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Marine Weather and Tides
Version 3.4 |
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome. 10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name. |
| Sunrise 6:09AM | Sunset 9:14PM | Sunday May 26, 2019 11:32 PM EDT (03:32 UTC) | Moonrise 1:45AM | Moonset 12:12PM | Illumination 43% |  |
LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Rest of tonight..North winds 5 to 15 knots veering northeast toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Memorial day..East winds around 10 knots backing northeast. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Thunderstorms likely and a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering west. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots backing north. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots backing southwest late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Rest of tonight..North winds 5 to 15 knots veering northeast toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Memorial day..East winds around 10 knots backing northeast. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Thunderstorms likely and a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering west. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots backing north. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots backing southwest late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:201905270900;;519858
FZUS53 KGRR 270206
NSHGRR
Nearshore Marine Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1005 PM EDT Sun May 26 2019
For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan
LMZ849-270900-
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ludington, MI
Hourly EDIT Helplocation: 43.96, -86.44 debug
Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
(on/off) Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition| Fxus63 kgrr 270043 afdgrr area forecast discussion national weather service grand rapids mi 843 pm edt Sun may 26 2019 latest update... aviation Synopsis Issued at 330 pm edt Sun may 26 2019 - showery activity along i-94 will fade toward sunset with dry conditions and patchy fog expected overnight. - memorial day will start out dry with increasing chances of showers storms by early afternoon. Additional showers storms are possible tonight but the strongest activity is expected to remain south. - several additional rounds of showers storms are possible from Tuesday to Thursday with low predictability owing to the type of pattern. - we should have a break in the action (at least widespread) Friday and Saturday. Discussion (this evening through next Sunday) issued at 330 pm edt Sun may 26 2019 we continue to monitor a few showers weak thunderstorms generally south of i-96 along the edge of the 925 850 mb stationary front. Instability and lapse rates are meager which will continue to limit the intensity of the cells, but pwats of 1" as well as radar cross sections denoting low centroids of maximum reflectivity below the freezing level support a continued risk for heavy downpours. At this point we're not too concerned for flooding but it's feasible a "lucky" neighborhood or two may end up with as much as an inch of rain by this evening should a few cells hit the same area. The activity should wane by sunset as nocturnal cooling sets in with continued clearing across lower michigan. With the recent wet pattern and potential to cool efficiently tonight, shallow fog is possible especially where it's rained the heaviest over the past 48 hours. Memorial day is expected to start out dry with clouds increasing by the noon hour. Afternoon shower storm chances are dependent on the development and eventual track of expected convection tonight across the plains as well as a potential remnant MCV shortwave trough. Forecast models do not handle these sorts of situations well (so be careful if using them), but there's a growing signal that a decaying MCS will roll into lower michigan by early afternoon with the threats of heavy rain and cloud to ground lightning. Certainly such a scenario would not good for those planning any outdoor festivities. Convective chances Monday evening and overnight into Tuesday morning are dependent on whatever comes through during the early afternoon hours, with any outflow likely to push the surface stationary boundary well south of the michigan indiana border. As the low-level jet takes aim at the lower great lakes after sunset, two concurrent batches of convective activity are expected--one along the surface front south of lower michigan and another associated with the 850 mb front right across our area. By and large the greatest threat for severe weather and heavy rain should reside near the surface front with parallel low-level flow to the boundary possibly leading to hefty rainfall totals. Further north in our area, the heavy rainfall threat appears lower but nonetheless a few swaths of 0.5-1" are possible, especially where convective elements train. It's worth noting a few cams indicate the surface front will sneak toward i-94 by evening which would shift the threat of severe weather and heaviest rainfall northward. But again... Models really struggle in this arena and the most likely scenario is for the most robust activity to remain to our south. |
