Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Clayton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 7:16PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 5:08 AM EDT (09:08 UTC) Moonrise 5:55PMMoonset 6:16AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 642 Am Est Mon Dec 31 2018
Today..Southeast winds less than 10 knots becoming east. A chance of rain showers late.
Tonight..East winds 10 knots or less becoming west and increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Rain and snow showers through the early overnight, then rain showers late.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy.
Wednesday..Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of snow and rain during the day, then a chance of snow Friday night. The saint lawrence seaway is closing to navigation for the season today. Therefore, the forecast for the saint lawrence river has been discontinued. The forecast will resume in the spring when the river opens for navigation.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clayton, NY
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location: 44.24, -76.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 200737
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
337 am edt Wed mar 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure centered along the mid-atlantic coastline will
slide offshore today. The high will maintain dry weather through
the day... With an influx of milder air on its backside also helping
to push temperatures back above normal. Low pressure will then make
its way across the great lakes and bring some light rain showers
to the area between tonight and Thursday... With much colder air
and snow showers then following in its wake on Friday.

Near term through tonight
During the course of today high pressure centered along the mid-
atlantic coastline will drift offshore... While a shortwave trough
and attendant modest area of low pressure digs into the upper great
lakes. A developing return southerly southwesterly flow of milder
air in between these two systems will help push afternoon highs
back up into the mid 40s to lower 50s for the most part... With the
warmest overall readings found across the genesee valley and finger
lakes region. The exception to this will be areas immediately
northeast of the lakes... Where a general 220 degree flow will
help keep highs confined to the lower half of the 40s. Otherwise
the day will be characterized by dry weather thanks to lingering
subsidence attendant to the departing surface ridge... Though the
general warm air advection regime will eventually result in
sunshine giving way to increasing clouds across far western new
york during the mid to late afternoon hours.

Tonight the aforementioned shortwave and its associated broad modest
surface low will slowly make its way eastward across lower michigan.

The rather slow movement to this system (and its continued slowing
trend seen in the 00z 20 guidance suite) will result in a further
delayed arrival of its cloud cover and light precip across our area...

with only portions of far western new york likely to see enough of
an uptick in moisture and weak synoptic-scale ascent to warrant
some likely to lower-end categorical pops overnight. East of this...

precipitation chances will quickly taper off to low chance with
increasing eastward extent... With it entirely possible that the
north country and far interior portions of the southern tier actually
remain dry right through the night. With respect to precipitation
type... The atmospheric column should be too warm for anything but
just plain light rain showers south of lake ontario... With the only
potential for any snow showers lying across the higher terrain of
the north country... Where thermal profiles will be a bit cooler.

As for low temperatures... These will generally be in the mid to
upper 30s south of lake ontario... And in the lower to mid 30s
across the north country.

Short term Thursday through Saturday night
A very complex pattern evolution will unfold across the northeast
Thursday through Friday as multiple northern and southern stream
shortwaves phase and evolve into a closed low over new england. The
system will start warm Thursday before turning colder and more
winter-like later Friday as cold air rapidly wraps into the western
side of the developing closed low.

Thursday and Thursday evening an initial northern stream trough will
move slowly through the great lakes and partially phase with a
southern stream trough moving through the ohio valley. Energy from
the southern stream wave will move off the mid atlantic coast
Thursday night and begin to force secondary coastal cyclogenesis off
the delmarva. On Friday two more sharp northern stream shortwaves
will dig through the great lakes, fully phasing with the initial
trough and developing into a closed low by late Friday afternoon.

The coastal low will rapidly deepen Friday as it moves northward
just off the new england coast, moving inland into maine by Friday
evening.

Looking at the sensible weather details for our area, Thursday the
slow passage of the initial mid level trough and weak surface front
will produce some light precipitation across the region, especially
for western ny and the eastern lake ontario region. The majority of
this will fall as rain, although some wet snowflakes may mix in
early and late in the day across the higher terrain. Temperatures
will remain quite mild, with highs in the upper 40s on the lake
plains and low to mid 40s across higher terrain.

Mostly light precipitation will continue Thursday night as the first
trough continues to slowly cross the area. The western periphery of
heavier precipitation within a deformation zone developing northwest
of the coastal low will primarily move across eastern ny and new
england, although the western edge of this may clip lewis county.

