Friday, May26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Barker, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:44PM Friday May 26, 2017 1:36 AM EDT (05:36 UTC) Moonrise 5:42AMMoonset 8:44PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ062 Lake Ontario Open Waters From The Niagara River To Hamlin Beach- 1007 Pm Edt Thu May 25 2017
Overnight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Patchy fog. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Patchy fog through early afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ062 Expires:201705260915;;210672 FZUS61 KBUF 260207 GLFLO OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE ONTARIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1007 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE ONTARIO WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. .SYNOPSIS...A 29.4 INCH LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM NEW JERSEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WEAK 29.9 INCH HIGH WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...BEFORE A 29.6 INCH LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER SUNDAY AND NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOZ062-260915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Barker, NY
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location: 43.55, -78.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 260249
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1049 pm edt Thu may 25 2017

Synopsis
An upper level low will track just to the south of the region
overnight and Friday, maintaining cool, cloudy conditions with
scattered light rain showers. Temperatures will moderate back to
normal for the weekend, though there will remain a chance for a
shower early Saturday, and then more widespread showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm later Sunday and Sunday night.

Near term through Friday
A closed upper low will move into southern new england overnight.

Meanwhile latest surface analysis shows a broad surface low
reflections loosely centered across eastern pennsylvania. There
are spotty showers and some drizzle across western new york,
which will continue overnight. As the surface low passes, a
subtle northerly flow will mix two already moist air masses with
lots of low level moisture and some fog likely to develop south
of lake ontario late this evening.

Tomorrow the surface low will become better organized off the mid-
atlantic coastline, though a surface trough will linger westward
behind this low. Within this trough, and under a west to northwest
flow will remain chances for a few sprinkles light rain showers
through the day Friday. As the deeper moisture slides eastward
tomorrow the light shower activity will end through the day.

Temperatures will remain nearly steady tonight under the thick
cloud cover with lows in the lower to mid 50s. With the upper
level trough still overhead, highs tomorrow will only rebound
back to the low to mid 60s.

Short term Friday night through Sunday night
Weak surface-based ridging will slide eastward into our region from
the central great lakes and ohio valley Friday night and Saturday.

In addition, heights aloft will build over the region as shortwave
ridge pushes east into the region. A wave embedded within the
northern edge will slide across the region with the possibility of a
few stray showers Friday night and Saturday morning with the
southern tier having the best chance to see any measurable
precipitation. The arrival of somewhat drier air behind the wave
from mid day through the afternoon should help to bring some partial
sunshine. Weak warm air advection and sunshine should allow
afternoon highs to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Surface and upper ridging remains over the area for much of Saturday
night. Lead wave ahead of main upper trough will drop into the great
lakes as associated surface wave moves into the ohio valley. For the
most part Saturday night will be dry, before the leading edge of
some scattered shower activity returns to far western sections
toward Sunday morning.

Latest models continuing to highlight the Sunday and Sunday time
frame with increasing chances for showers and embedded
thunderstorms, as the deepen trough moves in from the west. Models
remaining inconsistent on timing, but with the combination of
falling heights and warm air advection on the eastern flank we
should see showers and embedded thunderstorms fill in during the
day, especially by afternoon and continuing into Sunday night.

Temperatures look to remain above average with highs in the lower to
mid 70s Sunday followed by lows in the mid to upper 50s Sunday night.

Long term Monday through Thursday
For much of next week a large upper level low will slowly meander its
way across the great lakes and southern canada. As a result
temperatures will trend from slightly above normal values Monday
(highs in the low 70s ) to slightly below normal values by mid-week
(highs in the 60s). Several shortwaves embedded in the general
cyclonic flow will support numerous opportunities for scattered
showers across the region, with a few embedded thunderstorms also
possible with the steep lapse rates aloft.

Aviation 03z Friday through Tuesday
Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate further tonight.

Ifr conditions are already quite prevalent south of lake ontario at
02z TAF and as the weak surface low passes to the south a light
northerly flow will cause upsloping and mix two already moist
air masses resulting in very moist boundary layer conditions.

Ifr or lower conditions are expected south of lake ontario at
buf iag roc jhw, with lifr vlifr conditions possible in very low
cigs and fog later tonight. This trend is indicated by forecast
bufkit soundings, and supported by hrrr and MOS guidance.

Otherwise, there will be some light showers or drizzle lingering
overnight, but this will have little impact on flight
conditions.

Friday, with a still light westerly flow flight conditions will
slowly improve back to MVFR with daytime mixing and deeper moisture
exits to the east. This is likely to be a slow process, with ifr
conditions likely to linger through most (if not all) of the
morning hours south of lake ontario.

Outlook...

Friday night... MVFRVFR with isolated showers.

Saturday... MainlyVFR. Chc of showers early to the west.

Sunday... Mainly MVFR with showers likely.

Monday and Tuesday... MVFRVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
An easterly wind will continue across lake ontario this
evening with small craft advisory worthy waves and winds on the
far western shoreline. Otherwise an upper level low will track
across lake erie and to the south of lake ontario overnight and
tomorrow. Winds will relax under this feature and this will
allow for the SCA to end overnight.

Tides coastal flooding
Low pressure will track from pennsylvania to southern new
england. Winds have diminished this evening, but there are waves
up to 5 ft across western portions of lake ontario so we kept
the lakeshore flood warning up for now with this set to expire
at 2 am.

Climate
Buffalo has exceeded the daily precipitation record of 1.21
inches established in 1874. Rochester is close to a recorded
rainfall, while the rain continues across watertown. Daily
record rainfall for rochester is 1.74 inches set back in 1943
and watertown's record for today is 1.13 inches set back in
1979. With rain continuing east of lake ontario, and possible
showers across buffalo and rochester final daily totals be known
after the climatic day (1 am edt to 1 am edt) ends.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood warning until 2 am edt Friday for nyz001>003.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Friday for loz042.

Synopsis... Apffel thomas
near term... Apffel thomas
short term... Tma
long term... Church
aviation... Apffel thomas
marine... Apffel thomas
tides coastal flooding... Hitchcock wood apffel thomas
climate... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 16 mi37 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 47°F 1001.4 hPa (+0.7)
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax 25 mi97 min E 7.8 G 7.8 49°F 45°F3 ft1000.3 hPa (+90.0)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 31 mi37 min ENE 1.9 G 5.1 52°F 1000.3 hPa (+0.3)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 39 mi49 min 55°F 1001.1 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 49 mi49 min SW 7 G 8.9 54°F 1000.3 hPa54°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY35 mi44 minSW 60.25 miFog57°F53°F87%1000.5 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6E7E7E8E8E7E8E8E9E12E7E7E11E11--NE7NE13E10E6E6E44SW6SW6
1 day agoE7E4E3E5CalmE5E3SE8SE9E11SE14E8S12
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NE7E10SE5SW6CalmSE12E7E6SE18
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2 days agoS5SW4--S4S6S5S8SW13SW11SW12SW12SW12SW11SW85SW3CalmN3N8NE7E6E6E5E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.