Friday, January18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Topsham, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:32PM Friday January 18, 2019 5:53 PM EST (22:53 UTC) Moonrise 3:02PMMoonset 5:23AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 322 Pm Est Fri Jan 18 2019
.gale watch in effect from late Saturday night through Monday morning...
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Light freezing spray in the morning.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Sun..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Snow.
Sun night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of snow. Light freezing spray after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Moderate freezing spray. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Moderate freezing spray. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain and snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow and rain showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ100 322 Pm Est Fri Jan 18 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A fresh cold air mass will move into the region this evening with increasing northwest winds. This sets the stage for a strong storm developing off the east coast. This will track near the northern new england coastline this weekend bringing the potential for gale or even possibly storm force winds to the waters. Arctic air will move in to start the week. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsham, ME
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location: 43.92, -69.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 182042
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
339 pm est Fri jan 18 2019

Synopsis
Light snow snow showers will continue through this evening as a
weak disturbance moves off to the northeast. High pressure to
our north will keep things quiet on Saturday before a more
significant system approaches our region Saturday night. Low
pressure will track to our south and east late Saturday night
into Sunday and provide a period of heavy snow. Very cold air
streams in behind this system Sunday night and Monday. Highs
pressure builds in for Tuesday, and begins a warming trend.

There will be chance for a wintry mix or rain Wednesday and
Thursday.

Near term through Saturday
Light snow showers are moving through north and central nh and
western me at this hour. Snow showers previously streaming
onshore along the mid-coast are coming to an end. Not expecting
much accumulation with this activity, but half an inch totals
are possible in some spots through this evening. Snow showers
will linger in the northern mountains through the early morning
hours, but the rest of the CWA will simply be cold overnight with
skies clearing somewhat before sunrise.

Saturday will begin with partly cloudy skies and cold
temperatures. Clouds will be on the increase throughout the day
as the next system to approach our region approaches. By
Saturday evening, snow is likely to be ongoing in much of new
hampshire, but accumulations Saturday afternoon and evening
should not exceed an inch. The snow should hold off in western
maine until Saturday night... Which is covered below.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
Major winter storm will impact the region Saturday night into
Sunday...

overview: low pressure developing over the four corners will race
northeast through the next 24 hours developing into a potent extra
tropical cyclone bringing widespread snowfall to the region.

Snow will begin late Saturday and continue through the day on Sunday
with snowfall rates above 1" hr at times. *** travel on Sunday will
be treacherous and should be avoided at all costs***
changes: overall there has been very little change with this
forecast package in terms of both the amount and timing of the heavy
snow. While some of the 12z guidance has trended a bit warmer aloft
keeping sleet a threat for the coast, have opted to play the long
game here and have kept the thermal profiles very similar to prior
forecasts keeping just a chance for sleet along the immediate
coastline. Even with the warmer air aloft the low center continues
to track offshore and the depth of cold surface air means that it
will be hard for any complete melting to occur and thus freezing
rain is not really a threat for our area. The QPF has trended
slightly downward, which has brought it a bit closer in line
with what one would expect for a winter storm although there
continues to be some convective feedback generating very large
rainfall in the mesoscale bands on the warmer side of the
system.

Snow amounts: a widespread 12-18" is expected across the
forecast area. Even along the coast where there is a threat of
sleet the initial snowfall will meet warning criteria and thus a
winter storm warning has been issued for the entire region.

While some pockets of 2ft+ area possible over all the very
progressive nature of the system means that even with the
intense frontogenesis expected it will move through the area
quickly keeping amounts relatively equal. The heaviest snowfall
(>2" hr) will enter southern new hampshire before dawn on Sunday
and progress northwards through to central and northern maine
by midday.

Wind: there will be a good low level jet supporting this storm but
with the cold air in place at the surface don't expect the mixing to
get very far. Some wind gusts to around 30mph are possible along the
coast. Additionally winds will increase Sunday afternoon as we move
into northwesterly cold advection on the backside of the storm. This
may result in periods of blowing snow and continued reduced
visibility even after the heaviest snowfall has ended.

Temperatures: this will be a cold weekend with conditions starting
in the low 20s south to single digits north on Saturday and not
warming up very much. Even as the low approaches and warm air tries
to move in aloft the surface temperatures remain frigid. Sunday
evening cold advection will take hold as temperatures drop
below zero north to single digits south. This will result in
temperatures near wind chill warning and the wsw has been
extended through Monday morning in the mountains to account for
both this cold and any lingering upslope snowfall.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Very cold Monday...

a quick look at the model forecast of the 500 mb pattern over
the NRN hemisphere, shows the polar vortex making some
incursions southward to around 50 N latitude, which would bring
into SRN canada at times, and the core of the cold would graze
us to the N a few times in the long range. Still, as has been
the case all winter so far, cannot develop a stable pattern at
500 mb, and the flow stays progressive, so the cold spells don't
last. Still, will see some very cold air moving the storm for
Monday, but it moderates quickly, and above normal temps
possible by mid week. Also, another trough moves through mid
week as well, and could produce some rain in some areas.

