Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Boothbay Harbor, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:31PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 2:02 PM EST (19:02 UTC) Moonrise 7:41AMMoonset 5:18PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ152 Coastal Waters From Port Clyde, Me To Cape Elizabeth, Me Out 25 Nm- 1155 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 8 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of snow in the evening, then snow after midnight.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain, snow.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of snow or rain in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
ANZ100 1155 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure remains to the north today. Low pressure develops off the mid atlantic coast later today then moves northeast through the gulf of maine Wednesday. High pressure builds south of the waters Thursday and into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boothbay Harbor, ME
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location: 43.84, -69.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 161705
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
1205 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will develop off the mid atlantic coast today then
intensify as it moves northeast through the gulf of maine Wednesday.

High pressure builds eastward into the region late in the week and
into the weekend with a return southwest flow bringing warmer
temperatures by the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
1155 am update: have upgraded the winter weather advisories to
winter storm warnings along and adjacent to the coast of maine.

In nh upgraded the area of winter weather advisories over south
central nh to winter storm warnings as well. Enough 12z model
guidance to have high confidence on forecasting higher QPF and
snowfall amounts across the warning areas. Models still suggest
heaviest amounts to be near or along the coast. No other
changes at this time.

1030am update: made some adjustments to sky cover since clear
skies currently over much of the maine portion of the forecast
area. Over nh clouds have already spread in from the west. The
usual minor tweaks to temp dewpoint forecast also for the late
morning hours based on latest obs.

As far as thinking toward upcoming storm. Euro model continues
to show great continuity for track and speed along with its qpf.

This track brings the surface low inside the benchmark of
40n 70w and then tracks parallel to just off the me nh coast
wed. Latest NAM also coming more in line with euro. Latest
thinking is that we may need to increase snow amounts in the
afternoon package as well as upgrading some headlines along and
near the coast. Will wait for a look at 12z euro run before
making final determination.

630 am... Updated grids to better reflect surface conditions,
but this was mostly minor stuff. A little bit of light snow was
noted in SW me, but vis was barely being affected, and it looks
like its in advance of a weak boundary not far above the
surface, which is moving through ATTM and shutting it down.

Previously... Sfc high builds a little across the region today,
and will help stave off WAA to our west. It'll be mostly cloudy,
but any precip associated with that WAA will likely be limited
to NRN nh and perhaps the ct vly this afternoon, and it will be
light. Highs will range from the low 20s in the mtns, to the
upper 30s near the coast and in SRN nh, as flow shifts to sw.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Sfc low will develop S of long island late today and track ne
thru the gulf of me. This low forms as some energy lifts out
the base 500 mb trough to our se. The 00z models have shifted
the track of the sfc a little further south, and this has
shifted highest forecast QPF a little further south as well,
with ws warnings for the SRN tier of nh counties, and advisories
in all the rest of the CWA except the far NRN zones. Expect snow
to break out from west to east this evening through the the
pre dawn. Snow should be lighter at the outset, but will begin
to become moderate to heavy, especially over SRN nh toward
daybreak. Overnight lows will only fall a few degrees off highs
today and generally be in the 15 to 25 range.

