Saturday, January20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caseville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:00AMSunset 5:33PM Saturday January 20, 2018 9:30 PM EST (02:30 UTC) Moonrise 10:01AMMoonset 9:07PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 357 Pm Est Sat Jan 20 2018
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy early in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots until late afternoon becoming light and variable. Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Cloudy. Areas of fog. A chance of light rain and snow showers until early morning. A chance of light freezing rain after midnight.
Monday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Areas of fog early in the morning. Freezing rain in the morning. Rain showers in the late morning and afternoon. Waves omitted due to ice coverage. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201801210415;;742307 FZUS53 KDTX 202057 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 357 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-210415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI
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location: 44.03, -83.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 210000
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
700 pm est Sat jan 20 2018

Aviation
Warm front will become increasingly organized to the south of lower
michigan this evening before lifting northward into the forecast
area later tonight. Outstanding, synoptic scale forcing will aid in
the development of the boundary and provide what should be a fair
amount of overrunning and isentropic ascent with time. First order
predictor has been extrapolating the timing of the stratus deck that
is now lifting northward through portions of in and oh. Timing from
earlier forecast has been holding up, expecting MVFR stratus and
some light br hz by 02z this evening. First push of 300k isentropic
ascent will arrive over the detroit terminals after 09z which should
allow for onset of ifr. Given the lack of deep saturation in the
forecast soundings, especially in arw and rap soundings, decision
was to switch weather to drizzle and keep light rain out of the
forecast. High confidence in surface air temperatures above
freezing. Widespread rain is expected to hold off until around
daybreak Monday.

For dtw... VFR will lower to MVFR in stratus during the evening, and
then down to ifr lifr in stratus and fog overnight. Temperatures are
expected to be above freezing before the greatest potential for
drizzle develops Sunday morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight through Sunday.

* low confidence in visibilities less than 1 2 mile.

* low confidence in ceiling heights at or less than 200 feet.

* high for drizzle as precipitation type Sunday morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 329 pm est Sat jan 20 2018
weak surface gradient flow under nearly zonal flow aloft will lead
to pleasant conditions with light winds and a few high clouds
streaming over michigan today. High pressure across the southeastern
us will keep the warmer southwesterly flow across southeast
michigan, though not much of a change compared to yesterday from a
thermal advection standpoint. This will only allow the diurnal
response to increase high temperatures slightly from yesterday into
the low 40s for most of the area with a few locations remaining in
the upper 30s.

Low stratus clouds associated with a plume of moisture pushing
northward in the 925-850 mb layer has been slow to reach michigan,
but anticipate that it will eventually enter the area by tonight.

The eastern edge of this moisture can be see on satellite moving
over il in this afternoon. This push of moisture will bring with it
some fog potential. How dense the fog becomes remains uncertain, at
least for the early part of tonight, with the higher dewpoints
lagging a bit. Though, conditions will be favorable for some patchy
fog to develop. This warm air advection and surge of theta-e may
allow for some areas of light rain drizzle to develop by tomorrow
morning across the lower half of michigan. The warmer guidance with
temperatures remaining at or slightly above freezing overnight into
the early morning hours. This suggests only a small window of
opportunity with little impact expected if any light precipitation
were to occur at locations hovering around the freezing mark before
the diurnal response squashes any lasting frozen precipitation
chances.

Tomorrow will likely be a gloomy day with cloudy and moist
conditions and the potential for fog to stick around as snow melt
continues throughout the day. An increase in rain chances for Sunday
into Sunday night look possible given the weak isentropic ascent and
presence of a frontal boundary stretching eastward from the
developing surface low in the central plains. Will need to monitor
precip and temperature trends heading into tomorrow night, mainly in
the northern thumb and northern parts of the tri-cities. Current
forecast lows overnight will be below freezing in the low 30s and
upper 20s. With increased precipitation chances, a small window of
light freezing rain drizzle will be possible.

