Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gardiner, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:59PM Thursday February 22, 2018 6:34 PM PST (02:34 UTC) Moonrise 10:53AMMoonset 12:17AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 207 Pm Pst Thu Feb 22 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A low is moving southward along the coast, causing increasing north winds over the waters in its wake... Seas will remain steep through this evening and diminish slightly into Friday. High pressure will build over the region Friday resulting in lighter winds and calmer sea conditions that will last into Saturday. A front will move onshore Sunday, and it will bring high and steep northwest swell with it. Even heavier swell will move in Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gardiner, OR
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location: 43.73, -124.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 222259
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
259 pm pst Thu feb 22 2018

Discussion
Short term... Rest of today through Sunday night... What a busy
week it has been, but we're not finished yet with the active
winter pattern. Snow showers continue across the area this
afternoon, with some reports of graupel and rain mixing in here
and there. These will gradually diminish and move off to the south
by this evening, with dry air on the back side of the departing
wave likely to bring us some clearing overnight. This clearing, if
and when it happens, is the first concern on the docket.

Where we see significant clearing tonight, temperatures are
likely to drop quickly to below freezing, and inland from the
coast, much cooler than that. This will be helped by any residual
snow on the ground and the cold air mass in place overhead. Any
snowmelt on road or walking surfaces is likely to freeze, and this
could lead to patches of black ice, a significant concern to
anyone driving or walking on said surfaces. Also, these cold
temperatures will drain down to the coast and valley bottoms,
leading to cold overnight lows that could have a detrimental
impact on local agriculture. At the coast, where freezes are
uncommon, a freeze warning has been issued for tonight. Elsewhere,
since the growing season has yet to begin, there are no
headlines. However, the warmer than average temperatures of the
past month have lead to some early growth, and these plants and
trees could see some damage or stunted development unless the
proper precautions are taken.

The second concern today has been the next system arriving Friday
night into Saturday. While seeming a bit more robust in the model
solutions today, it is also trending a bit warmer. As
the system enters the area Friday night, snow levels will begin
very low, but as precipitation continues into the morning, snow
levels are expected to rise. To above the valley floors of the
west side. The predominant flow of the system will be west to
east, and this will lead to upslope lift for westerly slopes,
especially along the cascades, where the heaviest precipitation is
likely to occur. Have issued a winter weather advisory for the
cascades and the higher elevations and passes of the west side,
and a winter storm warning for eastern douglas county, where the
heaviest snow amounts are expected. For more details on snow
amounts and timing, see the winter weather message at pdxwswmfr.

There is a very slight chance that some localized areas,
especially in the smaller valleys of the coastal ranges, could
see a brief period of freezing rain as precipitation begins or
changes over, but confidence is very low.

Showers will taper off Saturday afternoon and evening, but never
quite come to an end before the next wave arrives on Sunday. Snow
levels will begin this event on the lower side once again, then
rise throughout the day Sunday. It appears the bulk of
precipitation will arrive after snow levels rise above the valley
floors of the west side Sunday afternoon, but significant snow is
expected in the mountains Sunday evening and night, with around a
foot of new snow possible above 5000 feet. Snow levels will begin
to fall heading into the late night, but precipitation is
expected to lighten and transition to showers heading into Monday
morning.

Long term... Monday through next Thursday... Operational 12z
models start to diverge Monday, but the 18z GFS has come more in
line with the 12z operational ecmwf. The ensemble mean for the gfs
and ec ware very close however, and leaned towards whatever
operational run was closest to the ensemble mean for that period.

Winter continues to make up for being absent in our lives for
december by doting upon us with cold and low level snow through
most of next week.

On Monday the tail end of a system moves through Monday morning,
and unlike today there should be enough clearing and with nearly due
north flow at 700mb, there should be enough clearing to allow
temperature to rise into the mid 40s and melt the previous snow on
sun exposed road and sidewalk surfaces. The upper low digs south
into central ca by Tuesday morning, with the upper level ridge
nudging into the region with weak offshore flow indicating clearing
before early Tuesday morning allowing temperature to drop below
freezing in the west side valleys, and well below freezing on the
east side. The ridge retrogrades and the next, wetter system moves
in late Tuesday afternoon to evening. Although the entire forecast
for the next week looks interesting, Wednesday could be very
interesting with 850 mb temps indicating below -5 c during the warm
conveyor time. However, confidence is not high this far out and will
not stress this period until we get closer. -sven

Aviation 22 18z TAF cycle...VFR conditions are prevailing right
now as drier air moves in and the low drives farther down the coast.

There are still areas of showers, so local areas of ifr visibility
are possible obscuring mountains. As we head into the afternoon and
eveningVFR conditions will prevail.

There is the potential for reduced visibilities and patches of fog,
but right now our forecast calls for reduced visibilities down to
6sm. The inversion doesn't appear as strong compared to what we
usually see in january and december, so stayed away from putting fog
into the TAF today.

-smith

Marine Updated 300 pm pst Thursday 22 feb 2018... A low is moving
southward along the coast, causing increasing north winds over the
waters in its wake... Waves will remain high and steep this evening
and then subside after midnight. Waves will still remain steep with
a fresh swell coming in from the northwest mixed with a little bit
of wind wave. The wave heights are not expected to be high, but may
remain hazardous to some small crafts during Friday.

High pressure will build over the region Friday resulting in lighter
winds and calmer sea conditions that will last into Saturday. A
front will move onshore Sunday, and it will bring high and steep
northwest swell with it. Even heavier swell will move in Monday.

-smith

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory from 10 pm Friday to 4 pm pst Saturday
for orz027-028.

Freeze warning from 10 pm this evening to 10 am pst Friday for
orz021-022.

Winter weather advisory from 10 pm Friday to 4 pm pst Saturday
for orz021-023>026.

Winter storm warning from 10 pm Friday to 4 pm pst Saturday for
orz025.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 10 pm pst this
evening for pzz350-356-370.

Hazardous seas warning until 10 pm pst this evening for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Bpn sbn czs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46261 6 mi65 min 50°F9 ft
46260 13 mi65 min 50°F11 ft
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 23 mi42 min 51°F12 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 29 mi59 min N 13 G 25 49°F1027 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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--

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR22 mi39 minN 17 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F28°F62%1027.5 hPa

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4SE5SE5SE8S8S9S11SE9SE6SE7N13
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1 day agoSE4SW5S3E3SW5S9SE9SE5SE5SE5S6SE5SE3SE6SE3CalmCalmN6N6N7NW7N8N9N8
2 days agoN5SE3SE6SE7SE5S6SE9SE7SE8SE8SE10SE9S6SE9SE11SE9SE11SE10SE10S9S9S5SE5S5

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:17 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:15 AM PST     6.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:53 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:16 PM PST     1.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:56 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:18 PM PST     4.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:45 PM PST     2.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
22.94.15.36.26.76.55.94.83.52.31.411.21.82.73.74.44.84.74.23.52.82.3

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:17 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:03 AM PST     6.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:52 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:05 PM PST     1.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:55 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:06 PM PST     4.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:34 PM PST     2.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.134.25.46.26.66.35.64.53.22.11.311.21.92.83.84.44.74.643.32.72.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.