Wednesday, January24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Henderson, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 5:05PM Wednesday January 24, 2018 6:48 AM EST (11:48 UTC) Moonrise 11:27AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 623 Am Est Wed Jan 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Scattered snow showers early. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Thursday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Mostly Sunny.
Thursday night..Light and variable winds. Becoming mainly clear.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then rain and snow likely Saturday night.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. Rain and snow likely during the day, then snow and rain showers likely Sunday night. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.
LOZ045 Expires:201801241600;;922695 FZUS51 KBUF 241123 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 623 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-241600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Henderson, NY
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location: 43.93, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 241111
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
611 am est Wed jan 24 2018

Synopsis
A northwesterly flow of colder air will produce some nuisance lake
effect snow showers southeast of lakes erie and ontario today... With
these then coming to an end tonight as high pressure and drier air
build into the region. Otherwise generally dry weather and below
normal temperatures will prevail through Thursday before milder
conditions return for the end of the week... Along with increasing
chances for some rain showers by Saturday as another cold front
approaches.

Near term through tonight
A seasonably cold northwesterly flow featuring 850 mb temps of -12c
to -15c will be found across the region today... And this in conjunction
with orographic influences will help to generate some lingering lake
snows southeast of lakes erie and ontario. This stated... These will
merely be of the light nuisance-type variety given low capping inversion
heights of only 4 kft and a shortening northwesterly fetch... Which will
help to keep the snows multibanded and therefore weaker more transient
in nature. In general... We are only expecting an additional inch or two
of accumulation southeast of lake ontario... And an inch or less in more
scattered snow showers southeast of lake erie... Where the activity will
be further inhibited by lingering ice cover. Elsewhere it will be drier
with only a few scattered flurries or light snow showers... With all
areas seeing temperatures struggle to get much above the lower to mid
20s in our newly established colder airmass.

Tonight high pressure and much drier air will build into the region.

In conjunction with the low level flow becoming light northerly... This
will help to squelch any lingering scattered snow showers south and
southeast of the lakes... With quiet and dry conditions otherwise
prevailing under slowly diminishing lower clouds from north to south.

Given the much colder start and the lightening winds eroding lower
clouds... Overnight lows will be much colder... With mins ranging from
around zero across the north country to the 10 to 15 range south
of lake ontario.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
It will be a quiet end to the week, as an expansive ridge of high
pressure extending from hudson bay to the gulf of mexico will cross
our region, bringing fair skies and generally light winds for much
of the period. Temperatures will run on the chilly side on Thursday,
as the region will still be subject to cold northwesterly flow
aloft. With that in mind, look for highs in the 20s on Thursday.

Warm advection will begin to kick Thursday night, as the center of
the surface high shifts to the east of the forecast area.

Temperatures shouldn't run as cold as Wednesday night, with lows in
the upper teens in western new york, though we may still see single
digits and possibly a few sub-zero spots in the north country, where
colder air will still have a hold, and clear skies light winds will
promote radiational cooling.

As the high moves off the eastern seaboard on Friday, southerly
return flow will strengthen across the eastern half of the country.

This, in combination with upper level ridging moving overhead will
boost temperatures across the region, with temperatures climbing
well into the 40s across western new york, with a few spots
potentially touching 50 degrees where downsloping will add a little
extra boost. The warmer air will be slower to reach areas east of
lake ontario, where highs will stay in the 30s.

As we move into Friday night, southerly winds will strengthen across
the area, as the pressure gradient tightens between the high off the
east coast and low pressure tracking in the vicinity of james bay.

Increasing moisture aloft and the approach of the upper level jet
will usher in increasing clouds across the lower great lakes Friday
night. Ongoing warm advection, generally downsloping breezy
southerly winds, and increasing clouds will produce a seasonably
mild night, with lows ranging from near 40 across far western ny, to
the low 30s in the north country.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Yet another january thaw will extend into the weekend, as gomex-
sourced sourced air will continue to work across the region on
southwesterly return flow around a strong high centered over the
western atlantic. Rain chances will be on the increase as we move
through the day on Saturday and deeper moisture advects eastwards
into the forecast area in advance of a robust upper level trough
crossing the northern plains and western great lakes.

Proceeding into Saturday night and Sunday, model guidance
continues to suggest the development of a surface low over the
northeastern u.S., corresponding to the right entrance region of
the upper level jet and a strong 500mb vortmax ejecting out of
the middle mississippi valley, however the individual models
continue to display differences in the timing position of these
contributing factors and subsequently the location of the
developing low. This has important ramifications for the amount
and type of precipitation that we will receive across our
forecast area this weekend. The general consensus is starting to
lean towards the heaviest rains remaining east of our area,
more over central eastern new york, with an increasing potential
for snow across our forecast area on Sunday, as latest general
consensus places our area on the western flank of the developing
low. To summarize, it looks like precipitation is still likely
this weekend, however there is increasing uncertainty regarding
type and amounts. This should come into sharper focus as we move
through the rest of the week and model solutions come into
better alignment.

While temperatures Saturday are expected to run well above average
ahead of the approaching upper level trough, and readings on Sunday
will be dependent on the final location of the developing surface
low, guidance is in good agreement that we will be thrust back into
winter by Monday, as the surface low moves out to sea and a deep
upper level trough moves across the great lakes. Temperatures will
fall below freezing for Monday, and we should remain locked in the
20s for Tuesday. Brisk northwesterly flow will make it feel quite
colder, and lake effect snows can be expected southeast of the
lakes. However, looking deeper into next week, it appears that the
progressive pattern will continue across north america, with the next
ridge bringing yet another warmup by the middle of next week.

Aviation 11z Wednesday through Sunday
A northwesterly flow of cold air will help maintain some weak lake
snows and localized reductions to ifr southeast of the lakes into
this morning... With this activity then diminishing this afternoon
and evening as high pressure and drier air builds into the region.

In general... Widespread MVFR ceilings this morning should tend to
improve toVFR this afternoon and tonight as the high builds into
our area.

Outlook...

Thursday and Friday...VFR.

Saturday...VFR MVFR with a chance of rain showers.

Saturday night and Sunday... Ifr MVFR in numerous to widespread
rain showers.

Marine
Brisk northwesterlies early this morning will steadily diminish
today and tonight as high pressure builds into the region. To cover
the lingering brisk winds and associated wave action... Small craft
advisories remain in effect as outlined below.

The aforementioned high will then slowly drift eastward into new
england Thursday and Friday... While maintaining quiet and relatively
tranquil conditions across the lower lakes region. The next chance
for advisory-worthy winds and waves will then arrive Friday night
and Saturday... As the pressure gradient across our region tightens
out ahead of an approaching cold front.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for loz043-
044.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
loz042-045.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Jjr
short term... Wood
long term... Wood
aviation... Jjr
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 32 mi48 min 33°F1014.2 hPa (+5.5)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 35 mi48 min WNW 25 G 35 23°F 1015.2 hPa (+4.0)17°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 67 mi48 min 14°F 1013.8 hPa (+5.3)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 85 mi48 min WNW 21 G 25 24°F 1016.9 hPa (+3.7)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY13 mi1.9 hrsWNW 1410.00 miOvercast22°F16°F78%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE11NE10NE13NE14NE14NE13NE16NE15NE13NE14NE12NE10NE6N6--N3NE3N4NE4CalmS11
G23
S14
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2 days agoS4S4SW5S6SW9SW7SW9SW6SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE3E3NE3E3NE4N5NE5NE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.