Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sebewaing, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 7:54PM Monday March 25, 2019 5:56 PM EDT (21:56 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:27AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 332 Pm Edt Mon Mar 25 2019
Rest of tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning, then diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Clear in the evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201903260930;;331251 FZUS53 KDTX 251932 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 332 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-260930-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebewaing, MI
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location: 43.76, -83.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 251945
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
345 pm edt Mon mar 25 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 344 pm edt Mon mar 25 2019
high impact weather potential... No high impact weather anticipated.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Quiet weather is expected across
northern michigan tonight, courtesy of building surface high
pressure and an associated dry airmass. Cloud cover will be
nonexistent, and winds should die off as the high pressure builds
in. Main concern overnight is how low temperatures will drop given
the good radiational cooling conditions. Since conditions overall
haven't changed much from this morning, went with lows similar to
those seen earlier today.

Short term (Tuesday through Thursday)
issued at 344 pm edt Mon mar 25 2019
high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... A strong, expansive surface high
initially centered over lower michigan Tuesday morning will drift
southeast of the area Tuesday night. Warm air and moisture advection
will increase heading into Wednesday as southwesterly return flow
ramps up ahead of the next system. Deepening low pressure tracking
towards james bay Wednesday night into Thursday will drag a cold
front through northern michigan on Thursday.

Primary forecast concerns... Precipitation chances late Wednesday
through Thursday.

Isentropic lift and a weak shortwave will slide across northern
michigan Wednesday afternoon-evening. Upper troughing then dives
into the area on Thursday as the low passes through james bay, with
weak forcing accompanying the trailing cold front. Despite pwats
climbing near 0.7 inches, it looks like another case where a lack of
deep layer moisture will limit overall precipitation potential.

Moisture will generally be limited to the lowest 10-15 kft, at times
perhaps below 5000 ft. Looks like just scattered rain shower
potential across eastern upper and perhaps the tip of the mitt
Wednesday afternoon evening. Will go with slight chance to chance
pops late Wednesday night into Thursday as the cold front passes
through.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 344 pm edt Mon mar 25 2019
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Weak high pressure slides across the upper great lakes Thursday
night into Friday. A developing low is progged to eject from the
central plains, riding a cold front into the ohio valley or lower
great lakes region by Saturday. This system will bring greater
potential for a more widespread precipitation event across northern
michigan, but it's exact track will determine the northward extent
of the precip. This will likely take the form of snow showers Friday
night before some areas transition to rain on Saturday. We might
even see some lake effect snow showers develop on Sunday as some
colder air briefly spills into the region. High pressure returns for
Monday.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 137 pm edt Mon mar 25 2019
vfr aviation conditions expected across the northern michigan
terminals through the 18z TAF valid time. Little no cloud cover is
anticipated. Winds may gust locally this afternoon out of the
northwest, but will trend light variable tonight as high pressure
builds in.

Marine
Issued at 344 pm edt Mon mar 25 2019
strong high pressure and a very dry airmass will remain over the
region tonight into Tuesday before departing to the atlantic coast
Tuesday night. As a result, expect continued clear skies until
higher clouds spread into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday
ahead of the next system. Still some low end advisory gusts across
northern lake huron, the st. Mary's, and whitefish bay, but those
will eventually subside this evening. Lighter winds out of the
southwest on Tuesday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Tuesday for lhz346>348.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Pb
short term... Mk
long term... Mk
aviation... Pb
marine... Mk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 4 mi57 min ESE 5.1 G 6 30°F 1024.4 hPa (-1.0)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi54 min E 8.9 G 11 29°F 1025.4 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 36 mi77 min E 5.1 G 8.9 33°F 1025.4 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SW11
G14
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N7
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N20
G29
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G15
NW7
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G12
W6
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G12
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G14

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Caro, Tuscola Area Airport, MI24 mi62 minNNW 410.00 miFair39°F10°F32%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from CFS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7N8N8
G14
N5N4N4N3N5N5N4NE3NE3N4N4N6NE7NE6NE7N5N9N6
G15
N7N8NW7
1 day agoSW7SW6SW5SW3CalmS3SW5SW4S4SW7SW6SW6SW7SW7SW5SW6SW7SW7SW9W9W10NW11
G14
W7W7
2 days agoN13
G17
NW11NW10NW9NW11NW12
G17
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G15
NW12NW10NW8NW7NW6NW6NW6W4W5W5W5W5W9W7SW10SW6W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.