Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cousins Island, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 4:12PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 9:20 AM EST (14:20 UTC) Moonrise 4:10PMMoonset 4:24AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 315 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Today..NE winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of snow and rain showers in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of snow showers in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow showers in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of snow.
ANZ100 315 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Low pressure will approach from the southwest then track east through the waters today. An arctic cold front will cross the waters Wednesday night, followed by a gusty northwest flow on Thursday and Friday. High pressure crests overhead Friday night into Saturday. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cousins Island, ME
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location: 43.76, -70.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 201236
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
736 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will track east along a stalled frontal
boundary over southern new england today. This low will exit
into the maritimes tonight. An arctic cold front will drop
south through the region on Wednesday. A strong northwest flow
follows the front Wednesday night and Thursday. High pressure
will build in from the west Thursday night and will crest over
the region on Friday. High pressure will shift offshore Friday
night and will hold there through Saturday. A warm front will
approach from the south Saturday night and Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
730 am... Northern part of band producing a couple inches of
snow, which is quite fluffy, i've upped amts a bit in this area,
but still in advisory levels, otherwise I think current
forecast, with banding developing along our SRN border and
coast should hold well thru today.

Previously... The overall forecast look to be in reasonable
shape, although I did expand the advisory N into grafton,
carroll and southern oxford counties, as secondary deformation
axis looks to get going here, which, combined with higher snow
ratios, will bring them into advisory. The best banding signal
looks to cross SE nh and then skirt the coast of me, with the
most intense snow moving through SRN nh this morning, the me
coast around casco bay midday, and the mid- coast mid-late
afternoon. The forecast was heavily weighted around the 00z euro
and the hrrr, with some deference to the nam12, especially
regarding location of banding. If the band creep further to the
north, more like the hrrr, some coastal areas could get closer
to 6 inches, but for the most part 3-5" in the advisory areas
seems reasonable. Also, think as the intensity picks up in srn
nh, will see the sn ra mix changed to just sn. Highs today will
likely be in the low 30s in SRN nh and along the coast, and
generally this morning. Cooler drier air will work in during the
afternoon, so temps will fall off some, but temps will not
change much through most of the day.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Some lingering snow will be moving out of the me zones early
this evening, but should see snow ending 21-01z from w-e. Temps
will fall off, especially later tonight, as NW flow pulls some
cooler air in, with lows reaching to 15-20 in the moutnains ton
the low to mid 20s in the south. Some clearing is likely outside
of the mtns after midnight as well.

Wednesday should be fair for a good party of the day, as SW flow
increases ahead of the arctic front, and generally sunny conds
through the morning, even in the mtns. Highs will rise into the
upper 20s n, to the mid to upper 30s in the south. Snow showers
and potentially squalls will move into the mtns by mid
afternoon, and they will traverse the CWA from nw-se during the
afternoon to early evening. Given good lapse rates and some
instability just ahead of the front fairly good chc to see some
squalls, or at least heavier snow showers in the mtns and
foothills, but less certain in SRN nh and the coastal plain of
me, as SW flow will already be downsloping, and air mass here
will be dry. Still, if a good band gets going it will likely
develop to the point of being self propagating, and has a shot
to make it to the coast and into SRN nh, so there is some
chance, just not as high as the NRN zones.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
The deterministic model solutions remain in good agreement on the
long wave pattern into the upcoming weekend. The period begins with
a western ridge and eastern trough across the conus. Fortunately
this pattern is progressive... With the upper trough lifting out
by the end of the work week. Rising heights and ridging arrive
post-holiday into the upcoming weekend. The upper trough keeps us
locked into well below normal temperatures for thanksgiving and
Friday before ridging and rising heights allow the mercury to
recover to near normal values in time for the weekend. In the
dailies... The final shortwave in the series drives an arctic front
across the area by Wednesday evening accompanied by a few
upslope snow showers and squalls. In its wake... The coldest air
of the season is introduced to the area for thanksgiving day on
a gusty northwest wind. There'll be some lingering upslope
clouds and flurries across the higher terrain on Thursday.

