Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pentwater, MI
April 23, 2024 8:22 AM EDT (12:22 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:47 AM Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 7:42 PM Moonset 5:33 AM |
LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 806 Am Edt Tue Apr 23 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening - .
Today - Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Tonight - Northwest winds to 30 knots veering north gales to 35 knots late at night, then decreasing to 30 knots toward daybreak. Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
Wednesday - North winds to 30 knots. Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Wednesday night - North winds 10 to 20 knots veering southeast toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering south. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday - South winds to 30 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 231137 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 737 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers Early this Morning; Marginal Severe Risk Expanded
- Frost/Freeze Risk Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning
- Warmer and unsettled weather moves in for the weekend
DISCUSSION
Issued at 357 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024
- Showers Early this Morning; Marginal Severe Risk Expanded
Showers out ahead of the incoming short wave will continue to spread over the region early this morning. The dry air at the surface delayed the onset of precipitation, however scattered showers continue to spread over the region and will continue through the first half of the morning. Coinciding with this short wave will be a strong low level jet. Winds upwards of 35 mph will be possible through the early morning hours. The 925 mb winds should become more amplified with more directional shear from the 850 and 700 mb layers. Looking at BUFKIT soundings CAMS have a weak capping inversion from 2,500 to 4KFT this afternoon. If this is breached, the steep low to mid level lapse rates of 7 to 9 C/KM should greatly aid in convection.
Couple those lapse rates, the strong shear from the LLJ and the cold air aloft and there is a decent chance for severe hail.
Latest mesoscale analysis has decent DCAPE moving into the region.
Given that, SPC has expanded the marginal risk for severe storms for across the region this afternoon. Timing wise, latest CAMS brings the best opportunity for strongest convection will be late in the day associated with the cold front, around 00Z. A secondary LLJ is associated with that boundary as well, though it is weaker then the one moving through this morning.
- Frost/Freeze Risk Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning
Clearing skies under surface high pressure and very dry air at the lower levels will create favorable conditions for radiational cooling Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures will likely drop into the upper 20s across a wide swath of southern Lower Michigan. The coldest temperatures will probably in the northeast counties where mid 20s can't be ruled out. The good news is that the trend of a slightly warmer airmass at 850 mb continues with recent model runs.
- Warmer and unsettled weather moves in for the weekend
As this final blast of cold air departs the area, a reorientation of the longwave pattern will move into the central CONUS, setting Michigan up initially on the "sunny" side of a building upper ridge, but by Friday afternoon the ridge axis will have passed us and we'll fall into several days of deep southwesterly flow.
This pattern will allow much warmer and more humid air to stream into our state, along with fairly plentiful cloudiness. At least 2 major disturbances/shortwaves will move through this southwest flow, and bring rounds of rain and possibly storms beginning Friday night and continuing all weekend. It's unlikely the whole weekend will be a washout, but the exact timing and placement of these shortwaves are still pretty uncertain at this time, so some of the more pertinent forecast details remain elusive. Instability and the risk of possible severe weather will be monitored over the coming days, as breaks of sunshine during the day followed by one of these shortwaves coming through near peak heating could easily result in a severe threat.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 729 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Initial batch of showers has underwhelmed as it came through, due in part to the dry air at the lower levels that had to be overcome. Rain has been minimal and ceilings have stayed well into VFR category overnight and this morning. We should see a break in the showers over most of the area for a good chunk of the morning and early afternoon - and may even see a few breaks of sun.
Exception is Jackson, where clouds and showers might hang on throughout much of the day without much break. Elsewhere, showers and a few storms are expected to develop mid afternoon and move through the area until mid evening, at which point the winds start to switch to more of a northwesterly direction as a cold front passes. Model guidance is suggesting development of an MVFR ceiling overnight into Wednesday morning, but cold air advection should limit the potential for things to get much worse/lower than that.
MARINE
Issued at 403 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024
An active/hazardous period on Lake Michigan will continue through Wednesday. Gusty winds will continue with southerly flow this morning. Winds will briefly slacken over the lake this afternoon.
