Tuesday, February20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sheboygan Falls, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 5:29PM Tuesday February 20, 2018 9:44 AM CST (15:44 UTC) Moonrise 10:17AMMoonset 11:38PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 906 Am Cst Tue Feb 20 2018
Rest of today..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then veering west late in the afternoon. Patchy fog through the day. Chance of rain late in the morning. Rain likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..West wind 10 to 20 knots veering northwest 15 to 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming 15 to 25 knots after midnight easing to 10 to 20 knots early in the morning. Patchy fog through around midnight. Chance of rain and slight chance of light freezing rain through around midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots veering north late in the evening, then veering northeast after midnight rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ643 Expires:201802202300;;270188 FZUS53 KMKX 201506 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 906 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ643-202300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sheboygan Falls, WI
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location: 43.73, -87.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 201106
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
506 am cst Tue feb 20 2018

Update
One surge of rain now, with freezing rain north of a lone rock to
sheboygan line. Another surge possible later this morning into the
early afternoon.

Aviation(12z tafs)
Conditions should generally be ifr or lifr early this morning, as
additional rain moves into the region. Some brief MVFR as the rain
mixes things a bit, but this is not expected to last, as
additional moisture lifts north.

Marginal improvements are expected today, though ifr will likely
persist for most of the day. Conditions should improve from the
west this evening, as a cold front sweeps across the area.

While no freezing or frozen precipitation is currently forecast
for the TAF sites, light freezing rain and or freezing drizzle is
expected this morning and possibly into the afternoon north of a
line from north of lone rock to fond du lac to sheboygan.

Prev discussion (issued 243 am cst Tue feb 20 2018)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium...

the biggest challenge continues to be in the expected surface
temps in the region hovering near or just below freezing northwest
of milwaukee and madison. Then the total precipitation amounts
across the area.

Decided on using the adjusted met temps from the NAM mos. This
looks better than the blend, which appears to be too warm.

The focus for the heaviest rainfall remains across the far
southeast, south into illinois. Additional we're still looking at
totals in the 1 2 to 3 4 inch range over the far southeast tip.

Additionally, a few thunderstorms may early morning far southeast.

Dense fog will be a problem for southern wi mainly early morning,
and have expanded the dense fog advisory north one more tier of
counties due to light winds, very moist conditions and an
existing snowpack.

There will likely be one more surge of rainfall today, due to
upward motion from the entrance region of the strong upper jet.

How far north this precipitation gets will dictate whether we see
another round of freezing drizzle and freezing rain in the winter
weather advisory area. This along with slowly rising daytime
temperatures continues the dance of any significant impacts.

We finally see a diminishing trend from west to east this evening
with most areas drying out during the evening on Tuesday, except
far southeast.

Any lingering precipitation is expected to wind down tonight
from northwest to southeast across the area. There is some
potential for light freezing rain or drizzle to occur during this
time, as drier air mixes out ice crystals. However, upward
vertical motion will be weakening, so not sure if this will even
materialize. Cold air advection is expected across the area
tonight.

Long term...

Wednesday through Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

After a quiet and cool day with diminishing northwest winds and
clearing skies, southern wi will get set up for our next round of
mixed precip. 850mb warm air advection, vorticity advection, and
upper divergence with the right entrance region of the upper jet
will contribute to precip arriving by Thursday evening. Precip
type will be our challenge once again. Freezing rain is very
possible given warm 850mb temps and our surface temps below
freezing, although differences between models suggest that there
may be enough saturation into the snow growth region to keep the
snow in the forecast as well. Precip will taper off Friday while
temperatures warm above freezing. Ice accumulation could be
around a tenth of an inch.

Saturday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Yet another system is expected to bring a mixed bag of precip to
southern wi Saturday into Sunday morning. At this time it seems
like a lower chance for freezing rain and a lot of our area should
see rain rather than snow.

Monday could bring another chance for light rain or snow.

Temperatures will remain quite mild through this period.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

conditions should generally be ifr or lifr early this morning, as
additional rain moves into the region. Low ceilings and fog will
also continue at the terminals. Some brief breaks from the fog
will be possible at kenosha, but this is not expected to last, as
additional moisture lifts north.

Marginal improvements are expected Tuesday, though ifr will likely
persist for most of the day. Conditions should improve from the
west this evening, as a cold front sweeps across the area.

While no freezing or frozen precipitation is currently forecast
for the TAF sites, light freezing rain and or freezing drizzle is
expected this morning north of a line from north of lone rock to
fond du lac to sheboygan.

Marine...

small craft advisory remains in effect for north of port
washington until 6 am. Further south, fog will reduce visibility
to less than 1 mile at times, and a marine dense fog advisory is
in effect, until noon.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Flood watch through this afternoon for wiz064>066-068>072.

Dense fog advisory until 8 am cst this morning for wiz056>060-
062>072.

Winter weather advisory until 3 pm cst this afternoon for wiz046-
047-051-052-056>058.

Lm... Dense fog advisory until noon cst today for lmz644>646.

Small craft advisory until 6 am cst early this morning for
lmz643.

Update... Hentz
today tonight and aviation marine... Hentz
Wednesday through Monday... Cronce


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 7 mi44 min S 7 G 7 34°F 1010.4 hPa (+1.0)34°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 24 mi64 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 38°F 1011.5 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 47 mi34 min SSE 8 G 8 35°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI4 mi52 minS 69.00 miOvercast35°F35°F100%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE4CalmNE6NE18
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NE16NE13NE16NE12NE14NE9NE7N6N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4
1 day agoS4S5S12S18
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S15S8S8S8S7S4S4S4CalmCalmCalm
2 days ago--SW11SW12SW12SW11SW9W8W6--SW8W12W9W14
G19
W10W9W8W9W10W6S6SW7SW4S4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.