As for Monday, the core of the coldest air will pass over the ne
conus, and 850 temps will fall to -20 to -25 c. This will limit
highs to the single digits thru the lower teens on Monday. Will
still SE strong NW flow with gusty winds, and daytime wind
chills will range from around -20 in the mtns, to around -5 in
the south. There is a weak wave that will rotate rotate around
the low to our east, and this should keep things mostly cloudy,
with some snow showers possible in the N and E zones especially
in the after. Noon. Also, there will likely be some areas of
snow thru the day as well.

Winds gradually subside Monday night, with lows ranging from -20
to -10 in the N to around zero or just above in the south.

Although winds diminish, they will still be going through the
night at around 10 kts or so in many places, and this will
likely push wind chills in the -20 to -30 range in the NRN half
of the CWA Mon night, if not further south. Ridging will build
in for Tuesday which should be dry with highs pushing up into
the mid to teens to mid 20s, and light winds.

Models suggesting non-phasing waves in the NRN and SRN streams
move through wed-thu, but this is low confidence at this point,
so have chc pops in this period. P-type would remain
questionable as well, with a wintry mix possibly transitioning
to rain in the south, with colder air moving in behind the
system late in the week.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
Short term... Intermittent MVFR conditions through this evening,
especially at hie. Otherwise,VFR conditions expected through
Saturday afternoon. Sunday night will see a rapid deterioration
in conditions as steady snow moves into the region. Lifr is
expected to move into southwestern nh by 00z Sunday and through
the entire region by 09z Sunday. Steady snowfall will continue
through the day on Sunday. Cold advection and increasing
northwesterly winds Sunday afternoon may result in blowing snow
for aug and eastern portions of the area.

Long term... Ifr or lower in sn late Saturday night into Sunday.

Gusty NW winds develop Sunday night into Monday, which could
produce areas of blowing snow, which may reduce vis at times to
2-3sm.VFR Mon night into Tue night. Could see some flight
restrictions in precip on wed.

Marine
Short term... Gale watch remains in effect for the Sunday
storm. High confidence in gales during the time period, however
with a SCA still in effect will leave it as a watch.

Long term... Gusty winds and very cold air will combine to
produce moderate freezing spray Monday and Monday night, as
gales will likely persist outside the bays on Monday, with sca
lingering through Monday night. Winds will subside on Tuesday.

Tides coastal flooding
A storm moving through the gulf of maine will generate
northeasterly onshore winds, and waves of 10 - 15ft. In
combination with high astronomical tides on Sunday morning this
may result in areas of moderate flooding. The highest threat is
along the new hampshire and southern maine coastline where the
winds are most onshore and highest surge values of 1-1.5 ft are
expected and a coastal flood watch has been issued for this
area. To the north up through the midcoast the surge is somewhat
less, but this area will also have to be monitored for possible
minor flooding.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Winter storm warning from 7 pm Saturday to 1 am est Monday for
mez012>014-018>028.

Winter storm warning from 7 pm Saturday to 7 am est Monday for
mez007>009.

Coastal flood watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
afternoon for mez023-024.

Nh... Winter storm warning from 7 pm Saturday to 1 am est Monday for
nhz003>015.

Winter storm warning from 7 pm Saturday to 7 am est Monday for
nhz001-002.

Coastal flood watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
afternoon for nhz014.

Marine... Gale watch from late Saturday night through Monday morning
for anz150>154.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am est
Saturday for anz150-152-154.

Synopsis... Watson
near term... Watson
short term... Curtis
long term... Cempa
aviation... Cempa curtis watson
marine... Cempa curtis watson
tides coastal flooding... Curtis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 24 mi54 min 31°F 36°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 29 mi64 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 33°F 42°F2 ft1016.3 hPa (-0.7)28°F
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 35 mi110 min 42°F4 ft

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wiscasset Airport, ME14 mi61 minN 010.00 miOvercast31°F21°F67%1016.7 hPa
Auburn-Lewiston, ME20 mi58 minN 08.00 miUnknown Precip25°F16°F69%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from IWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmSW53W45NW7
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4--3CalmCalm3NW7--NW6--44CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW34SW9S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Brunswick, Androscoggin River, Kennebec River, Maine
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
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Fri -- 12:29 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:33 AM EST     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:21 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:42 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:48 AM EST     1.03 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 12:55 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:01 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:07 PM EST     -0.97 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:48 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:22 PM EST     0.88 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-0.3-0.7-0.8-0.5-0.20.10.50.910.90.70.5-0-0.7-1-0.8-0.6-0.30.10.60.90.80.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.