Monday, December18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winchester Bay, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 4:44PM Monday December 18, 2017 1:06 AM PST (09:06 UTC) Moonrise 7:53AMMoonset 5:28PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 831 Pm Pst Sun Dec 17 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Offshore high pressure and a trough near the coast will both weaken tonight into Monday. A strong cold front will move through the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Winds will become southerly Monday evening ahead of it, and will increase to advisory and gale force as the front moves through. High and steep swell will follow Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Winds will turn north Wednesday and persist into the weekend...but will likely remain below advisory levels until the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winchester Bay, OR
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location: 43.68, -124.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 180328
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
728 pm pst Sun dec 17 2017

Discussion Another night with areas of fog and near normal low
temperatures is expected. The upper ridge in place is shunting
weak disturbances up and over our forecast area. The only change
we made to the forecast was to remove fog from some california
areas, after looking at current observations and trends over the
past week or so. On the whole though, humidity has trended higher
compared to 24 hours ago, and stability is significantly higher in
the low levels compared to yesterday, per the afternoon balloon
sounding in medford. All this points to more fog coverage in west
side valleys than last night.

The main weather impacts this week will occur from late Tuesday
through Wednesday when a strong cold front brings snow to all
mountain passes, and potentially to some west side valley floors.

Wind will also accompany the front, primarily at the coast, in the
mountains and east of the cascades. Travel will become difficult
over mountain passes due to snowy roads and lower visibility. Those
with travel plans should take this into account. We maintain a
winter storm watch (wswmfr) and special weather statement (spsmfr)
to highlight these weather impacts.

Please see the previous discussion below which provides some more
detail on the upcoming wintry conditions.

Aviation 18 00z TAF cycle... VFR conditions at all locations this
afternoon are again expected to deteriorate across many of the west
side valleys from about medford westward this evening through Monday
morning. However, the situation will be a bit different than the
consistent pattern than we've been seeing, as a weak warm front will
push toward the coos and douglas county coastlines late tonight
through Monday morning. MVFR to ifr low clouds are expected with
this warm front north of CAPE blanco along and near the coast during
that time period. Further inland, from roseburg to medford to grants
pass MVFR to lifr fog and low clouds are expected, but confidence is
only low to moderate in the details because of the influence of high
clouds and temp dewpoints supportive of frost formation. -btl bpn

Marine Updated 300 pm pst Sunday, 17 dec 2017...

high pressure centered offshore and a coastal thermal trough will
continue to support somewhat gusty north winds and choppy seas south
of CAPE ferrelo into this evening. A weak warm front is expected to
turn winds southerly north of CAPE blanco this evening. Winds will
become southerly across all areas Monday evening and then increase
ahead of a strong cold front. The front will sweep through Tuesday
into Tuesday evening with high seas and advisory to gale force winds
likely. High and steep swell will follow Tuesday night into
Wednesday night. A prolonged period of north winds likely, but it
now appears it will take until the weekend for these north winds to
reach advisory levels. Btl

Prev discussion issued 325 pm pst Sun dec 17 2017
short term... Tonight through Wednesday night... Current satellite
observations are showing high clouds across most of the pacific
northwest. Radar and surface observations indicate that we are
still under the influence of high pressure, meaning that the air
stagnation advisory will continue through tomorrow before the next
front comes through on Tuesday.

A few important changes have occurred in this forecast cycle
regarding the arrival of the frontal system Tuesday. The biggest
of those changes are that models are now indicating that this
front will arrive a few hours earlier than previously expected,
and that this will spread the timing of the bulk of the
precipitation. That being said, temperatures on Tuesday will start
out a bit warmer before the front moves through. Then the
temperatures will plummet quickly behind the front. The
precipitation will transition to showers quickly after the front
passes, and all of the mountain passes within the area will see
snow fall. Have issued a winter storm watch (wswmfr) for areas
above 2000 feet where confidence is higher that impactful snow
will occur. Have issued a special weather statement (spsmfr) for
most of the other passes above 1000 feet. See these products for
details, or our weather story on the front page for details and
possible snow amounts.

This system is even poised to bring snow to the valley floor with
less than a half an inch forecast for medford. This is due to a
secondary shortwave that ejects through the area while moisture is
high and snow levels are already below the rogue valley floor.

Confidence is not as high as pass snow, but still high enough to
add to the forecast. Other than impactful low elevation snow,
this storm is typical for this time of year. Beyond that,
temperatures remain cold, especially with snow on the ground and
as high pressure sets up yet again (even if brief). -schaaf
long term... Thursday through Sunday night... Big changes have
cropped up in the models since yesterday. Where most guidance
showed a dominating ridge and offshore flow just 24 hours ago,
some ensemble members from the GFS suggested this ridge would
shift a bit to the west, and swift northerly flow would set up
over the forecast area instead. Today, not only has the
operational GFS and the bulk of its ensemble members trended
towards this solution, but the canadian, the ecmwf, and the bulk
of the ec ensemble members have done so as well.

This slight shift in the ridge results in a significant change to
the forecast. Now a shortwave within the northerly flow is expected
to drop south over our area, producing a chance of light
precipitation Friday into Saturday morning. Cold air already in
place will produce snow levels of roughly 2000 to 3000 feet, so some
light snow is not out of the question for most of the passes and all
but the coast and west side valleys. But behind this wave, a shot of
very cold air will quickly bring temperatures down to some of the
coldest of the season. Snow on the ground and clear skies will only
make it colder, especially on the east side where low temperatures
Saturday morning could easily drop to well below zero. High
temperatures on Saturday may not even make it above freezing for all
but the coast.

Of course, all of this hinges on the location of the ridge. As of
this writing, confidence on the cold forecast solution is good given
the shear bulk of the guidance showing the influx of arctic air. A
late look at some additional ensemble and long term guidance has
reinforced this confidence, and quite frankly, these new colder
forecast temperatures are likely too high for any location that
still has snow on the ground when the cold air arrives. -bpn

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Air stagnation advisory until 8 am pst Tuesday for orz029>031.

Winter storm watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
morning for orz029-030.

Winter storm watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
morning for orz023>026.

Air stagnation advisory until 8 am pst Tuesday for
orz023-024-026.

Ca... Winter storm watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
morning for caz080>083.

Pacific coastal waters... Gale watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Nsk bpn btl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 19 mi44 min 52°F7 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 24 mi91 min SSE 4.1 G 8 52°F1023.1 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR17 mi71 minSE 710.00 miA Few Clouds40°F37°F93%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE7S6S5E3SE4SE6SE6SE4S4CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmSE5SE6SE6SE7SE7SE6SE7SE7
1 day agoSE8SE6SE7SE9SE6SE7SE5SE4SE6SE4SE3CalmN5N6N5NE3CalmSE3SE3SE6SE4SE5SE7SE7
2 days agoSE3SE4SE7SE4SE7CalmSE7SE5SE6SE8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmN3SE5CalmSE4SE5SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:36 AM PST     6.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:42 AM PST     3.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:45 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:52 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:39 AM PST     7.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:41 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:28 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:29 PM PST     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
66.15.64.843.33.23.74.65.76.77.47.56.85.53.820.5-0.3-0.30.51.83.34.7

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:42 AM PST     5.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:03 AM PST     2.67 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:45 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:52 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:45 PM PST     7.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:40 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:28 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:50 PM PST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
55.75.95.54.73.732.733.956.277.26.75.64.12.40.9-0.1-0.30.21.42.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.