Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 5:07PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 2:26 PM EST (19:26 UTC) Moonrise 4:06PMMoonset 4:21AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ462 Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 950 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
.gale warning in effect from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon...
Rest of today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A chance of snow showers late in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming west 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 40 knot gales after midnight. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 9 feet in the late evening and overnight. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knot gales decreasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales in the late morning and afternoon. A chance of snow showers early in the morning. Freezing spray. Waves 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Freezing spray until early morning. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the east late in the morning...then becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon increasing to 20 to 25 knots late in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 9 feet late in the evening. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Friday..South winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers early in the morning...then showers likely late in the morning. A chance of showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
LHZ462 Expires:201811202115;;590663 FZUS63 KDTX 201450 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 950 AM EST Tue Nov 20 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.40 inches, builds from the Midwest into the Ohio valley today while low pressure, 29.80 inches, reaches eastern Lake Superior by this evening. The associated cold front sweeps through the central Great Lakes tonight with northwest gales likely into Wednesday. Strong high pressure, near 30.70 inches, then builds into the region Wednesday night and Thursday and moves quickly eastward by Friday. LHZ362-363-462-463-202115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville city, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 201747
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1247 pm est Tue nov 20 2018

Aviation
Active subsidence throughout a greater part of the atmosphere was
very efficient in scouring out cloud in the wake of the overnight
shortwave energy. Growth of the mixed layer diurnally with some
preconditioned air mass off of lake michigan has resulted in some
stratocumulus development particularly north of I 69. It will be
more difficult to observe the boundary layer cloud for the southern
forecast area due to the dry northwest flow. Mid cloud is expected
to increase this evening ahead of the next approaching arctic
frontal boundary. For tonight, the potential will exist again for
light snow or flurries activity. Problem with the setup tonight is
that moisture quality and depth of supersaturation with respect to
ice is not as great. For that reason not expecting coverage to be
anything like last night. Rather, will be a potential for some
widely scattered snow showers along and immediately behind the wind
shift. Most likely time window for activity appears set for 11-14z.

Westerly gradient flow will increase this evening reaching and
exceeding 20 knots.

For dtw... Boundary layer cloud will likely be anemic this afternoon
with dry northwest flow. Next arctic front will bring increase in
moisture late and a potential for light snow shower or flurries
between 11-14z.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less this afternoon and high tonight.

* low for northwest wind exceeding crosswind threshold today.

Prev discussion
Issued at 313 am est Tue nov 20 2018
discussion...

near term today through tonight
as of 310 am est... Arctic boundary continues to push southeast
across the region early this morning, noted by a marked 850 hpa
temperature gradient of around -3c ahead of the boundary and -15c
across northern lower. Arrival of northern stream PV energy coupled
with right entrance region dynamics of the polar jet has allowed for
a fairly decent fgen response and flare up in coverage of light to
moderate snow across much of southeast michigan. Surface
temperatures near freezing, however, have limited accumulation
potential especially on paved surfaces, despite large flake size
observed locally at the office thanks in part to efficient snow
microphysics. The result has been mainly wet roadways across the
region, with the exception of some slushy accumulation on less
traveled roads.

The boundary will continue to push across the region the remainder
of the overnight period, and be east of the immediate region by
sunrise. Light snow will continue through roughly 12z especially
south and east of a sandusky flint owosso line, boosted in part by
the upper-level trough axis swinging through and allowing for some
ana-front post-frontal activity. Accumulation will be light in
nature, with most areas struggling to see an inch of total
accumulation that will mainly be on grassy surfaces. The exception
will be in the thumb closer to the lake huron shoreline where post-
front northwesterly flow convergence will aid in some enhanced lake
effect activity to result in an inch or two of accumulation.

Despite post-front surface ridging today, plenty of cloud cover will
still be around in cold air advective flow as supported by upstream
observations. Model guidance appears to be bullish with potential
clearing late this morning into the afternoon, as hi-res soundings
continue to depict ample-enough boundary layer moisture trapped
within the inversion layer strengthened by increasing midlevel
subsidence. Not expecting a day full of dreary stratus, but likely
more in the way of early stratus giving way to broken stratocu for a
time this afternoon. The periodic breaks in sunshine will do little
to provide a bump in high temperatures due to the frigid
aforementioned 850 hpa temps. Thus, high temperatures will struggle
to reach the freezing mark for most areas north of the m-59
corridor. A brisk northwesterly wind will add to the chill in the
air as wind chills dip solidly into the teens.

