Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Damariscotta, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:31PM Thursday January 17, 2019 4:00 AM EST (09:00 UTC) Moonrise 2:13PMMoonset 4:10AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ152 Coastal Waters From Port Clyde, Me To Cape Elizabeth, Me Out 25 Nm- 305 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am est this morning...
.freezing spray advisory in effect until 11 am est this morning...
Today..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Moderate freezing spray.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less, then 2 to 3 ft after midnight. A chance of snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of rain or snow in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming E 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. Snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to variable to less than one quarter nm after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Snow, sleet and rain. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm.
Sun night..N winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
ANZ100 305 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure will build east across the waters through tonight. Weak low pressure tracks through the gulf of maine on Friday. A stronger storm will develop and track near the northern new england coastline this weekend bringing the potential for storm force winds to the waters. Arctic air will move in to start the week. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Damariscotta, ME
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location: 43.93, -69.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 170426
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
1126 pm est Wed jan 16 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the region late today accompanied by
scattered snow showers and a few mountain snow squalls. It will
be 15 to 20 degrees colder on Thursday as arctic high pressure
builds in. The next wave of low pressure tracks across the
region on Friday bringing widespread but light snowfall. A
larger storm will bring wintry weather for the second half of
the upcoming weekend. Significant amounts of wintry
precipitation are likely, but the exact track will determine
those precipitation types.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Update...

have updated the forecast based on current observations and
latest radar imagery. Scattered snow showers and possibly a
couple snow squalls exited the mountains and foothills earlier
and weakend. Have added higher winds for terrain above 4500
feet as mount washington continues to gust well over hurricane
force this evening.

Otherwise, only minor adjustments made to pops, temperatures and
sky cover this evening.

Prev disc...

low pressure tracking through southern quebec is dragging a
cold front through new england at present. This has triggered
numerous snow showers which have recently shown up on regional
radar over the white mountains. Snow squalls are still indicated
for the mountains and foothills the next few hours, and have
covered this threat with a statement which cautions for locally
heavy snowfall causing low visibilities for the afternoon
commute.

The arctic cold front moves offshore around 6 pm bringing an end
to precipitation. Gusty NW winds will follow for a few hours
allowing much colder and drier air to pour in from the north.

Skies clear out quickly and overnight lows will drop to near
-10f across the north to the single digits south. A wind chill
advisory remains in effect for areas including the northern
mountains of nh and maine tonight into tomorrow morning.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Friday
We will see highs Thursday in the single digits north to teens
for the coastal plain with cold high pressure drifting from west
to east. Over southern nh and along the immediate coast
readings will reach the lower 20s. Lows Friday night won't be as
brutally cold as the previous night, with readings around zero
across the north and in the 10s south.

Skies will begin to increase from the SW Thursday night as a
weak and poorly organized storm approaches from the midwest. We
will have a very cold airmass in place throughout the
atmosphere, and as low pressure crosses the area widespread but
weakly forced snowfall is expected Friday beginning before dawn
and ending sometime in the afternoon as drier air is drawn in
from the sw. Specific humidities are low indicating low qpf
amounts. This yields a widespread 1-3" snowfall with the higher
amounts over the mountains and the mid coast region where the
system begins to deepen right before taking off in fast moving
convergent flow aloft. Temperatures should reach the lower 20s
north to mid 30s towards southern sections.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
High impact weather: *** significant winter storm will impact the
region from Saturday night into Sunday. ***
overview: confidence is increasing for a significant winter storm to
impact the region over the weekend. Saturday will start off clear
and cold over northern new england as high pressure exits to the
east. Meanwhile our storm will develop over the four corners and
rapidly intensify as it moves across the southern plains. By 00z
Sunday we'll see the first flakes moving into southern new hampshire
as the low moves up the ohio river valley. By Sunday morning the low
will move offshore of DELMARVA with significant snowfall in the
northwest quadrant. Heavy snow will continue through the day on
Sunday before coming to an end late Sunday night.

Trends: over the past day or so we've seen a consistent colder
trend in the guidance as the low center shifts further offshore.

As of 12z a super majority of ensemble members would keep the
low center east of the maine coast over the gulf of maine
keeping our region in snow.

Upper level pattern: this nor'easter will form in a pretty classic
pattern along the eastern edge of a deepening 500mb trough. To our
west the west CONUS remains under strong high pressure with the
result being blocked flow. This allows our storm to source from
two regions. A short wave in the northern stream will dive
south through the canadian prairies. As it does the southern
stream low over the southern plains will also phase with the two
systems combining to for a very elongated low pressure along
the coast. Whenever there are two systems trying to act in phase
there is room for error, and with neither of them onshore yet
that is certainly the case here however the presence of an
upper block over alaska along with weakly blocked flow over
europe supports the strengthening east coast trough.

Ptype: over the past few days ptype has been a concern with this
system but it gradually becoming less so as the colder trend appears
to be winning. The key here is really that northern stream short
wave will provide the forcing to keep the warmer air offshore.

Trying not to flip flop too hard have opted to leave some mixed
sleet and freezing rain in place along the coast but feel that
an all snow solution is becoming more and more likely. A bit of
freezing drizzle is also possible on the backside in the dry
slot but overall we are looking at a snowstorm with a chance for
some mix along the coast not a widespread icing event.

