Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southwest Harbor, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 6:48PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 5:10 PM EDT (21:10 UTC) Moonrise 6:22PMMoonset 6:44AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ052 Intra Coastal Waters From Schoodic Point, Me To Stonington, Me- 323 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
.gale watch in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain likely in the evening, then a chance of rain and snow showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of snow showers in the morning. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow showers through the day. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ005 323 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. High pres will slide to the east tonight. Low pres will develop along the mid atlantic coast on Thu then track north into the gulf of maine on Fri, then move ne into the canadian maritimes over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southwest Harbor CDP, ME
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location: 44.24, -68.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 201949 cca
afdcar
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service caribou me
349 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will move east into the open atlantic tonight. Low
pressure will develop off the mid-atlantic coast on Thursday
and track north toward our region on Friday and then move across
the canadian maritimes later Fri night into Saturday.

Near term through Thursday
Surface high will continue to move east of the gulf of maine
tonight and to the east of nova scotia on Thursday. A light
southerly return flow around the high will result in a much
milder night than last night under partly cloudy skies. Clouds
will continue to increase on Thursday as the high continues east
and low pressure approaches from the south. Much of Thursday
will remain dry, but we could see some light rain developing
across the far western sections late tomorrow afternoon. Even
milder temperatures are expected for Thursday afternoon with
highs expected to range from the low to mid 40s across much of
the region.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
Models still are not in good agreement with the complex
evolution of the developing SE and mid atlc states coastal
low. The issue at heart is where and when does the rapid
intensification period occur followed by capture from a nrn
stream upper low. The 12z gfs, for example has slower
intensification and capture of the sfc low further N ovr inland
me which allows for a longer abv fzg temps Fri aftn into Fri ngt
for all of the fa, while the 12z ECMWF and the prior 00z cangem
are faster with offshore cyclogenesis and then capture over the
n gulf of me, allowing llvl abv fzg air to be overran faster
fri eve ovr NRN and cntrl ptns of the fa by dynamic cooling alf
and llvl cold advcn from E cntrl qb.

For now, we blend these two model camps similar to what is
implied by the 12z ensm gfs, meaning that we begin precip as lgt
sn or a mix later Thu ngt, then chg precip to msly all rn fri
morn contg thru Fri aftn and erly eve, then chg rn to sn ovrngt
fri with sn winding down to sct sn shwrs on sat.

There are no chgs to rnfl concerns we mentioned from the prev
fcst update, with the best potential of rnfl enough to lift ice
on streams and riverways on the piscataquis and penobscot rvr
basins, but not enough to clearly issue a flood watch attm.

With regard to wntr wx hdlns, precip looks to be too light for
any advs in the first part of the event Thu ngt into erly fri
morn, with the chgovr tmg and snfl amts on the post rnfl ptn of
the event ovrngt Fri into Sat morn still to uncertain and far
out in tm to consider hdlns then, although we believe there is
greater potential of snfl and hdlns durg this tm frame
particularly ovr the N and W then the early phase.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Sat ngt and Sun look to be just seasonably cool attm. A cold
front will cross the area Sun night into Mon morning with
possible snow showers acrs ptns of the area. 00z GFS is most
bullish with pcpn ahead of the front with ec and cmc bringing
front thru mostly dry. A reinforcing shot of cold air wl move
into the area for early next week with a warming trend on wed.

Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday
Near term:VFR conditions expected all TAF sites through
Thursday afternoon.

Short to long term: clgs and vsbys lowering from lowVFR to
ifr ovrngt in lgt sn, pl, and rn across the TAF sites late Thu ngt,
then contg ifr msly in rn on Fri and Fri eve, before transitioning
back to sn ovrngt Fri into Sat morn. Conditions slowly improve to
MVFR as sn tapers to sn shwrs Sat aftn eve and then toVFR late sat
ngt contg thru sun.

Marine
Near term: winds seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
through Thursday. Visibility is expected to remain
unrestricted through the period.

Short to long term: winds and seas will ramp up ovrngt thu
into Fri morn to minimal gales ahead of strengthening low pres
from the mid atlc states. Winds will likely subside later fri
aftn and eve as the sfc low tracks ovr or very near our waters,
then increase on the back side of the low late Fri ngt into sat
as it moves into the can maritimes with perhaps another pd of
gale force wind gusts. Winds and seas will then slowly subside
thru scas Sat ngt and sun. Kept close to ww3 nwps guidance blend
wv hts for these ptns of the fcst.

Hydrology
The combined amount of rainfall and snowmelt may be enough to
lift ice and generate ice jam potential in the southern half of
the forecast area, particularly the piscataquis and penobscot
rvr basins. River rises are progged at 2 to 4 feet which should
be sufficient to break up some ice. Further north, existing
snowpack will likely absorb the rainfall without issues. The
combined t TD thawing degree hour index is still not indicating
any caution signals as the period of warmer temps and dew points
is relatively brief, so will hold off any flood watches attm.

Along the coast, high astronomical tides and storm surge at
Friday morning's high tides seem likely to cause minor issues at
some of the usual trouble spots such as the deer isle causeway,
seawall road, and machias.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
anz050>052.

Near term... Duda
short term... Vjn
long term... Vjn
aviation... Duda vjn
marine... Duda vjn
hydrology... Vjn


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 13 mi41 min 38°F 34°F1026.5 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 16 mi127 min SSW 14 G 16 35°F 38°F1 ft1027.3 hPa
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 22 mi71 min SSE 15 G 16 37°F 1027.3 hPa (-2.0)
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 37 mi127 min S 12 G 16 36°F 35°F2 ft1026.7 hPa
MISM1 - Matinicus Rock, ME 41 mi71 min S 17 G 18 38°F 1026.5 hPa (-2.1)

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME15 mi15 minSSW 1410.00 miFair36°F23°F59%1026.9 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for Bass Harbor, Mount Desert Island, Maine
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Mackerel Cove, Maine
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Mackerel Cove
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:43 AM EDT     -1.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:52 AM EDT     12.38 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:15 PM EDT     -1.74 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 11:23 PM EDT     11.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.87.241.1-0.7-1.10.236.59.711.812.411.495.62.2-0.5-1.7-1.30.84.17.610.411.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.