Monday, May22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sebewaing, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 9:03PM Monday May 22, 2017 5:33 PM EDT (21:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:21AMMoonset 4:10PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 342 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered light showers. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then backing to the east late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with scattered light showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a chance of light showers in the late evening and overnight. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers early in the morning. A chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201705230315;;040842 FZUS53 KDTX 221942 NSHDTX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 342 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LHZ422-230315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebewaing, MI
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location: 43.76, -83.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 221933
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
333 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Near term (tonight through Tuesday)
issued at 331 pm edt Mon may 22 2017
high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast... Vertically-stacked low pressure remains
centered over southern ontario this afternoon... With deep cyclonic
flow across the entire upper midwest and great lakes region. Potent
short wave riding thru the fast 500 mb flow has pushed east of our
cwa... Resulting in a rapid diminish in shower activity even across
northern sections where lift and moisture were maximized. A few
breaks in cloud cover are trying to develop in our far southern
counties... But self-destruct sunshine will likely win out with
additional low clouds quickly develop again due to enhancement to
diurnal instability.

As we head into tonight... Another spoke of energy will slide thru
mainly northern lower michigan this evening within the fast 500 mb
flow... Producing additional scattered showers and serving to
reinforce our low cloud deck. A temporary break in the action
overnight along with a few breaks in cloud cover will allow for some
fog development as temps fall mainly in the 40s for overnight lows
will small dwpt depressions. Another area of low pressure and
associated moisture will lift NE toward michigan on Tuesday...

producing another round of sct/nmrs showers across mainly northern
lower michigan. Near term models suggest enough diurnal
destabilization during the afternoon (mucapes of 500 to 750 j/kg) to
warrant a slight chance of thunder in portions of northern lower
michigan. High temps on Tuesday will warm in the 60s across our
entire cwa.

Short term (Tuesday night through Thursday)
issued at 331 pm edt Mon may 22 2017
high impact weather potential... None.

Remaining unsettled and a little cool...

a cutoff upper level low pressure system will continue to result in
showery and somewhat cool weather across the region. There could be
showers just about anytime during this period as upper level
impulses circulate around the parent upper low. Along with the
showers, lots of clouds will continue to combine with below normal
temperatures to make it seem a little on the dark and dismal side.

Not the kind of weather most people hope for this time of the year,
though any rainfall is beneficial as we haven't had a whole lot over
the last few weeks. High temperatures will be in the lower and
middle 60s with lows in the middle and upper 40s.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 331 pm edt Mon may 22 2017
pattern remains tough to get a handle on for the extended. For most,
the first half of the holiday weekend looks to remain rain free,
with some guidance wanting to include some scattered light showers.

Lots of differences as we get into Sunday and Monday, however.

American guidance is the most aggressive, with rain starting Sunday
afternoon and going through Monday. But given the recent poor
extended performance and continued tough to predict pattern, I don't
have a lot of faith in it. European guidance isn't completely dry,
but duration and intensity are much less. Current pops are likely a
bit strung out over Sunday and Monday as a result, hopefully there
will be some convergence in solutions in the next few days.

Temperatures are expected to remain on the warm side of normal.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 125 pm edt Mon may 22 2017
deep cyclonic flow and residual low level moisture will keep
northern lower michigan under low clouds and periodic chances of
showers tonight. Another wave will push toward southern sections
of our CWA on Tuesday... Producing additional showers for Tuesday.

Overall conditions will remain MVFR/lowVFR... With a diminish to
ifr late tonight into early Tuesday as some fog develops. W/sw
winds gusting to 10 to 20 kts this afternoon will become
light/variable tonight.

Marine
Issued at 331 pm edt Mon may 22 2017
winds and waves will remain at SCA criteria into early evening as
low pressure holds north of michigan over southern ontario.

Conditions will drop below criteria tonight thru Tuesday night as
the low level pressure gradient loosens. Periodic chances of showers
will remain in the forecast thru Tuesday night as a series of low
pressure systems impact the area.

Apx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz345.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz323-341-
342-344>346.

Ls... None.

Near term... Mlr
short term... Ajs
long term... Alm
aviation... Mlr
marine... Mlr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 4 mi33 min WSW 15 G 18 62°F 1011.5 hPa (-1.0)
45163 16 mi33 min WSW 9.7 G 12 62°F 55°F2 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi53 min SW 15 G 17 60°F 1012.5 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 36 mi53 min WSW 6 G 13 65°F 1012.2 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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NE7
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N17
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NE14
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N4

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Caro, Tuscola Area Airport, MI24 mi39 minW 14 G 2010.00 miFair66°F43°F44%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from CFS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11
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1 day agoE11
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E5E5E6E7E5E4E5E6SE4SE6SE8SE5SE7SE4S6S5S9S7S11S7
G15
2 days agoNE7NE8NE7NE3NE5NE5NE4NE5NE5NE3E4E7E5E8E8E8
G17
E12
G15
E10
G17
E13
G19
E16
G21
E10
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E11
G19
E6E9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.