Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:52PM Saturday May 25, 2019 10:53 PM EDT (02:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:55AMMoonset 10:53AM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Expires:201905260800;;465742 Fzus63 Kdtx 260205 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 955 Pm Edt Sat May 25 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Low pressure averaging 29.60 inches moves out of the great lakes region into ontario this evening. High pressure averaging 30.10 inches will travel from the northern plains into the great lakes region Sunday. High pressure to hold through the weekend until low pressure averaging 29.60 inches moves across the midwest into northern lower michigan early next week. Lhz462>464-260800- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 955 pm edt Sat may 25 2019
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the morning.
Sunday..Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Light and variable winds. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots after midnight. A chance of Thunderstorms. Rain showers likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the south late in the evening. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then veering to the south early in the evening becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning. Showers likely early in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming west 5 to 10 knots until early morning. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning.
LHZ463


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 252310
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
710 pm edt Sat may 25 2019

Aviation
The jet stream overhead will become more zonally orientated
overnight. This will suppress geopotential heights over the central
great lakes forcing a cold front to sag backdoor through the area
overnight. Persistence of strong s.E. U.S. Ridging will cause the
front to hang up immediately south of metro detroit or the mi oh
state line for Sunday. Very modest cold air advection will occur over
southern lower michigan, but drying from midlevel subsidence will
lead to a stable column for much of the cwa. At this time, will go
with dry tafs as any shower potential Sunday will occur south of dtw.

Model soundings are trying to show some hz potential overnight, and
will be monitoring the trends this evening in latest model guidance.

Certainly possible to see some MVFR vsby reductions. For now, models
are a little aggressive in generating stratus instead. Maintained a
vfr ceiling for the detroit terminals with some right entrance region
dynamics interacting with the frontal boundary to the south.

Relatively weak easterly winds Sunday, but potential does exist for
sustained winds to exceed 7 knots.

For dtw...VFR skies tonight with some potential for MVFR vsby
restrictions overnight due to br hz.VFR CIGS throughout Sunday with
precipitation remaining south of dtw Sunday afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* low for CIGS of 5kft or less early Sunday morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 432 pm edt Sat may 25 2019
discussion...

the window for marginal severe thunderstorms closes as the corridor
of upper level support finishes sliding through SE michigan. This
larger scale forcing was weak but just enough to help erode a modest
mid level cap that was evident earlier in the day. Afternoon
mesoanalysis measured surface based CAPE of 1500-2000 j kg and
mlcape in the 500-1000 j kg range which was strong enough to take
advantage of surface to 6 km bulk shear around 50 kts. Multicell
clusters were slow to intensify in this environment in terms of
lightning flash rate but showed hints of organization in radar
reflectivity depictions. The multicell storm mode initially
presented pockets of damaging wind and severe hail threats where
updrafts could organize with some mid level rotational enhancement.

A trend toward more organized line segments occurred as convection
matured with a larger damaging wind footprint occurring downriver to
the ohio border.

Passage of the subtle upper wave nudges the weak surface cold front
south of the ohio border tonight but not far enough for elevated
portions of the front to clear SE michigan. This maintains a path
for new nocturnal convection to develop over the midwest and move
downstream along near the border. The source region across the
central plains to mid mississippi valley tonight provides low level
jet forced convection into the frontal zone that is further enhanced
and lifted northeast by the entrance region of the upper jet setting
up over central lower michigan toward sunrise. Model depictions of
the low level theta-e gradient point to the south four SE michigan
counties for chance pops late tonight through Sunday with some
potential for northward adjustment depending on the effectiveness of
the entrance region to manipulate the mid level frontal circulation.

A short pause in shower storm potential occurs Sunday night and
Monday morning. The upper jet segment moves eastward and leaves low
amplitude short wave ridging overhead while the next low pressure
system organizes across the plains. This system pulls the front back
north over lower michigan Monday night returning an active period of
showers and thunderstorms to the region through Tuesday.

Marine...

low pressure and the associated cold front moving across the central
great lakes supports scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the
evening mainly across lake st clair and western erie. Marine
conditions otherwise consist of light to moderate wind and minimal
wave impacts outside of thunderstorms as the front stalls south of
lake erie. High pressure brings dry weather to a larger portion of
marine areas Sunday with the possible exception of western lake
erie. Showers and thunderstorms increase again across the central
great lakes Monday night as the next low pressure system moves into
the midwest and pulls the stalled front back northward across the
western great lakes.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Bt
marine... ... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 22 mi54 min SSW 9.7 G 12 49°F 39°F1 ft1011.4 hPa (+0.9)
PSCM4 47 mi54 min WSW 6 G 12 70°F 1029.8 hPa (+1.0)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi36 min WSW 11 G 14 71°F 53°F1011.4 hPa63°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi42 min WSW 7 G 8.9 71°F 1012.2 hPa61°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi42 min 67°F 1012.2 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi63 minWSW 9 G 17 mi71°F66°F84%1009.7 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE6SE7S7S7
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1 day agoW6W6W7W6NW8NW4W3NW6NW6N4NW4NW5NW5N5NE6CalmNE4E3E8E11SE4SE6E11SE7
2 days agoS7S65SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.