The bulk of the snow will fall between 09-21z, arriving earliest
in this range in nh and later in me. There still are some
concerns as far as confidence GOES with the forecast. First is
the wave is stuck in a positively trough, and dynamic forcing is
on the weaker side. However, thermal circulations do produce
quite the frontogenetical forcing in the mid lvls between 12-18z
Wednesday, and this will likely produce a decent band of heavier
snow. The euro puts the core of that band just S and E of the
cwa, and that may leave the heaviest snow out of the cwa, but
the best chc will be in SRN nh, where 6 inches or so is a good
bet at this point. If that bands shifts back to the N and w,
then we may have to upgrade to warnings into coastal me. Also,
the sfc low does begin a surge of intensification as it passes
to our south, and this may bring some heavier snowfall to the
mid-coast. Temps will peak in the mid-upper 20s in the north
and into the low 30s in the south. The mid-coast could see some
readings near 35, and some rain is possible her, but probably
not until after most of the snow has fallen already.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
The deterministic model solutions remain in decent agreement on
the long wave pattern through the upcoming weekend and into early
next week. Pacific energy breaks down the western CONUS ridge
early in the period and eventually the downstream upper trough
across the eastern conus. This will temporarily cutoff the supply
of arctic air to our region and lead to temperatures rebounding
above normal for much of the upcoming forecast period. However... There
continue to be signs in the models that suggest the western conus
ridge may begin to rebuild towards d+10. So... This next warmup
may be prove to be fleeting in nature. In the dailies... We begin
the period with a upper trough axis draped across the
appalachians that weakens and exits the coast by Thursday. At
the surface... A weak coastal low exits into the maritimes by
early Thursday. A second low develops off the carolina coast
along the trailing cold front and passes well offshore to our
east late Thursday and Thursday night. Rising heights and high
pressure building to our south will introduce well above normal
temperatures into the region for Friday and the upcoming
weekend.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
Short term... MVFR CIGS this morning should improve toVFR, but
not by much, today, before conds fall back to ifr in sn late
this evening into Wednesday.

Long term...

wed night... Areas of MVFR in lingering -shsn.

Thu... Sct MVFR in mtn -shsn. W sfc wnd gusting to 25 kt.

Fri... Sct MVFR in mtn -shsn.

Marine
Short term... Still seeing swell generated from the coastal storm
that passed off shore earlier today, despite winds dropping.

Seas would remain in the 5-7 ft range in the open waters this
morning before slowly subsiding this afternoon.

Long term...

thu - fri... Small craft conditions are possible outside the bays.

Sat... Gales are possible... With small crafts for the bays.

Hydrology
All rivers but the kennebec at aug have fallen below flood
stage, but ice jams have frozen into place in some areas, and
rivers need to be monitored as these jams could move without
notice.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Winter weather advisory from 11 pm this evening to 7 pm est
Wednesday for mez012>014.

Winter storm warning from 11 pm this evening to 7 pm est
Wednesday for mez018>028.

Nh... Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 4 pm est
Wednesday for nhz003>007.

Winter storm warning from 7 pm this evening to 4 pm est
Wednesday for nhz008>015.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 8 pm est this
evening for anz150-152-154.

Near term... Marine
short term... Marine
long term... Ekster


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 17 mi119 min WNW 1.9 G 5.8 24°F 5 ft1031.6 hPa
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 34 mi73 min N 1.9 G 3.9 24°F 41°F5 ft1032.1 hPa (-2.1)19°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 35 mi45 min 24°F 34°F1031.7 hPa
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 37 mi119 min S 1.9 G 3.9 20°F 35°F2 ft
MISM1 - Matinicus Rock, ME 42 mi63 min W 6 G 7 24°F 1031.2 hPa (-2.0)19°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wiscasset Airport, ME8 mi70 minN 010.00 miOvercast23°F12°F63%1032.3 hPa

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Last 24hr55464443435N4434Calm3CalmCalmCalm34Calm5
1 day ago3NW5CalmCalmCalm3Calm333N45Calm4433344N54N83
2 days ago6--3NW8NW95
G16
5NW734Calm4Calm3CalmCalmCalm34CalmN7W544

Tide / Current Tables for Boothbay Harbor, Maine
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Boothbay Harbor
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Tue -- 04:21 AM EST     0.91 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:36 AM EST     9.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:17 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:56 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 11:09 PM EST     8.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.15.33.41.811.12.34.26.38.19.19.28.36.441.90.4-00.62.14.26.27.68.2

Tide / Current Tables for Lowe Point (northeast of), Sasanoa River, Maine Current
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Lowe Point (northeast of)
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:09 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:11 AM EST     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:01 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:26 AM EST     1.48 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:21 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:40 PM EST     -1.90 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:18 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:48 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:07 PM EST     1.26 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 10:00 PM EST     1.24 knots Min Flood
Tue -- 10:38 PM EST     1.25 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-0.9-1.4-1.3-1.1-0.8-00.91.41.41.41.20.4-0.8-1.7-1.9-1.6-1.4-0.80.211.31.21.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.