Marine Weather and Tides
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.
|Sunrise 6:16AM||Sunset 8:15PM||Friday April 26, 2019 2:02 AM EDT (06:02 UTC)||Moonrise 1:33AM||Moonset 10:59AM||Illumination 58%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Youngs, NYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
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area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1038 pm edt Thu apr 25 2019
A storm system will spread a soaking rain across our region overnight
and Friday. Rain showers will remain across the region Friday
night and early Saturday, with cooler air following this system
transitioning the rain showers over to higher elevation snow
showers late Friday night and Saturday morning. After a brief
break from the precipitation Saturday afternoon, another system
will bring additional light rain and snow showers to our region
Saturday night and Sunday morning.
Near term through Friday night
A northern branch shortwave near wisconsin will phase with a
southern branch shortwave nearing illinois tonight, creating a
deep negatively tilted upper level trough and result in a
strengthening surface low. A deep southwesterly flow ahead of
this system will feed gulf of mexico moisture into this system
with pwats increasing to around 1.25 inches tonight and Friday.
Radar imagery displays an area of rain across the western
southern tier late this evening, with this expected to gradually
push northward across the rest of western new york along the
nose of a 50 knot llj. Isentropic lift, beneath the right
entrance region of a 120 knot 250 hpa jet that will be zonally
stretched across southern ontario and southern quebec will bring
favorable lift to support widespread rain.
Steady rain will continue to spread north and east across the
cwa overnight, and continue through the day Friday as a surface
low tracks across wny and towards southern canada. Ahead of
this surface low ceiling heights will lower, with low clouds and
fog likely across the higher terrain. Some patches of fog are
also possible across the lower elevations as well.
Convergence along the LLJ may push rainfall rates up to a quarter of
an inch per hour for a few hours late overnight across far western
portions of wny... And then Friday across the finger lakes eastern
lake ontario region. Otherwise this will be a steady, soaking rain
event, that will have rainfall rates increase again Friday
morning early afternoon as a baroclinic boundary tightens and moves
across the region. This rain will raise creek and stream flows that
should remain within their banks.
As the deepening surface low tracks from wny to just north of
lake ontario and then towards western quebec, winds will quickly
veer from SE S to SW w. Winds will be gusty just behind this
system with a couple hours with wind gusts to around 35 mph. While
it will remain relatively mild ahead of the surface low, with
temperatures in the lower to mid 60s, strong cold air advection
behind the surface low will begin to lower these temperatures
through the day from west to east. By late afternoon many areas
to the west of the genesee valley will be down into the mid 40s.
There may be a brief window for some fog to form off lake erie
around midday tomorrow as a 240 wind flow develops. This wind, and a
saturated atmosphere over the still ice covered NE end of lake erie
may bring fog in across the city of buffalo and surrounding suburbs.
As the wind continues to veer to westerly this fog concern will
diminish by late afternoon.
Rain will taper off to showers Friday as the leading edge of colder
air pushes across the region. Temperatures will continue to fall
through the night, with lows Friday night down into the low to mid
30s. Thermal profiles suggest that rain will mix with snow showers
across wny. With a lobe of moisture continuing the chances for
precipitation late Friday night, and 850 hpa temperatures dropping
towards -6c... The higher terrain above 1600 feet may receive a
slushy coating of snow by Saturday morning.
Overall precipitation for this event, from tonight through Friday
night will average around an inch across far western wny (closer to
the passing surface low), and up to an inch and a quarter across the
eastern lake ontario region where an upslope SE S flow should aid in
maximizing rainfall. For the genesee valley and finger lakes area,
precipitation totals will likely remain below an inch for most
Short term Saturday through Sunday night
The storm system Saturday will move slowly from northern new
york into new england. Pressure gradient across the area
combined with cold air advection will keep west-northwest winds
gusty with most areas gusting in the 35-45 mph range. Lingering
moist cyclonic flow in wake of system will keep precipitation
going through at least the morning and perhaps through the
afternoon in favored upslope areas, with some wet snow across
higher elevations during the morning. It will be a rather chilly
day with high temperatures only in the lower to mid 40s, but it
feel much colder with the wind factored in. Any lingering
rain snow showers will end by early Saturday evening, as narrow
surface-based ridging and drier air briefly crests across our
region with some partial clearing taking place.
