Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Youngs, NY
April 19, 2024 2:34 PM EDT (18:34 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:26 AM Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 3:00 PM Moonset 3:56 AM |
LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 1027 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Rest of tonight - Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy.
Friday - Southeast winds less than 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers.
Friday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Partly cloudy.
Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night - West winds 5 to 15 knots. Becoming mainly clear.
Sunday - West winds 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear.
Monday - West winds around 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy.
Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely.
LOZ005
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 191731 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 131 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will exit to the east of the area by this evening, with rain showers ending from west to east. Another trough will pass over the eastern Great Lakes Saturday with scattered showers. A few of these showers may produce some small hail or graupel. Dry weather will return Sunday through much of Tuesday as high pressure builds east across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic. Cool temperatures and gusty winds this weekend will give way to a warming trend early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Radar imagery showing the most concentrated area of rain moving into the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon, with lighter showers extending back into the Genesee Valley. The cold front and mid level trough supporting this rain will continue to move east through the rest of the afternoon, with showers gradually diminishing from west to east. Rain has already ended for the western end of the state, with mainly dry weather prevailing the rest of today. Breezy conditions will continue this afternoon, with gusts occasionally reaching 25-35 mph.
Tonight, the main cold front will move east of the area this evening, with the associated area of rain exiting Lewis County by early to mid evening. A weaker secondary cold front and mid level trough will cross Western NY this evening, and may produce a few spotty light showers east/northeast of Lake Erie. This boundary will cross the eastern Lake Ontario region overnight, and may support a few more scattered light showers. Ongoing cold advection will drop temperatures back into the low 40s in most locations, with mid to upper 30s across higher terrain.
Saturday, a sharp mid level trough will move from the central Great Lakes in the morning to western New England by evening, with a strong vorticity maxima crossing the eastern Great Lakes in the afternoon. An associated cold front will cross the region in the afternoon. While forcing will be strong with this feature, it will be moisture starved.
Cold air aloft will contribute to strong low/mid level lapse rates with daytime heating and support diurnal showers from late morning through early evening. Expect a classic lake breeze boundary and stable lake shadow configuration to the showers Saturday. The most concentrated band of showers will likely be from the Niagara Frontier extending ESE into the western Finger Lakes where enhanced and channeled WSW flow off Lake Erie converges with WNW flow found just south of Lake Ontario. The cold air aloft and steep lapse rates suggest a few of these showers may contain graupel or small hail, even in the absence of thunder. Meanwhile, stable lake shadows over and east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will keep shower chances lower, and the amount of sunshine higher for areas east of the lakes.
Temperatures Saturday will run close to 10 degrees below average, with highs ranging from the upper 40s for lower elevations to the low to mid 40s across higher terrain. It will be quite breezy again as well, with gusts of 25-35 mph across the area.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Broad mid-level troughing across the lower Great Lakes and the Northeast Saturday night will allow a shortwave trough to round the base of the trough Sunday. The passage of the shortwave will pull the longwave trough northeast, allowing for mid-level ridging to spread across the Great Lakes.
Despite the deep cyclonic flow overhead, expansive high pressure centered over the Central Plains and expanding east across the Ohio Valley will support mainly dry weather throughout the weekend into the start of next week. However, with the passage of the shortwave and the longwave trough axis aloft, a couple of moisture starved cold fronts will push southwards across the region Saturday night and then Sunday night. While both of these fronts will be precipitation free, cold air will advect into the region supporting below normal temperatures Sunday and Monday. Highs Sunday and Monday will range in the 40s across the North Country and upper 40s to low 50s elsewhere.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Unlike the previous several days...this bulk of this period is guaranteed to be unsettled and ultimately much chiller...including the potential for some accumulating wet snow.
