Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ludington, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 9:30PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 9:34 AM EDT (13:34 UTC) Moonrise 12:59PMMoonset 1:04AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 452 Am Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
Today..Northeast winds around 5 knots backing north. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..East winds around 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:201806201515;;820791 FZUS53 KGRR 200852 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 452 AM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-201515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ludington, MI
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location: 43.96, -86.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 201226
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
826 am edt Wed jun 20 2018
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 257 am edt Wed jun 20 2018
showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected today across the
southern half of lower michigan. Some local flooding is possible
as heavy rain combines with slow moving storms. The showers should
diminish this afternoon with a spell of dry weather beginning
tonight and lasting through Thursday.

Short term (today through Friday)
issued at 257 am edt Wed jun 20 2018
some potential for localized heavy rain this morning across the
southern half of the forecast area. Precipitable water is close to
1.9 inches and storms are slow moving. Downpours across berrien
county ATTM show mrms instantaneous precip rates spiking over 3
inches an hour with rain gage reports showing 1.5 inches in 45
minutes. This area of rain is progged to expand north and east
this morning and we will have to watch for areas of training and
backbuilding.

The rain should begin to taper off this afternoon as weak sfc wave
translates east and sfc front sinks south in its wake with drier
air advecting in from the north. Fair weather with comfortable
temperature and humidity follows for Thursday, then moisture
spreads north again Thursday night and Friday as next sfc wave
approaches.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 257 am edt Wed jun 20 2018
rain will continue Saturday and into early Sunday as a cut-off low
pressure system drifts through the great lakes. Model guidance
continues to shift the heaviest rainfall ever so slightly southeast
with each new run which isn't surprising given the lack of real
synoptic "guidance" (e.G. Cut-off lows sometimes drift wherever
they please). At this point I still feel confident in the chance
for precipitation this weekend but the heaviest just may stay
outside of our area depending on the final track of the system.

A compact (and rather potent) shortwave trough will swing through
the great lakes Sunday and provide the "guidance" to kick the low
east into canada. Breaks in cloud cover with diurnal heating will
promote pockets of modest instability ahead of the upper-level
wave supporting the possibility of a few thunderstorms Sunday
evening. However, coverage looks fairly limited at this point in
time.

The area will then become dominated by a large high pressure system
early next week with dry and seasonable temperatures expected.

Another low pressure system may impact the area toward the end of
next week, but we won't worry about the details of such at this
point in time.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 826 am edt Wed jun 20 2018
ifr ceilings may linger at azo btl and possibly jxn for an hour or
two, but gradual improvement to MVFR is expected later this
morning. Also currently pockets of ifr around rqb and mop which
should lift soon too. Scattered shra will also linger through
midday especially around azo btl jxn. Improvement toVFR from
north to south expected this afternoon evening. Light winds
generally from the northeast.

Marine
Issued at 257 am edt Wed jun 20 2018
winds and waves will be relatively light the next couple days.

Winds will mostly be offshore, so waves will be highest away from
shore.

Hydrology
Issued at 1234 pm edt Tue jun 19 2018
recent rainfall has resulted in a slight rise on a few area rivers.

With river levels running near normal, no flooding is expected.

More rain is possible today through Wednesday night and again Friday
through Saturday night. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms may develop. Generally expect less than an inch of
rain, with locally heavy rainfall possible with the storms. This may
result in localized flooding.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Ostuno
short term... Ostuno
long term... Borchardt
aviation... Cas
hydrology... 63
marine... Ostuno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 1 mi47 min E 5.1 G 7 62°F 56°F
45024 6 mi35 min E 3.9 G 5.8 63°F 63°F1 ft1014.4 hPa (-0.0)59°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 8 mi55 min E 1 G 8 63°F 1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI2 mi40 minN 010.00 miOvercast63°F57°F83%1013.2 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi39 minN 010.00 miOvercast65°F59°F81%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3E3E5E5E8E5NE7E9E4E5E4SE4E3CalmE5E4CalmCalmE5CalmE3E7SE3E5
1 day agoCalmCalmSW4SW3SW4W5N6N4N4N5N5N4CalmN3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3
2 days agoSW12
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CalmCalmCalmCalmSW6W7CalmNW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.