Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Youngs, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 8:15PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 9:50 PM EDT (01:50 UTC) Moonrise 2:30PMMoonset 3:24AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 1039 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
Rest of today..Light and variable winds. Patchy fog. Occasional rain.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog. Rain showers likely.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the morning.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of rain showers.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Becoming mainly clear.
LOZ030 Expires:201804252115;;480168 FZUS51 KBUF 251439 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1039 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ030-252115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Youngs, NY
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location: 43.61, -79.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 260021
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
821 pm edt Wed apr 25 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will move northeastward across new england tonight and
into the canadian maritimes on Thursday. Lingering showers behind
this system tonight will give way to drier weather from west to east
on Thursday as high pressure and drier air builds across the lower
great lakes. Two more weak systems will then bring additional
periods of rain showers Friday and Saturday.

Near term through Thursday
Tonight a modest shortwave trough along the mid atlantic coast and a
much stronger shortwave compact closed low over southern ontario
will gradually merge and consolidate across new york state... While
supporting the continued gradual deepening of an attendant surface
low tracking from the mid atlantic coastline into new england. On
the backside of this system... The combination of a westerly to
northwesterly cyclonic upslope flow of cooler air... Increasing
wraparound moisture... And lift attendant to the northern (and
stronger) trough will support relatively high probabilities of
additional rain showers across the bulk of our region... Save perhaps
for portions of far southwestern new york where activity should be
much more scattered. Otherwise... Moderately breezy conditions will
also develop across the region from west to east as the pressure
gradient tightens between the aforementioned low and high pressure
ridging eastward across the upper great lakes... Which should help
to largely scour out any patchy fog that is currently in place.

Meanwhile... Modest cool air advection will lead to overnight lows
ranging from the mid to upper 30s across the southern tier to the
lower 40s elsewhere.

On Thursday the surface low will exit northeastward across the
canadian maritimes as high pressure and much drier air builds
eastward from the ohio valley upper great lakes into western new
york. This will result in any lingering showers diminishing from
west to east through the course of the day... With the activity
hanging on the longest east of lake ontario due to the closer
proximity of the low and lingering upslope flow. Following the
departure of the showers... Increasing subsidence and drying
should lead to partly to mostly sunny skies developing across areas
south of lake ontario during the late morning and afternoon
hours... With some breaks of Sun reaching the north country by late
in the day. Otherwise a lingering pressure gradient will keep
breezy conditions in place... With afternoon highs expected to
mostly range through the 50s.

Short term Thursday night through Sunday
A weak ridge of high pressure will build into the eastern great
lakes on Thursday night with dry weather and clearing skies. Lows
will be in the mid to upper 30s in most locations.

Weak low pressure will track roughly from eastern virginia to
southern new england on Friday. There remains some model
disagreement on the exact track, with the GFS a bit further north
and wetter than most other model guidance. There is at least a
chance that showers will clip southern and eastern portions of the
cwa on Friday. Expect highs to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

By Friday evening a northern stream trough will approach western ny
which will result in a chance of showers for the rest of the area.

Increasing cold advection will drop temperatures back into the mid
to upper 30s for lows by late Friday night, with lower 40s east of
lake ontario.

This trough will usher in colder air and below normal temperatures
for the weekend. Model consensus has 850mb temperatures falling to -
8c as the core of the coldest air moves across the area Saturday
night. This is cold enough for some limited lake enhancement and
also to support snow showers where precipitation still lingers
Saturday night into Sunday. Showers will be light with little if any
accumulation, but this will be perhaps one last taste of winter
before the warm up next week. The forecast hedges below most mos
based guidance due to high forecast confidence in the cold airmass
and the likely lake enhanced cloud cover during much of the
weekend. Highs will only be in the 40s over the weekend, with
overnight lows near or below freezing on Saturday night.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
The anomalously cold upper-level trough will exit the region into the
canadian maritimes Sunday night and Monday. Meanwhile, building
500mb heights and an expansive surface high over the tennessee
valley will become centered along the carolinas which will initiate
a strong warning trend across our region. The surface high along the
carolinas will pump up a much warmer air mass into the ohio valley
and great lakes which will send high temperatures soaring some +15-
20f degrees above climo by Wednesday with mid-upper 70s, even a
few 80f readings. Late in the week, latest guidance shows a
potent shortwave dropping southeast out of canada across the
great lakes while several waves ride northeast along a frontal
boundary to our west. This will likely bring increasing chances
for showers Thursday and Friday. Otherwise, look for relatively
quite weather the first half of the week with dry conditions and
more like summer.

Aviation 01z Thursday through Monday
Low pressure over new jersey will lift northeastward into new
england tonight and then into the canadian maritimes on Thursday.

In its wake... High pressure and much drier air will build eastward
into the region on Thursday.

Wraparound moisture behind the low will maintain some lingering
showers and widespread ifr to MVFR ceilings across the region
tonight... With the worst conditions found immediately downwind of
the lakes and also across the higher terrain. While some patchy fog
will also lead to some spotty ifr MVFR visibilities this evening...

the fog and any attendant reductions should generally tend to
diminish from west to east through the night as surface winds turn
moderately breezy and help to more effectively mix the boundary
layer.

On Thursday we can expect improving conditions as the high builds
eastward into our region and brings an end to any showers followed
by a west to east clearing trend... Which will result in flight
conditions improving toVFR in most areas by the end of the day. The
one possible exception to this will be the higher terrain east of
lake ontario... Where some MVFR CIGS may linger through sunset.

Outlook...

Thursday night...VFR.

Friday and Saturday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers.

Sunday... MainlyVFR with a chance of rain or snow showers east
of lake ontario.

Monday...VFR.

Marine
Surface low pressure along the mid atlantic coastline will continue
to deepen tonight as it lifts into new england with westerly winds
freshening tonight into Thursday. Westerly winds will produce
sufficient waves and winds on the southern and eastern shores of
lake ontario for small craft conditions into Thursday night. Light
winds and waves expected through Friday with perhaps waves building
in westerly flow again on Saturday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Thursday for loz043.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Thursday for loz042.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt Thursday for loz044-
045.

Synopsis... Jjr smith
near term... Jjr smith
short term... Apffel
long term... Ar
aviation... Jjr smith
marine... Jjr smith


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 25 mi111 min WNW 14 G 18 42°F 38°F1 ft1009.3 hPa (+0.9)
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax 28 mi51 min WNW 16 G 18 42°F 38°F1 ft1007.9 hPa (+0.1)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 32 mi51 min W 12 G 17 41°F 1008.8 hPa (+1.0)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 43 mi51 min Calm G 0 41°F 1009.1 hPa (-0.0)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi51 min 44°F 1009.4 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY44 mi58 minWNW 175.00 miLight Rain46°F41°F83%1009.3 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4E5E5E7E7E7E3E5E5E4E4E5E5E3S3W5NW9NW9NW8NW8NW6W3W13W17
1 day agoE3SW3CalmS4S5S7S8SW6S5S6S8SW14
G20
SW13S12S9SW9S8S10S7CalmS3CalmE3E5
2 days agoE5SE6E5E4E4E5E5E3E5E4E3SE6S64SE9SE6
G17
E3S8E5N9NE11E12NE7E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.