A robust...Pacific based shortwave will cross the Upper Mississippi valley on Tuesday...while strong frontogensis over the Upper Great Lakes will lead to a wavy sfc frontal boundary that will extend to the southern plains
Meanwhile
high pressure wedged along the Eastern seaboard will be pushed out to sea. The resulting deepening southerly flow between the two systems will start to direct rich GOMEX moisture across the Ohio valley towards the Lower Great Lakes.
While the start of Tuesday will be pcpn free...some rain is expected to work its way into the forecast area during the course of the afternoon and evening. Guidance packages remain at odds though over the amount of phasing that could take place between the aforementioned Pacific based energy within the sub tropical jet and an already established upper level storm system in the vcnty of James Bay
From the 00z guidance
the GFS is a little faster and much more aggressive with phasing than the more trustworthy ECMWF.
This would lead to rain moving in faster on Tuesday with QPF in the vcnty of a quarter inch across the western counties. Will lean on a compromise between the ECMWF and ensemble solution which will yield Tuesday pops ranging from low chc over the Finger lakes and much of the Eastern Lake Ontario region to high likely near Lake Erie.
As the strong shortwave energy digs across the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night...the wavy frontal boundary will ease across our forecast area. While there will be a near 100% chance for some rain...the amount of phasing and the placement of the last wave along the sfc boundary will determine whether we experience widespread showers or a period of steadier soaking rain. This swath of rain could also be delayed by some six hours if the notably slower ECMWF solution works out...placing the steadiest pcpn over our region late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Will thus 'drag out feet' with the lowering of pops early Wednesday by aiming abv most of the guidance packages.
In the wake of the wavy frontal boundary...colder air will make its way across our region during the second half of Wednesday. As is typically the case...it will be a race between the cold air and the residual low level moisture as to the potential for a little wet snow. Previous guidance packages were more impressed with the potential for a little accumulation...but the models have since backed off with that train of though
In any case
mixed pcpn should be tapering off across our area later Wednesday and Wednesday night with brisk northwest winds and falling temperatures reminding us of the season that is still clearly visible in our rear-view mirrors.
Sfc based high pressure just to our west on Thursday should then promote fair dry weather...although it will be on the chilly side of normal with the mercury struggling to get out of the 40s.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A cold front will exit the area to the east later this afternoon and evening. Showers from the western Finger Lakes to the eastern Lake Ontario region will gradually end from west to east through the rest of the afternoon and early evening. Several hours of MVFR CIGS will continue along and behind the cold front, generally lagging the rain by a few hours. There will be some IFR across higher terrain as well. The MVFR/IFR CIGS will improve to VFR from west to east late this afternoon through this evening as drier air arrives. Wind gusts in the 20-30 knot range will continue through the rest of the afternoon.
Tonight, a secondary cold front may produce a few more spotty light showers, but VFR will prevail once the last of the lower CIGS moves east of the eastern Lake Ontario region this evening. Winds will diminish after sunset.
Saturday, a sharp mid level trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes. This will combine with steep low/mid level lapse rates to produce scattered showers from late morning through early evening.
The most concentrated area of showers will likely be found from the Niagara Frontier (near KIAG and KBUF) ESE into the western Finger Lakes where lake breeze convergence maximizes. A few of these showers may contain some small hail and/or graupel given the cold air aloft. VFR will prevail, but any heavier showers may contain brief CIG/VSBY restrictions.
Outlook...
Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers later in the afternoon.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...Areas of MVFR with showers.
MARINE
A cold front will move east of the area this afternoon and evening.
A brief period of gusty WSW winds in the wake of the cold front will produce Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and the eastern portion of Lake Ontario through this evening before winds diminish overnight.
