Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 7:54PM Monday March 25, 2019 7:53 PM EDT (23:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:28AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ462 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 320 Pm Edt Mon Mar 25 2019
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet in the late evening and overnight. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Tuesday night..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon...then veering to the northwest late in the evening. Rain likely early in the morning. A chance of rain early in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable...then becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots until early morning. Rain likely until early morning. Snow likely late in the evening...then snow after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming north 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales until early morning. Rain and snow...then a chance of rain and snow in the late evening and early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 6 to 9 feet until early morning. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
LHZ462 Expires:201903260815;;330732 FZUS63 KDTX 251920 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 320 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure at 30.50 inches will build directly over the Great Lakes region Monday through Wednesday. A strengthening low pressure system, 29.20 inches, will track across central Canada by Thursday, driving a cold front through the Central Lakes. LHZ462>464-260815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville city, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 252256
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
656 pm edt Mon mar 25 2019

Aviation
North-northeast wind speeds will decrease a bit (below 6kts)
around shortly after 00z with the loss in diurnal heating and
subsequent boundary layer cooling. Strong high pressure will expand
across the state on Tuesday, supporting light north-northeast winds
through the day. Very dry air will keep skies clear through the taf
period.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 329 pm edt Mon mar 25 2019
discussion...

combination of building upper level ridge and existing confluent
flow aloft gradually ushers cool canadian airmass east of the area
during the next 36 hours as the upper pattern progresses along. In
the meantime, deep layer subsidence and building surface high
pressure will ensure cloud free skies through Tuesday while 850mb
temperatures stubbornly hover near -8c. The Sun angle is high enough
to argue for very modest airmass modification, but little more. Thus
highs on Tuesday will likely be just a couple degrees warmer than
today at best. Slackening northeast flow coincident with 1030mb high
pressure translating overhead will provide an exception over the
interior thumb where temps will have the potential to climb several
degrees over today, into the mid 40s, by the end of the peak heating
period. Diurnal temperature range will be typical of early spring,
with lows under calm winds and clear skies falling into the teens
tonight degrees per 12z met mav blend, providing good continuity
with the inherited forecast. Confidence is bolstered by dewpoints
already in the teens and continuing to fall. Lowered Tuesday night's
old blended grids several degrees as weakly defined nocturnal return
flow will do little to inhibit radiating. Modest coverage of
mid high cloud associated otherwise inconsequential weak mid-level
troughing will at least put a floor on low temps in the low 20s.

Again, no issues with met mav blend. Stout southwest return flow
will be well underway on Wednesday while a more mild airmass
characterized by 850mb temps nearing 0c completes its eastward trek
from the upper plains to the lower peninsula. Highs no worse than 50
degrees in most spots.

A weak cold frontal boundary will push south across michigan before
stalling somewhere across northern lower or farther south, closer to
the metro region, which will provide the chance to see rain showers
starting Thursday morning. Prior to feeling the impacts of the cold
front, temperatures will warm up nicely with daytime highs peaking
in the mid to upper-50s. The chance for rain will persist late
Thursday into Friday morning, mainly across the metro area and north
of towards flint and port huron, as the cold front settles across
southern michigan. The advancing cold front will bring in cooler air
Friday as highs will struggle to push past the upper-40s.

A low pressure system will then advance northeast from northern
tx ok into wisconsin Friday morning into Saturday morning,
strengthening slightly from 1006mb down to 1000 mb and will cause
the stalled frontal boundary to retreat back towards the north. This
will set up a baroclinic zone across southern michigan, however, at
this time uncertainty remains high as to where exactly the front
will stall which will have impacts on temperatures and area where
more persistent heavier rain will fall. Latest 12z GFS model run
sets up h850 temperatures up to 8c across the mi oh border and near
0c over bay midland county. The canadian and ECMWF shows a similar
set- up, although with a gentler temperature gradient. In any case,
additional model runs will be needed to pinpoint where the frontal
boundary will set up. Otherwise, precipitation will turn likely
Saturday morning and afternoon as low pressure travels across
michigan. A wintry mix and or snow will be possible early Saturday
and again late Saturday as temperatures may drop into the low to mid-
30s.

The passage of the low pressure system will allow a strong cold
front to push across michigan Sunday, with h850 temperatures
dropping down to an average of -11c by Sunday afternoon. Temperature
highs failing to peak beyond 40 degrees for the day will not be out
of the question. Otherwise, a broad high pressure system will fill in
across the central plains up into the great lakes early next week
and will bring a period of dry weather.

Marine...

canadian high pressure will build into the area this evening and
tonight and persist across the region through Wednesday. This will
bring favorable marine conditions in terms of winds and wave into
Wednesday. Southwest flow is then expected to increase significantly
Wednesday night and Thursday as the center of high pressure drifts
to the atlantic seaboard.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Dg am
marine... ... .Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi53 min ENE 6 G 7 31°F 1024.4 hPa (-0.3)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi49 min E 6 G 8 30°F 1025.7 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi73 min SE 4.1 G 7 31°F 1025.1 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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N7
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N11
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G27
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G12
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G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi60 minN 010.00 miFair40°F16°F38%1025.4 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair41°F14°F33%1024.7 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi58 minNNW 910.00 miFair41°F4°F21%1024.7 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE19NE15
G24
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NE14NE10NE9NE12NE10NE10NE8N9N9N10N11NE14NE17NE12NE11NE5--E7CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW9SW8SW9SW8SW7SW7SW7SW9SW9SW9SW9SW8SW6SW7SW8SW7SW10SW10W10W11NW11W12W11--
2 days agoNW14NW12NW12NW11N13NW9NW8NW6NW6NW7W6NW6W5W7NW5W7SW7SW9SW10SW12
G18
SW10
G18
SW14
G17
W10SW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.