Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Topsham, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 4:16PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 2:56 AM EST (07:56 UTC) Moonrise 12:43PMMoonset 10:17PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 1003 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
.gale warning in effect from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening...
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 5 to 15 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft. Rain.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of rain in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight. A chance of snow.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain or snow.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ100 1003 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Low pressure will develop near new york city tonight and track across cape cod toward nova scotia on Tuesday, strengthening as it moves by. Expect an increasing southerly flow ahead of the low on Tuesday and an even stronger northwest flow behind it Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure moves into new england Wednesday night and shifts east on Thursday. The next nor'easter arrives on Friday, tracking a little further offshore of cape cod this time. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsham, ME
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location: 43.92, -69.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 130315
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
1015 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will track up the east coast and bring snow and
rain to new hampshire and maine on Tuesday. While many areas may
start as snow, expect much of the coastal plain and southern new
hampshire to change to rain while more significant snow
accumulations are limited to northern areas. As the low moves
off to the northeast it will pull in some much colder air on a
strong northwesterly wind Tuesday night and Wednesday. This cold
air will stick around through Thursday with the next nor'easter
arriving on Friday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
1005 pm update... Have updated the forecast this evening, mainly
for an ever so slightly cooler scenario late tonight and early
Tuesday morning. Temps have radiated down a good deal this
evening thanks to earlier clear skies. I don't think this will
have a significant impact on snowfall amounts south of the
advisory warning areas since there will likely be above-freezing
air around 950mb that should be enough to at least partially
melt snowflakes. However, enough UVV in that layer in tandem
with web-bulbing may allow for a period of snow before it goes
over to rain - perhaps just enough to makes roads slick.

In addition, with the 950-850mb layer warming to above freezing
after cooling ceases early Tue morning, a period of light
freezing rain will be possible at the transition point between
rain and snow across interior portions of the coastal plain in
me where sfc temps remain around 31f. Not highly confident on
this at this time, so advisories will not be expanded southward
at this time. Any period of fzra should be short. However,
trends will continue to be monitored overnight.

Previously...

630 pm update... Only change to the forecast early this evening
was to drop temperatures faster for the next 1-3 hours due to
radiational cooling. Otherwise, everything else looks to be on
track.

Previously...

high pressure slides off to the east tonight with increasing
clouds arriving from the southwest. Expect temperatures to fall
most quickly in the evening tonight before cloud cover limits
further cooling. Coolest temperatures will be in the east where
cloud cover will have the least effect, while southwestern parts
of the area may see rising temperatures by morning as
precipitation arrives in advance of the next low pressure
system. Expect much of the area to see the first bit of the
precipitation fall as snow, with temperatures warming as it
arrives, changing it to rain over southern areas before much
accumulation.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Low pressure tracks across CAPE cod on Tuesday and strengthens
as it pulls toward nova scotia. It will be wrapping in a fair
amount of warm air, so the rain snow line will push a good ways
inland, likely all the way to the foothills mountains. Snow
accumulation in northern areas will likely reach the 6 to 8 inch
range, so a winter storm warning has been issued there in
collaboration with our neighboring offices. We have also
expanded the winter weather advisory a bit southward.

Accumulations in the transition area are highly uncertain, but
with the amounts currently expected and the transition to rain
likely making snow covered surfaces even more slippery during
the morning commute, opted to expand the advisory. Precipitation
should come to an end Tuesday afternoon or early evening as the
low quickly pulls away.

As it does pull away we will get a strong northwest flow
developing behind it, ushering in some much colder air. Timing
of this moving through during the overnight hours makes it a bit
less certain as to how much of the low level wind flow will be
able to mix to ground level. However, considering the strong
cold advection which will shift the low level environment from
inverted to well mixed in a hurry, expect that we will see a
good deal of gustiness once that colder air arrives during the
night Tuesday night. We may eventually need a wind advisory for
this period, but for now am forecasting wind gusts just below
criteria.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
The deep upper trof will be passing and exiting to our north as
it moves east into the maritimes wed. A very strong cyclonic
linear low-mid level jet with the northwest flow will cause
very strong gusty winds and will likely require some headlines
but its still 4th- 5th periods so will hold off for now. Very
strong CAA Wed with falling temps through the day, certainly no
diurnal curve. H85 temps to fall to -15c to -20c by Wed afternoon.

