Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Henderson, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 8:00PM Sunday August 20, 2017 7:51 AM EDT (11:51 UTC) Moonrise 3:47AMMoonset 6:25PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 129 Am Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 5 am edt early this morning...
Overnight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day... Then showers and Thunderstorms Tuesday night. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ045 Expires:201708200915;;657818 FZUS51 KBUF 200529 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 129 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-045-200915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Henderson, NY
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location: 43.93, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 201040
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
640 am edt Sun aug 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will move off the the mid-atlantic coast today into
tonight. Return flow developing between this surface high and the
next approaching low pressure system will build heat and humidity
through Tuesday. A strong cold front will cross the region late
Tuesday, and may be accompanied by strong to severe thunderstorms.

The work week will end with a touch of fall in the air as a
sprawling canadian high pressure builds in cooler and drier air.

Near term through tonight
Goes-16 advanced nighttime microphysics rgb this morning shows areas
of valley across the western southern tier. Any patchy fog will
dissipate after sunrise today, with diurnal heating and
increased mixing. A few to scattered diurnal cumulus will
develop inland from the lake shadows from niagara falls to
rochester and southward into the upper genesee valley and finger
lakes. Otherwise, expect abundant sunshine elsewhere today as
high pressure and increase subsidence builds into the region,
with very seasonable temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Tonight, high pressure will slide off the mid-atlantic coast with
light southerly return flow developing. Nocturnal decoupling of
winds in interior valleys, along with mainly clear skies, will
support another round of patchy southern tier valley fog. Otherwise,
temperatures tonight will run a touch warmer than last night, with
lows in the mid 50s in interior valleys to the low to mid 60s across
the lake plains.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
On Monday surface high pressure will drift off the mid atlantic
coast and take up the classic late summer bermuda high position,
pumping increasing heat and humidity into our region. The latest 00z
nam develops widely scattered convection across the higher terrain
of the western southern tier and western finger lakes during the
afternoon. Other guidance such as the GFS and ECMWF are less
aggressive with the moisture return, and warming mid level temps will
likely provide a cap to deep moist convection. With this in mind,
have kept the Monday forecast dry. Viewing conditions for the
partial solar eclipse should be good, with just scattered diurnal
cumulus and thin high cirrus. 850mb temps will warm to around +17c
by afternoon, supporting highs in the mid to upper 80s across lower
elevations inland from the lakes.

Monday night a mid level trough will sharpen over the upper midwest,
with a gradual increase in moisture and ascent downstream bringing
thickening clouds and possibly a few scattered showers and
thunderstorms to our region overnight. A southerly breeze and
increasing clouds will keep temperatures very warm, with lows in the
lower 70s on the lake plains of western ny, and mid to upper 60s
elsewhere.

The biggest period of interest over the next week will focus on
Tuesday and Tuesday night. A longwave trough will deepen over the
great lakes region, with an embedded strong shortwave approaching
our region late Tuesday, then crossing Tuesday night. An associated
strong cold front will move through the area Tuesday night. As is
almost always the case, the cold front will be preceded by a pre-
frontal trough Tuesday afternoon and evening, which will interact
with lake breeze boundaries and provide an initial focus for
convection Tuesday afternoon, followed by another round Tuesday
night with the actual cold front. It will again be warm and humid,
with highs in the mid 80s inland from the lakes. Southwest winds
will become quite gusty as the pressure gradient tightens,
especially northeast of lake erie where gusts to 40 mph are possible.

This system will have severe weather potential, with strong deep
layer shear developing across the warm sector and strong forcing
provided by the deepening mid level system. One potential negative
will be the warm mid level temperatures and poor lapse rates which
could temper instability to some extent, although cooling mid level
temps late in the day with the approach of the mid level trough may
mitigate this. The primary risk will be damaging winds given the
strong unidirectional flow regime. Pwat will be high and storms will
produce heavy downpours, but fast storm motion will likely prevent
much risk of flooding.

Tuesday night the cold front sweeps across the area with showers and
storms ending from west to east overnight.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
A seasonably deep longwave trough will become established for the
second half of the week over the great lakes and northeast, bringing
a period of below normal temperatures to our region.

Wednesday and Thursday a northwest flow across the lakes and cold
air aloft will support a good deal of lake effect and upslope
clouds, and possibly even a few scattered showers at times. The
airmass is plenty cold enough for lake effect rain, but short
northwest fetch and a dry synoptic scale background will keep this
limited. Surface high pressure will begin to build into the area by
Friday and should bring an end to any scattered showers.

Temperatures will bottom out on Thursday and Friday when highs may
struggle to get out of the 60s even at lower elevations.

Next weekend high pressure will settle directly overhead. This
should provide a dry and sunny weekend with highs in the 70s and
cool nights with low humidity and light winds.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
Any valley fog will quickly dissipate this morning, with mostly
clear skies and some scattered diurnal cumulus resulting in
widespreadVFR conditions during the day.

More patchy southern tier valley fog is expect tonight with
localized ifr, otherwise widespreadVFR will prevail under mostly
clear skies.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR, with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Tuesday night... MVFR ifr, with showers and thunderstorms
likely.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR MVFR with a chance of
showers.

Marine
Northwest wind on the east end of lake ontario will continue to
subside this morning as a ridge of high pressure settles over the
lake today. Otherwise, a stiff lake breeze will develop on lake erie
this afternoon as the surface high slides off the mid-atlantic
coast. Expect winds and waves today will remain below small craft
criteria level, although lake erie may be a bit choppy this
afternoon.

Lighter southerly flow Monday and Monday night will direct any waves
mainly toward canadian waters. Then a strong cold front will cross
the region Tuesday which will eventually require small craft
advisory headlines that may linger through Wednesday or Wednesday
night. A few strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are also
possible Tuesday ahead of the cold front.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Church
near term... Church
short term... Hitchcock
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Church
marine... Church


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 32 mi52 min 73°F1015.6 hPa (+2.3)
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 34 mi52 min WNW 9.7 G 12 67°F 71°F2 ft1016.6 hPa (+2.1)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 35 mi52 min WNW 11 G 13 69°F 1016.6 hPa (+2.1)62°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 67 mi52 min 64°F 1015.2 hPa (+2.4)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 85 mi52 min SW 7 G 8.9 64°F 1018.3 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY13 mi1.9 hrsN 010.00 miFair60°F60°F100%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7W6SW13W10SW11SW16
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SW9SW10SW7SW6SW8SW8SW7W8W8W6W6W7NW5W5CalmCalm
1 day agoSW7SW8SW11W9SW13
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2 days agoCalmCalm3E3Calm4CalmCalmE4W3CalmE3NE4E4E4SE3SE8S8S6
G16
SE7S8S8S8SW8
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.