Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gardiner, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 4:09PM Monday November 19, 2018 11:24 AM EST (16:24 UTC) Moonrise 3:42PMMoonset 3:18AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 1115 Am Est Mon Nov 19 2018
This afternoon..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw. Seas 1 foot or less. Rain or snow likely early, then a chance of rain.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight. A chance of rain and snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Snow, rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight. A chance of snow showers in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. A chance of snow or rain showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of snow showers.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ100 1115 Am Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A weak low will pass just south and east of the waters today. A stronger low will take roughly the same track on Tuesday. An arctic front will cross the waters Wednesday night, followed by a gusty northwest flow on Thursday and Friday. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gardiner, ME
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location: 44.17, -69.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 191620
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
1120 am est Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis
A weak area of low pressure will track across southern new
england and the gulf of maine today. This disturbance will
produce a light snowfall from southern new hampshire across the
coastal plain of maine early today. Another low will pass south
of the region Tuesday and produce a widespread snowfall of several
inches. An arctic front will cross the region Wednesday,
followed by high pressure building into the region through the
end of the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
1100 am update...

rain currently on the way out of southeast new hampshire and
will be pushing off the maine coast by early this afternoon
leaving in its wake a few areas of light drizzle. Have adjusted
pops and wx based on latest radar trends and tweak area temps
and tds. No other changes planned attm.

900 am update...

quick update to drop expired winter weather advisory headlines
for southern new hampshire. Temperatures have edged above
freezing in southern new hampshire and precipitation has changed
to rain. Expect this precipitation to gradually push out of
southern new hampshire over the next several hours and snow or
mixed rain and snow will come to an end in coastal maine around
noon. Have updated pops and wx grids based on current radar and
surface obs. Aside from a few temp TD tweaks... No major changes
planned to current forecast.

Prev disc...

645 am... Have issued a wsw for fzra across the SRN tier zones
of nh, as fzra being noted at ash mht and across the border in
nrn ma. Some warm air working above the sfc, and may go back and
forth between sn fzra for the next couple hours, but given this
happening during the morning commute, figure its good to get the
word out since it was not in the forecast last night. Should see
temps rise above freezing here by 9-10 am, and will likely see
whatever light precip is left change over to just rain shortly
after that time. Otherwise forecast in decent shape, although
an inch may be high in some spots, and for the most part not
snowing hard enough to accumulate on roads much.

Previously... Weak sfc low tries to form as it passes over the
gulf me today. Dynamic forcing is quite weak, however there is
enough is a decent baroclinic zone in the mid levels, and even
weak upward motion will take advantage of this to produce some
light precip. Initially this is falling as snow, but boundary
lyr should warm quickly this morning in southerly flow and allow
sfc temps to rise well into the 30s in SRN nh and the me
coastal plain, where most of the precip will occur. So, by the
time the precip winds down, midday to early afternoon, will
probably end as rain in a lot of places. Up to an inch is
possible in these areas, with little more than a few shsn in the
mtns and foothills.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
More impressive system arrives late tonight and follows a
similar track although slightly south of the one crossing today.

This system does have better forcing with 500 mb trough
deepening to our west. For tonight, temps will fall this evening
as that first low moves east, will see some colder air
filtering behind it, with lows running from the low to mid 20s
in the N to the upper 20 to around 30 in the south, and in many
spots will likely hit these lows around midnight, or due to wet
bulb when the snow starts. Thinking snow will begin to move
into far SRN nh either late this evening, and then it's way ne
reaching across most of nh and western me by daybreak or shortly
there after. So you can expect some snow during the Tue morning
commute.

Models are in fair agreement that we will see good
frontogenetical forcing in the mid lvl baroclinic zone, with
possible banding occuring. Models suggest this band will be in
srn nh and perhaps across the me coastal plain. This will
likely be where the highest snow amts will be. The current
thinking is 2-4" in this area, but if a decent band sets up
could be a little higher. A general 1-3" is expected in the
north as more broad forcing exits over this area. The other
issue is the potential for some rain along the immediate coast
in me, and seacoast nh, including the mht ash area, especially
in the morning. This may keep amts down abit in these areas, but
should still see a few inches regardless. The precip will end
from sw-ne during the mid-late afternoon. Highs will be in the
30-35 range in most spots, but the me may mtns may only see
highs in the upper 20s.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
The deterministic model solutions are in good agreement on the
long wave pattern into the upcoming weekend. We begin the period
with a western ridge and eastern trough across the conus.

Fortunately the pattern is progressive... With the upper trough
lifting out by the end of the work week with rising heights and
ridging to follow post-holiday and into the upcoming weekend.

The upper trough will keep us locked into below normal
temperatures through the holiday before ridging and rising
heights allows the mercury to recover to near normal values by
next weekend. In the dailies... A potent shortwave and associated
surface low over the gulf of maine Tuesday evening are exiting
into the maritimes with gusty winds and upslope clouds and snow
showers in its wake. The next shortwave dives southeast across
the great lakes on Wednesday with an associated surface low and
trailing arctic cold front. This system will generate a few snow
showers and mountain snow squalls with its passage late
Wednesday and Wednesday night. It'll be blustery and much colder
behind this system on Thursday with air temperatures running
twenty degrees below average. Wind chills will be subzero across
the mountains and in the single numbers elsewhere. Winds drop
off Thursday night under the building high as the gradient
relaxes. Lows should be sub zero across the mountains and only
in the single numbers above zero across the remainder of the
region. High pressure and somewhat warmer air returns for Friday
with the fair weather and a warming trend continuing through
the first half of the weekend. By late Sunday... Model solutions
diverge considerably but still hint that the next disturbance
will be on our doorstep.

Aviation 16z Monday through Friday
Short term through Tuesday ... For the most part MVFR CIGS vis
are expected with precip thru this morning, although cannot
rule out some shorter periods of ifr at times. Will see a brief
improvement toVFR this afternoon into the evening, before
conds deteriorate as sn breaks out late evening and the
overnight, with ifr expected toward daybreak and thru the day on
Tuesday.

Long term...

wed... Sct MVFR in mtn -shsn... Wth brief LCL ifr psb in snow
squalls.

Thu... Sct MVFR in mtn -shsn. NW sfc wind gusts to 30 kt.

Marine
Short term through Tuesday ... SCA possible in NE flow tue
afternoon.

Long term...

wed am... Sca's are psb outside the bays.

Wed pm - thu... Sca's likely... With gale's outside the bays.

Fri... Sca's are psb outside the bays.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 41 mi81 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 41°F 49°F1 ft1020 hPa
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 42 mi43 min 33°F 46°F1020.8 hPa
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 45 mi81 min SE 9.7 G 12 40°F 46°F1 ft1020.6 hPa
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 47 mi35 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 36°F 47°F1 ft1020.5 hPa (-1.3)35°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Augusta, Augusta State Airport, ME11 mi32 minNNW 32.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist27°F25°F92%1021.2 hPa
Wiscasset Airport, ME17 mi32 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist33°F32°F96%1021.3 hPa

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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Nehumkeag Island, Kennebec River, Maine
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Nehumkeag Island
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Mon -- 02:17 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:14 AM EST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:09 AM EST     5.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:08 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:43 PM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:30 PM EST     5.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.63.82.81.70.90.60.81.52.73.94.85.254.43.42.21.30.70.61.12.13.44.45

Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
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Mon -- 01:55 AM EST     -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:18 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:36 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:19 AM EST     0.85 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:30 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:25 PM EST     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:09 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:12 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:42 PM EST     0.75 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.20.20.60.80.80.80.70.3-0.3-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.3-0.10.30.70.70.70.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.