Any breaks in sunshine quickly disappear by this evening, as mid and
high clouds quickly overspread the region from the north ahead of a
second frontal boundary that will progress across the region
tonight. This frontal boundary will be in association with a clipper-
type surface wave diving southeast across georgian bay into ontario.

All indications continue to lead to a mainly dry frontal passage and
minimal, if any, accumulations accompanying widely scattered snow
showers. Low temperatures will only fall a few degrees from midday
highs due to increased cloud cover, with widespread mid upper 20s
common. It will feel much colder than that as west southwest winds
ramp up with the frontal passage and gusts of 20-30 mph are common.

Short term Wednesday through Friday night
the second front will act to further strengthen the thermal trough
in place over the region, with continued cold temperatures for the
midweek period. Some lake effect snow showers will be possible
Wednesday into Thursday for portions of the thumb, otherwise dry
weather will prevail over the region as strong high pressure builds
over the central great lakes. High temperatures Wednesday will again
struggle to reach the freezing mark. As the high settles just east
of the region Wednesday night, there is the potential for a window
of enhanced scouring of clouds which would allow lows to plummet
well into the teens. Currently forecasting mid to upper teens for
lows Wednesday night, but if greater clearing does materialize,
would not be surprised to see some single digit lows in interior
portions of the saginaw valley.

Quiet, but cold weather is forecast for the thanksgiving holiday,
with high temperatures struggling to make it into the upper 20s and
mid 20s for the thumb. Low temperatures Thursday night will fall
into the low mid 20s.

Friday will mark a transition day across much of the CONUS as strong
pacific energy leads to a pattern shift and strong downstream flow
amplification over the eastern two-thirds of the country. Continued
dry weather will prevail with shortwave ridging passing by aloft.

Increasing low-level southwesterly flow will allow for a moderation
in temperatures as highs make a run at 40.

Long term Saturday through Monday
long range guidance continues to indicate a very active pattern for
the long term period. The GFS and ECMWF are starting to come into
better agreement with the evolution of the pacific energy ejecting
out of the rockies and its interaction with an energized subtropical
jet. Confidence is beginning to increase that Saturday will be an
all-rain scenario as any phasing of the northern and southern
streams looks to be east of the immediate region allowing for more
mild air to remain in place. As this first system exits by Sunday,
only a brief reprieve looks to be in store as additional pacific
energy ejecting out of the rockies results in potentially deep low
pressure developing in the mid-mississippi valley. Still plenty of
time to watch this system unfold as it impacts the region for early
next week, with the exact synoptic evolution and track having
significant implications on ptype.

Marine...

the gale watch is upgraded to a warning for tonight and Wednesday
across the open waters of lake huron. Small craft advisories are
extended through Wednesday night. A cold front exiting the central
great lakes this morning is leaving sub-gale northerly wind and high
waves ongoing across lake huron. This will be followed by a quick
progression of high pressure and backing of the wind to southwest
during the afternoon. Southwest wind then increases to near 30 knots
this evening as the next low pressure system reaches eastern lake
superior. This system sweeps a stronger cold front across the region
tonight which brings a 40 kt northwest gale to the open waters with
waves exceeding 15 feet through Wednesday morning. Marine conditions
remain unsettled Wednesday night as high pressure builds into the
central great lakes. The high moves quickly across lake huron during
thanksgiving leaving increasing south wind to finish the week.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning from midnight tonight to 4 pm est Wednesday for lhz362-
363-462-463.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am est Thursday
for lhz421-441>443.

Gale warning from midnight tonight to 10 am est Wednesday for
lhz361.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Wednesday for lhz422.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Irl
marine... ... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi27 min W 9.9 G 15 27°F 1018.6 hPa (-2.4)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi47 min WSW 11 G 15 25°F 1019.3 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi47 min WSW 8.9 G 15 26°F 1019 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi34 minWSW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy30°F14°F51%1020.6 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi32 minW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy30°F14°F51%1019.6 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi32 minWNW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy31°F14°F51%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW12SW9SW7SW5W7NW5NW4NW5N5N9N15N14N15N10N11N10N10NW7NW6N6NW5N7NW8W10
1 day agoSW9SW10SW10SW6SW6SW7W8SW7SW8SW4SW6SW5S3S4SW6S4S5S5S7S7S7SW9SW9SW7
2 days agoSW6NW5N6N6NE3NE3NE3NE3N4NE5N4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmSE3S4CalmS6SW8SW7SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.