Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waldoboro, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:55AMSunset 8:27PM Monday June 18, 2018 1:01 PM EDT (17:01 UTC) Moonrise 10:26AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ150 Coastal Waters From Stonington, Me To Port Clyde, Me Out 25 Nm- 1216 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
This afternoon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Some tstms may produce damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Showers with tstms likely in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Some tstms may produce damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Tue..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 1216 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Southwest flow will increase today ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest. This front will move across the gulf of maine tonight with high pressure over the great lakes building into the region Tuesday. The next front arrives on Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waldoboro, ME
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location: 43.87, -69.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 181610 aab
afdgyx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service gray me
1210 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
A southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front will bring
very warm and humid conditions to the area today. Some areas on
Monday will see heat index values break 95 degrees. The
atmosphere destabilizes significantly during this afternoon
with widespread thunderstorms expected. Once the front moves
though tonight, temperatures will moderate a little bit.

Another cold front moving through on Wednesday will push
temperatures down to near normal before they start rising again
toward next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
1159 am update: noontime regional radar imagery shows a broken
line of convection extending from southern quebec south and west
into far upstate new york. This convection is well ahead of the
surface cold front... And lines up with a subtle surface trough
and mid level impulse. The airmass south and east of this
feature is destabilizing... But slowly with both temperatures and
dewpoints lagging previous forecast. Thus... Expect this activity
to gradually increase in intensity as it moves towards our
forecast area... Reaching northern zones between 1 and 2pm. Deep
layer shear is ample... Generally around 40kts in the 0-6km
layer. This will support some organized updrafts if we can
realize the instability... With the best threat for this being
over the southern two thirds of nh and far southwestern maine.

Biggest threat is certainly wind with the strong winds aloft but
the aforementioned updraft organization... Some hail is possible
and an isolated tornado is not completely out of the question
although pretty large surface dewpoint depression negates this
being a significant threat. More likely is heavy rainfall given
pwats now moving above 1.5" and some potential for training
albeit fast moving storms as their motion increasingly becomes
aligned with the mid level flow.

As for changes... Have lowered temperatures and dewpoints given
late morning observational trends... With the remainder of the
forecast in good shape at this time.

853 am update: updates this hour include adjusting pops to
increase them in shower storm activity over northern sections in
line with morning kgyx 88d radar trends. Otherwise... Have issued
a beach hazards statement along the coast for cold water
hazards. Other changes were minor and to match the near term
with morning observational trends.

615 am... Hrrr doing a solid job with morning showers moving
through, and based on it, should see the showers and weak
convection in quebec cross the CWA by 12-13z. After that thing
should heat up quickly, and rest of forecast looks good. Hrrr
showing two rounds of convection, one around 19-21z and another
around 00z, both have severe potential although first line may
end up better severe threat, and second line may be the flooding
threat, but this remains to be seen.

Previously... In the immediate future, a couple of of bands of
showers will moves across the NRN and ERN zones thru early this
morning, these are depicted fairly well by the hrrr, which clear
them out of the ERN zones by 12z. I suspect the hrrr may be
hanging on them too long, but wither way they should be
weakening as they move thru and not amount too much by the time
the cross the cwa, despite some lightning currently N of kbtv .

Further west toward ottawa, the front has been fairly active
overnight as well, and the hrrr does bring some shra tsra across
the far NRN zones this morning, but the concern for severe will
be this afternoon into this evening.

But first, let's discuss the heat. Pretty decent low to mid
lvl wsw jet moving through today with 850 temps surging to
around 20c this afternoon, so, mixing down these warm temps
should not be a problem, and wind direction should provide
additional in the southern areas due to the downslope. The
downslope will help keep tds down a bit, but they will still get
well into the 60s to around 70 in some spots, and this will
produce heat index values in the mid 90s to around 100 in much
of the southern half of nh, and SW me. Heat indices will
probably reach into the 90s across much of the CWA today, with
only the mid-coast, and the me mountains missing out. I did
extend the heat advisory into cumberland county as interior
areas , especially on the coastal side of sebago lake, should
get into criteria, as well and the coastal areas around
portland. Probably on the other side of casco bay, near
brunswick and definitely harpswell, hi values will stay below
90.

