Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sheboygan Falls, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 7:47PM Sunday August 20, 2017 6:49 AM CDT (11:49 UTC) Moonrise 4:36AMMoonset 7:13PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 506 Am Cdt Sun Aug 20 2017
Today..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Monday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing south in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Showers and Thunderstorms likely through around midnight, then showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ643 Expires:201708201600;;667594 FZUS53 KMKX 201006 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 506 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ643-201600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sheboygan Falls, WI
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location: 43.73, -87.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 201041
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
541 am cdt Sun aug 20 2017

Update
The hrrr had been persistent all night in bringing some of that
iowa convection across parts of southern wisconsin. The latest
run, along with the experimental version, is now keeping it just
south of the border. Will hang onto that chance until more
confidence is gained that it will indeed stay south.

Aviation(12z tafs)
Vfr conditions are expected through most of the TAF period. There
is some patchy fog around the area early this morning that will
burn off by 13-14z this morning. We may see some showers and
storms around the area later tonight into Monday morning that
could briefly drop conditions to MVFR levels. More organized
showers and storms are expected later Monday and Monday night.

Prev discussion (issued 314 am cdt Sun aug 20 2017)
today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium.

The main question for today is whether some of the convection
across iowa will sneak into far southwest wisconsin later this
morning and afternoon. The models are a mixed bag with it. They
seem to be latching onto some sort of mcv, or mid level short wave
and firing off convection with it. We will struggle to have
enough moisture and instability to support that. Given trends at 2
am this morning, it seems reasonable to doubt that scenario. The
better airmass is southwest of wisconsin, so the progress of the
convective complex to the west should stay just out of the state.

Will carry a very small pop southwest of madison just in case,
but, in general, the area should be dry and warm today.

There's a better chance, though not great, that we could see some
showers and storms tonight. Again, the better focus should be
across iowa where convergence along a frontal boundary, combined
with a more unstable airmass, should result in a complex of storms
that would eventually trend east southeast with time. We will be
within a zone of rather deep warm and moist air advection across
southern wisconsin tonight with elevated instability and an
increasing low level jet. The models do show some showers and
storms developing within this region across southern wisconsin.

Worthy of a 30-40 pop for now.

Monday through Tuesday night... Forecast confidence is medium.

Models are generally showing the low level jet and steady warm air
advection continuing to pump warm and humid conditions into the
area Monday into Monday night. There may be some debris clouds
from convection passing through or to the south during the
morning. Frontal boundary remains to the north of the area as
well. There may be somewhat of a lull in any showers and
thunderstorms Monday, with rather weak upward vertical motion
fields. Kept chance pops for now. There may be a good amount of
cloud cover midday into middle afternoon Monday, which may limit
the viewing of the solar eclipse.

High pops for showers and thundestorms will continue for Monday
night, as the best low level frontogenesis response with the cold
front pushes through the area. This combines with fairly strong
upper divergence from right entrance region of 250 mb jet streak.

There is fairly robust mean layer cape, though some models are
overdone on dewpoints. Deep layer bulk shear is around 30 to 35
knots.

This combination brings a risk for strong to severe storms, per
spc day 2 slight risk over most of the area. This may be in the
form of an MCS moving through the area Monday night. Some models
suggest this may shift to the south of the area, while others
bring it east through the area. Heavy rainfall would also be a
concern, with precipitable water values around 2 inches and
favorable warm cloud depth. Slow storm propagation may allow for
some training of storms.

Hung onto pops mainly Tuesday morning in the the area, until the
front is totally out of the area. The afternoon may end up dry,
with strong cold air advection pushing into the area from the
northwest. It may take some time for dewpoints to drop to more
comfortable levels Tuesday. Closed low at 500 mb northeast of
lake superior will bring northwest flow over the area into Tuesday
night. Cooler and drier conditions are expected for Tuesday
night.

Wednesday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is high.

This period looks fairly dry and cool over the area, as northwest
flow at 500 mb prevails over the region. There is decent
agreement with high pressure sliding slowly southeastward across
the region Wednesday into Friday, before sliding to the east into
Saturday. Temperatures look to be below seasonal normals, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. This will be an early taste
of autumn air.

Aviation(06z tafs)...

vfr conditions are expected through the TAF period. The
exceptions would be some early morning fog with reduced
visibilities through about 13-14z this morning. But, that fog
should be mostly out in the countryside and may hit kmsn. There is
a chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight. Any stronger
convection would bring a temporary lowering of conditions. Look
for light winds this morning turning southerly and increasing to
about 10 to 15kts.

Marine...

southerly winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots today, especially
up toward sheboygan. The highest waves will also be up toward
sheboygan. The southerly winds will relax a bit on Monday and
eventually shift to the northwest on Tuesday in the wake of a
surface trough and cold front moving through. Winds and waves
should remain below small craft advisory levels for much of next
week.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Davis
today tonight and aviation marine... Davis
Monday through Saturday... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 7 mi49 min SW 5.1 G 5.1 65°F 1015.9 hPa (+1.1)60°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 24 mi69 min WNW 1 G 1.9 65°F 1016.9 hPa
45013 44 mi70 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 69°F 70°F1016.5 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 47 mi39 min SW 7 G 8 68°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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S14
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G17
NW10
G19

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI4 mi56 minSSW 38.00 miFair58°F57°F100%1016 hPa

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W6W7NW5W5W8W8W6W7W5W7SW7SW3SW5S3SW3SW4W5S3SW3SW3SW3CalmS3
1 day agoNW12
G15
W8NW11
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W9NW9
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W10W5NW9
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NW7NW5NW7
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NW53W3W4N4NW3CalmSW3W3W4W3
2 days agoS9S7S8S8SW12S14
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W11W10W10
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W8W11W6
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.