Tuesday, January23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 5:25PM Tuesday January 23, 2018 2:47 AM EST (07:47 UTC) Moonrise 11:20AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 40% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 359 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the morning.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the southwest in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots late in the afternoon. Showers. Snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Snow showers early in the evening. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet early in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable...then becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots late in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the late evening and early morning. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers. A chance of snow showers in the late evening and early morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
LHZ463 Expires:201801230915;;843894 FZUS63 KDTX 222059 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 359 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure, 29.40 inches, will continue to push towards the Saginaw Bay by Tuesday morning. Easterly gales are expected over the north half of Lake Huron into the evening as this system approaches. Wind will diminish Monday night as the low moves through central portions of the the lake. Moderate northwest wind will trail the system Tuesday followed by weak high pressure Wednesday. LHZ463-464-230915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 230523
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1223 am est Tue jan 23 2018

Aviation
Arc of showers and thunderstorms have developed along the western
flank of pristine theta E ridge. Both hi-res NAM and hrrr runs
project convecting pushing through metro detroit through 7z, quickly
dissipating as it lifts northeastward towards the thumb. Upstream
surface observations support a surface wind gust to 40 knots
possible, although higher near surface stability resides here
locally vs. What is in place over northern ohio. Otherwise, given
dynamics and changing of wind directions, confidence in cig and vsby
trends is low for the remainder of tonight. Fog has developed
aggressively north of m46. Forecast soundings suggest it will
dissipate by daybreak with surface winds turning to the southwest.

Confidence in this timing is low. The other item was to time the
transition of rain to snow Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon. At
this time, confidence remains low on timing as the overall setup
suggests a high dependence on depth of saturation and precipitation
rates. Forecast soundings and some hi-res output suggests that
quality of moisture will be lacking on Tuesday. Precipitation will
ultimately hinge on convective response that will occur with the
vorticity maximum and remnant deformation axis that will stripe
across the area. The best potential snowfall accumulations will be
across the northern cwa.

For dtw... MVFR is expected to settle back down into ifr this evening
as nocturnal boundary layer cooling occurs. 02-04z time window
appears set for a line of broken showers to lift up from the south,
or develop overhead. A thunderstorm will also be possible, but
confidence remains very low. A mix of rain and snow is forecasted by
late Tuesday morning. Lack of forcing, precipitation coverage, and
warm surface accumulations will limit any snowfall accumulations.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less throughout the period.

* high for rain as precipitation type tonight, transitioning to a
rain snow mix by Tuesday afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 359 pm est Mon jan 22 2018
mature dry slot has been fully entrained into the stacked cyclone
presently situated over iowa at 20z. Diminishing forcing within the
lead warm conveyor is supporting light showers in the process of
exiting stage right at press time. With cold air still back over
missouri, SE michigan will be engulfed the resident warm airmass
until the predawn hours. In the meantime, encroaching dryslot will
scour out mid-level moisture shortly, leaving drizzle as the only
precip threat for the next several hours. Lead edge of the deeper
cold air and the convergent back edge of the dry slot currently
supporting thunderstorms over illinois will rotate into the area
from the southwest after about 06z tonight. Just a high chc low end
likely W a chc thunder during this time as convergence diminishes
with time. Stratiform light rain snow and low clouds noted over mid-
missouri this aftn will lift into the area by sunrise beneath the
core of upper level cold air. Northern periphery of this precip
shield may manifest as some light snow, but wet warm surface and
light rates will ensure little to no accums. Surface trough will
pivot through during tues aftn bringing a brief and more strongly
forced window for snow followed by temps falling through the 30s
into the upper 20s by evening. High pressure and climatologically
average temps for Wednesday while lingering low-level moisture
supportive of low stratus and high clouds streaming in ahead of the
next shortwave ensure cloud skies one way or another.

Upper level ridging will build into the region Thursday into Friday
bringing dry conditions and a warming trend as highs increase from
the mid 30s on Thursday to the mid 40s by Friday. An upper wave
dropping into the northwest us will then support the development of
low pressure across the northern plains on Friday that will move
eastward along the canadian border before lifting across ontario on
Saturday. This low pressure system will bring the next chance for
precipitation to the region next weekend as moisture increases ahead
of a cold front that will slowly push east across the region through
Sunday. Model discrepancies continue regarding the timing of the
frontal passage and location of the increased moisture transport
ahead of it. The ECMWF currently favors a slower, wetter frontal
passage for SE michigan while the GFS cmc solutions show a quicker,
drier frontal passage. For now expect a period of rain showers ahead
of the frontal passage on Saturday with temperatures in the 40s
before a transition to rain snow showers as temperatures fall into
the 30s on Sunday.

Marine...

low pressure over iowa with a warm front extending across central
michigan and lake huron is producing strong easterly flow across
northern lake huron. This front will remain nearly stationary with
lighter southernly flow to the south. The low pressure will track
along the front across lake huron Tuesday afternoon. Gusts to near
gales or marginal gales will develop late Tuesday afternoon and
continue into Tuesday night across all of lake huron. Winds and
gusts will decrease by Wednesday and remain relatively light through
the rest of the week. Another increase in winds will come for the
weekend.

Prev discussion...

issued at 343 pm est Mon jan 22 2018

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... Jvc jd
marine... ... .Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSCM4 47 mi48 min S 5.1 G 6 34°F 998.6 hPa (-2.1)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi48 min S 9.9 G 11 36°F 996.9 hPa (-2.6)36°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi48 min SSW 8 G 11 46°F 998.3 hPa (-1.5)43°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi48 min 45°F 998.5 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi57 minSE 4 mi37°F36°F96%996.8 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E8E8E9E11E10E14E14E15E10E13SE12SE10SE10
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1 day agoSW7SW6W44SW5SW5SW6SW6S5CalmE4SE5E5SE3SE5CalmCalmCalmSE5SE3SE6SE6CalmE6
2 days agoW12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.