Friday, July21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Grove, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:26PM Friday July 21, 2017 5:42 PM CDT (22:42 UTC) Moonrise 3:39AMMoonset 6:50PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 500 Pm Cdt Fri Jul 21 2017
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight. Showers likely through around midnight. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing southwest after midnight. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..West wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ643 Expires:201707220415;;614480 FZUS53 KMKX 212200 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 500 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ643-220415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Grove, WI
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location: 43.58, -87.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 212041
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
341 pm cdt Fri jul 21 2017

Short term
Rest of today and tonight Forecast confidence medium.

Removed marquette co from the flash flood watch since the axis
of heavy rainfall has shifted south. Heavy rain is the main
concern with the greatest threat across far southern wi. Rainfall
with isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue across
southern wi. The low level jet has strengthened to around 35 knots
pointing into southwest wi where the 850 baroclinic zone is
located. Models show the LLJ strengthening to 40 knots this
evening when moisture transport is maximized. See hydrology
section for more info.

The surface boundary and outflow is across iowa and northern
illinois. Activity has fired up north of this boundary but this
activity will likely end up south of wi. CAPE and shear will
increase this evening so we'll have to see if anything can fire
upstream in minnesota this evening. If it does, we can still
expect some severe weather.

After midnight the low level jet pivots to the east and slides south
of the state. Pws drop as this forcing leaves the region and precip
should wind down during this time.

Saturday Forecast confidence medium.

Pws decrease slightly early Saturday morning but remain high, around
1.5, during the day. Low pressure will move along the wi il border
on Saturday. Not too excited and thunderstorm chances tomorrow. Cold
air advection will be in place and the low level thermal boundary
will have shifted south of the state. There will be some surface
convergence after it moves through. CAPE looks to be over 1000-2000j
with 35-40 knots of shear so if something get going we could see
some isolated severe storms.

Long term
Sunday through Thursday Forecast confidence high
small chances for thunderstorms linger into Sunday with a shortwave
moving through. Most areas will be dry. High pressure will sink into
the region bringing dry weather Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures
will also be cooler with less humidity on northwest winds. Tuesday
night surface low pressure will move across southern canada
dragging a cold front and some precip with thunderstorm possible.

Behind this system high pressure will briefly nudge in. Low
pressure will approach from the southwest later in the week and a
baroclinic zone will be draped southwest of the state. This
system has potential to bring more rain to southwest wi later in
the week. Beyond this it looks like high pressure will set
bringing quiet weather.

Aviation(21z tafs)
Showers with a few lightning strikes will continue to move across
southeast wi. Another batch of showers with heavy rain at times
will move in this evening. Thunderstorms are possible during this
time. MainlyVFR conditions are expected through tonight, except
for with thunderstorms. Fog is likely again tonight with weak
winds and plenty of moisture in place. MVFR or lower ceilings will
develop over central wi Saturday morning and sag toward southern
wi.

Marine
Showers are expected through the night. Fog is possible after
midnight. Thunderstorm chances increase this evening with strong
winds the main threat. North winds will increase Sunday night and
Monday but are expected to remain below small craft levels.

Hydrology
12z dvn sounding showed pw of 1.9 with a freezing level of 14kft.

This is a favorable environment for efficient rainfall. The GFS and
nam show values up to 2.5 this evening. This is when moisture
transport is maximized on a 40 knot jet. A 850 baroclinic zones lies
across southwest wi with mean layer from out of the west. Forward
propagating corfidi vectors of 20 knots are parallel to this
boundary and flow allowing for training storms. Wpc precip
discussion notes the info is nearly double the mean wind which may
lead to backbuilding. The question is where this will set up,
closer to the surface boundary, the 850 boundary, or somewhere in
between.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Flash flood watch through Saturday morning for wiz056>058-
062>072.

Lm... None.

Tonight Saturday and aviation marine... Marquardt
Saturday night through Friday... Marquardt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 13 mi63 min S 6 G 8 73°F 1014.9 hPa
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 14 mi43 min S 13 G 13 71°F 1013 hPa (-0.5)69°F
45013 33 mi64 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 71°F 1013.6 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 37 mi33 min S 4.1 G 5.1 70°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI14 mi50 minSSE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F69°F77%1013.4 hPa
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI18 mi68 minESE 710.00 miLight Drizzle73°F71°F94%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6NW3SW4CalmS3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS7S8S10SW5SW4SE3
1 day agoE3SE3W4SW7S30
G37
CalmW6W9W7W11
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SW8W4W5W4NW6NW9W6NW8W7NW6NW5NW7W8NW9
2 days agoS13S5S5W7SW7SW3W9W5W7NW4S3CalmN5N5N7NE9NE10NE9NE6NE7E7E7NE6E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.