Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ludington, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 9:14PM Sunday May 26, 2019 11:32 PM EDT (03:32 UTC) Moonrise 1:45AMMoonset 12:12PM Illumination 43% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Rest of tonight..North winds 5 to 15 knots veering northeast toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Memorial day..East winds around 10 knots backing northeast. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Thunderstorms likely and a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering west. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots backing north. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots backing southwest late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:201905270900;;519858 FZUS53 KGRR 270206 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1005 PM EDT Sun May 26 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-270900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ludington, MI
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location: 43.96, -86.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 270043
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
843 pm edt Sun may 26 2019
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 330 pm edt Sun may 26 2019
- showery activity along i-94 will fade toward sunset with dry
conditions and patchy fog expected overnight.

- memorial day will start out dry with increasing chances of
showers storms by early afternoon. Additional showers storms are
possible tonight but the strongest activity is expected to
remain south.

- several additional rounds of showers storms are possible from
Tuesday to Thursday with low predictability owing to the type
of pattern.

- we should have a break in the action (at least widespread)
Friday and Saturday.

Discussion (this evening through next Sunday)
issued at 330 pm edt Sun may 26 2019
we continue to monitor a few showers weak thunderstorms generally
south of i-96 along the edge of the 925 850 mb stationary front.

Instability and lapse rates are meager which will continue to limit
the intensity of the cells, but pwats of 1" as well as radar cross
sections denoting low centroids of maximum reflectivity below the
freezing level support a continued risk for heavy downpours. At
this point we're not too concerned for flooding but it's feasible
a "lucky" neighborhood or two may end up with as much as an inch
of rain by this evening should a few cells hit the same area. The
activity should wane by sunset as nocturnal cooling sets in with
continued clearing across lower michigan. With the recent wet
pattern and potential to cool efficiently tonight, shallow fog is
possible especially where it's rained the heaviest over the past
48 hours.

Memorial day is expected to start out dry with clouds increasing
by the noon hour. Afternoon shower storm chances are dependent on
the development and eventual track of expected convection tonight
across the plains as well as a potential remnant MCV shortwave
trough. Forecast models do not handle these sorts of situations
well (so be careful if using them), but there's a growing signal
that a decaying MCS will roll into lower michigan by early
afternoon with the threats of heavy rain and cloud to ground
lightning. Certainly such a scenario would not good for those
planning any outdoor festivities. Convective chances Monday
evening and overnight into Tuesday morning are dependent on
whatever comes through during the early afternoon hours, with any
outflow likely to push the surface stationary boundary well south
of the michigan indiana border. As the low-level jet takes aim at
the lower great lakes after sunset, two concurrent batches of
convective activity are expected--one along the surface front
south of lower michigan and another associated with the 850 mb
front right across our area. By and large the greatest threat for
severe weather and heavy rain should reside near the surface
front with parallel low-level flow to the boundary possibly
leading to hefty rainfall totals. Further north in our area, the
heavy rainfall threat appears lower but nonetheless a few swaths
of 0.5-1" are possible, especially where convective elements
train. It's worth noting a few cams indicate the surface front
will sneak toward i-94 by evening which would shift the threat of
severe weather and heaviest rainfall northward. But again... Models
really struggle in this arena and the most likely scenario is for
the most robust activity to remain to our south.

The forecast from Tuesday through Thursday hinges on the location of
the surface front and evolution of the upper-level pattern, which
will be influenced by preceding convection. Our current thinking
is that renewed convective activity will remain south of lower
michigan Tuesday with a round of activity here Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as a low-level jet once again points into the
great lakes. As an upper-level wave ejects from the plains toward
great lakes Wednesday, it's feasible we'll see another round of
convection Wednesday night with perhaps one more round Thursday as
the wave itself passes overhead. Each round of showers storms
Tuesday night through Thursday will pose a threat for heavy
rainfall with localized flooding possible where activity overlaps
(totals could easily surpass 2" in this regime). Any severe
weather potential will depend on mesoscale features with sub-24
hour lead time, but it appears the Wednesday Thursday timeframe
may need to be watched. I'll say it again... Models really struggle
with this kind of pattern so and the possibility remains we'll
get lucky and miss out of the most organized convection.

Temperatures through the week are expected to remain in the lower
60s to perhaps 70 given we remain north of the surface front.

Friday through the weekend appear on the dry side except for a few
spotty diurnal showers weak thunderstorms.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 843 pm edt Sun may 26 2019
vfr weather is expected tonight. The only concern is that we may
see some shallow fog develop, but thought the threat was too low
to include in the tafs at this time. Winds will be light tonight.

On memorial day, clouds will be on the increase, with ceilings
lowering to around 5,000ft by the end of the day, towards 00z.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will be trying to spread in late
in the day, after or near 20z. For now mainly covered this threat
with vcts vcsh type wording for the last few hours of the 00z-00z
taf period. Winds on memorial day will be east turning to the
southeast as we will be north of a warm front. Speeds will be
between 5-15 knots.

Marine
Issued at 330 pm edt Sun may 26 2019
variable but at times predominantly offshore flow with low wave
heights will prevail through the holiday weekend. Winds will
become westerly by Wednesday with waves increasing to 1 to 3
feet, highest south of holland. Periodic showers and thunderstorms
are possible through Thursday. Calm conditions are then expected
to return toward the end of the week.

Hydrology
Issued at 342 pm edt Sun may 26 2019
Monday afternoon into Tuesday still look to be the prime opportunity
for more than an inch of additional rain as a round of showers and
thunderstorms move through the region. Additional rain will then be
possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rivers are still expected to
stay below flood stage at this time, however we may need to monitor
some areas especially along the muskegon basin as they may crest
closest to minor flood stage should we see trends for higher
rainfall totals. Regardless, ponding of water will be possible in
poor drainage areas with locally heavy rainfall.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Borchardt
discussion... Borchardt
aviation... Duke
hydrology... Honor
marine... Borchardt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 1 mi39 min Calm G 1 56°F 47°F
45024 6 mi23 min NW 5.8 G 5.8 47°F 45°F1019 hPa45°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 8 mi53 min NNE 5.1 G 6 52°F 1019.3 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI2 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair50°F46°F88%1018.3 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair51°F48°F89%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE3E3CalmNW4NW11
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1 day agoSE7SE6
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmE3E6E9CalmCalmS4SW4SE8SE7S8SE8SE7SE6SE8SE9SE10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.