Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Blue Hill, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:51PM Monday October 15, 2018 7:46 PM EDT (23:46 UTC) Moonrise 1:14PMMoonset 10:34PM Illumination 39% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ052 Intra Coastal Waters From Schoodic Point, Me To Stonington, Me- 610 Pm Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
.gale warning in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight, then becoming W 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers, mainly this evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this evening.
Tue..W winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the evening, then becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ005 610 Pm Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. A cold front will cross the water tonight. High pressure will build across the waters Tue. A cold front will cross the region Wed.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Blue Hill, ME
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location: 44.24, -68.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 152211
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
611 pm edt Mon oct 15 2018

Synopsis
A strong cold front will cross the region late tonight. High
pressure builds back into the area later Tuesday and will be
followed by another cold front Wednesday afternoon.

Near term through Tuesday
6 pm update... Showers remain widespread across the area, but the
back edge of the showers can be seen in the southwest so
preciptiation forecast remains on track. Had to lower temps in
the north where it's been raining. Othewise, no major changes
this hour.

Intense low pressure will pass to the northwest of the state
tonight. A strong cold front will approach the region behind the
low and move across the region late this evening. The front is
expected to bring showers followed by a much cold air mass.

There is also a very tight pressure gradient behind the front
which will cause winds to increase late tonight into the
morning Tuesday. Will upgrade the high wind watch in the north
to a high wind warning and will also issue a wind advisory for
the southern portion of the forecast area. Primary concern is
impact from power outages with leaves still on trees and ground
still unfrozen. Winds are expected to slowly diminish later in
the morning and afternoon Tuesday.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday
An anomalously cold upper trough over hudson's bay will dominate
local weather Tuesday night into Sunday with an early sampling
of wintry weather. On Tuesday night, the strong winds from
earlier in the day will decrease as a transient ridge builds
over the area. The air mass in place will be cold enough for
sub-freezing temperatures in the northern half of the forecast
area, but cloud cover is expected over bangor and the
coast... Limiting lows to the upper 30s to lower 40s. On
Wednesday, a cold front will cross the area in the afternoon.

The combination of cold air aloft and steep low level lapse
rates will produce modest amounts of SBCAPE and shower activity.

With the cold air aloft, can't rule out isolated thunderstorms
and graupel as some storms could reach a relatively low -20c
threshold. Will hold off on mentioning in forecast now, but the
synoptic setup seems as good as it gets for fall graupel in the
northern zones. These northern zones will record highs in the
upper 40s to lower 50s. The coast will be even warmer with
readings in the upper 50s. Overall QPF looks fairly light
outside of locally heavier showers or thunderstorms. Winds could
be gusty with mixing, but doesn't look as impressive as Tuesday
or Thursday. On Wednesday night, a secondary trough will cross.

The air aloft will be about as cold as ever occurs in mid-
october with 1000-500 thicknesses as low as 511dm. Normally, the
boundary layer stays too warm for snow for many early season
events, but this air is so cold that snow will be possible in
northern zones Wednesday night with up to an inch possible along
the secondary trough... Especially towards the saint john valley
and NW aroostook county. The timing of the secondary trough at
night is always beneficial for october snow. The cold air will
be in place on Thursday with the lowest highs of the fall season
to date. Highs will only be in the mid to upper 30s for much of
the area. Steep low level lapse rates and instability up to
h800 will create very strong wind gusts and flurries on
Thursday. Have added flurries into the forecast on Thursday in
spite of low pops. Wind chills will be in the low 20s in
aroostook county on Thursday. The record low high at bangor is
39f for the date... Close to the forecast high of 41f. The winds
may prompt another advisory with gusts to 40 mph and remaining
leaves on the trees.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Winds will gradually come down Thursday, but not much chance of
strong radiational cooling except towards the allagash and nw
international border where some teens are forecast.

