Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Florence, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:49PM Monday November 19, 2018 12:45 PM PST (20:45 UTC) Moonrise 3:23PMMoonset 3:05AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 222 Am Pst Mon Nov 19 2018
Today..SE wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Wind waves se 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Tonight..SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves se 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Tue..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves S 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Tue night..SE wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves se 3 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of rain.
Wed..SE wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves se 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 14 seconds. Rain.
Wed night..S wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves se 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 13 seconds. Rain.
Thu..S wind 25 to 30 kt. Combined seas 17 ft.
Fri..W wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 15 ft.
PZZ200 222 Am Pst Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure continues to sit over the waters through today. A weak frontal system is expected to move through the waters Tuesday night and Wednesday. A much stronger system is likely late next week, which could result in 20 foot or greater seas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florence city, OR
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location: 44, -124.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 191740 aaa
afdpqr
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service portland or
939 am pst Mon nov 19 2018
updated aviation section

Synopsis Dry weather with mild days, cool nights and patchy valley
fog will continue through Tuesday. The weather will change Wednesday
as rain spreads into the area from the southwest and is followed by
stronger systems from the west Thursday and Friday. This pattern will
bring valley rain and mountain snow to the area through the end of
the week. Snow levels will be down to pass levels in the cascades
Thursday though Saturday.

Short term Today through Wednesday... The upper ridge that has been
over washington and oregon will shift slowly east today with
continued offshore flow. The clear dry air has allowed some valley
locations to cool into the mid to upper 20s this morning and there is
some patchy fog along the columbia river and patchy freezing fog in
the southern willamette valley. Freezing fog that develops in the
southern willamette valley could create some slick conditions. Other
than that, today will be a sunny day. Tonight the ridge will continue
to shift eastward and there will be more southerly flow aloft that
could bring some smoke from california into the region late in the
day, especially in the southern willamette valley. Most of the smoke
in the northern willamette valley will probably arrive after sunset
tonight and not be too visible. There may be more smoke around on
Tuesday as the mid level flow turns southerly ahead of the first in a
series of approaching weather systems.

By Tuesday night the first weather systems will approach from the
west bringing increasing higher clouds that will gradually lower down
and bring a chance of rain to the coast and coast range late Tuesday
night. Rain will spread into the coast by early Wednesday
morning. Models are having difficulty on many of the details of the
systems expected Wednesday and Thursday. With cold temperatures from
overnight into Wednesday morning in the hood river valley there will
be a chance of freezing rain there as the rain first moves in.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday... Models are struggling
with the systems approaching from the west on Wednesday night an
Thursday with the GFS being the most consistent. The 00z ecwmf now
has a weaker system with on Thursday than the previous 12z run and
the gfs. We have leaned more toward the GFS solution for now. This
would bring a fairly strong front to the coast and spread significant
rain across the area Thursday with snow in the cascade passes. We
will have to continue to watch the situation for possible high winds
along the coast on Thursday. By the weekend the models are out of
agreement and we are using more of a blended solution through Sunday,
but the wetter pattern will probably continue.

Aviation MostlyVFR conditions continues across the area, as
dry easterly flow continues to keep skies clear. Fog continues
to hang on around eug, but should start to lift over the next few
hours, becomingVFR by 19z or 20z. Otherwise,VFR conditions
expected through this evening.

Pdx and approaches...VFR conditions through the evening with clear
skies. Gusty east winds east of the terminal near kttd around 30
kt, but winds will be lighter at the terminal. -mccoy 42

Marine No changes previous discussion follows... Benign
conditions continue today through the first half of Tuesday as
high pressure remains over the coastal waters. We will then shift
to a much more active pattern for the rest of this week, with
the first system impacting the waters Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Expect high-end advisory strength gusts with
this first system, and seas approaching 10 feet.

A stronger system arrives Thursday night into Friday, with solid
gales appearing fairly likely, though latest model runs have
introduced some uncertainty. For now didn't make major changes to
the forecast for this time period. With solid gales, this should
bring seas up into the 15-20 ft range late Thursday through the
first half of Friday. Will need to continue to monitor this
system, as a few model runs have suggested a stronger system with
storm force gusts and seas up near 30 ft. Keep an eye on this
time period if you plan to be crossing our coastal waters
Thursday night into Friday.

Latest models show more uncertainty going into next weekend, as
one shows this active pattern continuing, while the other shows
more benign conditions setting up next weekend. Confidence in the
forecast next weekend is much lower. -mccoy

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 27 mi23 min 51°F4 ft
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 43 mi46 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 53°F 1018.2 hPa (-1.0)
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 43 mi34 min Calm G 1.9 57°F 51°F1018.1 hPa
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 46 mi70 min W 1.9 G 4.1 49°F1018.8 hPa

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR40 mi50 minNNE 310.00 miFair47°F43°F86%1018.7 hPa

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Last 24hr3NW4W3CalmN6N4NE5E4CalmSE3N3CalmNE3CalmSE4SE4CalmS4E3CalmCalmCalmNE4N3
1 day agoE6E5W7W4W6W5NW4W3N5N5N5NE4NE4E3E3CalmCalmSE3SE5SE7SE5SE4CalmCalm
2 days agoN5N10N11N12N10N5CalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3CalmN6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE5NE4E6

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Entrance
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Mon -- 02:44 AM PST     1.82 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:05 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:16 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:07 AM PST     7.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:22 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:45 PM PST     1.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:46 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:42 PM PST     5.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.52.621.82.33.34.55.86.87.276.14.93.52.31.51.41.82.845.15.85.95.4

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:05 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:50 AM PST     1.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:16 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:09 AM PST     6.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:22 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:51 PM PST     1.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:44 PM PST     5.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.13.22.31.71.51.92.845.26.26.66.45.74.53.22.11.31.11.52.43.54.65.25.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.