Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Youngs, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 4:43PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 7:00 AM EST (12:00 UTC) Moonrise 11:33AMMoonset 9:42PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 331 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Today..West winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mostly cloudy.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of snow showers in the evening, then snow showers likely overnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of snow showers in the morning.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mostly cloudy.
Friday..South winds 10 knots or less. A chance of rain Friday night.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Mostly cloudy.
LOZ030 Expires:201812121600;;668899 FZUS51 KBUF 120833 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 331 AM EST Wed Dec 12 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ030-121600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Youngs, NY
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location: 43.61, -79.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 120845
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
345 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis
Weak lake effect snow will diminish this morning south and southeast
of lake ontario. After a brief period of dry weather later today and
into this evening, a passing disturbance will bring light snow to
areas south of lake ontario tonight and early Thursday. Much warmer
air will reach our region Friday and through the weekend, with
air temperatures topping out into the 40s each day.

Near term through tonight
Lake effect snow this morning continues to weaken based on the
effects of northwest flow, loss of moisture in the dendritic snow
growth zone and lowering lake induced equilibrium levels. Light snow
will continue this morning through the genesee valley and northern
finger lakes, ending by around noontime. Additional accumulation of
snow will be minor, likely to be less than an inch.

Elsewhere, moisture in the lower levels will maintain a cloudy day
across the region as an upper level ridge axis nears... Creating a
subsidence inversion that will make difficulty in eroding these
clouds. The north country will have the best chance of clearing with
nw flow keeping the addition of lake moisture to a minimum. This
clearing will allow for the north country to quickly cool this
evening... Supporting overnight lows that will dip down into the low
to mid single digits across the north country.

This upper level ridge will give us a brief period of dry weather
through the afternoon and early evening hours. Water vapor imagery
this early morning displays a potent shortwave trough near mn ia
border that will near our region tonight. Moisture pooling ahead of
this feature, combined with lift associated with the shortwave will
bring a period of light snow across our region tonight... Mainly
south of lake ontario. Snowfall rates will be modest, up to a half
inch per hour... That in total could yield 2 to 3 inches of snow
tonight across the hills of the so. Tier... With an inch or two of
snow just to the south of buffalo and rochester.

Short term Thursday through Saturday night
A mid level circulation that will be centered over our forecast area
at the start of this period Thursday morning will open up and exit
to our east during the course of the midday and afternoon. Leftover
snow showers associated with this compact mid level feature will
taper off in the process... With significant hgt rises and tons of
subsidence promoting fair dry weather for the second half of the
day. A portion of the downward motion will be supplied by being in
the proximity of the left rear entrance region of a 100kt h25 over
the mid atlantic region. Unfortunately... There may still be enough
low level moisture in place to keep us from completely clearing off.

A burgeoning ridge will be found over the lower great lakes Thursday
night. The amplification of the ridge will be largely due to heights
being pumped up downstream from an anomalously deep storm system
over east texas. This will guarantee fair dry weather across our
region Thursday night... With strengthening warm advection taking the
chill off the string of cold nights. In fact... Low temperatures east
of lake ontario will be some 20 degrees higher than those from the
previous night.

Speaking of rising temperature trends... The mercury will climb into
the 40s across the region on Friday... As weak warm advection will
continue within a split mid level flow. This will include a
progressive trough that will dig across the upper great lakes...

while an impressive stacked low will churn across the lower
mississippi valley. We will be wedged between these two systems
where will still be able to cling to the backside of an atlantic
ridge. This will leave us 'high and dry' on a day that looked much
more pessimistic earlier in the week. The exception will be across
the northern portions of jefferson county thousand islands region
where there will be a low chc for some rain showers in the
afternoon. Otherwise... The day will just feature thickening clouds.

The split flow will remain separate Friday night with the trough in
the arctic branch of the jet passing just to our north... While the
expansive and mature southern storm will actually start to weaken
with a broadening of its surface low. This will leave general
troughiness over our region... But nothing synoptically to really
focus or force significant pcpn. There will be an increase in
atlantic moisture though... As a stronger south to southeast flow
will direct a deeper moisture field northward across eastern
pennsylvania into new york state. The guidance packages during the
past several days have been at odds in handling the evolution of
this non-phasing event... But they seem to be aligning much better...

at least through this night and Saturday. In any case... The deeper
moisture and generally weak lift provided by an upper level jet will
help to support some rain... Especially east and south of the genesee
valley where a 40kt low level jet could come into play. Rainfall
amounts through the night are not expected to exceed a quarter inch.

