Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hart, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 5:20PM Saturday November 17, 2018 3:12 PM EST (20:12 UTC) Moonrise 2:58PMMoonset 1:24AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 239 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering east 5 to 10 knots late at night, then backing west toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds to 30 knots veering west 15 to 20 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ848 Expires:201811180415;;453439 FZUS53 KGRR 171939 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 239 PM EST Sat Nov 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ848-180415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hart, MI
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location: 43.66, -86.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 171911
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
211 pm est Sat nov 17 2018
latest update...

synopsis discussion marine hydro

Synopsis
Issued at 211 pm est Sat nov 17 2018
no major changes were made to the forecast, but the most potentially-
impactful interesting elements are as follows:
- a light rain snow mix may continue south of i-94 through early
Sunday morning with minimal impacts expected
- two clipper systems will impact lower michigan late Monday night
through Wednesday morning, though thanksgiving travel impacts appear
unlikely at this time.

- warmer temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday with rain
chances increasing during the latter.

Discussion (this evening through next Saturday)
issued at 211 pm est Sat nov 17 2018
radar returns associated with light snow have been fading quickly
this afternoon as the low-level lift (what little there was) scoots
south of i-94. Looking north, a few light lake effect snow
showers flurries that developed in a lake-superior modified airmass
over lake michigan continue to drift over areas mainly north of us-
10. All in all, not much in the way of impactful weather is
happening today across lower michigan which is a welcome change
after an active week.

Forecast model guidance suggests that weak frontogenetical forcing
will persist on and off this afternoon through early Sunday morning
south of i-94, leading to a continuation of low-end pops for periods
of non-impactful light snow of flurries (though light rain may mix
with snow this afternoon given both dry and dew point temperatures
have warmed above the 32 degree mark). The lake-effect snow showers
up north will fade this evening but there is a signal that western
portions of mason and oceana counties may pick up a dusting
overnight under more persistent showers.

Attention will then turn to two clipper systems expected to bring
periods of light snow to lower michigan early next week before
thanksgiving. The first system will pass through Monday night and
into Tuesday with the second on its heels Tuesday night and into
Wednesday morning. Both have the potential to drop a quick dusting
to half inch of snow north of i-96 with perhaps a few inches north
of us-10. At this point, the daylight hours of both Tuesday and
Wednesday look to be dry but those planning to travel (especially
north) are strongly encouraged to stay up to date on the forecast as
it doesn't take much snow to cause a travel headache.

The much anticipated "warm-up" is still on track but a bit later
than in previous forecasts. While thanksgiving day will stay on the
cool side with highs in the mid 30s, the warmer temperatures will
arrive Friday and Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 40s (50
not out of question). Precipitation chances (liquid this time) will
increase Saturday as a rather deep but short-wavelength trough
swings through the great lakes. It's also worth noting that there
continues to be a strong signal that the clouds will break from mid-
afternoon thanksgiving day through mid afternoon black
Friday... Perfect to soak up the Sun during an after-meal walk or
shopping outside.

Ensemble forecasts from both the GEFS and ECMWF suggests a typical
early-winter pattern will return to the great lakes for the end of
november with seasonable temperatures and periodic chances for
frozen precipitation.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1153 am est Sat nov 17 2018
light snow and associated ifr visibilities (1-3 miles) will end
from northwest to southeast this afternoon, with mkg grr lan
starting off with 6 mile or greater visibility at the beginning of
the TAF period and azo btl jxn following by 21z 4pm est. Ceilings
will be slower to recover, with mkg grr lan reaching 3500 ft or
so by mid afternoon. At jxn btl azo, MVFR ceilings of 2000 ft or
so are expected to persist through much of the TAF period with
very light rain and snow (e.G. No expected visibility
restrictions) continuing on and off through as late as 12z 7am est
Sunday. Toward the very end of the TAF period, ceilings will rise
considerably toVFR 15000 ft or above from northwest to
southeast. Winds will be light (at or below 5 knots) through the
entire TAF period starting northerly this afternoon, becoming
variable during the overnight hours, and turning westerly Sunday
morning.

Light to moderate aircraft icing will be possible within a layer
from 3000 to 9000 ft at all TAF sites (but possibly as high as
13000 ft at azo btl jxn) through the entire TAF period.

Marine
Issued at 211 pm est Sat nov 17 2018
winds and waves will be relatively calm through the weekend and
early next week. Tuesday night and Wednesday, winds and waves will
increase leading to hazardous conditions to small crafts. After a
brief reprieve Thursday, conditions will once again become hazardous
by late week.

Hydrology
Issued at 211 pm est Sat nov 17 2018
there are no hydrologic concerns through the next week as episodes
of rain and snow look light.

The threat for ice jams remains near zero through the next week as
daily average temperatures remain above 20 degrees. Warmer weather
is expected towards the end of next week.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Borchardt
discussion... Borchardt
aviation... Borchardt
hydrology... Hlo
marine... Borchardt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 20 mi42 min N 5.1 G 11 33°F 22°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 27 mi32 min NNW 15 G 19 33°F 1026.4 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 32 mi32 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 33°F 1027.6 hPa28°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI22 mi17 minN 710.00 miOvercast33°F24°F72%1025.7 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE6SE7SE5SE6S3SE5SE5S3SE4SE3SE5SW10SW7SW9
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2 days agoSW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4E3E5E4E4E5CalmE3SE9SE9SE6SE4SE6SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.