Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 5:35PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 12:34 PM EST (17:34 UTC) Moonrise 8:53PMMoonset 9:52AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ462 Expires:201901232100;;803581 Fzus63 Kdtx 231454 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 954 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Low pressure, 29.80 inches, will lift from central illinois this morning to central lake huron this afternoon, deepening to 29.50 inches. The low will lift northeast to quebec tonight. Weak high pressure will then expand across the region on Thursday. An arctic cold front will traverse the great lakes Thursday night. A surface trough will then linger over the region into Saturday. Lhz363-462>464-232100- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 954 am est Wed jan 23 2019
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Rain and snow. Drizzle in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots veering to the west after midnight. Drizzle early in the evening. Rain early in the evening. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Numerous snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots in the late evening and overnight. Heavy freezing spray. Numerous snow showers in the evening. Scattered snow showers after midnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet building to 8 to 12 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Friday..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Heavy freezing spray until late afternoon. A chance of snow showers. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet late in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots until early morning. A chance of snow early in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of snow. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
LHZ462


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville city, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 231708
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1208 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Update
As of 1205 pm est... Have allowed the winter weather advisory to
expire at noon for areas north of i-69. Observational trends support
temperatures warming into the mid upper 30s heading into the
afternoon, which will largely support a transition to rain in these
areas with perhaps a few lingering wet snowflakes mixed in. Any
additional snow accumulations will be less than one inch. Rest of
forecast remains unchanged and previous discussion highlights in
further detail below.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1013 am est Wed jan 23 2019
update...

as of 1010 am est... Surface low pressure center now located near the
southwest michigan northern indiana border continues to slowly track
northeast into lower michigan, with expansive precipitation shield
out ahead of it across southeast michigan. Surface temperatures
continue to slowly warm into the mid 30s, with a few upper 30s now
being reported closer to the ohio border. The system warm sector has
now lifted northward to roughly the i-69 corridor, allowing for
precipitation type to transition to rain across much of the region.

The exception has been north of i-69, where a few more hours of wet
snow will be possible with additional accumulations of 1-2 inches
before a full transition to rain. The winter weather advisory for
this area will continue to remain in effect until noon.

Despite surface temperatures finally warming above freezing, road
temperatures have been slower to respond, and where ice accumulated
on roadways from last night (primarily south of m-59), there will
continue to be hazardous and slick travel conditions through the
remainder of the morning hours. Will continue to closely monitor
trends and issue special weather statements as needed.

Low pressure center will track northeast over the saginaw valley this
afternoon and into central lake huron this evening. Temperatures will
peak to around 40 for a large portion of the region before the
arrival of the cold front mid late afternoon. Steadier rain will
gradually taper off to light showers and periods of drizzle during
the afternoon hours before the dry slot punches through by this
evening bringing an end to precipitation. There looks to be a few
hour window of enhanced momentum transport near the surface
accompanying the dry slot, although it will be augmented to an extent
by residual high boundary layer stability. Still, from 4pm-8pm could
see wind gusts briefly uptick to around 30 mph. The increasing winds
will help to dry out roads a bit, with a low potential for black ice
formation that will continue to be assessed with the afternoon
forecast package.

Prev discussion...

issued at 549 am est Wed jan 23 2019
aviation...

during the early morning hours, there was a consolidation in the
precipitation to a band of rain freezing rain between ptk and fnt,
with precipitation waning or even ending elsewhere. Regional radar
shows a second batch of precipitation heading toward SE mi with the
approach of the low pressure center, which will overspread the
terminals between 12z and 15z. With sfc temps above freezing,
precipitation will be all rain from fnt southward. As for mbs, the
next round of precip will largely be snow, with thermal profiles
suggesting a change over to rain by late morning. Ongoing low level
moisture advection will sustain ifr and some lifr ceilings into the
afternoon. The surface low will pass across mbs around 18z, with
deep layer moisture stripping away leaving drizzle and low clouds to
persist through the afternoon. The associated cold front will pass
across SE mi around 00z, leading to a brief uptick in winds as they
veer from south-southwest to west.

For dtw... Temperatures will make a slow climb into the upper 30s
toward noon. The coverage and intensity of the rain will increase
during the morning before tapering to drizzle early this afternoon.

There will be a modest uptick in the south winds this afternoon as
metro enters the warm sector. This will also be accompanied by a
slight uptick in ceiling heights.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in precip type being all rain through the rest of the day.

* high for ceilings below 5000 today and tonight.

Prev discussion...

issued at 235 am est Wed jan 23 2019
discussion...

the remnant dry arctic airmass in the low levels has remained
stubborn, with dew pts still holding in the upper 20s to around 30
degrees as of 1 am, allowing for evaporative cooling and the rise in
surface temperatures has been slow, but steady. The main surface low
is now tracking through northern illinois, and temperatures have
risen above freezing across southwest lower michigan and extending
east into the i-94 corridor.

