Tuesday, October24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sackets Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 6:05PM Tuesday October 24, 2017 7:20 AM EDT (11:20 UTC) Moonrise 10:54AMMoonset 8:32PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 440 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Rain likely after midnight. Rain late. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming north. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
LOZ045 Expires:201710240300;;304556 FZUS51 KBUF 232040 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 440 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-240300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sackets Harbor, NY
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location: 43.95, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 241046
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
646 am edt Tue oct 24 2017

Synopsis
Behind a cold front cooler air deepen across the region, which
will progressively lowering daytime highs through Thursday. This
cooler air will also begin to produce lake effect rain showers
to the northeast of the great lakes, late Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Afternoon highs will rebound upward Friday and into
the weekend.

Near term through tonight
A cold front continues to push its way across the region this
morning, now advancing across the eastern waters of lake ontario and
the finger lakes region. Regional radars display a large area of
rain showers from about wayne county eastward. Meanwhile a narrow
band of showers and gusty wind ahead of the upper level low is
tracking across lake erie, and clipping portions of far western
portions of wny.

Rain showers will exit the eastern zones this morning with the
passing of the cold front. By late this morning and then through a
good portion of the night our region should be in a relatively
calmer... As we lie between the upper level low to our west, and cold
front to our east. It will not be until late tonight that
temperatures aloft cool sufficiently (to near 0-2c at 850 hpa) such
that lake enhanced and later lake effect rain forms northeast of
lake erie. A brisk ssw wind will bring the initial band across the
northern niagara frontier.

Highs today will be in the upper 60s to the east, while to the west
where cold air will begin to deepen, highs will be in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. It will be much cooler tonight with lows in the 40s
(and possibly upper 30s over the so. Tier).

Short term Wednesday through Friday night
Deep longwave troughing work across the great lakes will dictate
conditions during the Wednesday into Thursday time period. A period
of cold air advection will occur Wednesday and Wednesday night as
upper heights continue to fall. This will aid in lowering 850 mb
temperatures to -2c to -3c. This process within a background of
sustained moist cyclonic flow will generate a growing over-lake
convective depth as instability increases resulting in a decent lake
effect response with rain showers developing off lake erie. Low
level southwest trajectories would focus most of the lake effect
rain showers across grand island and northern portions of the
niagara frontier early in the day Wednesday, shifting across the
buffalo metro area in the afternoon and the south towns by
Wednesday evening.

Low level flow becomes more west-southwest as the upper trough
starts to cross the region Wednesday night. This will focus the lake
effect rain showers south of buffalo across western southern tier. A
lake effect response can be expected off lake ontario as well,
increasing in coverage later Wednesday night across jefferson and
lewis counties, pushing into oswego county by Thursday morning.

Flow weakens on Thursday into Thursday night as transient upper
level ridging will build into the region. This will bring drying as
the flow turns southwesterly, with a sharpening warm air advection
pattern developing, shutting off the lake effect process.

High pressure will drift to the east coast on Friday, but still
remain near enough to provide subsidence and support another dry
day. Southerly return flow will increase between the departing high
and another strong trough moving into the upper midwest. This will
allow temperatures to briefly return to above normal, with highs
back into the mid 60s.

Long term Saturday through Monday
Model guidance begins to diverge after that, with the 12z gfs
notably faster in bringing the next system into our region than
the 12z ecmwf. The faster GFS brings showers into the bulk of
the region Saturday as a cold front slowly crosses the area,
while the ECMWF would keep Saturday dry with the cold front not
arriving until later Saturday night. Given the uncertainty in
timing, have just slowly increased pops through the chance range
from west to east Saturday and Saturday night.

Unsettled weather will likely persist Sunday through Monday as the
cold front moves slowly east of the area, and then a significant
wave of low pressure develops along the front and moves northward
along the eastern seaboard. An associated upper level low will close
off and remain over the eastern great lakes, supporting a chance of
rain showers each day. Temperatures will turn significantly cooler
by Sunday and Monday, but it does not appear cold enough to allow
for any wet snow to mix in even across higher terrain.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
A cold front will continue to push across the region this early
morning for the 06z tafs with mainly MVFRVFR flight conditions. A
narrow band of heavier showers will briefly lower visibilities
towards ifr, but this should be an hour or less in duration. Some
lower clouds linger over the so. Tier with spotty ifr early.

Ahead of the front winds can still remain gusty across kart... With
gusts 25 to 30 knots possible.

Drying behind the front should leave the region MVFRVFR with rain
showers east of the tafs sites by 13-15z. A cool flow will remain
across the region through the end of the TAF period... With mainly
vfr flight conditions, though some lower MVFR ceilings will remain
possible.

Outlook...

Wednesday... MainlyVFR... Except at kbuf kiag where some
showers will be likely... And reductions to MVFR will be possible.

Thursday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers east of lake ontario.

Friday...VFR.

Saturday...VFR to MVFR with scattered showers.

Marine
A deep storm system near the soo today will maintain brisk winds
over the lakes, with small craft advisories over the next few days.

A southwest wind today over lake erie will maintain SCA here, while
this same southwest wind will bring winds 15 to 20 knots on the
eastern shoreline of lake ontario this morning.

Winds will diminish some later today behind a cold front, though as
cold air deepens over the lakes, and the upper level low draws
closer winds and waves will again increase. Southwest winds will
near 30 knots on lake erie later tonight, while on lake ontario
increasing winds will generate a renewed set of small craft
advisories.

As the upper level low weakens and slides eastward the winds and
waves will diminish Wednesday-Wednesday night.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Wind advisory until 8 am edt this morning for nyz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Thursday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 8 am edt
Wednesday for lez020.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 2 pm
edt Wednesday for loz043.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 pm edt
Wednesday for loz042.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for
loz045.

Small craft advisory from 2 am to 5 pm edt Wednesday for
loz044.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Thomas
short term... Tma
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Thomas
marine... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 29 mi51 min 62°F1001.4 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 38 mi51 min W 9.9 G 14 59°F 1002.8 hPa57°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 39 mi81 min SW 16 G 16 60°F 61°F4 ft1001.9 hPa (+0.8)
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 63 mi51 min 73°F 1002.4 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 89 mi81 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 62°F 1003.4 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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SE15
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S11
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S11
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G13
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S11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY9 mi25 minS 76.00 miLight Rain67°F62°F84%1001.7 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY24 mi25 minSSE 19 G 3210.00 miLight Rain and Breezy66°F59°F80%1001.8 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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S10SE10SE6S8SE10
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G27
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G29
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1 day agoCalm4S74S7W6W8W6W4CalmE3E3CalmSE3S4S7S6S8S6S9S6S8S7
G15
S7
G15
2 days agoS4SW4SW7SW12SW7SW7SW7SW5SW4SW4CalmCalmE3E4E4E4NE3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.