Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hart, MI

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Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 8:42PM Sunday August 19, 2018 10:04 AM EDT (14:04 UTC) Moonrise 3:01PMMoonset 12:09AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 929 Am Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
Rest of today..Southeast winds around 5 knots veering west late in the day. Sunny. Waves less than 1 foot.
Tonight..Northeast winds around 5 knots veering southeast 5 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ848 Expires:201808192115;;896245 FZUS53 KGRR 191329 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 929 AM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ848-192115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hart, MI
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location: 43.66, -86.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 191145
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
745 am edt Sun aug 19 2018
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 329 am edt Sun aug 19 2018
after the morning fog burns off today the departing surface high
will provide a partly sunny day, warm and humid day with highs in
the mid 80s inland of lake michigan. Expect some late afternoon
showers and thunderstorms near us-131 due to lake breeze
convergence pushing inland. Tonight will be mostly clear with
lows in the 60s.

A developing storm in the central plains early Monday will track
toward lower michigan Tuesday morning. This will be an early fall
type storm with a significant amount of strong winds as the
system moves away from the area Tuesday. More significantly
though all of our CWA should get a soaking rain from this systems.

Areas that end up being north of the track of the surface low may
see over 2 inches of rain in about 12 hours. There will be
thunderstorms but we do not expect these to severe.

Once the storm moves out of the area it will be cooler for several
days. This will be the coolest temperatures we have seen near
since late july. Highs will be in the 70s and lows will be in the
50s.

Short term (today through Tuesday)
issued at 329 am edt Sun aug 19 2018
there is very little question we are going to get that storm
Monday night into Tuesday that we have been tracking for over a
week now. The main question for me this morning is how extensive
will the fog by around sunrise? As of now only a few locations
have dense fog and they are not necessary close to each other.

So, for the fog issue, we once again like last night we have 10
to 20 knots in the boundary layer but unlike last night that wind
is expected to weaken around 5 am. So it is possible to see the
patchy dense fog become more extensive at that time. I have noted
that when the rap model and NAM model visibility forecasts both
have dense fog over the same area it nearly always happens. In
this case they are opposite of each other. The NAM as the dense
fog south of i-96 while the rap model has it north of i-96. So,
given the uncertainty, I will just keep the areas of dense fog in
the forecast and for not call that good.

Today we will once again, like yesterday see lake breeze
convergence convection during the late afternoon. The model
sounding are significantly more moist below 700 mb than yesterday
in the area I expect the convection to develop. Meanwhile the air
above 700 mb is much drier. The equilibrium level for these
storms is near the trop, but given all the dry air above 700 mb i
do not believe they will get that tall. Even so, they will be
around and with mbe vectors less than 10 knots, they will not be
going anywhere all to fast. If you get one overhead, you could get
over a half inch of rain in an hour. These should be scattered
through due the mid level dry air so I will have chance pops near
us-131 this afternoon for these storms. SPC has us in general
thunder.

As for our storm, the models have come into better agreement on
this system. It seems to me we get an occluded front to come
through and never really get into the warm air (based on
isentropic surface data). The low level jet is aimed at southwest
michigan Monday evening and it will be bringing nearly 2 inches
of precipitable water into our area as it does so. Curiously the
deep layer shear is 30 to 40 knots Monday afternoon before the
rain begins. However when the precipitation moves in it falls to
near 10 knots. It should also be noted that the system comes
through during the middle of the night. This too decreases the
risk of strong storms. One other negative is the SPC sref
conditional probability of severe storms is only around 5
percent. The higher probabilities are south of michigan (as
unsusual). So, like so many events we have seen so far this
summer, this will be heavy rain event more than a strong
thunderstorm event. I will admit the most unstable CAPE does rise
to over 1000 j kg during the night.

The bottom line is warm and humid today into Monday afternoon,
then showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain Monday
night. That will be followed by a breezy, cooler Tuesday with some
light rain showers.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 329 am edt Sun aug 19 2018
it will become cooler and much less humid on the back side of the
system Tuesday night and Wednesday. Breezy conditions into Tuesday
night will result in marine impacts with wave heights up to 4 to 8
feet into Tuesday night. High pressure will build in for midweek and
bring fair wx with seasonable temps Wednesday and Thursday.

The next low pressure system approaching from the west will bring a
chance for showers Friday and Saturday. It will also become warmer
and more humid due to development of persistent southerly flow warm
air advection.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 744 am edt Sun aug 19 2018
lifr conditions in dense fog prevail at many but not all of our
grr TAF sites at 1130z this morning. Due to the east to southeast
winds the clouds and fog will clear from southeast to northwest
this morning. All TAF sites will beVFR by 15z.

There is the potential for scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms during the mid to late afternoon. I put vcsh to over
this potential.

Skies should clear this evening but I do not expect fog tomorrow
morning.

Marine
Issued at 329 am edt Sun aug 19 2018
we will clearly need marine headlines for Tuesday but it's to soon
to issue those now. We will be approaching gales by Tuesday
afternoon behind this storm. Since the storm is tracking toward
central michigan, that means southeast winds Monday during the
day and northeast winds over northern sections Monday night. So,
more than likely the headlines would be for Tuesday, which is
still beyond our forecast timeframe.

Hydrology
Issued at 141 pm edt Sat aug 18 2018
a widespread light rain fell over a large portion of west
michigan since Friday morning... With most locations seeing less
than one quarter inch of rain. Isolated heavier amounts fell in
the kalamazoo and portage river basins. Area river stages showed
little response to the rainfall Friday... As the dry conditions
prevented significant runoff in most areas.

Areal coverage of precipitation promises to be less today that on
Friday. While heavy rainfall may accompany the stronger
showers thunderstorms... Impacts to area rivers are not expected
over the next 48 hours.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Wdm
short term... Wdm
long term... Laurens
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... Mws
marine... Wdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 20 mi35 min S 4.1 G 5.1 70°F 67°F
45024 22 mi25 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 70°F 75°F1 ft1016.6 hPa67°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 27 mi25 min S 5.1 G 8 72°F 1016.9 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 32 mi25 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 68°F 1015.7 hPa68°F
45161 34 mi45 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 71°F 75°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI22 mi70 minS 33.00 miFog/Mist67°F66°F97%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NE3CalmNW8NW10
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NW9N8N6N9N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3NW5N6N6N7N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3
2 days agoCalmW4SW7W6W5NW6NW5N7NW6N6CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.