Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ludington, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 6:27PM Thursday February 22, 2018 9:19 PM EST (02:19 UTC) Moonrise 11:18AMMoonset 12:39AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1107 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers until midday, then snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 20 knots backing west 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 6 to 8 feet late in the day. Waves are for ice free areas. This is the last nearshore marine forecast (nshgrr) issuance for the season. The nshgrr will again be issued around april 1st 2018, or as conditions warrant.
LMZ849 Expires:201801161015;;514449 FZUS53 KGRR 160407 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1107 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-161015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ludington, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.96, -86.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kgrr 230058
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
758 pm est Thu feb 22 2018
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 328 pm est Thu feb 22 2018
a brief wintry mix will occur toward midnight. Most areas will see
a very light glaze of ice, but it should be a bit more significant
toward central lower. All areas will see the precipitation change
over to rain just prior to daybreak. Then rain will end toward mid
day Friday. After a quiet period Friday afternoon and night, rain
will move back in on Saturday and continue Saturday night. Some
snow may mix in at the onset of the precipitation. A risk of
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday night as warmer air surges
north. More rain is expected into the middle of next week.

Daily temperatures are expected to remain in the 40s, with 50s
possible on Tuesday. Nighttime lows will mainly be in the 30s.

Short term (this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 328 pm est Thu feb 22 2018
will issue a winter weather advisory for the far NW CWA where a
wintry mix could lead to slippery roads by the morning commute. Rain
returns Saturday and Saturday night with thunderstorms also possible.

Low pressure will pass to the northwest of lower michigan toward
daybreak Friday. The models have trended warmer with more of a se
flow. This should result in only a brief period of mixed pcpn.

However the duration will be longer the farther north one goes. Also
the steadier pcpn is expected to occur closer to the track of the
low, meaning the NW CWA will be most under the gun for steadier
pcpn, in combination of a longer duration where surface temps will
be below freezing. Expect around 0.05 of an inch of glaze where the
advisory will be (mason and lake counties), and lesser amounts to
the east and south.

The surface temps will be rising toward daybreak Friday from south
to north, ending the risk of freezing pcpn. This occurs by 09z over
the far south, to 15z Fri in the north. Rain will occur through the
rest of the morning, but as the low exits we will see a dry
afternoon. Friday night also will be dry.

A more intense surface low will track NW of the area again Saturday
night. Moisture flux arrives from south to north through Saturday,
and solidly in place by Saturday night. The pcpn may start as a
period of rain snow mix Saturday, but warmer air will surge in
changing it over to all rain. A 984 mb low will occlude into
Saturday night and a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible as
this front crosses the CWA Saturday night. It will also become
quite windy late Saturday night as we see the lead edge of the cold
advection arrive. This system moves through rather quickly so
rainfall amounts will be somewhat limited with a quarter to a half
inch of rain expected. This may delay some of the rivers subsiding,
with the risk of thunder possibly adding a wild card to possible
localized heavier rains.

Long term (Sunday through Thursday)
issued at 328 pm est Thu feb 22 2018
500 mb flow pattern changes Sunday as strong wave moves from the
central plains into ontario. Zonal flow weak ridging will dominate
the extended period... As a closed low develops over california. That
system lifts out into the central plains and weakens Thursday...

which will give us a chance of precipitation Wednesday and Thursday
as the system approaches. Models in good agreement through late
Tuesday... Then they diverge in how they handle the upper low over
the southwestern us.

Cold air will return to the region Sunday on gusty northwest winds
as the initial system departs... With moderating temperatures
expected Monday and Tuesday. A dry cold front will pass through
late Tuesday... Bringing slightly cooler temperatures. H8
temperatures fall below zero Sun morning as system passes overhead.

Cmc doesn't bring sub -10 c air into the region... Rising above zero
tue Wed before falling back below zero on Thursday.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 754 pm est Thu feb 22 2018
MVFR ceilings are beginning to stream into lower michigan from the
south and west at 730pm. Conditions are expected to deteriorate
rapidly tonight with ceilings dropping to below 1000ft after 06z
and to below 600ft by daybreak. Widespread ifr and lifr conditions
are forecast to be in place at all of the TAF sites at 12z. Rain
will work through the area late tonight and Friday morning. Rain
and fog will dip visibilities into the ifr range as well. Ceilings
will slowly lift through the afternoon into the MVFR range.

Hydrology
Issued at 328 pm est Thu feb 22 2018
water that ponded into low-lying areas and smaller rivers, creeks,
and streams is continuing to slowly make its way into the larger
rivers. Moderate to major flooding is expected to occur along the
kalamazoo, thornapple and grand rivers tomorrow into the weekend.

Water levels along the grand river are expected to approach or
possibly exceed levels reached during the flooding in april of 2013.

Water levels along the kalamazoo river, particularly near comstock,
are expected to near levels that occurred in september 2008.

Please see the latest flood statement or river hydrographs for
details. Hydrographs are available by going to weather.Gov grr and
clicking on the "rivers and lakes" tab above the map.

A wintry mix of precipitation is expected late tonight through
Friday morning. This should not impact river levels or cause ongoing
flooding to worsen. Precipitation from a low pressure system over
the weekend will spread mostly rain into the area Saturday night and
Sunday. Amounts could exceed 0.25 inches, and could approach 0.50
inches near the michigan indiana border. This may slow the receding
of waters and prolong river crests for rivers that crest over the
weekend. This precipitation is not yet accounted for in river
forecasts, as it is not expected to fall within 48 hours.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory from 3 am to 10 am est Friday for miz037-
038.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Jk
short term... Jk
long term... Mws
aviation... Duke
hydrology... Hlo


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 1 mi50 min E 9.9 G 13 35°F 21°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 8 mi40 min E 8 G 18 34°F 1032.2 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 21 mi40 min ESE 6 G 11 35°F 1032.2 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
Last
24hr
E3
E3
E4
E4
NE2
G5
NE5
NE2
NE3
G6
NE5
NE3
NE3
E5
G8
NE6
G10
E6
G9
E4
G8
E7
E4
G10
E3
E7
G10
SE7
E6
G10
E6
G10
E8
G12
E8
G12
1 day
ago
W7
G11
W7
G11
NW9
G14
NW11
G14
NW8
G13
NW5
G10
NW5
G16
NW9
G16
NW7
G15
N6
G11
NW7
G12
N6
G12
NW9
G13
NW6
G11
N8
N3
G9
W7
G11
NW7
G11
NW4
G8
NW4
G7
NW4
N1
N2
NE2
2 days
ago
E7
G10
E7
G10
NE4
--
S8
G11
SW7
G10
S10
G14
S9
G12
SW7
S10
G16
S13
G17
--
E4
G7
E4
S9
G15
S13
G19
S7
G11
S8
G11
SW4
W6
G9
W6
G9
W4
W8
G12
W6
G10

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI2 mi25 minE 1010.00 miOvercast34°F23°F67%1031.5 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi24 minE 710.00 miOvercast34°F21°F61%1034.4 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E3CalmNE3CalmE9E4NE5SE7CalmCalmE8SE6E8E9E8
1 day agoW5W6NW8NW9
G15
NW6NW6NW10
G14
NW7
G14
NW11
G14
NW8NW8NW8
G14
N10
G15
N11
G15
N7NW10NW6NW5NW4N4N4NW3CalmCalm
2 days agoE5E5SE5CalmCalmSW8S4S7SW5S8SW12
G17
SW10
G18
SE4SE4S6S6S11S5SW8SW6W3NW5W4W5

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (21,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.