Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caseville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 8:02PM Thursday March 30, 2017 12:39 PM EDT (16:39 UTC) Moonrise 8:06AMMoonset 10:13PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 957 Am Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 5 pm edt this afternoon through late Friday night...
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Light snow and rain in the late morning and early afternoon...then rain and a chance of light snow late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..East winds 20 to 25 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Rain and a slight chance of freezing rain early in the evening...then rain in the late evening and overnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet building to 6 to 9 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Light rain likely early in the evening...then a chance of light rain and snow in the late evening and early morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201703302115;;314163 FZUS53 KDTX 301357 NSHDTX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 957 AM EDT THU MAR 30 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LHZ421-302115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI
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location: 44.03, -83.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 301601
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1201 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017

Update
Flood watch has been issued for the entire detroit metro area into
tomorrow. Good setup for heavy rainfall, as 850 mb dew pts of 10 c
come over the top of the sfc-925 mb cold/stable easterly layer. A few
thunderstorms already sneaked into lenawee earlier, and rainfall
totals closing in at 1 inch at detroit metro. Negative showalter
indices lifting further north, with embedded thunderstorms likely
this afternoon into early this evening as low level jet (in excess of
40 knots at 850 mb) tracks through with showalter index solidly
negative. Have noted day 1 marginal risk of severe storms just past
the southern michigan border, but cold easterly surface flow off lake
erie should mitigate wind threat. Thunderstorms will be capable of
producing a quick half an inch to one inch of rain in short period.

Elected to carry the flood watch into tomorrow as the system/upper
level low/trough over missouri moves into the ohio valley and becomes
negative tilted overnight, with deformation axis/good upper level
divergence potentially setting up directly over detroit metro area.

Localized rainfall totals in excess of 2 inches are a good
possibility over next 12-18 hours.

Prev discussion
Issued at 647 am edt Thu mar 30 2017
aviation...

prolonged intervals of moisture transport into an elevated frontal
boundary draped over SRN mi will support widespread rain today. The
more steady rainfall will occur generally north of ptk while things
will be more showery to the south. Wet bulb cooling will keep mbs on
the threshold of rain vs snow this morning. There is actually a
chance for a burst of heavy wet snow at mbs prior to enough warm air
spreading in to change things over to all rain. Ceilings will remain
vfr to start the morning but will steadily drop during the course of
the day as precipitation and moisture advection act to lower cloud
bases. Very low stratus and fog are then expected tonight as the main
surge of low level moisture lifts into SRN mi ahead of the actual
sfc low.

For dtw... In addition to lowering ceilings during the course of the
day, a strong easterly gradient will support gusts over 20 knots at
times through the rest of the morning and afternoon. Thunderstorms
will be possible throughout the day given the presence of weak
instability aloft. The most probable time period looks to be during
the evening (21z to 03z) when the greatest push of elevated
instability into NW ohio/far SE mi is expected.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings below 5000 ft after 14z.

* low in thunderstorms this morning and afternoon. Moderate this
evening.

* low in ceilings and/or visibilities below 200 ft/ one half mile
tonight and Friday morning.

Prev discussion...

issued at 347 am edt Thu mar 30 2017
discussion...

the storm system that will bring us wet weather the better part of
the next two days is still centered over missouri early this
morning. The longwave trough is quite deep, reaching down into the
gulf of mexico and the strong southerly flow in advance of it is
proving quite efficient with moisture transport as leading showers
associated with the warm front draped across the ohio valley.

Showers this morning are being generated by broad isentropic ascent
along the warm frontal slope. There has been a few enhanced bands
through the early morning hours, but a deep low level dry layer of
around 7kft is eating away at most precip before it can reach the
ground. All models agree, and have agreed for a few days now, that
widespread showers will affect the region Thursday and Friday as the
low slides east just south of the mi border. I will be hitting on a
few potential issues with the system vs regurgitating high pop/high
qpf forecasts once again.

