Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Topsham, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:56AMSunset 8:28PM Thursday June 22, 2017 7:50 PM EDT (23:50 UTC) Moonrise 3:52AMMoonset 6:44PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 300 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and tstms. Patchy fog. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 300 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure will move southeast of the waters tonight. A frontal boundary will approach the waters Friday and cross the waters Friday night. High pressure moves south of the waters over the weekend. Winds will become more southerly as a low pressure system moves off the atlantic seaboard early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsham, ME
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location: 43.92, -69.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 222333 aab
afdgyx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service gray me
733 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will move away from the region tonight. Tropical
moisture from the remnants of cindy... And an approaching
frontal system will result in showers and thunderstorms Friday
into Friday night. A series of surface troughs or weak cold
fronts will cross the area this weekend into early next week
bringing us the chance of showers from time to time... Especially
over central and northern areas.

Near term through Friday
552 pm update: going forecast in good shape with only minor
adjustments needed for temperatures. Expect the evening to
remaindry based on upstream radar evolution and recent hrrr
simulations with shower and embedded thunder chances arriving
from the west after midnight.

Previous discussion below...

a weak 500 mb ridge moves across the CWA tonight, which should
help to keep the evening dry, for the most part. Cannot rule out
a shower or sprinkle in the north and west, but this will
probably not produce enough to measure if it occurs at all.

Clouds will thicken from the west this evening. Very latitudinal
stretched trough to our west will bring some WAA across the cwa
tonight, with the better chance of showers after midnight and
in the NRN and western zones. Some elevated instability as well,
so cannot rule out some thunder, but all in all nothing
significant overnight, and some places will see nothing at all.

Temps will fall this evening, but increasing low level moisture
and clouds will likely stall the the temp drop around midnight
or so, and lows will range from the mid to upper 50s in the
north and east, to the low to mid 60s in southern nh and along
the coast.

Short term Friday night through 6 pm Friday
The big question for Friday is whether any part of the sfc cwa
can break into the warm sector and get some Sun and heating. The
warm front should be exiting to the north in the morning,
before secondary low forms on the triple point just N of new
england, which would allow some southern zones to break out
given decent SW flow. This would destabilize the atmosphere
enough to produce tsra, which would open doors for training of
cells, producing very heavy rain, and potential for severe
storms developing in the afternoon. Since best dynamics will lag
a little behind the warm sector, and its questionable how
unstable things get given clouds, will not highlight any severe
at this time. Heavy rain, however is a better bet, with very
moist air, some of it from the remnants of tropical storm cindy,
will produce pwats of around 2 inches. So, could still see heavy
downpours late in the day into the evening, when the better
dynamics aloft move through ahead of the front. Highs are a
tough forecast, and dependent on if and when any locations see a
decent amount of sun, but they will range from the low to mid
to 70s in the mid coast area, where onshore flow will hold for
most of the day, to the low to mid 80s in SRN nh and the ct vly,
where the SW flow will be warm and there will be the chance for
some sun.

The from looks to move through late Friday night, and will
follow the best dynamics as well, so while showers will be
possible through the night, the threat for torrential downpours
should diminish around and after midnight. It is unlikely to
see the front at the sfc, until mixing begins Sat morning, so
expect humid conditions to linger with lows in the 60s, and
mostly in the mid to upper 60s outside the mountains.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
Global models in general agreement over this period. A cold
front will be located over the coastal plain early Saturday.

This could result in a few early morning showers. As the front
pushes offshore expect drier air to move in during Saturday. A
couple of mountain showers may develop in a developing NW flow.

Coastal areas will see a downsloping wind resulting in dry
weather.

On Sunday the NW flow will continue. A short wave of vorticity will
approach which could produce a few showers... Again the best chances
will be over northern and mountain areas. This pattern will persist
on Monday. Late Monday low pressure will develop along the mid
atlantic coast. The most recent runs of the models still track
this low offshore but hold back some troffiness over new england
which would result in a period of rain or widespread showers
for Tuesday. As the low continues to move NE the 500 mb trough
sharpens and looks to keep the area unstable with the threat of
at least a few showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and
Thursday.

