Wednesday, October17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Scar, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:55PM Wednesday October 17, 2018 6:25 AM EDT (10:25 UTC) Moonrise 2:46PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 244 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
.gale warning in effect from this afternoon through Thursday evening...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ100 244 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Another strong cold front will cross the waters late this afternoon. West southwest winds will sharply increase and shift northwesterly behind the front. Winds continue to increase in cold air advection overnight and into Thursday. High pressure will arrive from the west during the day Thursday and Thursday night with winds and waves gradually subsiding. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Scar, ME
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location: 43.56, -70.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 170723
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
323 am edt Wed oct 17 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the region today and a strong northwest
flow will set up over the region behind the front tonight and
Thursday. A ridge of high pressure will build in from the west
Thursday night and will shift offshore on Friday. A cold front
will approach from the west Friday night and will cross the
region on Saturday. Another strong northwest flow will set up
over the region behind the front Saturday night and Sunday. High
pressure will build in from the west Sunday night.

Near term through today
Early this morning much of the forecast area will be in the left
exit region of a near stationary jet streak. Already seeing the
cold clouds tops expanding in coverage... And this will continue
aid in some weak mid level frontogenesis as a strong cold front
approaches. Regional radars show reflectivity blossoming a
bit... But not seeing any reports of precip at ground level.

Still expect that eventually some of this reaches the ground
with sustained forcing thru 8 am. Basically some light snow or
rain showers... But no accumulations are expected outside of the
highest terrain.

Then focus turns to the cold front. Hi-res guidance is showing a
window between noon and 4 pm that the boundary crosses the
forecast area. It is strong enough that some convection is
possible along the leading edge. Would not be totally surprised
if some of these had a clap of thunder or put down some
graupel... Given how cold the trailing air mass is... But I do not
feel the threat is widespread enough to include thunder in the
grids. Breezy wsw winds will shift sharply and increase behind
the front. With the convection could see a couple gusts in
excess of 40 mph... But generally expecting afternoon gusts in
the 25-35 mph range.

Short term tonight through 6 pm Thursday
Strongest CAA arrives tonight as main trof axis passes the
region. Wind MAX does not look quite as strong as last
night... But some hi-res guidance does have a pocket of h8 winds
around 50 kts early thu. That could bring another period of
advisory to near-advisory level wind gusts. Seeing as how
confidence is not quite high enough on areal extent and strength
of wind gusts... No advisory planned at this time. Strong caa
continues right thru the day thu... So gusty NW winds will
continue into the afternoon.

With CAA dominating the 24 hours... I generally used mixed down
temps or raw 2 m temps from guidance for temp trends. While
widespread 30s are expected tonight... And will feel much
colder... The well mixed environment will keep active growing
zones generally at or above 32 degrees. The real hard freeze and
end of the growing season looks to be Thu night. Thu afternoon
h8 temps remain fairly consistent on guidance... Approaching -10
c. This is consistent with high temps struggling out of the 30s
for most areas. A strong downslope component to the wind
direction may allow a few mid 40s... But otherwise it will be a
raw day. Not quite record cold high temps... But close to them.

Finally there will be snow. While higher elevations prior to the
cold front may see some snow... Snow levels come crashing down
behind the front and thru thu. And while the air mass is
continental in origin... Abundant stratocu on IR satellite shows
evidence of low level moisture. That forced up and over the
mtns will wring out snow showers. With strong caa... The profile
is favorable for upslope showers to freely move downwind... And
forecast froude number will above 1 support that. While I do not
expect any accumulation S of the mtns... This set up could mean
some foothills towns see their first flakes of the year. In the
higher elevations and upstream of the mtns where snow showers
will be most persistent... Some light accumulations are likely.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Winds will gradually subside Thursday night as surface ridge axis
crosses the region. Warm front lifting by to the north will
spill variable high and mid level clouds into the region
overnight but expect any precip to remain north of the border in
better dynamics. Lows will range from the upper teens to lower
20s north and lower to mid 20s in the south.

Return flow will bring warmer air back into the region on Friday
under a mix of Sun and clouds. Highs will range through the 40s
north and lower to mid 50s south.

Next shortwave will approach from the west Friday night.

