Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Reedsport, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 9:03PM Monday June 26, 2017 12:05 PM PDT (19:05 UTC) Moonrise 7:43AMMoonset 10:17PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 824 Am Pdt Mon Jun 26 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..South to southwest winds and light seas will persist over the waters today into tonight. A disturbance moving up from the south may bring some isolated Thunderstorms or showers to areas near the coast this morning. A thermal trough develops along the coast Tuesday and strengthens on Wednesday. This is expected to bring gusty north winds and steep to very steep choppy seas to the waters. Highest winds and steepest seas are expected from cape blanco southward. These conditions will persist through late in the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reedsport, OR
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location: 43.71, -124.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 261708
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
1007 am pdt Mon jun 26 2017

Updated aviation discussion
Discussion A challenging thunderstorm forecast for this
afternoon and evening. An upper trough axis approaching crescent
city will be located over southwest oregon this afternoon and lake
county by late evening. This approaching trough will cool
temperatures aloft and increase the instability over the region.

This morning's sounding at medford showed atmospheric moisture
close to the 90th percentile for this time of year so there is
sufficient moisture in the atmosphere to create and sustain
thunderstorms today. However, the greatest lift and moisture will
be ahead of this trough across northeast oregon late today and
this evening. The NAM 700 mb equivalent potential temperature
(theta e) which takes into account increased temperature and
dewpoint shows a maximum axis from central siskiyou county to
klamath and northern lake counties by 5 pm today, although the
greatest values late today are across northeast oregon.

The bottom line is... There will be less thunderstorm activity
today compared with yesterday but still a significant thunderstorm
event for our area. The populated westside inland valleys may
only see isolated thunderstorms this afternoon while more
organized (scattered) thunderstorms could develop across the
cascades, klamath, and northern lake counties late this afternoon
into the evening. A few severe storms are also possible with large
hail and strong winds.

Sandler

Prev discussion issued 328 am pdt Mon jun 26 2017
discussion...

latest observations at this hour show some weak and isolated
convection over the coast and north western portions of douglas
county. Behind this convection, relatively drier air is starting
to push into southern oregon and northern california. The
probability for additional thunderstorms this morning is quite
low with the elevated drier air moving in.

As for later today, no major changes to the forecast except for
removing the chance for thunderstorms in southern modoc county.

Otherwise, we have high confidence that we will see convection
east of the cascades today. The reason for this confidence is the
broad upper level destabilization as the low moves through in
addition to being positioned under the left exit region of the
upper level jet. These features should break down convective
inhibition during the day and allow surface heating to kick off
storms. Also, the cloud cover from the convection last night is on
the way out. The models handled this cloud cover quite well
giving us even more confidence in the probability of convection.

The only uncertainty that remains is the exact location of the
storms. It appears they will start out in the northern portions of
lake and klamath counties before the storms dive a bit farther
south Monday evening. However, conceptual thinking should also
allow for some storms over josephine and jackson counties. Dew
points are also sitting in the upper 50's, which does suggest
there will be some potential instability over us tomorrow.

Regarding severity, the storm prediction center has us in a
marginal risk, which seems fairly appropriate given the forecast
for 0-6km shear and moisture near the surface. Wouldn't be
surprised if one or two storms become severe tomorrow evening over
our entire cwa. At this time, it seems more probable over the east
side.

As for Tuesday evening, we have a slight chance for some
thunderstorms in southern siskiyou county. Confidence is low for
this event as there appears to be a little upper level energy
pushing through. This appears to be enough for some of the models
to initialize convection.

Aside from thunderstorms, flow will turn generally zonal with
some northwest flow during the later part of the week. As a
result, look for partly cloudy skies with highs in the 80's.

-smith
aviation... 26 06z TAF cycle... Along the coast, expect MVFR ifr
ceilings to continue through the next 24 hours.VFR conditions
will continue everywhere inland from the coast through the taf
period. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over inland areas
tonight, then scattered thunderstorms are expected tomorrow
afternoon along and east of the cascades. Gusty winds are also
expected during the afternoon across much of the east side. -bpn
marine... Updated 300 am Monday, 26 june 2017... South to
southwest winds and light seas will persist over the waters today
into tonight... Becoming north late tonight. A disturbance moving up
from the south is bringing isolated thunderstorms and showers to
areas near the coast this morning. A thermal trough develops along
the coast Tuesday and strengthens on Wednesday. This is expected to
bring gusty north winds and steep to very steep choppy seas to the
waters. The strongest winds and seas are forecast from CAPE blanco
south but periods of small craft winds and seas are possible north
of the cape. These conditions may persist through late in the week.

-cc
fire weather... Updated 1000 am Tuesday, 26 june 2017... Isolated
thunderstorms are possible this morning as an upper trough
approaches, then storms will increase in coverage and intensity in
the afternoon and evening as the main trough arrives. The focus for
lightning is expected to be from the siskiyous and western slopes of
the cascades eastward. However isolated to scattered storms are
possible over western valleys in jackson and eastern josephine
county as well into western and central siskiyou county this
afternoon and early this evening. It will be cooler today compared
to yesterday, but breezy west winds and continued low humidities may
fan any new fire starts. Gusty west winds with gusts of 20 to 25 mph
are expected to develop east of the cascades this afternoon and
evening. A red flag warning has been issued for much of modoc county
due to expected wind gusts of 30 mph and humidity 15 percent or
less. Also of concern is the potential for erratic and gusty winds
near storms today. Gusts of 40 to 50 kt are possible near
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, especially for storms that
develop east of the cascades.

Red flag warnings remain in effect for the potential of increased
initial attack activity. The rest of the week should be quieter as
cooler weather dominates. -cc sk

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Red flag warning until 11 pm pdt this evening for orz621-
623. Red flag warning until 11 pm pdt this evening for orz624.

Red flag warning until 8 pm pdt this evening for orz620-622. Red
flag warning until 11 pm pdt this evening for orz625.

Ca... Red flag warning until 8 pm pdt this evening for caz281.

Red flag warning until 8 pm pdt this evening for caz280.

Red flag warning from 1 pm this afternoon to 7 pm pdt this
evening for caz285.

Pacific coastal waters... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46261 7 mi95 min 57°F5 ft
46260 13 mi95 min 55°F5 ft
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 24 mi41 min 55°F6 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 28 mi89 min W 5.1 G 8.9 57°F1017.2 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR21 mi70 minW 710.00 miOvercast61°F55°F83%1017.9 hPa

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Last 24hrW11W11W10W13W10W11W11SW6SW4W6SW3S3SW4W4W5S4SW3SW3CalmSW4SW3SW4W9W8
1 day agoW8W7W10W8W9W9W12W8W4W5S4S5S3S3CalmW3W3CalmCalmS4CalmNW3NW7W12
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Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
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Mon -- 03:02 AM PDT     7.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:36 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:43 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:03 AM PDT     -1.82 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:34 PM PDT     6.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:02 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:10 PM PDT     1.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:16 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.35.97.17.57.15.94.120.1-1.3-1.8-1.4-0.11.73.65.166.15.54.33.12.11.61.9

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:56 AM PDT     7.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:36 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:42 AM PDT     -2.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:44 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:28 PM PDT     6.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:49 PM PDT     1.94 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:02 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:17 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.47.47.87.25.83.71.4-0.6-1.9-2.1-1.30.22.145.56.36.35.54.33.12.222.53.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.