Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sebewaing, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:00AMSunset 5:01PM Friday December 15, 2017 6:46 PM EST (23:46 UTC) Moonrise 5:18AMMoonset 3:43PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 328 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy with a chance of light snow showers. Waves nearly calm.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northeast in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light snow showers early in the morning...then a slight chance of light snow showers in the late morning and early afternoon. Waves nearly calm.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves nearly calm.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Cloudy. Waves nearly calm. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201712161000;;944083 FZUS53 KDTX 152028 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 328 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-161000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebewaing, MI
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location: 43.76, -83.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 152025
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
325 pm est Fri dec 15 2017

Near term (tonight through Saturday)
issued at 317 pm est Fri dec 15 2017

Accumulating lake snows end tonight...

high impact weather potential... Some additional snow accumulations
expected in the traditional lake belts this evening.

Pattern synopsis forecast: lake effect snow showers continue early
this afternoon as passing waves within broad deep layer trough axis
continue to provide some background synoptic scale contribution.

With that said, steady drying above a slowly lowering subsidence
inversion has definitely kept overall organization of lake snows in-
check since passing of morning cold front. Still, some phenomenal
snowfall rates in the heavier showers, with up to and over 2 inches
per hour at times here at the office. Passage of that front has
targeted the traditional snowbelts of northwest lower and eastern
upper michigan for the most persistent lake snows.

Passage of last shortwave trough this evening and attendant further
lowering of inversion heights loss of synoptic moisture will slowly
throttle back on lake snows by later tonight. Much quieter
conditions expected to kick off the weekend as focus for lighter
snows shifts south Saturday along lingering baroclinic axis.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: additional snow tonight and
associated headline decisions.

Details: west northwest flow lake effect snow showers will continue
right through the very early morning hours, although likely
decreasing in intensity as inversions further lower and transition
to a pure les environment becomes complete. Despite the lowering of
intensity, expected band organization with loss of diurnal
disruption and strong support for areas of enhanced converge north
of m-72 still supports at least a few inches of additional snow,
most of which will fall this evening. Much less favorable fetch
further south should keep accumulations minimal. Best convergence
will focus further west with time for eastern upper, but not before
numerous snow showers deposit a few more inches up near
paradise whitefish point. Wind fields becoming light northerly by
Saturday morning should end the snow shower threat for most. As for
headlines, those north of m-72 in northern lower and chippewa county
in eastern upper will remain through their duration (midnight),
while those further south will be cancelled with the afternoon
forecast release.

Elongated weak fgen band and area of deeper moisture may bring a few
flurries pockets of light snow Saturday morning to southern areas.

Not a big deal for sure. Continuous feed of low level dry air should
end the snow threat by afternoon, although plenty of clouds will
linger, especially south of m-72. Temperatures will remain several
degrees below normal, with highs ranging from the teens north to the
lower middle 20s south.

Short term (Saturday night through Monday)
issued at 317 pm est Fri dec 15 2017
high impact weather potential... Minimal. Some patch freezing drizzle.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Strong high pressure centered just NE of
michigan Saturday night will slide east thru southern quebec Sunday
and Monday... As a weak area of low pressure lifts NE thru the great
lakes region Sunday night and Monday. This system will lack
sufficient moisture and lift to produce any measurable precip
across our area during the last half of the weekend into early next
week. But moisture cross-sections and model soundings suggest most
of our CWA will see scattered flurries patchy freezing drizzle thru
much of this forecast period... Along with persistent low clouds.

Temps will steadily moderate thru the period as dry easterly flow
shifts to the SE and eventually sw... Pumping "warmer" air into the
the great lakes region. After a cold Saturday night with overnight
lows in the single digits above zero to teens... Temps will begin to
rebound on Sunday with afternoon highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Temps will cool back into the 20s Sunday night... But will rebound
even further on Monday. Afternoon highs will warm well into the 30s
across our entire cwa.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 317 pm est Fri dec 15 2017
a bit of a mixed bag in store over the extended period. With high
temperatures getting above freezing early in the week, some areas
could see a bit of a rain snow mix as a clipper system moves
through. A push of cold air behind it will bring another round of
lake effect Wednesday ahead of another system moving out of the
plains bringing more widespread system snow for late week. Will have
to keep an eye on this late week system, warm air isn't to far
removed and a more northern track with this system could bring about
some messy p-type issues. While a more southern track will keep
things cool enough for all snow.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 320 pm est Fri dec 15 2017
lake effect snow showers will continue to bring periods of
ifr MVFR producing conditions to western TAF locations this
evening. Slow improvement expected overnight through the day
Saturday, with mostlyVFR conditions expected by later Saturday
morning. Snow to liquid ratios will remain elevated, equal to or
great than 20 to 1.

Marine
Issued at 317 pm est Fri dec 15 2017
gusty winds will slowly subside later tonight, with sub-
advisory level winds expected for the weekend.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until midnight est tonight for miz008-
016-017-019>022-027-028.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Saturday for lhz347>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Saturday for lmz323-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Saturday for lsz321.

Near term... mb
short term... Mr
long term... Am
aviation... Jz
marine... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 4 mi47 min W 18 G 24 24°F 1008.1 hPa (+2.0)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi57 min WSW 26 G 26 24°F 1008.5 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 36 mi67 min W 12 G 20 24°F 1007.1 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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NW16
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Caro, Tuscola Area Airport, MI24 mi52 minWSW 9 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy22°F11°F64%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from CFS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW5SW3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4S5S7S8S10SW11SW13
G18
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W10SW11
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1 day agoNE4NE5N5N8N5N7NW5N14
G18
NW9NW9NW9NW5W5W4W4W3W4W8W6W7W4W4SW3Calm
2 days agoNW13
G18
NW8NW8NW8NW8NW7NW6W4W6W4CalmCalmSW4CalmE3SE5S5E8SE8SE6E8E8E7NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.