Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southwest Harbor, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:32PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 3:59 AM EST (08:59 UTC) Moonrise 8:46PMMoonset 9:49AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ052 Intra Coastal Waters From Schoodic Point, Me To Stonington, Me- 314 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.storm watch in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday evening...
Today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt late this morning and early afternoon, then diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Light freezing spray early this morning. A slight chance of snow early this afternoon. A chance of rain late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..SW winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Areas of fog in the evening. Rain, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow through the night. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow showers through the day, then rain likely in the evening. Snow likely through the night. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ005 314 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. Low pres will approach from the W today and lift N of the area tonight. SEcondary low pres will form over the state on Thu and track ne into the maritimes Thu night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southwest Harbor CDP, ME
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location: 44.24, -68.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 230426
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
1126 pm est Tue jan 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will cross the region tonight. Low pressure will
approach Wednesday then cross the area Wednesday night into
Thursday.

Near term through Wednesday
11:25 pm update: forecast remains on track with high clouds now
pushing into the area. Adjusted temperatures down a bit downeast
in the overnight period with clearer skies there allowing temps
to fall quickly early tonight.

Previous discussion:
high pressure will cross the region tonight, with a warm front
approaching late. Winds will diminish early tonight, with patchy
blowing snow possible this evening. After a mostly clear
evening, clouds will increase overnight in advance of the warm
front. Could also have a slight chance of snow across
northwest areas late. Low pressure approaching from the west
will draw the warm front north Wednesday. Overrunning snows will
develop across the region Wednesday through the morning into
early afternoon. Snow will then persist across much of the
region through the afternoon. However, warmer air being drawn
north could begin to transition the snow to a wintry mix across
interior downeast areas and to rain along the coast late
afternoon. Snow accumulations through Wednesday are generally
expected to range from 1 to 2 inches across northern areas to
less than an inch downeast. Low temperatures will occur early
tonight then begin to warm overnight with increasing clouds. Low
temperatures will generally range through the single digits
below zero north, to zero to 5 above interior downeast with 5 to
10 along the downeast coast. High temperatures Wednesday will
range from the lower to mid 20s north, to the mid 30s interior
downeast with upper 30s along the downeast coast.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
Low pressure is expected to move from the great lakes on a
northeasterly track and pass to the west of new england on
Thursday. This will result in strong warm advection across the
region. Snow will change to mixed precipitation then eventually
rain from south to north during Wednesday evening. The
precipitation is expected to change to all rain across the
region by 12z Thursday morning. The rain is then expected to
change to snow and snow showers Thursday evening as the low
moves to the north of the state and colder air moves in behind
it. A cold front will approach from the west on Friday. Will use
the top down method run on a blend of the NAM and GFS for
precipitation type. The snow ratio tool is used for snow
accumulation. Will issue a winter weather advisory for Wednesday
night.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
A cold front will move across the region late Friday and Friday
night. High pressure will build in from the northwest on
Saturday and Sunday. Another cold front will approach from the
west on Monday and move across the region Monday night. Low
pressure is then expected to approach from the southwest on
Tuesday.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Near term:VFR conditions are expected across the region
overnight. MVFR conditions could begin to develop across
northern areas between 12-15z wed. Conditions will lower to
ifr lifr levels north, MVFR ifr levels downeast, Wednesday.

Short term: expect ifr conditions Wednesday night through
Thursday.VFR conditions are expected Friday through Sunday.

Marine
Near term: a small craft advisory is in effect on the waters
through 3 am wed. Winds will increase with building seas
Wednesday with small craft advisory conditions expected. Light
freezing spray is expected tonight.

Short term: a strong low level jet is expected across the waters
on Thursday. Will use the NAM to initialize winds. A strong
southerly fetch is expected to develop across the gulf of maine
on Wednesday into Thursday with wave heights building to around
19 feet 10-11 seconds late Thursday. The fetch will be broken
up by the wind shift into the southwest Thursday evening with
wave heights subsiding Thursday night into Friday. Total water
level: negative surge is expected to end tonight as strong off-
shore winds diminish. Positive storm surge is expected to
increase Wednesday into Thursday as southerly winds increase in
response to strong low level jet. Surge models expect maximum
surge (+1.00) later Thursday afternoon. Will keep the base tide
anomaly at +0.50 feet for Wednesday and Thursday. Will keep
close eye on total water levels as the astronomical spring tide
is still around the highest levels of the month.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... Winter weather advisory from 5 pm Wednesday to 7 am est
Thursday for mez001>006-010.

Winter weather advisory from 5 pm Wednesday to midnight est
Wednesday night for mez011-015>017-031-032.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 3 am est Wednesday for anz050>052.

Near term... CB norcross
short term... Mignone
long term... Mignone
aviation... CB norcross mignone
marine... CB norcross mignone


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 13 mi60 min 14°F 31°F1031.1 hPa (-0.8)
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 16 mi116 min WNW 9.7 G 14 21°F 39°F2 ft
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 22 mi60 min W 9.9 G 11 22°F 1031 hPa (-1.1)
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 37 mi116 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 19°F 36°F
MISM1 - Matinicus Rock, ME 41 mi60 min W 8 G 8.9 25°F 1030.6 hPa (-2.0)

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME15 mi64 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds8°F-4°F57%1031.6 hPa

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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NW6NW6W7W8NW4NW3W4NW5CalmCalmSW3Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Bass Harbor, Mount Desert Island, Maine
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Mackerel Cove, Maine
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Mackerel Cove
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:56 AM EST     -1.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:49 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:05 PM EST     12.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:35 PM EST     -2.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.310.38.151.8-0.4-1.1-0.12.35.79.211.712.7129.96.73-0.1-1.8-2-0.42.569.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.