Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cape Vincent, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:55PM Saturday June 24, 2017 6:14 AM EDT (10:14 UTC) Moonrise 5:09AMMoonset 8:24PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ065 Lake Ontario Open Waters From Hamlin Beach To The Saint Lawrence River- 449 Am Edt Sat Jun 24 2017
Today..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. A chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ065 Expires:201706241530;;736554 FZUS61 KBUF 240849 GLFLO Open Lake Forecast for Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo NY 449 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Ontario Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS... A 29.3 inch low will move across northern Quebec today. This low will then stall over Labrador through Sunday. Meanwhile a secondary 29.8 inch low will develop near Georgian Bay tonight, moving to the Ottawa valley Sunday night and to Atlantic Canada Monday. Meanwhile a 30.2 inch high will build from the Mississippi Valley today to the Ohio valley Sunday, where it will remain into Tuesday. This high will eventually build across the lower Great Lakes by Wednesday. LOZ063>065-241530-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape Vincent, NY
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location: 44.09, -76.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 240923
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
523 am edt Sat jun 24 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the forecast area this morning, with showers
tapering off from west to east. Temperatures will run cooler than
average this weekend, as upper level troughing moves across the
region. The cooler temperatures will be accompanied by showers at
times, particularly on Sunday and Monday, as a series of upper level
disturbances moving through the trough cross the area. The trough
will move east by Wednesday, with warmer temperatures expected by
mid-week.

Near term through tonight
A cold frontal boundary continues to advance east across the
forecast area this morning, and the bulk of western new york has
finally dried out behind the front, though a final line of
showers continues to track east across the finger lakes and
portions of the north country. These showers will taper off from
west to east over the next several hours, with clearing skies
from the west as post-frontal subsidence takes over.

Increasing sunshine this morning will give way to increasing clouds
this afternoon, as upper level troughing moves into the area.

Cooling temperatures aloft, along with diurnal heating will allow
for the development of widespread CU during the afternoon, with a
few showers and isolated thunderstorms possible along the lake
breeze boundary south of lake ontario as well as the boston hills.

With cooler air advecting into the region, temperatures this
afternoon will top out in the low to mid 70s across most locales,
with a few spots in the typically warmer genesee valley climbing
into the upper 70s.

Any convective activity will come to an end during the evening
hours, with the loss of diurnal heating, leaving quiet and cool
night across the area. The cooler temperatures aloft, combined with
diminished cloud cover will translate to cooler readings than we have
seen at night of late, with lows dipping into the upper 50s along
the lake plains, with mid 50s across the higher elevations inland.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
On Sunday, a broad mid-level longwave trough will extend from the
northern plains across the great lakes and into the northeast
region. 00z GFS ec models show a sharp mid level shortwave and
embedded vigorous vorticity MAX shifting through the base of the
longwave trough and crossing western and central ny during the day.

Synoptic scale lift from this shortwave and low-level forcing from a
surface trough and 30+ kt low level jet will contribute to scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. The most widespread
coverage will be during the afternoon corresponding to peak heating
and closer to the passage of the surface trough. Gusty southwest
winds 25-30kts downwind of the lakes should provide a lake shadow to
keep shower storm coverage mainly inland. Temperatures will top out
a few degrees below normal due to the influence of the longwave
trough and associated pool of cool air aloft. Highs are forecast to
top out within a few degrees of 70. Dewpoints only around 50 will
yield very comfortable humidity levels.

In the wake of the surface trough Sunday night, 850mb temps become
cool enough to bring a potenial for some rare summertime lake
effect enhancement east of the lakes. 850mb temps bottoming out
around +6c with lake temps +21c should support at least lake effect
clouds and even the risk for a chance of showers. Overnight lows
will again dip into the low-mid 50s and even upper 40s in the cooler
interior western southern tier and tug hill.

