Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ludington, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 7:59PM Thursday March 21, 2019 6:04 PM EDT (22:04 UTC) Moonrise 7:56PMMoonset 7:30AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 412 Pm Est Fri Jan 25 2019
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect through Saturday morning...
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 2 to 5 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of snow showers. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 3 to 5 feet. This is the last nearshore marine forecast (nshgrr) issuance for the season. The nshgrr will again be issued around april 1st 2019, or as conditions warrant.
LMZ849 Expires:201901260415;;919599 FZUS53 KGRR 252113 CCA NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast...corrected National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 412 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-260415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ludington, MI
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location: 43.96, -86.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 211914
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
314 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019
latest update...

synopsis discussion hydro

Synopsis
Issued at 315 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019
- a mostly dry cold front will swing through lower michigan
tonight making way for a blustery Friday.

- after a splendid Saturday and early Sunday, light precipitation
is possible mainly south of i-96 early Monday.

- a dry and warming period is expected through the middle of next
week.

Discussion (this evening through next Thursday)
issued at 315 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019
currently, temperatures are in the upper 30s to lower 40s with
overcast skies and light north northwesterly winds. A few pockets of
broken cloud cover can be seen in visible satellite imagery, and
indeed a few lucky locations may see the Sun before nightfall. A
cold front associated with a potent upper-level shortwave trough can
be seen diving south over south-central ontario and northern lake
superior, with clearing skies over the upper peninsula of michigan
and central wisconsin.

As the aforementioned shortwave trough dives south over lower
michigan overnight early Friday morning, a few light snow showers
are possible but the forecast low-level thermal and moisture
profiles suggest the snow showers will be light with highly
scattered coverage (e.G. Not everyone will see snowflakes tonight).

Temperatures will be slower to fall than previously thought, likely
preventing a "flash freeze" tonight. Rather, it appears
temperatures will wait to fall below freezing until Friday evening
at most locations. With stout northwesterly winds gusting to
25-30 mph during the afternoon hours, Friday will certainly feel
"raw" with wind chills in the lower 20s falling to the lower teens
Friday night (single digits in traditional cold spots).

Saturday and the first half of Sunday still look splendid with
abundant sunshine and temperatures warming into the mid 40s and
lower 50s, respectively. Cloud cover will increase Sunday evening as
yet another upper-level trough approaches from the north in tandem
with an approaching (though weak) surface wave from the southwest.

Forecast ensemble and deterministic model guidance continues to
demonstrate inconsistency in precipitation potential Sunday night
and into Monday morning with the wave, but current indications are
that should it indeed precipitate, totals would be light and
mainly south of i-96.

Monday afternoon through mid-week will feature dry conditions and a
warming trend with highs climbing toward the 50 mark Wednesday and
especially Thursday. Forecast ensemble model guidance then continues
to suggest the pattern will become stormy for the end of the week
with anywhere from a wintry mix, thunderstorms, to locally heavy
rainfall included within the ensemble solution space... Rest
assured we have plenty of time between now and then to sort out
the details.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 106 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019
ceilings are expected to continue rising gradually as the
afternoon progresses with a brief period ofVFR CIGS possible
before sunset. MVFR CIGS will return after dark as a cold front
sweeps south across the state. No visibility restrictions are
currently in the forecast. Northwesterly winds will slightly back
westerly this afternoon, before returning northwesterly after the
aforementioned front sweeps through. Wind gusts may exceed 20
knots toward the end of the TAF period.

Hydrology
Issued at 315 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019
no more flood products are in effect as river levels have fallen
below flood stage and runoff water levels have subsided across
newaygo county. However, numerous roadways remain closed
particularly across newaygo and northern kent counties due to
flood water damage. No significant precipitation is expected over
the next four to seven days.

Grr watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Borchardt
discussion... Borchardt
aviation... Borchardt
hydrology... Borchardt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 1 mi53 min SW 6 G 8 35°F 32°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 8 mi85 min SSW 6 G 8 35°F 1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI2 mi69 minWSW 77.00 miOvercast38°F34°F88%1012.5 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi69 minWSW 810.00 miOvercast38°F32°F79%1014.1 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE6SE6SE4SE4CalmE3E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN4N6N6N3NW6NW6NW8W8W6
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2 days agoSW6SW3CalmSW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW7SW7SW7SW8SW9SW9SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.