Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Florence, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:39AMSunset 5:17PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 2:21 AM PST (10:21 UTC) Moonrise 8:42PMMoonset 9:38AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 224 Pm Pst Tue Jan 22 2019
.small craft advisory for winds in effect through Wednesday morning...
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..SW wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Occasional local gusts up to 35 kt north of newport. Combined seas 13 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Rain.
Wed..W wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves W 2 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 13 ft at 14 seconds. Chance of rain.
Wed night..N wind to 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 11 ft at 14 seconds.
Thu..NE wind 5 kt. Wind waves ne 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu night..NE wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves ne 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri..NE wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 8 ft.
Fri night..N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 8 ft.
Sat..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 8 ft.
Sun..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 8 ft.
PZZ200 224 Pm Pst Tue Jan 22 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A warm front is finishing its transition across the area. A cold front will then cross the area tonight. High pressure returns during the latter half of the week and into next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florence city, OR
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location: 44, -124.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 230457
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
857 pm pst Tue jan 22 2019

Synopsis A series of fronts traversing the region through the
middle of the week will bring periods of valley rain and mountain
snow before high pressure brings drier weather late in the week and
this weekend.

Short term Tonight through Friday... Warm front was pushing inland
across SW wa this evening, lifting most of the stratiform rain and
snow associated with the isentropic lift north of the forecast area.

The warm front was also bringing a milder air mass, most notably in
rising snow levels over the cascades. A final band of rain was seen
in radar already moving inland over SW wa coast, and extending
offshore to the sw. This was preceding the cold front which is
expected drop SE and inland late tonight. Will let the advisory for
snow in the south wa cascades run its course this evening and expire
at 10 pm, by which time snow levels will be quickly rising to 6k ft.

A fairly strong low level onshore flow follows the cold front, which
will keep good chances for showers going into wed, ESP over west
facing slopes where orographic lift wil be most prominent.

Remainder of short term discussion unchanged... Wednesday into
Wednesday night, the overall trend will be towards the area drying
out. In locations that clear, areas of late night and morning fog
will develop Wednesday night and early Thursday. Both the ECMWF and
gfs show a shortwave moving through briefly sometime between
Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. For now, have trended towards
the ECMWF with the timing, putting some low pops in the forecast for
the possibility of some light showers with the shortwave Thursday
during the day, mostly limited to the cascade foothills.

Upper high pressure centered near the california coast shifts
eastward beginning Friday, bringing the ridge axis closer to the
oregon washington coast. This will begin a period of dry weather with
lowland late night morning fog. Bowen

Long term Friday night through Tuesday... Operational models and
their ensembles are in good agreement the area will remain under a
large ridge into early next week. This will produce a multi-day
stretch of dry weather, mild temperatures, and areas of late night
and morning valley fog. East winds become increasingly likely late in
the weekend into early next week. Models diverge regarding the
pattern by Tuesday with regards to the location of the ridge axis.

There is some possibility that the ridge axis will move back west,
allowing a shortwave to move through the local area, sparking
showers. For now, have introduced some low pops for Tuesday.

It should be noted that models suggest the flow will turn weakly
offshore Saturday, particularly along the central oregon coast. With
850mb temperatures climbing into the 11-13c range, many locations
along the coast, in the coast range, and even in the cascade
foothills will climb into the upper 50s to low 60s. Even mid to
upper 60s do not appear out of the question. Willamette valley
temperatures will be a little more tricky given areas of morning fog
could hamper temperatures. Held temperatures on the warm side to even
slightly above model guidance for most areas, but still kept
temperatures well shy of records for now. Records are possible for
areas of the coast prone to downslope winds, though. Bowen neuman

Aviation A warm front moved east of the area this evening.

Radar and satellite shows a well defined cold front approaching
the north oregon and south washington coast as of 04z. Current
timing has the front moving to kpdx and vicinity around 06z and
south and east of keug by 09z. As the front moves through,
widespread MVFR and possible ifr conditions will return inland.

Coastal areas are expected to remain in MVFR and ifr category
into Wed morning.

Kpdx and approaches... As of 04zVFR in the areas, but will likely
return to MVFR with CIGS around 2500 feet and reduced visibility
as well as the cold front moves through. There may be a short
periods of ifr with and after the front. Generally expect MVFR
cigs 1500-2500 feet through much of wed, through may trend to low
vfr late in the day. Mh

Marine A gale warning continues for the northern marine zones
tonight as a cold front moves through the waters. Winds have
been gusting in the 30 to 40 kt range this evening and should
ease some by midnight. Gusts to 35 kt will likely continue
through at least 2 am wed. A following trough reaches the waters
by 5 am Wed will keep winds gusty but below gale force. Mh
seas around 8 to 11 ft and will build into the low teens through
the evening in response to the warm frontal passage tonight. A
small craft advisory has been issued for seas from this afternoon
through Wed afternoon. Seas expected to be near or above 10 ft
into early thu.

After the frontal passage, a benign pattern develops until this
weekend. This weekend, current operational models show a thermal
trough developing along the coast in a very similar manner to
our typical summer systems. Winds and seas are expected to remain
below advisory levels during this time, but small craft advisory
winds could develop under the northerly flow by the start of
next week. 42

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening for south
washington cascades.

Pz... Gale warning until 4 am pst Wednesday for coastal waters from
cape shoalwater wa to cascade head or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for winds until 7 am pst Wednesday for
coastal waters from cascade head or to florence or out 60
nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 4 pm pst
Wednesday for coastal waters from cascade head or to
florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 4 pm
pst Wednesday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 43 mi21 min SSW 25 G 29 52°F 1025.7 hPa (+0.4)
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 43 mi33 min SW 11 G 23 52°F 51°F1026 hPa
46097 45 mi151 min SW 21 52°F 53°F1023.6 hPa
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 46 mi45 min S 4.1 G 9.9 52°F1029.6 hPa

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR40 mi25 minS 12 G 188.00 miLight Rain52°F50°F93%1029.6 hPa

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE5SE6SE7SE4S7SE6--SE5SE6SE6SE8S7S7S6S8S9S8S8S8S8S10
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1 day agoCalmCalmE3--CalmSE5SE6SE4SE4--W33NW7NW4NW4CalmSE4SE5SE5SE5SE5SE6SE5SE6
2 days agoSE3CalmNW5CalmS4S5SE6SE9SE8SE6SE9S6SE6SE7E5SE7SE5SE4SE4E3S8SE4N6N4

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Entrance
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Wed -- 01:55 AM PST     7.47 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:24 AM PST     2.47 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:37 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:12 PM PST     8.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:14 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:06 PM PST     -1.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:42 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.87.17.575.94.53.22.52.63.556.788.78.47.25.33.11-0.5-1.1-0.70.62.6

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:57 AM PST     6.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:41 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:30 AM PST     2.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:36 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:14 PM PST     7.98 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:15 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:42 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:12 PM PST     -0.94 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.55.36.46.86.45.442.92.12.22.94.35.97.37.97.76.7531.1-0.3-0.9-0.60.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.