Have continued the trend of lowering the pops for Saturday... As
there is stronger consensus among the guidance packages that the
bulk of the moisture will push east of our region. Synoptically...

the northern trough will exit across new england while the closed
off storm system over the deep south will slow its eastward
progress. This should allow for ridging to extend from the plains to
the great lakes region... Essentially creating a rex block over the
ohio valley. Since we will be on the north side of this block... We
should be able to experience improving conditions throughout the
day with only some leftover morning showers for sites south of a
line from kbuf to kroc to kart.

The semblance of a rex block will become a little better organized
Saturday night as ridging will continue to build across the lower
great lakes. This should enable our region to have a fair dry night
although am not promising substantial clearing... Just yet.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
We can anticipate a gradual lowering of temperatures during this
period... And contrary to the 00z GFS and many of its related gefs
ensemble members... The majority of the period should be pcpn free.

On Sunday... A digging long wave trough over ontario should pinch the
extension of a ridge that will be over our forecast area while the
decaying southern stream storm system will head for the carolina
coast. This scenario would support fair dry weather for our region
through Sunday night.

The digging trough will push a somewhat moisture starved cold front
across our area on Monday. This should support scattered nuisance
snow showers... Although the 00z operational GFS is depicting a much
more aggressive and robust shortwave that would result in widespread
accumulating snows. This is clearly an outlier from the majority of
the GEFS ensembles and certainly from the ecmwf... Which has been the
more consistent and meteorologically realistic model leading up to
this point. Will thus only carry low chc pops for snow showers.

High pressure will build across the lower great lakes in the wake of
the front Monday night and Tuesday... Promoting a return to dry
weather as we progress deeper into the new work week.

Aviation 09z Wednesday through Sunday
For the 06z tafs widespread MVFR and low endVFR flight conditions
are found across the region... With localized ifr in light snow fog
across kjhw (higher terrain) and kart (closest to the departing
upper level trough).

We should see a modest improvement to flight conditions through the
mid morning hours as an upper level ridge axis passes across the
region. Moisture trapped in the lower layers will still continue
widespread MVFR and low endVFR south of lake ontario though.

After a possible brief return toVFR this evening, flight conditions
will again lower tonight as an upper level disturbance passes just
to the south of the region, spreading light snow across areas south
of lake ontario. Kjhw will likely diminish to ifr just before 06z,
with MVFR, brief ifr farther to the north across kbuf kiag and kroc
after 06z.

Outlook...

Thursday... MainlyVFR with a chance of light snow showers.

Friday... MainlyVFR with a chance of rain showers across
the southern tier.

Saturday and Sunday...VFR MVFR with a chance of rain showers.

Marine
Between a surface high over northern new england, and surface low
over the midwest, an easterly flow will develop later today and
tonight on the lakes with wind speeds exceeding 20 knots on the
western end of lake ontario. These speeds along with waves over 4
feet will necessitate the issuance of small craft advisories for the
western half of lake ontario. Winds will veer to southeasterly
tomorrow and weaken with lowering wave heights pushed towards the
canadian waters.

These southeast to south winds will remain on the lakes Thursday
through Friday night, but likely remaining just below small craft
thresholds. Another storm system will near the region for the
weekend, though north winds associated with this system may remain
light enough to continue favorable boating conditions.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
Thursday for loz042-043.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Thomas
short term... Rsh
long term... Rsh
aviation... Thomas
marine... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 32 mi61 min SSW 4.1 G 7 30°F 1019 hPa (+1.1)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 43 mi61 min N 8 G 8.9 34°F 1020.3 hPa
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi31 min 29°F 1019.6 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY44 mi68 minSW 34.00 miFog/Mist22°F19°F92%1020.6 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS15S13SW13
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W7W7W9W12W9W10W9W10W9W7W8W7W6W6SW3
1 day agoSW3SW4SW4CalmCalmW3NW8W5CalmW4NW3W3SW6SW3W5W7SW3S12W15
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2 days agoW5W6W4W7SW11SW18
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SW16SW17W14W7W6W6W5SW3CalmW5SW7SW6SW7SW5SW3SW3SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.