The forecast from Tuesday through Thursday hinges on the location of the surface front and evolution of the upper-level pattern, which will be influenced by preceding convection. Our current thinking is that renewed convective activity will remain south of lower michigan Tuesday with a round of activity here Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a low-level jet once again points into the great lakes. As an upper-level wave ejects from the plains toward great lakes Wednesday, it's feasible we'll see another round of convection Wednesday night with perhaps one more round Thursday as the wave itself passes overhead. Each round of showers storms Tuesday night through Thursday will pose a threat for heavy rainfall with localized flooding possible where activity overlaps (totals could easily surpass 2" in this regime). Any severe weather potential will depend on mesoscale features with sub-24 hour lead time, but it appears the Wednesday Thursday timeframe may need to be watched. I'll say it again... Models really struggle with this kind of pattern so and the possibility remains we'll get lucky and miss out of the most organized convection. Temperatures through the week are expected to remain in the lower 60s to perhaps 70 given we remain north of the surface front. Friday through the weekend appear on the dry side except for a few spotty diurnal showers weak thunderstorms. Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening) issued at 843 pm edt Sun may 26 2019 vfr weather is expected tonight. The only concern is that we may see some shallow fog develop, but thought the threat was too low to include in the tafs at this time. Winds will be light tonight. On memorial day, clouds will be on the increase, with ceilings lowering to around 5,000ft by the end of the day, towards 00z. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be trying to spread in late in the day, after or near 20z. For now mainly covered this threat with vcts vcsh type wording for the last few hours of the 00z-00z taf period. Winds on memorial day will be east turning to the southeast as we will be north of a warm front. Speeds will be between 5-15 knots. Marine Issued at 330 pm edt Sun may 26 2019 variable but at times predominantly offshore flow with low wave heights will prevail through the holiday weekend. Winds will become westerly by Wednesday with waves increasing to 1 to 3 feet, highest south of holland. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are possible through Thursday. Calm conditions are then expected to return toward the end of the week. Hydrology Issued at 342 pm edt Sun may 26 2019 Monday afternoon into Tuesday still look to be the prime opportunity for more than an inch of additional rain as a round of showers and thunderstorms move through the region. Additional rain will then be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rivers are still expected to stay below flood stage at this time, however we may need to monitor some areas especially along the muskegon basin as they may crest closest to minor flood stage should we see trends for higher rainfall totals. Regardless, ponding of water will be possible in poor drainage areas with locally heavy rainfall. Grr watches warnings advisories Mi... None. Lm... None. Synopsis... Borchardt discussion... Borchardt aviation... Duke hydrology... Honor marine... Borchardt |
Weather Reporting Stations
EDIT (on/off) Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | Pressure | DewPt |
| LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI | 1 mi | 39 min | Calm G 1 | 56°F | 47°F | |||
| 45024 | 6 mi | 23 min | NW 5.8 G 5.8 | 47°F | 45°F | 1019 hPa | 45°F | |
| BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI | 8 mi | 53 min | NNE 5.1 G 6 | 52°F | 1019.3 hPa |
Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off) Help| 12 AM | 1 AM | 2 AM | 3 AM | 4 AM | 5 AM | 6 AM | 7 AM | 8 AM | 9 AM | 10 AM | 11 AM | 12 PM | 1 PM | 2 PM | 3 PM | 4 PM | 5 PM | 6 PM | 7 PM | 8 PM | 9 PM | 10 PM | 11 PM | |
| Last 24hr | W G8 | W G6 | W | E | E | E | E | E | NE | E | NE G7 | N | W G6 | NW G9 | NW G10 | NW G11 | NW G8 | N G12 | NW G14 | N G9 | N G9 | NE | NE | N |
| 1 day ago | E G11 | SE G16 | E G12 | E G11 | E G8 | S G12 | S G12 | -- | S | SW G12 | S G17 | SW G8 | SW | SW G15 | SW G17 | SW G17 | SW G20 | S G21 | SW G23 | SW G24 | S G22 | SW G21 | SW G13 | |
| 2 days ago | SW | W | NE | NE | -- | E | N | NE | E | E | NE G10 | E | SW G5 | SW | SW | SE G11 | E G12 | S G9 | SE | SE | SE G14 | SE G13 | E G14 | E G14 |
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Visibility | Sky/Weather | Temp | DewPt | Humidity | Pressure |
| Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI | 2 mi | 38 min | N 0 | 10.00 mi | Fair | 50°F | 46°F | 88% | 1018.3 hPa |
| Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI | 24 mi | 37 min | N 0 | 10.00 mi | Fair | 51°F | 48°F | 89% | 1018.6 hPa |
Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
| -12 PM | 1 AM | 2 AM | 3 AM | 4 AM | 5 AM | 6 AM | 7 AM | 8 AM | 9 AM | 10 AM | 11 AM | 12 PM | 1 PM | 2 PM | 3 PM | 4 PM | 5 PM | 6 PM | 7 PM | 8 PM | 9 PM | 10 PM | 11 PM | |
| Last 24hr | W | N | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | E | NE | E | Calm | NW | NW G14 | NW G14 | NW | NW | N G17 | N | NE | Calm | Calm | Calm |
| 1 day ago | SE | SE G14 | SE | SE | S G22 | S | SE | E | S | SW | SW G14 | W | SW | SW G17 | SW G19 | SW G17 | SW G21 | SW G22 | SW G21 | SW G19 | SW | SW G15 | SW | W |
| 2 days ago | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | N | Calm | Calm | E | E | E | Calm | Calm | S | SW | SE | SE | S | SE | SE | SE | SE | SE | SE |
Tide / Current Tables for
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program. |