The strong low level jet last evening was aligned sw-ne and the core
was just south of eight mile road, leading to the bulk of
precipitation falling south of i-69 with good 850 mb fgen. However,
as the upper level forcing and low enters the state this morning, it
appears there will still be just enough cold air to support snow
across midland bay counties and into huron county through and past
12z as the low level baroclinic zone tightens up, and do think a
good burst of snow will occur and will be extending the advisory to
noon for northern third of the cwa, but especially geared toward the
far northern counties, as local probabilistic SREF weighted guidance
does suggest 3 to 5 inches of snow accumulation. With support from
arw and nam, will carry storm totals of 3 to 6 inches before
precipitation tapers off early this afternoon or temps rise AOA 32
degrees.

For middle southern tier of counties, will continue with the
advisory til 8 am, but temperatures have already reached around 32
degrees. Keep in mind, frozen gravel dirt roads will likely remain
very icy, even as temps rise into the mid 30s.

Rain this morning for most areas will taper off as the mid level dry
slot overspreads the CWA this afternoon, but still could be enough
low level moisture to support drizzle very light rain. Still
expecting highs to reach around 40 lower 40s based on upstream obs
and southwest winds kicking in for majority of the cwa. Exception
being tri-cities region where the low is expected to track, which
could hold temps in the 30s.

Winds veering around to the west-northwest will allow good cold
advection to kick in this evening behind the departing low, with 850
mb temps lowering into the negative lower teens around midnight. Any
residual moisture on untreated roadways will likely freeze as min
temps look to bottom in the lower 20s.

Digging upper level trough pushing into the western great lakes
during the the day on Thursday, and the forcing 850 mb theta-e ahead
of this trough, coupled with the sufficiently cold 850 mb temps,
dropping into the negative upper teens over lake michigan, should
support a blossoming pattern of snow showers in the afternoon into
the evening hours, as inversion heights are up around 7 kft. Steep
low level lapse rates decent CAPE (25-50 j kg) intersecting the dgz
will support light accumulations, 0.5-1.0" on average.

Bitter cold will continue to filter in for Thursday night into
Friday, as 850 mb temps bottom out around -25 c once again. Unlike
our last arctic airmass, the flow is westerly with this one, so
clouds modification from lake michigan may be able to hold temps
above zero Friday night, especially as clipper system tracks through
the northern ohio valley, bringing additional mid high clouds. Even
if temperatures somehow manage to hold in the zero to 5 f range,
enough wind 10-15 mph to support wind chills down around
-15 f, and there is a good chance wind chill advisory will be needed.

The clipper looks to be tracking south of the state, so not planning
on adversing more than perhaps an inch by the southern michigan
border. Re-enforcing shot of arctic air to follow behind the low for
Saturday with 850 mb temps holding in the low mid negative 20s.

There looks to be an opportunity for skies to briefly clear out
Saturday evening as flow GOES southwest, and temps below zero look
possible, but clouds should then be increasing once again as another
trough axis pushes into the western great lakes, with low pressure
sliding through the eastern ohio valley, a near miss.

The cold pool 500 mb trough axis extending from the deep upper level
low over ontario will move overhead on Sunday, with what looks to be
a stronger clipper arriving on Monday. Euro and other models have
been consistent with this system for several cycles now, and with
favorable thermal profiles and high snow to liquid ratios, a
significant snowstorm appears possible.

Marine...

low pressure will lift from the southern plains to northern illinois
by Wednesday morning. The low will then traverse central lower
michigan during the day Wednesday. There will be a strengthening
southerly gradient ahead of this low pressure system. Gale force
winds will persist into early this evening. While probabilities
remain high that gusts will reach 35 knot gales, the probability for
gusts to 40 knots gales is low. The winds will gradually decrease
tonight due both to a subtle weakening of the gradient and low level
warming, thus reducing over-lake mixing depths. Winds will veer to
the west-northwest late Wednesday into Wed night as the surface low
departs east of lake huron.

Another intrusion of arctic air is forecast to overspread the great
lakes thurs night into Friday. This will bring another round of
gusty winds (possibly gale force) and high probabilities of heavy
freezing spray.

Hydrology...

precipitation will come to an end across southeast michigan during
the course of the day. Total liquid equivalent precip amounts are
likely to be highly variable across the region, ranging from a
quarter inch up to three quarters of an inch. The combination of
melting snow and rain may lead to some ponding of water on urban
roads across metro detroit. Otherwise, no flooding concerns are
expected.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Update... ... .Irl
aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Sc
hydrology... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi35 min SE 8.9 G 11 33°F 1002 hPa (-4.8)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi55 min ESE 8.9 G 8.9 32°F 1004.1 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi55 min N 1 G 4.1 33°F 1004.1 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi42 minSSE 40.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist35°F35°F100%1002.9 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi39 minSSE 62.00 miFog/Mist34°F33°F100%1002 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi39 minN 01.75 miUnknown Precip34°F32°F96%1002 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS12
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S13S11S9S10S10S7S8S6S7S5S3S4S4S7S5S6SE3SE4NE6E5SE8SE5SE4
1 day agoCalmSW3SW5CalmCalmSW3S4S3S4SE5S5S6--S8S8S7SE9S10S8S8S10SE13SE11S12
G19
2 days agoN13N11N14N13NW12NW12N12N7N11N13N12NW12NW11NW11NW10NW11N11N9NW7NW7NW7W6W5NW3

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.