Saturday, October21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sebewaing, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:57AMSunset 6:42PM Saturday October 21, 2017 11:38 AM EDT (15:38 UTC) Moonrise 8:34AMMoonset 7:08PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 1008 Am Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny in the late morning and early afternoon becoming partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning...then becoming west 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201710212100;;187205 FZUS53 KDTX 211408 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1008 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-212100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebewaing, MI
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location: 43.76, -83.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 211434
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1034 am edt Sat oct 21 2017

Update
Issued at 1034 am edt Sat oct 21 2017
more cloud cover out there than yesterday, thanks to mid high
clouds driven by deep and persistent warm advection. This will be
the general trend thru the day, countered by a somewhat warmer
airmass to work with. End result should be MAX temps fairly close
to yesterdays. Earlier virga has thinned out considerably;
nothing out there so much as resembles even a sprinkle, and
surface obs not showing any clouds below 12k agl.

Some minor adjustments to increase cloud cover. No major changes
made.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 311 am edt Sat oct 21 2017

Well above normal temperatures and breezy...

high impact weather potential... Elevated fire danger this afternoon
due to warm temperatures and gusty winds.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Overnight upper air analysis reveals a
fairly amplified pattern across the CONUS with short wave energy
dumping into the western CONUS (downstream from an very energetic
pacific jet)... And downstream ridging across the great lakes into
the SE states. Surface high pressure remains anchored along the
eastern seaboard and low pressure migrating through the northern
plains. In between... A tight p-gradient remains across the midwest
and into the far western great lakes driving a narrow theta-e
ridge and corridor of mid and high cloud cover toward the region.

Primary forecast concerns... Minimal through tonight. How warm can
we get today... And elevated fire danger issues.

High pressure will largely remain along the eastern seaboard
through the today before edging into the atlantic tonight.

Upstream low pressure swings into canada and eventually drives a
cold front associated showers through the region on Sunday. There
are some warm advection showers close by... Advancing through the
upper midwest far western great lakes this morning... Most of which
should remain west of our area through tonight (might see a few
showers trying to sneak into the far western part of the CWA late
tonight). But will keep the forecast dry through tonight.

Meanwhile... Satellite trends and rh forecasts all suggest we see
a bit more mid high cloud cover today as compared to Friday. This
does make it a bit tricky for forecast highs. Forecast soundings
reveal a slightly warmer lower level thermal profile... Although
with reduced sunshine. Have started with observed highs from
Friday and shaved maybe a degree or so off for today... With a
couple of record high temperatures potentially in jeopardy.

Record temperatures for october 21...

traverse city 82 1953
sault saint marie 70 1978 1920
alpena 78 1920
houghton lake 82 1947
pellston 78 1953
gaylord 83 1953
finally... Breezy conditions anticipated today... Perhaps more so
than Friday with stronger winds forecast at the top of the mixed
layer. Combined with mid 70s highs and recent stretch of dry
weather... Will lead to elevated fire danger through the afternoon.

Short term (Sunday through Monday)
issued at 311 am edt Sat oct 21 2017

Warm again Sunday then cooling off...

our recent stretch of unseasonably warm days will be ending but not
before one more day of relative warmth. A surface cold front moving
across the region Sunday afternoon and evening will assure that it
will come to an end. This front will be accompanied by a band of
rain showers. Upper support (dynamics) associated with this feature
will be weakening so do not anticipate much if any thunder (perhaps
a stray rumble or two, especially if the better instability of the
nam comes true). Temperatures once again well above normal with
highs ranging from the middle 60s north to the lower 70s south.

Shower activity should shift off to our east by late evening with
skies likely clearing out. Increasing clouds Monday with chances for
a few afternoon showers (especially eastern zones) as the next
front upper trough approach from the northwest while surface low
pressure possibly moves up from the south. Not as warm but still
above normal with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 311 am edt Sat oct 21 2017
big questions remain over whether a northern stream trough phases
with energy moving up from the south. If this were to occur then
low pressure would likely rapidly deepen across lake huron Monday
night into Tuesday. Models remain on the almost but not quite band
wagon with the ECMWF 21 00z run now on board too (for not
phasing). Low pressure still moves up from the south but it is
shown to speed by to the east while only deepening a little. Still
too early to call but will keep the increasing pops Monday night
into Tuesday for now and see how things evolve with time. The
northern stream trough by itself would likely contain showers, and
with colder 850 mb temperatures lead to increasing over lake
instability into at least Tuesday night if not Wednesday. Still
can't rule out it getting cold enough for a few wet snow flakes in
the higher terrain. Warm advection then kicks in from a possible
plains system toward the end of the week bringing more shower
chances. Temperatures will continue to cool off through midweek
before increasing a bit toward week's end.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 635 am edt Sat oct 21 2017

Llws issues continue...

vfr weather continues. But... Stronger winds aloft continue also
leading to nighttime llws and gustier winds through the day.

More cloud cover today as compared to Friday... Of the mid and
high cloud variety. Regional radar plots do show spotty returns
pushing into lower michigan from the sw. But returns are mainly
virga given the dry air in the lower levels (although a few
raindrops in a couple places is possible today).

Cold front presses into the region tonight and will bring lowering
cloud cover late (stillVFR). Showers with the front are looking
to hold off until around or after 12z.

Marine
Issued at 311 am edt Sat oct 21 2017
gustier winds and small craft advisory conditions will persist on
the lake michigan nearshore areas today through Sunday and will
extend small craft advisories accordingly. Winds waves may remain
just below small craft advisory criteria for the remainder of the
nearshore areas... And will hold off on issuing additional sca's
for today. Otherwise... Dry weather and partly cloudy conditions
anticipated through tonight. Cold front arrives Sunday and will
bring a period of showers through the region.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Sunday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... None.

Update... Jz
near term... Ba
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Ba
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 4 mi38 min S 13 G 14 60°F 1020.7 hPa (+0.4)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi58 min SSE 11 G 13 61°F 1021.7 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 36 mi58 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 61°F 1021.3 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Caro, Tuscola Area Airport, MI24 mi43 minSSW 810.00 miFair65°F51°F61%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from CFS (wind in knots)
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S11S6S5S5S4S5SW5SW5S5SW5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S10
1 day agoW11
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W6SW4SW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS8
2 days agoS14
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SW10SW6SW9SW11
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SW8SW10W8W13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.