Tuesday, April25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Grove, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 7:48PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 9:31 AM CDT (14:31 UTC) Moonrise 5:43AMMoonset 6:54PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 853 Am Cdt Tue Apr 25 2017
Rest of today..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Sunny mid and late morning then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight. Slight chance of showers through around midnight, then chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the evening, then building to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Wednesday..South wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight. Rain showers likely through the night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
LMZ643 Expires:201704252215;;243219 FZUS53 KMKX 251353 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 853 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ643-252215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Grove, WI
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location: 43.58, -87.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 251143
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi
643 am cdt Tue apr 25 2017

Update
Aviation(12z tafs) Vfr conditions today followed by showers
developing tonight for S wi. Best chances for rain over south
central wi with lesser chances to far eastern wi.VFR conditions
early this evening with CIGS falling to 1-3 kft late tonight. MVFR
vsbys will be possible with the rain.

Prev discussion (issued 348 am cdt Tue apr 25 2017)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is high.

A shortwave trough will move newd across the state this morning
but with only few-sct high clouds over the area. For the afternoon
another shortwave trough will track from N ia to N wi with some
pva to move across S wi. Went with only slight chance of showers
well west and north of madison. Otherwise mostly sunny skies this
morning will become mostly cloudy but with more uncertainty in the
cloud cover to the east. Despite some clouds believe there will
still be enough heating for middle 70s inland from lake mi
especially with mild temps to start the day.

For tnt, low pressure will develop along a n-s sfc trough from the
srn great plains to SW wi. The low will be near the wi, ia, mn
border around 12z wed. Moisture transport on a 35 kt sly LLJ and
weak vorticity maximums within swly flow aloft will bring light to
moderate rain at times to south central wi but more sct in the
east.

Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A broad upper trough will sit over the western CONUS while an
amplified, negatively tilted upper shortwave ejects and pushes
through the midwest. Meanwhile, a surface low pressure center will
slowly pass just to our northwest Wednesday morning. Gfs, euro, and
nam all suggest that we will remain in the warm sector through at
least 00z Thursday, which will allow dewpoints to reach into the
upper 50s, and potentially into the 60s. Both the GFS and NAM show
pwats reaching 1.5" by Wednesday afternoon, which exceeds the
daily maximum value by 0.4" on the SPC sounding climatology for
dvn.

While precipitation is a near certainty, questions remain regarding
the convective potential for this system. First of all, with the low
just to our west at 12z, it looks like precip will be ongoing in the
morning. The evolution of the morning precipitation will play a
large role in how the afternoon develops. Additionally, it is likely
that we will be stuck under overcast skies through the day, limiting
instability. However, the system dynamics are quite strong, with 0-6
km bulk shear in the 40-50 kt range, and 0-1 km bulk shear close to
25 kts. If enough instability can build in, the lift, moisture, and
wind shear would support a severe weather threat. SPC day 2 outlook
has a marginal risk across our se, which is reasonable given the
limited nature of the instability.

Aside from the potential severe threat, there are also concerns with
heavy rain. The extreme pwat values mentioned earlier mean the
atmosphere will be primed for heavy rain production. It looks like
we'll see at least 1" across much of the area, with locally higher
amounts likely.

Long term...

Thursday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is low.

Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place until the western
conus trough mentioned in the last section finally moves through
the region toward the end of the weekend. There is poor model
consensus with regards to the surface pattern for the end of the
work week, with the GFS and canadian bringing another weak low
through while the euro builds high pressure into the region.

Guidance actually comes back into decent consensus for the end of
the weekend as another strong low pressure system develops ahead
of the upper trough. Another prolonged period of precipitation is
expected from Saturday through Monday.

Aviation(06z tafs)...

vfr conditions are expected through Tuesday. Mid and high level
clouds will move across the area at times through tomorrow. Models
backing off on the potential for fog near lake michigan later
tonight into Tuesday morning as higher dewpoints are slower to
arrive.

Marine...

modest sely winds will prevail today into Wed nt with waves of 2
to 4 feet.

Mkx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Gehring
today/tonight and aviation/marine... Gehring
Wednesday through Monday... Bsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 13 mi51 min SSE 5.1 G 6 48°F 1007.5 hPa
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 14 mi31 min S 7 G 8 45°F 1006.5 hPa (+0.0)42°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 37 mi41 min SE 14 G 16 47°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan, Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI14 mi38 minSSE 12 G 1810.00 miFair53°F46°F77%1006.4 hPa
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI18 mi36 minSSE 810.00 miFair57°F46°F67%1005.4 hPa

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S8S9SE9SE8--S9
G17
S12S6SE7SE3S3E3CalmCalmE7SE8S5S5SE6S5S5S10S12
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1 day agoW6NE19NE17NE19
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NE18NE15NE19NE17NE15NE14NE13NE11NE9NE9NE9NE9NE9NE7NE5NE3CalmS6S7
2 days agoNE533N5CalmS44SE6S8S6S4S5SW3SW5SW4SW5SW6SW6SW5SW6SW6SW6SW6SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.