Another trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes Saturday, producing another round of solid westerly flow Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Winds will temporarily diminish again Saturday night, then increase again Sunday with another period of solid westerly flow Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Overall, a poor weekend for boating with chilly temperatures, strong winds, and high waves much of the time.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for LOZ044-045.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 131 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will exit to the east of the area by this evening, with rain showers ending from west to east. Another trough will pass over the eastern Great Lakes Saturday with scattered showers. A few of these showers may produce some small hail or graupel. Dry weather will return Sunday through much of Tuesday as high pressure builds east across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic. Cool temperatures and gusty winds this weekend will give way to a warming trend early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Radar imagery showing the most concentrated area of rain moving into the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon, with lighter showers extending back into the Genesee Valley. The cold front and mid level trough supporting this rain will continue to move east through the rest of the afternoon, with showers gradually diminishing from west to east. Rain has already ended for the western end of the state, with mainly dry weather prevailing the rest of today. Breezy conditions will continue this afternoon, with gusts occasionally reaching 25-35 mph.
Tonight, the main cold front will move east of the area this evening, with the associated area of rain exiting Lewis County by early to mid evening. A weaker secondary cold front and mid level trough will cross Western NY this evening, and may produce a few spotty light showers east/northeast of Lake Erie. This boundary will cross the eastern Lake Ontario region overnight, and may support a few more scattered light showers. Ongoing cold advection will drop temperatures back into the low 40s in most locations, with mid to upper 30s across higher terrain.
Saturday, a sharp mid level trough will move from the central Great Lakes in the morning to western New England by evening, with a strong vorticity maxima crossing the eastern Great Lakes in the afternoon. An associated cold front will cross the region in the afternoon. While forcing will be strong with this feature, it will be moisture starved.
Cold air aloft will contribute to strong low/mid level lapse rates with daytime heating and support diurnal showers from late morning through early evening. Expect a classic lake breeze boundary and stable lake shadow configuration to the showers Saturday. The most concentrated band of showers will likely be from the Niagara Frontier extending ESE into the western Finger Lakes where enhanced and channeled WSW flow off Lake Erie converges with WNW flow found just south of Lake Ontario. The cold air aloft and steep lapse rates suggest a few of these showers may contain graupel or small hail, even in the absence of thunder. Meanwhile, stable lake shadows over and east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will keep shower chances lower, and the amount of sunshine higher for areas east of the lakes.
Temperatures Saturday will run close to 10 degrees below average, with highs ranging from the upper 40s for lower elevations to the low to mid 40s across higher terrain. It will be quite breezy again as well, with gusts of 25-35 mph across the area.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Broad mid-level troughing across the lower Great Lakes and the Northeast Saturday night will allow a shortwave trough to round the base of the trough Sunday. The passage of the shortwave will pull the longwave trough northeast, allowing for mid-level ridging to spread across the Great Lakes.
Despite the deep cyclonic flow overhead, expansive high pressure centered over the Central Plains and expanding east across the Ohio Valley will support mainly dry weather throughout the weekend into the start of next week. However, with the passage of the shortwave and the longwave trough axis aloft, a couple of moisture starved cold fronts will push southwards across the region Saturday night and then Sunday night. While both of these fronts will be precipitation free, cold air will advect into the region supporting below normal temperatures Sunday and Monday. Highs Sunday and Monday will range in the 40s across the North Country and upper 40s to low 50s elsewhere.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Unlike the previous several days...this bulk of this period is guaranteed to be unsettled and ultimately much chiller...including the potential for some accumulating wet snow.
A robust...Pacific based shortwave will cross the Upper Mississippi valley on Tuesday...while strong frontogensis over the Upper Great Lakes will lead to a wavy sfc frontal boundary that will extend to the southern plains
Meanwhile
high pressure wedged along the Eastern seaboard will be pushed out to sea. The resulting deepening southerly flow between the two systems will start to direct rich GOMEX moisture across the Ohio valley towards the Lower Great Lakes.
While the start of Tuesday will be pcpn free...some rain is expected to work its way into the forecast area during the course of the afternoon and evening. Guidance packages remain at odds though over the amount of phasing that could take place between the aforementioned Pacific based energy within the sub tropical jet and an already established upper level storm system in the vcnty of James Bay
From the 00z guidance
the GFS is a little faster and much more aggressive with phasing than the more trustworthy ECMWF.
