Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 5:23PM Tuesday January 22, 2019 7:04 AM EST (12:04 UTC) Moonrise 7:27PMMoonset 9:04AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Expires:201901222130;;737406 Fzus63 Kdtx 220827 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 327 Am Est Tue Jan 22 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Low pressure, 29.70 inches, will lift from the southern plains this morning to northern illinois by Wednesday morning, deepening to 29.60 inches. The low will traverse lake huron Wednesday afternoon, deepening to 29.30 inches as it lifts northeast of georgian bay Wednesday night. An arctic cold front will advance across the region late Thursday into Thursday night. Strong high pressure will then build to the west of the region on Friday, while a surface trough holds across the great lakes region. Lhz363-462>464-222130- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 327 am est Tue jan 22 2019
.gale warning in effect from 10 am est this morning through this evening...
Today..South winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 30 knots. Gusts to 35 knot gales. A chance of snow late in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 7 feet building to 10 to 14 feet in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Tonight..South winds to 30 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales decreasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Snow. A chance of sleet after midnight. Rain after midnight. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Rain with snow likely in the morning...then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain in the evening. A chance of freezing rain late in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales. A chance of until late afternoon. Heavy freezing spray early in the evening. A chance of until late afternoon. A chance of snow. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 9 feet late in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. Heavy freezing spray early in the morning. A chance of snow early in the morning. A chance of snow until early morning. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of snow early in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
LHZ463


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 221057
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
557 am est Tue jan 22 2019

Aviation
South-southeast winds will increase through the morning as the
gradient increases, with a subtle deepening mixed layer supportive
of wind gusts a little over 20 knots. There will be a strong
transport of a warm moist airmass later this afternoon into tonight
preceding an approaching low pressure system. The degree of warm
air advection will support a mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow.

As for ptk and fnt, freezing rain, sleet and some snow will be the
dominate precip type from roughly 22-01z into the overnight. Low
level warming will then transition the precip over toward all rain
approaching daybreak wed. As for mbs, snow and sleet will be the
dominate precip type; possibly beginning as early as 21z and
persisting through most of the night. Several inches (3 to 6) of wet
snow are possible at mbs. In addition to the precipitation, the
moisture advection will also result in a steady lowering of ceilings
heights through the night.

For dtw... The onset of precipitation will be a little later at metro
in comparison to locations farther north as the residual dry arctic
air will take a little longer to dislodge. By the time the better
moisture arrives (02-03z) the elevated warm layer should be deep
enough to start precip off as freezing rain, possibly with some
sleet. There will be a steady rise in sfc temps reaching at or above
freezing between 04z and 07z. Strong winds (above 40 knots) just off
the shallow stable sfc layer will lead to low level wind shear
conditions during the evening.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* moderate in precip type as freezing rain this evening. High in
precip type as all rain overnight tonight through Wednesday
morning.

* high for ceilings below 5,000 tonight and Wednesday morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 302 am est Tue jan 22 2019
discussion...

the arctic high ridge held on through the evening across southeast
michigan, allowing temperatures to dip below zero across many
locations once again. The warm start to january is quickly being
erased, and based on the expected much below normal temperatures for
the weekend, it is apparent the month of january will end up being
normal, if not below normal.

Positive tilted longwave trough tracking through the rockies this
morning, with good deal of upper level energy PV rounding the base of
the trough across the northern mexican border. The consolidated
upper level PV center to eject and track into the central plains late
today, and through northern illinois tomorrow morning and into
northern lower michigan Wednesday afternoon.

