Monday, June24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

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Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 9:10PM Monday June 24, 2019 1:22 PM EDT (17:22 UTC) Moonrise 12:20AMMoonset 11:41AM Illumination 53% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Expires:201906242015;;002459 Fzus63 Kdtx 241400 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 1000 Am Edt Mon Jun 24 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Low pressure of 29.60 inches will lift northeast from the upper mississippi valley into the upper peninsula today, strengthening to 29.40 inches by tonight. This low will then shift on into ontario on Tuesday. A warm front will be forced north through the region today by this low with a trailing cold front then sweeping east through the region tonight. High pressure of 30.10 inches will gradually build into the area in the wake of this front and be positioned from the ohio valley west into the central plains by Thursday. Lhz363-462>464-242015- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 1000 am edt Mon jun 24 2019
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A chance of showers late in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the south early in the evening...then becoming light and variable in the late evening and early morning. A chance of. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming light and variable until early morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ463


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 241627
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1227 pm edt Mon jun 24 2019

Update
Forecast in regards to severe weather potential remains largely on
track for today. Latest morning update to the SPC outlook removed
the slight risk over lower michigan. A marginal risk remains in
place for most of our CWA excluding the northern thumb region, which
is consistent with current thought as uncertainty remains in the
degree of instability that will be able to build throughout the day
and if there can be any recovery when the better large scale ascent
and cold front arrives later today from flint to the saginaw valley
visible satellite showing pockets of clearing this morning, but
greater cloud cover is moving in ahead of scattered convection
supported by shortwave energy lifting northeastward through indiana
and illinois. This should help limit instability to a degree during
the peak heating hours. Surface winds now turning more southwest will
advect slightly higher dewpoints residing in lower michigan and
northern indiana, which still supports development of at least a few
hundred j kg of MLCAPE with the possibility of areas achieving near
1000 j kg. Bulk shear from 0-6 km of around 50 kts remains supportive
of storms, but flow will be mostly unidirectional out of the
southwest. Afternoon convection should have no problem developing
along and ahead of surface trough with little to no cin, which also
plays into the degree of instability that could build throughout the
day.

More confident window for stronger convection with an isolated
severe threat remains between 3-7 pm, but lower confidence in
recovery later this evening from 7-9 pm as better large scale ascent
and cold front arrive. The pwat value on the 12z sounding this
morning came in at 1.62 inches, so the primary threats will be
locally heavy rainfall along with lightning. Isolated hail and
damaging wind threat exists, but should remain isolated and limited
given meager lapse rates and lack of mid-level dry air supportive of
stronger updrafts.

Prev discussion
Issued at 639 am edt Mon jun 24 2019
aviation...

showers associated with warm front have lifted north of the area,
but re-development is expected in warm sector this afternoon. Before
that time, an area of MVFR to perhaps ifr stratus will advect north
through the area, slowly breaking up as surface warm front lifts to
the north of the region. Best chance of showers and embedded thunder
appears roughly in the 18z-00z, but lingers a bit beyond that as
surface trough pivots through out of the area.VFR CIGS will be the
rule in the wake of shower activity, but some wraparound moisture
may bring back MVFR to part of the area overnight.

For dtw... CIGS will likely stay below 5kft this morning and perhaps
into the afternoon. Shower chances increase by 18z + - 1 hour with
at least a chance for isolated thunderstorms around this afternoon
into early evening. SE winds will veer to ssw with the warm frontal
passage this morning and remain so on through tonight.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5 kft this morning, medium this afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms impacting the terminal ~18z-00z.

