Sunday, July23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Clayton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:38PM Sunday July 23, 2017 4:38 AM EDT (08:38 UTC) Moonrise 4:57AMMoonset 7:51PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 402 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Tonight..North winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. Mostly cloudy.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Monday night..East winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening...then a chance of showers overnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers during the day.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clayton, NY
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location: 44.24, -76.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 230827
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
427 am edt Sun jul 23 2017

Synopsis
Through Monday... Low pressure will slowly track east along a nearly
stationary frontal boundary draped across our region... And this will
set the stage for periodic showers and thunderstorms. Some of these
could produce locally heavy rainfall... With a few of the storms also
possibly becoming strong to severe across western new york this
afternoon and evening. Following the passage of this system... Canadian
high pressure will then build across our region Tuesday... Ushering
in a return to mainly dry and cooler weather along with much more
comfortable humidity levels.

Near term through tonight
Through the course of today... A compact but also fairly potent mid-
level shortwave trough will steadily press southeastward across the
great lakes... With its attendant broad surface low over lake erie
slowly meandering its way into western new york. In the process...

this latter feature will help to push a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary a little further northward into our region... With the
front roughly straddling our southernmost two tiers of counties
this afternoon.

While we can expect some continued spotty light showers to persist
through this morning out in advance of the above features... Things
will begin to change by midday early this afternoon... As increasing
large-scale forcing and lift supplied by the front low mid level
trough spreads across our region... And interacts with our humid
airmass and building diurnally-driven instability. This will result
in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms likely initiating
across far western new york sometime in the 16z-18z time frame...

before growing more numerous widespread and pushing northeastward
across the finger lakes and into central new york through the rest
of the afternoon and early evening hours. In the forecast... This has
been covered with a mix of likely to lower-end categorical pops
across areas south of lake ontario this afternoon and early this
evening... While we have maintained chance-level probabilities for
much more scattered convection across the north country.

As has been previously highlighted... There continues to be a risk
for both heavy rainfall and some strong to severe storms this afternoon
and early this evening. Precipitable water values will surge to between
1.5 and 1.75 inches... Which will be supportive of localized heavy
rainfall and flood concerns if any areas of training cells manage to
materialize. In addition... Plenty of shear will also be in place... With
0-6 km bulk shear values of 40-45 knots in play... And vertical wind
profiles suggesting that this will be comprised of both speed and
directional shear... With a low level southeasterly southerly flow out
ahead of the surface low underlying an increasingly fast westerly flow
at the mid and upper levels. Such levels of shear are supportive of at
least a conditional risk for some stronger to severe storms... With the
caveat that this risk will be highly dependent on the amount of instability
that actually develops... Which will be a function of both daytime
heating (cloud cover) and the position of the main surface front.

Compared to what was seen 24 hours ago... The 00z 23 guidance suite has
trended a bit stronger with instability levels south of lake ontario...

with the nam GFS gem all now suggesting that MUCAPE values will at least
reach the 1000-2000 j kg range from about the western finger lakes
westward... And the former two models suggesting the potential for mucape
levels in excess of 2000 j kg across the western southern tier... Which
makes sense given the expected position of the main surface front. Should
all this actually come to fruition... This would place the greatest risk
for strong to severe storms across the western southern tier this afternoon
and evening... With a gradually lowering risk then extending northeastward
across the remainder of the region south of lake ontario. This meshes
up very well with the latest SPC day 1 convective outlook... Which
still features a slight risk area across portions of far western new
york... And a surrounding marginal risk area that extends northeastward
to oswego county.

Given the above parameters... At this point the primary severe weather
threats still appear to be damaging winds and to a lesser extent large
hail... With the above mentioned veering wind profiles and presence of the
main frontal zone also supportive of a much smaller (but still non-zero)
risk for an isolated tornado. With this in mind... Will continue to
highlight this potential within our hazardous weather outlook... As well
as carry enhanced wording in our routine forecast products where
appropriate.

As we move into tonight... The axis of the mid-level shortwave trough
will settle across nearby southern ontario... While forcing the surface
low to slowly lift northeastward across far western new york. This
will result in the most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
steadily shifting eastward into the finger lakes and the north country
over time... With convection becoming more scattered across far western
new york. In general the greatest thunderstorm coverage and risk for
strong to severe storms will be found south of lake ontario during the
early evening hours... Before diminishing instability leads to a rapid
reduction in both thunder coverage and severe storm potential for the
balance of the night.

The above stated... Concerns for locally heavy rainfall will actually
increase through the night across the north country... Where a deepening
southerly feed of moisture and increasing lift will set up out ahead of
the surface wave and mid level trough. This could potentially result in
a period of moderate to heavier rain setting up across this latter region
later tonight and then persisting into if not right through Monday... Which
could in turn lead to basin average rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches
per the 00z 23 guidance suite... With some individual models (most notably
the nam12 and regional gem) suggesting the potential for as much as 2-3
inches of rainfall. Were the latter to be realized... This would obviously
lead to some flood concerns. With this in mind have toyed with the idea of
issuing a flood watch for our eastern lake ontario counties... Though given
lingering model discrepancies and resultant forecast uncertainty have
elected to hold off on this for now... In favor of continued enhanced
wording in the forecast and mention in the hwo.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing as we start the
day Monday as well defined mid level wave is forecasted to propagate
across the eastern great lakes sending its attendant surface low
into western new york Monday morning. Potential exists for heavy
rainfall, especially across central new york as precipitable water
values approach 1.5 inches as low level deformation deformation
increase ahead of approaching surface low and associated low level
boundary. The most favorable surface based instability will be
Monday afternoon across central new york. SPC has included a
marginal risk area on Monday. These potential hazards will continue
to be highlighted in the hazardous weather outlook.