Waves of isentropic ascent today into tonight over southeast
michigan, with good moisture advection, as 5 g kg of specific
humidity in the 850-700 mb layer arrives by midnight. 00z NAM has
trended colder flatter with wave, with areas north of i-69 basically
staying frozen below freezing through the night, with really a
snow sleet debate as marginal warm layer sneaks in. The issue is the
850 mb front is lit up along the i-69 corridor as the nose of the 70+
knot translates northeast, so may not be a lot of QPF north of there
if this solution verifies. Also, if the lift is intense enough along
the i-69 corridor, could be looking at precipitation staying mostly
snow sleet for most of the evening night. Not an easy forecast, as
regional gem remains stronger with the surface low (995 mb) low level
circulation tracking farther north through central lake michigan,
which allows the 4 c warm layer at 925 mb to reach saginaw bay late
Wednesday morning. Fv3-gfs is similar to regional gem. Even with the
slower deeper solution, should be good evaporative cooling during the
onset this evening into tonight before the good warm surge arrives
Wednesday morning. All locations in southeast michigan should start
out as snow wintry mix before the south to north transition occurs to
rain, but again, north of i-69 there remains a question if a
complete changeover to rain will even occur by 12z Wednesday. After
looking at the latest rap and euro as well, planning on going with
winter weather advisory for areas along and north of i-69 for 1-5
inches of snow, higher amounts likely midland bay huron counties, but
amount of sleet mixing in could be a factor. South of i-69, favor
little in the way of snow (less than 1 inch), with more of a
sleet freezing rain mix changing to all rain around or just after
midnight. With the frozen ground and what appears to be at least a
couple hours of freezing rain, have elected to issue winter weather
advisory for freezing rain this evening, with ice accumulations of a
tenth or slightly higher along the higher terrain of
lenawee washtenaw livingston oakland, with just a glaze of ice for
wayne monroe macomb counties.

Mid level dry slot advancing over southeast michigan during
Wednesday will shut off the rain, as colder snow deformation looks
to be just north of tri-cities region. Still may be enough low level
moisture to support drizzle as temps rise to around 40 degrees for
highs.

Strong cold advection in the evening as winds shift to the
west northwest, and 850 mb temps lower to the negative lower teens
toward midnight. With any lingering moisture on roads, icy spots
could develop.

Per 00z euro... Another brutal shot of cold air looks to be arriving
to close out the work week, as deep cold upper level low (490 dam or
lower at 500 mb) moves over ontario. 850 mb temps plummeting into the
mid negative 20s again on Friday over southeast michigan, with
enough wind to support potential wind chills of -15 f or colder once
again. Bitter cold to hang around for the weekend, with still a few
opportunities for snow into early new week.

Marine...

low pressure will lift from the southern plains to northern
illinois by Wednesday morning. The low will then traverse central
lower michigan during the day Wednesday. There will be a
strengthening southerly gradient ahead of this low pressure system.

The winds will actually increase to gale force by late morning and
will persist into early this evening. While probabilities remain
high that gusts will reach 35 knot gales, the probability for gusts
to 40 knots gales is low. The winds will gradually decrease tonight
due both to a subtle weakening of the gradient and low level
warming, thus reducing over-lake mixing depths. Winds will veer to
the west-northwest late Wednesday into Wed night as the surface low
departs east of lake huron.

Another intrusion of arctic air is forecast to overspread the great
lakes thurs night into Friday. This will bring another round of
gusty winds (possibly gale force) and high probabilities of heavy
freezing spray.

Hydrology...

there will be an influx of relatively high moisture preceding a low
pressure system that will traverse lower michigan on Wednesday
afternoon. The initial surge of moisture will result in a mix of
snow, sleet and freezing rain across the area late this
afternoon evening before strong warm air advection transitions the
precip over to rain tues night Wed morning. The rain will come to an
end Wednesday afternoon. There is a high probability that total
liquid equivalent precipitation totals will range from a half inch
to three quarters of an inch across the area. Probabilities for
precip totals approaching an inch drop off dramatically. If total
precip does approach an inch, there may be some localized flooding
concerns in urban detroit where warming temps will also result in
some snow melt.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory from 6 pm to 10 pm est this evening for
miz060>062.

Winter weather advisory from 2 am to 5 am est Wednesday for
miz060>062.

Winter weather advisory from 7 pm to 10 pm est this evening for
miz063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Winter weather advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 10 pm est this
evening for miz047>049-053>055.

Winter weather advisory from 2 am to 8 am est Wednesday for
miz047>049-053>055.

Lake huron... Gale warning from 10 am this morning to 10 pm est this evening for
lhz361>363-441>443-462>464.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Sc
hydrology... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSCM4 47 mi65 min 11°F 1033.9 hPa (-1.0)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi35 min S 13 G 16 10°F 33°F1032.1 hPa2°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi35 min S 9.9 G 13 11°F 1032.4 hPa4°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi35 min 12°F 1032.5 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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N8
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N8

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi74 minVar 6 mi9°F0°F66%1034.6 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10
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NW12NW9W9W9W7SW5SW6SW7SW7SW7SW7SW7SW3SW4SW4SW4546S7
1 day agoN26
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2 days agoNE19NE19NE20NE19NE19NE14NE17NE17NE18NE20NE21NE20
G26
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N20N25
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G36
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G32

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.