However winds will shift to the north to 30 kts behind the front tonight into Wednesday. Though the small craft remains, there is still a chance for brief periods of gales. Hazardous winds and waves should subside Wednesday night into Thursday as a sfc ridge builds overhead
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 737 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers Early this Morning; Marginal Severe Risk Expanded
- Frost/Freeze Risk Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning
- Warmer and unsettled weather moves in for the weekend
DISCUSSION
Issued at 357 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024
- Showers Early this Morning; Marginal Severe Risk Expanded
Showers out ahead of the incoming short wave will continue to spread over the region early this morning. The dry air at the surface delayed the onset of precipitation, however scattered showers continue to spread over the region and will continue through the first half of the morning. Coinciding with this short wave will be a strong low level jet. Winds upwards of 35 mph will be possible through the early morning hours. The 925 mb winds should become more amplified with more directional shear from the 850 and 700 mb layers. Looking at BUFKIT soundings CAMS have a weak capping inversion from 2,500 to 4KFT this afternoon. If this is breached, the steep low to mid level lapse rates of 7 to 9 C/KM should greatly aid in convection.
Couple those lapse rates, the strong shear from the LLJ and the cold air aloft and there is a decent chance for severe hail.
Latest mesoscale analysis has decent DCAPE moving into the region.
Given that, SPC has expanded the marginal risk for severe storms for across the region this afternoon. Timing wise, latest CAMS brings the best opportunity for strongest convection will be late in the day associated with the cold front, around 00Z. A secondary LLJ is associated with that boundary as well, though it is weaker then the one moving through this morning.
- Frost/Freeze Risk Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning
Clearing skies under surface high pressure and very dry air at the lower levels will create favorable conditions for radiational cooling Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures will likely drop into the upper 20s across a wide swath of southern Lower Michigan. The coldest temperatures will probably in the northeast counties where mid 20s can't be ruled out. The good news is that the trend of a slightly warmer airmass at 850 mb continues with recent model runs.
- Warmer and unsettled weather moves in for the weekend
As this final blast of cold air departs the area, a reorientation of the longwave pattern will move into the central CONUS, setting Michigan up initially on the "sunny" side of a building upper ridge, but by Friday afternoon the ridge axis will have passed us and we'll fall into several days of deep southwesterly flow.
This pattern will allow much warmer and more humid air to stream into our state, along with fairly plentiful cloudiness. At least 2 major disturbances/shortwaves will move through this southwest flow, and bring rounds of rain and possibly storms beginning Friday night and continuing all weekend. It's unlikely the whole weekend will be a washout, but the exact timing and placement of these shortwaves are still pretty uncertain at this time, so some of the more pertinent forecast details remain elusive. Instability and the risk of possible severe weather will be monitored over the coming days, as breaks of sunshine during the day followed by one of these shortwaves coming through near peak heating could easily result in a severe threat.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 729 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Initial batch of showers has underwhelmed as it came through, due in part to the dry air at the lower levels that had to be overcome. Rain has been minimal and ceilings have stayed well into VFR category overnight and this morning. We should see a break in the showers over most of the area for a good chunk of the morning and early afternoon - and may even see a few breaks of sun.
Exception is Jackson, where clouds and showers might hang on throughout much of the day without much break. Elsewhere, showers and a few storms are expected to develop mid afternoon and move through the area until mid evening, at which point the winds start to switch to more of a northwesterly direction as a cold front passes. Model guidance is suggesting development of an MVFR ceiling overnight into Wednesday morning, but cold air advection should limit the potential for things to get much worse/lower than that.
MARINE
Issued at 403 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024
An active/hazardous period on Lake Michigan will continue through Wednesday. Gusty winds will continue with southerly flow this morning. Winds will briefly slacken over the lake this afternoon.
However winds will shift to the north to 30 kts behind the front tonight into Wednesday. Though the small craft remains, there is still a chance for brief periods of gales. Hazardous winds and waves should subside Wednesday night into Thursday as a sfc ridge builds overhead
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI | 12 mi | 64 min | S 15G | 50°F | 39°F | |||
| BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI | 20 mi | 42 min | S 18G | 47°F | 29.67 | |||
| MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI | 33 mi | 42 min | SSE 2.9G | 52°F | ||||
| MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI | 38 mi | 52 min | S 22G | 48°F | 29.70 | 41°F | ||
| 45161 | 41 mi | 42 min | 5 ft |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLDM MASON COUNTY,MI | 12 sm | 27 min | SSW 15G21 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 52°F | 37°F | 58% | 29.65 |
Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,
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