Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Florence, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:45PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 5:31 PM PDT (00:31 UTC) Moonrise 3:40AMMoonset 5:15PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 244 Pm Pdt Tue May 23 2017
.small craft advisory for winds in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..NW wind 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves N 8 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy drizzle and fog in the evening.
Wed..NW wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves nw 6 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 11 seconds. Occasional drizzle in the morning.
Wed night..NW wind 15 to 20 kt...easing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves nw 5 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 11 seconds...building to nw 8 ft at 10 seconds after midnight.
Thu..N wind 5 to 10 kt...rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 4 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 7 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu night..N wind 15 to 20 kt...easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 7 ft at 10 seconds.
Fri..N wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 5 ft.
Fri night..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 5 ft.
Sat..NW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 5 ft.
Sun..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
PZZ200 244 Pm Pdt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A weak cold front reaches the N waters late this afternoon then south into the southern oregon waters tonight. High pres returns over the waters with gusty winds continuing through Wednesday night. Winds ease Thursday through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florence city, OR
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location: 44, -124.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 232139 aaa
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
238 pm pdt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis An upper level disturbance dropping south will move
inland through washington and northeast oregon tonight. The onshore
flow will strengthen this evening and tonight. The parent upper
trough will remain over the pacific northwest Wednesday for
additional cooling, more clouds, and spotty light precipitation. The
upper trough hangs back over the forecast area Thursday. High
pressure returns Friday for drier, sunnier and warmer weather. Warm
and dry conditions continue through the holiday weekend.

Short term Tonight through Friday... Early afternoon water vapor
imagery showed the strong upper ridge that was over the pac NW sun
and Mon well east into the northern rockies and great basin. A low
pres area was also noted along the southern british columbia coast
with the leading edge of the dry cold front near the N washington
coast. As of 20z the thermally-induced surface trough was located
from near klmt through the columbia basin. Models shift this feature
to the idaho border by late evening. Early-afternoon visible imagery
indicated stratus solidly along the coast and pushing well into the s
washington and far N oregon coastal valleys. The kttd-kdls gradient
has gone from nearly neutral at 15z to 3.5 mb as of 20z. West wind
has pushed through the columbia gorge into k4s2. Some of the more
wind-prone sites in the willapa hills and north oregon coast range
have also noted stronger west to northwest wind.

Models are in general agreement showing the low-level onshore flow
continuing to deepen along the coast and make more penetration into
the coastal valleys through the evening. The hi-res arw suggests
stratocumulus and or cumulus will develop and back-build from the
cascade foothills late this afternoon and through the evening. Based
on latest trends have scaled back the drizzle potential for this
evening. Generally confined any drizzle threat west of the oregon
coast range and SW washington coastal valleys and willapa hills this
evening.

The strengthening onshore flow, in conjunction with increasing west
flow aloft, will result in breezy to windy conditions through this
evening. The strongest wind will be through the coastal gaps, the
columbia river gorge and over the mountains. Breezy to windy
conditions are also likely in the interior valleys as well,
especially those aligned west-to-east.

The primary short-wave moves south and east tonight, but, in its
wake, an upper trough carves out over the pacific northwest
Wednesday, which lingers into Thursday. The NAM would suggest a
marine layer to nearly 5000 feet msl across the northern two-thirds
of the forecast area through early Wed afternoon. NAM forecast
soundings for kpdx and ksle have the top of the marine layer close to
6000 feet msl 19z wed. Models also show a short wave disturbance
rotating through the broad upper trough Wednesday, which should keep
clouds fairly solid over much of the area and possibly result in an
over-turning of the marine layer for more drizzle or even light
showers.

The forecast area will be on the back side the upper trough Thursday.

Nam indicates a fairly solid marine layer across the forecast area
Thursday morning, other than the southeast quarter. GFS and ecmwf
show the cascades will get backdoored with the possibility of some
showers or even a few thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening
associated with the circulation on the back side of the upper trough.

