Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Barre, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:49PM Tuesday January 22, 2019 8:03 AM EST (13:03 UTC) Moonrise 7:47PMMoonset 9:27AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Barre city, VT
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location: 44.2, -72.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 221240
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
740 am est Tue jan 22 2019

Synopsis
After a cold start temperatures will warm into the single digits and
lower teens by this afternoon with plenty of sunshine and much
lighter winds. Clouds and brisk southerly winds develop after
midnight, as temperatures warm into the mid teens to lower 20s by
Wednesday morning. A period of light snow will develop on Wednesday,
which will change to a light wintry mix by evening with some
locations experiencing a cold rain. A cold front will produce
another period of rain changing to snow on Thursday, with some
snow accumulation likely. Colder temperatures with scattered
snow showers return for Friday into the weekend.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 739 am est Tuesday... Coldest morning of the winter season
across many of our observational sites with btv down to -16f
and slk at -27f.

As 1039mb high pres builds across our CWA today, winds will
become light and variable this morning before slowly shifting to
the south at 4 to 8 mph this aftn. Mid upper lvl ridge overhead
and associated sfc high pres expect plenty of sunshine this
morning with temps slowly rebounding into the single digits to
mid teens by this aftn. 850 to 500mb rh increases from west to
east aft 18z today, indicating high clouds overspread the region
by this aftn.

Tonight, clouds will continue to thicken as strong llvl waa
continues on developing 925mb to 850mb jet of 30 to 40 knots by 09z.

This will cause rapidly warming low level thermal profiles with
925mb temps btwn -4c and -8c by 12z weds. Winds thermal profiles,
along with increasing clouds will make for a challenging overnight
low temps fcst. Thinking temps drop quickly for a few hours this
evening, especially east of the greens, before rising everywhere as
winds and clouds continue to increase overnight. Lows generally -5f
nek to lower teens southern slv, but warm to lower teens east to l m
20s west by 12z weds. Have continued to mention likely pops
approaching the slv northern dacks by 12z, which will be in the form
of light snow showers.

For weds the concerns include gusty southerly winds across the
cpv slv and dacks, along with complex thermal profiles and
associated ptype issues. Overall, event is a high pop light qpf
scenario associated with strong low level WAA lift moisture moving
from southwest to northeast across our fa. A period of snow showers
is likely in the morning into the aftn hours, with general
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with maybe a few localized reports
in the nek of 4 inches. Next issue will be rapidly warming 925mb to
850mb thermal profiles associated with 45 to 60 knot southwest low
level jet. This jet will cause southwest downslope signature in the
qpf snowfall across the cpv, while producing localized wind gusts in
the 35 to 40 mph range on weds aftn, along with areas of blowing
snow. Temps will warm into the 30s to near 40f, except hold in the
lower 30s east of the greens where mixing will be limited,
especially deeper protected valleys. Expecting a general change from
snow to a wintry mix to rain by 00z thurs cpv and points west, while
a wintry mix of sleet freezing rain and snow prevails east of the
greens. Given the recent very cold airmass and extremely cold
pavement temps, thinking even if its raining with the temps in the
mid 30s, areas of icing are likely on roads sidewalks and parking
lots on weds. Good news is the overall QPF will be light and
generally ranging from 0.05 cpv to 0.20 dacks into the mountains of
central northern vt.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
As of 423 am est Tuesday... A warm front will push through the
region during the day on Wednesday and will lead to temperatures
warming through the overnight hours. The challenge is how fast
and where. There's quite a bit of spread from the guidance on
how quickly temps warm as the MOS products push temps into the
upper 30s to low 40s during the day Thursday whereas the raw 2m
output tends to only bring temps into the low to mid 30s. This
leads to quite a different spread of potential p-types. I've
generally trended closer to the raw output think that cold air
damming should keep temps east of the greens slightly colder.

So i've stayed with some continuity and mentioned some periods
of freezing rain or rain for the northeast kingdom. Total ice
amounts should be some where in the realm of a couple hundreths
up to a tenth of an inch.

As the low pushes north and east of the region the cold air
raps around quickly and the transition back to snow should
happen fairly quickly Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon.

The flow becomes more orographic on and we'll see upwards of a
dusting to 2 inches on the back side along with perhaps some
lake effect snow from lake ontario.

As mentioned early temps will be warming through the night
Wednesday so the "overnight lows" in the upper 20s to low 30s
will be set right at 00z. Temps should top out during the day
Thursday in the mid 30s and then we'll see another quick fall as
a cold front drags colder air back for Thursday night. Lows on
Thursday evening should be in the teens.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 423 am est Tuesday... The forecast remains fairly active
heading into the weekend as we stay under cyclonic flow aloft.

We'll see several waves of shortwave energy which bring near
daily chances for snow showers through Monday. Its tough to pick
a day where it might not snow based on the upper level pattern.

Temps will generally be in the 20s for daytime highs and single
digits for lows. The coldest day should be on Saturday where
daytime highs are in the single digits to low teens with
overnight lows back below zero across the north country.

Aviation 13z Tuesday through Saturday
Through 12z Wednesday... 1036mb high pres builds into our taf
sites today, which will result inVFR conditions and decreasing
winds. Expect northwest winds 5 to 10 knots with localized gusts
to 15 knots at mpv, to become less 6 knots by 15z. Winds shift
to the south southwest by this aftn and increase 10 to 15 knots,
especially mss slk and btv by weds with localized higher gusts.

Mid upper level moisture increases this aftn too, which will
result in some high clouds developing from west to east across
our TAF sites. Snow showers approach slk mss by sunrise on weds,
with developing MVFR ifr conditions possible. In addition,
increasing low level jet will produce some area of turbulence
and shear across our TAF sites on weds.

Outlook...

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR and ifr possible. Likely
sn, definite ra, likely fzra, likely pl.

Wednesday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Likely ra,
definite fzra.

Thursday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Likely ra, chance
sn.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance sn,
chance shsn.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Friday night:VFR. Slight chance shsn.

Saturday:VFR. Slight chance shsn.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Taber
near term... Taber
short term... Deal
long term... Deal
aviation... Taber


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT4 mi73 minNW 1210.00 miFair-4°F-15°F58%1034.2 hPa
Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT24 mi70 minNE 610.00 mi-8°F-16°F67%1034.6 hPa

Wind History from MPV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW16
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NW12
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1 day agoCalmNW4NW7NW8NW5NW7NW9NW11NW11NW16
G24
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G23
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G17
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G23
NW15
G22
2 days agoN6NE4NE3NE5NE3NE4CalmNE3N3N3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.