Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ludington, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 7:37PM Monday September 25, 2017 1:08 PM EDT (17:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:56AMMoonset 9:57PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1140 Am Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Rest of today..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots veering northwest after midnight. Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet toward daybreak.
LMZ849 Expires:201709252115;;914514 FZUS53 KGRR 251540 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1140 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-252115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ludington, MI
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location: 43.96, -86.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 251107
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
707 am edt Mon sep 25 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 328 am edt Mon sep 25 2017
two more days of record high temperatures across most of southwest
michigan then the first cold front comes through early Wednesday
lowering high temperatures from near 90 to near 70 (which is close
to normal now). A second cold front comes through on Friday
bringing more fall like temperatures and some lake enhanced rain
showers with it. Any showers with the cold front early Wednesday
will be widely scattered and not produce much rainfall, even were
it does rain. The rainfall on Friday will be more widespread but
being lake enhanced will mostly be near the lake michigan shore.

Short term (today through Wednesday)
issued at 328 am edt Mon sep 25 2017
we get today and Tuesday in the current record warm weather
pattern, then a significant change will occur and we will have a
rather progressive upper air pattern into next week.

This is one of those henry rule events. We have a closed upper
low over the southwest CONUS and until we get a system strong
enough and close enough in wavelength it will stay there. We in
fact do have such a system currently near the dateline. By
tomorrow the wave lenght gets short enough to push the low
currently over the southwest CONUS northeast over the top of the
longwave ridge, which is over the eastern conus.

However this is why we have only a very low chance for showers
with the front. The longwave ridge is still there as the front
comes through so all the good deep forcing is over northern
michigan and into ontario canada. It is over upper michigan and
ontario, north of lake superior where the best 1000 850 moisture
transport is Wednesday morning ahead of the front. In fact there
is not even all that much instability, down here, the most
unstable CAPE is mostly less than 500 j kg early Wednesday morning
as the front comes through. So I am thinking only widely scattered
shower with the outside chance of a thunderstorm.

Meanwhile we are still in the warm stream of air so expect highs
both today and Tuesday to be from around 90 to the lower 90s.

There will be some cirrus clouds today which is partly from the
upper level outflow from hurricane maria. This should not be
enough to keep us from braking more record highs however for today
and Tuesday.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 328 am edt Mon sep 25 2017
the transition to more fall-like weather will continue for the
latter part of the week and into the weekend. There will be the
chance for scattered showers Thursday night and Friday.

The pattern should be fairly zonal on Thursday, bringing us
seasonally cool temps. But then an upper trough deepens over the
great lakes by Friday and this should actually bring temps to below
normal values that should persist into the weekend. The models have
trended deeper with this trough which also increases the chance for
rain in the Thursday night and Friday time frame. This doesn't look
like a drought-buster, but it would seem to be enough to settle the
dust. There could be some lake effect showers into Friday afternoon
and evening, but these look minimal as the air mass that follows the
short wave appears quite dry.

A large canadian high pressure pushes in for the weekend. Dry
weather should return, but it does not look like we warm until next
week. So expect a pleasantly cool and dry weekend. There could be
some patchy frost Friday and Saturday nights toward u.S. 10.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 707 am edt Mon sep 25 2017
there is some patchy light fog around early this morning but this
fog should quickly mix out by 15z then just some cirrus clouds
(for the most part) into this evening. More patchy fog to early
Tuesday morning too but that this point I do not expect any
persistent ifr fog.

Marine
Issued at 328 am edt Mon sep 25 2017
likely we will need a small craft advisory Wednesday once we get
into the cold air.

Hydrology
Issued at 1245 pm edt Sun sep 24 2017
rivers are running around normal to below normal for the time of
year. Meanwhile, the us drought monitor is indicating dry conditions
across southern lower michigan. Near-record warmth is expected today
and Monday. The next chance for rain is Wednesday, but it's not a
good chance. No river issues are expected through the week.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Wdm
short term... Wdm
long term... Jk
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... 63
marine... Wdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 1 mi50 min SSW 6 G 8.9 79°F 59°F
45024 6 mi28 min S 9.7 G 12 72°F 70°F1 ft1017.3 hPa66°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 8 mi88 min S 11 G 15 79°F 1017.6 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 21 mi88 min SSW 7 G 8.9 79°F 1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI2 mi13 minSSW 310.00 miFair84°F59°F43%1016.3 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi12 minVar 610.00 miFair88°F61°F40%1017 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W7SW7SW9SW8SW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmS3S5W3
1 day agoSW7SW6SW7SW7SW7SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S4S4
2 days agoSW11
G15
SW10SW8S8S8S3N7S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3S4SE3SE3E3SE3S3S3S4SW8SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.