Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:01AMSunset 5:01PM Saturday December 16, 2017 1:51 PM EST (18:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:16AMMoonset 4:19PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ462 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 959 Am Est Sat Dec 16 2017
Rest of today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon...then veering to the north late in the afternoon. A chance of snow showers late in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the southwest in the late evening and overnight. A chance of rain and snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers early in the morning. A chance of snow showers. A chance of late in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet late in the afternoon.
Tuesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales. A chance of rain and snow showers in the evening. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots until early morning. A chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and early morning. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
LHZ462 Expires:201712162115;;980638 FZUS63 KDTX 161459 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 959 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Friday's clipper laid out a frontal trough averaging 29.90 inches across the central Great Lakes. This front will drift south and then stall over the southern lakes today as high pressure averaging 30.40 inches builds southeast into the region for tonight into Sunday. LHZ462>464-162115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville city, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 161713
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1213 pm est Sat dec 16 2017

Aviation
The weak front stalled between ptk and dtw separates borderline
ifr MVFR to the north fromVFR to the south during early afternoon.

As light snow continues to diminish over the region, the front will
drift back southward during mid to late afternoon and bring renewed
coverage of MVFR ceiling into the dtw area while some breaks ofVFR
occur toward mbs. The front is not projected to move much farther
than the ohio border and so light drizzle and freezing drizzle
cannot be ruled out while the boundary is nearby, however upstream
observations support very low probability of occurrence for late
afternoon and evening. This will continue to be monitored tonight
through Sunday morning as the front moves back northward. Otherwise,
a mix of ifr and MVFR ceiling and possibly some fog will remain the
primary aviation concerns through the period.

For dtw... The front stalled just north of the terminal will slide
back southward during the afternoon. This will turn the wind back
around to NE and lower ceiling back down into MVFR during the
evening and into ifr late tonight and early Sunday morning. There
remains low potential for freezing drizzle while the front is nearby
to the south and as it moves back northward during Sunday morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight through Sunday morning.

Moderate Sunday afternoon.

* low for freezing drizzle precip type tonight through Sunday
morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 354 am est Sat dec 16 2017
discussion...

southeast michigan residing within an energetic mid level northwest
flow early this morning, sandwiched between an exiting clipper
system shearing away from northern lake huron and shortwave ridging
easing into the plains. Weak frontal boundary embedded within the
resultant contracted height gradient responding much more
dynamically than anticipated 24 hours ago, as fgen forcing reacts
favorably to a period of left exit region upper jet dynamics and
weak isentropic ascent within the 925-700 mb layer. The net result
is a widespread area of light to briefly moderate snowfall impacting
a broad corridor between i-94 and the tri-cities this morning.

Latest hi-res and local probabilistic model output direct the
greatest response across western portions of the i-69 and m-59
corridors areas west of i-75 , where accumulation potential upwards
of 2 inches will be plausible through the morning. Elsewhere,
accumulation within the half to inch range certainly in play, with
some southward drift of the frontal slope back down into the arb-dtw
corridor expected as forcing starts to wane late morning early
afternoon.

Large scale ascent becomes quite limited this afternoon. However,
moisture remains plentiful up through the nearly stationary 850-925
mb frontal slope parked overhead. This suggests there remains some
potential for a more contracted region of light snow showers or
flurries to persist this afternoon and evening, as continued mid
level southwest flow sustains very weak moist isentropic ascent
across the frontal slope. Worth noting that a warming mid level
environment above the boundary will start to introduce concerns for
potential loss of ice nucleation, as column saturation may
eventually shift above the -8c isotherm. Thus, not out of the
question for a period of patchy freezing drizzle to emerge directly
below the frontal interface. Favored locations for late day activity
aligned somewhere within the m-59 to i-94 corridor, where the
boundary is projected to reside.

Fairly neutral pattern for near surface thermal advection today,
given retention of a light easterly flow and the extensive cloud
deck. A general modification of the existing air mass under building
heights off the midweek arctic plunge will still bring afternoon
highs back to near or a touch above those noted yesterday. Readings
will range from mid 20s north to near freezing close to the ohio
border.

Pesky frontal boundary lifts north tonight in response to increasing
mid level warm air advection as shortwave ridging folds into the
area. Some light snow showers flurries patchy freezing drizzle
remains a possibility as this process unfolds, focus shifting north
of m-59 overnight. Little to no accumulation anticipated. High
pressure anchored north of lake huron will retain easterly flow at
the surface, ensuring a standard nocturnal cooling response
commences as opposed to a warming surface layer. Lows bottoming out
in the mid teens to lower 20s Sunday morning.

Relatively benign conditions for the bulk of the Sunday period, the
region positioned between departing upper ridge and a deamplifying
southern stream shortwave shearing out of the southern plains.

Recent model guidance trending toward the south with this wave,
simply providing far southern lower michigan with a glancing shot
late Sunday. Weak but sustained warm air advection preceding this
system will lift enough of the thermal profile above freezing to
support mainly light rain should the northern extent of any
attendant forcing manage to clip the region late afternoon early
evening. Highs on Sunday lower to middle 30s.

A brief transition of the larger scale pattern toward lower
amplitude westerlies will provide a period of milder conditions -
relative to this recent stretch - for the early week period. The
modest recovery in upper heights combined with continued low level
southwest flow will bring highs to around or just above normal on
Monday upper 30s-lower 40s . Northern stream wave shearing across
southern canada will send a moisture starved weak cold front through
the region sometime within the Monday night or Tuesday period.

Perhaps a few light rain or snow showers depending on the timing,
but largely looking at benign stretch of weather given the lack of
meaningful forcing or cold air advection to generate a potential
lake effect contribution. High pressure dominates Wednesday, with
attention then turning to a possible stronger system to finish the
week.

Marine...

a cold frontal trough is currently draped across the central great
lakes and is slowly drifting southward this morning. Outside of some
snow showers, the front will feature a wind shift from southwesterly
to easterly this afternoon. Winds on either side of the boundary are
less than 20 knots with waves on their way down. High pressure will
slide across the northern great lakes today and tonight leading to
continued light winds through the rest of the weekend.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Mr
marine... ... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi52 min NE 8.9 G 12 23°F 1016.3 hPa (+1.1)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi72 min N 14 G 18 23°F 1016.6 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi72 min N 7 G 11 22°F 1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi59 minE 610.00 miOvercast24°F19°F84%1017.7 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi57 minENE 410.00 miOvercast23°F21°F93%1016.3 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi57 minENE 410.00 miOvercast23°F18°F82%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW15W12W15
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W17W12W12W10W9W5SW5S5SW5SW6SW4S4CalmCalmCalmNE3NE3NE3NE6NE5E6
1 day agoSW8SW5SW5SW6S5S7S5SW8SW7SW6SW5S7S7S7S7S7S6S7S9S12S10SW12SW13W12
2 days agoE10E13E14E10NE11NE11NE11NE15N13N13N15N15N13N13N12NW9NW7NW6NW4SW6W6SW6SW10SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.