Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sackets Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:04PM Thursday April 27, 2017 10:31 PM EDT (02:31 UTC) Moonrise 6:10AMMoonset 8:35PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1040 Am Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..North winds less than 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ045 Expires:201704272115;;349291 FZUS51 KBUF 271440 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1040 AM EDT THU APR 27 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LOZ044-045-272115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sackets Harbor, NY
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location: 43.95, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 280220
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1020 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017

Synopsis
Showers and thunderstorms will cross the area tonight along and
ahead of a cold front. Some of these storms may produce gusty winds
and brief heavy downpours this evening. Cooler air will move into
the region behind the front Friday and last through the weekend,
with showers possible through the weekend, as a frontal boundary
stalls near the lower great lakes.

Near term /through Friday/
A sharp mid level trough will move northeast from the great lakes
into ontario and quebec, with a cold front and pre-frontal trough
moving east across the area tonight. Large scale ascent ahead of the
trough and low level convergence along mainly the pre-frontal trough
will continue to support showers and scattered storms, moving from
west to east across the area.

Regional radars showing several broken lines of showers and storms
now moving out of western ny late this evening. The best line of
storms is found along the genesee valley, and will spread into
central ny and the eastern lake ontario region by shortly after
midnight.

Latest SPC mesoanalysis indicating instability is fading across the
area, with less than 500j/kg of SBCAPE left and growing cinh for
surface based parcels. The stabilizing boundary layer will continue
to force storms to weaken, although a few may still produce gusty
winds and brief downpours on their trek east across the area. The
risk of any severe weather is very marginal, but not quite zero.

Another line of scattered showers will accompany the cold front
proper, lagging the convective line by a couple of hours. After
that, expect quiet weather for the rest of the night and into Friday
as cooler, drier air filters across the region behind the cold
front, with temperatures dropping into the 40s by daybreak across
all but the far eastern portions of the forecast area. Lingering
post-frontal cloudiness should give way to sunny breaks by late
morning, as high pressure moves across the region, before high
clouds return once again later in the day, courtesy of warm
advection aloft.

Short term /Friday night through Monday night/
A baroclinic zone will become established across the forecast area
Saturday and Sunday as we will be sitting on the northern periphery
of a ridge just off the southeastern coast. Weak waves will ripple
along this frontal boundary promoting a chance of showers through
much of the weekend, however the weekend will likely be far from a
washout as overall forcing is weak and sporadic. In fact mid-range
models are struggling with the subtle forcing along this boundary,
with the gfs/nam solutions remaining wetter on Saturday, while the
ec continues to suggest mostly dry weather until later in the day.

For now have kept Saturday pop at chance given the uncertainty.

Temperatures will be warmest across the southern tier and cooler
across the lake plains and north country with highs ranging from the
low 60s to the low 70s.

By Sunday the boundary will evolve into a warm front pushing
northward as a deep low pressure system develops across the central
plains. As this low pressure system tracks toward the great lakes
region forcing will increase along the warm front, but it will also
move northward into southern ontario and quebec. Thus we may see a
period of showers early Sunday before breaking into the warm sector
later Sunday and Sunday night with a majority of that time being dry
and warmer. A sharp temperature difference can be expected across
the region as the warm front moves northward with highs in the low
50s in the north country and along the lake ontario shoreline to the
mid to upper 70s across the western southern tier.

By Monday, the anomalously deep low pressure system will track
through the upper great lakes while pushing a strong cold front
across the region Monday. Depending on the timing of this front, if
it lines up with peak diurnal heating, could result in strong to
potentially severe thunderstorms for the region, along with locally
heavy rainfall. The front will exit to our east Monday night giving
way to a drying a cooling trend. Very warm temperatures are expected
in the warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front with highs
well into the 70s and even the 80s across the lake plains and
genesee valley.

Long term /Tuesday through Thursday/
A seasonably deep surface low passing northwest of our region will
help usher in much cooler weather with below normal temperatures
expected. This airmass will arrive behind the cold front on Tuesday
along with a chance of some scattered showers and gusty winds.

Strong cold air advection with a source region over central quebec
will lower 850mb temps a few degrees celsius below zero which will
translate into surface temperatures that run very cool Tuesday
afternoon. Current expectations are highs which only top out in the
50s.

This strong cold air advection looks to also support very gusty
winds Tuesday with a 50+ knot low level jet streaking across the
eastern great lakes. The depth and track of the low and current
forecast strength of the low level jet in the 12z GFS could support
possible advisory level wind gusts. If the low level jet verifies
stronger such as the near 60 knot jet that the 12z ec shows, than a
late season high wind event may be possible. This threat of gusty
winds is included in the hazardous weather outlook.