Wed night the strong gusty winds will continue into the evening
followed by some abating of the winds by later in the evening
as the cold dense air mass settles in. Wed night will be the
coldest night so far this season as temps fall into the single
numbers in the mountains and teens elsewhere. Weak high pressure
briefly settles over the area although WAA high clouds will be
spilling over the upper ridge from the approaching southern
system.

Thu night the deep arctic air mass will be in place. Models
agree in lifting the sfc upper low out of the gulf of mexico and
then up the east coast Thu night and then along or off the new
england coast fri. The euro is furthest north and wettest with
1+ inches of QPF while the other models are further south with
about half the qpf. Considering source region of gulf system,
high pwat's expected, combined with more latent and sensible
heat release off the warm ocean waters as it moves up the east
coast. Of note all models are trending further south each run.

Based pops Fri on euro solution and a sfc mid level track along
or just off the maine coast. Significant snowfall likely in the
mountains and foothills as this should be primarily a snow
event. Inland areas further south may also see some
accumulations. Using h85 -2c to -5c and using an area 1.5-2 degs
west of the low-mid level track puts a swath of heaviest
amounts into the mtns foothills fri. With the depth of the
arctic air mass in place, stg cold air damming expected and
forecast highs Fri likely too warm and may need to be adjusted
even colder.

The system quickly exits northeast into the maritimes by later
fri night with clearing in its wake with weak high pressure
moving in for sat. Some lingering snow showers expected in the
mountains.

A clipper will approach later Sat into Sun possibly spreading
snow showers into the mountains Sat night and Sun and then
elsewhere by Sun evening.

Aviation 03z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term... Expect increasing clouds and lowering ceilings
through the night, with precipitation arriving by morning. Will
likely see precipitation start initially as snow at most spots
before quickly transitioning to rain for southern and coastal
areas with ifr conditions lasting most of the day. As
precipitation and lower ceilings move out Tuesday afternoon, a
much colder air mass will be ushered in on strong northwest
winds during the night.

Long term... Strong gusty NW winds to 40+ kts possible Wed with
winds subsiding Wed night.VFR conditions wed-thu. Conds lowering
to ifr lifr late Thu night over southern areas and all areas fri.

Conds slowly improve toVFR later Fri night. Lingering MVFR
conditions expected in the mountains into sat.

Marine
Short term... Low pressure will be strengthening as it arrives
and passes through the gulf of maine on Tuesday. Thus expect
gale force gusts over the outer waters in the south to southeast
flow ahead of the low on Tuesday, while the entire gulf of maine
gets in on the northwesterly gales beginning Tuesday night after
midnight.

Long term... Strong gale force winds expected Wed into Wed evening
before slowly diminishing thu. The next coastal low is expected
to track near CAPE cod on Friday into Fri night with stronger
winds possible ahead of and behind this storm as the center tracks
across the coastal waters of the gulf of maine.

Hydrology
Rainfall amounts tonight through Tuesday are not expected to
cause any river flooding at this time. However, ponding of water
on roads and other low lying areas is expected.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Winter storm warning from 4 am to 7 pm est Tuesday for
mez007>009.

Winter weather advisory from 4 am to 7 pm est Tuesday for
mez012>014.

Nh... Winter storm warning from 4 am to 7 pm est Tuesday for nhz001.

Winter weather advisory from 4 am to 7 pm est Tuesday for
nhz002>004.

Marine... Gale warning from midnight Tuesday night to midnight est
Wednesday night for anz151-153.

Gale warning from noon Tuesday to midnight est Wednesday night
for anz150-152-154.

Near term... Ekster
short term... Kimble
long term... Marine


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 24 mi44 min 45°F 48°F1026.5 hPa
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 29 mi66 min SW 7.8 G 16 47°F 48°F2 ft1026.5 hPa (-1.6)33°F
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 35 mi112 min SSW 14 G 18 48°F 51°F3 ft1026.9 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wiscasset Airport, ME14 mi63 minN 010.00 miOvercast33°F32°F96%1028 hPa
Auburn-Lewiston, ME20 mi60 minN 410.00 miUnknown Precip31°F28°F89%1029.3 hPa

Wind History from IWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W64Calm3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Brunswick, Androscoggin River, Kennebec River, Maine
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:39 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:09 AM EST     0.78 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:31 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:24 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:11 AM EST     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:29 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:19 PM EST     0.80 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:15 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:32 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:17 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:37 PM EST     -0.82 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.20.20.60.80.70.70.60.2-0.3-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.50.80.70.60.50.3-0.3-0.7-0.8-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.