Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Creek, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 4:27PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 4:24 PM EST (21:24 UTC) Moonrise 10:30AMMoonset 8:04PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Creek, NY
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location: 43.71, -74.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 211800
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
100 pm est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
After a mild day, a cold front will approach the region
overnight and bring about a period of wet conditions toward
Wednesday morning. This cold front will be rather quick to pass
through the region limiting its impacts across eastern new york
and western new england through the daylight hours. Brisk and
cooler weather returns during the afternoon hours. Ridge of high
pressure and tranquil weather is expected Wednesday night
through thanksgiving with just some additional clouds expected
Thursday afternoon.

Near term through Wednesday
A beautiful afternoon across eastern new york and western new
england with some higher cirrus clouds occasionally moving
across the november sky. A southerly breeze and warm advection
are allowing for many temperatures to climb into the 50s. This
trend will prevail through the balance of the
afternoon daylight hours.

Surface analysis reveals a cold front currently moving through
the great lakes region. Upstream radar mosaic suggests
precipitation shield was increasing as upper diffluence and
baroclincity was increasing. H2o vapor loop also supports the
digging short wave trough axis, currently positive tilted,
approaching the central great lakes region further enhancing
diffluence. Per NCEP model suite and hi-res near term model
solutions, expectations are for the aforementioned precipitation
shield to increase in coverage overnight and approach our
western portions of the region after midnight as we will adjust
pops wx with a slight delay with the precipitation onset.

Thereafter, shower potential increases and per profiles, a
rain snow mixture is expected as cold advection gets underway
with the frontal passage. At this time, the low pressure area
developing along the northeast gulf of mexico coast is expected
to pass just to our east with limited impacts to our southeast
zones. In addition, the timing of the frontal passage is a bit
faster so the best potential for wet conditions appear to be
Wednesday morning. Where snow does occur, seems accumulations
mainly 1-2 inches to the west of the hudson and across the
higher terrain. Then drier and brisk conditions advect into the
region through the afternoon hours as main upper trough axis
slides quickly across the area through the early afternoon
hours. Some minor lake response is possible but inland
penetration and inversion heights look rather unfavorable to
limit impacts. Temperatures through Wednesday should see highs
early in the day with near to falling temperatures in the
afternoon hours.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
Fair weather for the thanksgiving day holiday.

High pressure builds briefly into the region from the ohio
valley Wednesday night with tranquil weather conditions under
mainly clear skies. Clouds do increase on thanksgiving as a
broad trough and mid level moisture track through the region.

However, seems the lower levels of the troposphere remain dry
enough to withhold the mention of pops wx for the balance of the
daylight hours. Chances for any snow showers are expected to be
limited to portions of the western adirondacks thanksgiving
night with seasonable low temperatures as winds shift to the
southwest with minor lake influences expected.

Another cold front from north-central canada brushes by just to
the north of i90 overnight which will assist with some lake
ontario response but quite minor impacts expected. Then another
warm front approaches for Friday with dry and seasonable
temperatures.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Good model agreement that the progressive pattern continues into the
long term period with the mean hudson bay upper low remaining
dominant. Disturbances pinwheeling around the low have favored a
storm track along or north of the st. Lawrence valley recently, at
it appears that will continue to be the case. Little evidence at
this time that any southern stream energy will phase with the
northern stream.

Friday appears to be a tranquil and seasonable day. Upper heights
will rise in conjunction with shortwave energy tracking across the
northern great lakes region. Attendant surface low looks to track
well north into northern quebec, dragging its front across the
forecast area on Saturday. Midlevel forcing will augment the front
and result in shower potential, but it appears to be a low-qpf
scenario ATTM given lack of moisture source and progressive forcing.

Given the storm track, a p-type of rain is favored over most areas
Saturday, with a tendency to mix with snow with time later Saturday
into Saturday night, mainly at elevation. Additional shortwave
energy is forecast to carve out a deepening upper trough over the
greater northeast Sunday and Monday. H850 temps progged to fall to -
10 to -15c, or possibly a bit lower as shown by the 00z ecmwf, by
Sunday night. These values are 1 to 2 sd below normal. This will
allow for a lake response Sunday into Sunday night, with flow
trajectories veering from NW to nnw. Some synoptic forcing with the
reinforcing wave could carry some showers further inland than the
normal lake effect upslope favored areas Sunday. It appears height
rises build in Monday, allowing lake effect to diminish.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
Mainly clear skies with some passing high level clouds will persist
through this evening and into the overnight hours. Then, clouds will
increase late tonight into early Wednesday morning ahead of a cold
front approaching from the great lakes. CIGS will gradually lower
fromVFR to MVFR during this time, with mainly scattered rain
showers expected to develop ahead of and along the cold front. Will
mention vcsh at all the TAF sites for now.

Low-level wind shear is likely to develop again this evening through
the overnight hours, as surface winds are forecast to decouple and
southwest winds at 2000 ft agl remain around 35 kt. Llws will
dissipate Wednesday morning, as wind speeds aloft weaken.

Surface winds will be south-southwest around 12-17 kt with gusts
around 20-27 kt through this afternoon. Winds tonight will be
southerly, with speeds decreasing to around 5-10 kt. Winds on
Wednesday will shift to the northwest by late morning behind the
cold front.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thanksgiving day: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Shsn.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Shsn.

Fire weather
South to southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to around
30 mph at times this afternoon with minimum relative humidity
values in the 30s.

Fair and mild today ahead of an approaching cold front. The front
will sweep across the region late tonight into Wednesday bringing
some snow and rain showers to the area. A more seasonable air mass
will be ushered back in with mainly fair weather then expected
through Friday.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems are expected this week.

Fair and milder weather into this evening with some rain and
snow showers late tonight into Wednesday as a cold front crosses
the region. QPF amounts are expected to be light with about a
quarter of an inch across the western adirondacks with lesser
amounts elsewhere.

With the passage of the cold front a more seasonable air mass
will be ushered back in with mainly fair weather then expected
through Friday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Bgm
near term... Bgm
short term... Bgm
long term... Thompson
aviation... Jpv
fire weather... Bgm
hydrology... Iaa bgm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Glens Falls, Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport, NY32 mi31 minSSW 610.00 miFair50°F25°F38%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from GFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9
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SW8S6SW7S6S6S5S3CalmCalmS5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS8S10SW8
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1 day agoW12
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W9W73SW9SW9SW9SW12
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2 days agoNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N3CalmNW3CalmS4SW9
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W8W16
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G21

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Tue -- 01:14 AM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:43 AM EST     4.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:22 PM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:04 PM EST     5.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:06 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.6-0.10.21.42.73.64.14.23.72.81.91.40.90.40.51.73.24.45.15.45.14.12.92

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:04 AM EST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:35 AM EST     4.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:12 PM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:56 PM EST     5.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:07 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.3-0.30.21.52.73.5443.42.51.71.20.60.20.51.73.24.355.34.83.82.61.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.