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FXUS61 KBTV 190231 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1031 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A trough of low pressure will move out of the forecast area tonight, bringing showers to a temporary end. More scattered showers are expected tomorrow and Saturday, accompanied by some breezy winds.
Highs will be in the 40s to 60s into early next week when drier air returns Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 1030 PM EDT Thursday...

Forecast remains in overall good shape so only made minor changes to bring it up to date with current obs. See previous discussion below.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

Showers will come to an end tonight as the shortwave providing forcing moves east out of our forecast area, though moisture and clouds will linger under an inversion, and southerly winds will continue. This will produce mild nighttime lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s. Wind gusts could continue up to 10-20 knots throughout the night with a mixed atmosphere.

Tomorrow, we continue to see a low level south/southwesterly jet pick up over the forecast area, with 45-55 knots at the 850mb level by the afternoon. This will mix gusts up to 15-30 knots to the surface, while higher peaks could have wind gusts up to 50 knots. In addition to the winds, a cold front will provide forcing along a moisture axis for some rain showers mainly Friday afternoon. There could be some downsloping shadowing of this precipitation from the winds across the Champlain Valley. Highs will be just a touch above seasonable averages Friday in the mid-50s to lower 60s while remaining mostly cloudy with mild southerly flow.

Tomorrow night, precipitation chances will decrease once more as drier air moves in behind the cold front, with showers lingering on the central/southern Greens and the Northeast Kingdom. In fact, there may even be some mostly clear skies moving into the St.
Lawrence Valley toward sunrise Saturday morning. Winds will taper as the low level jet shifts eastward, but lingering gusts 15-20 knots are possible early on. Lows will still be somewhat mild in the mid- 30s to the mid-40s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 324 PM EDT Thursday...The cold front will continue to push away to the east on Saturday, while an upper shortwave trough scoots by overhead. While the best moisture will have exited with the cold front, the shortwave is fairly vigorous and lapse rates will steepen in response to the cold pool aloft. Scattered showers will develop, mainly across northern areas as the trough swings across, but with very dry air at the surface, hard to discern how much precipitation will be able to reach the ground. Still, any showers will be capable of producing gusty winds. Even outside of convective activity, winds will be breezy due to ample mixing; gusts of 25-35 mph still look reasonable. Temperatures will be cooler than Friday but still seasonable, ranging from the mid 40s to the lower/mid 50s. Showers will wind down Saturday evening as the shortwave pushes east and we lose daytime heating. The reinforcing shot of cold air will allow lows to reach down into the upper 20s to mid/upper 30s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 324 PM EDT Thursday...Other than a few possible showers over far northern areas Sunday as another weak shortwave rotates around the upper low positioned to our north, expect a dry start to next week. Our next chance of precipitation arrives mid week as another upper low digs down into central and southern Ontario/Quebec while a shortwave trough moves east from the Midwest. Still some question on how these two features will interact, but overall model consensus shows a fairly robust upper low pivoting eastward along/just north of the international border Wednesday into Thursday. Better moisture feeding into the system on increasing south/southwest flow will result in widespread shower chances Tuesday night and Wednesday, with showers likely lingering into Thursday, depending on how quickly upper low is able to move eastward. Overnight temperatures Wednesday night would likely be cold enough for snow to mix in at higher elevations. Otherwise, will be a touch on the cooler side, mainly 40s to low 50s, under breezy conditions.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 00Z Saturday...The main occlusion is moving east of KEFK at this time. Water vapor shows an upper curl well, and immediately beneath it is a small pocket of drizzle or light rain with 1-5 SM visibility and 400 to 700 ft agl ceilings.
Outside of this, most areas are VFR with ceilings around 3500-5000 ft agl. The pocket of IFR conditions is beginning to shift east of KMSS and now over KSLK likely through 03z. It's difficult to ascertain impacts over KPBG and Vermont terminals, but it does not appear likely to produce IFR conditions, and have placed most Vermont terminals with SCT 1200-2000 ft agl conditions. Patchy drizzle will remain possible, but appears unlikely to be prevailing, through 12z. After 12z, increasing south surface winds and partial clearing are expected. Wind speeds will more quickly increase after 14z, with winds 9 to 16 knots and gusts 18 to 25 knots. Showers will begin to approach from the west about 17z towards KMSS and decay as it heads east. About 19z, winds at 2000 ft agl will increase to 45 to 50 knots, and areas of LLWS will likely expand across much of the region towards 00z.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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