Prev discussion...

issued at 328 am edt Mon jun 24 2019
discussion...

initially very light rain has become more organized during the early
morning in response to consolidating mid-level convergence along a
strengthening corridor of theta-e advection incoming from the
southwest. The back edge of this activity will lift through the
forecast area between 10z and 16z, the wind turning southwest in its
wake and advecting dewpoints presently near 70 over indiana and
illinois into the area for the remainder of the day. Large scale
ascent will steadily increase through peak heating as the flow
becomes strongly divergent aloft downstream of the negatively tilted
trough centered over the upper ms river valley. This will be
sufficient to warrant maintaining chance pops for the balance of the
day. Latest rap progs indicate MLCAPE in excess of 500 j kg in the
presence of hodographs highly unfavorable for much in the way of
organization. Greater instability on the order of 1000 j kg
certainly attainable, but better mid-level drying supportive of
strong downdrafts will largely lag the primary wave of convection
effectively relegating any severe wind threat to low end and
isolated. Poor wind profile will support no better than a sparse
occurrence of 1 inch hail. Increasing forcing, ample boundary layer
moisture, and the lack of stronger capping further suggests
convection may develop sooner rather than later. As a result, high
temperatures have been tempered as have t-storm intensity
expectations. The most prominent threats are therefore expected to
be be lightning and locally heavy rain followed by a tertiary threat
of marginally severe wind focused in the 3pm to 7pm window. Greatest
coverage and severe threat will be over the northwest half of the
cwa coincident with the strongest dynamic forcing where more intense
convection may be sustainable for another couple of hours. Trailing
showers along the cold front would potentially exhaust any remaining
instability but late timing precludes any threat.

Surface high pressure generally the dominant feature for the
remainder of the week as subtropical ridging from the east pacific
and west atlantic coincidentally build north forcing the baroclinic
westerlies to retreat into southern canada. Temperatures will
moderate to the warm side of average as heights build and dewpoints
hold in the 60s each afternoon. Only defined opportunity for precip
during this period will be Tuesday night as the LLJ responds to a
passing shortwave over ontario during the diurnal minimum.

Marine...

low pressure will lift into the northern great lakes today into
tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will spread into area on
preceding warm front this morning with additional activity into
tonight as a cold front wraps east through the area around this low
pressure. The wind field will remain moderate for the most part, but
the passage of the cold front late tonight will usher in west to
southwest wind with gusts into the 20 to 25 knots range on Tuesday.

Highest gusts will occur over saginaw bay where the funneling of
the wind will enhance gusts and relatively mild waters will decrease
the over water stability as compared to other portions of the lakes.

Small craft advisories may need to be considered for this time frame.

Westerly wind continues while diminishing in speed through Wednesday
accompanied by dry conditions as high pressure approaches from the
midwest.

Hydrology...

moisture advection will continue with increasing south to southwest
flow today as a shortwave and associated low pressure lifts through
the upper midwest towards the northern great lakes. Pwat values will
increase to near 2 inches by afternoon. Multiple episodes of showers
will be possible during this time, any of which will be capable of
producing basin-average rainfall around one quarter of an inch over
the span of a several hours. The best chance of heavy rain will come
early this morning as a warm front lifts north through the area and
then again this afternoon into early this evening as thunderstorms
likely re-develop in advance of a cold front. All told, the basin
average rainfall will range between one quarter to one half an inch
over this 24 hour period of active weather.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Update... ... .Aa
aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Jvc
marine... ... .Dg
hydrology... .Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 22 mi83 min SE 7.8 G 7.8 62°F 57°F1 ft1005.5 hPa (-0.9)
PSCM4 47 mi83 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 63°F 1023.7 hPa (-1.0)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi53 min SSE 9.9 G 12 61°F 63°F1005.5 hPa58°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi53 min SSW 8 G 16 77°F 1005.3 hPa67°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi53 min 76°F 1005.3 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi32 minVar 5 mi74°F66°F79%1003.7 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E10SE11E8E8E6SE7SE8SE5SE5SE6SE4SE5S5SE6SE8SE5SE10
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1 day agoN43N4N3CalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4CalmCalmCalmW3CalmE3E3E7E8E9
2 days agoN6N3CalmCalmCalmNW3NW3NW3CalmNW3W3W3W4W4NW3Calm3N3CalmCalmCalmNW3N4N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.