Tuesday, February20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brunswick Station, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 5:18PM Tuesday February 20, 2018 10:42 AM EST (15:42 UTC) Moonrise 10:04AMMoonset 11:23PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 955 Am Est Tue Feb 20 2018
Today..SW winds up to 10 kt, becoming se this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain this morning, then a slight chance of showers this afternoon. Patchy dense fog this morning, then areas of dense fog this afternoon. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm this morning.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain and snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain and snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ100 955 Am Est Tue Feb 20 2018
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure east of the waters will produce southwesterly flow today. A warm front will approach from the south today and lift north of the waters Wednesday. A cold front will cross the waters Wednesday evening and stall south of the waters Thursday. High pressure crosses the waters on Friday, followed by weak low pressure Friday night. High pressure builds north of the waters Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brunswick Station, ME
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location: 43.79, -69.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 201453
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
953 am est Tue feb 20 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will cross the region from south to north today. A
cold front will cross the region late Wednesday, and stall south
of the area Thursday. High pressure build in for Friday. A
series of waves moves across the area this weekend with light
rain or snow possible, although the most significant will move
through Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
10am update: primary changes this hour are to continue to
mention patchy dense fog for most areas outside of southeastern
nh that has broken into the warm sector. Issued another sps to
highlight this fog potential. Otherwise... Temperatures north of
the front are running behind previous forecast and have lowered
in line with recent high resolution consensus.

6am update: a few areas of dense fog now being reported as the
sun rises. Have issued an sps and updated to include patchy
dense fog for the next few hours.

Overview: high pressure off to our east will continue to
generate southwesterly flow pushing unseasonably warm air into
the region through the next several days.

Today:band of light showers associated with a warm front will
continue to life north through the area this morning.

Temperatures have climbed to the freezing point across the
entire region and so the remaining winter weather advisory has
been dropped with this forecast update.

Temperatures will continue to warm throughout the day, reaching the
60s across southern new hampshire. In maine it will not warm up
quite as much. Along the coast this is due to the flow coming off
the cold ocean water. Interior maine will also remain in the 40s as
the current cold air will be slow to make it out of the region.

While shower activity will lift northwards some clouds will
remain for much of the day, especially along the coast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Overnight expect just a slight drop in temperatures as the overall
warm advection continues. With dewpoints in the 40s moving over the
snowpack fog will be widespread across the region, and dense fog is
possible.

Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week as the bulk of the
warm air moves into the region. This anomalous air mass is forecast
to reach near record levels. Daily records for our climate sites
appear below. Have gone with high temps at daily record levels for
all three locations, but stopped short of the all time february high
temp records which are just a few degrees higher. These temperatures
will certainly be a refreshing break from winter, and most locations
have not seen 60f since early november.

While confidence is high for these record temperatures across new
hampshire and interior western maine, the midcoast is not going to
be as warm and is a much lower confidence forecast. Our ocean
temperatures continue to run near 40 degrees which will limit the
high temperatures coastward of rt 1 from portland east. Despite the
trend through the day towards a more westerly wind a slight sea
breeze is likely to take hold keeping the immediate coast in
onshore flow. Another consideration is sunshine. Forecast
soundings for rkd continue to show a marine layer remaining
through the day. Without a break in the fog these locations may
struggle to reach the upper 40s let along 50.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
A quick look at the 500 mb pattern across noam and vicinity
shows some flattening of the strong WRN atlantic ridge late
this week, moving the more active part of the jet over the cwa
late this week into the weekend. Temps will moderate back closer
to normal, but should still trend on the warm side of normal.

This active flow will also produce several waves, making for an
unsettled period, with the chance of some rain or snow. This
should mostly be light, but some areas could see several inches
in wave that moves through on Sunday.

For Wed night, front will be exiting the CWA during the evening,
with temps dropping from their near record warm on Wednesday. A
few showers may be possible in the evening over the north, but
for the most part this front looks dry. Overnight lows will
still be mild for late feb, generally in the low to mid 20s n,
to the low to mid 30s s.

On thu, the front briefly stalls to our south, as a weak wave
moves along it, this will keep some clouds in the southern half
of the CWA with an outside chance of some showers , and also
prevent the core of colder air from moving south into the cwa.

So, with w_nw winds downsloping will allow for highs in the low
40s in southern nh and the me coast, with generally mid to upper
30s elsewhere. Sfc high builds over the nrn CWA Thu night into
fri, and the 500mb ridge nudges back to the n, so look for
partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the 30s to low 40s.

