Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Henry, NY
April 17, 2024 5:32 PM EDT (21:32 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:02 AM Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 1:26 PM Moonset 3:51 AM |
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 171910 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 310 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weakening area of surface low pressure moving into the Great Lakes region combined with embedded shortwave energy aloft will bring a period of light rain to the forecast area late tonight through Thursday. Dry conditions follow for Friday morning, but a cold front passage in the afternoon and evening will bring an additional round of light rain. Mostly dry conditions and seasonally cool temperatures are expected for the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...Overall the forecast for tonight through Thursday night remains on track with a weakening are of surface low pressure tracking into the Great Lakes region being the main feature of interest for weather across the North Country and Vermont.
Shortwave energy ejecting out of the parent mid/upper level trough on southwest flow will provide the support for showers to develop late tonight through Thursday as a ribbon of enhanced low to mid level moisture moves in on the nose of a modest 925-850mb jet. Ahead of the precipitation, southeasterly winds look more robust compared to the previous forecast with good mixing ahead of the precipitation and 925mb winds in the favored downslope prone regions topping out around 45kts. Think areas along the western slopes of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains will see gusts in excess of 35mph for a short period after midnight through midday Thursday before the areal coverage of showers increases and the low levels stabilize.
Showers may linger into the first half of Thursday night as well with low clouds and moisture potentially supporting some areas of drizzle through the night as well. Overall the basin average QPF will be light though, with generally 0.2" or less across Vermont and up to a third of an inch possible across northern New York. Min temps tonight and Thursday night will be on the mild side of normal in the upper 30s to mid 40s, and highs won't be much warmer on Thursday in the mid 40s to low 50s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...As we transition further into Spring, days like Friday will become increasingly common. Slated for Friday will be a one-two combo with a prefrontal trough during the afternoon and the actual front coming through after sunset. The highest chances for showers will be Friday afternoon, but most forcing will come from isentropic upglide. Overall, the better dynamics are to our north, and the frontal boundary is diffuse.
Precipitation amounts will be at or less than 0.10" favoring northern New York and the northern Greens. Breezy south to southwest flow will yield wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph, especially in the northern Champlain Valley and northern slopes of the Adirondacks.
High temperatures will mainly be in the 50s, with a few spot 60s in warmer locales within the St. Lawrence and northern Champlain Valley. Cold air before the front could bring a few summit snow showers as temperatures sink into upper 30s to lower 40s at low elevations, 30s in the Adirondack wilderness, and Mt. Marcy and Whiteface into the upper 20s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...There are several vigorous shortwave troughs that will traverse the region over the weekend into the new week. However, none of them really tap into a tropical moisture feed. The strongest one will swing through on Saturday. Although surface moisture will be decreasing from a recent frontal passage and surface pressures are rising, the vorticity advection with the trough is quite strong and there will be steep low level lapse rates with up to 100 J/kg of CAPE. It is difficult to say whether precipitation can reach the ground. Forecast soundings depict very dry near surface conditions. What this may do is produce virga that also create gusty winds as the steep low-level lapse rates aid in the acceleration of downdrafts in convective activity. For now, the forecast depicts the highest precipitation chances along the international border where the shortwave tracks and keeps conditions dry south with wind gusts generally 25 to 30 mph, locally up to 35 mph.
The next shortwave trough moves in almost immediately behind the previous system, racing through Saturday night. Ultimately, this system will likely have too little moisture and will reinforce cool air that should keep the region around seasonal norms. The next upper trough will descend over Quebec Province late Sunday evening into Monday, but the front is so diffuse and it will again be moisture starved. Upper level troughiness gets briefly interrupted by a weak ridge and south to southwest flow to produce some warmer temperatures. However, by late next Tuesday evening into next Wednesday, there is another trough. This one should have some more moisture with it and have a larger impact on sensible weather conditions with shower activity sliding in for the middle of next week.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions will largely prevail across the region for the next 24 hours with a slowly approaching front bringing MVFR conditions only into KMSS after 12Z, holding off at all other sites until after 18Z. Otherwise, mid/high clouds will continue to thicken across the region this afternoon and lower overnight to 6-10kft by Thursday morning and to around mountain summit levels through 18Z. Variable winds this afternoon at 6-8kts will trend southeasterly at all sites overnight and become gusty up to 25kts Thursday, strongest at KBTV. Exception will be KMSS where northeasteries will prevail through the period and gusts will be more persistent in the 18-25kt range.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 310 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weakening area of surface low pressure moving into the Great Lakes region combined with embedded shortwave energy aloft will bring a period of light rain to the forecast area late tonight through Thursday. Dry conditions follow for Friday morning, but a cold front passage in the afternoon and evening will bring an additional round of light rain. Mostly dry conditions and seasonally cool temperatures are expected for the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...Overall the forecast for tonight through Thursday night remains on track with a weakening are of surface low pressure tracking into the Great Lakes region being the main feature of interest for weather across the North Country and Vermont.
Shortwave energy ejecting out of the parent mid/upper level trough on southwest flow will provide the support for showers to develop late tonight through Thursday as a ribbon of enhanced low to mid level moisture moves in on the nose of a modest 925-850mb jet. Ahead of the precipitation, southeasterly winds look more robust compared to the previous forecast with good mixing ahead of the precipitation and 925mb winds in the favored downslope prone regions topping out around 45kts. Think areas along the western slopes of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains will see gusts in excess of 35mph for a short period after midnight through midday Thursday before the areal coverage of showers increases and the low levels stabilize.
