Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waldoboro, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 4:15PM Thursday November 15, 2018 1:29 PM EST (18:29 UTC) Moonrise 1:51PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ150 Coastal Waters From Stonington, Me To Port Clyde, Me Out 25 Nm- 1100 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.gale warning in effect from late tonight through Friday afternoon...
This afternoon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se. Seas 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..SE winds up to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft after midnight. A chance of snow in the evening, then rain or snow likely after midnight.
Fri..E winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming N 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain or snow showers.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
ANZ100 1100 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure builds over the area through today. The next low pressure system will arrive from the southwest on Friday. High pressure then moves across the waters late in the weekend before another low pressure system potentially affects the waters early next week. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waldoboro, ME
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location: 43.87, -69.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 151623
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
1123 am est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure will cross from west to east overhead
today. A coastal storm will arrive late tonight into Friday
bringing snowfall to maine and new hampshire. An upper level
disturbance will remain over the region Saturday before canadian
high pressure builds into the region Sunday. An arctic front
will cross the region Monday, followed by another weak
disturbance midweek.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
11 am update: major changes to forecast. Have upgraded winter wx
advs to winter storm wrngs for all of southern nh except along
the seacoast where a mix and changeover may occur, otherwise
and all of southern and coastal maine as well. Initial shot of
stg WAA overunniing aloft tonight will bring with it over a half
inch to .75 inches of QPF in the form of snow due to the stg
barolclinicc zone in place and strong evaporational cooling of
the columns with also a deep arctic air mass in place. Expecting
a large swath of 5-8 inches over most areas. A break in the
action occur late tonight and toward morning once the iniitial
shot over WAA ends with a brief dry slot, then the track of the
low-mid level passes to our south Fri bringing with it some
additional wraparound snows. Have adjusted land winds to
reflect the north to northeast drainage winds into the sfc low
as the coastal front will stay offshore. A band of heavier qpf
10-30 miles west of the coastal front may cause some heavier qpf
amts and hgiher snowfall amts due to additional lift provided.

Took out any mention of freezing pcpn for tonight but some sleet
psbl into xtrm SRN nh late after the heaviest QPF occurs.

Lowered temps for tonight and tomorrow based on the colder
consideration based on stg caold air damming and ideal track of
low to keep low level cold iair in place.

Northern areas will be on northern fringe of system and may have
a tough time reaching warning criteria but higher ratios (fluff
factor) may play a role. Since warnings are already up across
northern area will keep them in place.

655 am update...

dew points and temperatures were adjusted as well as sky cover
based on latest satellite images and guidance. Nh and part of
western maine will see cloudy skies this morning which will
increase in coverage as the day GOES on.

We did break the low temperature of 16 degrees at portland this
morning, november 15, 2018, originally set in 1961. This
morning's low was 15 degrees. At concord, the record low of 7
was set in 1905, and it only dropped to 16 degrees this morning,
falling well short.

Previous discussion...

very cold airmass in place this morning with single digits
across the north and teens along the coast. The air is also very
dry with high pressure centered just to our west over new
hampshire. Today will be much warmer than yesterday at any rate,
and winds will be light as the high pressure system passes from
west to east overhead. Temperatures should reach the low mid
20s north to low mid 30s south. Clouds will lower throughout
the day, but especially towards the afternoon and evening.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
A potent short wave will steer a nor'easter just off the coast
tonight into Friday. A secondary short wave trough will lift
into the mid-atlantic on Friday, providing more lift for
precipitation. There are discrepancies in the models based on
amount of precipitation, placement of the best frontogenetical
forcing, and some timing differences. One concern is how much
mid level dry air will wrap into the system. If this comes to
fruition, there will likely be a stripe of freezing drizzle
across the advisory area as mid level dry air arrives later
Friday. This will act to lower snowfall totals compared to the
north.

A coastal front, which the NAM and GFS keep closer to the coast
than the euro, may also cause havoc and bring a mix of
precipitation types to coastal and inland locations. For the
mountains and foothills snowfall totals look high, on the order
of 6-8" with isolated higher amounts of 10-12". With an
easterly or northerly wind much of the time, there will be a
shadowing effect as well with some spots getting slightly less.

