Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sheboygan Falls, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 4:24PM Saturday November 17, 2018 6:04 PM CST (00:04 UTC) Moonrise 3:03PMMoonset 1:29AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 505 Pm Cst Sat Nov 17 2018
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots backing west early in the morning. Mostly cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..West wind 10 to 15 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots backing southwest early in the morning. Partly cloudy through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering northwest late in the afternoon. Slight chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ643 Expires:201811180500;;461942 FZUS53 KMKX 172306 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 505 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ643-180500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sheboygan Falls, WI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.73, -87.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kmkx 172352
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
552 pm cst Sat nov 17 2018

Update Surge of drier air and increasing subsidence from the
northwest and shifting southward baroclinic zone across the
central ms valley should result in gradual thinning of clouds
across southern wi overnight. However low level winds remain
northeast in southeast wisconsin until after midnight. Hence low
clouds will likely hang on a bit in the area from kenosha to
milwaukee into the early morning before clearing. Delta-t an
impressive 15 degrees but low levels fairly dry so no lake effect
precipitation expected. However, latest experimental hrrr
developing some light snow showers south of milwaukee after 12z
Sunday. By this time, expect low level flow to be west-northwest
or light and variable. Hence wl continue dry forecast for now in
the far southeast early Sunday. Operational hrrr keeps light snow
showers well offshore late tonight and Sunday morning.

Northern areas have best chance of overnight clearing, so wl need
to watch temperatures closely in these areas.

Aviation(00z tafs) A gradual improvement is expected through
06z across southern CWA where MVFR ceilings linger. Drier air push
and increasing subsidence should result in the thinning trend.

Low clouds will likely hang on longer in southeast wi, closer to
lake michigan. Low level winds will remain from the northeast
until later tonight. This will likely cause fluctuating ceilings
between lowerVFR and MVFR in these areas until late tonight or
early Sunday. Not enough low level humidity to cause any
precipitation issues.

Prev discussion (issued 250 pm cst Sat nov 17 2018)
discussion...

tonight and Sunday... Forecast confidence is high.

Cloud cover is our main concern for the overnight hours. We are
expecting skies to clear toward central wi, so that area will
radiate out and temps should drop into the lower to mid teens.

Elsewhere, low clouds will be slower to clear. 1000-850mb winds
will be out of the northeast over far southeast wi through the
evening hours. That component off the lake will keep those low
clouds hanging around longest in that area. High clouds streaming
across far southern wi will also play a factor in our clearing
and the resultant temps. Min temps should only get into the lower
20s in southeast wi.

Sunday will be sunny with light westerly winds as high pressure
slides into the central plains. High temps will be similar to
today's, in the lower to mid 30s.

Monday and Monday night - confidence... Medium
broad mid level trough will be swinging through western great lakes
with embedded vorticity maxima. Surface 850 fronts will aid in lower
level forcing as well. A very light precipitation event here. The
ecmwf is dry in southern wi for the entire period while the GFS nam
show some minor QPF in the afternoon evening. Thicknesses 850 temps
overall support this would be snow showers though boundary level may
warm sufficiently for some rain mixed in for a time as well. With
the passage of the front a cold northerly flow takes hold with the
likelihood of offshore lake effect snow showers. Trajectories will
be key on whether any of these manage to brush our eastern areas.

Tuesday and Tuesday night - confidence... Medium
warm air advection gets underway with lingering influence of low
level thermal trough getting shunted to the east. Another system
will be off to our northwest throughout the day and then head into
southern wi for the evening. Consensus of model solutions suggest
any light QPF with this system would affect mainly our northeast cwa
in the form of some snow showers.

Wednesday through Thursday night - confidence... Medium
surface high builds in Wednesday with WAA set to arrive for thanksgiving
day and continue right into Friday. So mild temps are on the way.

Southwest winds and a broad low level anticyclonic curvature will
keep things on the dry side.

Friday and Saturday - confidence... Medium
the next decent chance of some precipitation arrives this period as
mid level flow shifts southwest and energy starts to approach from
upstream trough. The ECMWF is the slowest and would keep Friday on
the dry side while the gem and GFS bring rain into the area before
the day is out. Best model consensus for rain would be on Friday
night, though the ECMWF is still quite slow on bringing precip in.

Given the slower nature of the ECMWF and back edge of quicker
gfs gem, will hang on to some rain chances for Saturday. No real big
push of cold air in the wake of this system.

Aviation(21z tafs)... Ceilings are still hovering between 2000 and
4000 ft this afternoon, although there are lower ceilings around 1500
ft near the il border and south. Lower clouds should linger in southeast
wi due to a northeast component to the wind off the lake through late
evening. Elsewhere, clouds will clear from north to south, although
high clouds streaming over the area will likely delay the full
clearing. Expect quiet weather and sunny skies on Sunday.

Marine...

nearshore... Northwest winds may reach small craft advisory
criteria Tuesday night. Southerly winds may reach that level
Thursday night through Friday.

Open lake... A weak clipper crossing ontario will bring gusty
westerly winds up to 25 or 30 kt over the north half of lake
michigan on Sunday. The next breezy period will be Tuesday night
with northwesterly winds in the wake of another clipper. Southerly
wind gusts could approach gale force toward the north half
Thursday night through Friday.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... mbk
tonight Sunday and aviation marine... mbk
Sunday night through Saturday... Collar


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 7 mi65 min WNW 6 G 8 30°F 1028.3 hPa (+0.3)15°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 24 mi25 min N 2.9 G 4.1 30°F 1028.8 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 47 mi45 min NNW 8 G 9.9 32°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
Last
24hr
NW4
G10
NW5
G11
NW6
G10
NW5
G11
NW4
G8
NW6
G9
NW4
NW5
NW5
G8
N5
G9
NW3
G6
N7
G12
N7
G11
N9
G12
N7
G13
N7
G11
NW10
G13
NW8
G11
NW7
N6
G9
N5
G9
NW5
G8
NW3
N5
G8
1 day
ago
SW10
S10
SW7
G11
SW7
G10
S8
SW7
SW6
W5
G8
W7
G10
W4
G7
W3
W9
G13
W7
G10
W6
G11
W7
G10
W8
G11
W8
G16
W9
G14
W13
G20
W10
G17
W14
G20
W13
G19
W8
G15
W11
G17
2 days
ago
SW6
G12
SW6
S11
SW4
S11
SW8
G11
SW4
W5
SW6
G9
W6
W4
W4
--
NW4
--
W2
S6
S14
G17
S10
G13
S11
S11
S12
G15
S15
S14
G20

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI4 mi72 minN 310.00 miOvercast28°F15°F58%1028.6 hPa

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
Last 24hrNW10
G18
NW6W5W4NW6NW7CalmN4N6NW5NW4NW4W3N6N9N7N8N9N9N8N6CalmN3NW3
1 day agoSW6S6S7SW6SW5SW7SW6SW5W11W7W7
G16
W10
G17
NW8
G17
W10
G20
NW13
G21
W10
G20
W12
G19
W12
G18
W9
G22
W14
G24
NW12
G20
NW13
G23
W15
G21
NW10
2 days agoCalmCalmS3CalmSW3W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S9S5S7S5S10S10S6S5

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (19,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.