Snow amounts: if you've been waiting for winter, here it is.

Potential for very heavy snow accumulation widespread double
digit snowfall continues to increase. With 1-1.5" of liquid
precipitation, even a modest 10:1 snow ratio easily achieves
that objective. In fact higher snow ratios are quite possible,
particularly in the interior. Forecast soundings show strong
upward motion in the snow growth zone on Sunday morning across
southern maine and expect a region of snowfall rates over 1" hr
through Sunday. It's far too early to pin down any mesoscale
effects other than to mention that strong snow bands are likely
with this kind of strong dynamic storm and any areas that remain
under snowbands may see closer to 2" hr rates.

Wind: a look at the pressure gradient and rapid strengthening
of the system says that strong winds are likely with this
system. The trick will be getting them down to the surface as a
more stable cold layer over land may limit the mixing somewhat.

However along the coast line and certainly over the coastal
waters stronger gusts are likely.

Monday and beyond: a very cold airmass will move in behind the storm
with the potential for below zero temperatures down to the coast.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
Short term through Thursday ... Variable ceilings across the
area with improvement to mostlyVFR decks with the occasional
MVFR. Clearing and improvement will continue as a cold front
pushes offshore tonight. Gusty wnw winds will develop this
afternoon and evening before diminishing overnight. Winds become
light and variable Thursday as high pressure builds in with
prevailingVFR.

Long term... Saturday will beginVFR as high pressure departs. Clouds
will rapidly encroach and descend through the afternoon dropping to
MVFR by sunset. Snow will take hold in the early morning hours of
Sunday will all locations expecting lifr in heavy snow through the
day on Sunday. Some MVFR snow showers will remain through the
mountains on Monday with a steady northwesterly wind throughout
the region as cold air moves into the area.

Marine
Short term through Thursday ... Winds remain gusty in
association with a cold frontal passage this afternoon and
evening. Gales remain in place for all areas but casco bay where
a small craft advisory is in effect. A freezing spray advisory
has been issued for the central and eastern outer waters as well
as penobscot bay overnight and into Thursday morning where
moderate freezing spray will occur.

Long term... A coastal low will rapidly intensify and move
through the gulf of maine from Saturday night into Sunday with
storm force winds possible on the outer waters and gales likely
in the bays. Waves will build to 10-20ft. Have increased both
the wind gusts and wave height as the relatively warmer water
temperatures will allow for unstable conditions near the surface
over the waters and good mixing.

Tides coastal flooding
High astronomical tides will combine with an approaching storm
with strong northeasterly winds and building waves during the
day on Sunday. The timing of the peak winds waves will be
crucial to this forecast and may vary from model run to model
run.

The astronomical high tide in portland will be near 10 am on
Sunday at 11.1 feet. Leaned heavily towards the estofs model
which is more robust in terms of storm surge levels at around
1.3 feet. This value may be higher, but also arrive after high
tide. In any case, this event will likely produce minor coastal
flooding and splash-over around the time of high tide with
pockets of moderate flooding possible from portland and points
south to hampton harbor Sunday morning. Long period swells are
forecast to arrive Sunday night into Monday, so this will need
to be monitored for a continued possibility for some splash-
over.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Wind chill advisory until 10 am est Thursday for mez007>009.

Nh... Wind chill advisory until 10 am est Thursday for nhz001-002.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Thursday for anz153.

Freezing spray advisory until 11 am est Thursday for
anz150>152.

Gale warning until 7 am est Thursday for anz150>152-154.

Jc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 15 mi56 min NW 21 G 29 20°F 43°F5 ft1021.9 hPa
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 24 mi56 min NW 19 G 23 17°F 37°F2 ft1022 hPa
MISM1 - Matinicus Rock, ME 32 mi60 min NW 25 G 28 19°F 1021.2 hPa (+4.6)
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 47 mi70 min NNW 18 G 21 19°F 42°F2 ft1023.3 hPa (+4.3)6°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 48 mi36 min 15°F 37°F

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wiscasset Airport, ME15 mi67 minVar 410.00 miFair12°F-2°F53%1024.5 hPa
Rockland, Knox County Regional Airport, ME19 mi64 minWNW 12 G 1610.00 miFair12°F0°F58%1022.9 hPa

Wind History from IWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3SW34SW9S10
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SW7SW6SW4SW3CalmCalmSW53W45NW7
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW74NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalm333CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Muscongus Harbor, Muscongus Sound, Maine
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Muscongus Harbor
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Thu -- 12:40 AM EST     0.95 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:10 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:54 AM EST     9.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:28 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:34 PM EST     8.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.211.83.45.57.58.99.38.87.45.43.21.30.40.41.43.25.37.18.28.27.45.93.9

Tide / Current Tables for Sheepscot River (off Barter Island), Maine Current
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Sheepscot River (off Barter Island)
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Thu -- 02:20 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:11 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:28 AM EST     0.90 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:20 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:21 AM EST     -1.09 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:09 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:57 PM EST     0.71 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:37 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:38 PM EST     -1.01 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-0.6-0.20.40.80.80.50.30.1-0.3-0.8-1.1-1-0.9-0.6-0.10.50.70.50.30.1-0.1-0.6-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.