Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:46 PM Moonrise 7:47 PM   Moonset 5:38 AM

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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 1105 Am Cdt Tue Apr 23 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening - .
Rest of today - Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots veering west late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Tonight - Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots veering north in the late evening and overnight. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 6 to 8 feet after midnight. Wednesday - North wind 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then veering northeast early in the afternoon easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny in the morning then clearing. Waves 6 to 8 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet. Wednesday night - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight veering east early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 231535 AAA AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1035 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather risk this afternoon due to gusty west to southwest low relative humidity values.

- Widely scattered thunderstorms from 2 to 9 PM. The severe risk is low, but expect small hail and locally gusty winds with a few storms.

- Conditional frost/freeze risk late tonight and again Wednesday night with temperatures around or just below freezing.

- Active pattern Friday through this weekend. Multiple rounds of showers/storms will result in locally heavy rainfall. The severe storm risk is more uncertain, but bears monitoring.

UPDATE
Issued 1035 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Solid swath of mid/high level clouds continue to stream across southern Wisconsin. These clouds will gradually shift to the east and thin, resulting in increasing breaks in the overcast and eventually some clearing. A compact shortwave diving south through MN will continue to surge to the south, southeast today.
Combination of partial clearing and cyclonic flow will result in a resurgence of cumulus development.

Incoming suite of mesoscale models are a little less certain with shower/storm initiation. While mid level lapse rates are steep, leading to very modest MUCAPE, the overall thermo profiles are quite dry and deeply mixed.

A primary concern this afternoon will be elevated fire weather conditions with gusty west/northwest winds in excess of 30mph and relative humidity values approaching 20%.

If storms can indeed fire in this dry airmass, they will be high based producing gusty winds and small hail (peas to half inch).
However, trends indicate the better potential for development this afternoon will be to our southeast over Lake Michigan, northern IL/IN. Trends indicate we will need to wait for the cold front to our north to provide enough moisture/lift for showers and a few storms during the evening hours.

As the shortwave and front exits overnight and clearing begins, concern turns to a few hour period where temperatures may reach at/below freezing along/north of I-94 and away from Lake Michigan. Still a lot of ifs here regarding full clearing and winds keeping things rather mixed. The better combination of high pressure placement, clearing and light winds is Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Gagan

SHORT TERM
Issued 434 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Today through Wednesday:

Showers have moved east of the area, with some middle to high clouds lingering in its wake. Gusty southwest winds with fairly deep mixing should continue into this afternoon. Dew points should drop to or remain in the 30s this afternoon, which should bring low to very low relative humidity values. See Fire Weather section for more information.

Temperatures should rise into the upper 60s over most of the area, despite middle to high clouds at times. The mild start to the day should allow these highs to be reached. There may be some breaks in these clouds at times.

Latest CAMs and deterministic models are bringing the cold front somewhat faster through the area this afternoon, exiting to the southeast by early this evening. There is still good synoptic upward vertical motion with this and the 500 mb shortwave trough shifting through the region.

Dew points are one caveat, as mentioned previously should be in the 30s this afternoon, which should lead to any shower or thunderstorm be rather high-based. Still expecting scattered areal coverage of showers and some storms by middle afternoon into early evening.

Dry air below these bases on forecast soundings suggest gusty winds may occur with stronger storms, and small hail with up to 500 J/kg of elevated CAPE in a rather strongly-sheared environment. Best potential for these would be in southeast parts of the area, where the cold front will exit by early evening and have a little more instability to work with.

Once showers and storms exit the area, a secondary backdoor cold front will sweep southwestward across the area by early to middle evening. This will bring the strong cold air advection and gusty north to northeast winds into the area, and should help scour out the clouds. Lake effect clouds should develop and may linger for lakeshore areas tonight into Wednesday morning.

Colder lows in the upper 20s to around 30 north and lower to middle 30s south are forecast for later tonight. Will let day shift have another look at this forecast and determine if any freeze headlines will be needed for later tonight.

High pressure working southeast into the region will bring dry and cool conditions for Wednesday, with weakening winds.

Wood

LONG TERM
Issued 434 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Wednesday night through Monday:

High pressure should slowly shift east of the region Wednesday night into Thursday, with dry conditions lingering as winds shift to the southeast.

Ensembles suggest an active weather pattern for Friday into the upcoming weekend, with one low pressure system tracking northeast from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest Friday into Saturday. Another low on its heels then may shift along a similar path for Sunday into Monday. There is more uncertainty with the details with the second low track.

Overall, it looks like rounds of showers and thunderstorms should occur for at least portions of Friday into the weekend.
It is still too early to determine if strong to severe storms may occur, but will be something to watch. In addition, most ensemble members have solid rainfall occurring, so another thing to watch. Warm temperatures and perhaps some more humid air may move into the area by Saturday and linger longer. Gusty winds may occur at times, as each low pressure system moves through.

Wood

AVIATION
Issued 1035 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Mid/high level clouds will gradually thin out, with high based cumulus developing during the afternoon. West winds will be gusty this afternoon, gradually shifting to the northeast through this evening. A few showers and storms may develop as early as mid afternoon near MKE/RAC/ENW, but the better coverage is trending to be to the east/south of these locations.
Will be monitoring an incoming cold front from the north, which will bring enough moisture to instigate additional showers and a few storms this evening.

With a dry airmass in place, cloud development will be in the VFR category (at or above 5000 ft). The front quickly surges through the area by late this evening with some clearing. Will need to monitor for MVFR cigs near the lakefront overnight.

High pressure builds into the region for Wednesday with quiet weather conditions expected with a scattered VFR stratocumulus deck. North winds will remain gusty, but gradually decrease through the day.

Gagan

MARINE
Issued 434 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Gusty southwest winds will persist today, as low pressure around 29.5 inches moves from Lake Superior to Lake Huron. The low will bring a cold front southeast through the region today into this evening. Showers and some thunderstorms are forecast with the frontal passage.

Expect gusty west winds to turn north later this afternoon into this evening, from north to south across Lake Michigan. A period of north gales are expected tonight behind the cold front across the open waters, and a Gale Warning has been issued. Building waves are expected as well tonight.

A Small Craft Advisory continues for the nearshore waters today into Wednesday, for gusty winds through the period and building waves tonight into Wednesday morning. A few north gales may occur tonight.

Winds and waves will gradually lighten up Wednesday into Thursday, as high pressure around 30.4 inches moves southeast across the region.

South winds will then increase again Friday and remain gusty into the upcoming weekend, as multiple low pressure systems move northeast through the region. Some periods of gale force gusts may occur over the open waters, with winds and waves possibly reaching Small Craft Advisory levels in the nearshore waters.

Wood

FIRE WEATHER
Issued 434 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Gusty southwest winds with fairly deep mixing to 6000 to 7000 feet AGL should continue this afternoon. Dew points should drop to or remain in the 30s this afternoon, which should bring low to very low relative humidity values of 25 to 35 percent over the area. Given the scattered shower and storm activity by middle afternoon, will not issue a Special Weather Statement for elevated fire weather conditions. Still, any burning should be done with caution with the gusty winds and low relative humidity values.

May see very low relative humidity values of 20 to 30 percent on Wednesday afternoon, though winds will be light. Vales in the 25 to 35 percent range may linger on Thursday afternoon, before a wet period arrives for Friday into the upcoming weekend.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Gale Warning
LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ868...7 PM Tuesday to 4 AM Wednesday.

Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777- LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 PM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Wednesday.

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