A dynamic system will bring categorical pops for Monday as a low-mid
level cyclone ejects out of the central plains and into the western
great lakes by Monday afternoon. The zonal flow will shift to strong
south southwesterly flow with southeast michigan residing on the
eastern end of the surface low and in the warm sector. Uncertainty
with the position and timing of the surface cyclone remain with the
gfs a little faster and the ECMWF a little slower. However, rain
chances still remain good Monday afternoon and into the Monday
evening time frame. Transition for rain to a rain snow mix enters
the forecast late Monday night into Tuesday morning as temps drop
overnight.

Low pressure is expected to be positioned across lake huron by 12z
Tuesday, and will continue to push northeast into ontario throughout
the afternoon, bringing lingering precipitation chances to southeast
michigan. The chance for light scattered showers will hold on
throughout the morning hours before cold canadian air wraps around
the northwest side of the low, bringing the slight chance for a
wintry mix to snow transition throughout the afternoon. Minimal snow
accumulations are expected at this time for the rain that does
transition to snow.

Otherwise, an amplified long-wave trough and associated broad
surface high pressure system will fill in across the eastern u.S.

Through the mid to late-week period, bringing an extended period of
dry conditions Wednesday - Friday. Cloud cover is expected to start
to scour out throughout Thursday, bringing periods of sunshine for
both Thursday and Friday as temperatures remain seasonal to slightly
above seasonal. WAA is expected to continue to ramp up into
Saturday, allowing temperatures to potentially peak in the mid to
upper-40s for a high. Saturday, however, will also mark next chance
for likely widespread rain chances as southwesterly brings a warm
front and a surge of moist air to the region, providing enough
forcing and moisture for widespread rain chances.

Marine...

a weak cold front will settle over the north third of lake huron
tonight and stall there during Sunday. This will allow a warm front
to bring mild air in from the ohio valley over all other marine
areas. The boundaries will merge into a stronger warm front by
Monday as low pressure strengthens over the central plains and
midwest. This system will produce widespread coverage of
precipitation, primarily rain from saginaw bay southward and a
wintry mix to the north. Increased easterly gradient flow will
result over the north half of lake huron, which will be enhanced by
cold air moving in from high pressure centered over hudson bay.

Easterly gales will be possible Monday afternoon through Monday
evening and a gale watch is now in effect for this time period. The
wind will weaken and then shift northwest as the low moves across
the lake Tuesday. Northwest wind trailing the system could approach
gales briefly Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Hydrology...

a large low pressure system will bring very mild air into the region
tonight through Monday. This will result in additional melting snow
followed by increasing coverage of rain showers Sunday and then
becoming widespread Monday. The snow will melt but the ground will
not thaw fast enough to prevent runoff from both the snow and
rainfall. This could result in ponding of water on roads and other
prone areas. Creeks and streams around the region could also become
elevated due to runoff. Total rainfall is expected to be around 1
inch between Sunday night and Monday night with most falling during
Monday.

Prev discussion...

issued at 327 pm est Sat jan 20 2018

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
lhz361>363.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Aa am
marine... ... .Bt
hydrology... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi51 min SSE 4.1 G 6 34°F 1015.2 hPa
KP58 20 mi40 min SSW 4.1 37°F 1015.1 hPa30°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 21 mi51 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 31°F 1015.2 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 31 mi43 min SSW 5.1 G 6 34°F 1014.3 hPa30°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 33 mi31 min SSW 13 G 15 34°F 1014.2 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi55 minSSW 510.00 miFair34°F30°F86%1015.2 hPa
Port Hope, MI20 mi40 minSSW 4 mi37°F30°F76%1015.1 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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W10W7W7W7W7W9W10W6W3SW3SW5SW3SW3S4SW4
1 day agoW9SW7SW9SW9SW8SW6SW7SW7SW7SW7SW9SW8SW9
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2 days agoSW19
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.