Convection will trend downward Monday night as the surface low moves
to a position off the new england coast with high pressure in the
process of building back across the great lakes.

Tuesday and Tuesday night will feature dry and quiet weather as high
pressure settles over western new york.

Temperatures will run cooler Monday and Tuesday topping out below
normal late july levels. Highs run generally reach into the lower to
mid 70s in the cool northerly flow on the backside of the passing
low overnight lows will bottom out in the 50s Monday and Tuesday
nights with cool and dry northerly flow.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Upper level ridging will crest across the region on Wednesday,
providing for one more fair weather day for western and north-
central new york, with seasonable temperatures in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. After a couple of cooler nights earlier in the week,
mugginess will return Wednesday night as surface high pressure moves
off the new england coast, opening up the lower great lakes to
warm and moist southerly flow. This will be reflected in lows
that will run in the mid to upper 60s. Along with this increase
in humidity, we will see a chance of showers and thunderstorms
towards daybreak, as a prominent upper level trough approaches
the area.

Model consensus continues to indicate the passage of the
aforementioned upper level trough on Thursday. This should result in
widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday evening
as a cold front sags south across the area. A secondary reinforcing
shortwave may end up aiding in the development of diurnal showers
Friday afternoon, particularly across the southern half of the
forecast area, closer to the hung up frontal boundary. Nominally
cooler air filtering in behind the front may yield a milder day
Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Aviation 09z Sunday through Thursday
For the most part... The pre-dawn hours will continue to feature
vfr conditions under increasing amounts of mid and high cloud cover...

with just a few spotty light showers dampening otherwise mainly dry
conditions. The exception to this will be found across the western
southern tier (including kjhw) where low level moisture advecting in
from the ohio valley will lead to the development of lifr ifr stratus...

with this possibly lowering enough to lead to the development of fog
ifr vsbys across the higher terrain.

As we move into the daylight hours... Any lifr ifr in low stratus
fog over the southern tier should improve back to MVFRVFR during
the morning. Otherwise... Approaching low pressure and increasing
diurnally-driven instability will lead to the development of scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms across far western new york by
early afternoon... With these then becoming more widespread and pushing
eastward across the finger lakes and into central new york through the
rest of this afternoon and tonight. General MVFR toVFR conditions
out ahead of the convection will deteriorate to ifr MVFR within the
showers and thunderstorms... With some of the storms capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall. In addition... A few stronger to severe storms
with strong wind gusts and hail will also be possible across western
new york this afternoon and evening.

As tonight progresses... Expect flight conditions to lower to a mix of
MVFR across the lower elevations and ifr across the higher terrain as
low level moisture increases across our region... And leads to the
development of fairly widespread lower ceilings.

Outlook...

Monday and Monday night... Showers and scattered thunderstorms
should gradually diminish from west to east... Though widespread
ifr MVFR ceilings will likely persist in lingering lower stratus
stratocumulus.

Tuesday... Improvement back toVFR with any leftover scattered
showers ending early.

Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night and Thursday... MainlyVFR with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
As low pressure approaches our region today and this evening...

easterly to east-northeasterly winds will increase to between 15
and 25 knots across the western two-thirds of lake ontario. While
the strongest overall winds will remain out over the open waters...

recent guidance trends toward slightly stronger winds and a subtle
backing of the flow for a time this evening both favor conditions
reaching advisory criteria from the niagara river eastward to about
irondequoit bay. With this in mind... A small craft advisory has
been issued as outlined below.

While gradient winds and waves will be lower across the rest of
the region today and tonight... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms
developing this afternoon and evening could also produce locally
strong wind gusts and correspondingly higher waves.

Tides coastal flooding
As low pressure approaches our region Sunday and Sunday evening...

a low-level easterly to east-northeasterly flow will briefly
strengthen across lake ontario with this potentially
strengthening enough to generate some lakeshore flooding
concerns along the south shore of the lake from roughly niagara
county east to monroe county. Latest guidance keeps the
strength of the winds just below a critical threshold to drive
waves high enough for the issuance of a lakeshore flood watch at
this point but will continue to be closely monitored.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Beach hazards statement from 2 pm edt this afternoon through
this evening for nyz001>003.

Lakeshore flood watch from this afternoon through late tonight
for nyz001>003.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 am edt
Monday for loz042-043.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Jjr
short term... Tma
long term... Wood
aviation... Jjr
marine... Jjr
tides coastal flooding... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 10 mi51 min 72°F1009.3 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 45 mi51 min 67°F 1009.8 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 58 mi51 min E 1.9 G 4.1 68°F 1008.1 hPa64°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY16 mi1.7 hrsENE 46.00 miFog/Mist64°F64°F100%1008.2 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY23 mi1.7 hrsENE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy65°F61°F88%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S5S4S3S3SW7S8SW7W6SW7SW6SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E3E3E4NE5
1 day agoS4S4S6SW6SW7SW9SW10W11
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2 days agoS4S5S5SW7W8W9SW7SW8W8SW10SE12
G20
N6W4NW5W6W3S3S3S5S4S3S4S4S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.