Monday, May22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:50PM Monday May 22, 2017 5:25 PM EDT (21:25 UTC) Moonrise 3:13AMMoonset 4:02PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 342 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots in the morning becoming light and variable. Scattered showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the north in the late evening and overnight. A chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening. A chance of showers until early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots late in the morning...then becoming north 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming light and variable until early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ463 Expires:201705230815;;040793 FZUS63 KDTX 221942 GLFLH OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE HURON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 342 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OFF SHORE ON LAKE HURON WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. .SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AVERAGING 29.70 INCHES... POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE...AVERAGING 30.00 INCHES...OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A SECOND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. LHZ462>464-230815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 221915
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
315 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Discussion
Not much time to dry out, as rain chances increase over next 48
hours. 70-75 knot jet core at 500 mb/110-115 knots at 300 mb exiting
northeast early this evening, with moisture advection and right
entrance forcing already bringing a scattered/chance of showers
(remote chance of a thunderstorm) as we become modestly unstable
with li's nearing zero over tri-cities region. Narrow, but
potentially sufficient 850-700 mb theta-e moisture axis, with pw
values around 1 inch move over northern half of the CWA toward 12z
Tuesday, stalling out over the rest of southeast michigan during
Tuesday. Modestly unstable daytime instability (mlcapes 250-500
j/kg), weak low level convergence, and leftover moisture axis could
be enough to trigger convection but upper level shortwave ridge axis
in place may be enough of a deterrent. Overall, will be favoring
mostly scattered coverage for both tonight and tomorrow, with pops
hovering around 50 percent north of m-59 and quickly tapering off
south. Mav/met guidance appears to be too aggressive tomorrow
compared to local probabilistic SREF weighted guidance. Inherited
temps tonight/tomorrow looked reasonable with low level warm
advection pushing 925 mb temps at or above 15 c by tomorrow
afternoon, supportive of lower 70s.

Large upper level low centered near northern minnesota will sink
south into the midwest tomorrow and reaching the southern
mississippi river valley late tomorrow. With placement of warm
conveyor belt arching back through the northern ohio valley. One
issue is the lead low/storm system riding along the gulf coast
today/tomorrow, reaching the mid atlantic coast early Wednesday
morning. How much impact will this system have on the moisture
transport? It appears it will just have a temporary disruption/
impact, as the main low deepens over the ohio valley during
Wednesday. Good deformation showers expected to spread over
southeast michigan by Wednesday evening, with substantial rainfall
(greater than half an inch), as 850 mb dew pts of 10 c arrive, per
12z canadian/euro. Although, 12z euro may be exhibiting its typical
bias of over-deepening the low by Thursday morning, as NAM is 8 mb
weaker, so not fully on-board with QPF in excess of 1 inch just yet
with what looks like modest instability.

An upper-level cut-off low situated over the ohio valley will bring
on and off rain chances throughout Thursday as temperatures peak in
the mid to upper-60s. The cut-off low is expected to push northeast
throughout Friday as an upper-level ridge pushes across the great
lakes. This will act to scour out some cloud cover and bring
relatively dry conditions through the day, although some embedded
short-waves could provide the low chance for a light pop-up shower.

For the extended weekend, a weak surface low is expected to move
east across in/oh Saturday into Sunday as an upper-level ridge
pushes across michigan, which would hold prolonged rain chances just
south of the mi/oh border. Slightly better rain chances are
forecasted for Sunday as a trough swings through from the central
plains, pushing a weak warm front through southern michigan.

Additional rain chances possible on Monday, although only the gfs
run is picking up on measurable rain chances as it develops and
pushes a low from ia into northern lower mi. Overall, the main
message for rain chances -- weak forcing will allows for spotty rain
chances during the extended period, with Friday into early Saturday
bring having the highest odds to stay relatively dry. Higher
confidence regarding forecasted highs -- mid to upper-60s for
Thursday, with a warming trend into the 70s starting Friday and
continuing through memorial day.

Marine
Diminishing wind during the late afternoon and evening will allow
ongoing small craft advisories to expire on time. The wind will
continue to ease after sunset and remain light through Tuesday. A
weak surface trough will separate northern and southern lake huron
until dissipating Tuesday night in favor of the next low pressure
system. This low will produce an active rain pattern and bring up a
moderate northeast wind over marine areas Wednesday into Thursday.

The long fetch of onshore flow could result in waves exceeding small
craft advisory threshold for saginaw bay and southern lake huron.

Hydrology
Low pressure developing over the ohio valley Wednesday will stall
and intensify through Wednesday night. A band of rain is expected to
develop on the north side of the system and spread into lower
michigan mainly during Wednesday night. Rainfall totals averaging
0.75 inch are likely with locally higher amounts in thunderstorms.

Ponding of water on area roads and in other prone areas is likely,
especially considering the widespread activity over the weekend that
left the ground saturated in most areas.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1233 pm edt Mon may 22 2017
aviation...

a pocket of dry air will bring clear sky to scattered cloud
conditions through the remainder of the afternoon. That will leave
the gusty southwest wind as the most significant aviation condition
until early evening. The gust component will diminish with the loss
of daytime heating while light gradient wind continues through the
night. A noticeable increase in mid clouds is expected during the
evening associated with low pressure moving through the border
region of iowa/wisconsin/illinois. Some high based showers are
projected by most model solutions to move across SE michigan mainly
affecting the fnt to mbs area with someVFR rainfall. Upstream
observations also indicate some lightning over iowa during the late
morning in support of some of the models with greater rainfall
intensity over lower michigan tonight. The forecast approach for now
will be to carry a tempo group forVFR light rain at mbs and monitor
trends for coverage and intensity in later updates.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Sf/am
marine... ... .Bt
hydrology... .Bt
aviation... ..Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 22 mi85 min S 5.8 G 7.8 47°F 42°F1 ft1013.5 hPa (-1.1)
PSCM4 47 mi25 min WSW 12 G 20 64°F 1013.5 hPa (-0.4)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi37 min W 11 G 19 64°F 1012 hPa42°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi37 min W 12 G 18 68°F 1013.2 hPa40°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi37 min 68°F 1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi34 minW 10 G 15 mi63°F44°F50%1011.7 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE114W8
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1 day agoE8E19E9SE14SE16SE12SE11E12E13E15SE13SE11SE18
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2 days agoN9N6N5N8
G15
N13N14NE16NE16NE17NE18NE18NE18NE19NE21E20E17E14E13NE13NE15NE17NE18NE17E8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.