On Monday, another strong vort MAX and associated shortwave trough
is forecast to shift across the central toward the eastern great
lakes. Synoptic scale lift ahead of this looks to contribute to
another round of mainly diurnal influenced instability showers with
isolated thunderstorms. Taller shower storm cells in this cool
environment may bring some small hail with a sub-10kft wbz height.

Tough to say if lake shadows will again set up with weaker winds
aloft so have placed highest pops into the likely range closer to
gfs moisture axis ahead of the shortwave mainly from the finger
lakes south and west. A lingering pool of cool air aloft will hold
temperatures below normal with highs forecast mainly in the mid to
upper 60s. Have left a chance for showers lingering through Monday
night as the vort MAX will shift overhead during the overnight
hours. Lower dewpoint air in place will help overnight temps to slip
back into the 50s with upper 40s possible in the interior western
southern tier and tug hill.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Latest runs of the medium range guidance indicate that the axis of
the longwave trough and associated vort MAX will be in the process
of shifting east of the forecast area on Tuesday. The cool air aloft
within the trough (again 850mb t around 6c) will support mainly a
diurnal threat for showers and possibly some thunderstorms. Similar
to Monday, taller shower storm cells in this cool environment may
bring some small hail with a sub-10kft wbz height. Again with
lingering cool air aloft, high temps will top out again in the 60s.

Surface high pressure centered over the southern appalachians will
ridge north across the region Tuesday night and Wednesday allowing
for dry weather with mainly clear to partly cloudy skies. Temps will
still run a degree or two below normal.

Thursday and Friday, the high is forecast to shift off the mid-
atlantic coast with southerly winds bringing a return of increasing
moisture and warmth across western and central ny. Highs look to
push back above normal with readings in the upper 70s to low 80s. A
cool front looks to be the main focus for shower and thunderstorm
activity as both the GFS and ec models indicate it may become
stalled stationary somewhere over the forecast area.

Aviation 10z Saturday through Wednesday
A final round of showers associated with a cold frontal boundary are
moving across the finger lakes early this morning. Brief
periods of MVFR will accompany the showers, with improving
conditions toVFR to the west of the front. Moisture pooling
ahead of the front continues to generate ifr lifr conditions
across the north country. Expect these conditions to last a few
more hours before the front moves through, once again with
improving conditions behind the front.

While the entire forecast area can expect improvement toVFR on
Saturday, upper level troughing settling across the area will allow
for the development of isolated scattered -shra, with a few -tsra
also possible, with convection focusing on lake breeze boundaries,
and largely sparing kbuf kart.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday... MainlyVFR with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms... Mainly in the afternoons.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR.

Thursday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Westerly flow developing in the wake of a cold front crossing the
area will generate a moderate chop across the eastern ends of the
lakes, with waves building to 3 feet by this afternoon. Waves will
rise higher on Sunday, particularly on the eastern half of lake
erie, as winds strengthen further as a strong upper level
disturbance moves through, and small craft advisories will likely be
needed on both lakes for Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. After a
brief respite Monday morning, another passing upper level
disturbance will likely bring another period of small craft advisory
conditions to lake erie Monday night.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Wood
near term... Wood
short term... Smith
long term... Smith
aviation... Wood
marine... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 23 mi75 min W 7.8 G 9.7 63°F 62°F1 ft1001.5 hPa (+0.7)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 45 mi45 min W 13 G 14 66°F 1002.2 hPa63°F
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 45 mi45 min 65°F1000.8 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 49 mi85 min W 9.7 G 12 64°F 63°F1 ft1001.7 hPa (+0.4)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 74 mi75 min W 7 G 9.9 67°F 1003.7 hPa (+0.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 74 mi45 min 65°F 1003.5 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY38 mi79 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast66°F66°F100%1000.5 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4CalmSW4S6SW4NW4E5CalmSW6SW5SW8SW6W4W4CalmSW3W6SW8SW5SW5W5W7SW5SW3
1 day agoS5SW7SW8W8W10W8W5W6W6W8SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S6SW5
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.