profile due to
continued east/northeast flow into the region around the area of
high pressure, a good deal of late march Sun with diurnal mixing up
to around 900mb should get us a degree or so above Tuesday highs.

Some possible stratus off lake huron may stall the warming trend
across the north, but will have to wait and see the extend and
thickness of those clouds. Otherwise may just see some cirrus
sliding in later in the day ahead of the next system.

The next low pressure system is currently over the southern plains
embedded in a deep closed upper low. A strong jet rounding the base
of the upper level trough will start to shear some energy
northeastward into the western great lakes later tonight. The low
itself will then track up through western lake erie on Friday. With
the system originating so far south with strong 850mb moisture
transport ahead of the trough, should get a widespread region of
soaking rain. Model estimates for Thursday morning through Friday
afternoon are around 0.75 to 1" of rainfall. Models have been locked
onto this system for a few period now but there are a few questions
that remain, mainly ptype at the onset Thursday morning, and how
long does precip linger on Friday on the backside?
thermal profile Wednesday night is cold enough for some snow across
the north and surface dew points around 30 will aid in that with wet
bulb cooling. Models hold off on the better moisture and forcing til
after 12z Thursday but do continue to advertise a lead 700mb fgen
band with a midlevel PV filament getting shed from the low still to
the south. Right entrance region of the upper level jet will be a
bit further north but still close enough to support the forcing.

They've held firm on this and current IR satellite images over iowa
are showing hints of this feature. If this forcing can set up over
the area while the cold air is still in place, locations north of
about i69 could end up seeing some wet snow before the changeover to
rain. Introduced some light accums (less than 1 inch) to start
giving credit to this. The 850mb jet will slide through lower mi
around 15-18z Thursday bringing with it a slug of moisture and
warmer air aloft which should result in all rain.

The deformation band will linger over SE mi on Friday as the low is
slow to exit east. Always a question of how fast the ridge and drier
air behind it can scour things out but for now will keep rain going
through the day. After having temperatures bottom out on Thursday,
likely in the low/mid 40s, temperatures will trend back up through
early next week as high pressure through the weekend with periods of
southerly flow allow for a steady increase. Next chance of rain
looks to be Monday/Tuesday as the southern stream remains active,
sending the next system through the ohio valley once again.

Marine...

modest north-northeast winds will persist through the day as strong
high pressure expands from the northern to the eastern great lakes.

Gusts will continue to top 20 knots at times across the southern
lake huron basin and saginaw bay. A tightening of the easterly
gradient will take hold tonight into Thursday night as low pressure
lifts into the ohio valley and strong high pressure holds to the
northeast of the region. Shallow cold air across lake huron will
support neutral to slightly unstable low level conditions, allowing
winds to increase. Small craft advisory conditions are likely to
develop on Thursday and possibly persist through Friday as winds
back to the northeast. The low level wind field will be strongest
across northern and central lake huron, where there is a high
probability that wind gusts will reach 30 knots. There is a chance
that gale force gusts will develop thurs night into Fri morning.

This will be monitored over the next couple forecast cycles in the
event some gale warnings need to be issued. The surface low will
pass east of the region Fri night, with a diminishing trend to the
winds following in its wake.

Hydrology...

a slow moving low pressure system will bring a few rounds of
precipitation to the region Thursday through Friday. Precipitation
will arrive on Thursday along a lead warm front. While most of this
will fall as rain, some snow is possible across the northern saginaw
valley and thumb region. Additional rainfall will then occur on
Friday as the main low pressure system lifts across the eastern
great lakes. Two-day total rainfall amounts from this system are
forecast to range from three quarters of an inch to one inch. These
amounts spread over two days should result in just minor rises to
area rivers and streams.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Sc
hydrology... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSCM4 22 mi70 min NNE 8.9 G 9.9 37°F 1026.1 hPa (+0.4)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 33 mi52 min N 11 G 12 35°F 1025.8 hPa33°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 39 mi52 min ENE 8 G 8.9 38°F 1024.9 hPa32°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 41 mi52 min 52°F 1024.7 hPa
KP58 47 mi79 min NE 8.9 38°F 1027.5 hPa32°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bad Axe, Huron County Memorial Airport, MI47 mi14 minNE 11 G 1510.00 miFair44°F35°F71%1026.4 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10
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NE11N8N12NE9NE9NE6NE4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmN7N8N7N10
1 day ago--W9W7W7NW7W3NW4NE4NE4NE5NE3NE5N5N5N5N5N7N8N6N7NE8
G14
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2 days agoSE9SE4SE3E5SE5SE5SE7S4S3S4S6S5S6SW4SW3S4SW4SW3SW5SW4W7W7W7W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.