Again much of this will fall as rain across the lower elevations,
with some wet snow mixing in across higher terrain. Low temperatures
will be in the mid 30s in most locations and lower 30s for higher
terrain.

Friday and Friday night the deepening and maturing coastal low will
allow for deep northwest cyclonic flow to develop across the eastern
great lakes. Abundant wrap around moisture, developing lake
instability, and upslope flow will all contribute to widespread
precipitation later Friday and Friday night. Precipitation type will
still be a mix of rain and wet snow through mid afternoon Friday
before rapidly changing to all snow by early evening Friday as
strong cold advection develops in the wake of the coastal low.

Widespread wrap around snow will then likely continue through at
least the first half of Friday night. The ECMWF remains the most
aggressive with the coverage and intensity of wrap around snow Friday
night, but even the GFS and NAM suggest a good potential for at
least some accumulation across the entire region. It will turn quite
windy as well Friday and Friday night, with gusts over 35 mph
possible as cold air pours back into the region.

The northwest flow lake effect and upslope snow will continue
through Saturday morning before tapering off from west to east
Saturday afternoon as the strong coastal low begins to move into the
canadian maritimes and away from the region. Additional light snow
accumulations are possible Saturday morning. Temperatures will be
well below normal, with highs in the 30s.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
High pressure will build into the ohio valley and southern great
lakes Saturday night before moving off the mid atlantic coast
Sunday. Subsidence and dry air will provide a period of dry weather
for our region. Warm advection will rapidly overspread the eastern
great lakes by Sunday, allowing temperatures to soar above normal,
if only for one day. Expect highs in the 50s in many areas away from
the lakeshores, along with a good deal of sunshine.

The warm-up will come to an end later Sunday night or Monday morning
as a strong cold front sags south across the great lakes and new
england. The GFS and ECMWF diverge significantly with the handling
of a baroclinic wave forecast to run along this frontal zone. The
gfs is much stronger and farther north, bringing widespread
precipitation to the region Sunday night and Monday with rain
changing to snow. The ECMWF is much farther south and weaker with
this wave, with a mainly dry frontal passage. Given the model
uncertainty, just kept a low chance of rain snow for later Sunday
night and Monday.

Despite the initial model uncertainty, models are in good agreement
in bringing much colder air into the region Monday through the
middle of next week. This will bring another period of winter-like
temperatures to our region for at least a few days. High pressure
rapidly builds into the great lakes behind the front. Associated
subsidence and dry air will likely keep the lake response to a
minimum despite the cold air, with mainly dry weather for Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure draped along the mid-atlantic coastline will slide
offshore today... While modest low pressure develops into the upper
great lakes. The departing high will maintain widespreadVFR flight
conditions through the day... Albeit with some increase in mid level
clouds across far western new york from about mid afternoon onward.

Tonight the aforementioned low will slowly make its way eastward
across lower michigan. As it does so... It will spread increasing
thickeningVFR-level clouds across our region from west to east...

with some light rain showers eventually pushing across portions of
far western new york during the later evening and overnight hours...

with much more scattered activity across areas further to the east.

As this activity will be rather light it will be unlikely to produce
any reductions in visibility... ThereforeVFR conditions will continue
through the night.

Outlook...

Thursday... Deterioration to MVFR ifr in rain showers.

Friday... MVFR ifr in snow showers.

Saturday...VFR MVFR with a chance of snow showers.

Sunday...VFR.

Marine
A generally weak to modest pressure gradient will be in place across
the lower great lakes through early Thursday night... With winds and
waves remaining below advisory levels through that time. After that
the pressure gradient across the region will tighten as a strengthening
area of low pressure tracks northeastward along the mid-atlantic and
new england coastlines and thenceforth into the canadian maritimes...

resulting in an increasing likelihood of advisory-worthy winds and
waves between later Thursday night and Saturday night.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Jjr
short term... Hitchcock
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Jjr
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 10 mi57 min 1026 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 45 mi57 min 27°F 1026 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 58 mi51 min SSE 7 G 8

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY16 mi73 minS 410.00 miFair30°F23°F75%1026.7 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY23 mi73 minSSE 810.00 miFair26°F19°F76%1026.3 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.