Sunday, May19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:46PM Sunday May 19, 2019 6:19 AM EDT (10:19 UTC) Moonrise 8:48PMMoonset 5:44AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 356 Am Edt Sun May 19 2019
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots until early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ463 Expires:201905192015;;102963 FZUS63 KDTX 190756 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 356 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure averaging 29.40 inches will move over southern WI later today and eventually through northern Lower Michigan by Monday morning bringing a period of unsettled weather. This system will bring southerly wind gusts to around 20 knots and chances for thunderstorms. As this low travels into Quebec, a high pressure averaging 30.20 inches will begin to build over the Great Lakes late Monday into Tuesday. LHZ463-464-192015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 190744
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
344 am edt Sun may 19 2019

Discussion
Warm front will lift through the forecast area this morning as
surface low pressure, driven by strong negative tilt upper trough,
lifts into the upper midwest. This will bring a steady influx of
higher theta-e air into the area and allow for increasing instability
by later this morning into early afternoon (it should not be lost in
the fray that detroit stands a decent shot at reach 80 degrees for
the first time this spring). However, the forecast for severe
thunderstorms remains the main question today and is complicated
mainly by the timing of early arriving initial convection in advance
of pre-frontal trough (and how long this early activity persists
into the afternoon).

Hires model consensus early this morning suggests coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will be rather expansive by midday as a
majority of this activity begins to spread into the forecast area.

An earlier arrival looks possible over the saginaw valley and
perhaps areas west of us-23 or so as theta-e ridge axis initially
surges up through western lower michigan. So far, regional radar
loop supports this general idea.

This will limit the period for destabilization with sbcapes perhaps
reaching 1500 j kg (mlcapes perhaps pushing 1000 j kg) in some
locations by the time this activity overspreads the area. This will
limit severe potential to some extent despite a very strong wind
profile in place over the area with deep layer shear in excess of 50
knots. The initial push through the northwest forecast area suggests
that east-southeast areas may destabilize a bit more into the early
afternoon and allow for a better chance strong severe storms as
initial convection lifts through area in the early mid afternoon.

This would theoretically include a corridor from the ohio michigan
state line through metro detroit on into the thumb. Very tough call
though for sure.

Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms are still
expected late in the day, mainly by evening, as the low pressure
lifts into northern lower michigan and pushes a cold front east to
northeast through the area. Wind field remains very strong and will
support strong wind gusts with any organized convection. This period
seems to have the least confidence as the degree of boundary layer
recovery in the wake of afternoon activity is very uncertain. Fwiw,
the last few hrrr runs early this morning suggest very little
recovery over the area with activity along the cold front being fed
by a very thin band of instability advecting into lower michigan on
ssw flow immediately in advance of the front itself.

A return to cooler weather is expected for a few days early next
week as canadian high pressure builds into the great lakes in the
wake of this passing low pressure system. Highs will be limited to
the 50s Monday and 60s Tuesday. There is even some potential for
frost early Tuesday morning as conditions will be dry and generally
clear by that point of the forecast.

Upper ridging builds back into the area from mid to late next week
bring a moderation in temperatures (back near 80 by Thursday Friday).

Periodic scattered widely scattered showers storms will be possible
as shortwave race through strong westerlies on the periphery of the
upper ridge. The first of these episodes will occur late Tuesday
night into Wednesday as increased southerly flow in advance of an
strong system occluding over the plains overrides pushes warm front
back north into the area.

Marine
A low pressure will be deepening as it moves into the western great
lakes this afternoon and drive draw a warm front northward into
southern lake huron. This will allow for easterly wind gusts of
around 20 kts north of this front across northern portions of lake
huron. To the south of this warm front will be gusty southerly winds
of around 25-30 kts. The stability over water will limit gust
potential to a degree, but small craft advisories will be in effect
for these zones this afternoon and evening for the wind potential
along the shorelines of saginaw bay, thumb region, lakes st. Clair
and western erie. Lingering warm front will also result in
considerable marine fog. The low pressure system will drive a cold
front through the region tonight. Ahead of the front will be rain
and thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening. Post cold front
winds will bring gusty w-sw winds tonight into Monday, which may
result in more small craft conditions, particularly across saginaw
bay.

Hydrology
A few rounds of rain and thunderstorms expected through tonight.

Rainfall amounts will be highly variable due to the convective
nature of precipitation as activity moves through michigan.

Prolonged heavy rainfall is not expected given a fast storm motion.

However, pwat values are around 1.50 inches, which will allow for
brief heavy rainfall. So any flooding potential will limited to the
typical prone areas if these areas are impacted by multiple rounds
of heavy rainfall. Basin average rainfall amounts will range between
a quarter inch to three quarters of an inch.

There will be some flooding concerns along lake st. Clair shorelines
this afternoon into tonight as winds strengthen out of the south.

Wind direction will drive waters northward with the already high
lake levels to result in lakeshore flooding concerns from lake st.

Clair metropark north to anchor bay and across to harsens island.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1204 am edt Sun may 19 2019
aviation...

stable warm sector environment will remain in place overnight,
ensuring quietVFR conditions with plenty of clear sky across the
lowest 5-7k ft. There does remain a low probability for a few
showers isolated thunderstorm to lift near mbs tonight as a warm
front settles across this corridor. Confidence in occurrence still
too low to highlight at this time. Strengthening southerly winds
throughout Sunday, turning gusty by midday. Potential for gusts to
reach 30 knots at times late in the day. Thunderstorm potential on
Sunday carries considerable uncertainty yet in terms of possible
coverage and timing. Plausible scenario exists for a lead area of
convection to lift into the region by late morning early afternoon,
with a secondary window focused on a cold frontal passage during the
evening 22z-02z . Greater potential for strong to severe storms
will exist with any evening development.

For dtw... Marginal conditions for possible low level wind shear in
strengthening southerly winds overnight. Potential for thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon and evening, with exact timing still quite
uncertain.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings at or below 5000 ft through Sunday morning.

Moderate Sunday afternoon and evening.

* moderate in thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 am edt
Monday for miz063-070.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt this
evening for lhz421-422-441>443.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory from noon today to 10 pm edt this evening for
lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory from noon today to 10 pm edt this evening for
lez444.

Discussion... Dg
marine... ... .Aa
hydrology... .Aa
aviation... ..Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 22 mi80 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 45°F 38°F1 ft1009.6 hPa (-0.4)
PSCM4 47 mi20 min 49°F 1009.1 hPa (-1.1)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi32 min ESE 6 G 7 44°F 52°F1009.4 hPa43°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi32 min SSW 7 G 11 56°F 1008.9 hPa51°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi32 min 53°F 1008.9 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi29 minESE 6 mi48°F45°F89%1009 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE6E8E9E11E12E14SE12E11SE11E11E8E6E8E8SE10SE9SE4CalmE5E7E5E4E6
1 day agoN5N8N6NW8NW11NW10NW8N8N4NE7N5NE6NE7E6NE6NE9NE5E4NE4NE53E3SW3Calm
2 days agoSW3Calm3E6SE11E12SE15SE13SE15E10SW9
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6W8W7NW11
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N3NW53N5NW3N3CalmN7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.