Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winchester Bay, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 7:40PM Monday March 27, 2017 5:24 PM PDT (00:24 UTC) Moonrise 6:09AMMoonset 6:25PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 249 Pm Pdt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon a waters..High pressure will build into the waters tonight while long period swell dominated seas reach a peak. Seas will remain high through Wednesday night... Largely due to a front that will bring advisory strength southerly winds Tuesday night through Wednesday morning north of cape blanco beyond 8 nm from shore. Winds will veer to north Wednesday night then may reach advisory strength on Thursday in the outer waters south of gold beach.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winchester Bay, OR
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location: 43.68, -124.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 272100
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
200 pm pdt Mon mar 27 2017

Discussion 27/12z nam/gfs/ec in.

The northern hemispheric projection shows a wave number of four
around the globe and occasionally hints at a five over the next
several days. This argues for a moderately progressive pattern.

That is indeed what we will get over the next several days.

Overall the pattern looks quite spring like... With weaker storms
driven by low amplitude upper level troughs. The primary storm
track will remain to the north of the area... But there will be
some action down here.

A long wave trough has moved out to the east and a long wave ridge
is now building into the west coast. Shower activity is
diminishing and the heaviest activity is occurring from the
cascades east.

The ridge will bring dry and warmer weather to the area Monday
night into Tuesday. The ridge axis will break to the east of the
area Tuesday night and a strong short wave riding up the back side
of the ridge will move onshore to the north of the area
Wednesday. A warm front will move onshore Tuesday night... Followed
by a trailing cold front Wednesday afternoon. With most of the
upper level support remaining to the north... Both fronts will be
relatively weak this far south. Even so... Most if not all of the
medford CWA will get some light precipitation Tuesday night into
Wednesday night. A stronger short wave with a more southerly
trajectory will move onshore late Wednesday night or early
Thursday morning with the long wave trough. This along with short
waves diving down the back side of the trough will support post-
frontal showers lasting into Thursday evening... But shower
intensity and coverage will diminish through the day Thursday.

After that... Another long wave ridge will build into the west
coast and this will bring another round of dry and warmer weather
beginning Friday.

Long term... Friday through Monday.

After a chilly morning, high pressure ridge is likely to bring a
warming and drying trend Friday into Saturday with the storm track
pushed northward into canada. Model uncertainly continues to be high
for next weekend with the ECMWF being quicker to push the ridge east
and allow a trough to move into wa and northern oregon. We have
introduced a slight chance of rain for coos and NW douglas county
for Saturday but confidence is not very high as the GFS continues to
maintain the ridge over our forecast area. Ensemble forecast high
temperature for SW oregon points to a warm day so we are leaning
toward no mention of precipitation for the rogue valley. Confidence
is only slightly higher for precipitation Saturday night into Sunday
as the driest solution (ec) shows westerly flow instead of a ridge,
with a deep trough per the gfs. The GFS solution bears watching as
it develops a closed low near the tahoe area. This would bring more
mountain snow to the warners early next week. /fb

Aviation 27/18z TAF cycle... Showers are decreasing across the
forecast area to mainly isolated coverage, and the trend for
decreasing coverage into the afternoon.VFR CIGS are expected to be
the predominate condition today. Could not rule out temporary MVFR
or even isolated ifr CIGS in snow showers with partial mountain
obscurations. Freezing levels are expected to rise to around 5000
feet msl this afternoon. Confidence is higher forVFR conditions
this afternoon through this evening as the atmosphere becomes more
stable. For now keptVFR CIGS in tonight, but later shifts may need
to evaluate the potential for low clouds and patchy fog for west
side valleys if there's enough clearing. /fb

Marine Updated 200 pm pdt Monday 27 march 2017... With high
pressure building into the waters, winds have diminished but seas
will be at a peak this evening. Seas will be very steep in the outer
waters and steep in the inner waters. Seas are dominated by a west
swell at 12 seconds and another west swell at 18 seconds. Seas
diminish very slightly on Tuesday and remain high through Wednesday
night. An occluding front will then bring increasing southerly winds
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with speeds reaching advisory
strength north of CAPE blanco beyond 8 nm from shore. Winds will veer
to north Wednesday night then may reach advisory strength in the
outer waters south of gold beach Thursday afternoon into Saturday.

Uncertainty in the forecast increases rapidly on Saturday and is high
into early next week. /dw

Mfr watches/warnings/advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas
until 5 am pdt Thursday for pzz350-356-370-376.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm Tuesday to 1 pm pdt Wednesday
for pzz350-370.

Hazardous seas warning until 11 pm pdt this evening for
pzz370-376.

15/08/16


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 20 mi38 min 51°F14 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 24 mi54 min W 7 G 9.9 52°F1028.1 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Bend, North Bend Municipal Airport, OR17 mi29 minWSW 910.00 miA Few Clouds52°F41°F67%1028.4 hPa

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8W8SW4S4SW7SW6SW7S7S6S6SW7
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Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:31 AM PDT     6.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:26 AM PDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:08 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:36 PM PDT     7.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:45 PM PDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:25 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:38 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:59 PM PDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.86.864.631.70.90.91.83.24.76.177.16.34.83.11.40.30.10.82.23.95.5

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:37 AM PDT     6.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:08 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:47 AM PDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:42 PM PDT     6.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:25 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:37 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:59 PM PDT     New Moon
Mon -- 08:06 PM PDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.66.56.65.94.73.21.80.90.71.32.64.25.76.76.96.253.31.80.60.10.51.73.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.