Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Barker, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 5:57PM Thursday February 22, 2018 9:20 PM EST (02:20 UTC) Moonrise 10:47AMMoonset 12:06AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ062 Lake Ontario Open Waters From The Niagara River To Hamlin Beach- 648 Pm Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Rain from late morning on. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east less than 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..East winds increasing to 30 knots. Rain overnight. Waves building to 3 to 6 feet.
Sunday..Southwest gales to 35 knots. Rain early. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LOZ062 Expires:201802230415;;396119 FZUS61 KBUF 222348 GLFLO Open Lake Forecast for Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo NY 648 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Ontario Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS... A 30.8 inch high will slowly drift from southern Ontario and Quebec to the Canadian Maritimes tonight. A broad 29.9 inch low tracking northeastward across the Central and Upper Lakes will then push a warm front across the lake on Friday. In the wake of this system, high pressure over the Northern Plains Friday evening will then briefly build across Lake Ontario late Friday night and Saturday, before a deep storm system tracks from the Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday. LOZ062-230415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Barker, NY
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location: 43.55, -78.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 230146
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
846 pm est Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis
Mainly dry weather will prevail through tonight... Before another
low pressure system brings another round of milder temperatures and
mainly rain to our area on Friday. Above normal temperatures will
then continue through the weekend... With yet another storm system
bringing another round of widespread rain and windy conditions
Saturday night and Sunday.

Near term through Friday
Our region will lie between systems tonight... As surface high
pressure over southern quebec will drift eastward across maine to
the canadian maritimes. The high will provide our region with quiet
and mainly dry weather... With an associated incursion of drier air
and subsidence also helping to bring at least some partial clearing
to areas north of the nys thruway... While further south lower clouds
will remain intact thanks to a swath of lingering low level
moisture.

Very late tonight chances for precipitation will begin to slowly
increase across the southern tier out ahead of an approaching warm
front... Though at this point the coverage of such looks to remain
rather limited through daybreak... With surface temperatures across
this also simultaneously rising above freezing... And thereby
resulting in whatever precip does occur likely falling in the form
of plain light rain. Expect mainly evening lows to range from the
teens across the north country to the 25-30 range across most areas
south of lake ontario... With readings then rising overnight as the
low level flow veers to southeasterly and warm air advection
commences.

On Friday... Yet another broad and loosely organized low pressure
system will bodily track northeastward across the central great
lakes and to the ontario-quebec border... And in the process will
push its attendant warm front northeastward across our region.

Ongoing warm air advection overrunning out ahead of this system will
result in widespread cloud cover and light precipitation
overspreading our region from southwest to northeast once again...

for which categorical pops remain in play.

With respect to ptype on Friday... The combination of the somewhat
slower arrival of the precip and the steady warm air advection
regime should result in the bulk of the precipitation falling in
the form of plain rain across the majority of the region... With
just a brief localized potential for some spotty light freezing
rain or sleet across interior sections at the onset. At this
point the best potential for such appears to lie across the
north country... Though again even here this should be rather
brief and localized... And therefore not enough for a winter
weather advisory at the present time.

As for temperatures... The ongoing steady warming of our airmass
should result in highs climbing into the lower to mid 40s across
areas east of lake ontario Friday... While the remainder of the
region should see readings warm into the mid to upper 40s.

Short term Friday night through Sunday night
The main large scale feature for the weekend will be the evolution
of the upper level low that is moving south into the northern
sierras and great basin. This feature will spawn a surface low in
typical lee cyclogenesis fashion over the western plains by Saturday
morning. The low will continue to deepen as is moves NE across lake
superior Sunday morning. While this will be an impressive system
from a synoptic point of view, it doesn't appear to have extreme
characteristics worthy of local extreme effects - namely excessive
high winds for wny. Here's a breakdown of timing and impacts for
the weekend:
Friday night... A low will be moving ene across S central quebec with
any leftover rain quickly moving east into northern ny and new
england. This will leave wny and cny dry for most if not all of the
night.

Saturday... Expect a dry start as high pressure north of the region
moves east. From a profile stand viewpoint, there should be some
cirrus and possibly some low clouds overhead with a dry layer in
between at the start of the day. Warm air advection moving toward
the pa line will increase moisture within the dry layer in the
afternoon. This may may finally saturate the column over the
southern tier, perhaps N toward the thruway by the end of the day.

Will leave a chance of rain in the forecast, although current model
qpf appears to be overdone when considering the profile forecasts.

Saturday night... This is where there is high confidence for
measurable precipitation for all areas, moving in from sw-ne across
all of wny overnight. Mixed precipitation or just freezing rain is
a concern for the st lawrence valley overnight with at least
initially a supply of subfreezing air from downstream on a NE flow
sneaking in under the warmer air aloft, but this should change over
to rain by Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts should be highest from
about kbuf through kfzy with over 0.5", but less to the south and
east.

