Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 8:21PM Sunday August 19, 2018 10:09 AM EDT (14:09 UTC) Moonrise 2:41PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ463 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 948 Am Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots late in the morning becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. A chance of showers until early morning. Rain showers early in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the morning...then becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon increasing to 20 to 25 knots late in the evening. Showers. A chance of showers early in the evening. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 8 to 12 feet late in the evening. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers early in the morning. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet in the late evening and early morning. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ463 Expires:201808192015;;896826 FZUS63 KDTX 191348 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 948 AM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Weak high pressure, 30.00 inches, will continue sliding east of the Great Lakes the rest of today. Low pressure over the central Plains, 29.70 inches, will deepen to at least 29.40 inches, as it tracks northeast across the Great Lakes late Monday and through Tuesday. In its wake, pressure will build to 30.20 inches as higher pressure settles over the east-central United States. LHZ462>464-192015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 191011
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
611 am edt Sun aug 19 2018

Aviation
Main concern for start of this TAF period will be areas of patchy
dense fog that have developed across portions of southeast michigan
this morning. Periods of mostly MVFR visibility with low ceilings
will be possible throughout the morning as patchy dense fog has
developed along i-69 and northward. Lowest visibilities are affecting
fnt so far where some visibility have dropped to lifr. Expect fog to
begin burning off by mid morning. Winds remain light through this
afternoon and shift out of the southeast with diurnal cumulus
development. Potential exists for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Activity will be scattered in nature leading to low
confidence low and holding off any mention of storms in the tafs for
now.

For dtw... Ceiling and visibility has remained above ifr for much of
this morning, though there still remains some low potential to see
visibility dip to ifr. Anticipate ceilings to remain at or below
5,000 ft throughout today.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* low for ceiling visibility down to 200ft and or 1 2 mile.

* moderate to high for ceiling 5 kft or less this morning into the
afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 348 am edt Sun aug 19 2018
discussion...

little variation in the overall pattern to finish the weekend, as
southeast michigan holds position within the southern fringe of
surface ridging anchored over southern canada and beneath lower
amplitude mid level NW flow. This will sustain a relatively static
low and mid level thermodynamic profile, one still defined by a
generally seasonable deep layer temperature regime and moist low
level conditions. Some pockets of fog and or low stratus will exist
post-daybreak, gradually mixing out within the ensuing growth to the
boundary layer. This process may yield some larger differential
heating boundaries, particularly within the higher terrain. It will
be within this corridor - stretching from lenawee washtenaw counties
northeast into sanilac county - where the greatest potential for
convective development will exist under modest boundary layer
destabilization. Westward advancing lake breeze activity will help
focus any activity, while the passage of a very weak shortwave may
also augment the process. Environment characterized by pw over 1.3"
and weak steering flow will bring the risk of localized very heavy
rainfall within deeper cells. Highs today generally in the lower
80s.

Plume of deeper moisture will briefly vacate the region tonight and
Monday as upper ridging takes control. Near surface moisture will
remain elevated through this time - dewpoints of low to mid 60s.

Given the light wind field, this will present another opportunity
for some fog development early Monday morning. Greater deep layer
stability will support dry conditions beneath the ridge on Monday.

Highs again low to mid 80s.

A moisture laden system will then lift across the region Monday
night into Tuesday. Steady strengthening of mid level energy now
tracking through the rockies will induce surface cyclogenesis across
the plains over the next 24 hours. This process will establish a
corridor of strong northward moisture transport within the warm
conveyor. Lead edge of this moisture axis remains projected to lift
into southeast michigan Monday night, anchored along the northeast
advancing warm frontal zone and supported by increasing mid level
cva along the eastern expanse of the inbound height falls. Strongest
low level convergence may focus just to the north and west given the
trajectory of the surface low, but a solid soaking rainfall appears
likely overnight into Tuesday morning given the underlying dynamics,
high moisture content and weakly unstable profile. Less favorable
nocturnal timing - particularly after 06z - will place a limit on
the possibility of seeing more organized convective development with
this initial surge.

Upper wave tracks across the lower peninsula on Tuesday, dragging an
attendant cold front through southeast michigan late in the day.

Augmented by favorable diurnal timing, this ascent should elicit a
secondary convective response. The degree of destabilization remains
uncertain owing to that possibility that cloud rain disrupt the
heating process at times. Should a window for greater heating
emerge, then an increasing deep layer wind field at the same time
may provide an opportunity for more organized thunderstorm activity
Tuesday afternoon.

Marine...

an area of high pressure with a weak wind gradient will slide east
through the great lakes today. This will bring light winds and low
waves, which will remain into Monday. A strengthening system across
the plains will move into the region Tuesday bringing unsettled
weather conditions. Winds will increase out of the northwest to
around 20-30 knots resulting in much higher waves by Tuesday night
and into Wednesday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Aa
discussion... Mr
marine... ... .Aa
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 22 mi69 min SSE 9.7 G 12 71°F 74°F1 ft1016.7 hPa
PSCM4 47 mi69 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 71°F 1017.3 hPa (+0.7)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi39 min S 5.1 G 6
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi39 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi45 min 71°F 1016.7 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
Last
24hr
E7
SE5
SE7
SE5
SE4
E6
E6
NE5
NE7
NE9
NE9
NE10
NE10
NE9
E8
E9
SE7
SE10
SE9
SE5
SW3
SW2
SW3
SW3
1 day
ago
N8
G11
N10
N10
G13
N11
G15
N12
G15
N10
N11
N10
G13
N10
N12
G15
N11
N9
G12
N7
N7
NW5
NW4
NW6
G9
NW6
NW7
W4
W4
W3
--
E8
G11
2 days
ago
SE6
SE8
SE10
SE14
S13
G16
SE14
SE15
SE12
SE13
SE12
SE12
SE12
S8
S7
G10
S4
SW5
SW4
W4
SW3
W4
SW4
NW7
N11
N8

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi78 minS 3 mi73°F68°F84%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
Last 24hrE7E4NE8NE8NE8NE8NE12NE9NE9NE9NE9NE8E8E7E7E7SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE5
1 day ago6N9N8433Calm3333NW4CalmNW4W4W5NW73CalmE7E10E9E12E7
2 days agoE10E12SE15SE16E15SE9SE12SE9SE9S6S4SE6S4S3CalmSW3SW5SW4W3W34NE93N9

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (10,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.