On to the t-storms this afternoon. Most of the storms associated
with the immediate front will likely not move into the northern
until late in the afternoon, and we'll talk about these in the
tonight part of the discussion. Still will have to watch for any
storm that do pop up this afternoon. Good capping with warm mid
lvls should keep them from getting too strong, but if anything
can break the cap, they will have plenty of fuel to work with,
and a rotating supercell is not out of the question, given
decent shear and plenty of instability, and despite weak mid
level lapse rates.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Line of storms associated with frontal will likely cross into
the mountains between 4 and 6 pm. This line will be the best chc
for any severe weather as it traverses the CWA from nw-se
during the late afternoon and evening. Best chance will be away
from the coast in me and central and northern nh, but cannot
rule out a line that makes pretty close to the coast. Wind
damage will be on threat from these storms, as will lightning,
as there should be a fair mount of it. The other issue the flash
flood potential as air mass will be quit moist pws of 2+
inches , and with front slowing as it crosses the cwa, should
set up an env that favors back-building of storms, especially
this evening.

As the line of showers heads into SRN zones late this evening,
should the threats diminish, although will likely see another
weaker line move into the mtns mid-late evening, before that
washes out. Models suggest decent NW flow behind the front, ,
which should dry out the mountains, but as is often the case,
will the winds down south of the mountains? My guess is probably
not until sunrise, and this will keep the low level moisture in
at the surface, and produce fog, and a muggy night, with lows
ranging from around 60 in the north, to the mid to upper 60s in
the south.

Any early morning clouds and fog should mix out quickly tue
morning, with dry NW winds picking up, and generally sunny
skies. The downslope should allow for temps in the lows 80s in
the south, and generally 75-80 in the north.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
A cold front with very little moisture associated with it will
move across the region late wed. Behind the front temps will be
cooler and near normal with dry conditions through the end of
the work week. On Sat a warmer return southwest flow will
develop in advance of the next system approaching from the
midwest. More humid conditions will develop late Sat into sun.

By Sunday the upper trof is progged to move across the region
producing unsettled weather.

Aviation 16z Monday through Friday
Short term... Coastal fog stratus should mix out after sunrise
this morning withVFR expected into the afternoon. A line of
tsra with strong wind gusts will move thru during the late
afternoon into the evening, and conds behind the line should
keep MVFR to ifr flight restrictions thru a good part of the
night at all terminal except for khie, and maybe kleb.VFR
expected Tuesday.

Long term...VFR conditions Tue through fri.

Marine
Short term... No real changes to forecast thinking, with SCA in
place for later today through most of tonight in SW flow ahead
of a cold front.

Long term... Light winds Tue night will increase from the
southwest Wed ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds may
approach SCA conditions briefly over the outer waters late wed.

A cold front moves across the waters Wed night shifting winds to
the northwest and continuing thu. High pressure becomes centered
over the waters Thu night and Fri with light variable winds.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for mez018-019-023-
024.

Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for
mez023>028.

Nh... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for nhz005>015.

Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for nhz014.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for anz150-152-154.

Near term... Arnott


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 11 mi117 min S 12 G 14 58°F 54°F3 ft1009.2 hPa
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 20 mi117 min S 5.8 G 9.7 56°F 55°F1 ft1010.2 hPa
MISM1 - Matinicus Rock, ME 23 mi61 min SSW 25 G 27 58°F 1009.1 hPa (-2.3)

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rockland, Knox County Regional Airport, ME17 mi65 minSSW 710.00 miFair67°F60°F79%1009.4 hPa
Wiscasset Airport, ME23 mi68 minSSE 810.00 miFair75°F62°F64%1009.6 hPa

Wind History from RKD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10SE13E12E13E10E7E8E7E7E3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmSW6SW7W12SW7
1 day agoW9NW6W3W7W7W5W5W3CalmCalmW4CalmNW5NW3CalmN4E4NE6NE74E7NE7E9E10
2 days agoS7S10S10S10S6SW9SW8SW6SW6W6W6W6CalmW3W6W7W6W7W8W9W10W5NW7W7

Tide / Current Tables for Burnt Island, Georges Islands, Maine
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Burnt Island
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Mon -- 02:53 AM EDT     10.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:19 AM EDT     -1.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:40 PM EDT     9.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:41 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
68.710.410.910.18.25.32.40.1-1-0.80.73.15.98.29.69.88.86.84.21.80.40.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Sheepscot River (off Barter Island), Maine Current
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Sheepscot River (off Barter Island)
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Mon -- 12:19 AM EDT     1.11 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:03 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:09 AM EDT     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:50 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:53 PM EDT     1.03 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:38 PM EDT     -1.18 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:09 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.110.70.40-0.6-1.2-1.5-1.4-1.1-0.60.10.810.80.60.4-0.1-0.7-1.1-1.2-1-0.7-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.