Monday, December11, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cape Vincent, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 4:28PM Monday December 11, 2017 12:49 AM EST (05:49 UTC) Moonrise 12:42AMMoonset 1:19PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ065 Lake Ontario Open Waters From Hamlin Beach To The Saint Lawrence River- 1237 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2017
This afternoon..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west. Lake effect snow early, then scattered lake effect snow showers late. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Lake effect snow showers likely early, then lake effect snow. Lake effect snow showers likely late. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest and diminishing to less than 10 knots in the afternoon. Scattered snow showers in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
LOZ065 Expires:201712102215;;689139 FZUS61 KBUF 101737 GLFLO Open Lake Forecast for Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1237 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Ontario Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A 29.6 inch low will move from the Upper Great Lakes will pass by to the north of the lake today...with a cold front dropping across the lake tonight. A weak ridge of high pressure averaging 30.0 inches will move across the lake Monday. Another 29.6 inch low will drop across the lower Great Lakes Tuesday. 30.1 inch high pressure will build briefly across the lower lakes Wednesday night and Thursday. LOZ063>065-102215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape Vincent, NY
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location: 44.09, -76.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 110323
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1023 pm est Sun dec 10 2017

Synopsis
Lake effect snow will continue east of lakes erie and ontario this
evening and tonight with locally heavy snowfall. The lake effect
snow will quickly end Monday morning as high pressure briefly builds
into the eastern great lakes. Low pressure will then cross the
region Monday night through Wednesday with periods of widespread
accumulating snow. Several additional weak systems will cross the
area late in the week with additional chances of snow.

Near term through Monday
Impressive lake effect snow bands continue northeast of both lakes
erie and lake ontario late this evening. Localized snowfall rates up
to 3 inches per hour have been reported at times in both bands.

These lake effect plumes continue to be enhanced on the west-
southwesterly flow ahead of an arctic cold front and associated upper-
level trough over southern ontario. As of 10pm, the arctic boundary
could be seen on radar and surface observations nearing the northern
lake ontario shoreline. Between 11pm and 1am, expect to see both
bands get enhanced further as they interact with the frontal
boundary. However, the abrupt wind shift to the northwest behind the
front will disrupt the bands of lake effect snow. The lake ontario
band will get fully picked up and shoved south off the lake,
bringing a brief snow squall to locations south of lake ontario, from
rochester to syracuse. Some lingering lake effect will last
southeast of lake ontario behind the front through Monday morning.

For lake erie, the band will be pushed south in the western southern
tier, turning into some upslope enhancement along the chautauqua
ridge.

By daybreak Monday any remaining lake effect snow will be in a much
weakened state to the southeast of the lakes, as shear rapidly
increases and inversion heights lower with weak high pressure
building over the eastern great lakes. Any remaining impacts should
be fairly minor for the Monday morning drive.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday night
There is high confidence for a widespread general snowfall Monday
night into Tuesday as a clipper low tracks across the eastern great
lakes into northern ny. Plentiful synoptic moisture and lift will be
forced by an anomalous 2-3 sd below normal, near 500dm, mid-level
trough digging south across the great lakes. Additional support for
widespread snow will come from warm advection near 850mb. A blend of
12z QPF guidance with slr between 15:1 and 20:1 in a cooling airmass
will bring a general 2-3 inches Monday night. As the surface low
begins to center to the east of lake ontario Tuesday afternoon,
winds will veer to west then northwest while becoming gusty in
steeping low level lapse rates as cold advection sets in. Additional
synoptic snow is expected areawide through Tuesday in wrap around
moisture where another 2-3 inches will be possible. A winter weather
advisory may be needed especially if snow rates totals come in
higher with later guidance. Temperatures Monday night will dip into
the teens and low 20s with highs into the mid 20s to around 30
Tuesday. Gusty winds in the wake of the systems cold front should
run 20-30 mph especially south of the low center across the western
southern tier driving wind chills into the teens.

