Friday, July28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caseville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 9:03PM Friday July 28, 2017 9:03 AM EDT (13:03 UTC) Moonrise 11:08AMMoonset 11:08PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 343 Am Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt this morning through late tonight...
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201707281500;;947946 FZUS53 KDTX 280743 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 343 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-281500-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI
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location: 44.03, -83.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 281105
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
705 am edt Fri jul 28 2017

Aviation
Cold core upper level low tracking through southeast michigan today,
but moisture is lacking, and probably struggling to generate
ceilings below 5000 feet, much less showers or thunderstorms. If an
isolate shower or thunderstorm were to develop, would probably be in
the vicinity of the southern TAF sites, but mention will be left out
of TAF forecast. Northeast winds around 15 knots are expected during
the day, decreasing to around 5 knots tonight under clear skies.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs AOB 5kft today.

* very low for thunderstorm this afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 350 am edt Fri jul 28 2017
discussion...

a cooler and drier environment now entrenched across southeast
michigan, this transition sustained via persistent low level
northeast flow immediately downstream of building high pressure.

Strong mid level circulation remains forecast to rapidly transit the
region during the daylight period. The underlying DCVA and cold
pool dynamics tied to this system will present at least a low
probability for convective development, particularly with
southeastward extent. However, the high degree of deep layer drying
certainly casts doubt on the prospects of seeing a greater response.

Recent hi-res guidance suggest the greater potential will reside
just to the south and east, where some localized convergence may
capitalize on a weakly unstable late day environment - MLCAPE below
500 j kg. Ultimately, looking at a limited window for possible low
end coverage during the early-mid afternoon period, before renewed
mid level drying overwhelms a marginally moist cloud layer.

Afternoon temperatures will arrive on the cooler side of average,
with readings broadly distributed across the 70s - coolest in the
thumb given the onshore flow.

High pressure will remain anchored over the northern great lakes
throughout the upcoming weekend. The presence of deep layer
subsidence and persistent north to northeast low level flow ensures
dry and stable conditions will hold throughout the period. Plenty
of sunshine and lower humidity will yield pleasant summertime
conditions for the last weekend in july.

Sprawling high pressure will remain tucked beneath low amplitude and
loosely organized upper level northwest flow during the early next
week. Gradual airmass modification under slowly building heights
will bring highs back into the lower and middle 80s during this
time. Dry conditions will hold, reinforced by transient shortwave
ridging through Tuesday. As height falls begin to carve out a
broader longwave trough across southern canada, this may allow a
frontal boundary to ease into the region by Wednesday Thursday. Next
shot for rainfall during this time.

Marine...

moderate northeast flow between 20 to 25 knots will develop over the
nearshore waters today, and small craft advisories remain in effect,
as significant wave heights up to five feet and maximum wave heights
near seven feet are expected over the southern lake huron basin.

Northeast winds will be lighter tomorrow, and very light on Sunday
as high pressure settles overhead.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement through this evening for miz049-055-063-083.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Saturday for lhz421-422-441>443.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory from noon today to midnight edt tonight for
lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory from noon today to 4 am edt Saturday for
lez444.

Aviation... ..Sf
discussion... Mr
marine... ... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi59 min NE 16 G 19 68°F 1016.9 hPa
KP58 20 mi72 min ENE 15 67°F 1015.5 hPa60°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 21 mi83 min ENE 6 G 13 67°F 1016.6 hPa
45163 23 mi43 min ENE 14 G 16 69°F 70°F2 ft
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 31 mi45 min NE 15 G 19 66°F 1015.8 hPa60°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 33 mi63 min ENE 18 G 20 68°F 1015.2 hPa (+0.6)
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 44 mi73 min NE 14 G 16 65°F 65°F1 ft1016.7 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi68 minNNE 610.00 miFair63°F59°F89%1016.6 hPa
Port Hope, MI20 mi72 minENE 15 mi67°F60°F79%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW3NE5NE6NE9N8N7NE7NE9N9N7NE4N6N4CalmNE3NE3CalmCalmN3N3N4NE4E6
1 day agoS6S11S12
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SW8CalmSW3SE5S11SW7S3CalmS4S7CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago------E4E5CalmS5CalmE3E5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4CalmS4S4S6S5S6S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.