Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ludington, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 5:16PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 4:29 PM EST (21:29 UTC) Moonrise 10:22AMMoonset 7:55PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 302 Pm Est Tue Nov 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A chance of snow showers. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 4 to 6 feet after midnight.
Thanksgiving day..West winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
LMZ849 Expires:201711220415;;758717 FZUS53 KGRR 212002 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 302 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-220415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ludington, MI
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location: 43.96, -86.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 212000
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
300 pm est Tue nov 21 2017
latest update...

synopsis short term long term marine

Synopsis
Issued at 300 pm est Tue nov 21 2017
light lake effect snow showers and flurries will develop tonight
but with very little to no snow accumulation. A weakening clipper
system may also bring a few light snow showers and flurries mainly
north of muskegon during the early morning hours of thanksgiving
day.

Short term (this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 300 pm est Tue nov 21 2017
a relatively tranquil wx pattern will continue through the short
term fcst period. A few light northwest flow lake effect snow
showers and flurries will develop tonight as h8 temps fall to -11
to -13 c yielding delta t S in the upper teens.

However lake effect snow shower potential is mitigated by several
factors including lack of deeper moisture and low inversion heights
of only around 4-5 kft agl. Areas mainly near to west of us-131 will
have very light snow accumulations of under an inch. Very little to
no snow accumulation is fcst over our eastern fcst area.

Flurries or very light snow showers will linger near to west of us-
131 into early Wednesday morning before ending. Dry wx is forecast
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

A weakening clipper system will bring a few light snow showers
and flurries to our northwest fcst area (mainly north of kmkg)
mainly between 06z and 12z Thursday with only a few tenths of an
inch of snow accumulation up there. Other than that tranquil and
dry wx is forecast for the thanksgiving holiday and for Thursday
night.

Long term (Friday through Tuesday)
issued at 300 pm est Tue nov 21 2017
no major systems are expected in the long term but the pattern of a
cold front every few days will continue. No significant cold air
outbreaks will occur since the polar jet stays north most of the
time which also means minimal lake effect precipitation.

Out next cold front is progged to come through on Friday night and
out ahead of it guidance brings in h8 temps around 10c on Friday.

That should lead to high temps at or above 50 although breezy
conditions will make it feel colder.

Model consensus is for high pops for light rain showers with fropa
on Friday night, then a chance of mixed rain and snow showers in the
colder air behind the front Saturday. Little or snow accumulations.

Sunday and Monday look dry with moderating temperatures as sfc high
pressure moves from the plains to the mid atlantic. Another cold
front approaches on Tuesday although timing is low confidence at
this time. ECMWF suggests highs in the 50s in the warm advection
ahead of this next front.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 100 pm est Tue nov 21 2017
band of rain will produce areas of MVFR CIGS vsbys this
afternoon, mainly south and east of grr. Moderate icing in the
clouds is likely within this southeastward moving band of rain,
with current freezing levels around 2000 ft falling through the
afternoon.

The rain will be out of the area by 00z withVFR following in
it's wake tonight and Wednesday. However there will be lake effect
snow showers this evening that could occasionally briefly impact
mkg and azo with MVFR or lower conditions. West winds gusting to
25 kts will becoming northwest and subside to around 10 knots this
evening.

Marine
Issued at 300 pm est Tue nov 21 2017
a small craft advisory remains in effect through tonight into
early Wednesday morning. Wave models continue to suggest wave heights
will finally subside to below SCA criteria after 13z wed. However
wave heights will ramp back up on thanksgiving day when another
small craft advisory will likely be needed.

Hydrology
Issued at 100 pm est Tue nov 21 2017
several rivers remain at advisory action stage level as runoff
continues from rain that fell over the weekend. Water levels in
these and other rivers will remain fairly steady or slowly fall
through the end of the week. Rain and snow showers today and tonight
will only provide light amounts of precipitation, and will not have
an impact on water levels in rivers, creeks and streams. Additional
flooding is not expected.

A few more rounds of light rain snow are expected through the end of
the week, but should not have a significant impacts on river levels.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Wednesday for lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Laurens
short term... Laurens
long term... Meade
aviation... Meade
hydrology... Hlo
marine... Laurens


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 1 mi41 min NW 7 G 19 35°F 21°F
45024 6 mi29 min NW 19 G 27 37°F 46°F7 ft1013.3 hPa (+3.4)27°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 8 mi35 min NW 24 G 27 36°F 1012.5 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 21 mi49 min NNW 25 G 28 36°F 1011.2 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Last
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S11
G15
S12
G18
S16
G23
S21
S20
G28
S20
G28
SW20
G28
S20
G33
SW21
G28
SW24
G32
SW17
G28
SW19
G27
SW18
G25
SW15
G22
SW7
G15
SW6
G16
W13
G20
W10
G15
NW13
G21
NW11
G18
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G14
NW8
G18
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G16
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G18
1 day
ago
W6
G10
W8
G13
W7
G14
W9
G13
W10
G19
W10
G16
W10
G15
W17
G21
W15
G20
W13
G21
W11
G15
W10
G14
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G15
W9
G13
W6
G10
SW4
G10
SW7
G11
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G15
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G18
SW15
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G21
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G23
S14
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S12
G21
2 days
ago
N8
G14
N5
G13
N11
G19
N8
G17
N9
G18
N8
G16
N8
G14
NW7
G14
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G14
N5
G11
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G18
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G16
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G17
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G14
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G13
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G20
NW9
G17
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G16
NW6
G13
NW6
G16
NW8
G14
W7
G14
NW9
G13
NW7
G10

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI2 mi34 minNW 12 G 2010.00 miOvercast35°F22°F61%1011.5 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi33 minNW 14 G 2210.00 miOvercast35°F21°F57%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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-12
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Last 24hrS12
G16
S12
G19
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G27
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G27
SW19
G32
S17
G32
SW21
G29
S26
G32
S17
G31
SW19
G36
SW20
G28
SW16
G26
SW18
G26
SW16
G24
SW17
G20
W12
G18
W11
G17
W9
G17
NW11
G21
NW9
G17
NW10
G15
NW9NW7
G17
NW9
G19
1 day agoW7W7W6W8
G14
W9W6
G17
W9
G15
W7W11
G16
W9
G16
W8W5W5SW5W7SW5SW7SW8SW11
G17
SW12
G22
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G24
SW17
G21
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S12
G21
2 days agoN12
G18
N13
G20
N19
G29
N16
G23
N12
G24
N8
G18
N13
G18
N13
G19
N12
G18
NW9
G15
NW11
G20
NW9
G16
NW8
G16
NW8NW7
G16
NW10
G14
NW6NW7
G18
NW6
G17
N9
G16
NW6
G14
W8W7NW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.