Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caseville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 5:07PM Sunday November 19, 2017 3:52 AM EST (08:52 UTC) Moonrise 8:21AMMoonset 6:15PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 326 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
.gale watch in effect from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon...
Today..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming west 20 to 25 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet late in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tonight..West winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy until late afternoon becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots in the late evening and overnight. Gusts to 35 knot gales. Mostly clear. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet. A gale warning may be needed. Gales will be possible beyond the forecast period. Please refer to the open lakes forecast for more information. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201711191600;;634983 FZUS53 KDTX 190826 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 326 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-191600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI
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location: 44.03, -83.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 190757
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
257 am est Sun nov 19 2017

Discussion
Sprinkles and flurries were moving across the forecast area early
this morning in the wake of the strong storm over the st. Lawrence
valley. As the colder air continues filter into the area, expect all
of these to change to flurries scattered snow showers. Today will
feature cyclonic flow in the wake of the storm with some help from
the lakes, diurnal response giving some boundary layer instability
with convective depths up to around 8000 feet and a shortwave moving
over the region. Therefore will keep the 30 to 40 pops in the
forecast for those snow showers today. Will also keep the high
temperatures closer to the mid 30s with plenty of clouds, raw model
output colder than guidance and the cooler trend in that guidance.

High pressure ridge folds over lower michigan this evening which
will not only end the cyclonic flow but also introduce some drier air
in the boundary layer. Expect some partial clearing tonight, but
there is a jet streak diving down into the lakes late tonight with
some modest jet support and 500 mb fgen and deformation. This will
support some mid and high clouds from about 09z to 15z.

After that skies will be mostly sunny for the bulk of the day on
Monday. Southwest gradient strengthens as the high moves east and
the next potent system heads toward the northern great lakes.

Subsidence inversion is very low which will keep us from mixing too
much wind, but will also keep the temperatures in check in the mid
to upper 40s.

The cold front moves through lower michigan on Tuesday. There is
decent dynamic support through a very good depth on Tuesday, but it
takes time for the response since the moisture is marginal. Will
have just chance pops for the eastern portions of the forecast area
Tuesday afternoon.

Seasonably cool high pressure builds into the region on Wednesday
and for thanksgiving. This high will keep it dry enough for a fair
amount of Sun on Wednesday and Thursday to offset the cooler regime.

Friday will be a transition day before the next system on Friday
night and Saturday which will bring our next chance of rain and or
snow.

Marine
Northwest gusts to gales over the open waters of lake huron will
diminish through the morning as high pressure works into the area.

A period of moderate to fresh westerlies will then take hold through
Monday followed by the the development of strong southwest flow
Monday night into Tuesday as low pressure tracks across northern
ontario. Gusts to low-end gales will be possible during this time
and a fresh gale watch is now in effect.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1146 pm est Sat nov 18 2017
aviation...

while winds have been slow to increase this evening, a push of low
level cold air overnight will support increasing mixing depths. This
will sustain northwest winds gusts in the 20-30 knot range. The
increasing depth of the cold air will lift inversion heights, which
in turn will result in steadily rising ceilings. With inversion
heights forecast to exceed 6k ft by late Sun morning, ceilings
should trendVFR by daybreak. Some lake effect showers may break off
into SE mi from northern lower. Expect the brevity of any snow
showers through daybreak will be enough to leave the mention out of
the terminals.

For dtw... There will be a slow backing of the winds from 320 310 deg
toward 280 290 deg through daybreak. Speeds will slowly drop during
the early morning. Thus the chances for crosswind thresholds to be
exceeded are looking low. There is a chance for some snow showers to
release off lake michigan and impact metro Sun afternoon. No
accumulations are expected.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs AOB 5kft tonight and Sunday.

* high for precip type being all snow Sunday.

* low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded Sunday morning.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for lhz361>363-462>464.

Gale warning until 10 am est this morning for lhz421-441>443.

Gale warning until 7 am est this morning for lhz422.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory until noon est today for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Gale warning until 10 am est this morning for lez444.

Discussion... Rbp
marine... ... .Jvc
aviation... ..Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi49 min NW 22 36°F 1003.7 hPa
KP58 20 mi61 min NW 22 G 34 38°F 1000.8 hPa30°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 21 mi72 min NW 11 G 17 36°F 1002 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 33 mi52 min NNW 21 G 32 37°F 1003 hPa (+3.3)
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 44 mi62 min NNW 25 G 33 38°F 45°F8 ft999.8 hPa (+3.5)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi57 minNW 15 G 2110.00 miOvercast35°F31°F85%1002 hPa
Port Hope, MI20 mi61 minNW 22 G 34 miBreezy38°F30°F73%1000.8 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S4S3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N5N7N11
G15
N8N13
G18
N12N13N15
G20
N17
G26
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G24
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G27
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S6S6S8
G16
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G17
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G19
S12S9S13
G20
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S10SW8S6S5
2 days agoW17
G23
W14
G21
W13
G21
W14
G22
W13
G24
NW14
G21
NW17
G24
NW16
G22
NW17
G22
N14
G20
NW13
G21
N12
G17
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G16
N8N7N12N10N7NW5W6NW4N3N3N3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.