Monday, April23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 8:18PM Monday April 23, 2018 10:53 PM EDT (02:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:20PMMoonset 2:15AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 954 Pm Edt Mon Apr 23 2018
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the south after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the north after midnight. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then decreasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. A chance of showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. A chance of showers early in the evening. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots late in the morning...then backing to the south late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north. A chance of snow showers early in the morning. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ463 Expires:201804240800;;404943 FZUS63 KDTX 240156 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 954 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Ridge of high pressure, 30.20 inches, extending over the northern Great Lakes will begin to retreat eastward tonight as a weak cold front approaches Lake Superior from the north. Rain showers will spread over the region ahead of the front before it moves through Lake Huron and Lower Michigan Tuesday night and early Wednesday. The front will be followed briefly by high pressure, 29.90 inches, Thursday before the next cold front arrives Friday. LHZ462>464-240800-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 232306
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
706 pm edt Mon apr 23 2018

Aviation
Clouds will thicken from the south this evening with sprinkles
moving into area as low level moisture increases with time. Expect a
drop to MVFR conditions late tonight into Tuesday morning with a
continued lowering of CIGS vsbys during the course of the day as
better deformation forcing leads to an expanding (although likely
disorganized patchy) field of light rain and fog. Best rainfall may
actually hold off until after forecast period as northern stream
shortwave digs into area and provides better upper level support.

For dtw... Sprinkles will work into the area in the 04z-06z time
frame with eventual MVFR CIGS late tonight (possibly dropping to ifr
Tuesday afternoon). Intermittent light showers can be expected thru
much of Tuesday with patches of fog lending itself to ifr lower MVFR
vsbys.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for ceilings AOB 5000 ft after 08z Tuesday.

* high for rain as precipitation type.

Prev discussion
Issued at 335 pm edt Mon apr 23 2018
discussion...

a mild day across southeast michigan, as temperatures top out around
70 degrees. Unfortunately, going to be shaving close to 10 degrees
tomorrow, and close to another 10 degrees on Wednesday.

Large upper level low over the central mississippi river valley this
afternoon will slowly slide east into the central appalachians
tomorrow night, and begin to merge with the northern stream upper
level wave currently tracking through central canada.

Modest height falls and enough moisture transport expected tonight
(pw values rising to near 1 inch) into Tuesday to support light
showers with low level troughing inverted surface trough becoming
established, along with some modest mid level fgen upper level
divergence. Although the forecast will feature showers likely, good
chance the bulk of daylight hours will be dry at any given point.

Stronger upper wave height falls to arrive Wednesday morning, with
the mid level cold pool (-25 c at 500 mb) tracking across the
central great lakes during the day. Deeper moisture looks to be
shunted off to the east Tuesday night, so may be able to get away
with most of Wednesday being dry, as the 12z nam GFS remain more
progressive with the northern stream trough axis. However, the 12z
euro is remaining consistent with a slower closing off 700-500 mb
low developing over southern lower michigan, and with support from
ukmet, prefer to keep a chance of showers in the forecast for
Wednesday. Temperatures should be holding in the lower 50s as 850 mb
mb temps lower to between -2 c to zero.

Although the euro even wants to hold onto showers Wednesday evening,
will allow for the post frontal drying subsidence to kick in, with
skies clearing out Wednesday night as anticyclone builds in.

Assuming this is a case, good chance for many sites to drop at or
below freezing with favorable radiating conditions.

Fairly quiet weather for the latter half of the week into the
weekend. A shortwave ridge will slide through the region on Thursday
resulting in another sunny day with temps reaching into the 60s as
southwest flow returns ahead of the next trough. This trough will
sweep through lower mi on Friday bringing a narrow band of showers
across the area along a cold front. Surface high pressure quickly
filling in behind this front with upper level ridge building east
into the region as well. Northwesterly flow will prevent better
heating across the great lakes but temps will still hover in the mid
50s through the weekend.

Marine...

the ridge of high pressure over lake huron will slowly exit to the
east while moisture moves in from the south overnight via the
tennessee valley low pressure system. Scattered rain showers will
persist over the area Tuesday into Wednesday. A weak cold front
moving in early on Wednesday will shift light and variable winds to
moderate and northerly with gusts above 25 kt by midday. This will
result in wave heights likely above 4 ft and therefore above the
threshold for small craft advisories. Winds will weaken Wednesday
evening and back to westerly then southwesterly by Thursday evening
as high pressure slides through the great lakes. The next cold front
is still on track to arrive Thursday night into Friday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Sf dk
marine... ... .Tf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSCM4 47 mi54 min NNW 5.1 G 7 44°F 1022 hPa (+0.3)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi54 min ESE 1 G 1.9 45°F 1021 hPa (+0.0)31°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi54 min NNE 7 G 8.9 42°F 1021 hPa (+0.5)37°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi54 min 46°F 1020.9 hPa (+0.5)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi63 minESE 6 mi47°F35°F63%1021.6 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE4SE3SE3CalmCalmSE4CalmE3E6SE7E9E7E7E9E9E4E5E3E3SE5E4SE4E6
1 day agoS34S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmNE3E5E7E9E11E13E11E11E5CalmSE5SE5SE6
2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmSW5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3NW3E4E4E9E12E10SE13E12E10SE8SE7SE6S5S3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.