Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 6:28PM Monday October 23, 2017 8:10 PM EDT (00:10 UTC) Moonrise 10:22AMMoonset 8:13PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 346 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.gale warning in effect from 8 pm edt this evening through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales becoming south to 30 knots with gusts to 45 knot gales in the late evening and overnight. Rain. Waves 8 to 12 feet building to 10 to 14 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Tuesday..South winds to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knot gales. A chance of showers in the morning...then showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Tuesday night..South winds to 30 knots becoming southwest 20 to 25 knots in the late evening and overnight. Gusts to 40 knot gales. Showers likely early in the evening...then a chance of showers late in the evening. Rain showers likely after midnight. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. Gusts to 30 knots. Showers likely until late afternoon...then a chance of showers late in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers early in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the morning...then increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots late in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots. A chance of showers until early morning. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers early in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning.
LHZ463 Expires:201710240800;;301195 FZUS63 KDTX 231948 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 346 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure will deepen to 29.50 inches as it lifts into southern Michigan this evening. The low is then forecast to rapidly deepen to 29.10 inches as lifts into the straits region late tonight. There will then be a slow but steady weakening of the low across the northern Great Lakes on Tuesday before it lifts north of the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. LHZ462>464-240800-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 232316
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
716 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017

Aviation
Deep surface low pressure will track north across southern lower
michigan late this evening. The leading surface front is still
lingering near mbs and will slowly crawl east allowing for winds to
flip to the northwest. Elsewhere, brisk southerlies will be present
for a few hours until quickly flipping to westerly as the surface
cold front sweeps east across the terminal space. Rainfall will
continue to be rather steady at mbs this evening - with much less
coverage at the other sites. Ceilings will be in the low MVFR
category most of the forecast period. Showers will continue to
occupy the airspace on Tuesday as the upper-level circulation pivots
across the southern great lakes region.

For dtw... Ceilings will remain below 5kft through the forecast
period with occasional bouts with rain showers. Gusty southerly
winds will quickly veer to west-southwest around midnight. Gusts
near 30kts with an isolated peak wind approaching 40kt associated
with the frontal passage are possible. Winds will then slowly back
and relax slightly toward daybreak.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings at or below 5 kft through the period.

Prev discussion
Issued at 337 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017
discussion...

dynamic mid level circulation and associated deepening surface
reflection rapidly advancing northeast toward the area this
afternoon. This process will be accompanied by a substantial deep
column mass adjustment, as the height fall gradient of a trailing
mid level wave and accompanying upper jet core interact with the
inbound system. The subsequent substantial height falls and
corresponding surface cyclogenesis will leave a deep closed system
parked over far northern lower mi by tonight. Upstream observational
trends and recent model guidance continue to depict a surface low
track roughly from northeast indiana through lansing and to near
saginaw bay through the evening. Window of stronger ascent contained
within the eastern flank of this passing system will provide the
greatest opportunity for meaningful rainfall most locations going
forward from mid afternoon through the evening hours. A greater
convective element noted across the ohio valley will undercut some
of the moisture quality, but rainfall amounts into the half inch
range remain attainable given the underlying forcing. Current
trajectory does maintain an opportunity for the well-defined mid
level fgen and deformation axis to pivot into the northern saginaw
valley, with residence time then ultimately dictating rainfall
amounts. Some contraction in scale of the deepest ascent as upper
jet coupling briefly drives a greater fgen response could then
potentially yield a several hour period of heavier rainfall over
this corridor. Therefore, electing to hold tight with the flood
watch over midland and bay counties until a more definitive signal
emerges on this possibility.

Trailing cold front anchored along the elongating height fall shear
axis lifts through early tonight 02z-06z . Period of stronger dcva
within the emerging cold air advection will sustain the potential
for shower production through this time, particularly with westward
extent. Advent of isentropic descent coincident with a tightening
gradient and corresponding uptick in wind magnitude through the 850-
925 mb layer will allow for gusty conditions immediately behind the
cold frontal passage. Brief duration of gusts into the 35 to 40 mph
range not out of the question, limited mainly by modest mixed layer
depth.

Deep longwave troughing will then govern conditions through the
Tuesday-Wednesday periods, anchored by the consolidation of the two
separate negative height anomalies over the next 36 hours. A
secondary period of cold air advection on Tuesday as upper heights
continue to fall. This will lower 850 mb temperatures to near zero
by afternoon. This process into a background of sustained cold moist
cyclonic flow will maintain the chance of rain. A few instances of
graupel a possibility given the steep low level lapse rates and
suppressed freezing levels. Brisk conditions expected with southwest
winds turning quite gusty as late day diurnal processes augment a
tight pressure gradient. High confidence exists for gusts to 30 mph,
with moderate potential for a period of gusts over 35 mph from mid
afternoon into the evening. Highs low-mid 50s.

