Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hart, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 9:13PM Saturday May 25, 2019 7:16 AM EDT (11:16 UTC) Moonrise 1:14AMMoonset 11:13AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 405 Am Edt Sat May 25 2019
Early this morning..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering west 5 to 10 knots late at night, then veering north toward daybreak. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots backing north 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots veering east toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Memorial day..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ848 Expires:201905252000;;424272 FZUS53 KGRR 250805 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 AM EDT Sat May 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ848-252000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hart, MI
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location: 43.66, -86.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 250930
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
530 am edt Sat may 25 2019
latest update...

update

Synopsis
Issued at 302 am edt Sat may 25 2019
- showers storms diminish this afternoon.

- showers south of i-94 Sunday.

- more storms Monday afternoon through Wednesday.

Update
Issued at 530 am edt Sat may 25 2019
currently the convection is riding northward on the mid-level
thermal gradient (warm front aloft). I expect this to continue but
the convection will weaken slowly as it does so the next few
hours. That is because the 1000 850 mb moisture transport maximum
has already occurred and now we will have weakening of the
moisture transport. Also there is a thermal ridge axis just coming
on shore now from ldm to beh. This starts the process of bringing
colder air from near the surface to 500 mb. By 8 am the deep
thermal ridge axis will be near i-75. So that should significantly
reduce forcing for convection. However the colder air at mid-
levels may be enough to cause some weaker showers to develop by
mid morning and march east with the colder air. There is still
enough instability over the area (1000>1500 j kg mu cape) during
the mid to late morning so some storms could develop. The
equilibrium level for those cells is limited to near 25,000 ft
and the CAPE is skinny so I do not see strong storms. Still I do
believe more showers should be expected into early afternoon as
the cooler air moves in. Note that highs will be much warmer than
Friday even with this "cooler" air since the cooler is relative to
what the mid level temperatures were during the early morning
hours.

The bottom line is the stronger storms are done for today but do
expect some scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly east of
us-131 into the early afternoon.

Discussion (today through next Friday)
issued at 302 am edt Sat may 25 2019
ongoing convection is unfolding pretty much as expected. There was a
dramatic flareup of convection during the evening in response to a
surge in moisture transport into the area. Convection has been
elevated as we've been north of the warm front. However, that front
is beginning its move into far southern lower. Another developing
band of convection over wisconsin has also flared up during the past
couple of hours and should move across the lake prior to sunrise.

Latest hrrr seems to have a handle on this (although previous runs
didn't). Given elongated moisture transport vectors through mid
morning, i'd expect showers storms to continue through 9am or so
before beginning to diminish. Much of the precipitation will fall
along north of i-96. Copious amounts of rain will fall from these
storms so ponding of roadways are a good bet.

The trailing cold front will push the showers storms south tonight
but get hung up over northern indiana where a weak wave will ride
along it Sunday and provide the far southern CWA with a few showers.

Another system ejects out of the plains Monday and pushes the
frontal boundary north. We'll repeat this cycle of showers storms
near near the boundary. Moisture transport vectors lengthen
considerably after 18z Monday indicating and increased threat of
heavy rain again. Given the saturated ground, localized flooding is
possible. Overall, the severe threat looks low.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 146 am edt Sat may 25 2019
radar shows one round of thunderstorms moving across lower michigan.

Most CIGS areVFR except from mkg northward along the lake shore.

More showers storms are developing over il wi and will eventually
move northeast across the state. Expect mostlyVFR conditions with
sfc winds shifting to the southwest behind a warm front as it moves
north. A few pockets of MVFR are possible, especially at mkg. A few
more storms near the northern TAF sites are expected through 12z
too.

Marine
Issued at 302 am edt Sat may 25 2019
outside of thunderstorms, wind and waves will remain under small
craft advisory criteria through Tuesday.

Hydrology
Issued at 205 pm edt Fri may 24 2019
the "rinse and repeat" weather pattern continues for lower michigan.

Area-wide average rainfall around an inch is expected tonight, with
some localized areas possible pushing 2 inches by tomorrow
(Saturday) afternoon. After lingering showers through much of the
weekend, another more concentrated round of rain may move into the
area in the Monday night timeframe.

The good news is that these storms are spaced out enough that the
rivers should be able to handle the water without much problem.

However, we will be seeing rising water levels on virtually all
streams as we go through the holiday weekend. If individual storms
track over the same areas, it's always possible that ponding of
water on roadways and at low spots could occur, along with brief
overflow of the small streams in the area.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Wdm
synopsis... 04
discussion... 04
aviation... 04
hydrology... Amd
marine... 04


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 20 mi34 min SSE 2.9 G 7 66°F 62°F
45024 22 mi26 min S 3.9 G 5.8 48°F 44°F1 ft1011.3 hPa48°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 27 mi36 min SSW 6 G 8.9 53°F 1010.5 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 32 mi26 min SSE 5.1 G 7 57°F 1010.2 hPa57°F
45161 34 mi36 min E 3.9 G 5.8 51°F 1010.3 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI22 mi21 minN 07.00 miOvercast64°F62°F97%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3E6E9CalmCalmS4SW4SE8SE7S8SE8SE7SE6SE8SE9SE10SE7SE6
G14
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1 day agoW4W4W12
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W8W5W8W6W5NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3Calm
2 days agoE17SE14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.