Saturday, January19, 2019 L-36.com


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Marine Weather and Tides
Rockland, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:32PM Saturday January 19, 2019 9:23 PM EST (02:23 UTC) Moonrise 3:55PMMoonset 6:28AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 651 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
.gale warning in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday evening...
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 15 to 25 kt with a few gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Snow. Light freezing spray.
Sun..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Snow in the morning, then sleet in the afternoon. Light freezing spray.
Sun night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of sleet in the evening. A chance of snow. Light freezing spray.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow in the morning. Moderate freezing spray.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Moderate freezing spray.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Moderate freezing spray.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain and snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain and snow showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain and snow showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of snow and rain showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ100 651 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Low pressure will will track near the new england coastline through Sunday, bringing gale force winds to the waters. Arctic air will move in to start the week. High pressure then builds in Tuesday and Wednesday. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rockland city, ME
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location: 44.1, -69.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 192346
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
646 pm est Sat jan 19 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will move northeast through the gulf of maine on
Sunday and into the maritimes Sunday night. A strong cold
northwest flow will persist over the region Sunday night through
Monday night as high pressure gradually builds in from the
west. High pressure will crest over the region on Tuesday.

A series of weak lows will affect our weather Wednesday and
Thursday, producing mixed precipitation.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
645 pm update... No major changes to the forecast at this time.

Just a few minor adjustments to pops at this time based on
observational data. Light snow is falling at many locations and
will continue this evening before picking up in intensity after
mainly after midnight. Will peruse additional incoming
mesoscale model information through the evening hours are
perhaps incorporate some mesoscale enhancements to QPF and
wintry precip.

Previously...

low pressure currently over memphis, will continue to deepen and
move northeast with pressure falls directing it across central
tennessee and up the ohio river valley. Ahead of the low cloud
cover extends into northern new england. While radar is starting
to show light returns through western new hampshire, surface
observations confirm nothing is reaching the ground until new
york.

Across our region, very cold air is in place with portions of
northern maine and vermont remaining below zero throughout the day
today. This existing cold air will help to drive precip types as the
storm moves in.

Expect the widespread precipitation to enter the region. The initial
precipitation will reach SW nh around 00z and rapidly fill in to the
north and east. Precipitation will continue throughout the day on
Sunday. The heaviest precip will be associated with a region of very
strong midlevel frontogenesis that will move through in the
early morning hours. This may generate snowfall rates of up to
2" hr through the morning.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
Major winter storm will impact the region tonight into
Monday...

ptype remains a concern for the coastal portions of our area
with this system. Much of the 12z guidance has pulled the low
track slightly further west allowing warmer air to intrude
aloft. With our existing cold air at the surface this has
resulted in an increasing threat for both sleet and freezing
rain. Have remained quite conservative in allowing any warm air
to enter aloft for two reasons. First of all, the high pressure
in place over quebec currently is quite potent, as evidenced by
the extremely cold temperatures through the day today and this
may help to shift the surface pressure falls slightly
eastwards. Secondly while the main surface low is well
developed, it is a short wave within the northern stream which
is going to determine how far the warm air is able to intrude.

This disturbance is just currently entering northern
saskatchewan and still has some time to evolve over the great
lakes before finally kicking our storm east... Or not. This
northern stream interaction and the warm air intrusion will not
take place until mid day tomorrow and thus while we are less
than 12 hours away from snowfall we are still a good 24 hours
out from any warm air and thus have kept the forecast as just a
slightly warmer trend from prior packages.

Snow ice amounts: the result of the slightly warmer trend discussed
above is slightly reduced snow totals across southern new
hampshire and coastal maine. The heaviest snow will occur before
the warm air arrives and thus the entire region is still
expected to remain well within the winter storm warning criteria
and no headlines changes have been made. The addition of some
light freezing rain accumulations along the coast will decrease
snow totals. The only region where the threat of ice
accumulations significant enough to impact power lines and trees
is along penobscot bay and in the offshore portions of knox
county.

Winds: winds will remain gusty along the coast as the low moves
through the gulf of maine with 30-35 mph expected. This will result
in near-blizzard conditions for a time period in the early morning.

Further inland winds will generally be less but again higher gusts
are possible in the more elevated terrain.

Behind the storm on Sunday night another push of arctic air
will enter the region. Low temperatures will drop to the single
digits below zero overnight Sunday into Monday as wind chills
drop to near 30 below. Have opted to wrap this cold into the
existing wsw which will run until Monday morning in the
mountains.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
500 mb pattern continues to remain progressive through the long
range, despite broad troughing developing across SRN canada and
the central conus, as smaller waves move through the larger
scale trough and prevent from settling in place. Several bouts
of cold air are expected, but it will get milder between these
air masses.

