Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Damariscotta, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 7:04PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 7:27 PM EDT (23:27 UTC) Moonrise 6:58AMMoonset 7:48PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ152 Coastal Waters From Port Clyde, Me To Cape Elizabeth, Me Out 25 Nm- 451 Pm Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Tonight..E winds around 5 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 15 kt...becoming 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain or snow in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain or snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain or snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
ANZ100 451 Pm Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Low pressure will track south of new england tonight. Northwesterly flow follows this system for Wednesday and Thursday. Low pressure will pass south of the waters Friday into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Damariscotta, ME
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location: 43.93, -69.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 282100
afdgyx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service gray me
500 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will pass to our south tonight. Behind this system,
a northwesterly flow will introduce cooler and drier air into
the region for the second half of the work week. High pressure
will build into the region for Thursday. Low pressure will
approach the region for late Friday into Saturday with snow and
mixed precipitation likely for the region.

Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/
21z update...

have adjusted pops and QPF and corresponding snow amounts based
on the latest few runs of the hrrr which has a good handle on
the convection. One area of lift associated with short wave and
a warm front was producing showers over southern sections of
nh and maine. Elsewhere upslope snow showers were affecting the
mountains and foothills. Precipitation chances were adjusted so
categorical pops were not broad-brushed and instead focused on
these two areas. A few other minor changes were made but nothing
to change the forecast wholesale.

Previous discussion...

a weak shortwave impulse on GOES water vapor imagery was
crossing the mid atlantic region with a 1009 millibar surface
reflection over the DELMARVA region and a weak surface boundary
extending northward into western new england. Widespread low
clouds remained across the region at moment. NWS doppler radar
mosaic showed an expanding area of precipitation across the mid
atlantic to southwestern new england that will cross southern
new hampshire and adjacent southwest coastal maine during the
late afternoon and early evening hours. Elsewhere... Only
scattered precipitation is likely as a cold front over quebec
drops southward across the region overnight. The activity should
taper quickly after midnight as the surface low and shortwave
impulse race offshore.

Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night/
On Wednesday... A freshening northerly breeze in the wake of the
departing coastal low with a few clouds and upslope snow or
rain showers across the higher terrain. Highs will range from
near 40 in the mountains to near 50 over southeast new
hampshire. Some lingering upslope clouds and snow showers
Wednesday night in the mountains... Otherwise mostly clear
elsewhere with a diminishing northerly breeze and the surface
high begins building into eastern new england. Lows will range
from the mid 20s to around 30.

Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/
Confidence is gradually increasing for a fairly significant late
season snow and/or mixed precipitation event starting Friday and
lasting into Saturday. 12z deterministic guidance is in general
agreement today on track of short wave troughs and attendant sfc
low pressure along with subsequent heavy snowfall for at least
the southern half of the cwa. The ECMWF ensemble probabilities
for 6 or more inches of snow have steadily increased over the
last 24 hours, now offering a 50-70 percent chance of 6"+ to a
fairly good chunk of the cwa.

However, with that said, we are still at least 3 days out and
even tight ensemble consensus can still go awry at this time
range. There are also questions about boundary layer
temperatures and perhaps even some warm mid level temps creeping
into southernmost zones. The track of the overall system could
still push further south also. These issues can certainly be the
cause of a lighter snowfall. So being a bit conservative in the
forecast temperature/qpf/snow grids is prudent at this time.

However, we did lower sfc temps Friday afternoon and night as most
raw model guidance slams sfc temps down to 31-33 degrees as
strong uvvs move into the area and allow for cooling via lift,
evaporation, and melting.

At this time I would expect at least interior southern zones to
pick up a plowable snowfall starting Friday afternoon or evening
and ending Saturday. However, there is low confidence at this
time for a lot more over a wide area, although possible. Bears
watch for sure. A heavier snowfall this time of year would
probably cause power outage issues.

Aviation /21z Tuesday through Sunday/
Short term... Ifr to lifr conds persist into tonight. Look for
improvement toVFR during Wed morning, with NW winds gusting to
btw 20 and 25 kt in the afternoon. Sct MVFR conditions will be
psb in mtn -shra/-shsn.

Long term... Ifr conditions possible in snow and mixed
precipitation starting Friday and lasting into Saturday.

Conditions likely improve Saturday night and Sunday.

Marine
Short term... Winds will remain below small craft through
Wednesday afternoon. We'll likely see winds and seas reach
small craft advisory threshold by Wednesday evening outside the
bays in strengthening northerly flow.

Long term... SCA conditions will subside Thursday. They will once
again be possible over the weekend as low pressure passes to the
south of the waters.

Tides/coastal flooding
We're entering the period of high astronomical tides. The
Wednesday and Thursday night high tides... At 105 am Thursday and
152 am Friday respectfully are 11.1 ft mllw (referenced to
portland harbor with a 12.0 ft mllw flood stage). Fortunately
the flow will be offshore so no problems are anticipated with
these particular tides. However, the Friday night high tide at
243 am is an 11.0 ft mllw. With potential for a strengthening
onshore flow prior to this particular high tide cycle... We will
need to monitor this time period for possible coastal flooding
and beach erosion.

Gyx watches/warnings/advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis...

near term... Hanes
short term... Schwibs
long term... Ekster
aviation...

marine...

tides/coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 15 mi84 min E 9.7 G 12 35°F 38°F4 ft1015.9 hPa
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 24 mi84 min E 7.8 G 7.8 36°F 36°F2 ft1015.6 hPa
MISM1 - Matinicus Rock, ME 32 mi28 min E 8 G 8.9 36°F 1015.5 hPa (+0.0)35°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 47 mi38 min ESE 5.8 G 5.8 37°F 38°F3 ft1015.8 hPa (+0.0)37°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 48 mi40 min 36°F 37°F1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wiscasset Airport, ME15 mi35 minN 010.00 miOvercast36°F35°F97%1016.4 hPa
Rockland, Knox County Regional Airport, ME19 mi32 minN 010.00 miOvercast35°F33°F93%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from IWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr44Calm33N4CalmCalm3Calm33Calm3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalm
1 day agoS4CalmS4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4E3E5E4E6E7E7E8
G16
E6E8E9E75
2 days agoNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalm554CalmCalmCalmS7S8SE8S7S6SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Muscongus Harbor, Muscongus Sound, Maine
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Muscongus Harbor
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Tue -- 05:43 AM EDT     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:50 AM EDT     10.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:05 PM EDT     -0.96 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.18.96.63.71.1-0.5-0.80.32.55.58.210.110.59.77.74.92-0.1-1-0.31.64.47.49.7

Tide / Current Tables for Sheepscot River (off Barter Island), Maine Current
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Sheepscot River (off Barter Island)
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:43 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:38 AM EDT     -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:12 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:19 AM EDT     1.10 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:58 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:59 PM EDT     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:32 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:43 PM EDT     1.19 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.3-0.1-0.8-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.8-0.20.61.110.60.3-0-0.6-1.2-1.4-1.2-0.9-0.40.411.20.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.