The GFS and NAM are not overly excited about convective prospects
Thursday afternoon. NAM sounding for a point in the N oregon cascades
valid 23z Thu shows little to no cape. Will leave the mention in for
now as not to yo-yo. The increased sunshine should push afternoon
temps inland back into the 70s. Friday looks to be quite pleasant
with minimal morning stratus or fog. Model 850 mb temps rise to +13c
in the far NW to +17c in the lane county cascades, which should
translate to lower to mid 80s in the interior valleys. Weishaar

Long term Friday night through Tuesday. 500 mb high pressure
remains the dominant feature through the weekend. Sat looks to be as
warm as fri, based on forecast 850 mb temps. Sunday is expected to be
a few degree warmer, pushing into the upper 80s for interior valleys,
columbia river gorge and upper hood river valley. The ECMWF has the
500 mb ridge axis squarely over the forecast area Sat through sun
morning, then slowly shifts the ridge axis east Sun afternoon. The
gfs shifts the ridge axis east a little sooner and also tries to
develop some minimal QPF near the cascades, hinting at possible
convection near the crest. The ECMWF maintains more of a SW mid-level
flow mon, although it does hint at a short-wave off the N california
coast resulting in a slightly more unstable s-sw mid-level into the
central cascades. High pres aloft remains sprawled over the western
u.S. Tue for continued warm and dry conditions. The ECMWF and gfs
maintain some light QPF over the cascades tue, but will not mention
thunder at this time due to higher uncertainty based on the gfs
ensembles and GFS and GEFS comparisons. Weishaar

Aviation Coastal TAF cigs are hovering between ifr at 008 and
MVFR at 015. May still see some periods of drizzle
this evening but am now beginning to question if there will be
much of a vsby impact. Stratus has not penetrated inland to
speak of with cig free skies largely continuing through the
evening and overnight hours. Will continue on bringing a stratus
layer inland after 09z for the norther inland terminals and
closer to sunrise for ksle and south. Recent hi-res models are
starting to lean against the idea of impactful stratus, however,
so would not be surprised if the 00z or 06z TAF package removes
the mention entirely. Main impact inland will continue to be a
surge of winds through the coast range gaps. Expect several hours
of wind gusts 20-25 kt this evening as the marine layer surges
inland.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR conditions most likely through this
evening under a rather strong marine wind surge. Expect northwest
gusts around 25 kt to prevail. Once winds began to ease that will
allow a stratus cig to develop perhaps around 015 agl. Am losing
confidence this overnight deck will develop as near-term hi-res
model runs are keeping rather dry conditions in place for a few
hours. If it does develop, then it appears to remain through at
least 24 18z. Jbonk

Marine High pressure over the NE pacific and a thermal low
inland combine to continue SCA wind gusts through Wednesday and
likely a significant portion of Thursday. A weak cold front
reaches our northern waters later this afternoon, resulting in
increased NW winds, but still at small craft advisory speeds.

Winds will start to diminish late Wednesday into Thursday, but it
may not be until Thursday night before gusts drop below 21 kt
across all of the waters. Longer range guidance suggests lighter
wind speeds thereafter through this weekend.

Have expanded the SCA for seas through Wednesday morning across
all waters. A 4 foot background swell may produce a dominant 12
second period at times, but feel the 7 to 9 ft very steep short
period longer fetch wind waves will be prevailing much more
often. Will start to see a 9 to 10 second fresh swell mix in
later tonight and into Wednesday but had little confidence
regarding exact timing. Seas will ease by Thursday as winds ease
with little threat from winds or notable seas affecting the
waters through the weekend.

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 5 pm pdt Wednesday for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out
60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 11 am pdt
Wednesday for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or out 60 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46261 19 mi181 min 50°F7 ft
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 27 mi37 min 53°F8 ft
46260 30 mi181 min 52°F7 ft
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 43 mi55 min NNW 18 G 27 55°F 55°F1019.9 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 43 mi31 min N 15 G 17 52°F 1020.1 hPa (+0.4)
46097 45 mi161 min N 16 54°F 1019.7 hPa
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 46 mi55 min NNE 9.9 G 15 54°F1019.8 hPa

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NW16
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NW15
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N6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Bend, North Bend Municipal Airport, OR40 mi36 minN 19 G 2610.00 miOvercast and Breezy57°F53°F88%1020 hPa

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN16
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N8
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N9N6N7N4NW4N4N5N7
G14
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NE9N7N12N13
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1 day agoN19
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N11N10N7N7N3N6CalmCalmSE3CalmN3CalmCalmNW5NW7N10N13N17
G20
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2 days agoN17
G21
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N8N11E3CalmN5NE4NE4N4E3CalmN3CalmN4N11N14
G20
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N13N15
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G25

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:40 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:02 AM PDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:42 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:10 AM PDT     5.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:50 PM PDT     1.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:14 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:44 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:59 PM PDT     7.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.34.831.40.2-0.20.21.22.74.25.45.95.64.83.62.31.51.21.734.66.27.47.9

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:40 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:43 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:08 AM PDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:12 PM PDT     5.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:56 PM PDT     1.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:13 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:43 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.65.84.52.91.40.3-0.20.11.12.43.84.95.45.24.43.32.11.311.42.545.66.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.