Sunday, June24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caseville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 9:22PM Sunday June 24, 2018 1:21 AM EDT (05:21 UTC) Moonrise 5:02PMMoonset 2:45AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 1043 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A slight chance of light showers in the late evening and early morning...then light showers early in the morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Light showers until late afternoon... Then a slight chance of light showers late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening...then becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201806240915;;015722 FZUS53 KDTX 240243 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1043 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-240915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI
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location: 44.03, -83.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 240412
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1212 am edt Sun jun 24 2018

Aviation
The surface trough centered roughly over ptk at midnight weakly
separates predominantlyVFR to the south from a mix of MVFR and ifr
to the north. Open sky over SW lower michigan likely reaches the dtw
corridor before sunrise which should some light fog development
given the rainfall that occurred there last evening. Farther north,
ifr ceiling at mbs will be reinforced by northerly flow from the
northern great lakes and by increasing coverage of showers toward
sunrise and through the morning. These conditions will settle
southward with the associated cold front during the afternoon. Ifr
is less likely at dtw with the frontal passage late in the daytime
heating cycle.

For dtw... VFR mixed with MVFR ceiling and light fog are the only
concerns through sunrise. Increasing coverage of low clouds and
showers will then be possible as a cold front moves through the
region during the afternoon. Thunderstorm potential remains low.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* moderate for ceiling 5000 feet or less during the night becoming
high during the morning through afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms during afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 957 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
update...

a round of showers with generous coverage and heavy rainfall
developed during peak heating and are now diminishing and exiting
into canada. The activity was concentrated within the surface trough
lingering over the region roughly centered on the m-59 corridor.

Impressive was the coverage and intensity on radar from late
afternoon through mid evening with only a handful of lightning
strikes for the duration. Now, with the loss of daytime heating,
expect only an isolated shower until later in the night.

The next round of showers will also feature heavy rainfall potential
as the pattern expands over central lower michigan after midnight.

Development will be driven by the upper low over the midwest as it
moves through the southern great lakes. This system appears
respectable in strength judging by evening water vapor imagery and
plenty capable of dynamic interaction with the surface trough
lingering over southern lower michigan. The upper low will strongly
sharpen the low and mid level moisture axis and produce a strong
deformation pattern over central lower michigan, including the tri
cities and northern thumb. Measures of elevated instability, such as
850 mb li, are neutral to slightly unstable which makes thunderstorms
less of a concern once again. However, moisture remains deep judging
by model soundings saturated to the tropopause with 700 mb dewpoint
ranging in the single digits above zero. The strong deformation
forcing is expected to focus bands or cluster of showers in a west to
east fashion with a west to east motion for a few hours during
Sunday morning before the moisture axis deflates eastward. There
should still be at least scattered coverage of showers lasting well
into the afternoon as the pattern shifts eastward and the associated
cold front slides through the region. Categorical pops in the going
forecast look good with the evening update highlighting heavy
rainfall potential a little more, and in line with the wpc marginal
risk.

Prev discussion...

issued at 357 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
discussion...

convection within the convergent corridor along the periphery of the
surface circulation is waning as an open wave structure develops in
the lower troposphere in response to a more diffuse pattern of mid-
level forcing. Some level of activity will likely persist for the
next several hours within the remnant surface trough, particularly
as modest isentropic ascent increases ahead of the next upstream
wave presently lifting ene through illinois. Limited instability and
loss of heating will further limit intensity and coverage, but very
slow storm motion will still potentially produce locally heavy rain.

Strong nwp consensus on overall evolution tonight through Sunday as
the resident airmass remains in place for one more day. Diminished
moisture quality owing to developing dry northeast flow should be
more than offset by stronger forcing. Any remnant activity within
the aforementioned surface trough will tend to consolidate over the
thumb and possibly portions of northern lower as mid-level
deformation becomes increasingly well defined tonight through midday
Sunday. Substantial increase in pops warranted across the northern
counties for late tonight into Sunday. Incoming confluent flow in
the wake of this wave will then quickly usher the developing frontal
zone across the area during the afternoon, leading to a transient
shower threat worth an increase in pops to the high chc low likely
range. Steady onshore marine winds may also cause low end lakeshore
flood concerns INVOF essexville in bay county by Sunday aftn.

Building high pressure and 850mb temps around 11c may allow
temperatures to approach the upper 70s under full sun, but cirrus
peeling off a wave undercutting the ridge will be worth watching as
it may suppress temps a few degrees.

Upper-level troughing and an embedded PV anomaly will push from
southern minnesota into northern lower michigan and will bring
likely rain and thunderstorm chances to SE mi both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Increased southwesterly flow will continue to advect warm
and moist air ahead and during the passage of the PV anomaly, as
noted by 850 mb dew points ranging between 10 - 15c and pw values
averaging 1.60 inches.

The PV anomaly and upper-level trough will push east out of michigan
by 06 - 12z Thursday and will bring a period of dry conditions as a
surface high and upper-level ridge builds across the state. High
pressure centered across the eastern ohio valley will allow for
strong WAA to take place towards the end of the week as 850 mb
temperatures soar from 13c Thu 12z up to near 23c by Sat 00z. For
reference, record SPC climatological 850 mb temperatures reside
around 20 - 22 c. Daytime highs in the lower 90s are now reflected
in Friday and Saturday's forecast, however, a bump into the mid-90s
may be necessary over the next day if models continue to suggest 850
temperatures between 21 - 23 c in conjunction with minimal cloud
cover. Overall, confidence is very high in regards to above normal
temperatures by the end of the week.

Marine...

broad and weak low pressure will slowly exit the central great lakes
tonight into tomorrow. Light and variable winds this afternoon into
tonight will become light north northeasterly flow less than 20
knots in the wake of the departing low pressure on Sunday. Still
a chance for showers during the first part of Sunday before dry
weather returns Monday as high pressure returns to the great lakes
region. A warm front lifting through the area will lead to chance
for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, with increasing southeast
winds.

Hydrology...

showers will redevelop tonight, especially along and north of i-69,
continuing into early Sunday afternoon. Total rainfall amounts will
generally be a half an inch or less. Although locally higher amounts
will be possible, flooding is not expected. Drier air will work into
the region late Sunday and into Monday as high pressure builds
across michigan.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Bt
update... ... .Bt
discussion... Jvc am
marine... ... .Sf
hydrology... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi42 min E 2.9 G 5.1 62°F 1009.5 hPa
KP58 20 mi31 min Calm 60°F 1007.5 hPa59°F
45163 23 mi42 min E 5.8 G 5.8 64°F 67°F1 ft
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 31 mi52 min N 1.9 G 2.9 61°F 1007.8 hPa60°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 33 mi82 min ENE 9.9 G 11 64°F 1008.1 hPa (+1.0)
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 44 mi92 min E 3.9 G 3.9 55°F 49°F1008.3 hPa (+0.5)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi26 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist63°F61°F97%1008.8 hPa
Port Hope, MI20 mi31 minN 0 mi60°F59°F96%1007.5 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E5CalmE3E3E5E5SE6SE3CalmSE3CalmCalmE3CalmNE3NE6NE4NE5NE3E5NE4CalmCalm
1 day agoE4E3E3E3E3E5E4
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNE3NE8NE8E8NE7NE7NE10NE10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.