Monday, July23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sebewaing, MI

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Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 9:09PM Monday July 23, 2018 7:24 AM EDT (11:24 UTC) Moonrise 4:56PMMoonset 1:57AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 348 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light showers. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of light showers until early morning...then mostly cloudy early in the morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable...then becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy. A chance of light showers. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers until early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201807232100;;914678 FZUS53 KDTX 230748 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 348 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-232100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebewaing, MI
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location: 43.76, -83.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 231054
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
654 am edt Mon jul 23 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 213 am edt Mon jul 23 2018

Still a bit damp for some...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast: pesky upper level troughing remains,
locked in place by a well northward displaced progressive northern
stream flow regime. Light showers and areas of drizzle continue as
weak support interacts with still plenty of lingering deep layer
moisture. Precipitation amounts overnight have been light, mostly
well under a tenth of an inch.

Really, not a whole lot of change heading through the next 24 hours
or so as both troughing and attendant moisture plume remain
overhead. Forcing is never great, but minor diurnal contribution and
maintenance of that trough axis supports some additional mostly
light shower activity right through tonight.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: addressing that additional
shower potential, along with temperature and cloud trends.

Details: nothing really to hang your hat on with regards to specific
forcing to drive additional shower development today and tonight.

There is some hints of enhanced low level convergence across
northwest lower and eastern upper michigan, with diurnal trends
supporting the development of perhaps a bit of instability within
this convergence axis very late this afternoon and evening. Some
drying noted this morning within the mid and upper levels, with the
return of a bit better moisture this afternoon and evening to
perhaps entice shower development. Confidence is most definitely low
with regards to both spatial and temporal detail to any shower
activity right through tonight. Will focus "best" shower chances
along that anticipated convergence zone, but even there will keep
low end chance pops at best. Not expecting any thunder as updrafts
appear weak enough in the mixed phase portion of the clouds to
prevent good charge separation. Definitely more clouds than sun
today, with perhaps a few more breaks developing in the overcast
tonight. Those clouds and light east to northeast flow will keep
temperature just a bit below normal today, with readings topping out
mostly in the middle 70s this afternoon. Lows tonight ranging from
the upper 50s to middle 60s.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 213 am edt Mon jul 23 2018

Occasional shower chances continue..

High impact weather potential: slight chance of thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon, primarily across northern lower.

Pattern forecast: ridging across the western atlantic allowing very
little eastward progress of this weekend's well-advertised unsettled
weather. Closed upper level circulation centered across the
ohio tennessee valleys early this morning will gradually become an
open wave through Tuesday, but make very little eastward movement
while doing so. Meanwhile, a strengthening system across manitoba is
expected to be evident early this week with a shortwave ejecting
toward the great lakes during the day Tuesday. An attendant cold
front, combined with lingering moisture across the region from this
weekend's system, may be enough to spark a few showers and or
thunderstorms across a portion of northern michigan... Primarily
Tuesday afternoon. A weak area of high pressure is then expected to
follow for the midweek time frame before another system gets set to
approach the region late Wednesday night into Thursday.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: shower storm chances Tuesday.

A sharp gradient with respect to deep layer moisture is progged to
be in place across northern michigan come the start of the period
Tuesday morning with pws progged at greater than 1.50 inches east of
i-75... Tapering quickly to less than inch near the lake mi shore
line. A combination of afternoon lake breezes and a weak surface
boundary progressing west to east throughout the day is expected to
be enough to kick off scattered showers and a few thunderstorms...

mainly focused east of i-75 across northeast lower and eastern
upper. Early day peeks of Sun are expected to promote diurnal
destabilization with MLCAPE values pushing 1,000 j kg by mid-
afternoon. With little in the way of bulk shear (aob 20 kts), severe
weather isn't a glaring concern, but any thunderstorms could produce
locally heavy downpours.

Much drier air is eventually expected to arrive Tuesday night into
Wednesday as high pressure gradually sags into the region from the
west. Thus, quieter conditions are expected on Wednesday with
light winds, mild temperatures, and mostly sunny skies.

High temperatures Tuesday ranging from near 80 to the mid 80s area-
wide. Wednesday's highs climb a couple of degrees... From the low to
upper 80s across northern michigan. Each day will likely see lake
breezes develop keeping the immediate shorelines several degrees
cooler.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 213 am edt Mon jul 23 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Primary focus through the extended forecast period revolves around
the Wednesday night through Friday timeframe as a well-defined wave
and associated strengthening surface low are expected to trek from
southern manitoba into southern quebec by the end of the week. This
system will have the potential to bring occasionally unsettled
weather to northern michigan with the highest chances for
precipitation arriving late Wednesday night - Thursday in
association with the system's cold front crossing the forecast area.

However, pockets of wrap around moisture lingering into the end of
the week may continue on off shower chances through at least a
portion of the upcoming weekend (with even some lake induced rain
showers on Friday?).

A cooling trend will be evident through at least the first half of
the extended with the coolest day on Friday as current trends
suggest high temperatures struggling to reach much past the low-mid
70s for most.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 652 am edt Mon jul 23 2018
more of the same with variable CIGS within passing mostly light
showers through the TAF period. Most of the time will remain dry,
and CIGS will be mainly MVFR toVFR. Some hints of lower CIGS and
vis restrictions developing very late tonight as low level
moisture lingers. Light winds through the period.

Marine
Issued at 213 am edt Mon jul 23 2018
weak low pressure, responsible for some gusty northeast
winds on lake huron this past evening, will continue to weaken as it
rotates further southwest into south central michigan this morning.

Attendant increasingly diffuse pressure gradient will result in a
gradual decrease in wind speeds today. Pressure gradient then
remains weak for the next several days, resulting in both winds and
waves remaining below advisory criteria through at least the middle
of this week.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... mb
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... mb
marine... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 4 mi25 min SE 11 G 13 65°F 1011.2 hPa (+1.4)
45163 16 mi45 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 66°F 70°F1 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi45 min E 9.9 G 12 65°F 1012.5 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 36 mi45 min E 5.1 G 8.9 64°F 1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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S10
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G17
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G12
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Caro, Tuscola Area Airport, MI24 mi30 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist62°F60°F93%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from CFS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3E4E5E5E4CalmN4N6N6CalmNW4N5CalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4E5
1 day agoE4E3E5E5SE7E6
G15
E9
G14
E7E7E9SE9E6E3NE4E4NE4NE4E3NE5E4NE4CalmNE3NE4
2 days agoE5SE5SE8SE6SE9SE9SE8S11
G16
SE5S8SE8SE9
G15
SE10
G17
SE9SE7
G15
SE8E8SE7SE7E5E6E3E4E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.