Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 9:05PM Thursday May 24, 2018 10:05 AM EDT (14:05 UTC) Moonrise 2:56PMMoonset 2:49AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ462 Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 945 Am Edt Thu May 24 2018
Rest of today..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight...then building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots in the morning becoming light and variable...then becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon becoming light and variable. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the north. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ462 Expires:201805242015;;455638 FZUS63 KDTX 241345 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 945 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.20 inches, will move from Lake Erie today to the Mid Atlantic tonight. A cold front, average pressure, 29.60 inches, will sink south from northern Ontario into Lake Superior on Friday. This front will slowly push into Lake Huron on Saturday. It will then weaken as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes during the latter half of the weekend. LHZ363-462>464-242015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville city, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 241047
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
647 am edt Thu may 24 2018

Aviation
High pressure will maintain light winds through the morning. There
will be a slight increase (6-10 knots) in ssw winds from ptk
northward during the afternoon as the center of the sfc high drifts
to the east, opening the door to weak return flow.

For dtw... The weak flow will allow a lake breeze to push inland off
lake erie during the afternoon. Model solutions suggest this will
occur around 21z and will be marked by a wind shift to the southeast
with a modest uptick in speed.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 250 am edt Thu may 24 2018
discussion...

upper level ridge axis sliding east and arriving over the central
great lakes on Friday (582 dam at 500 mb) will support a continued
warming trend and sunshine, as low level southwest winds also ramp
up, helping to limit lake breeze development during the afternoon
hours. Interestingly, the current average lake huron water
temperature is the coldest since 2014. Both northern and southern
lake huron buoys checking in with a chilly 37 degree water temp.

With the mild maxes yesterday, predominately in the 78-82 degree
range (all 3 climate sites hit 81 degrees), and some drying of the
boundary layer, coupled with the longer fall needed for temps to
reach dew pts, fog has not been an issue this morning, but still a
couple more hours to generate some patchy light fog before sunrise.

See no reason why highs will not climb into the 82-85 degree range
today, as 850 mb temps hit 14+ c and light southwest surface winds
attempt to develop. Deeper and greater low level southwest return
flow for Friday, and highs in the 85 to 88 degree range appears in
the offing, as 850 mb temps push toward 17 c.

Becoming humid (dew pts in 60s) and unsettled for the weekend, as
euro indicated a weak shortwave trough already rolling through
Friday night, which will usher in higher moisture content, bringing
the first chance of showers and thunderstorms with showalter index
lowering to -1 to -3 c. Moisture axis (pw values up to 1.50 inches)
in place on Saturday, with surface heating leading to mlcapes of at
least 1 j kg, but potentially higher depending on amount of
clouds convective debris. Fortunately, 0-6 km bulk shear looks weak,
under 20 knots, thus heavy rain producers will be main hazard, unless
capes reach toward 2000 j kg, then pulse severe will be possible.

Main upper level wave trough to track through the northern great
lakes on Sunday, with better 0-6 km shear in place, 20 to 30 knots,
with mlcapes again reaching at least around 1500 j kg. Outgoing
forecast for Sunday may be too low with pops.

Latest trends (00z euro gfs) suggests the surface cold front will be
reaching the southern michigan border early Monday afternoon and
tending to wash out with no upper level support to work with, as 500
mb heights actually rise slightly. It looks doubtful there will be
any activity over southeast michigan during Monday before the front
slips south, and large area of high pressure builds in for Monday
night Tuesday, with return flow (increasing low level
moisture humidity) and warmth for Wednesday.

Marine...

high pressure will slowly push south from lower mi into lake erie
this morning. This will result in the development of light west-
southwest winds across northern lake huron. The resulting moisture
advection atop the cold lake waters is likely to result in some fog,
possibly affecting much of northern lake huron today. Otherwise, the
high pressure will sustain relatively light winds. The sfc high will
drift to the east coast by Friday. This will establish light south-
southwest winds across the lakes tonight into early Saturday. A slow
moving front will then slide into the northern great lakes from the
north on Saturday, resulting in light winds and providing a chance
for thunderstorms. The front will wash out over the region toward
the end of the weekend as high pressure expands back into the great
lakes.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Dense fog advisory until 3 pm edt this afternoon for lhz361-362.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi65 min SSW 6 G 6 62°F 1023 hPa (+1.3)
45163 26 mi45 min SSE 1.9 G 3.9 71°F 58°F
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi63 min Calm G 7 62°F 1024 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi85 min SSE 1 G 1.9 61°F 1023.4 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi72 minSW 410.00 miFair67°F55°F66%1023.6 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi70 minSW 310.00 miFair66°F53°F64%1023.7 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair65°F54°F69%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N54CalmSW33SW5SW6SW5SW9S5SW5W7W8W9W9NW6CalmW4SW3W3W3SW4SW3
1 day agoW5CalmN9N8NW7N8NW4CalmCalmS3S3S4SW5SW3SW3W5SW3W6W3W4W5SW3Calm3
2 days agoE8E11E8SE8SE8E6N6NE8NE7E6NE5NE5E8E7SE9SE4E6NE5NE4CalmCalmCalmSW3W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.