Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hart, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 5:22PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 7:00 PM EST (00:00 UTC) Moonrise 1:28PMMoonset 11:25PM Illumination 44% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 326 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 20 knots veering southwest 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 6 feet after midnight.
Friday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers until midday. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
LMZ848 Expires:201811150445;;305649 FZUS53 KGRR 142026 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 326 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ848-150445-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hart, MI
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location: 43.66, -86.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 142023
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
323 pm est Wed nov 14 2018
latest update...

synopsis discussion marine

Synopsis
Issued at 323 pm est Wed nov 14 2018
clouds will be on the increase on Thursday as low pressure barrels
up the appalachians with light snow reaching the southern half of
lower michigan during the late afternoon and evening. A total of 1
to 2 inches of snow is possible from grand rapids to lansing and
south to jackson.

Discussion (this evening through next Wednesday)
issued at 323 pm est Wed nov 14 2018
primary forecast issue will be for p-type and amounts on Thursday
afternoon and evening. This will be another case similar to Monday
evening where impacts to travel could be made worse if skin
temperatures fall below freezing, which could happen after dusk on
Thursday.

Most of the model soundings show that this event should start as
snow or change over to snow quickly as the the lower levels
saturate and wet bulb temperatures are below freezing through the
depth of the column. We are looking at about a 6 hour period
roughly from 3 pm to 9 pm where an area of mid-level f-gen would
be favorable for the formation of mesoscale banding across the
southern half of the forecast area.

Skin temperatures will be above freezing at the onset but should
go below freezing around 6 pm to 7 pm with the potential for some
icing on roads after that. Still too early to get a more specific
handle on this, along with confidence on travel impacts. We will
hold off on an advisory for now given the marginal nature of the
event.

After the f-gen banding winds down Thursday evening, a northern
stream shortwave trough axis comes through Friday morning with
some light snow or snow showers across the northern zones. This
shouldn't amount to much. A sfc front generates enough convergence
to bring another round of light snow Saturday morning. Fair and
cold after that, until a clipper brings the chance of more light
snow early next week.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1245 pm est Wed nov 14 2018
vfr conditions to continue through tonight then ceilings will
lower on Thursday afternoon with MVFR conditions by late
afternoon across southern lower michigan. Wind will be north today
and east on Thursday.

Marine
Issued at 323 pm est Wed nov 14 2018
a small craft advisory will probably be needed on Thursday night
and Friday as winds and waves increase.

Hydrology
Issued at 1022 am est Tue nov 13 2018
river levels are mostly above normal for this time of year, though
they are below bank full and steady or falling. The precipitation
over the next week will be limited in amount and frozen, so rivers
will continue to fall. Despite the cold weather, freeze-up ice jams
are not a concern, as water temperatures in the main-stem rivers are
still well above freezing.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Ostuno
discussion... Ostuno
aviation... Ostuno
hydrology... 63
marine... Ostuno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 20 mi30 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 29°F 20°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 27 mi20 min S 6 G 8.9 29°F 1031.8 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 32 mi30 min SE 4.1 G 4.1 30°F 1034.2 hPa20°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI22 mi65 minN 010.00 miFair27°F20°F75%1032.2 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5W6NW8NW8
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W7NW3NW5NW6NW4NW4W5CalmCalmCalmNW4N5N6E3E3W5SW5CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmNW3NW3N4N4CalmN5N6
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2 days agoW5W5SW7W7NW3NW6NW4W6NW4NW5NW5NW6NW5N5NW7NW6N6NW10NW8NW3NW5CalmNW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.