Elsewhere, the air mass is cold enough for low to mid 20s for
most of the area. Temperatures will moderate Friday with as
winds become southwest and warm frontal clouds move over the
area. Highs will move into the 40s. Thicker clouds arrive Friday
night with a chance of showers Friday night into Saturday night.

The phasing of southern stream energy with another strong
northern stream cold front looks like it will take place east
of maine... Thus will maintain mostly chance pops through the
Friday night to Saturday night time period, but it does look
like the area will see a lot of cloud cover and warmer
temperatures on Saturday. The cold front will sweep across the
area Saturday night with a return to the early season cold for
the beginning of next week. Winds in the CAA may be a problem
again Sunday... Based on gfs ECMWF solutions, but a lot of the
leaves should be gone by then to mitigate potential issues.

Aviation 22z Monday through Saturday
Near term: expect MVFR ifr conditions this evening then
improving toVFR later tonight and Tuesday.

Short term: the predominant condition into Saturday will beVFR.

Winds will be the biggest issue. Gusty winds are expected
Wednesday into Thursday... And again Saturday. Thursday will be
the worst with 40 kt gusts possible from the nw.

Marine
Near term: have used a blend of the GFS and NAM for surface
winds. Will keep gale warning through Tuesday morning. For
waves: expect the primary wave system tonight and Tuesday to be
off-shore wind wave. Waves off-shore will build to 9-10 feet 9
seconds. Waves will subside slowly with wind speed later in the
day Tuesday. Total water level: will keep the base tide anomaly
at +0.30 along the coast. Surge guidance suggests reverse surge
Tuesday (-1.0) with strong off-shore winds. Will continue to use
the estofs which looks most reasonable opposed to etss. In
bangor need to put correction to base tide anomaly back in
place at low tide.

Short term: strong winds will be a problem through the forecast
period. An SCA will be ending Tuesday evening, but sca
conditions will return Wednesday and continue into Thursday
night. Gale conditions are possible late Wednesday night into
Thursday for the outer waters. Yet another SCA is expected
Friday night into Saturday.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... High wind warning from 5 am to 2 pm edt Tuesday for mez001>006-
010.

Wind advisory from 5 am to 2 pm edt Tuesday for mez011-015>017-
029>032.

Marine... Gale warning until 2 pm edt Tuesday for anz050>052.

Near term... Mignone mcb
short term... Mcw
long term... Mcw
aviation... Mignone mcw
marine... Mignone mcw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 22 mi29 min S 12 G 24 57°F 55°F1008.6 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 26 mi103 min S 21 G 25 56°F 54°F5 ft1010.8 hPa
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 26 mi103 min S 23 G 27 57°F 56°F4 ft1008.9 hPa
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 30 mi47 min SSE 34 G 37 56°F 1009.8 hPa (-5.6)
MISM1 - Matinicus Rock, ME 35 mi47 min S 33 G 35 57°F 1008.1 hPa (-5.5)

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME18 mi1.8 hrsS 16 G 287.00 miLight Rain56°F54°F93%1011.4 hPa

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW4CalmCalmW5NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S11S13S17
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1 day agoSW3SW4W4W4NW4CalmSW3W33W4W4CalmCalmCalmW3W5N7
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2 days agoNW6NW6NW4NW4W3W3W4W4W3CalmW3W4W4W5W3Calm3W35NW3W4SW4SW3SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Naskeag Harbor, Penobscot Bay, Maine
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Naskeag Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:04 AM EDT     9.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:01 AM EDT     1.75 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:12 PM EDT     10.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:44 PM EDT     1.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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35.37.599.59.17.85.73.72.31.82.23.65.77.99.510.29.98.76.64.32.41.31

Tide / Current Tables for Sedgwick, Penobscot Bay, Maine
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Sedgwick
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:09 AM EDT     9.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:09 AM EDT     1.75 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:17 PM EDT     10.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:52 PM EDT     1.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.85.17.38.99.59.27.963.92.41.82.13.45.57.79.410.1108.86.94.62.61.31

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.