Sunrise 6:53 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 3:30 PM   Moonset 4:25 AM

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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 405 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon - .
Through early evening - West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Tonight - West winds to 30 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet.Saturday - West winds to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the day. Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet late in the day. Saturday night - West winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet toward daybreak. Sunday - West winds 20 to 25 knots backing southwest 15 to 20 knots late in the day. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Sunday night - Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots backing south toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet.Monday - South winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.Tuesday - Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots veering west late in the day. Rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Wednesday - North winds 20 to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 192340 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 740 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold stretch; low temps near to below freezing

- Increased fire weather and freeze potential next week

- Chance of showers or storms Tuesday

DISCUSSION
Issued at 336 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

- Cold stretch; low temps near to below freezing

Upper troughing/deep cyclonic flow will maintain chilly conditions over the weekend, with H8 temps bottoming out around -8C Saturday morning. The incoming air mass is quite dry with dew points falling into the lower 20s and the main concern is the risk of freezing temps with blooming vegetation now more vulnerable.

As of today we will begin frost and freeze headlines as necessary for all but the northern row of counties in the GRR CWFA. See the latest Public Information Statement (PNSGRR) for more info.

For tonight the risk of a frost/freeze is marginal since the winds stay up around 10 mph for most of the night plus we may see some clouds floating in related to a shortwave pivoting in from the northwest. Given expected low temps mostly 33-35 (inland from Lk) and any dips to 30-32 more localized/brief, will not issue a freeze warning tonight. This was coordinated with the DTX office.

After highs only in the mid 40s on Saturday, a better chance for a freeze exists on Saturday night when winds should be a bit lighter and guidance temps are a few degrees colder.

- Increased fire weather and freeze potential next week

Fuels (dead or drying live vegetation) will become more prone to spreading fires as dry and breezy daytime conditions continue into Sunday and Monday. Sunday may be on the cusp of Red Flag Warning conditions in mid-Michigan.

On the nighttime side, Sunday night will be another to be on guard for sub-32 degree temperatures. Just before milder air returns for Monday and Tuesday, the ridge of surface high pressure will be over Michigan Sunday night, which should allow winds to go light or calm under clear skies. This may be a freeze setup that is easier to mitigate given the calm winds and a sharp temperature inversion forming in the lowest 100 feet above ground (cold air settling at ground level with warmer temperatures above).

Wednesday night also has the potential to bring an impactful freeze with high pressure moving over post-cold-front. The magnitude of the cold air is still questionable among the model ensembles, as it depends on whether the core of coldest air from the Hudson Bay region spills into Michigan or is routed farther to our northeast.

- Chance of showers or storms Tuesday

An upper-level low in the lee of the Canadian Rockies on Monday opens up into a trough as it progresses east-southeast toward Michigan on Tuesday. Showers are likely to develop in the vicinity of a surface cold front. The amount of instability available for thunderstorms is not settled among the ensembles, but enough for a mention of a chance of a thunderstorm.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 741 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Some TAF sites have slackened, which is expected. The strong cold air advection will be coincide with renewed strong northwesterly flow, around 02Z, which will keep winds at most TAF sites with gusts of 20 to 30 mph overnight. JXN should be the sole exception.
Winds there will drop to near calm but should increase after 12Z.
VFR will dominate the pattern with perhaps some 4 to 5KFT clouds early Saturday morning. Winds will remain gusty through Saturday.



MARINE
Issued at 336 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Brisk westerly flow of 15-25 kts and waves 3-6 ft will persist tonight and Saturday so the Small Craft Advisory has been extended through the end of the day Saturday. Conditions should fall a bit below criteria Saturday night but may come up again to advisory levels on Sunday. Hazardous winds and waves also look possible Monday through Wednesday as the next weather system impacts the area.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ844>849.

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