Temperatures will start off normal to slightly above normal
Saturday but will become normal to slightly below normal Sunday
through Thursday.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
Short term...

summary: a warm front will lift north across the region tonight
with an increasing chance for showers and a few thunderstorms after
midnight. A warm and very moist airmass will then yield
an increasing risk for showers and thunderstorms by the
afternoon hours on Friday under southerly flow. A cold front
arrives from the west Friday night with continued chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

Restrictions: generallyVFR through tonight with some threat for
temporary restrictions primarily hie leb after midnight in a shower
or embedded thunderstorm. On the day Friday...VFR conditions should
dominate all locations through the morning... But by
afternoon... Expect increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage
to result in some occasional MVFR ifr restrictions... ESP at
hie leb aug. Also... Marine layer will likely work into rkd with
ifr CIGS MVFR vsbys. Shower thunderstorm coverage will decrease
Friday night... But with moist airmass still in place... Expect a
good amount of haze and fog... With locally dense fog possible
depending on how much rain we realize.

Winds: winds less than 5kts overnight before becoming southerly on
Friday and increasing to 10g18kts. Southerly winds continue Friday
night but diminish to less than 10kts.

Llws: there is some risk of llws in the vicinity of rkd after 18z
Friday with low level jet overriding stable air off the ocean.

Thunder: some risk of an isolated thunderstorm through daybreak
Friday for leb hie. Thunder threat will increase all areas for the
day Friday... Particularly afternoon and evening... But remain
greatest at hie leb... With thunder threat diminishing with the loss
of daytime heating Friday night.

Long term... Mostly MVFR toVFR conditions south
of the mountains Saturday though Monday although brief ifr
possible in any showers. MVFR to ifr conditions over the
mountains in clouds and scattered showers. A better chance of
ifr conditions on Tuesday as more widespread showers rain is
expected.

Marine
Short term... SCA issued for SW winds Fri afternoon into early
Saturday morning. Winds will likely peak Sat evening.

Long term...

waves and winds to remain below SCA levels. Visibilities may
become reduced in rain on Tuesday.

Tides coastal flooding
Astronomical high tides will continue through the weekend with
the possibility of nuisance flooding Saturday night at high tide
which will occur at 12:05 am Sunday morning at portland and
12:16 am at portsmouth fort point.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm Friday to 8 am edt Saturday for
anz150-152-154.

Aviation... Arnott


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 24 mi51 min 73°F 53°F1011.1 hPa (-0.0)
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 29 mi61 min SW 9.7 G 9.7 60°F 55°F2 ft1010.8 hPa (+0.0)55°F
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 35 mi107 min S 12 G 16 62°F 59°F3 ft1010.7 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wiscasset Airport, ME14 mi58 minVar 310.00 miFair72°F54°F53%1011.2 hPa
Auburn-Lewiston, ME20 mi55 minW 310.00 mi77°F53°F43%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from IWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW43SW54SW7--66SW7SW6SW8S83
1 day agoSW3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW8SW10
G17
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2 days agoS5SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Brunswick, Androscoggin River, Kennebec River, Maine
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Brunswick
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:23 AM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:34 PM EDT     4.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:34 PM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.74.543.32.41.40.6-0.1-0.3-0.11.12.844.13.93.32.61.70.90.3-0.1-01.12.9

Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:26 AM EDT     -1.13 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:07 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:44 AM EDT     1.05 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:38 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:47 PM EDT     -1.04 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:08 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:05 PM EDT     1.26 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.70.1-0.6-1.1-1.1-0.8-0.5-0.10.5110.90.70.4-0.3-0.9-1-0.8-0.4-0.10.511.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.