Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cousins Island, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:41PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 1:32 PM EST (18:32 UTC) Moonrise 8:55PMMoonset 9:56AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 910 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
.storm watch in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday evening...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain in the evening. Areas of fog in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ100 910 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Low pressure over the great lakes will lift a warm front northward across the region today. This low will drag a trailing cold front across the area on Thursday. A secondary cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday night and will drop south through the region on Friday. Weak low pressure will approach from the west Friday night and will cross the region on Saturday. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cousins Island, ME
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location: 43.76, -70.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 231602
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
1102 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure over the great lakes will pull a warm front north
across the region today. The low will drag a trailing cold front
across the area on Thursday as it passes to our north. A secondary
cold front will drop south through the region on Friday. Weak
low pressure will approach from the west Friday night and will
cross the region on Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
11am update.. Have lowered the wind gusts for the coast tomorrow
as newer guidance continues to indicate the strongest winds may
have a hard time working their way down from aloft. The most
likely region for the strong winds to occur would be rockland
and the midcoast.

9am update... Morning sounding and higher elevation obs imply
the warm air is already beginning to stream in aloft. Have
updated to account for this, pushing the mixed precip slightly
further north at the time of onset.

630 am update... Few changes to the forecast for this update.

Mainly adjusted temperatures and pops with area of precipitation
moving in from ny state and vt. So far the only spots reporting
snow is berlin and whitefield nh.

Previous discussion... This morning low pressure was developing
near michigan along a warm front which extended from illinois
and into the eastern great lakes. Mixed precipitation was moving
along this feature with snow, freezing rain, and sleet all
being reported. Some echoes were moving into nh and northern
maine, but it is likely still too dry to allow anything to reach
the ground. This should change later this morning with light
snow first breaking out over the mountains were colder air will
remain entrenched longest. A mix of precipitation will develop
by late this afternoon over nh and maine, with a large area of
sleet and pockets of freezing rain expected in addition to snow.

Rain will dominate over the coastal plain and edge northward as
temperatures warm today.

A blend of short range models gave the best temperature scenario
and yielded light freezing rain in the winter storm advisory
areas. Androscoggin and kennebec counties in maine were added
to the advisory as it looks like they will get a coating of ice
as well. Even though many locations will see mainly rain, it is
worth noting, for rush hour especially, that road temperatures
are below freezing in some cases and this may lead to freezing
rain. Will likely handle this with a statement if this occurs.

Otherwise starting and end times of the advisory looks good.

Temperatures change very little from highs today (mid 20s north
to upper 30s south) to lows tonight due to warm air advection.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
The widespread precipitation continues into Thursday and begins
to be eroded from the SW as dry air arrives around midday. At
this point we should be seeing mostly rain across the region
with areas of fog. Temperatures will warm to near 40 degrees
north and near 50 south. A cold front pushes through tomorrow
afternoon and evening. There will be a very strong LLJ in play
here and mixing may be good enough to get some of the higher
gusts to the ground. 50-60 mph will be possible, especially
along the coast or in any heavier showers with these speeds just
850ft or so off the deck. A high wind watch has therefore been
issued as well as storm watches for the waters.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Ensemble and deterministic model solutions are in good agreement
on the long wave pattern through the upcoming weekend and into
early next week. The pattern continues to be a ridge for the
western third and a trough for the remainder of the CONUS with
varying degrees of phasing between progressive northern and
southern stream energy. The door is open for repeated outbreaks
of arctic air across the region punctuated by brief warm ups
ahead of several disturbances.

Aviation 16z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term... Light and variable winds will become ssw this
afternoon with speeds 10-20kts. Precipitation chances ramp up
this evening roughly from west to east with most TAF sites
seeing rain for the predominant precipitation type. Leb, hie,
and aug will see more of a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain
late tonight into Thursday. Ceilings and visibilities will drop
to MVFR or lower. Winds will veer from the south to the west
Thursday with isolated gusts in the 30-40kt range possible,
especially along the coast.

Long term...

fri... Sct MVFR in mtn -shsn.

Sun... Areas of MVFR in -sn.

Marine
Short term... A small craft advisory remains in effect today and
tonight. Storm watches have been posted for all of Thursday for
both the bays and the outer waters.

Long term...

fri... Scas psb outside the bays.

Sat - sun... Scas psb with gusts near gale outside the bays.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Winter weather advisory until 5 am est Thursday for mez007>009-
012>014-020-021.

High wind watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for mez023>028.

Nh... Winter weather advisory until 5 am est Thursday for nhz001>007-
011.

High wind watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for nhz014.

Marine... Storm watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for
anz150>154.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm est this evening for
anz150>154.

Synopsis...

near term... Curtis
short term... Hanes
long term... Schwibs
aviation...

marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 8 mi39 min 33°F 35°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 16 mi43 min SW 27 G 31 36°F 39°F7 ft1019.2 hPa (-5.4)26°F
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 35 mi93 min S 8 32°F 18°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 37 mi39 min SW 8.9 G 13 35°F 37°F1020.7 hPa
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 42 mi89 min SW 23 G 31 36°F 41°F7 ft
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 43 mi89 min SSW 23 G 29 37°F 41°F9 ft1020.8 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME11 mi42 minSSW 13 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy34°F15°F46%1020.7 hPa
Auburn-Lewiston, ME21 mi37 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast30°F14°F51%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Prince Point, Maine
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Prince Point
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Wed -- 12:12 AM EST     10.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:09 AM EST     -0.99 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:55 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:25 PM EST     11.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:48 PM EST     -1.92 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:55 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.39.98.25.42.40-1-0.51.54.47.610.211.511.49.97.13.70.6-1.4-1.9-0.81.54.67.6

Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:56 AM EST     1.23 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:47 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:58 AM EST     -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:54 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:17 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:11 PM EST     1.30 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:01 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:25 PM EST     -1.32 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:02 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.21.10.90.5-0.2-0.8-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.10.411.31.210.60-0.8-1.3-1.2-0.9-0.5-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.