Monday, May22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Henderson, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:32PM Monday May 22, 2017 5:34 PM EDT (21:34 UTC) Moonrise 2:50AMMoonset 3:40PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 431 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy early...then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..South winds less than 10 knots becoming east. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..East winds less than 10 knots becoming north. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Showers likely during the day...then a chance of showers Friday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..North winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ045 Expires:201705230300;;043840 FZUS51 KBUF 222037 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 431 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LOZ045-230300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Henderson, NY
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location: 43.93, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 222026
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
426 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Synopsis
Showers east of lake ontario will taper off this afternoon with
clouds slowly clearing from west to east during the late afternoon
and evening. A weak ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather
Tuesday through most of Wednesday. Low pressure will then bring more
rain to the region Wednesday night and Thursday.

Near term /through Tuesday/
An area of showers along a pre-frontal trough will exit the eastern
lake ontario region through mid afternoon. The actual surface cold
front is lagging the pre-frontal trough by about 50 miles and may
produce a few more scattered showers through late afternoon east of
lake ontario. Otherwise the rest of the area will remain dry, with
clouds giving way to increasing amounts of sunshine across western
ny through late afternoon with post-frontal drying and a developing
stable lake shadow off lake erie combining to dissipate cloud cover.

A weak ridge of high pressure surface and aloft will build over the
lower great lakes tonight. Subsidence and drying associated with
this high will continue to support clearing this evening, with the
eastern lake ontario region the last area to clear overnight. The
clearing skies and a fairly cool airmass will allow for some
radiational cooling overnight. Expect lows in the upper 40s to around
50 on the lake plains, with low to mid 40s in the cooler sections of
the interior southern tier and lewis county.

On Tuesday the weak surface ridge will remain in place from the
upper ohio valley to new england. Meanwhile warm advection and a
weak mid level shortwave will move northeast across southern
ontario. This feature will have little direct impact on our area,
with any scattered showers remaining north of the canadian border.

It will bring some increase in moisture and cloud cover, with both
mid level clouds and diurnal cumulus developing across the region.

Stable lake shadows will allow more sunshine northeast of lakes erie
and ontario. Temperatures will rebound, with highs in the lower to
mid 70s away from lake influences. Weak synoptic scale flow and
strong differential heating will allow local lake breezes to develop
with winds becoming onshore along all the shorelines in the
afternoon, keeping temperatures cooler within a few miles of the
lakes.

Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday night/
Bubble of high pressure becoming centered across new england will
maintain dry weather across the area through the first half of
Wednesday. Overnight lows Tuesday night will fall back into the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

High pressure will exit the region Wednesday as a deepening surface
low slowly tracks into the ohio valley. Model tracks differ
slightly, but most of the guidance eventually tracks this low across
ohio Wednesday night and across lake erie on Thursday. Increasing
moisture transport and lift on the front side of the approaching low
will eventually allow precipiation to blossom across the area. Onset
time may be slowed a bit from continuity based on slower track of
approaching surface low. Warm air advection and slower timing of
precipitation onset should allow high temperatures Wednesday to
reach the lower to mid 70s.

Does look like there will be at least a solid 6 to 12 hour period of
fairly steady rain starting late Wednesday in the far west and
filling in across the rest of the area through Thursday. The steady
rain should taper to more showery weather by Thursday night as the
surface low starts to shift east of the area.

Long term /Friday through Monday/
Our region will be under the influence of a progressive... Northern
branch of a split flow during this period. While this will allow for
fairly frequent shower activity... A closed off gomex will keep
rainfall amounts to a minimum. This pattern will also keep
temperatures from straying too far from normal... But on average...

they will tend to run a few degrees above typical late may values.

Breaking this down on a day to day basis...

a stacked storm system over eastern new york Friday morning will
exit across new england during the afternoon and evening. This will
keep some showers in place over our region... Particularly east of
lake ontario where pops will be raised to likely. Temperatures on
Friday will climb into the 60s.

Ridging will build across the lower great lakes late Friday night
and Saturday. While the models are not convinced that dry weather
will prevail during this time frame... Am fairly confident that the
aforementioned ridging and lack of mid level moisture will translate
into fair dry conditions. This should also help Saturday afternoon
temperatures climb into the 70s across most of the western counties.

As the ridge pushes east of our region Sunday and Monday... The next
longwave trough will dig across the upper portions of the
mississippi valley and great lakes region. This will result in
deteriorating conditions... Particularly late Sunday into Monday. In
other words... As it stands now we should be able to get through most
of Sunday before the skies 'open' again. Given the inconsistencies
between the medium range ensembles though... Confidence is lower than
normal.

Aviation /21z Monday through Saturday/
An area of showers will exit the eastern lake ontario region this
afternoon as a cold front sweeps east across the area. Abundant low
stratus along and behind the cold front will continue to bring a mix
ofVFR and MVFR CIGS to the region this afternoon, with skies slowly
clearing and returning toVFR from west to east from late afternoon
through the evening.

A weak ridge of high pressure will then build over the lower great
lakes region tonight and Tuesday withVFR prevailing. Weak warm
advection and diurnal cumulus will bring some increase in cloud
cover on Tuesday, with CIGS remainingVFR.

Outlook...

Tuesday night and Wednesday... MainlyVFR.

Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Saturday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
Southwest flow in the wake of a departing cold front will continue
to bring small craft advisory conditions to lake erie through early
this evening with waves building to 3-5 feet. Winds will be lower on
lake ontario and also shorter duration, which will prevent any
notable wave action. Weak high pressure will then build over the
lower great lakes tonight through Wednesday, providing a period of
light winds and flat wave action through the middle of the week.

Buf watches/warnings/advisories
Ny... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for nyz010-
019-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lez020-
040-041.

Synopsis... Hitchcock
near term... Hitchcock
short term... Tma
long term... Rsh
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 32 mi46 min 51°F1011.5 hPa
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 34 mi94 min W 18 G 19 50°F 45°F1 ft1012.6 hPa (+0.1)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 35 mi46 min W 14 G 20 53°F 1013.3 hPa46°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 67 mi46 min 60°F 1011.3 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 85 mi34 min WSW 13 G 25 60°F 1015.2 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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N9
G12
N9

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY13 mi38 minSW 12 G 2010.00 miOvercast58°F52°F81%1012.8 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3S4N3E5Calm44S4S453SW6
G15
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1 day agoN11NE10NE6NE6NE3NE3E3E3E3E4CalmE3E5E4E4E6E6SE8S8S7SE8SE9S7
G14
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2 days agoW8SW6W4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE6NE8NE8NE7NE5NE10NE14NE14NE12NE14
G19
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NE9
G18
NE11NE12
G18
NE10NE12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.