Initial concern remains the snow potential across our northern
counties. This is not a slam dunk forecast by any means and
confidence is actually decreasing with this package, but potential
still exists. Model soundings start off cold (but with no moisture)
and quickly trend to a deep isothermal layer hovering right around
0c. Surface dewpoints remain in the upper 20s north of i69 whereas
temperatures look to be stuck in the mid 30s. So wet bulbing could
swing the isothermal profile to the snow production side.

Additionally, the earlier model runs were hinting at a narrow fgen
band lighting up over the area, but so far the initial band lit up
further south and a second band looks to be converging over northern
lower. Regardless, setup still suggest snow is possible before
turning to all rain and will stick with a forecast of "up to an
inch" of wet snow possible before the changeover.

Next issue will be potential for thunder. As the warm front draws
nearer this afternoon, some elevated instability and marginally
favorable mid level lapse rates will lift along the front possibly
resulting in a few thunderstorms. With the low tracking along the
warm front tonight just south of the area, will keep a mention of
thunder going til the low gets east of the area.

Deep plume of moisture and the 850mb jet will be pushed east of the
area by Friday but the upper low and trailing deformation region of
the surface low will remain over SE mi through much of Friday. The
low remains cutoff from the main flow thus slowly drudges east. How
fast the trailing showers will end will depend on how fast the
surface high in its wake can build into the area. In addition, mid
level ridge will begin building into the great lakes Saturday
morning.

The weekend will shape up to be fairly nice (dry) with temperatures
climbing each day from 50 Saturday to mid 50s Sunday. Active pattern
will continue into the new week though with a system sliding through
every couple days. Next system looks to slide through Sunday night
and Monday with another coming around Thursday.

Marine...

there will be a steady increase in easterly winds today into
tonight. This will be the result of the increase in gradient due to
the approach of sfc low pressure into the ohio valley with
persistent strong high pressure anchored over quebec. Lingering
shallow cold air will also support neutral to slightly unstable
conditions across lake huron. This easterly wind direction will
support hazardous conditions to small craft today through the day
Friday. The strongest winds will occur tonight across central and
northern lake huron. There remains high probability that wind gusts
will reach 30 knots, with a chance for a brief period of gale force
wind gusts (duration of which should remain less than three hours).

The winds will back toward the northeast tonight into Friday morning
before weakening later in the day Friday as the sfc low exits the
region to the east and weakens.

Hydrology...

low pressure over the mid mississippi valley today will transport
abundant moisture into a slow moving frontal boundary across
southern and central lower michigan. This will result in multiple
intervals of showers with a few thunderstorms also possible.

Portions of central lower mi and the thumb region will see snow
during the first half of the day before temperatures warm. The low
will drift across the northern ohio valley tonight before exiting
the region to the east late in the day Friday. This will sustain
intervals of showers into Fri evening.

Some of the precipitation will be moderate to heavy at times. Total
two day liquid rain totals are now expected to range from eight
tenths of an inch up to an inch and a half. This will certainly lead
to rises on area rivers. There is a potential for locally higher
amounts, especially within any thunderstorms. The slow moving nature
of the forcing on Friday also raises some concerns for some locally
higher totals. These factors do suggest a potential for some minor
flooding.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... Flood watch through Friday morning for miz068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 4 am edt Saturday
for lhz421-422-441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez444.

Update... ... .Sf
aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Sc
hydrology... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi59 min E 15 G 20 37°F 1018.6 hPa
KP58 20 mi48 min E 12 36°F 1019.4 hPa31°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 21 mi59 min ENE 13 G 17 36°F 1019 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 31 mi51 min ESE 11 G 13 36°F 1018.3 hPa31°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 33 mi39 min E 19 G 22 34°F 1016.3 hPa (-2.3)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bad Axe, Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi43 minE 8 G 142.50 miLight Snow34°F31°F93%1018.3 hPa
Port Hope, MI20 mi48 minE 12 mi36°F30°F82%1019.4 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8
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NE4NE8NE9E6E5E8E7SE7SE7
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1 day agoNE10
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NE11N8N12NE9NE9NE6NE4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmN7N8N7N10
2 days ago--W9W7W7NW7W3NW4NE4NE4NE5NE3NE5N5N5N5N5N7N8N6N7NE8
G14
NE7N9
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N12
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.