Thursday, June29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bartlett, NH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:06AMSunset 8:32PM Thursday June 29, 2017 12:04 PM EDT (16:04 UTC) Moonrise 11:26AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 1157 Am Edt Thu Jun 29 2017
Rest of today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers and tstms likely after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely. A chance of tstms. Patchy fog after midnight. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Sun night..SW winds up to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 1157 Am Edt Thu Jun 29 2017
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A warm front will approach from the southwest today and move over the waters tonight and Friday. Another low pressure system will approach from the west over the weekend. High pressure will build in at the end of the weekend through the start of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bartlett, NH
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location: 44.07, -71.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 291557
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
1157 am edt Thu jun 29 2017

Synopsis
A warm front will approach today and tonight bringing
increasing chances of rain during the afternoon hours and
especially overnight. Warm and moist weather Friday through the
weekend and low pressure nearby will allow for continued chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Drier weather will arrive early
next week.

Near term until 8 pm this evening
1155 am... Minor estf update to address current radar and
satellite trends in near term grids.

Prev disc...

925 am... For this estf update I adjusted near term grids to
reflect current satellite trend as well as the 13z mesonet.

Prev disc...

655 am update... Have updated the forecast mainly for minor
adjustments to pop and temperatures for the next few hours.

Plenty of Sun across central and eastern zones this morning, and
have adjusted sky cover down a bit for these locations for the
next few hours. Otherwise, looks like any rain showers hold off
for at least a couple more hours across western zones. When it
does rain, it should be light. The threat for heavy downpours
does not look to arrive until tonight (except perhaps on an
isolated basis this afternoon across central and northern
zones).

Previously...

a warm front will gradually sharpen up to our southwest today.

An early morning short wave trough grazing our northern zones
may bring a brief period of showers with isolated thunder to
somerset county prior to dawn. This short wave trough, as it
departs, will provide some upper level confluence will may allow
shower activity associated with developing warm front to delay
for most zones today. We do have increasing pops today, mainly
across western zones, but we think any precipitation will be
quite light during the daylight hours. In fact, there may be a
decent amount of Sun this morning. Went with a blend of models
for high temperatures today which resulted in highs well in the
70s. If a narrow band of light stratiform rain does develop
today in association with the warm front, then temps will lower
in that area.

Short term 8 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
Warm front lifts northward tonight. This will allow moisture and
elevated instability to flood northward above our CWA overnight.

As a short wave trough approaches from the west and low level
jet strengthens, showers and thunderstorms should develop,
especially across northern zones. The area of showers and storms
may take the form of a loosely organized MCS with the threat for
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Again, the main threat
would be across northern zones, but all areas will be in play
for some lightning and heavy downpours overnight.

The area will be warm sectored on Friday with very warm and
humid weather expected. Forcing for ascent should be pretty weak
for much of the day (after morning convection exits) and this
should allow for mainly dry weather save for a few pop up
thunderstorms in the afternoon. However, with moist and unstable
airmass in place, a better defined short wave moving through the
flow could allow for a more widespread afternoon convective
event. As of right now, that potential threat looks to be to our
west.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start off with a fairly wet start as
a series of showers and thunderstorms form over the region
before drying out for the start of next week.

Friday night will begin with an upper level trough upstream of
us over the great lakes. At the surface a weak surface low
remains over the eastern great lakes with the warm front
extended east west across maine. In addition to this boundary,
deep southerly flow around a strong bermuda high will push moist
tropical air northward. The juxtaposition of a surface boundary
and deep tropical moisture doesn't bode well for those seeking
dry conditions for the weekend. Saturday will see widespread
shower activity likely and with pwat nearing seasonal and yearly
highs very intense rainfall is possible in any storms that
form. Upper level flow remains relatively weak through the end
of the day Saturday when an upper level jet streak finally
rounds the trough axis. This weak flow means storms will be slow
to move presenting a flood risk especially in the flashier
mountain areas. The location of any boundaries as well as
rainfall received in the prior 48 hours will be key in
determining any flash flood risk for Saturday and due to these
uncertainties will not be issuing any flood watches at this
time. Temperatures will be quite warm on Saturday with again the
location of any existing warm frontal boundary playing a key
role. South of the boundary through southern nh and into
extreme SW maine skies will clear enough to allow temperatures
to climb into the 90s and with the moist airmass this will
result in a heat index in the low 90s. Have hedged upwards a bit
on the temps in the south as models are often slow to capture
this warm air.

As we move into Sunday a jet streak rounds the bottom of the
upper trough pushing the surface system and accompanying cold
front to our east Sunday morning. While some shower and
potential thunderstorm activity is likely along the cold front
the trend has been for an earlier timing and drier air mass
which will decrease pops for the afternoon.

High pressure finally begins to build into the area on Monday.

The mountains will be the only areas to see any sort of shower
potential as they remain in upslope northwesterly flow in the
wake of the front the day before.

Tuesday the 4th of july will also be dominated by high pressure
and mostly sunny skies across the forecast area. Highs will be
near 80 south to the 70s north. With high pressure expect a
seabreeze to develop along the coast. Clear skies, warm
temperatures, and light winds sounds like the making for a
perfect holiday but throw in the mid-50 degree water
temperatures of the ocean and the hypothermia risk to paddle
craft remains high.

The high pressure will remain into the middle of next week with
mostly sunny skies and temps in the 70s through Thursday.

Aviation 16z Thursday through Monday
Short term through Thursday night ... Areas of MVFR late this
afternoon and tonight in shra tsra with LCL ifr psbl. This
morning will beVFR outside of early morning valley fog. Mainly
vfr on Friday outside of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Long term...

Saturday will see showers and thunderstorms particularly in the
north... Here the clouds may drop to MVFR for the afternoon as
showers become more widespread. With the abundance of moisture
ifr fog is likely across the area both Friday night and Saturday
night before a drying trend moves in. By Sunday high pressure
comes in for the start of next week bringingVFR conditions and
a sea breeze to the coastal terminals.

Marine
Short term through Friday ... Marginal SCA conditions may
develop on the ocean waters tonight into Friday with southerly
flow strengthening. However, with the increasingly warm air
moving over the colder ocean it may be tough for winds to mix
down and generate seas as high as the wave models are showing.

Long term...

conditions remain marginal for a small craft with higher waves
through the day on Saturday on the outer waters before
decreasing as high pressure moves in on Sunday.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... None.

Es


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 62 mi47 min 70°F 54°F1018.4 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 64 mi65 min S 1 70°F 59°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 64 mi47 min W 6 G 9.9 71°F 53°F1018.9 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mount Washington, NH15 mi76 minW 300.06 miFog and Windy43°F42°F100%0 hPa
Fryeburg, Eastern Slopes Regional Airport, ME19 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair66°F59°F78%1018.7 hPa
Whitefield - Mount Washington Regional Airport, NH24 mi73 minWNW 410.00 miFair69°F57°F66%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from MWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW32W32
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1 day agoW17
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2 days agoW22
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G26

Tide / Current Tables for Fore River, Maine
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Fore River
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:51 AM EDT     10.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:12 AM EDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:33 PM EDT     9.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:37 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.56.18.51010.49.67.752.30.4-0.5-0.11.43.96.58.59.79.78.66.54.120.70.6

Tide / Current Tables for Biddeford, Saco River, Maine
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Biddeford
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:00 AM EDT     10.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:35 AM EDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:43 PM EDT     9.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:00 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.75.47.99.710.39.88.15.73.10.9-0.3-0.40.835.789.49.78.874.72.510.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.