Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sheboygan Falls, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 7:53PM Saturday April 29, 2017 6:24 AM CDT (11:24 UTC) Moonrise 8:34AMMoonset 11:42PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 300 Am Cdt Sat Apr 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of rain early in the afternoon. Rain likely late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet.
Tonight..Northeast wind up to 30 knots easing to 15 to 25 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 35 knots. Rain through around midnight, then rain likely after midnight. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Sunday..Northeast wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Rain showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 8 feet subsiding to 5 to 7 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Sunday night..Northeast wind 15 to 25 knots veering east 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and early morning, then becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight. Rain showers through the night. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
LMZ643 Expires:201704291615;;436976 FZUS53 KMKX 290800 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 300 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ643-291615-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sheboygan Falls, WI
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location: 43.73, -87.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 290751
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi
251 am cdt Sat apr 29 2017

Today and tonight Forecast confidence is high.

Expect a brief lull in the rain this morning. Then a long period
of rain will begin this afternoon.

A large trough extends across the rockies, which will strengthen
today as is moves east into southern and central plains. A strong
jet across the great lakes will lift a little north, as a jet max
rounds the base of the trough across western texas. Upper
divergence and 700 mb upward motion increases across southern
wisconsin today, and remains quite strong this afternoon and
tonight.

A 700 mb 50 knot jet MAX lifts north into southern and especially
southeast wisconsin this evening. This lifts the 700 mb warm
front north and will reach into southern wisconsin, bringing in
more moisture and ample lift to compliment the upper level
forcing. This will kick off an extended period of rainfall, as
the surface low lifts northeast into eastern kansas tonight,
bringing a strong warm front across central illinois.

Precipitable water values will have increased to around 1.00 inch
today, and near 1.30 inches tonight.

Elevated instability looks minimal, so wl hold off on any
thunder, until early morning Sunday in the far southeast, as the
850 mb warm front approaches from the south.

Sunday through Monday night Forecast confidence is high.

Main issue this period will be continued chances for heavy
rainfall and areal/river flooding. It appears that the models are
showing strong upward vertical motion fields Sunday into Sunday
evening. This is with strong low level frontogenesis response
fields across the area Sunday, with 850 mb convergence and the
nose of the 850 mb jet into the area.

Area forecast soundings are quite moist through the air column
during this time, with elevated CAPE of a few hundred j/kg on the
nam, a little less on the gfs. Kept the high pops for Sunday into
Sunday evening, and increased the thunder chances somewhat.

Good amounts of QPF are forecast to occur in the area Sunday into
Sunday evening, highest in the southeast counties. Amounts of
1.00 inch in the northwest counties, to 2.50 inches in the
southeast counties, are forecast for Sunday into Sunday evening.

Precipitable water values rise into the 1.50 to 1.65 inch range by
early Sunday evening, which is at the top end of climatology for
this time of year. Cips analogs also show a 1.5 sigma value for
precipitable water at 00z Monday, supportive of the heavier qpf
values. This rainfall may cause more of the area rivers to rise,
which may result in those rivers reaching minor flood stage. Will
continue to monitor this period for possible areal flood watches
in later forecasts, if the models stay consistent with the qpf
values.

The low and associated closed 500 mb low become nearly vertically
stacked later Sunday night into Monday, as they slowly shift
northeast into the region. The cold front moves northeast through
the area later Sunday night, as the low occludes to the west. Cold
air advection on gusty winds develops later Sunday night into
Monday morning, with the gusty winds lingering into Monday night.

It still looks like showers will occur later Sunday night into
Monday, but QPF values will be much lower. The shower activity
should slowly weaken into Monday night, as the system moves out of
the region. May see a few flakes mix in as the rain showers taper
off Monday night, with the colder airmass moving into the area.

Tuesday through Friday Forecast confidence is medium.

Models in this period are showing high pressure moving across the
region Tuesday into Wednesday, as low pressure remains to the
south of the area. This should bring a period of dry conditions
to the area, though low clouds may linger Tuesday before
scattering out Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures will
remain below seasonal normals during this period, warming somewhat
on Wednesday.

Gfs was trying to show light QPF with a passing 500 mb shortwave
trough Wednesday night into Thursday in parts of the northern and
western counties. The ECMWF is well to the northwest with these
features, and the canadian is somewhere in the middle of these two
models. They then differ somewhat with features into Friday. Thus,
will lean toward consensus blend of models for temperatures and
pops for later in the week. Temperatures may return more toward
seasonal normals by later in the week.

Aviation(06z tafs)
Rain is all but gone at this point, with just a little drizzle or
light rain hanging on in the northeast. Mainly dry weather is
thus expected for the rest of the night, with more rain moving in
later Sat morning into the afternoon.

Some lower ceilings continue to push in from the south. These are
expected to hang on across mainly the southern half of the
forecast area through at least early tonight, with ceilings
returning toVFR by early morning. More low clouds are likely to
return from the south by later Sat afternoon with the next batch
of rainfall.

Marine
A long duration of northeast to east winds will create high waves
through Sunday. A small craft advisory is in effect until
afternoon, with a gale warning from late afternoon into tonight.

A strong low will then track across central wisconsin, with
strong southwest to west winds behind an occluded front Sunday
night into Monday. A period of gale force winds after this front
is also possible.

Hydrology
Precipitable water values rise into the 1.50 to 1.65 inch range
by early Sunday evening, which is at the top end of climatology
for this time of year. Cips analogs also show a 1.5 sigma value
for precipitable water at 00z Monday, supportive of the heavier
qpf values during this time.

Total rainfall of 1.50 inches northwest, to nearly 3.50 inches
southeast, are forecast from tonight into Monday night, with most
of it falling tonight into Sunday evening. This rain would cause
more of the area rivers to rise, which may result in several
rivers reaching minor flood stage. Will continue to monitor this
period for possible areal flood watches in later forecasts, if the
models stay consistent with the QPF values.

Mkx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 4 pm cdt this afternoon for
lmz643>646.

Gale warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am cdt Sunday for
lmz643>646.

Today/tonight and aviation/marine... Hentz
Sunday through Friday... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 7 mi84 min NNE 22 G 24 40°F 1022.5 hPa (+3.9)35°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 24 mi44 min NNE 9.9 G 18 41°F 1022.7 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 47 mi44 min NNE 19 G 21 42°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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NE8
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G12

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan, Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI4 mi31 minNNE 10 G 1710.00 miFair37°F30°F79%1023.1 hPa

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W9SW7W9S7SW86SE11SE6SE6E3SE4CalmCalmE3NE3CalmN3N8N8N11NE7NE12N10
G17
1 day agoNW7NW11N10W17
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W12W10SW7W5W6W13SW10W13
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2 days agoS9S9S12
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S9S7S13S11S11SW18S15
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SW13SW12SW11SW12
G20
SW5W10W6NW9NW5--NW4N5N6N3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.