Friday, May25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winchester Bay, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:46PM Friday May 25, 2018 11:52 AM PDT (18:52 UTC) Moonrise 3:50PMMoonset 3:02AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 900 Am Pdt Fri May 25 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Moderate north winds will continue to produce steep seas today. Winds will decrease tonight, but gusty north winds will return by tomorrow afternoon south of cape blanco. Winds will spread north and strengthen further Sunday evening into early next week. Small craft advisory conditions will continue through much of next week most areas with north gales possible early to middle next week south of cape blanco.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winchester Bay, OR
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location: 43.68, -124.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 251755
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
1055 am pdt Fri may 25 2018

Aviation 25 18z... Areas of rain with embedded heavy showers
will continue through this afternoon from just west of the
cascade crest (including kmfr) eastward across the east side
(including klmt). Very heavy downpours and occasional lightning
will be possible within this corridor, with the heaviest rain and
greatest threat for thunderstorms being on the east side. In
general, MVFR ceilings andVFR visibility are expected, but
conditions could occasionally lower to ifr, especially across the
east side. Watch for gusty downdraft winds near any thunderstorms.

At krbg and koth, occasional showers will end from west to east
today MVFR or better conditions. -wright

Prev discussion issued 938 am pdt Fri may 25 2018
discussion... Some updates were made and sent earlier to expand
the coverage of thunderstorms. Some strikes occurred around tiller
and updated the forecast to reflect this. Rainfall amounts
overnight have been impressive for this time of year. Observations
east of the cascades showed amounts between 0.50" and up to 0.80"
with up to 0.50" west of the cascades. Given that this morning's
sounding at kmfr showed record values of precipitatable water
(1.21"), it's not surprising to have these rainfall values.

The cut-off low responsible for yesterday's and last night's
activity will gradually move into california this afternoon. The
position of the low puts our forecast area in a favorable area for
widespread showers and thunderstorms today. A deformation zone
will continue to rotate over the area and this will enhance
shower and thunderstorm activity. Widespread cloud cover west of
the cascades will keep instability minimized today. So the
favored area for thunderstorms will be in northern california and
east of the cascades where breaks in the cloud cover will enhance
instability.

East of the cascades, with the copoius amounts of rain that has
already fallen and more heavy rain expected today, have decided to
issue an areal flood advisory for areas east of the cascade
foothills through this evening. Ponding of water on roadways is
likely, and running water is possible is low lying areas. For more
details, see pdxflsmfr.

After today, the low continues east, as does the instability, so
conditions will dry out and warm up for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. For more details on this, see the previous
discussion below. Br-y
marine... Updated 840 am pdt Friday 25 may 2018... Update: this
morning's guidance all shows winds associated with the thermal
trough rising to near gales Monday, and then they are more likely
reach gales Tuesday and Wednesday. We plan to issue a gale watch
for the Monday-Wednesday period later today. -wright
previous discussion: moderate north winds will continue to produce
steep seas through Friday. Winds will decrease Friday night as
inland low pressure disrupts the north flow, but the thermal trough
will rebuild over california by Saturday afternoon, marking a return
of gusty north winds south of CAPE blanco. Winds will spread north
and strengthen further Sunday evening into early next week. The
thermal trough is likely to remain in place for several days,
producing at least small craft advisory conditions until the next
system arrives late in the week or next weekend, providing a brief
disruption to the pattern. -bpn
prev discussion... Issued 230 am pdt Fri may 25 2018
discussion... 25 00z nam GFS ec in.

Showers persist this morning with a few thunderstorms east of the
cascades. The 25 00z kmfr sounding had a precipitable water value
of 1.05 inches. Pretty wet for any time of year.

A cutoff low off the california coast is inducing south to
southeast flow over the area with the medford CWA under the
deformation zone aloft. This combined with short waves rotating
around the low is supporting the current convection.

The low will move slowly east, moving onshore around noon Friday
and into nevada Saturday. As it does so, the most favored area for
convection will also move east. Expect plenty of showers Friday
over the inland areas, but thunderstorm activity will be east of
the cascades and possibly over siskiyou county, which will be
closer to the low. Model lifted indices support this scenario.

Friday highs inland will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than the
Thursday highs under mostly cloudy skies.

By Saturday, the low will be far enough east for the flow aloft to
shift to northerly as a ridge builds in from the west. This will
bring the precipitation to an end west of the cascades. Models
still show significant activity east of the cascades, but lifted
indices indicate that these will be showers, not thunderstorms.

Those showers will dissipate by Saturday night.

Saturday highs will be warmer... Near normal west of the cascades
and 5 to 10 degrees below normal to the east.

Low level easterly flow will develop Saturday night and this will
clear out the west side Saturday night into Sunday night. Inland high
temperatures will warm back up to around 5 degrees above normal. It
will be quite warm at brookings with highs in the middle 70s. West
side highs will be 5-10 degrees above normal and the east side
will be up to 5 degrees above normal.

The ridge will hold through Monday for continued warm and dry
weather. It will be the warmest day of the stretch for all but the
coast and far east side with highs around 10 degrees above normal.

Long term discussion from the Thursday afternoon afd... Tuesday 29
may through Thursday 31 may 2018. Models are in pretty good
agreement with only minor differences through mid week.

Tuesday will be a transition day as an upper level trough
approaches the pacific northwest. Temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler, and we'll see the return of thunderstorm chances
east of the cascades. Conditions will be similar on Wednesday, but
with slightly cooler temperatures.

By Thursday, models diverge on how they handle a secondary shortwave
that swings down the backside of the trough. The GFS drops the
energy further south into northern california and shears it off
briefly into a closed low that lingers over the area through
Thursday. The ec on the other hand, moves the shortwave through the
area by Thursday afternoon. About half of the GFS ensembles agree
with the operational while the other half are similar to the ec
solution. Because of this, went with a general blend for Thursday
and introduced a slight chance for thunderstorms over southwest
siskiyou county. If the GFS pans out, convection would be a bit more
in coverage over northern california, whereas the ec would keep the
area dry for most of the day Thursday. Either solution will bring
seasonable temperatures. Br-y

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory from 5 am Saturday to 11 am pdt Sunday for
pzz356-376.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 5 am pdt Saturday
for pzz350-356-370-376.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 19 mi90 min 53°F7 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 24 mi83 min N 6 G 8 51°F1019 hPa
46128 32 mi113 min N 14 53°F1019.7 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR17 mi57 minN 1210.00 miOvercast55°F48°F77%1019.2 hPa

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW7NW6NW8NW6NW8NW7NW7NW5W4W3SW3CalmCalmCalmSE5E3N3W3NE3CalmNE3N4NE7NW9
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N10N9N9N7N7N4N4N4N3S3SE3CalmSW5W5NW6NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:01 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:08 AM PDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:42 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:13 AM PDT     5.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:57 PM PDT     1.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:50 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:45 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:27 PM PDT     6.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.13.72.31.20.811.72.844.95.35.14.43.42.31.41.11.52.43.756.26.96.8

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:01 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:29 AM PDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:41 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:19 AM PDT     5.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:49 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:18 PM PDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:45 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:33 PM PDT     6.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.15.13.82.41.30.70.71.42.43.64.65.154.43.52.41.511.11.93.14.65.86.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.