Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 9:09PM Monday June 18, 2018 1:07 PM EDT (17:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:19AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 1009 Am Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots until early morning becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ463 Expires:201806182015;;727819 FZUS63 KDTX 181409 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1009 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure will strengthen to 29.40 inches today over Quebec province. The low pressure system will drag a cold front southward through the central Great Lakes today and tonight. The frontal boundary will eventually stall over the Ohio Valley while surface high pressure, at 30.00 inches, builds into the northern Great Lakes Tuesday. LHZ462>464-182015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 181142
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
742 am edt Mon jun 18 2018

Aviation
Weakening shower activity is settling into the saginaw bay region
this morning outpacing greater synoptic scale frontal support. The
midlevel extension of the cold front will arrive over the northern
taf sites during the afternoon and support a diurnal redevelopment
of showers and thunderstorms. Have maintained included some
thunderstorm mention from north to south. Gusty southwest winds of
15 to 25 knots will occur ahead of the approaching cold front.

Thunderstorm activity will end this evening giving way to MVFR
boundary layer cloud tonight.

For dtw... Southwest winds today of 20 to 25 knots. Expecting a
scattered coverage of thunderstorms today between 23z and 00z this
evening. Lingering showers will be possible overnight along with
MVFR cloud.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* moderate for ceilings AOB 5000 feet after 18z today.

* low to moderate for thunderstorms after 23z Monday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 344 am edt Mon jun 18 2018
discussion...

southern mi remains under the influence of a strong ridge of high
pressure in which 500mb heights over the region will flirt with
590dm. Considering temperatures Sunday made it into the mid 90s
across all of SE mi, and overnight lows are in the low 80s upper 70s
as of 630z, we should have no problem reaching into the low 90s once
again today. Heat indices should be able to reach near 100 again
south of m59, with locations north around the mid 90s. For these
reasons the heat advisory remains in effect through this afternoon
for counties along and south of i69. A cold front currently sagging
across northern lower with convective system passing over lake mi
will spread clouds across mid mi which will keep their temps a
little lower today.

This cold front will present the next forecast issue which will be
precip convective potential. Current convective activity will track
eastward possibly clipping the saginaw valley through the morning
hours. Most hires shows the outflow from this system surging
southward through SE mi through the morning. Signals aren't very
strong for precipitation generation as the boundary races south of
the forcing and front thus will hold with a chance slight chance pop
across the north with the thinking we'll have some grungy scattered
showers and maybe a rumble of thunder. The afternoon get a little
trickier as the surface cold front then advances southward. Model
consensus shows surfaced based CAPE growing to over 2k j kg south of
the cold front but shear will be marginal at only 20-30 knots. Mid
level lapse rates will be even less conducive for storms with values
around 5-6 c km. Will also have to watch the evolution of the cloud
field through the early afternoon to see if the airmass will be
primed for any storm development. Best chance of storms will be
across the south where the front won't arrive til close to 00z.

Model output and local probabilistic guidance seem to paint a decent
picture of pop trends through the day and overnight, not supporting
a widespread convective scenario, yet still increasing coverage and
intensity later in the day. Probabilistic guidance shows a high
likelihood of at least light accumulations across all of SE mi today
through tonight, but little more than a 30 percent shot at
accumulations for any one hour period. With all this in mind will
hold with chance to low likely pops. Severe storms are not expected
but a few isolated storms with strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out
later in the day.

Weather quiets down on Tuesday with the front now draped just south
of the state. A low pop will remain across the far south as the
proximity to the front may allow a few showers storms to track into
the area. Northeast flow will bring a much cooler airmass into the
area with highs possibly only reaching the upper 70s. Showers look
to spread back northward overnight into Wednesday as a shortwave
ripples along the front lifting it back northward. This would likely
be elevated activity as the wave rides over the stable and dry
boundary layer with continued NE flow.

High pressure builds in from the north Wednesday night into Friday
before the next mid level trough slowly drift across lower mi.

Currently both the GFS and euro paint a wet picture for late Friday
into Sunday as the low is slow to exit the area.

Marine...

moderate southwesterly flow will continue through much of today with
gusts limited to less than 20 knots as a hot and stable airmass
lingers over the water. A cold front will begin to sag south across
the region today with showers and thunderstorms accompanying the
frontal passage. Onshore flow of up to 15 knots will persist on
Tuesday before winds calm down for the middle of the week.

Hydrology...

showers and thunderstorms will accompany a frontal passage today and
tonight. A quarter to one half of an inch of rain is possible for
most areas. Locally higher amounts will exist with any slow moving
thunderstorms.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Heat advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for miz060>063-068>070-
075-076-082-083.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Cb
hydrology... .Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 22 mi68 min SSW 1.9 G 1.9 69°F 59°F1 ft1012.6 hPa (+0.3)
PSCM4 47 mi68 min WNW 6 G 12 84°F 1012.5 hPa (+0.0)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi50 min W 8.9 G 13 80°F 1011.9 hPa70°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi50 min W 9.9 G 18 89°F 1012.7 hPa72°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi50 min 90°F 1012.6 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi77 minW 10 G 14 mi79°F71°F77%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5SE4E5SW10
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1 day ago3Calm3E7SE6SE5SE6SE4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmSW74SW555W4N5
2 days agoE4CalmCalmE5E93SE5SE5SE3SE3CalmCalmSW4CalmSE4SE4CalmCalmS7S5E8SE8S55

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.