Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 9:59 PM   Moonset 6:19 AM

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FXUS61 KGYX 251632 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1232 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry high pressure moves into and across the region today through Saturday. A warming trend can be expected over the weekend with chance of showers Saturday night or Sunday. Warmer weather is then expected early next week for most areas except possibly the coastal plain with scattered showers.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
1230pm Update...While mixing was off to a good start, surface obs are running a bit more humid than forecast. This may be related to the lighter winds settling in now, but sun angle should really start warming the surface over next few hours.
Otherwise, no large changes at this time.

1015am Update...See little to change at this update behind good logic from the night crew. Winds started breezy, but will begin to trend lighter as broad low pressure pulls northeast into the Canadian Maritimes. Will start to see RH values fall as the afternoon goes on. Warming temps today, but that warmth may only be realized out in the direct sun due to the breeze and cool mixed temps.

8am Update...SCA has been allowed to expire as buoy waves are 1 to 3 ft for the most part and winds will continue to subside through the morning.

730 AM Update... Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends. Temperatures are already beginning to rebound now that we are past sunrise.

Previously...
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery early this morning shows clear skies across the region. West-northwesterly winds remain gusty in most locations with some gusts still between 25-30 mph. Breezy conditions will persist through daybreak in most locations, although a few valley spots could briefly decouple. Current temperatures are primarily into the 20s but a few lower 30 degree readings persist over southern NH and coastal western ME. A few additional degrees of cooling can be expected through daybreak.

Surface high pressure will remain over the region today but a h5 trough axis will keep temperatures aloft on the cool side. This will result in mainly sunny skies and low afternoon relative humidity as we mix into a very dry airmass aloft. Afternoon relative humidity will fall into the middle teens to 20s percent range in most areas, lowest south of the mountains and away from the immediate coastline. West-northwesterly winds will also persist at between 10-15 mph, gusting to around 25 mph at times.
This combined with the low relative humidity could cause increased fire weather concerns. Latest hi-res guidance continues to indicate the development of onshore flow along the coast by mid-afternoon, which will allow RH to increase over coastal locations. Given the very dry airmass and abundant sunshine, went on the warm side of guidance for afternoon high temperatures. This places readings into the middle to upper 50s for many areas south of the mountains and away from the immediate coast.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
Mainly clear skies will persist tonight with winds quickly decreasing this evening with the loss of daytime heating/mixing.
This will set the stage for likely excellent radiational cooling conditions despite the relatively short nights of late April. As a result, used MOS guidance for overnight lows and pushed down the normally colder valleys down a few additional degrees. This places lows into the teens across the normally colder interior valley locations with 20s in most other locations.

Sunny skies and dry conditions will continue on Friday with h850 temperatures warming by around 5C. This combined with deep afternoon mixing will allow for warmer high temperatures into the upper 50s to middle 60s south of the mountains, warmest in southern NH. Relative humidity will once again fall into the teens to 20s percent range during the afternoon hours. Surface westerly winds will be weaker as compared to today and this will likely allow for an earlier start to the seabreeze and it will likely penetrate further inland with increasing relative humidity behind it.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure will remain anchored over northern New England as we begin the long term portion of the forecast. With clear skies, light winds and low dew points, expected a large diurnal curve with lows dropping below freezing in all areas with 20s in the north and lower 30s in the south.

More sunshine is expected on Saturday as the large ridge of high pressure begins to slip off the Northeast coastline. A southwesterly flow will develop by late in the day and will allow temperatures to climb through the 60s.

00Z model runs remain in relatively good agreement allowing a warm front to approach the region from the west Saturday night.
This will allow for a few showers to enter the region, mainly over northern and western areas. Scattered showers will continue on Sunday with readings in the 60s in most areas. The exception will be coastal areas where temperatures will be in the 50s.

Temperatures will peak early next week. H8 temperatures near +12C and some sunshine will allow temperatures to reach the 70s over southern New Hampshire and 60s over interior Maine. Very cold water temperatures in the Gulf of Maine will allow for chilly temperatures will onshore winds and readings in the 50s.
A nearly stationary from will allow for a few more scattered showers across the region.

Temperatures will begin to cool off by midweek next week with plenty of cloud cover and some cold air advection.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Short Term...VFR conditions prevail today through at least Friday. West-northwesterly winds will continue today with gusts up to around 25 kts before becoming light and variable tonight.
A seabreeze will develop between 18-20Z today with winds becoming southerly at KPSM, KPWM, and KRKD. Westerly winds continue on Friday before another seabreeze develops after 16Z.
No LLWs is expected.

Long Term...VFR conditions continue Saturday with high pressure overhead. Scattered -SHRA arrives Saturday night through part of Sunday with possible lower ceilings although the any rainfall would likely be brief at one location. The same is expected for early next week although chances of rain will be lower.

MARINE
Short Term...West-northwesterly winds of 15-20 kts continue today before becoming light and variable tonight and then west at 10-15 kts on Friday. Seas will decrease below 5 ft by early this afternoon over the outer waters.

Long Term...Winds and seas to remain below thresholds hazardous to small crafts as high pressure builds over the waters Saturday and into early next week.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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