Growing overlake convective depth as instability increases within
this colder air mass will initiate a period of greater downstream
moisture flux off lake michigan under northwest to westerly flow
Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will sustain a substantial low
stratus canopy, while maintaining the chance of rain. Greatest shot
for rain may center on Tuesday night, with general model consensus
depicting a deeper plume of moisture tied to a weak trough or
secondary frontal passage. Coldest day of the fall season thus far
expected on Wednesday, with limited diurnal recovery holding highs
largely in the 40s.

Transient upper level ridging will build into the region on Thursday
bringing dry conditions as highs increase to the upper 50s.

Southwesterly flow will then increase late Thursday into Friday
ahead of the next low pressure system organizing over the northern
plains. As the low tracks through the northern great lakes, a cold
front will push through the region with a period of showers
accompanying the frontal passage. The 12z GFS and canadian solutions
continue to advertise an earlier frontal passage late Friday while
the 12z euro favors a later frontal passage on Saturday. The main
difference between these solutions is the location of an amplifying
upper level trough and associated jet streak with the euro keeping
the trough axis just west of the region on Saturday. Regardless,
upper level troughing looks to build into the region for the
remainder of the weekend as highs fall into the upper 40s with the
first shot at widespread low temperatures below freezing on Sunday
morning.

Marine...

gales expected across lake huron tonight through Tuesday night, and
lake st. Clair and the western shores of lake erie late Tuesday
through Tuesday night...

a strong low pressure system will continue to move north into lower
michigan through this evening, before rapidly deepening tonight as
it lifts further northward and stalls near the straits by early
Tuesday morning. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement that
this area of low pressure will deepen further to around 980 hpa as
it lingers near the straits through Tuesday night, before exiting to
the northeast towards hudson bay by Wednesday. The strong low
pressure system will bring gale-force winds to the local waters,
especially Tuesday into Tuesday night as cold air wrapping around
the system enhances instability over the lakes, when probabilistic
guidance continues showing increasing confidence in 40-45 knot
gusts. Wind direction will initially be southeast through this
evening, before becoming south southwest Tuesday into Wednesday.

Wave heights will peak around 10-15 feet in the open lake huron
waters, with waves of 3-8 feet in saginaw bay and the nearshore
waters of the thumb, and 2-4 feet across lake st. Clair and western
lake erie. Winds and waves will rapidly begin to diminish starting
Wednesday as the low pressure system exits weakens and brief high
pressure builds into the region.

Hydrology...

strong low pressure system will move just to the north and west of
southeast michigan through tonight, and stall near the straits
through Tuesday before exiting to the northeast Wednesday. Model
guidance continues to show the heaviest rainfall axis being located
primarily west of the us 23 i-75 corridor. The tri-cities area still
looks to see the highest rainfall totals, generally 1-2 inches
through Tuesday morning, with an inch or less across the rest of
southeast michigan. This rainfall will fall over a prolonged period
of time, and combined with the progressive nature of the low
pressure system, no major areal flooding concerns are anticipated.

Regardless, a flood watch remains in effect for midland and bay
counties through tonight, for localized higher potential rainfall
totals.

Behind the departing low pressure system, rising river levels may
result in minor river flooding in the tri-cities area (particularly
the saginaw river at saginaw).

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Flood watch through Tuesday morning for miz047-048.

Lake huron... Gale warning until 8 am edt Wednesday for lhz362-363-462>464.

Gale warning until 10 pm edt Tuesday for lhz441>443.

Gale warning from 1 am to 8 pm edt Tuesday for lhz361.

Gale warning from 2 am to 10 pm edt Tuesday for lhz421-422.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Tuesday for lcz460.

Gale warning from 2 pm Tuesday to 4 am edt Wednesday for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Tuesday for lez444.

Gale warning from 2 pm Tuesday to 4 am edt Wednesday for lez444.

Aviation... ..Mann
discussion... Mr jd
marine... ... .Irl
hydrology... .Irl
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 22 mi71 min SE 21 G 27 62°F 61°F1000.3 hPa (-4.9)
PSCM4 47 mi71 min SE 20 G 24 60°F 999.7 hPa (-5.0)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi41 min SE 19 G 22 59°F 998.1 hPa59°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi41 min SSE 19 G 29 63°F 998.1 hPa60°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi41 min 63°F 998.2 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi80 minSE 15 G 24 mi61°F59°F93%999 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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S8S7664S53S4CalmSE4CalmSE34S4S8SE7SE10SE11SE16
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1 day agoS6S7S6S564544SE5S5S5SE56S8S8S7
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2 days agoS635SW5SW5SW5S54444SW553Calm55S76S8SE8SE4S6S8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.