Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pentwater, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 8:06PM Sunday March 26, 2017 8:41 PM EDT (00:41 UTC) Moonrise 6:01AMMoonset 5:36PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 337 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Tonight..Southeast winds around 5 knots veering southwest late at night, then veering northwest 10 to 15 knots toward daybreak. Cloudy with a chance of showers. Areas of fog overnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Cloudy. A slight chance of light rain in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light rain. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet toward daybreak.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny until midday then clearing. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ848 Expires:201703270315;;119805 FZUS53 KGRR 261937 NSHGRR NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 337 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ848-270315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pentwater, MI
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location: 43.78, -86.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 262354
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
754 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 300 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017
the system that has been plaguing the area with cool, cloudy, and
wet weather this weekend will finally slowly move out through early
Monday. Before this moves out, another round of showers and embedded
storms will affect the area this evening. Another wave of low
pressure could bring some light rain to far southern lower michigan,
late Monday afternoon and Monday night.

A quiet period looks to be in store for the Tuesday and Wednesday
time frame. Temperatures will be fairly seasonable to a little
warmer than average. Wet weather looks to return to the area
beginning Thursday, and lasting into next weekend once again.

Short term (this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 300 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017
our two main periods of interest in the short term are this evening
with the departing low, and then late mon/mon night with pcpn chcs
coming in with the next wave.

The more widespread rain/showers are currently moving north of the
cwfa as of 19z this this afternoon, with more scattered rain showers
coming in from indiana. The widespread rain is out ahead of a wave
that looks to be rotating up the nearshore waters. The showers
across indiana seem to be near the main front around the mi/in
border.

We are expecting the showers in indiana to move up in the area this
afternoon, with an isolated rumble of thunder not out of the
question to develop. Conditions are mostly cloudy to our south with
just a few small breaks in the overcast. The cold pool aloft and
warm/moist air advecting in is providing for marginal instability
moving in. Updrafts will not be very strong with thin CAPE profiles
in the forecast soundings. Shear is not very good either, so we
expect these to remain rather tame.

We will gradually see remaining showers rotate out of the area
tonight as the low moves east of the area. Winds in the lower levels
will be rather limited. The moist air mass and lighter winds will
likely allow for fog across the area.

We have chance for rain tapering off from south to north mainly
Monday night, however we are expecting the rain to be mainly south
of i-96. There is even a decent chance it could entirely stay near
or even south of i-94. The final answer will depend on how far south
the front ends up before the wave arrives and rides along the
front.

Once the wave moves by early tue, we are looking at improving
conditions. Skies will slowly clear on tue, with seasonable temps
returning with the sunshine.

Long term (Wednesday through Sunday)
issued at 300 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017
thanks to our extended east asian jet feature (continues through
next week and well beyond that) we will continue to see a split flow
over north america. The northern stream jet for the most part will
be well north in canada and that will not allow much of the really
cold air south into the great lakes (i can not forecast snow). On
the other hand the active southern stream will also prevent any
prolonged period of warmer than normal temperature either. What
this will mean is about every three days we get a major southern
stream shortwave to come through our area. That will bring gulf
moisture north and this suggests significant rainfall each time too.

Since these systems are progressive, I would not expect any major
flooding issues.

Our next system in this wave train will be in the thu/fri time
frame. The ECMWF has been very consistent with this, in every run
since the 22nd at 12z it has had precipitation with this system over
all of lower michigan and the 12z run today is no exception. On the
other hand the GFS has been all over the place with this and the
gfsx has not been much different than the gfs. I will say the
ensemble mean of the GFS has been wetter over michigan so that helps
the cause for believability that we will see rain from this system
late in the week over southwest michigan. At this point, just like
with the current system we do not really get deep into the warm air
so the thunderstorm threat seems low (could be elevated storms like
we got with this one). This far out in time, just when it actually
rains is an issue but it would seem any time between Thu and fri
looks good now. By the way the next event will be the following
Tuesday (plus or minus a day or two).

As we have been writing, temperatures will for the most part be near
normal.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 754 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017
a difficult TAF forecast. First off there will be the risk of
isolated thunderstorms reaching up to i-94 for the next couple of
hours. Then the instability wanes and no thunderstorms are
expected from 02z onward.

Also difficult is the wide variety of conditions that exist
across the region. Mostly ifr or MVFR over the i-96 region, to a
mix ofVFR and MVFR toward i-94. Expecting a downward trend
everywhere with ifr or even lifr developing overnight. This will
likely extend into Monday morning. It is expected that we will
trend back to MVFR or evenVFR by early to mid afternoon at most
taf site.

Marine
Issued at 300 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017
no marine headlines expected for the next few days as winds should
remain at or below 20 knots. Typical stabilizing effects of the cold
water and warmer march temps should also limit wave generation.

Hydrology
Issued at 300 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017
rainfall totals over the last couple days have ranged from a quarter
inch across western reaches of the muskegon and grand river basins
to a swath of 1 to 2 inches across central and eastern stretches of
the grand river basin as well as central and western reaches of the
kalamazoo river basin. Rises on area rivers are occurring, though
most should hold within banks. Some exceptions will be at ionia,
hastings, eagle, and holt where minor flooding may impact areas
adjacent to the river banks.

Additional rainfall later this upcoming week will likely hold many
rivers at higher than normal levels.

Grr watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Njj
short term... Njj
long term... Wdm
aviation... Jk
hydrology... Hoving
marine... Njj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 12 mi42 min ESE 5.1 G 7 48°F 46°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 20 mi62 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 47°F 1011.2 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 33 mi122 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 46°F 1011.2 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 39 mi32 min E 8 G 8 49°F 1010.8 hPa48°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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E12
G17
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NE4
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NE2
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N7
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G12
NE8
G12

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI12 mi48 minESE 31.00 miFog/Mist46°F46°F100%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE15
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E9E9E8E6E8E7E7E8E8E8
G15
E6E6E8SE7E4SE6SE8SE4E5SE4SE4
1 day agoNE8NE6NE8
G14
NE5NE6NE6NE6NE5NE7E8
G14
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2 days agoS6S7CalmSE7
G15
SE9S4S5SW9
G17
S7S7SW7S7S5SW12SW8SW7NW8N9N9N7CalmN10N8
G16
NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.