Otherwise... It'll be mostly sunny across the remainder of the
area. Air temperatures rebound to near ten above across the
mountains with teens for the remainder. The real story will be
the northwest wind of 15 to 25 mph producing wind chills of 10
below to 10 above zero during the day. The winds become light
Thursday night under the building high. The tradeoff with
diminishing wind and clear skies will be radiational cooling.

With the fresh snowpack... That should allow lows to tumble to
between 5 below and 5 above across the area. On Friday... The
airmass will begin to moderate and we'll see highs in the 20s.

That's still about 20 degrees below average... But a noticeable
improvement from Thursday. The warming trend arrives on Saturday
as the high shifts offshore and a milder return flow develops.

By Sunday... Model solutions diverge considerably but still hint
that the next disturbance will be on our doorstep.

Aviation 13z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term through Wednesday ... Lifr expected most of today in
sn. Should see some improvement this evening, butVFR will
likely not occur until after midnight.VFR for the most part
through wed, but could see brief reduction in snow squalls mi-
late afternoon.

Long term...

wed evening... Sct MVFR in mtn -shsn... Wth brief LCL ifr psb in
snow squalls.

Thu... Sct MVFR in mtn -shsn. NW sfc wind gusts to 30 kt.

Marine
Short term through Wednesday ... Ne flow picks up as
intensifying sfc low crosses the gulf of me today. This will
produce NE gusts to around 30 kt outside the bays today, with
seas rising to 5-6 ft as well. Winds will subside a bit
overnight and shift to west, the shift to SW on Wed and pick up
a bit ahead of a strong cold front.

Long term...

wed night - thu... Sca's likely... With gale's outside the bays.

Fri - sat... Sca's are psb outside the bays.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Winter weather advisory until 5 pm est this afternoon for
mez012.

Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
mez018>028.

Nh... Winter weather advisory until 5 pm est this afternoon for
nhz003>015.

Marine... Gale watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening
for anz150-152-154.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for anz150-
152-154.

Synopsis...

near term... Cempa
short term... Cempa
long term... Schwibs
aviation...

marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 8 mi51 min 33°F 46°F1014.7 hPa
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 16 mi31 min NE 19 G 23 34°F 47°F3 ft1013.2 hPa34°F
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 35 mi81 min N 4.1 33°F 33°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 37 mi51 min NNE 8 G 9.9 33°F 46°F1014.3 hPa
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 42 mi77 min NE 19 G 23 38°F 48°F4 ft1013.1 hPa
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 43 mi77 min NE 16 G 18 37°F 49°F2 ft1013 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME11 mi30 minENE 70.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist33°F32°F96%1014.7 hPa
Auburn-Lewiston, ME21 mi25 minN 63.00 miUnknown Precip Fog/Mist31°F30°F96%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr43N4N4N5N3NW3CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalm5445E7NE9NE7NE8E11E7
1 day ago4Calm3CalmS5S4SW5SW4CalmSW3SW5SW6SW4CalmW4CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4
2 days agoSW7SW7SW5SW7SW55SW5S3SW4W5W5W4W6W6NW75NW8NW94NW4N6N6N5N5

Tide / Current Tables for Prince Point, Maine
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Prince Point
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Tue -- 02:14 AM EST     0.77 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:24 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:30 AM EST     9.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:44 PM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:10 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:54 PM EST     9.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.21.50.81.12.34.36.68.49.49.48.46.54.120.70.51.335.37.48.79.28.57

Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
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Tue -- 12:45 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:45 AM EST     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:22 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:20 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:06 AM EST     0.93 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:14 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:15 PM EST     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:08 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:00 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:31 PM EST     0.83 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.4-0.1-0.7-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.10.30.70.90.90.80.60.2-0.5-0.8-0.8-0.5-0.300.50.80.80.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.