Sunday, July23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hart, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 9:17PM Sunday July 23, 2017 2:57 AM EDT (06:57 UTC) Moonrise 5:42AMMoonset 8:32PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 954 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots veering northeast late at night, then veering southeast toward daybreak. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers. Areas of fog through the night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds around 10 knots veering northwest. Areas of fog until midday. Mostly Sunny with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ848 Expires:201707230915;;676935 FZUS53 KGRR 230154 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 954 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ848-230915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hart, MI
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location: 43.66, -86.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 230602
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
202 am edt Sun jul 23 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 328 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017
generally fair weather will continue the next few days with the
exception of a few showers and thunderstorms tonight and Sunday
north and east of grand rapids. A cold front moving through Sunday
afternoon could drive some stronger thunderstorms towards lansing
and jackson.

Short term (this evening through Monday night)
issued at 328 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017
forecast challenge in the near term is for coverage of showers
tonight and potential for strong to severe storms Sunday mostly
east of grand rapids.

For tonight... Expect showers and isolated thunderstorms after
midnight across the northern zones as vigorous short wave trough
with closed upper low approaches in fast northwest flow regime.

This trough will also be driving a cold front through Sunday
evening. Sfc convergence ahead of the front combined with
afternoon instability and about 30 to 35 knots of 0 too 6 km shear
should be enough to generate a line of thunderstorms during the
afternoon.

The strong west to northwest sfc flow in the afternoon indicates
that lake modified air will be driven well inland leading to the
convective lake shadow effect and this is also indicated by the
ncar hiresw arw which has a line of strong convection forming
across the eastern forecast area around 18z to 20z and quickly
moving east. So the severe weather threat does appear limited to
the eastern zones on Sunday afternoon.

Once the storms go past there will be a few instability showers
remaining through Sunday night in cyclonic flow which could be
diurnally enhanced on Monday before the upper trough axis moves
east and sfc ridging builds in for Monday night.

Long term (Tuesday through Saturday)
issued at 328 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017
Tuesday will start off with high pressure overhead. This fair
weather system is predicted to track eastward through the day.

Near seasonable temperatures and dry weather are expected.

Southerly flow increases Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Warmer temperatures will make a return to
the region with highs approaching the mid 80s for many locations.

This will also lead to building instability during the day. Any
morning showers could turn into thunderstorms for the afternoon.

Models do vary on the amount of instability that develops with the
high res euro showing much less than the gfs. Either way... The
combination of synoptic lift... Instability and a surface cold front
approaching will feature a risk for storms in the forecast until the
cold front pushes through.

A positively tilted mid to upper level ridge is shown to move in for
the beginning of the weekend. Will go with dry weather and close to
seasonable temperatures.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 202 am edt Sun jul 23 2017
high confidence for widespread ifr and occasional lifr conditions
through 12z, although onset may be slightly delayed farther east
at lan terminal. We are much less certain after 12z, but the
general expectation is for a rise toVFR visibilities MVFR
ceilings with the possibility for thunderstorms moving southeast
into the area before 18z. After 18z,VFR should predominate with
scattered thunderstorms in the vicinity. Gusty winds with storms
will be more likely farther east around jxn and lan terminals.

Marine
Issued at 328 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017
winds and waves will remain relatively light through the weekend.

There could be areas of fog tonight and a low chance of
thunderstorms late tonight and through Sunday afternoon.

Hydrology
Issued at 1123 am edt Sat jul 22 2017
we again escaped the heavy to excessive rain that fell in
southern wisconsin and northern illinois. While that area floods,
most of our area continues to run drier than normal these past 1
to 2 weeks. With high atmospheric water vapor content, the showers
Saturday morning efficiently put down over a half inch of rain but
only in a few isolated spots. Scattered showers or storms Sunday
will provide only spotty relief to the dry weather. After that, the
next potential for a storm will be Wednesday.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Ostuno
short term... Ostuno
long term... Mjs
aviation... Tjt
hydrology... Cas
marine... Ostuno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 20 mi45 min NW 7 G 13 68°F 65°F
45024 22 mi27 min WNW 3.9 G 9.7 66°F 70°F1 ft1011.1 hPa66°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 27 mi57 min W 13 G 27 68°F 1011.2 hPa (+1.4)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 32 mi37 min S 1.9 G 1.9 67°F 1008.3 hPa67°F
45161 34 mi37 min SSE 1.9 G 3.9 67°F 69°F1008.9 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 42 mi77 min Calm G 1.9 68°F 1009.8 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI22 mi62 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist62°F62°F100%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S5E6E7E4E6E4NE3E5E4E3NE3CalmW5NW8NW7N7N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW9
1 day agoSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W4W5SW8SW8W8
G14
SW4E4CalmSE5CalmE5E3SW4Calm
2 days agoW6SW4SW6SW6SW7W6W8W6W7NW7W7SW4NW3SW7SW6SW8SW5SW4W4CalmSW5SW4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.