Another impact may be downslope winds NW of the chautauqua ridge and
tug hill. These winds often have a hard time mixing to the surface
while its raining though. Localized advisory level winds are at
least possible however.

Finally, on Sunday... The main impact will be a high wind
potential. While a deepening... Sub 980mb low will be some 500
miles to our northwest and will be taking a more northerly track
than is climatologically favorable for damaging winds across
our region... Other parameters will come into play that will
favor strong damaging winds. To start with... H85 winds in the
wake of a strong cold will be in the neighborhood of 50 knots.

While these winds will be weaker than those found ahead of
front... Forecast soundings suggest a three hour window of strong
subsidence and lapse rates exceeding 8 deg c km that should
allow most of this wind to mix to the surface. Both of these
parameters will come together during the midday hours at the
peak heating of the day... And with the bulk of the guidance
packages suggesting significant clearing... Very efficient mixing
should be present. While this scenario is similar to that from
march of 2017... Winds will not be as strong aloft when the
parent low was closer to our region. That being said... Feel that
the niagara frontier will experience at least advisory criteria
winds... If not low end high wind warning criteria a solid
possibility. Have issued a high wind watch for the four counties
of the iag frontier to cover this risk... Which should be
exacerbated by a thawed surface (frost depth at kbuf now zero).

This would more easily allow for shallow rooted trees to come
down.

Finally of note will be temperatures, which should briefly spike
into the 50s across wny. However, unlike the recent warmup, there
will likely only be a tiny window between the ending rain and
imminent winds for one to enjoy the spring conditions.

Sunday night will be uneventful in comparison, with a relaxing wind
field and temperatures dropping back to normal with continued cold
air advection and a drying airmass.

Long term Monday through Thursday
High pressure will drift across the region to start the work week
with temperatures running above climo(+5f - +10f), with daily highs
in the 40s and nighttime lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Precipitation chances will increase into Thursday as a wave ejects
from the four corners region to the great lakes.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
Tonight a mix of ifr to MVFR ceilings will persist south of
lake ontario... While mainly clear skies will be found at kart
and kgtb. During the course of the night... The low level flow will
veer more to the south-southeast and this will encourage any ifr
cigs outside of the southern tier to lift to at least MVFR levels.

On Friday... The aforementioned warm front will lift northward
across our region... While also spreading rain and lower ceilings
across the area from southwest to northeast. This will result in
flight conditions lowering to mostly ifr across the higher terrain...

and to MVFR across the lower elevations. At the onset of the rain...

some very brief localized freezing rain or sleet cannot be ruled
out away from the TAF sites (with the greatest potential for this
lying across the north country)... Though at this point the chances
for such still appear to be pretty low.

Finally... Since the kjhw observation has not been reporting (or
reporting very inconsistently)... We have continued with a rarely
used nil TAF for kjhw. Safety concerns have played a major role in
this decision... Especially given the continued potential for
low erratic ceilings at this particular site.

Outlook...

Friday night... Gradual improvement to MVFRVFR with any lingering
rain showers ending. Some llws possible.

Saturday...VFR MVFR with additional periods of rain developing...

which may be mixed with a little snow or freezing rain across the
north country at the onset. Llws also becoming likely.

Sunday... Rain ending with improvement toVFR... Though also turning
rather windy.

Monday... MainlyVFR.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR... With a chance of rain snow showers across
the north country.

Marine
Moderate northeasterlies across the lower lakes region will veer
to easterly and then southeasterly tonight as high pressure over
southern ontario quebec slides eastward to maine and the canadian
maritimes. At this point... Winds and waves are still expected to
remain below advisory levels through tonight.

On Friday winds will veer further to southerly (and increase a bit
on lake ontario) as low pressure passes by to our northwest... Though
the offshore orientation will help to keep the highest waves confined
to canadian waters.

In the wake of this system... High pressure will briefly build back
across the lower great lakes on Saturday... Before a strong area of
low pressure tracks northeastward across the great lakes on Sunday.

This latter system should bring at least a round of higher end
advisory-worthy conditions... With gale force winds possible.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... High wind watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
for nyz001-002-010-011-085.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jjr rsh
near term... Jjr rsh
short term... Rsh zaff
long term... Church
aviation... Jjr rsh
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 31 mi80 min E 2.9 G 9.9 32°F 1036.9 hPa (+0.3)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 39 mi50 min 32°F 1036.9 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 49 mi50 min E 6 G 12 35°F 1035.5 hPa28°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY35 mi27 minE 1010.00 miOvercast34°F27°F76%1038.2 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N5N7N7N7N10NE8NE6NE8NE5NE6E6E8NE9E9E9NE9E10NE11E9NE10NE10E11E10
1 day agoS10S12S13SW16
G23
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NW9N17N12N13NW10NW9W13W11NW9NW6W5CalmCalmN3
2 days agoSW6SW13SW9SW8SW8S6S8S11SW9SW15SW14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.