Later Tuesday into Wednesday we will see a transition into another
potentially significant lake effect snow event with headlines
possible. Lake effect snows are expected to develop south or
southeast of the lakes as 850mb temps cool aloft. Bufkit cross
sections indicate healthy lake plumes with equilibrium heights
running 10-15kft and sufficient synoptic moisture and lift
intersecting the dendritic snow growth zone. Tuesday night into
Wednesday will perhaps be the most significant time period of
accumulating lake snows with equilibrium level peaking. With current
lake effect headlines in effect and the best period for the next
event still 3 days out we will continue with the mention in the
hazardous weather outlook. The core of the anomalously deep 500mb
low will pass over our region Tuesday night and Wednesday which will
bring the coldest air yet this month with lows dipping into the
single digits to teens Tuesday night and only peaking in the teens
to maybe 20 on Wednesday. Lake effect then continues to look like it
will begin to weaken later Wednesday night as high pressure over the
ohio valley is forecast to nose north into western ny.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
Medium range guidance continues to indicate two more clipper lows
working across the great lakes later this week and next weekend. A
fair amount of uncertainty remains regarding the timing and
tracking of either of these clipper lows as well as any potenial
lake enhancement. Have continued broadbrush chance pops for snow
showers through Saturday until more certain details arise in newer
guidance. Temperatures will remain below average through the end of
the week, as the region will remain embedded within longwave
troughiness. The eastern trough may break down over the weekend
which would potentially allow warmer air to return to our region.

Blend of model temperature guidance indicates temps may rise back to
normal by Saturday and possibly above normal for Sunday. If this
occurs rain snow would be possible Sunday. Longer range guidance
suggests that this break from the cold may only be temporary, as a
longwave trough becomes re-established over the east in the week
following.

Aviation 04z Monday through Friday
Bands of heavy lake effect snow will continue east of both lakes
through tonight with local very low ifr within the bands. Outside of
lake effect areas expect a few light snow showers with local MVFR
cigs vsby.

Off lake erie, a band of very heavy snow will remain south of kbuf
this evening. Late this evening the band will move south and away
from kbuf, with ifr developing at kjhw and the rest of the western
southern tier overnight. The snow will rapidly weaken by Friday
morning.

Off lake ontario, a band of very heavy snow just south of kart will
may clip kart kgtb with ifr conditions at times. Overnight the band
will move back south across the tug hill region, and end up at the
southeast corner of the lake in a much weakened state by early
Friday morning.

Outlook...

Monday... Lake effect snow showers with local ifr southeast of the
lakes early, then improvement toVFR.

Monday night through Wednesday... Areas of ifr with periods of snow.

Thursday and Friday... Areas of MVFR ifr with snow showers likely.

Marine
Moderate westerlies will continue across the eastern great lakes
through tonight with small craft conditions on both lakes. High
pressure will then bring a brief period of lighter winds on Monday.

Low pressure will pass directly overhead late Monday night and
Tuesday morning. Winds will increase in the wake of this system
later Tuesday through Wednesday, with another period of solid small
craft advisory conditions expected.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lake effect snow warning until 7 am est Monday for nyz006>008-
012-019-020-085.

Lake effect snow warning until 1 am est Monday for nyz010-011.

Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Monday for nyz003-013.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Monday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Monday for
loz043-044.

Small craft advisory until 7 am est Monday for loz042-045.

Synopsis... Church hitchcock
near term... Church hitchcock
short term... Smith
long term... Smith
aviation... Church hitchcock
marine... Church hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 45 mi50 min 43°F1010.1 hPa (+0.8)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 45 mi50 min SSW 12 G 21 30°F 1011.5 hPa (+0.3)22°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 74 mi50 min SW 11 G 16 29°F 1013.2 hPa (+0.3)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 74 mi50 min 29°F 1012.3 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY38 mi54 minW 9 G 171.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist30°F26°F85%1011 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6S3CalmCalmCalmCalmW12W15
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1 day agoS6S6S6S5S4S64S8S6S5S7S4CalmCalmCalmNE6E4E4E4CalmSE3CalmSE3SW4
2 days agoW16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.