Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 9:02PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 8:44 AM EDT (12:44 UTC) Moonrise 11:45PMMoonset 8:09AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ462 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 355 Am Edt Wed May 22 2019
Today..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the southwest early in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots in the morning becoming light and variable...then becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots late in the evening. A chance of showers late in the afternoon. A chance of Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Rain showers likely late in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the west in the late evening and early morning. Showers likely early in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers until early evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet until early morning.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots until afternoon becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ462 Expires:201905222015;;263484 FZUS63 KDTX 220755 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 355 AM EDT Wed May 22 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.20 inches will build gradually east of the region from today into tonight. A broad low pressure system will weaken to 29.70 inches as it tracks into the upper Mississippi Valley late today. A warm front will be drawn north through the region by this low. This low will then cross the northern Great Lakes tonight into early Thursday morning and drag a cold front through the region by late Thursday. LHZ462>464-222015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville city, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 221135
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
735 am edt Wed may 22 2019

Aviation
Showers will work through all terminals this morning, but CIGS will
remain lowerVFR with just occasional MVFR vsbys in a few heavier
showers. This activity will end quickly in the 16z-17z time frame
with clouds slowly breaking up thereafter. Another rounds of showers
may occur late tonight as well in advance of an approaching cold
front. In the wake of this front, gusty southwest to west flow will
set up on Thursday.

For dtw... Showers with CIGS occasionally AOB 5kft expected this
morning. CIGS then slowly lifting and breaking up later today.

Southeast winds to turn southerly tonight.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* low confidence in thunderstorms impacting terminal this morning.

* medium confidence in cigs AOB 5000 feet this morning, low this
afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 349 am edt Wed may 22 2019
discussion...

showers and thunderstorms are moving into western michigan early
this morning within a ribbon of higher theta-e being driving
northward by a 60 knots low level jet. Modest elevated instability
and steep mid-level lapse rates will support scattered general
thunderstorms. Confidence is lower in coverage and intensity of
these showers and thunderstorms as they begin to move through
southeast michigan between 12-18z. This is due to relatively weak
isentropic ascent as it reaches southeast michigan and better
instability holding across northern in. The other factor is the
onset of mid level subsidence, which is limiting the deep layer
moisture to a degree. However, morning radar trends suggest a slight
increase in pops for the 12-15z period is warranted for at least the
western portions of the cwa.

Precipitation will move into the eastern portions of the CWA by
18z and gradually come to an end with the exception of the thumb
where some lingering precipitation may linger slightly longer into
the early afternoon. Above the surface will be southwest flow, which
will drive a warm front northward through michigan throughout today.

This will work towards driving the cool marine modified airmass out
of the area. The front will lift into northern lower michigan by this
evening, which will result in a gradient in high temperatures across
the cwa. Looks like upper 50s along the shoreline of the thumb and
mid upper 70s across the ohio border.

The dry slot of the plains system will then move over michigan
bringing a period of dry weather by this evening and overnight. A
front will then be pushed through michigan on Thursday by the
weakening low pressure system as it crosses over the northern great
lakes. This will bring chances during the morning hours for
convection to kick up ahead of the front. An increase in elevated
instability and steeper mid-level will bring the potential for
thunderstorms. Precipitation clears the area during the early
afternoon replaced with gusty and warm west winds in a well mixed
post frontal environment. Passing surface high and upper ridge keep
dry conditions through Thursday night as the surface front is pushed
south of michigan and stalls out across the ohio valley.

On Friday, the upper jet will be streaming across the intermountain
west and develop another surface low which will lift through the
northern plains as it undergoes cyclogenesis. This will draw the
aforementioned stalled boundary northward through michigan as a warm
front and bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Precipitation chances continue late Friday night and through much of
Saturday with michigan residing between a low pressure across
southern ontario and a high pressure across the southeastern us.

This will send a corridor of high moisture into michigan with a
strengthening low level jet. Increasing instability and shear on
Saturday will bring the chance for another round of thunderstorms.

High pressure over the great lakes by Sunday afternoon will limit
precipitation chances to close out the weekend while slightly cooler
air settle over the region. High pressure with temperatures around
average look to hold into early next week.

Marine...

east to southeast flow will increase today as high pressure shifts
off to the east and a warm front begins to encroach from the south.

However, wind gusts are generally expected to stay under 25 knots
along the nearshore waters of lake huron with waves generally
peaking in the 2 to 4 foot range. Hence, small craft advisories will
not be issued. The small craft advisories for the michigan waters of
lake erie is continue as winds and waves will be slightly stronger
this morning.

Winds will become south to southwest late today into tonight ahead
of a cold front which will pass through the region on Thursday.

Gusts up to 25 knots are possible right along the shoreline areas of
the nearshore waters, but with low level stability over the open
waters will main gusts generally under 20 knots. A ridge of high
pressure will then settle through the area Thursday night and Friday
and bring light winds to all marine areas.

Hydrology...

scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will pass through
southeast michigan this morning and exit to the east early this
afternoon as a warm front lifts north. Basin average rainfall is
expected to average less than a quarter of an inch.

Increasing east-southeast flow associated with this warm front will
bring another period of flooding concerns along the shorelines of
lake st clair and western lake erie. Lakeshore flooding advisories
will remain in effect.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for miz070-076.

Lakeshore flood advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for miz083.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until noon edt today for lez444.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Aa
marine... ... .Dg
hydrology... .Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi44 min E 23 G 24 54°F 1017.6 hPa (-1.4)
45163 26 mi44 min ESE 16 G 19 54°F 51°F1 ft
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi64 min E 13 G 15 47°F 1019.6 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi51 minE 1110.00 miOvercast52°F45°F77%1018.7 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi49 minE 910.00 miOvercast54°F44°F72%1018.6 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi48 minE 610.00 miRain53°F44°F74%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm3NE8E10E10NE10E9NE10NE12E12
G18
NE9E9E8E7E7SE6E7E9E8SE6E6E11E11
1 day agoW15
G21
W16W17W17W12NW11W13NW14NW12NW12NW7N5W5NW6NW8N7NW4NW6N7CalmW4CalmSW4N4
2 days agoNE9NE8NE9NE6NE8NE5N3E8S7S11S14
G19
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S13S10SW10SW11W15W15W17W18
G26
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G23
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W14W17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.