Friday, February15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Scar, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 5:12PM Friday February 15, 2019 2:54 PM EST (19:54 UTC) Moonrise 1:43PMMoonset 4:10AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 247 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 pm est this evening...
Tonight..S winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of rain this evening.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of snow showers in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ100 247 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A cold front crosses the gulf of maine tonight. Canadian high pressure building eastward through Sunday. Low pressure may track south of cape cod on Monday. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Scar, ME
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location: 43.56, -70.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 151544
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
1044 am est Fri feb 15 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will pass north of the region today bringing
mostly rain near the coast and mostly snow to the mountains. A
cold front will drop south through the region tonight. A
secondary cold front pushes through on Saturday. High pressure
builds in from the west through Sunday. Weak low pressure will
pass well out to sea Sunday night and Monday. Weak high
pressure will build in from the west Monday night and Tuesday.

A frontal system will move from the deep south Wednesday with
secondary cyclogenesis occurring along the mid atlantic coast.

Near term today
1045am update...

minor adjustments based on latest observed temperatures and
precipitation. Area of precipitation moving through new
hampshire is mostly snow but with warming temperatures
especially in southern areas where some rain is observed. Expect
precipitation to intensify a bit as it moves into maine.

830am update...

have updated the forecast primarily to adjust timing of arrival
of precipitation, temperatures, and issue a winter weather
advisory for northwest maine where storm total snow
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected. Precipitation has
been slow to arrive this morning but expect it to expand and
intensify over the next few hours as more moisture is pulled
into the system. With an inverted low level atmospheric profile
and a southeast wind into the terrain, expect some cold air
damming in interior southwest maine which will hold temperatures
down until the wind shifts later this evening. However, the
later we go without precipitation the greater chance there will
be that the low levels will be more mixed and thus prevent the
dam from forming. For the most part we are looking for snow
changing to rain but there could be some areas of sleet and
freezing rain where damming persists.

725 am update...

precipitation has now developed over eastern ny with top down
saturation occurring slowly this morning. Observation sites at
the surface are not reporting any snow or rain over vt yet... But
expect this to occur shortly. Timing of precipitation looks
good with temperatures gradually warming.

Original discussion...

water vapor imagery over the region shows increasing moisture
from the west in the form of thickening and lowering cloud
cover. Light radar returns over new hampshire should not be
reaching the ground yet with a dry airmass still hanging on. As
the surface cyclone nears, it lifts north of the international
border spreading precipitation across the area in the warm
sector. We should see some snow everywhere to start, but as the
warm air arrives quickly during the day, areas along the coast
and the coastal plain will change to rain with the foothills
eventually teetering between rain and snow. Storm total snows
will range from almost nothing along the coast to around 4" for
the higher peaks where snow will hang on. The notches and mount
washington will have higher totals.

Towards this evening a fine line will arrive as the pre-frontal
trough moves through. Have tried to depict this in the pops with
a break in between the two shots of heavier precipitation. Some
of the higher peaks will see storm total QPF amounts close to
0.75" while downeast maine will see some totals between
0.50-0.75'. The latter will fall mostly as rain. Good mixing
will result in gusty winds, with some gusts to near 35 mph
expected for the coast.

After a very cold start for the mountains, and with this in mind
have tried to show a gradual but not quick transition to warmer
temps there as is usually the case. We should ultimately see a
good recovery today into the lower to mid 30s north, with
southern areas reaching the lower to mid 40s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday night
The precipitation should mostly be out of here by midnight
tonight, ending sooner for central and southern nh and central
maine. Skies will clear out too with overnight lows dropping
into the lower 20s to upper 20s.

Saturday should be partly sunny to mostly sunny for the southern
two-thirds of the region with clouds redeveloping over the
mountains as a cold front moves through. This will introduce
better upslope flow and some light snow showers for the higher
terrain. We won't see much of a diurnal range across the north
where highs will peak in the mid to perhaps upper 20s. Farther
south mid to upper 30s are forecast with the additional
sunshine.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
Ensemble and deterministic model solutions are in decent
agreement on the long wave pattern through late next week. The
upper ridge will rebuild just off the west coast with a deep
trough over much of the CONUS with the exception of the southeast
where a flat ridge will develop early in the period. A cold start
to the period as the door is wide open for cold air to pour
southward into new england. High pressure and quiet weather should
be the rule through the middle of next week as the mean jet
position and storm track remain suppressed to our south. For late
next week... The ridge and rising heights over the southeast conus
will nudge the storm track further north leading to increasingly
unsettled weather along with a slow warming trend.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
Short term... MVFR ifr ceilings developing later this morning,
and lingering into this evening. Coastal terminals could see se
gusts to 25 kts this afternoon. Wind shear aloft is sufficient
to include at coastal sites as well.

Long term...

no significant operational impacts expected for the period.

Marine
Short term... Gales will develop this morning and continue into
this evening for penobscot bay and the outer waters. Casco bay
will remain in a small craft advisory.

Long term...

sun am... Scas psb outside the bays.

Tue... Scas psb outside the bays.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Winter weather advisory until 11 pm est this evening for
mez007>009.

Nh... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 pm est this evening for anz153.

Gale warning until 11 pm est this evening for anz150>152-154.

Synopsis...

near term... Kimble
short term... Hanes
long term... Schwibs
aviation...

marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 7 mi60 min 41°F 34°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 8 mi64 min SSE 23 G 29 41°F 37°F8 ft1006.9 hPa (-5.9)40°F
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 21 mi114 min S 6 39°F 39°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 22 mi54 min SSW 14 G 19 41°F 35°F1007 hPa (-6.4)
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 27 mi110 min SSE 23 G 29 41°F 38°F9 ft1007.5 hPa
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 45 mi129 min SE 5.1 40°F 1009 hPa39°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 45 mi54 min SSE 35 G 40 43°F 1005.2 hPa (-7.0)43°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME7 mi63 minSSE 12 G 195.00 miFog/Mist40°F39°F97%1007.7 hPa

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Richmond Island, Maine
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Richmond Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:05 AM EST     1.00 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:09 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:25 AM EST     9.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:57 PM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:12 PM EST     8.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.42.64.46.58.39.29.18.26.54.32.10.70.20.72.1467.58.17.96.853

Tide / Current Tables for Portland Head Light, Maine
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Portland Head Light
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:06 AM EST     0.99 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:09 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:26 AM EST     9.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:58 PM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:13 PM EST     8.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.42.54.46.48.29.198.16.44.22.10.70.20.723.95.97.48.17.86.853

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.