Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 8:20PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 2:02 PM EDT (18:02 UTC) Moonrise 2:39PMMoonset 3:34AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 955 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
Rest of today..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely late in the morning...then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers early in the evening. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the south after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north late in the morning...then becoming light and variable late in the evening. A chance of showers early in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming north 5 to 10 knots until early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming light and variable early in the evening becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet until early morning.
LHZ463 Expires:201804252000;;478300 FZUS63 KDTX 251402 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 954 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.00 inches, will settle over the area and hold through Thursday. The next cold front is scheduled to arrive Thursday night and Friday with low pressure averaging 29.80 inches. Building high pressure behind the front will support moderate northwest flow on Saturday, diminishing for Sunday. LHZ462>464-252000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 251712
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
112 pm edt Wed apr 25 2018

Aviation
Low pressure will track down the axis of lake huron through the
afternoon which will keep MVFR CIGS around into the evening.

Meanwhile, dry air over the western side of the state will be
encroaching through that time helping to scatter out the clouds from
west to east. The terminals look to fall near the western edge of
the thicker clouds which could lead to brief fluctuations intoVFR
over the course of the late afternoon. Skies will clear and winds
will become light tonight as high pressure builds into the region.

Still some signals that a brief period of shallow MVFR could develop
as nocturnal min temps are reached toward morning.

For dtw... Wind direction stays consistent from the nnw in the 10 to
15 knot range and likely requires NE traffic flow operations. Winds
will drop off while becoming more westerly around midnight allowing
more favorable SW flow operations.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less into this evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at 341 am edt Wed apr 25 2018
discussion...

cold front associated with the wave digging through the great lakes
is progressing south this morning and will clear through michigan
this morning. The inverted surface trough sending moisture northward
that is aiding showers and some patchy fog early this morning will be
shunted east by this front. Throughout today the upper level low
across the central appalachians will pivot northward and begin to get
absorbed by the trough currently tracking through the great lakes.

This consolidation will result in the wave slowing down slightly over
the central great lakes as it pivots over to the eastern great lakes
tonight and then well east by tomorrow. Anticipate that scattered
showers will come to an end for much of the area with clearing
conditions by late morning with incoming subsidence and dry air.

Slowing of the wave will allow the trailing PV to graze eastern
michigan. Combine that with the northerly flow and moisture boost off
of lake huron and eastern portions of the thumb will some extended
rain chances through afternoon. There will be gusty winds behind the
front as well with gusts up to 30 mph possible throughout the
afternoon.

Cold pool with temperatures at 850mb around 0c will bring
temperatures down a little further today into the low to mid 50s for
the inland areas. Temperatures in the 40s across portions of the
thumb where northerly flow off of lake huron will keep things
cooler. Clearing conditions overnight will allow for good
radiational cooling to occur with temperatures around freezing in
the low to mid 30s.

Shortwave ridge will build over michigan on Thursday and bring a
brief break from precipitation. Plenty of sunshine will allow
temperatures to rebound back into the lower 60s and upper 50s. Quick
return to wet conditions with another upper trough digging through
the great lakes on Friday. Cold front will accompany this system and
result in increased rain chances for Friday morning and afternoon
along the front. Vorticity MAX and upper jet will rotate through the
base of the trough keeping rain chances going Friday evening into
Saturday. The quality of moisture available to this system is not
great. Expecting QPF amounts around a tenth of an inch, which will
be more tied to the vorticity MAX than along the cold front. Cold
pool associated with this trough and persistent northwest flow will
result moderating high temperatures in low to mid 50s through the
weekend.

Upper ridge and surface high building in on Sunday will dominate the
weather into early next week. Full insolation with warm southerly
flow will allow temperatures to increase into the 60s by Monday and
70s by Tuesday. Some locations across the far lower michigan may
even reach 80 degrees on Wednesday.

Marine...

a cold front that moved through earlier in the night left behind
moderate north wind over marine areas that will last through today.

The wind will have minimal impact on the smaller bodies of lake st
clair and western lake erie. However, small craft advisories remain
in effect for saginaw bay and southern lake huron as peak gusts top
out near 25 knots. The long north fetch will also build waves in
excess of 4 feet over outer saginaw bay and southern lake huron.

Both wind and waves diminish tonight as high pressure builds
overhead and holds through Thursday. The next front reaches northern
lake huron Thursday night and exits western lake erie by Friday
afternoon with a similar post frontal wind field. A larger area of
low pressure is projected to closely trail the front and reinforce
colder north wind and unsettled conditions through the weekend.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-
441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dk
discussion... Aa
marine... ... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSCM4 47 mi62 min N 18 G 20 40°F 1014.6 hPa (+0.4)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi44 min NNW 20 G 23 38°F 1013.9 hPa37°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi44 min NNE 19 G 22 40°F 1013.3 hPa38°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi44 min 43°F 1013.3 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi72 minNNW 10 mi38°F37°F100%1015 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7CalmSE5E3SE5E9E6SE8SE6E5CalmCalmN3N6NW8NW9NW11NW12NW13
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1 day agoE4E5E3E3SE5E4SE4E6SE5SE6S3Calm4SE3CalmCalmSE4CalmSE3SE3SE7E4CalmSE12
2 days agoE13E11E11E5CalmSE5SE5SE6SE5SE4SE3SE3CalmCalmSE4CalmE3E6SE7E9E7E7E9E9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.