Much of southern nh and into central nh will see closer to 4-6"
putting it squarely in advisory territory. This also extends
across coastal maine. Again, coastal counties will vary from
1-4" depending on how far inland you are. Cumberland county was
upgraded to a warning due to higher snow amounts in the
"fishtail" section of the county.

The storm will move out quickly for much of the area Friday
night with lingering snowfall across the north as a great lakes
kicker follows right on its heels. Winds will be gusty during
the storm but should not require a wind advisory. Temperatures
Friday will not be especially cold with warmer temperatures
south towards the coastal front.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
The deterministic model solutions remain in good agreement on the
long wave pattern through early next week. We begin the period
with a shortwave impulse and associated surface low exiting into
the maritimes. In the wake of this system... A broad upper trough
will remain across the eastern two thirds of the conus. Weak
impulses embedded in the flow will drive a series of weak surface
systems across the area accompanied by clouds and limited
moisture. These weak systems will in turn offer several
reinforcing shots of cold air to the region for the period... As
our below normal temperature regime continues. The one weak
system of note will be on Monday... When phasing of shortwave
energy may provide a more general snowfall to coastal sections
as well as our eastern maine zones as a coastal low races
northeast across the gulf of maine.

Aviation 16z Thursday through Monday
Short term...VFR today before conditions deteriorate gradually,
first for southern nh and SW maine terminals overnight and for
the remainder of the area in the morning hours. A strong coastal
storm will bring a mix of snow, rain, sleet, and fzdz at times
throughout the day. Ceilings will be ifr with snow falling at
more than an inch an hour reducing visibilities to a half mile
or less at times. Improving conditions from south to north with
drier air arriving at the coast and pushing inland. Hie and leb
may see additional -shsn Friday night.

Long term...

sat... Sct MVFR in mtn -shsn.

Mon... Areas of MVFR in -sn.

Marine
Short term... Have added casco bay to the gale warnings which
begin late tonight and continue through Friday.

Long term...

sat... Scas likely... With gales psb outside the bays.

Mon... Scas are psb outside the bays.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Winter storm warning from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est Friday
for mez018-023.

Winter storm warning from 1 am to 4 pm est Friday for
mez007>009-012>014-019>022-024>028.

Nh... Winter storm warning from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est Friday
for nhz005>013-015.

Winter storm warning from 1 am to 4 pm est Friday for
nhz001>004.

Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
Friday for nhz014.

Marine... Gale warning from 1 am to 4 pm est Friday for anz150>154.

Near term... Marine
short term... Marine


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 11 mi86 min NNW 7.8 G 12 28°F 50°F1 ft1033.4 hPa
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 20 mi86 min N 7.8 G 9.7 29°F 47°F1 ft1033.6 hPa
MISM1 - Matinicus Rock, ME 23 mi90 min N 8 G 12 29°F 1033.7 hPa (-1.6)
44005 - GULF OF MAINE 78 NM EAST OF PORTSMOUTH,NH 47 mi40 min 34°F 50°F2 ft1034.4 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rockland, Knox County Regional Airport, ME17 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair30°F5°F34%1033.9 hPa
Wiscasset Airport, ME23 mi37 minNNE 410.00 miFair30°F3°F31%1034.5 hPa

Wind History from RKD (wind in knots)
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NE7NW5NW4W6W6W9NW653Calm
1 day agoSE11
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2 days agoW8W9W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmW6W4W6CalmCalmNE3SE12
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Tide / Current Tables for Burnt Island, Georges Islands, Maine
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Burnt Island
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Thu -- 04:16 AM EST     7.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 10:12 AM EST     2.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:50 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:11 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:22 PM EST     8.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:50 PM EST     1.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:11 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.74.36.17.37.87.76.85.33.72.522.23.14.66.37.68.38.27.45.94.12.51.51.2

Tide / Current Tables for Sheepscot River (off Barter Island), Maine Current
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Sheepscot River (off Barter Island)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:15 AM EST     0.61 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:33 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:33 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:05 AM EST     -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 11:49 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:33 PM EST     0.60 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:12 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:26 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:30 PM EST     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:13 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.60.50.30.20.2-0.2-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.40.10.50.60.30.10.1-0.2-0.6-0.9-0.9-0.8-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.