Looking for increasing clouds and a chance of showers after
midnight as an associated cold front pushes into western new york
by Saturday morning. Lows will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Cold front will cross the region on Saturday and will push
offshore by Saturday evening. Expect mostly cloudy skies with
occasional showers for the bulk of the day. Highs will range from
the mid 40s to the mid 50s.

Increasing northwest flow behind the front will usher in
another shot of cool canadian air Saturday night. Upper trough
swinging in from the west and increasing upslope flow will
combine with low level moisture in the mountains for snow
showers overnight and into Sunday morning. Not looking for a lot
in the way of QPF but an inch or two of accumulation not out of
the question... Especially over higher terrain. Lows overnight
will range through the 30s.

Upper trough axis will shift east Sunday morning and mountains
snow showers will taper off by afternoon. Remainder of the forecast
area will see a mix of Sun and clouds. Highs will range from the
mid 30s to lower 40s north and mid to upper 40s south.

Ridge of high pressure will build in from the west Sunday night.

Expect partly cloudy skies overnight with lows ranging through
the 20s to near 30.

High pressure will shift offshore on Monday and a weak warm front
will lift into the region from the west. Forcing along this
boundary will be rather limited and will likely go with low chance
pops for showers mainly in northwest zones. Highs Monday will
range from the mid 30s north to the mid 40s south.

Warm front will generally stall over the area Monday night as
shortwave approaches from the west. Strengthening over-running
may result in snow or mixed precipitation in northern zones after
midnight and a chance of showers elsewhere.

Aviation 07z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term...VFR conditions are expected to dominate thru thu
with dry... Offshore flow. A weak S WV trof passing tonight
followed by prolonged upslope flow will likely keep hie with
MVFR cigs... And possibly an isolated shsn and local ifr or lower
conditions tonight into thu. A strong cold front will cross the
area late this afternoon... Between 18-21z... And winds will begin
to increase around this time. Gusts to 25 kts possible at all
terminals this afternoon... Followed by NW gusts in excess of 30
kts early thu.

Long term...

vfr Thursday night through Friday night.VFR with areas of MVFR
ceilings in showers on Saturday.VFR Saturday night with areas
of MVFR ifr ceilings vsby in snow showers north into Sunday
morning. BecomingVFR Sunday afternoon.

Marine
Short term... Gale watch has been converted to gale warning for
all waters. Cold front looks set to cross the coastal waters
late this afternoon... With a line of squalls possible. Winds
increase behind the front... And will continue to increase as caa
becomes stronger overnight. As high pressure moves in late
thu... Winds and seas will gradually diminish... But gale force
wind gusts may linger thru the day.

Long term...

sca's may be needed on Friday into Friday night. Gales possible
Saturday night and Sunday.

Equipment
Kgyx radar will remain down through this morning due to
equipment failure. Expected return to service is this afternoon.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... Gale watch from this evening through Thursday afternoon for
anz150>154.

Legro sinsabaugh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 7 mi37 min 56°F1011.9 hPa
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 8 mi35 min SW 14 G 16 48°F 55°F2 ft1011.7 hPa (-1.5)39°F
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 21 mi85 min WSW 4.1 42°F 35°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 22 mi37 min W 1.9 G 5.1 41°F 54°F1012.7 hPa
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 27 mi81 min WSW 12 G 16 49°F 56°F1 ft1012.5 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 45 mi85 min WSW 15 G 16 48°F 1012.8 hPa (-1.2)41°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 45 mi100 min SSW 1 39°F 39°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME7 mi34 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast41°F34°F76%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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W10W10W6CalmCalmSW5SW7SW5--CalmCalmSW3SW6SW5
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2 days agoSW3W6W4W5W5NW5Calm6SW6SW10W5W6SW4SW5W3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond Island, Maine
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Richmond Island
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Wed -- 06:12 AM EDT     7.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:08 PM EDT     2.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:21 PM EDT     8.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.62.94.66.27.37.87.66.65.13.62.522.33.34.96.57.88.48.37.45.842.5

Tide / Current Tables for Portland Head Light, Maine
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Portland Head Light
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:13 AM EDT     7.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:09 PM EDT     1.99 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:22 PM EDT     8.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.62.84.56.17.37.87.56.65.13.52.522.23.24.86.47.78.38.27.35.842.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.