Showers may linger into the first half of Thursday night as well with low clouds and moisture potentially supporting some areas of drizzle through the night as well. Overall the basin average QPF will be light though, with generally 0.2" or less across Vermont and up to a third of an inch possible across northern New York. Min temps tonight and Thursday night will be on the mild side of normal in the upper 30s to mid 40s, and highs won't be much warmer on Thursday in the mid 40s to low 50s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...As we transition further into Spring, days like Friday will become increasingly common. Slated for Friday will be a one-two combo with a prefrontal trough during the afternoon and the actual front coming through after sunset. The highest chances for showers will be Friday afternoon, but most forcing will come from isentropic upglide. Overall, the better dynamics are to our north, and the frontal boundary is diffuse.
Precipitation amounts will be at or less than 0.10" favoring northern New York and the northern Greens. Breezy south to southwest flow will yield wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph, especially in the northern Champlain Valley and northern slopes of the Adirondacks.
High temperatures will mainly be in the 50s, with a few spot 60s in warmer locales within the St. Lawrence and northern Champlain Valley. Cold air before the front could bring a few summit snow showers as temperatures sink into upper 30s to lower 40s at low elevations, 30s in the Adirondack wilderness, and Mt. Marcy and Whiteface into the upper 20s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...There are several vigorous shortwave troughs that will traverse the region over the weekend into the new week. However, none of them really tap into a tropical moisture feed. The strongest one will swing through on Saturday. Although surface moisture will be decreasing from a recent frontal passage and surface pressures are rising, the vorticity advection with the trough is quite strong and there will be steep low level lapse rates with up to 100 J/kg of CAPE. It is difficult to say whether precipitation can reach the ground. Forecast soundings depict very dry near surface conditions. What this may do is produce virga that also create gusty winds as the steep low-level lapse rates aid in the acceleration of downdrafts in convective activity. For now, the forecast depicts the highest precipitation chances along the international border where the shortwave tracks and keeps conditions dry south with wind gusts generally 25 to 30 mph, locally up to 35 mph.
The next shortwave trough moves in almost immediately behind the previous system, racing through Saturday night. Ultimately, this system will likely have too little moisture and will reinforce cool air that should keep the region around seasonal norms. The next upper trough will descend over Quebec Province late Sunday evening into Monday, but the front is so diffuse and it will again be moisture starved. Upper level troughiness gets briefly interrupted by a weak ridge and south to southwest flow to produce some warmer temperatures. However, by late next Tuesday evening into next Wednesday, there is another trough. This one should have some more moisture with it and have a larger impact on sensible weather conditions with shower activity sliding in for the middle of next week.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions will largely prevail across the region for the next 24 hours with a slowly approaching front bringing MVFR conditions only into KMSS after 12Z, holding off at all other sites until after 18Z. Otherwise, mid/high clouds will continue to thicken across the region this afternoon and lower overnight to 6-10kft by Thursday morning and to around mountain summit levels through 18Z. Variable winds this afternoon at 6-8kts will trend southeasterly at all sites overnight and become gusty up to 25kts Thursday, strongest at KBTV. Exception will be KMSS where northeasteries will prevail through the period and gusts will be more persistent in the 18-25kt range.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Troy
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:51 AM EDT 4.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:47 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:19 AM EDT 0.98 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:08 PM EDT 5.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:29 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 07:39 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:02 PM EDT 0.57 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:51 AM EDT 4.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:47 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:19 AM EDT 0.98 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:08 PM EDT 5.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:29 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 07:39 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:02 PM EDT 0.57 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
12 am |
4.1 |
1 am |
4.3 |
2 am |
4 |
3 am |
3.3 |
4 am |
2.8 |
5 am |
2.3 |
6 am |
1.6 |
7 am |
1 |
8 am |
1.2 |
9 am |
2.2 |
10 am |
3.3 |
11 am |
4.2 |
12 pm |
4.9 |
1 pm |
5.2 |
2 pm |
5 |
3 pm |
4.3 |
4 pm |
3.5 |
5 pm |
2.9 |
6 pm |
2 |
7 pm |
1.1 |
8 pm |
0.6 |
9 pm |
1 |
10 pm |
1.9 |
11 pm |
2.9 |
Albany
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:43 AM EDT 4.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:47 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:09 AM EDT 0.98 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:00 PM EDT 5.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:30 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 07:40 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 07:52 PM EDT 0.57 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:43 AM EDT 4.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:47 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:09 AM EDT 0.98 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:00 PM EDT 5.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:30 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 07:40 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 07:52 PM EDT 0.57 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Albany, New York, Tide feet
12 am |
4.2 |
1 am |
4.3 |
2 am |
3.9 |
3 am |
3.2 |
4 am |
2.7 |
5 am |
2.2 |
6 am |
1.5 |
7 am |
1 |
8 am |
1.3 |
9 am |
2.4 |
10 am |
3.5 |
11 am |
4.3 |
12 pm |
4.9 |
1 pm |
5.2 |
2 pm |
4.9 |
3 pm |
4.2 |
4 pm |
3.4 |
5 pm |
2.7 |
6 pm |
1.9 |
7 pm |
0.9 |
8 pm |
0.6 |
9 pm |
1.1 |
10 pm |
2.1 |
11 pm |
3 |
Burlington, VT,
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