Sunday, June24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pentwater, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 9:30PM Sunday June 24, 2018 1:06 AM EDT (05:06 UTC) Moonrise 5:16PMMoonset 2:59AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Patchy fog overnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. A slight chance of rain showers until midday. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots veering east after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ848 Expires:201806240915;;013403 FZUS53 KGRR 240202 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1002 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ848-240915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pentwater, MI
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location: 43.78, -86.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 240350
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1150 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 1223 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
locally heavy rainfall is possible late tonight primarily near
route 10. Not all areas will get rain tonight. A few leftover
showers are possible on Sunday, then dry conditions should prevail
Monday. Unsettled weather looks likely Tuesday into early
Wednesday with some showers and thunderstorms moving into the
region. Heat may build back into the area by the end of the week
and weekend.

Short term (this evening through Monday night)
issued at 329 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
the challenge tonight is the potential for heavy rain over our
northern CWA from around midnight until around 9 am Sunday. After
that we get a push of canadian polar air that will clear the sky
and provide a one more day of cooler than normal temperatures.

I am concerned about the potential for heavy rainfall tonight
(mostly after midnight) over our northern cwa. This is one of
those trowal lift event sort of rainfalls. A upper wave, that is
currently over iowa, tracks east and as it comes under the
northern stream system, tried to close off at mid levels. That
results in an area of isentropic ascent between muskegon and
frankfort. The precipitable water values are around 1.5 inches
which is on the high side of normal but not extreme. Model sounds
are classic for heavy rain through, saturated from the near the
surface to over 500 mb with weak CAPE through a deep layer. The
1000 850 moisture transport is not extreme but it does show the a
signature over our northern cwa. All of the hi-res models have
been showing this all shift today. The href has as much as 5" in
places and all of the other hi-res have areas of 1 to 2 inches
between midnight and about 9 am. So I have increased the QPF to
around an inch up north and coordinated with wpc and apx on this
event. I would expect some localized flooding Sunday morning.

Once this system moves out we get a push of canadian polar air
Sunday night into Monday. We could see some afternoon convection
Sunday afternoon inland. After that skies should clear at night
and remain mostly clear Monday. It will be cool with highs in the
70s.

Long term (Tuesday through Saturday)
issued at 329 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
there are 2 main weather stories in the long term. The first the the
threat of shower and thunderstorms during the Tuesday-Wednesday time
frame and the second being the developing heat late in the work week
into the weekend.

The upper low currently in the northern rockies will spin east and
move into wisconsin on Tuesday and through michigan on Wednesday.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist with this system
from Monday night through Wednesday. Pwat values will be rather high
as a southerly flow off of the gulf will be drawn northward. The gfs
has pwat values in the 1.50 to 2.00 inch range through this period,
so heavy rain is certainly likely. Severe storms are possible from
Tuesday into Tuesday night as a mid level jet core rotates through
the area on the south side of the upper low.

The showers and storms will move east on Wednesday and leave mainly
dry weather through the end of the work week into next weekend. A
building ridge overhead will bring increasing heat. 90s is looking
more and more likely in the Friday and Saturday time frame. 850mb
temps rise into the 21 to 23c range which should ensure 90s. The gfs
even has 850mb temps to 24-25c. If we actually got that warm that
could bring triple digit heat into play. A long way to go yet, but
gfs and ECMWF mos temps are nudging upward. Bottom line, its going
to get hot.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1145 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
a mix of MVFRVFR conditions will continue overnight with MVFR due
to low clouds. Ifr lifr conditions are also possible overnight
into Sunday morning mainly at kmkg where conditions remain lifr at
the moment. Some showers will also redevelop overnight and Sunday
but the relatively best chance for those will be north of all the
terminals. Conditions will slowly improve to MVFR and thenVFR
Sunday afternoon and evening.

Marine
Issued at 329 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
no threat of strong winds or high waves over the next 2 days. This
is expected to change Tuesday.

Hydrology
Issued at 1223 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
with locally heavy rainfall over the last 24 hours, most
locations along the kalamazoo river are running near to above
normal for late june. The grand river basin is running mainly near
normal, with the muskegon river running near normal. Expected
rainfall over the next 24 hours will be highest across the
muskegon river basin, where flows are lower with respect to normal
than other basins. Flooding is not expected.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, precipitable water values surge toward
the 1.8"-2.0" range. Any convection that develops could produce
locally heavy rainfall once again. Areas that currently have
saturated soils due to significant rains in recent days may be
prone to localized flooding if storms materialize.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Hoving
short term... Wdm
long term... Duke
aviation... Laurens
hydrology... Hoving
marine... Wdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 12 mi48 min WNW 2.9 G 6 61°F 58°F
45024 15 mi36 min WNW 12 G 14 60°F 64°F1 ft1010.7 hPa60°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 20 mi86 min N 4.1 G 7 61°F 1009.5 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 39 mi36 min NW 8 G 8.9 60°F 1008.8 hPa60°F
45161 42 mi46 min WNW 5.8 G 9.7 58°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI12 mi71 minN 010.00 miOvercast62°F59°F93%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N5N5N6NE5NW9NW7NW10NW8NW7NW4N6CalmNW3CalmN3Calm
1 day agoE6E8E5E5E4E4E5E5E7E5E6NE4E10
G15
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E9E6E10E6NE4N3NE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E6E7E9SE8E6E12
G19
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G15
E7E6E10E7E7E4E6E7E7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.