Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cape Vincent, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 6:15PM Thursday October 19, 2017 11:16 PM EDT (03:16 UTC) Moonrise 6:02AMMoonset 5:38PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ065 Lake Ontario Open Waters From Hamlin Beach To The Saint Lawrence River- 1019 Pm Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Overnight..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely Monday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
LOZ065 Expires:201710200915;;115328 FZUS61 KBUF 200219 GLFLO Open Lake Forecast for Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1019 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Ontario Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A 30.4 inch high over the Mid Atlantic states will remain in place through Sunday. A cold front is then forecast to move into the eastern Great Lakes late Monday. LOZ063>065-200915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape Vincent, NY
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location: 44.09, -76.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 200220
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1020 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will remain anchored along the mid-atlantic coastline
through the upcoming weekend with dry weather and above normal
temperatures. The pattern will become more unsettled early next week
with a slow moving cold front bringing rain, followed by cooler
temperatures.

Near term through Friday
Some thin high cirrus will continue to drift across the area
overnight in northwest flow aloft as a weak upper level trough moves
into new england. A weak cold front which moved through the area
early this evening is moving off into new england.

Cooler air will build in behind the front with lows dropping into
the 40s, perhaps a few locales in upper 30s across the southern tier
and lewis county. Dry air and lingering graident flow will limit fog
development to only the deepest southern tier valleys late tonight.

Friday, another fair weather dry with high pressure remaining
dominant. Sunshine will offset weak cold air advection with
most high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
Friday night and Saturday a large and expansive area of high
pressure will remain over the east coast, with abundant sunshine
and above normal temperatures. Highs will be some 15- 20
degrees above normal Saturday as +12 to +14c 850 hpa
temperatures reach our region with the surface high slightly
displaced to the east. Dry ground and a light southerly wind
should push temperatures into the 70s, with an 80f reading not
out of the question somewhere across the lake plain genesee
valley... Which is typically our warmest area. Record highs may
be just out of reach, which include for this date: buffalo
81f 1894, rochester 80f 2007 and watertown 78f 1979.

Dewpoints will begin to slowly rise Friday night and into the
weekend... Such that valley fog at night will be possible through
southwest nys.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
Another fine day is on tap for Sunday as a seasonably strong 500mb
ridge over the east coast with surface high pressure over the
western atlantic will bring plenty of sunshine across western and
north central new york. A light southerly flow will help
temperatures run 15 to 20 degrees above normal with highs forecast
to climb into the low to mid 70s. Record highs for all three climate
sites should remain safe. Sunday night will remain mild with mainly
clear skies as high pressure will still be in control and dewpoints
run in the 50s. Expect lows to range from the low 50s well inland to
upper 50s near the lakes.

Differences in model timing of an approaching front remain for
Monday with the 1019 12z GFS continuing to shift the front over our
region during the day while the 1019 12z ec remains about 12 hours
slower holding the fronts arrival off until Monday night. Have held
onto 20 30 pops on Monday which favor the ec timing but still cover
for a possible earlier arrival with the gfs. Pops for wny then
increase to 60 70 for Monday night with high pressure still favoring
mainly dry weather across cny. With the slower arrival of the front,
temperatures will remain on the mild side Monday.

The wettest period looks to lock in on Tuesday as the frontal zone
stalls across our region and one or more waves of low pressure shift
north along the front. Have continued 60-70 pops for Tuesday as both
gfs ec models are in agreement with a surface low lifting north
across new york. The GFS shows a potentially moisture rich airmass
will move into place along the front with a connection to the gulf
of mexico which could push pwats above 1.5 inches or more. Wpc day 4-
5 QPF shows a swath of 1-1.5 inches of rain over southwestern new
york. Temperatures will run near normal (mid-upper 50s) Tuesday.

Chance pops are featured for Wednesday as the mid-level trough and
cold advection support showery weather in the wake of the front.

Below normal temps should be expected for Wednesday as 850mb temps
dip to or below zero 0 which would support temps likely struggling
to break above 50 in many locations and may support some lake
enhancement as well into Wednesday night. The coolest low temps
Wednesday night dip into the upper 30s which should still keep a
threat of any snow out of the forecast for now.

Thursday then looks to bring back some dry weather in both GFS and
ec models as western and north-central ny comes under the influence
of a narrow ridge separating a digging trough in the northern plains
and potential developing coastal storm just off the mid-atlantic
coast. Temps forecast near normal with partly sunny skies.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
High thin cirrus will continue to cross the area tonight. There may
be some patchy light fog in the river valleys of the western
southern tier with local ifr late tonight and early Friday, but this
will not impact kjhw.

Vfr will continue Friday with high pressure anchored along the mid
atlantic coast.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday...VFR except for local ifr in river valley
fog each late night and early morning.

Monday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers.

Tuesday... MVFR ifr with showers likely.

Marine
A tight pressure gradient will slowly relax overnight on the eastern
great lakes. Small craft advisory conditions will continue through
much of tonight on lake erie, and through early Friday morning on
the east half of lake ontario. Relatively light winds will then
return Friday through Saturday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Friday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Friday for
loz043>045.

Synopsis... Hitchcock tma
near term... Hitchcock tma
short term... Thomas
long term... Smith
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Hitchcock tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 23 mi77 min W 14 G 18 61°F 62°F4 ft1017.2 hPa (+2.1)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 45 mi47 min W 12 G 18 61°F 1017.7 hPa
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 45 mi47 min 62°F1015.9 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 49 mi87 min WNW 19 G 21 62°F 60°F4 ft1017.1 hPa (+1.9)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 74 mi77 min W 9.9 G 14 61°F 1019.3 hPa (+1.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 74 mi47 min 58°F 1018.8 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY38 mi21 minW 710.00 miFair56°F41°F57%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S5S5S4S5S54S5S6S6S11
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SW8SW7S5S6S5S5S5S5S4S5SW5S8SW8SW9SW9SW10SW6W5CalmSE3S33S4
2 days agoCalmSE3CalmCalmE3SE3S43S4S5S7S9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.