Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hart, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 9:17PM Sunday May 28, 2017 6:36 AM EDT (10:36 UTC) Moonrise 8:12AMMoonset 11:19PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 359 Am Edt Sun May 28 2017
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering northwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Memorial day..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. A slight chance of showers until midday, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
LMZ848 Expires:201705281515;;331118 FZUS53 KGRR 280759 NSHGRR NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 359 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ848-281515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hart, MI
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location: 43.66, -86.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 280730
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
330 am edt Sun may 28 2017
latest update...

synopsis short term long term marine

Synopsis
Issued at 330 am edt Sun may 28 2017
showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening
across southwest lower michigan. A few storms may reach severe
levels with large hail and damaging winds. The best chance for
storms will be this afternoon for areas along and east of u.S,
highway 131. The region will become more influenced by an upper low
over the next couple of days with a fair amount of cloudiness and
chances for showers especially during the afternoon and evening
hours of memorial day and Tuesday.

Short term (today through Tuesday)
issued at 330 am edt Sun may 28 2017
main short term focus is on the chances for thunderstorms today and
the threat for severe weather. Otherwise, we become under the
influence of an upper low for memorial day and Tuesday.

Perimeters seem to be coming together today to make showers and
thunderstorms likely with the chance for severe weather as well.

Main feature to key on is a compact, potent shortwave seen in the
water vapor imagery over minnesota. This shortwave is making steady
progress our direction and timing tools bring it into western lower
michigan near peak heating. So, convection will get a synoptic scale
boost despite cloud cover which may be present. Next feature of note
today is a weak surface low centered in southern illinois this
morning. The low lifts northeast through the day moving through
southern portions of the forecast area this afternoon. Low level
convergence aided by the low and its weak fronts may tend to focus
convection, especially from grand rapids to the south and east.

Feel the last few runs of the hrrrx have had too little in the way
of cape, with the 3kmnam being more realistic. The similated
reflectivity off of the 3kmnam over the last few runs has
consistently shown storms firing midday in the 16-18z time frame and
gradually sweeping to the east during the afternoon. CAPE values are
forecast to reach the 1000-2000 j kg range much of this owed to
cooling in the mid levels via the approaching shortwave. Any breaks
that occur resulting in diurnal heating will only be a bonus to the
convection. The 850mb LLJ is lacking, but that is made up for with a
40-50 knot mid level jet at 500mb's.

Bottom line, expecting scattered storms to develop in the early
afternoon becoming more numerous in the 18z to 21z time frame before
sweeping east towards evening. Severe weather appears possible given
decent instability and deep layer shear values on the order of 30-40
knots. Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats. Feel much of the area has a possibility of severe weather
with the highest likelihood being from the grand rapids metro area
to the east and south. These areas will have the best moisture
return at the surface and be in closest proximity to the surface low.

Beyond this evening, we move into our typical memorial day upper low
regime it seems. Memorial day into Tuesday we are looking at a fair
amount of cloud cover associated with the upper low with diurnally
driven showers. So, the showers and even an isolated thunderstorm
will be concentrated in the afternoon and evening hours of both
days. High temperatures will cool slightly from the 70s today, to
near 70 tomorrow and into the 60s for Tuesday.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 330 am edt Sun may 28 2017
a deep upper low will swing through the great lakes Tuesday night
and Wednesday. This will bring cooler air with highs in the mid 60s.

The best chance of rain will likely come toward the end of the week
and the weekend. A cold front is progd to move south from canada
Thursday night and the GFS and ECMWF show a wave developing on the
western flank over the eastern dakotas. Showers storms are possible
as the cold front moves through the CWA Friday and then again
Saturday as the wave moves east.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 113 am edt Sun may 28 2017
dry weather is expected overnight.VFR conditions expected through
the period. Showers and thunderstorms are most likely from 18-02z.

Marine
Issued at 330 am edt Sun may 28 2017
winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory criteria
today and tonight. The gradient tightens a bit though into memorial
day and Tuesday and we may see waves on the increase. Winds in the
lowest few thousand feet are in the 15-30 knot range over the lake
out of the west.

Hydrology
Issued at 210 pm edt Sat may 27 2017
river levels in the upper grand and the kalamazoo basins are running
above normal for late may while elsewhere the levels are closer to
normal. Rain totals around a half inch on Sunday will likely not be
enough to produce flooding. Occasional showers over the upcoming
week will be rather light.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Duke
short term... Duke
long term... 04
aviation... 04
hydrology... Cas
marine... Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 20 mi48 min WSW 1 G 7 59°F 51°F
45024 22 mi36 min WSW 3.9 G 3.9 55°F 51°F1009.8 hPa (-1.5)52°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 27 mi56 min S 6 G 8.9 56°F 1009.1 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 32 mi36 min SE 6 G 9.9 63°F 1007.4 hPa (-2.2)53°F
45161 34 mi36 min SE 3.9 G 3.9 57°F 55°F1007.8 hPa (-2.0)
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 42 mi56 min SE 4.1 G 6 58°F 1008.5 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI22 mi41 minN 010.00 miOvercast57°F51°F84%1008.1 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS3SE6W7W7W8W6SW7SW5SW3CalmSW6CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmSW4Calm
1 day agoCalmE3CalmCalmSW8W5W4W6W6W5W4W3SW8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN6N6NE5
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N10N10N4N4N4N3CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.