Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oshkosh, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:21PM Sunday May 20, 2018 4:48 PM CDT (21:48 UTC) Moonrise 10:38AMMoonset 12:44AM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ543 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 308 Pm Cdt Sun May 20 2018
Tonight..NE wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly clear.
Monday..E wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Monday night..E wind 5 to 10 kts backing N in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly cloudy.
Tuesday..N wind 5 to 10 kts veering se mid-day, then veering S early in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing.
LMZ543 Expires:201805210415;;266367 FZUS53 KGRB 202008 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 308 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-210415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oshkosh, WI
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location: 44.02, -88.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 202042
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
342 pm cdt Sun may 20 2018
forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

Short term Tonight and Monday
issued at 335 pm cdt Sun may 20 2018
a dry night is expected across the area as high pressure
pushes into the region from the north. Clouds will continue to
slowly shift south and or thin out late this afternoon, but may
continue to clip locations from wisconsin rapids to manitowoc. The
clouds (mainly cirrus) will begin to move north again later
tonight ahead of the next low pressure system approaching from the
southwest. Light winds and mostly clear skies will provide ideal
conditions for radiational cooling this evening, especially
across the north, but high clouds are expected to spread across
much of the area later this evening into the overnight hours,
which could slow the cooling. Best performing guidance shows lows
mainly in the middle 30s for most spots across northern wi, with
a few of the typical cold spots dropping into the lower 30s or
even upper 20s for a short period overnight. Opted to not issue a
frost advisory, with more patchy areas of frost expected (vs
widespread), as the clouds increase overnight plus most locations
will only fall below 35-37 degrees for a short period. That said,
if people have sensitive vegetation, precautions should be made.

Will continue to highlight in the hwo. Farther south, lows will
drop mainly in the 40s.

Majority of models have trended north wetter for Monday as a weak
surface low decaying mesoscale convective system (mcs) tracks
from iowa into southern lake michigan by Monday evening. We will
be on the northern fridge of what is left of it. There is always a
chance with an MCS that models are too far north with it, but most
meso models have some rain approaching the fox valley lakeshore
Monday morning. Will have the highest pops across the far
southeast. Additional weak forcing from a shortwave trough passing
through will keep lower chances for rain for locations across
central wi and across the east in the afternoon. Very little to no
instability shown on the model soundings, so will not mention any
thunder. Northern wi looks to stay dry. High will vary greatly
across the area. With more clouds precip expected, plus a wind off
of lake michigan, lowered forecast highs over the fox valley
lakeshore into the mid 50s to lower 60s. The warmest temps will be
across far northern wi where the lower and middle 70s are
expected.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
issued at 335 pm cdt Sun may 20 2018
some showers may linger across the south Monday night before
ridging builds in on Tuesday, keeping the area dry through
Wednesday. This ridge quickly breaks down Thursday and Friday as a
low pressure system develops over the plains, then heads east
through the western great lakes region Friday and Saturday. There
is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the timing of this system,
however the models seem to agree there will be a period where
showers and thunderstorms are possible from late Wednesday night
through next weekend.

During this period there is the potential for strong storms Friday
and Friday night as instability increases across the western great
lakes region. Although mucapes rise to 2000 to 3000 j kg during
this period, bulk shear is a fairly paltry 15 to 20 knots. On
Saturday mucapes fall a bit to 1000 to 2000 j kg with about the
same bulk shear, however wind profiles are fairly unidirectional.

Therefore will continue with the strong storm wording in the hwo
and refrain from mentioning severe given the uncertainty regarding
the timing of the low approaching from the west and the
unfavorable wind profiles.

Aviation For 18z TAF issuance
issued at 1245 pm cdt Sun may 20 2018
vfr flying conditions are expected this afternoon into Monday
morning. High clouds will continue to thin out across the area
this afternoon as high pressure pushes across the area. The
lower thicker clouds along south of a wisconsin rapids to
manitowoc line will slowly shift a little to the south and mix
out through the afternoon.

Clouds will increase once again from the south overnight into
Monday as another weak weather system moves into the area. Rain
showers arrive late Monday morning into Monday afternoon across
portions central and east central wi, highest chances at mtw, atw
and grb, with CIGS lowering as the rain arrives.

Fire weather
Issued at 335 pm cdt Sun may 20 2018
rainfall amounts over the next few days are not expected to
alleviate the abnormally dry conditions across the north. Warm
and dry conditions are expected through Wednesday, resulting in
an elevated fire weather conditions and worsening drought
conditions. Relative humidities are expected to be in the middle
teens to lower 20s on Monday, with a slow moderation to 25 to 40
percent by the middle of the week. Some relief is expected by the
end of the week as a low pressure system is slated to bring a
widespread rain to the region.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Bersch
long term... ... Kurimski
aviation... ... .Bersch
fire weather... Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 50 mi49 min N 5.1 G 6 43°F 1024.3 hPa (-0.5)39°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 57 mi69 min NE 7 G 9.9 47°F 1025.1 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Last
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E2
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G16
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NE11
G17
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NE5
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NE3
SE10
G14
S7
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E1
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G9
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NE12
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G14

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wittman Regional Airport, WI1 mi56 minNE 510.00 miFair60°F42°F52%1023.1 hPa
Appleton-Outagamie, WI17 mi64 minNE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F15°F16%1022.7 hPa
Fond Du Lac County Airport, WI18 mi56 minVar 410.00 miFair60°F46°F62%1023.2 hPa

Wind History from OSH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE9SE5E11
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G22
NE13NE11NE11NE7N8N11N8NE10NE9NE9NE5NE8NE9E6NE7NE5
1 day agoE11E9NE6NE6E4E4E5E6E5E8E7E5E5E6SE3CalmCalmNE3N44W6NW93SE4
2 days agoNE14NE16NE13E7E13
G17
NE8NE9NE7E5E8E7E4E7E4E7E7E9E9E8E8E9E10E15E11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.