Wednesday, December13, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pentwater, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:07AMSunset 5:11PM Wednesday December 13, 2017 5:51 AM EST (10:51 UTC) Moonrise 3:29AMMoonset 2:54PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 358 Am Est Wed Dec 13 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..Southeast winds to 30 knots backing east 15 to 25 knots late in the day. Snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..North winds to 30 knots. Snow likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening, then snow showers likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ848 Expires:201712131615;;819532 FZUS53 KGRR 130858 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 358 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ848-131615-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pentwater, MI
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location: 43.78, -86.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 130830
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
330 am est Wed dec 13 2017
latest update...

synopsis short term long term marine

Synopsis
Issued at 330 am est Wed dec 13 2017
a fast moving clipper system will pivot through the southern great
lakes today moving from southeast minnesota this morning to portions
of northern ohio this evening. A swath of accumulating snow is
expected across the southwest quarter of lower michigan today and
this evening. The lowest accumulations will be in the far southwest
towards south haven and kalamazoo where 2 to 4 inches may fall by
midnight. Further north a swath of 5 to 8 inches is expected along
and north of interstate 96. The heaviest snow will likely fall along
a line from pentwater southeast towards alma and st. Johns. A period
of quieter weather is expected from late tonight through Thursday.

Another period of snow is expected from late Thursday night into
Friday with an enhancement off the lake.

Short term (today through Friday)
issued at 330 am est Wed dec 13 2017
made changes to the going headlines based on latest model guidance
and coordination with apx, dtx and iwx. Latest model trends show the
swath of heavier snow to be in a corridor along and potentially
north of interstate 96. Therefore, dropped the warning that was in
place from ottawa south down the lakeshore. The feeling is the
heaviest swath will likely be on a line from oceana county towards
gratiot and clinton counties. Expecting a quick hitting 5 to 8
inches today, where snow rates may reach an inch an hour this
afternoon. The evening commute will be the most impacted by falling
snow, slippery travel and limited visibilities.

The models show the 850mb low traversing far southwest lower
michigan where the precipitation will be hit and miss at times down
towards south haven. Strong isentropic lift is noted on the north
side of the low in the warning area. A well defined cross hairs
signature can be seen as well in some of the bufkit overviews with
significant lift in the dgz. The snow will wind down this evening
and come to an end by midnight.

A lull in the activity is expected from late tonight through
Thursday. The lull will be short lived though as another lake
enhanced event is taking shape for late Thursday night and Friday.

Several inches of accumulation will be possible across western lower
michigan.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 330 am est Wed dec 13 2017
a pattern shift still appears in order by the weekend and lasting
into the middle of next week. Temps won't be as cold, and pcpn
won't be as frequent or steady.

Friday night will continue to see lake effect snows as inversion
heights remain high with a wnw flow. However h8 temps climb into
Saturday and the lake effect will dwindle. The warming aloft will
result as a warm front forms near the mi in border, and the upper
flow becomes more zonal.

A cold front and mid level short wave will move in by Sunday
afternoon and evening. This will bring a period of snow across the
cwa, possibly mixed with rain along and south of i-96. But overall
the pcpn appears light. Behind the front Monday and Tuesday only
appears slightly cooler, but still not cold enough for lake effect.

The models show additional weak short waves coming through
Monday Tuesday with varying timing. This is enough to keep low pops
in. Tuesday's wave appears a bit stronger so will have slightly
higher pops then.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1222 am est Wed dec 13 2017
the lake effect snow showers will continue to diminish, however
as they move inland there could be a brief period of ifr at mkg
and grr.

Then a clipper approaches toward daybreak. The steadiest snow is
expected to be from i-96 northward. This leads to mkg, grr and lan
feeling the most impact as compared to the i-94 TAF sites. This
will be a prolong snow. Periods of ifr can be expected along i-96
from about 14z to 00z. Meanwhile it now seems that the i-94 tafs
may only should only see brief periods of ifr mainly in the
afternoon.

After 00z the snow will let up and all areas return toVFR or
MVFR.

Marine
Issued at 330 am est Wed dec 13 2017
winds and waves will pose a hazard to small craft into this evening.

Low pressure will move southeast across southern lake michigan
today. The result will be stronger south winds this morning, turning
north tonight. The wave field will likely fill into our nearshore
marine zones, but the highest waves will be over the open waters. A
weaker wind field will be in place on Thursday.

Hydrology
Issued at 1028 am est Tue dec 12 2017
rivers are running near normal levels. No flooding or significant
rises in river levels are expected. Snow is forecast periodically
through the week.

Temperatures have been around to below freezing for a week and
similar temperatures are expected to persist through the end of this
week. This should allow some ice to begin forming on area rivers,
especially on the muskegon river in central lower michigan.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory from 7 am this morning to 11 pm est this
evening for miz039-040-056-064-065-071>074.

Winter storm warning from 7 am this morning to 11 pm est this
evening for miz037-038-043>046-050>052-057>059-066-067.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Duke
short term... Duke
long term... Jk
aviation... Jk
hydrology... 63
marine... Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 12 mi52 min ESE 5.1 G 8 19°F 12°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 20 mi72 min ESE 4.1 G 8 21°F 1008.1 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 33 mi72 min SSE 7 G 8.9 19°F 1007.8 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 39 mi42 min SSE 5.1 G 6 19°F 1009.7 hPa14°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI12 mi57 minSE 510.00 miLight Snow18°F13°F81%1007.1 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW15
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N6NW5NW4NW3N3CalmCalmCalmE3SE4SE4
1 day agoSE4SE5SE7SE6SE6SE8SE8SE6SE3SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmN10
G15
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2 days agoW5W7W5W9W7NW4NW5NW5NW6NW6N5NW5NW4N7N4N6N6CalmN7N4CalmE4SE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.