This would lead to rain moving in faster on Tuesday with QPF in the vcnty of a quarter inch across the western counties. Will lean on a compromise between the ECMWF and ensemble solution which will yield Tuesday pops ranging from low chc over the Finger lakes and much of the Eastern Lake Ontario region to high likely near Lake Erie.
As the strong shortwave energy digs across the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night...the wavy frontal boundary will ease across our forecast area. While there will be a near 100% chance for some rain...the amount of phasing and the placement of the last wave along the sfc boundary will determine whether we experience widespread showers or a period of steadier soaking rain. This swath of rain could also be delayed by some six hours if the notably slower ECMWF solution works out...placing the steadiest pcpn over our region late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Will thus 'drag out feet' with the lowering of pops early Wednesday by aiming abv most of the guidance packages.
In the wake of the wavy frontal boundary...colder air will make its way across our region during the second half of Wednesday. As is typically the case...it will be a race between the cold air and the residual low level moisture as to the potential for a little wet snow. Previous guidance packages were more impressed with the potential for a little accumulation...but the models have since backed off with that train of though
In any case
mixed pcpn should be tapering off across our area later Wednesday and Wednesday night with brisk northwest winds and falling temperatures reminding us of the season that is still clearly visible in our rear-view mirrors.
Sfc based high pressure just to our west on Thursday should then promote fair dry weather...although it will be on the chilly side of normal with the mercury struggling to get out of the 40s.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A cold front will exit the area to the east later this afternoon and evening. Showers from the western Finger Lakes to the eastern Lake Ontario region will gradually end from west to east through the rest of the afternoon and early evening. Several hours of MVFR CIGS will continue along and behind the cold front, generally lagging the rain by a few hours. There will be some IFR across higher terrain as well. The MVFR/IFR CIGS will improve to VFR from west to east late this afternoon through this evening as drier air arrives. Wind gusts in the 20-30 knot range will continue through the rest of the afternoon.
Tonight, a secondary cold front may produce a few more spotty light showers, but VFR will prevail once the last of the lower CIGS moves east of the eastern Lake Ontario region this evening. Winds will diminish after sunset.
Saturday, a sharp mid level trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes. This will combine with steep low/mid level lapse rates to produce scattered showers from late morning through early evening.
The most concentrated area of showers will likely be found from the Niagara Frontier (near KIAG and KBUF) ESE into the western Finger Lakes where lake breeze convergence maximizes. A few of these showers may contain some small hail and/or graupel given the cold air aloft. VFR will prevail, but any heavier showers may contain brief CIG/VSBY restrictions.
Outlook...
Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers later in the afternoon.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...Areas of MVFR with showers.
MARINE
A cold front will move east of the area this afternoon and evening.
A brief period of gusty WSW winds in the wake of the cold front will produce Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and the eastern portion of Lake Ontario through this evening before winds diminish overnight.
Another trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes Saturday, producing another round of solid westerly flow Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Winds will temporarily diminish again Saturday night, then increase again Sunday with another period of solid westerly flow Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Overall, a poor weekend for boating with chilly temperatures, strong winds, and high waves much of the time.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for LOZ044-045.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby | 25 mi | 34 min | W 9.7G | 49°F | 42°F | 1 ft | 29.83 | |
| 45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax | 28 mi | 34 min | SSW 1.9G | 43°F | 41°F | 2 ft | 29.80 | |
| YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY | 32 mi | 34 min | W 12G | 53°F | 29.81 | |||
| OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 43 mi | 34 min | W 14G | 29.83 | ||||
| NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY | 44 mi | 46 min | 55°F | 29.82 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| CYYZ LESTER B PEARSON INTL,CN | 10 sm | 76 min | WNW 13 | 15 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 55°F | 50°F | 82% | 29.78 |
Buffalo, NY,
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