The weekend will see two fast-moving wave move thru, the first
will be Fri night, and the second Sunday into Sunday evening.

The first wave look like it could bring some shra shsn to the
region, although the best chance will be in the NRN zones, and
any snow accums will be light. The second which will move in
Sunday, looks a little bit more impressive, although still not
strong, but could produce a period of snow to rain near the
coast, and a few inches of snow in the north. Saturday will be
mild with highs mostly in the 40s, although cooler near the intl
border, and Sunday will see highs closer to normal generally in
the 30s.

Aviation 15z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term... Widely varying conditions out there tonight as
showers and moist air over snow create low ceilings and fog
across the region. Lifr will continue along the coast through
daybreak with scattered ifr and MVFR in the interior. Conditions
will improve slightly to MVFR today before once again seeing
dense fog and ifr to lifr overnight tonight. Tuesday will beVFR
for all but the midcoast where onshore flow will keep low
ceilings around through the day.

Vfr conditions across the region will come to an
end late this evening as increasing clouds and showers move in
and a warm front enters the region. Increasing dewpoints over
the snowpack will result in fog overnight dropping conditions to
ifr and locally lifr across the region. Tuesday will have a
gradual improvement for all but the immediate coastline where
ifr in low ceilings may remain throughout the day. Fog becomes
widespread once again Tuesday night.

Long term... MainlyVFR Wed night into Friday. Some MVFR to ifr may
be possible Fri night in shra shsn.

Marine
Short term... A south to southwest flow will continue over the
region through Wednesday. While winds have subsided, seas remain
near 5ft on the outer waters and scas continue for this region.

Long term... A brief period of NW SCA level winds seas possible
wed night, but otherwise winds and seas should stay below sca
levels into Saturday.

Hydrology
Have issued a flood watch for the potential for ice jam flooding.

While total QPF amounts with these showers remain small the warm
temperatures will begin to melt off the snowpack, and snowpack
density analysis through the southern portion of the area
supports the runoff. While the melt won't be enough to cause
flooding on its own, forecast hydrographs suggest the potential
for enough rise to move ice. With several ice jams already in
place the concern for ice jam flooding is increased and thus a
flood watch has been issued for western new hampshire where the
combination of temperatures, qpf, and existing ice jams coexist.

Further south in nh little snowpack and river ice remains while
across maine temperatures remain lower, especially through the
headwaters and less runoff is expected so no flood watch is
needed.

Climate
Record high temperatures are expected across the region on
Wednesday.

*** february 21 records temperatures***
portland concord augusta
59f - 1953 64f - 1872 52f - 1981
***warmest february temperatures***
portland concord augusta
64f - feb 26, 1957 69f - feb 24, 2017 60f - feb 18, 1981

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... Flood watch through Wednesday evening for nhz001>003-005-007.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm est this afternoon for anz150-
152-154.

Near term... Arnott


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 21 mi43 min 40°F 38°F1024.6 hPa (+0.7)
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 23 mi53 min N 7.8 G 9.7 40°F 40°F4 ft1024.1 hPa (+0.7)40°F
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 29 mi99 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 40°F 5 ft1024 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 47 mi43 min N 2.9 44°F 44°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 48 mi43 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 44°F 39°F1024.1 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wiscasset Airport, ME15 mi50 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist41°F41°F100%1025 hPa
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME24 mi52 minNE 32.50 miFog/Mist41°F41°F100%1024.5 hPa

Wind History from IWI (wind in knots)
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SW8S6S8SW8S9SW6SW7SW8SW4SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day ago55--5544CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4S7
2 days ago353SW5S6S6S4--S4S8S56S10S8S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm433

Tide / Current Tables for Cundy Harbor, New Meadows River, Maine
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Cundy Harbor
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:35 AM EST     9.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:30 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:42 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:04 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:55 PM EST     9.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:16 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:03 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:22 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.89.19.28.36.54.11.80.40.112.757.28.89.38.67.14.92.50.7-00.524.1

Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:31 AM EST     1.05 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:30 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:34 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:47 AM EST     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:03 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:44 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:51 PM EST     0.98 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:15 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:45 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:08 PM EST     -0.98 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:22 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.6110.80.50.3-0.2-0.8-0.9-0.6-0.20.10.50.810.80.50.3-0.1-0.7-1-0.8-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.