Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sebewaing, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 9:00PM Monday May 20, 2019 2:35 AM EDT (06:35 UTC) Moonrise 9:59PMMoonset 6:32AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 926 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2019
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy this evening becoming partly cloudy. Light showers and Thunderstorms likely this evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the afternoon.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable, then becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201905200915;;143318 FZUS53 KDTX 200126 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 926 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-200915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebewaing, MI
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location: 43.76, -83.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 200332
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1132 pm edt Sun may 19 2019

Update
Issued at 1000 pm edt Sun may 19 2019
low pressure making steady northeast progress across northern
michigan this evening. All instability is lost, leaving behind
just some scattered light rain showers. Expect shower coverage to
wane for a bit, waiting on arrival of rather vigorous upstream
shortwave trough to bring increasing shower chances again later
tonight into early Monday. Per simple extrapolation of mid level
support and expected low level MAX convergence axis, would expect
greatest coverage with this second round to be found across
northwest lower michigan in through the straits region. Additional
rain amounts will be light, likely remaining well under a quarter
of an inch. Increasing cold air advection as winds swing around
to west and northwest will drop temperatures into the lower and
middle 40s by morning.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 333 pm edt Sun may 19 2019

Showers and storms continue into this evening...

high impact weather potential... Severe storms are possible across
northern lower michigan into this evening... With the primary threat
of damaging winds.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Low pressure center has reached southern
wisconsin this afternoon. Associated warm front has lifted slightly
further north into central lower michigan... With the cold front
extending southward thru missouri into eastern texas. Yet another
wave of convection associated with this system is moving thru our
cwa attm. Reflectivity is higher within this area of precip... But
thunder is isold at best due to lack of sufficient instability.

Widespread showers... Thick cloud cover and easterly winds north of
the warm front are keeping temps generally in the 40s and 50s for
the most part across our cwa... With the exception of our far SW cwa
where temps have popped up into the 60s.

Lack of sufficient instability has kept thunder at bay so far.

Latest near term models continue to focus further south for better
instability thru this evening... With only the far northern edge of
the instability axis poking up into our southern cwa. Mucapes will
likely remain below 500 j kg at best... And will be restricted to our
far SE cwa. Will certainly keep a mention of thunder in the
forecast... Focusing mainly late afternoon early evening for the best
chance of thunder during peak heating and just as the surface low is
moving thru northern lower michigan. Cannot rule out an isold
marginally severe storm with damaging wind the primary threat.

However... Will need to realize better instability for this to
occur... Which is becoming a less likely scenario given that this
persistent thick cloud.

Thunder threat should end by or shortly after 00z this evening as
the low begins to pull east of our area and CAA begins in its wake.

Wrap-around moisture on the backside of this system will keep
northern michigan in ample low level moisture clouds as well as
periodic light rain drizzle overnight into Monday. Low temps will
be into the 40s across our entire cwa.

Short term (Monday through Wednesday)
issued at 333 pm edt Sun may 19 2019

Chilly Monday then turning warmer...

high impact weather potential... Areas of frost Monday night.

Primary forecast concerns... The frost.

Colder air advects in Monday behind the departing surface cold
front. Scattered instability driven (lake effect) rain showers
expected (mainly in the morning). Looking at model soundings, the
melting layer appears to be just deep enough to prevent wet snow
flakes from mixing in. However, I still wouldn't be totally shocked
if there were a few across the higher terrain. It will be rather
brisk with gusty northwest winds. Mostly cloudy skies should give
way to gradual afternoon clearing from west to east. Forecast highs
in the upper 40s to mid 50s... Though much of the day should be
spent in the 40s.

Monday night and Tuesday... High pressure builds in from the
northwest. This will lead to diminishing winds and mostly clear
skies. Areas of frost are still expected. Warmer Tuesday with highs
in the lower and mid 60s.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Perhaps a few warm advection driven
showers Wednesday, otherwise partly cloudy and mild conditions
expected. Lows in the lower and mid 40s. Highs in the upper 50s to
mid 60s.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 333 pm edt Sun may 19 2019

Above normal temperatures...

high impact weather potential: none expected.

Extended models continue to be in general agreement that a long wave
trough digs into the west coast with downstream ridging centered
across the southeastern states. Northern michigan still looks like
it will be on the northern periphery of the ridge... Likely leading
to above normal temperatures. Will still have to be cognizant of
possible convective complexes topping the ridge. Precipitation
chances remain a tough call with shower chances Wednesday night and
Thursday night through early Saturday.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1129 pm edt Sun may 19 2019
impactful period of weather continues across the TAF locations
through this morning. Cold front in the process of moving east out
of the area. While shower activity has largely departed ahead of
this front, band of lower CIGS (MVFR to ifr) expected to swing
back across the region early this morning. This moisture will
likely bring some more showers along with it, especially across
kpln. CIGS expected to improve as we head through later this
morning, and especially during the afternoon hours. Clear skies
expected by this evening. Winds are expected to become gusty out
of the northwest today.

Marine
Issued at 333 pm edt Sun may 19 2019
winds and waves will continue to periodically reach SCA criteria
this afternoon... Tonight and Monday as low pressure tracks through
northern lower michigan. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms
will also continue to impact our entire nearshore area thru this
evening... And will then diminish to areas of light rain and drizzle
overnight into Monday as the surface low departs our state.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Monday for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Monday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Monday for lsz321-322.

Update... mb
near term... Mr
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... mb
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 4 mi35 min W 19 G 23 56°F 1004.1 hPa (+1.4)
45163 16 mi35 min W 12 G 16 55°F 52°F2 ft
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 36 mi55 min WSW 8 G 13 54°F 1003.4 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Caro, Tuscola Area Airport, MI24 mi40 minWSW 710.00 miFair58°F54°F88%1004.7 hPa

Wind History from CFS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6NW5NW5NW5CalmSW8W8S9
G15
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1 day agoCalmE3E3CalmSE3SE3E4E6SE9
G15
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SE8SE11SE8SE9SE8E6E5E4SE5SE4SE5S4Calm
2 days agoCalmN3CalmCalmN3N5N6N7N6NE5NE5CalmCalmN4N5NE4NE4E4E8E5SE3CalmNE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.