Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:00PM Thursday November 15, 2018 2:56 AM EST (07:56 UTC) Moonrise 1:42PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 943 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow early in the afternoon. Rain and snow likely late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain and snow until early morning...then rain and snow likely early in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming west 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots early in the afternoon. Rain and snow likely early in the morning...then a chance of snow showers late in the morning. A chance of showers in the late morning and early afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 7 feet early in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the northwest late in the afternoon...then decreasing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening. A chance of showers. A chance of snow showers early in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet until early morning.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers until early morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
LHZ463 Expires:201811150900;;318647 FZUS63 KDTX 150245 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 943 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Pressure will increase from 30.30 inches to 30.50 inches Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning across the Great Lakes region as higher pressure builds in from the west. High pressure averaging 30.60 inches will continue to move east and will settle across the Ohio Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Pressure will then gradually diminish back down to 30.20 inches through Thursday as a low pressure system approaches from the south, bringing a chance for rain that will transition over to snow late Thursday into early Friday. LHZ462>464-150900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 150443
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1143 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Aviation
Cirrus deck will remain rather thick overnight with mid level
cloudiness increasing under 15kft as well. A pocket of MVFR stratus
poised to the east will also bring at least periods of sct lower
clouds overnight as ese flow increases with approach of low pressure.

Lower CIGS will then work north by midday Thursday as the low passes
just south of the area. With this, a mixture of rain snow can be
expected with MVFR to borderline ifr conditions. Timing will be
about 15z-17z for i-94 and 18z-20z kfnt north.

For dtw... A mixture of rain snow can expected as low pressure passes
the area on Thursday. Ceilings will drop to MVFR with this activity.

Start time is a bit in question, but should be late morning to early
afternoon. Confidence remains pretty low in ptype as relatively mild
surface temperatures will duel with varying precipitation rates to
bring periods of light rain, rain snow, or even straight light snow
at times.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* low for ptype of rain snow mix Thursday afternoon.

* low for CIGS below 5000 ft through tonight increasing to high by
Thursday afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 305 pm est Wed nov 14 2018
discussion...

benign weather conditions will exist for the tonight period, as
southeast michigan briefly resides between energetic northern stream
westerly flow and a closed mid level circulation now centered over
arkansas. General large scale subsidence contained within this
pattern will solidify the resident cool and dry environment right
through the morning hours Thursday. Radiational cooling potential
not nearly as ideal tonight, given the eastward displacement of the
surface high to the east and the eventual influx of cirrus cloud
from the south. Potential for the coldest locales to bottom out in
the mid-upper teens, elsewhere lows settling into the 20s.

Steady east-northeast ejection of the upper low takes the center of
this system through the southern ohio valley on Thursday. The
projected pace of this movement continues to indicate that
sufficient separation of potential vorticity will exist between this
feature and the trailing strong inbound wave of north pacific
origin. This will tend to focus the stronger dynamic response
downstream across the east coast. Brief window for moderate
isentropic ascent in the presence of emerging mid level deformation
forcing will progressively lift northwest into southeast michigan
through the day. A solid surge of theta-e advection anchored on this
forcing will subsequently support an expanding swath of
precipitation over the region during this time. Deep layer of sub-
freezing wet bulb temperatures will leave the onset precipitation
type as snow, but with a tendency for rain to mix in at times by
afternoon once fully saturated as temperatures within the boundary
layer nudge above freezing - particular southeast of the glacial
ridge. Daytime accumulation mainly reserved to grassy surfaces with
temperatures above freezing, with a strong reliance on the
development of some heavier snowfall rates to witness accums on
pavement. Highs Thursday in the mid 30s.

Deformation axis will arc from southern lake michigan into the tri-
cities by Thursday evening, before washing back eastward while
weakening overnight. Greatest potential for more meaningful
accumulation will exist within this axis early Thursday night, as
longer residence time of forcing more efficiently capitalizes on a
cooling nocturnal boundary layer condition. Provided an upward nudge
in forecast snowfall totals accordingly for the saginaw valley and
northern thumb - still within the 1-2 inch range at this stage.

A trailing strong shortwave surges across the region Friday morning.

Quick shot of light snow possible given the strength of the compact
forcing contained along the height fall gradient. Greater potential
with northward extent although a mixed signal yet within the model
spectrum on the overall potential. A period of weak post-frontal
cold air advection countered by the diurnal timing, allowing for
modest temperature recovery. Highs mid-upper 30s, under gusty
westerly winds.

Cool conditions - temps on the order of 10 degrees below normal -
will continue through the extended period. A longwave trough will
remain nearly stationary over hudson bay, with a series of
shortwaves rotating through the flow over the great lakes helping to
maintain it into next week. The coldest temps will be held off just
to the north with mostly zonal flow over our area. Still, highs
Saturday through mid next week will have a hard time rising out of
the 30s and lows will settle in the 20s. A few chances for light
precip exist during this period as well as the shortwaves provide
some lift, with the best chances looking like Saturday and again
late Monday with cold fronts moving in from the northwest.

Marine...

high pressure centered over the eastern lakes will keep winds and
waves in check through this evening. Winds will switch around to
southerly on the backside of the high tonight with a brief increase
in wind speeds expected. Winds will stay below 25 knots and any
larger waves should remain primarily over the open waters due to the
wind direction. There could be a brief window Thursday morning when
winds become more southeasterly which could cause some larger waves
to clip the nearshore waters from outer saginaw bay down to harbor
beach. Waves height will be marginal and duration too short to issue
an advisory. A cold front will then push across the region on
Friday, resulting in a veering of the winds from south to west-
northwest and modest uptick in wind speeds.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Mr tf
marine... ... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 22 mi57 min SSE 16 G 19 33°F 47°F2 ft1030.7 hPa (-2.6)
PSCM4 47 mi57 min S 8 G 11 31°F 1030.1 hPa (-2.1)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi39 min SW 5.1 G 7 29°F 38°F1030.2 hPa19°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi39 min SE 11 G 13 29°F 1029.3 hPa19°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi39 min 29°F 1029.3 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi66 minWNW 4 mi29°F18°F63%1031.1 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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W9NW12NW7NW8N3NW5NW4W3SW3CalmSW3CalmSW4SW3SW3NW4
1 day agoNW8NW105NW10
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2 days agoSW4SW4S3SW4SW4SW5SW44W6W5556W5W3W3W5NW9NW9N6NW8NW7NW8NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.