Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Henderson, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 7:29PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 5:10 AM EDT (09:10 UTC) Moonrise 7:00AMMoonset 8:30PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 747 Pm Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Tonight..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. A chance of rain in the evening...then rain likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Rain during the day...then rain showers likely Friday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LOZ045 Expires:201703290315;;233829 FZUS51 KBUF 282347 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 747 PM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LOZ045-290315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Henderson, NY
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location: 43.93, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 290816
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
416 am edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will build across the great lakes today bringing
clearing skies and seasonable temperatures. Our next storm system
will bring rain later Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will run
near to slightly above normal through Friday.

Near term /through tonight/
High pressure will build in across the great lakes today bringing
drier air and seasonal temperatures. IR satellite imagery reveals
cloud cover eroding from north to south across lake ontario, expect
this clearing trend to continue across western and north central ny
through the morning. Some patchy areas of fog may linger on the
higher terrain of the southern tier and northern finger lakes in the
upslope northerly flow. This lingering cloud cover and high
elevation fog will clear quickly as the drier air builds in toward
sunrise.

During the day today, surface ridging will continue to build over
western and central new york. Colder, but much drier, air will spill
across lake ontario, with 850 mb temps falling from around 0c now to
about -8c by 15z. This should result in a very modest lake response,
given the dry airmass, and thus this should result in a diurnal
cumulus field south of lake ontario and across the northern finger
lakes. Outside of this area, it will be mostly sunny. Temperatures
will be seasonable with highs in the 40s.

Tonight high pressure will settle across the region with mostly
clear skies and light winds resulting in decent radiational cooling
conditions. Low temperatures will drop below freezing for most
locations, with the coldest readings in the mid 20s in the north
country.

Short term /Thursday through Friday night/
Expansive high pressure centered over northern quebec Thursday
morning will move slowly but steadily eastward, allowing low
pressure to eject from the central plains. Mid and upper level
moisture and lift increases along a boundary that extends well out
ahead of the system. Model soundings point to a dry sub 700 mb layer
which will persist into Thursday afternoon. This should help to
delay the onset of precipitation until mid to late afternoon over the
western counties. Otherwise, lowering and thickening clouds can be
expected over our region during the course of Thursday with
temperatures climbing to near 50 degrees in the west and the mid 40s
for the north country.

Increasing isentropic ascent and strong northward moisture transport
Thursday night will overcome in-place dry air across the area from
southwest to northeast. Thus, a steady increase in precipitation
with the steadiest/most widespread precipitation arriving during the
late evening/overnight hours and continuing through at least Friday
morning. Model soundings do not suggest steep enough lapse rates
aloft, so without significant elevated cape, will continue to keep
the mention of thunder out of the forecast.

For the most part precipitation type should not be an issue, with
most expected to fall as rain as a lack of true cold air helping to
sufficiently warm boundary layer temperatures. However, the
expectation could be across the north country as marginal thermal
profiles could allow for a brief period of mixed precipitation late
Thursday night/early Friday morning.

The complex system responsible for the all of the unsettled weather
will push to our east by Friday night. While the bulk of the
associated lift and mid level moisture will be removed, there will
still be the chance for some leftover showers, especially along and
east of the axis of the surface trough, which will be aligned over
the genesee valley for the first half of the night. Some of the
lingering precipitation could change to a wintry mix late.

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/
There is high confidence that this will be a relatively mild
period... As a progressive ridge will make its way across the eastern
half of the country. This ridge will also keep the bulk of the
period rainfree. The tranquil weather will come to an end though by
Monday night and Tuesday... As the next southern stream system will
lift northeast out of the lower mississippi valley. The details...

a storm system exiting off the east coast will support some leftover
nuisance showers across the region Saturday morning. In its wake...

expansive high pressure centered over hudson bay will build south
across the lower great lakes Saturday afternoon through Monday. This
will promote fair dry weather. While high temperatures will
generally be in the 40s on Saturday... The mercury will climb into
the 50s for Sunday and Monday.

Monday night and Tuesday... Low pressure over the lower mississippi
valley is forecast to push north towards the lower great lakes. Most
of the ensemble members of the GEFS along with the operational
ecmwf track the broad low to our west within a negatively tilted
trough... Which will once again set up a scenario where we experience
another round of rain.

Aviation /08z Wednesday through Sunday/
A stratus deck across the region will erode from north to south
during the early morning hours, with clearing already reaching near
kart and the south lake ontario shoreline from kiag to kroc. This
clearing will continue to progress southward before sunrise, with
station becomingVFR. Kjhw will see ifr conditions persist for a few
more hours, with the linger moist upslope flow, but will see
improvement to MVFR and perhaps evenVFR by around sunrise.

Expect a scattered cumulus deck around 3kft to 5kft to redevelop
south of lake ontario between 12 to 15z and persist through the
afternoon as colder, but very dry, air spills across lake ontario.

Outlook...

tonight and Thursday...VFR.

Thursday night into Saturday... MVFR/ifr with occasional rain showers.

Sunday... Some improvement toVFR possible.

Marine
Light northerly winds will persist today as strong canadian high
pressure builds across the great lakes... However winds and waves are
expected to remain below advisory levels. Winds will turn easterly
Thursday and Friday as our next storm system passes south of the
great lakes. Winds will approach 15-20 knots but higher waves should
remain in canadian waters.

Buf watches/warnings/advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Church
near term... Church
short term... Tma
long term... Rsh
aviation... Church
marine... Church


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 32 mi40 min 34°F1021.3 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 35 mi40 min N 9.9 G 13 37°F 1021.3 hPa33°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 67 mi40 min 35°F 1021.1 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 85 mi70 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 38°F 1022.7 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY13 mi14 minN 010.00 miFair28°F28°F100%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmW3W3N7NE10N7NE7NE11NE8NE9NE9N9N7N6CalmN3CalmCalmN3N3N4Calm
1 day agoS4CalmS5SE95S4S6S6S7S5S4S5S5SW3SW4S3S3S3S3S4SW3SW6SW3Calm
2 days agoE8E9E9E8NE7NE8E10NE8NE9NE9E4NE4E6CalmCalmNE3S5SE4S3Calm3CalmS4S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.