Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ludington, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 5:21PM Thursday November 15, 2018 5:38 AM EST (10:38 UTC) Moonrise 2:01PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 309 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late Friday night...
Today..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Sunny until midday, then partly Sunny with a slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet after midnight.
Friday..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers and a slight chance of snow showers until midday. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots toward daybreak. Cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers in the evening, then a chance of rain and snow showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet toward daybreak.
LMZ849 Expires:201811151615;;328256 FZUS53 KGRR 150809 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 309 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-151615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ludington, MI
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location: 43.96, -86.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 150808
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
308 am est Thu nov 15 2018
latest update...

synopsis discussion marine

Synopsis
Issued at 302 am est Thu nov 15 2018
an large area of precipitation south of michigan early this
morning will move north into southwest lower michigan by mid
morning. The precipitation mostly be snow in southwest michigan.

The snow will spread across most of the area by early afternoon.

Accumulations will mostly be around an inch, but locally up to 2
inch is possible. Highs will be in the lower to mid 30s. There
will be periods of snow tonight accumulations will be light,
mostly an inch or less. Some light snow may linger into the mid
morning hours of Friday. A cold front will bring the chance of
additional light snow Saturday. Dry weather is expected from
Sunday through thanksgiving. Temperatures will remain cooler than
normal though early next week but should return to near normal by
thanksgiving, with highs reaching into the 40s by then.

Discussion (today through next Wednesday)
issued at 302 am est Thu nov 15 2018
the main issue today is the snow and how much we get. Most of the
model sounding suggest nearly all snow as there is no elevated
warm layer to melt the snow. However there is fairly deep
isentropic layer below 700 mb so the snowflakes will be rimed and
that will result in less accumulation than would otherwise happen.

There is a fairly impressive southern stream closed upper low,
centered over eastern missouri as I write this but it is getting
sheared out by a decent northern stream shortwave. It is the
shearing out of the system that will help limit the amount of
precipitation we get from this system. This will mean we see three
precipitation events. First is the deformation zone precipitation
moving northward this morning. That should nearly dissipate by
the time it reaches i-96 late this morning. However a deformation
band will redevelop from near grand rapids to clare by mid
afternoon. That will move out by evening but then the band of snow
with the northern stream system moves across the area after
midnight with more light snow. That snow or patchy drizzle will
come to a end by mid to late morning Friday
the end result will be an area of 1 to 2 inches of snow near i-94 then
a second area of 1 to 2 inches near grand rapids northeast to
near clare. Lesser amount will fall between i-94 and i-96. Less
than an inch of snow is expected overnight. There has been a
trend in the hrrr for the past 6 hours for the entire precipitation
shield to shift north with time. If that trend continues we may
have to increase snowfall amounts for today into this evening.

The jet entrance region of he same jet core that will result in
light snow tonight will result in another snow area Saturday. The
models have having major issues figuring out where that will end
up. The NAM has the core of it crossing southwest michigan, if
that happens we could see 3 to 5 inches of snow Saturday. Most of
the other models have it tracking southwest of michigan. So we
have high chance pops Saturday for now, that may well change
either way.

Beyond that we have a much stronger digging northern
stream jet core that if it get far enough south, we would see an
arctic blast of very cold air and snow showers in the Monday time
frame. For now just about all the models and their ensembles
keep that front just north of this area but that looks like a
very strong feature to me and I am not willing to write it off.

Once that feature moves through we may yet see split flow take
over and that would be just in time for thanksgiving. We could see
highs in the 40s by then if that happens.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 105 am est Thu nov 15 2018
vfr prevailing with gradually lowering ceilings early this
morning. Ceilings then fall to MVFR and ifr pretty quickly from
south to north mid-late morning, with snow possibly creating
temporary ifr visibility sooner than currently predicted. No ifr
currently predicted at mkg but ifr visibilities with snow may
have to be included in the next forecast. Moderate rime icing
severity looks likely in the clouds once ifr sets in. Winds
generally light from the east-southeast most of the day, becoming
south-southwest during the evening.

Marine
Issued at 302 am est Thu nov 15 2018
we have issued a small craft advisory from just before midnight
tonight till just before midnight Saturday. This is due to the
cold air following the system moving out of the area tonight.

Hydrology
Issued at 1022 am est Tue nov 13 2018
river levels are mostly above normal for this time of year, though
they are below bank full and steady or falling. The precipitation
over the next week will be limited in amount and frozen, so rivers
will continue to fall. Despite the cold weather, freeze-up ice jams
are not a concern, as water temperatures in the main-stem rivers are
still well above freezing.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 1 am est
Saturday for lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Wdm
discussion... Wdm
aviation... Cas
hydrology... 63
marine... Wdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 1 mi39 min E 2.9 G 5.1 22°F 15°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 8 mi59 min ESE 7 G 11 23°F 1026.1 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI2 mi44 minE 410.00 miFair20°F15°F80%1025.4 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi43 minE 410.00 miFair15°F12°F88%1027.8 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNW4N5N6E3E3W5SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4E3E5E4E4
1 day agoNW8
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2 days agoNW6NW5N5NW7NW6N6NW10NW8NW3NW5CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmNW3NW3N4N4CalmN5N6
G14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.