Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:17PM Monday August 21, 2017 9:37 PM EDT (01:37 UTC) Moonrise 5:21AMMoonset 7:27PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 352 Pm Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers with Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Showers and Thunderstorms likely early in the evening. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening. A chance of showers until late afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots until early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ463 Expires:201708220815;;737686 FZUS63 KDTX 211952 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 352 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure...averaging 29.80 inches...developing over the Midwest today will lift northeast through the Straits Tuesday morning. This low will then pull a cold front across Lake Huron and Lower Michigan during the afternoon. High pressure...averaging 30.00 inches... will then build into the region Wednesday through the end of the week. LHZ462>464-220815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 212316
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
716 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017

Aviation
Chance of convection will increase late tonight into Tuesday morning
as frontal boundary works into the central great lakes. So, other
than hit miss showers storms within high theta-e environment this
evening, expect best chance to work from kmbs 07z-10z east and
southeast through the remainder of the terminals by 10z-14z. The
cold front does not clear area until afternoon, so another round of
widely scattered convection will be possible late in the day. Winds
will gust to 20+ knots both in southwest flow prior to FROPA and
west northwest flow in its wake. MVFR lowerVFR CIGS can be expected
Tuesday with rather quick clearing in the evening as drier airmass
works in behind the front.

For dtw... Best chance for storms will come late tonight into Tuesday
morning with a secondary chance along the cold front by afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for a thunderstorm Tuesday morning.

* medium for ceilings AOB 5000 feet at times Tuesday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 337 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017
discussion...

a mid level trough extending from a closed low over hudson bay into
the upper plains will sweep through the great lakes Tuesday. This
will spinup a surface low over wisconsin tonigh that will lift
northeast while driving a cold front through southeast michigan from
late morning through the late afternoon. In the meantime, warm moist
air continues to advect into lower michigan increasing instability
and the chance for showers and thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms
have developed across northern washtenaw county along an elevated
boundary from early convection to the south that has drifted
northward. With no real dynamics this afternoon and tonight, it will
take smaller mesoscale features to initiate any convection. Will
carry lower pops for most of the area through the night but do expect
that there will be some activity, just not everyone will see it.

Best shot will be to the west and north where a bit more moisture and
forcing will begin occurring late tonight as the front approaches.

Band of showers and thunderstorms will work its way southeast
Tuesday with the front with the bulk of the activity confined across
the northern half of the CWA which will be more influenced by the
entrance region of the upper jet and stronger pva. Further south
will still likely to have showers and thunderstorms with the front
but not as much concentration. The atmosphere will be tropically
moist so there will be a threat for heavy downpours and strong gusts
from precip load shedding along with some hail until frontal passage
but widespread severe weather is not expected.

Skies will begin clearing early afternoon midalnd and bay and work
its way through the rest of the forecast area by sunset. It will be
warm and muggy tonight and Tuesday as dewpoints remain nr 70. The
much cooler drier air will begin advecting in Tuesday night as high
pressure builds in and remains in control for several days bringing
below average temps for Wednesday and especially Thursday.

An upper level trough will remain in place over the region through
the end of the week keeping a prolonged period of cooler conditions
in place. A shortwave pivoting through the trough will bring a
chance for isolated showers and scattered clouds on Thursday as
highs struggle to top 70 across southeast michigan. High pressure
will then build into the region through the end of the week keeping
dry conditions in place. Temperatures will remain slightly below
average with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s
through the weekend.

Marine...

the next low pressure system and associated cold front will be
advancing toward the great lakes tonight and then passing through
the region on Tuesday. Light southerly wind will continue this
evening but will increasing from the southwest later tonight as low
pressure deepens while moving into the straits region. Wind and
waves will remain below SCA thresholds leaving widespread showers
and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front as the primary marine
weather impact before the frontal passage. Strong northwest wind
behind the front will have gusts reaching 30 knots over the open
waters of lake huron late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night as
colder air spills into the region. As it stands now, the wind
pattern will be from the northwest direction enough to keep the
highest waves offshore of the southern lake huron nearshore zones
before veering toward the north and weakening during Wednesday. The
incoming air mass will be cold enough to produce enough instability
over the water for marginal waterspout potential Wednesday into
Thursday.

Hydrology...

a low pressure system over the plains states will reach the straits
region by Tuesday morning and pull a strong cold front through lower
michigan. Moisture humidity will increase considerably ahead of the
front and provide fuel for numerous showers and thunderstorms late
tonight through Tuesday. Basin average 24 hour rainfall totals are
expected to be in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range with locally higher
amounts near 1 inch possible where multiple thunderstorms occur. The
potential for flooding is expected to be limited by the fast
movement of the associated cold front which is projected to exit
eastward by Tuesday evening.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Drc jd
marine... ... .Rbp
hydrology... .Rbp
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 22 mi98 min SSE 7.8 G 7.8 75°F 71°F1015.3 hPa (-1.4)
PSCM4 47 mi38 min S 8 G 8.9 72°F 1015.2 hPa (-1.4)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi50 min S 7 G 8.9 76°F 1014.4 hPa67°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi50 min S 7 G 11 79°F 1015.2 hPa65°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi50 min 78°F 1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi47 minSSE 4 mi76°F66°F72%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S3CalmCalmSW4SW3SW3SW3SW5SW5SW7SW7W5SW83NE6E6SE4SE9SE9SE10SE9S8S4
1 day agoS3SW5SW5W3SW4SW5SW5SW5SW7SW6SW8SW85W85W7W8SW7SW76NE8CalmCalmS3
2 days agoW7W6W5W63SW3W3CalmW54W4W5W8W10NW9
G19
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.