Saturday, October21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Topsham, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:46PM Saturday October 21, 2017 11:37 AM EDT (15:37 UTC) Moonrise 8:37AMMoonset 7:12PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 1047 Am Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
This afternoon..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..S winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain with a chance of tstms.
Wed..S winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain likely.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 1047 Am Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure will shift offshore today. High pressure will hold off the coast through Sunday as a weak warm front holds steady across southern new england on Sunday. A slow moving cold front will approach from the west on Monday and will move across new england Tuesday night and Wednesday. Low pressure will then develop along this front and move into the gulf of maine Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsham, ME
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location: 43.92, -69.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 211452 aaa
afdgyx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service gray me
1052 am edt Sat oct 21 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will shift offshore today allowing for another
warming trend to commence. High pressure will hold off the
coast through Sunday as a weak warm front holds steady across
southern new england on Sunday. A slow moving cold front will
approach from the west on Monday and will move across new
england Tuesday night and Wednesday. Low pressure will then
develop along this front and move into the gulf of maine
Thursday. Fair weather should move in over the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Update... The nocturnal inversion is slowly breaking with daytime
heating... But lack of wind to assist is delaying the temp rise
so far. I have adjusted the next couple of hours to better
reflect this trend... But otherwise I expect temps will make it
into the 70s across SRN nh and well into the 60s elsewhere.

Some upstream mid to high level moisture also moved into the
area this morning and with the help of a mtn top inversion well
above the nocturnal boundary layer produce some upward
propagating mtn wave clouds. As that inversion continues to mix
out this morning those clouds across mainly somerset co right
now will scatter out.

Original discussion...

after a chilly start in some spots, we should see a good warm up
today. Southerly flow transports warm air back into the region,
with temperatures reaching the 70s for most places and mid 70s
for the warmest.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
High pressure shifts offshore tonight, though it will still be a
pretty calm night across the area with good cooling expected.

Greater moisture in place should keep temperatures from falling
much below 40, and as a result some fog can be expected by
morning especially in valley locations.

It will be another warm day on Sunday as high pressure offshore
brings a southerly flow into the area. There will be some
additional moisture moving in from the gulf of maine on Sunday,
so dewpoints should rise into the 50s while temperatures reach
the upper 60s and low 70s.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Not too many changes to the extended as the same general theme
exists in the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance as deep
layer ridging early on gives way to troughing midweek.

Large deep layer high pressure will be centered just off the new
england coast on Monday, with southerly return flow bringing in
warmth and more moisture. Some lower clouds may work in later in
the day, but it should remain dry.

On Tuesday, long wave troughing will approach from the west as
the ridging gradually moves out to sea. This will result in
increasingly southerly meridional deep layer flow during the
day. Increasing moisture will come with it, and this will result
in an increasing chance of rain as the day progresses. It is
however expected to be light.

Forcing for ascent increases Tuesday evening and night as the
trough and attendant sfc cold front approaches from the west.

There should be a south-north oriented band of heavy rain that
moves into western zones ahead of this front Tuesday night as
the low level jet kicks up and fuels the prefrontal environment
with high pwat air. A few thunderstorms will be possible as well
as weak instability develops, at least aloft. Speaking of the
low level jet, with the boundary layer expected to be relatively
warm and moist, a percentage of the low level jet should be
able mix down Tuesday night into Wednesday. Would not be
surprised to see a few 40 mph gusts during this time,
especially in convection, and especially if a few thunderstorms
develop or at least a narrow prefrontal fine line. There many be
some localized flooding during this time, but most of the area
is parched so we don't expect any widespread flooding problems.

We need the rain.

The main question later Wed into Thu is whether or not a
secondary wave of low pressure develops along the front and
moves across our area - delivering another round of heavy
rainfall. Model solutions are somewhat divergent on this idea
at this time due to differences in amplitude and speed of the
approaching trough. Plenty of time to iron things out there -
but there is somewhat of a chance that the frontal rains tue
night-wed could be the main show. However, the latest 00z ecmwf
is less progressive and at least delivers a few more inches of
rain to coastal and eastern zones. Either way, improvement is
foreseen Fri into the weekend.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
Short term...VFR conditions expected with light winds as high
pressure drifts east across the area. Should see some fog
develop in the valleys by Sunday morning as greater low level
moisture will exist.

Long term...VFR Monday. Mon night into tue... Deep moisture and
waa over the waters may bring stratus into coastal terminals.

Tue night and Wed should feature widespread ifr in rain along
with llws.

Marine
Short term... Light winds and relatively low seas expected as
high pressure crests over the waters.

Long term... High pressure in control of the region will keep
winds and seas below SCA thresholds thru mon. Developing return
flow Mon into Tue will gradually build seas outside the bays
towards 5 ft tue. Low level winds increase later Tue and
especially overnight into wed. There will be a small window for
gale force gusts outside the bays... And seas will build to near
10 ft. Persistent sly flow thru the remainder of the week will
keep seas above 5 ft even as winds begin to diminish.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Legro


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 24 mi50 min 61°F 55°F1024.1 hPa
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 29 mi48 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 56°F 55°F1 ft1023.8 hPa (+0.4)46°F
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 35 mi94 min SSW 1.9 G 1.9 56°F 55°F2 ft1023.7 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wiscasset Airport, ME14 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair64°F43°F46%1024.5 hPa
Auburn-Lewiston, ME20 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair63°F43°F48%1025.8 hPa

Wind History from IWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr6W8
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66NW4NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS8
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SW7SW6SW4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm556
2 days agoW6
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553CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S6

Tide / Current Tables for Brunswick, Androscoggin River, Kennebec River, Maine
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Brunswick
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:13 AM EDT     4.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:14 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:23 PM EDT     4.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:41 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.41.93.44.143.732.31.50.80.30.10.41.73.34.24.23.93.32.51.70.90.3-0

Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:36 AM EDT     0.94 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:03 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:04 AM EDT     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:43 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:30 PM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:28 PM EDT     -0.94 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.90.90.90.70-0.6-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.30.20.7110.90.80.3-0.4-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.5-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.