Monday will quite cold with gusty winds, which will produce
blowing snow and daytime wind chills range from zero to -20,
with NW winds gusting to around 25 mph at times. Actual max
temps will be limited 10-15 along the coast and in SRN nh, and
in the zero to +5 range in the mtns. The gusty winds will also
lead to areas of blowing snow through the day into Mon evening.

Will still see lots of clouds on Mon as a weak wave move around
the west of the low over the maritimes. Winds diminish some mon
night, but still should persists at close to 10 mph after
midnight, with wind chills dropping into the -10 to -30 range s
to n.

Tuesday will see more Sun and lighter winds with highs warming
into the teens in the mtns to the mid 20s in the south.

Next chc of precip will be wed-thu, as models once against
struggle with phasing systems, so p-type is questionable at this
point, as well as precip timing. Euro phases systems better to
our west allow deeper trough and bringing warmer air to flood
into the cwa, while the GFS does not phase, and it only warms a
little. Leaned toward the euro for now, but hardly a high
confidence forecast. The trend is for another cold shot for
Friday or next weekend.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Short term... Conditions will rapidly deteriorate tonight to lifr as
heavy snow moves into the area. Expect AWW to be needed for mht as
snowfall rates over an inch an hour impact the region. Some mixing
of sleet and zr is possible for psm pwm and rkd during the day on
Sunday. Additionally those coastal terminals will also see winds
gusting to 30-35mph.

Long term... VariableVFR-MVFR cigs, except the mtns which look
to hold at MVFR, with maybe ifr. Vis reductions of 2-3sm
possible at some areas during to blowing snow Mon and mon
evening.VFR returns late Mon night into Tue night, with some
flight restrictions possible on Wed as some rain or snow moves
into the area.

Marine
Short term... Gale warning remains in effect as low pressure intensifies
and moves into the gulf of maine. Expect seas to build to 10-15ft on
the outer waters by Sunday. Additionally cold air advection
will move in Sunday night into Monday keeping nwly winds at
least at SCA for the start of the week. The arctic air will
also result in widespread freezing spray and a freezing spray
advisory will likely be needed.

Long term... Gales likely hold through Monday night. Moderate
freezing expected Monday into Monday night as well, as very cold
air moves across the waters.

Tides coastal flooding
With a strong storm moving through the gulf of maine on Sunday,
northeasterly winds will increase and nearshore waves will
build to around 10 ft. In combination with high astronomical
tides Sunday morning, expecting areas of minor to moderate
flooding to occur during that period.

The highest threat is along the new hampshire and southwestern
maine coastline where the winds will be most onshore and highest
surge values up to 1.5 ft are expected. Upgraded to a coastal
flood warning for these areas. For all other areas north up
through the midcoast, the surge is expected to be lower, closer
to 1 ft or less. With these areas more protected from the wind
and waves, have opted to issue a coastal flood advisory for
these remaining coastal zones.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Winter storm warning until 1 am est Monday for mez012>014-
018>028.

Winter storm warning until 7 am est Monday for mez007>009.

Coastal flood advisory from 8 am to 1 pm est Sunday for
mez025>028.

Coastal flood warning from 8 am to 1 pm est Sunday for mez023-
024.

Nh... Winter storm warning until 1 am est Monday for nhz003>015.

Winter storm warning until 7 am est Monday for nhz001-002.

Coastal flood warning from 8 am to 1 pm est Sunday for nhz014.

Marine... Gale warning from 7 am to 7 pm est Sunday for anz151-153.

Gale warning from 4 am Sunday to 1 am est Monday for anz150-
152-154.

Near term... Curtis ekster
short term... Curtis
long term... Cempa
aviation... Cempa curtis
marine... Cempa curtis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 6 mi79 min ENE 16 G 21 18°F 38°F2 ft1026.4 hPa
MISM1 - Matinicus Rock, ME 25 mi83 min ENE 20 G 23 22°F 1025.5 hPa (-2.1)
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 30 mi79 min NE 18 G 23 23°F 41°F3 ft1025.2 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rockland, Knox County Regional Airport, ME2 mi27 minNE 9 G 165.00 miLight Snow15°F9°F77%1027.6 hPa

Wind History from RKD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW55CalmNW65
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Tide / Current Tables for Rockland, Penobscot River, Maine
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Rockland
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Sat -- 02:28 AM EST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:27 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:42 AM EST     11.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:14 PM EST     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:27 PM EST     10.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.91.80.70.71.94.16.99.611.111.410.58.45.32.30.2-0.8-0.51.13.76.68.9109.98.7

Tide / Current Tables for Camden, Penobscot River, Maine
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Camden
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:26 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:27 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:40 AM EST     11.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:12 PM EST     -0.99 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:23 PM EST     9.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.71.60.40.51.84.16.89.310.811107.95.12.2-0-1-0.61.13.66.48.59.69.58.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.