Saturday night, a potent and compact mid-level short wave will zip|
through the great lakes region. This wave is modeled across the
board to feature very strong system relative isentropic ascent, and
an impressive trowal within a strengthening deformation zone. The
current forecast surface low track, just south of the new york
state border will allow for a developing northerly flow component
which will be key in lowering surface dewpoints. Given forecast
thermodynamics and timing, suspect that a move more toward
rain snow or even all snow at least for higher elevations might
be needed. If this is in indeed the case, the general model
liquid precipitation consensus of near a half inch or more is a
bit concerning. Probably will need some finer adjustment as we
move closer to the event with some mesoscale modeling. For now,
will hedge the higher elevations a bit higher on snowfall
amounts in the 2-3" range, but this might need to be nudged even
further. Stay tuned.
Long term Monday through Thursday
The long term period starts with model guidance fairly well
clustered together with ridging quickly shifting to the east of
the area on Monday and being replaced by high speed upper flow
from the wsw aloft. One wave will enter the picture by late
Monday and progress through the area, resulting in an upward
bump in precipitation chances with it. Beyond that time, model
guidance has substantial difficulty defining the timeliness of
additional fast-moving waves in the broad wsw flow aloft. As a
result, pops were generally built using a blended model concept
that favors a bit higher pops over the southern half of the area
than the northern half of the area during the time frame.
Regardless, the preponderance of guidance suggests that we will
generally remain on the cool side of the surface boundary these
systems will be tracking down, and as a result, temperatures
were generally favored near or below normal.
Aviation 03z Friday through Tuesday
Rain and low moisture will continue to progress northward
overnight, with flight conditions lowering into the mfvr flight
category at most locations. Areas of ifr flight conditions are
expected at kjhw and the higher terrain of the western southern
tier due to lower ceilings. Poor flight conditions of ifr and
MVFR will remain late tonight and through Friday as a surface
low tracks across the region. Southwesterly winds will pick up
when the surface low passes by with lower cigs, and possibly
some fog northeast of the lakes Friday afternoon.
In advance of the surface low, a LLJ will bring some llws to
the western TAF sites. As the low passes across the region
tomorrow, winds will quickly veer from S SE to SW W through the
Friday night and Saturday morning... MVFR ifr with rain ending as
Saturday afternoon... A return toVFR.
Sunday... MVFR or ifr conditions possible with rain and snow.
Monday night and Tuesday... MainlyVFR, with chances for rain
showers and associated MVFR.
A storm system will track across the eastern great lakes overnight
and Friday. Stronger winds and higher wave heights will come
with cold air advection behind the exiting storm system later
Friday and into the weekend.
Conditions will deteriorate rapidly behind the surface low, and
based on this we have issued small craft headlines for the lakes
and the upper niagara river. Winds will begin to diminish
through the day Saturday, with waves likely to remain at or
above SCA thresholds into Saturday night.
Buf watches warnings advisories
Marine... Small craft advisory from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday for
Small craft advisory from noon to 11 pm edt Friday for
Small craft advisory from 6 pm Friday to 2 am edt
Sunday for loz043>045.
Small craft advisory from 3 pm Friday to 11 pm edt
Saturday for loz042.
Synopsis... Apffel thomas
near term... Thomas apffel
short term... Tma
long term... Fries
marine... Apffel thomas
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby||25 mi||63 min||NNE 3.9 G 5.8||40°F||40°F||1 ft||1004.3 hPa (-3.8)|
|45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax||28 mi||63 min||NE 5.8 G 5.8||41°F||38°F||1 ft||1005.8 hPa (-3.9)|
|OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY||43 mi||63 min||E 9.9 G 11||40°F||1006.1 hPa (-3.7)|
|NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY||44 mi||39 min||50°F||1004.7 hPa|
Wind History for Buffalo, NY(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY||44 mi||70 min||E 5||9.00 mi||Light Rain||50°F||44°F||80%||1004.9 hPa|
Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||W||W||W||W||NW||NW||NW|
|2 days ago||Calm||Calm||E||SE||S||SE||S||S||S||S||S||S||S|
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (2,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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