Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oshkosh, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:26PM Thursday May 25, 2017 3:11 PM CDT (20:11 UTC) Moonrise 5:34AMMoonset 8:15PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ543 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 119 Pm Cdt Thu May 25 2017
This afternoon..NE wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Partly cloudy.
Tonight..N wind 5 to 10 kts backing nw after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Patchy fog after midnight.
Friday..E wind around 5 kts veering S in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning.
Friday night..S wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy.
LMZ543 Expires:201705252215;;193482 FZUS53 KGRB 251819 NSHGRB NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 119 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ541>543-252215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oshkosh, WI
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location: 44.02, -88.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 251944
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
244 pm cdt Thu may 25 2017
forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 244 pm cdt Thu may 25 2017
the holiday weekend will start out mild with just some scattered
light precipitation, but likely end on a little cooler and more
showery note.

The upper pattern over eastern north america will gradually
transition from a somewhat blocky regime to fairly consolidated
northwest flow during the period. The upper low currently over the
eastern great lakes region will shift east. That will allow the
upper flow to temporarily back to the southwest ahead of the next
approaching upper system dropping southeast from canada. That
system will slow and linger in the lake superior region next week
as ridging strengthens back upstream along the west coast.

Temperatures will be near seasonal normals early in the period,
then drop back to a little below normal in the developing
northwest upper flow next week. There will be several
opportunities for precipitation, but most precipitation events
look to be composed of scattered to numerous showers rather than
widespread soaking rains. As such, amounts are likely to end up
near normal for the 7 day period.

Short term Tonight and Friday
issued at 244 pm cdt Thu may 25 2017
satellite and a few developing radar returns suggest some
sprinkles or light showers could still develop over northeast
wisconsin during the late afternoon. The cellular clouds across
the area will dissipate with the loss of heating, and mid and high
clouds with the next system are still pretty far to the west. So
backed down on skycon for tonight. Light winds under the ridge
axis could allow some fog and stratus to form however, especially
in the east.

Precipitation chances for Friday look modest at best. The upper
ridge will be flattening across the area as upper speed MAX and
mid-level shortwave drive into the region from the west. But
moisture will be limited and mid-level lapse rates are modest. So
kept pops in the chance category, with the best chances across the
west and southwest.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
issued at 244 pm cdt Thu may 25 2017
500mb pattern across north america will be dominated by a western
ridge and eastern trough. Northwest flow pattern will continue
across the western great lakes through much of next week. Weak
disturbances and associated weak cold fronts will trigger
showers and some thunderstorm activity from time to time during
the period.

For Friday night, any instability showers should end during the
evening, except across the far north where a few showers may
linger overnight. Per latest numerical guidance, did add some
patchy fog into the forecast. On Saturday, a weak boundary will
move across central and northeast wisconsin. This feature may
trigger a few showers along it. Based on the latest model trends,
expand rain chances eastward as the lakebreeze boundary may also
trigger shower activity. Any shower activity should end Saturday
evening. Attention then turns to another shortwave and associated
cold front that moves into the region during the day Sunday. This
system still has some intrigue with respect to potential
thunderstorm activity. Models continued to show 300 to 500 j kg
of cape, lifted indices dropping to 0c to -5c depending on model
of choice, and steep mid level lapse rates around 6.5 c km. What
makes this event more intriguing is that the 0-6km wind shear
has substantially increased to 25 to 30 knots compared to
yesterday. Low wet bulb heights around 7000 feet also noted
along with some dry air in the mid levels. If this feature
should move into the area during the peak heating of the day,
some of the storms could produce some gusty winds, small hail
and brief heavy rain. Model timing is somewhat uncertain, but
will need to watch. Any thunderstorm activity should end Sunday
evening.

More instability showers are in the forecast for memorial day
along with a slight chance of thunderstorms. The northwest flow
pattern and disturbances moving through the mean pattern will
bring off and on chances for showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Could
not rule out a thunderstorm during this period, but too low to
put into the forecast at this time. Low confidence in the dry
forecast for Thursday based on the weather pattern. Mild
temperatures are expected this weekend, then trend below normal
for much of next week.

Aviation For 18z TAF issuance
issued at 113 pm cdt Thu may 25 2017
satellite showed CU increasing during the late morning and early
afternoon. Expect that to continue for a few more hours, but bases
will beVFR except for a few locations in east-central wisconsin.

Expect some fog to form tonight, especially over east-central
wisconsin where the ridge axis will be located. Main question is
how widespread it will become. Opted to handle with tempo ifr
conditions in the tafs for now, but will need to monitor that
closely to see if that will be sufficient.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Skowronski
long term... ... Eckberg
aviation... ... .Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 50 mi72 min NNE 19 G 21 50°F 1004.2 hPa (+0.0)48°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 57 mi32 min NE 11 G 14 56°F 1005.4 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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N9
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S12
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NE9
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G6
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G14
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G16
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G12
N7
G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wittman Regional Airport, WI1 mi19 minNNE 910.00 miFair68°F53°F59%1004.2 hPa
Appleton-Outagamie, WI17 mi27 minENE 10 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F46°F46%1004.4 hPa
Fond Du Lac, Fond Du Lac County Airport, WI18 mi19 minNNE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F51°F57%1004.7 hPa

Wind History from OSH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE12NE12NE13N11N10N10N9NE10N12N9NE11N9N8N8N8N8N8NE8NE11NE12NE6NE9NE7N9
1 day agoNE11
G15
NE10NE10NE9NE12
G17
NE10NE8NE12NE11
G18
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NE11NE9NE9NE8NE8NE8NE7NE10N11NE10NE10N12
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2 days agoSW11
G16
SW11
G19
SW12
G21
SW10
G17
S7S5S6S7S7CalmCalmS3E5CalmCalmS4S4S5S5NE6NE8N14N13NE14
G20

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.