Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 6:02PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 4:12 PM EST (21:12 UTC) Moonrise 7:32PMMoonset 8:11AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Expires:201902210915;;246525 Fzus63 Kdtx 202044 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 344 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Surface low pressure at 29.60 inches will continue to lift into western quebec by Thursday morning. A ridge of surface high pressure...30.40 inches...then builds into the great lakes for Friday. Early indications suggest powerful winter storm of 28.90 inches lifting through northern lower michigan on Sunday. Lhz363-462>464-210915- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 344 pm est Wed feb 20 2019
Tonight..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots late in the evening...then becoming southwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots after midnight. Rain... Snow...freezing rain and sleet early in the evening...then a chance of freezing rain late in the evening. A chance of rain and snow in the late evening and early morning. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the evening. A chance of snow. A chance of rain late in the morning. Rain and snow late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming west to 30 knots with gusts to 45 knot gales. Rain early in the morning. Snow likely. Rain likely until early morning. Waves 6 to 9 feet building to 10 to 14 feet until early morning. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Monday..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 45 knot gales becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Waves 10 to 14 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LHZ463


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 202021
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
321 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Discussion
Shower activity is expected to increase during the remainder of the
afternoon and persist into early mid evening as occluded frontal
boundary pivots northeast through the region around low pressure
center positioned over the upper mississippi river valley. With
temperatures still at or below freezing in most locations through
the mid late afternoon hours, still foresee some chance of minor
icing across the area in around the evening commute.

This will be especially true from around the m-59 corridor north
where precipitation coverage will be greatest and late day
temperatures the coldest. Will hold on to the winter weather
advisory to cover the evening commute period as the loss of daytime
solar insolation will coincide with this renewed push of shower
activity and favor some ice accumulation on untreated surfaces.

Precipitation will come to an end quickly during the evening as a
mid level dry slot works through the area in wake of passing front.

Temperatures will actually edge up into the middle 30s during the
last half of the evening before dropping back off into the mid upper
20s overnight as the aforementioned low tracks through the northern
great lakes and brings colder air back into the region on gusty west
winds.

The remainder of the week will be rather quiet as high pressure
builds into the region. Remaining gusty winds Thursday morning will
ease during the day as this high approaches with light winds under
the center of this system on Friday. Highs both days will range in
the 30s with no notable weather of which to speak.

Prevailing regime over north america will remain unchanged through
the weekend. The next round of energy is already digging
aggressively south. The attendant jet streak is considerably
stronger than what was observed with current wave lifting through
southeast michigan at the same point in its development sequence,
and there is strong consensus among the nwp that it will contract in
scale and considerably strengthen as it lifts north along roughly
the same track on Saturday night through Sunday. On the front end,
nothing more than rain showers with some embedded thunder followed
by another aggressive dry slot intrusion. However, the modeled
strength of the cyclone, the strength of the trailing arctic high
sliding south along the lee of the rockies, and expectation for at
least moderate cold advection, lends itself toward wind on the upper
end of climatology developing on Sunday. Inherited blended grids
featuring sustained winds around 30 mph with gusts to 45 to 50 mph
are a decent start given the 96 hour lead time. No changes needed.

Marine
An area of low pressure over the western great lakes will track
northeast through the straits tonight. Gusty easterly flow will veer
through southeast this evening, becoming strong out of the west
behind a passing front. These westerly gusts will likely reach 30
knots for a period late tonight into Thursday. This is especially
true across northern lake huron where funneling typically occurs
with westerly flow and may result in some brief gust to gales. High
pressure will build across the region Thursday night through Friday
night bringing more favorable marine conditions. The next strong low
pressure system is forecast to lift through the region for the
second half of the weekend presenting a risk for high end gales,
with lower end gales potentially lingering into Monday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1217 pm est Wed feb 20 2019
aviation...

precipitation has been slow to transpire through the late morning
hours as dry easterly flow has been too much to over come.

Temperature profile is becoming more favorable for fzdz as low level
moisture bleeds slowly northward and mid levels dry out but
observations have been patchy at best over the last couple hours.

Will keep with that thought and just go with a tempo for fzdz for a
couple hours until deeper moisture arrives around 20-21z. By then
temperatures are expected to warm enough to change ptype to all rain
with the exception being mbs which make keep a rain snow mix. Mainly
ifr CIGS through the overnight with a period of lifr possible with
the heavier showers this evening. Winds will veer from the east to
southeast this afternoon before flipping to westerly behind a
passing cold front later this evening. Westerly wind gusts may reach
25 to 30 knots for a period tonight immediately behind the cold
front and then subside through the morning hours.

For dtw... Remains a chance for some freezing drizzle over the next
few hours but confidence is decreasing due to the amount of dry air
still present. Precipitation type will changeover to rain after
about 20z. East winds today of 15 knots today become west 25 to 30
knots after 05z.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less today and tonight.

* moderate for ptype of freezing drizzle before 20z and rain after
20z.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for miz047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070.

Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for miz075-076-
082-083.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Dg jvc
marine... ... .Drk
aviation... ..Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSCM4 47 mi73 min 29°F 1013.9 hPa (-6.4)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi55 min ESE 18 G 21 29°F 33°F1012.8 hPa21°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi61 min SSE 17 G 24 30°F 1012.4 hPa24°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi61 min 31°F 1012.4 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi82 minESE 17 mi29°F21°F72%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S4S6S3S3CalmS3S4CalmS3S4SE3S4S5SE8SE9SE10SE9E9E17E15SE14E17SE20
1 day agoN4NW4CalmSW3SW6SW6W3W4NW6W6NW7W4W6W4W4W4W4SW7W6W6345SW6
2 days agoNE13NE16NE18E13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.