Winds will slacken off Tuesday night with below normal temperatures
then remaining in place Tuesday night through Wednesday and likely
Thursday with continued cold air advection as a mid-level trough
axis shifts east across our region followed by another trough
digging into the central states. Cool air instability showers will
be possible through Wednesday with the coldest core of below normal
air aloft passing by. Have continued low to slight chances of
showers for this. On Thursday medium range models show the digging
trough over the central states will kick off a surface low along the
appalachians midweek which could lift some showers into our forecast
area from the south by Thursday. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights
look to dip into the upper 30s to low 40s then highs on Wednesday
and Thursday only rising into the low to mid 50s.

Aviation /03z Friday through Tuesday/
A pre-frontal trough will move east across the area this evening
with a few broken lines of showers and storms, lasting 2-3 hours at
any one location. A few of the storms may contain wind gusts to
around 35 knots and frequent lightning. Cigs/vsby will beVFR most
of the time except in the heavier storms which will contain
brief/local MVFR/ifr.

The rain will end from west to east overnight following the passage
of the cold front. Most areas will remainVFR with just a few
patches of MVFR CIGS for a brief time across higher terrain and
possibly northeast of the lakes. A weak ridge of high pressure will
bringVFR conditions Friday, with increasing mid level clouds from
west to east later in the afternoon ahead of the next system.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Monday... MVFR to locally ifr with showers and thunderstorms likely.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
Generally quiet conditions on the lakes will give way to unsettled
weather this evening, as showers and thunderstorms cross the area
ahead of an approaching cold front. Some of these storms may produce
gusty winds and higher waves. Behind the front, expect freshening
southwesterly winds to generate moderately choppy conditions on the
east ends of the lakes later tonight into Friday.

Tranquil conditons will return to the lakes Friday night into
Saturday, as a weak area of high pressure moves over the lakes,
followed by a trough of low pressure that will set up across the
lakes, resulting in a weak pressure gradient. Northeasterly winds
will then freshen Saturday night into Sunday, as an area of low
pressure over the lower missouri valley deepens and a warm front
lifts across the lakes.

Climate
The last days of april will finish with above normal
temperatures, warm enough that it will send our climate sites
towards a top 10 warmest april on record. The degree of
anomalous warmth has been greater towards the west, where
climate site buffalo may reach the warmest april on record.

Below are the warmest aprils on record.

Buffalo
rank... .Value (f)... ..Year
1... ... ..51.3... ... ... 1921
2... ... ..51.1... ... ... 2010
3... ... ..51.0... ... ... 1955
4... ... ..50.9... ... ... 2008
5... ... ..50.8... ... ... 1878
current april average temperature through april 26th: 49.6f
rochester
rank... .Value (f)... ..Year
1... ... ..52.6... ... ... 1878
2... ... ..52.5... ... ... 1921
3... ... ..52.4... ... ... 2010
4... ... ..52.3... ... ... 2008
5... ... ..51.4... ... ... 1915
current april average temperature through april 26th: 50.4f
watertown
rank... .Value (f)... ..Year
1... ... ..49.1... ... ... 1987
2... ... ..48.7... ... ... 1955
3... ... ..48.7... ... ... 2010
4... ... ..48.3... ... ... 1968
5... ... ..48.2... ... ... 2008
current april average temperature through april 26th: 46.6f
temperature records for buffalo and rochester begin 1871, while
watertown's history is a bit shorter, with temperature records
beginning in 1949.

Buf watches/warnings/advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hitchcock/wood
near term... Hitchcock/wood
short term... Church
long term... Smith
aviation... Hitchcock/wood
marine... Hitchcock/wood
climate... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 29 mi44 min 44°F1003.8 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 38 mi44 min SSW 9.9 G 18 77°F 1004.8 hPa57°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 39 mi92 min WSW 16 G 21 49°F 39°F1 ft1004.5 hPa (+3.1)
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 63 mi44 min 76°F 1003.7 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 89 mi92 min W 12 G 19 70°F 1005.1 hPa (+3.1)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY9 mi96 minS 11 G 1910.00 miFair76°F60°F58%1002.5 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY24 mi94 minSE 710.00 miFair73°F59°F63%1003.8 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E4NE3CalmNE3E4E5NE4SE346SE76S7S84S7S8S10
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1 day agoN3NE4E7NE7NE6NE4NE5E7NE6NE5NE6NE64N5CalmCalmNW5W8SW7W6N8N3CalmSE4
2 days agoNE10NE10NE10NE8NE8NE9NE10NE7NE7E5CalmSE7E7NE8E7E6E5SE3NE6NE3E3E4E4E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.