Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 5:23PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 11:18 PM EST (04:18 UTC) Moonrise 12:51PMMoonset 10:24PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 952 Pm Est Tue Nov 13 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am est Wednesday...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering north, then backing south late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:201811141015;;270054 FZUS53 KGRR 140252 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 952 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-141015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee, MI
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location: 44.25, -86.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 140233
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
933 pm est Tue nov 13 2018

Update
Issued at 933 pm est Tue nov 13 2018
mid level short-wave trough axis cuts down through the central
great lakes region, just east of the cwa. Surface high pressure
spans a large portion of the central CONUS and trying to nose into
the western great lakes although lake aggregate troughing lingers
along the north shore of the u.P.

Meanwhile, tongue of very cold air (-16c to -18c h8 temps) has
invaded northern michigan resulting in very cold temperatures for
mid november and fairly beefy (although transient) lake snows
through the course of the day, with daytime accumulations up to 6
inches in a few spots. Lake snow shower organization and
intensities did diminish late in the afternoon, but have become
better organized in the last hour or so with the best lake band
cutting across leelanau county eastward through antrim and into
crawford county. Kapx radar shows some sort of smaller scale
circulation rolling through NW lower michigan currently producing
briefly heavy snows.

Best lake effect conditions are now, with broad cyclonic
flow moisture plenty of over water instability and lake induced
cape values in excess of 500 j kg. Conditions diminish as we go
through the night as high pressure drier air lower inversion
heights gradually take hold, first through lower michigan and
eventually the u.P. So, will continue that idea in the forecast.

Headlines: have 2 to 4 inches of total nighttime accumulation
across the snowbelts of northern lower and 3 to 6 in northern
chippewa county. A few spots in chippewa and antrim counties
could push 24 hour warning criteria by morning (10 inches). But i
think overall accumulations will remain within advisory realm.

Thus I plan to keep the advisories intact as is.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 313 pm est Tue nov 13 2018

Accumulation lake effect snow continues...

high impact weather potential... Significant lake effect snow
accumulating several inches across the typical snowbelt
regions.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Deep upper level trough axis is overhead
this afternoon as it pivots its way eastward thru the great lakes
region. This feature continues to provide additional enhancement to
our ongoing lake effect snow event in the form of weak CAA and
another shot of synoptic moisture. Results have been the formation
of a dominant band across the heart of the northern lower michigan
snowbelt region with obvious ties to the upstream dominant band
plainly visible on kmqt base ref. Thanks to lake superior
preconditioning... This band has been quite impressive over the past
few hours... Laying down 1-2 inch per hour snowfall amounts across
mainly antrim county. Diurnal disruption as resulting in some
cellular components to the banded structure... But overall definition
of the dominant band has been maintained all the way from lake
superior into northern lower michigan.

As we head into this evening... Upper level trough axis will shift
east out of michigan as will the associated lobe of enhanced synoptic
moisture and lift. 1000-800 mb winds will remain from the W NW and
over-lake instability will remain more than sufficient to continue
lake snow production. However... With loss of synoptic moisture and
lift and the subsequent lowering of inversion heights... Expect
overall intensity of lake snow will diminish. We may see that
dominant banded structure maintain and possibly become better
defined once diurnal disruption ends with sunset. Will certainly
need to keep an eye on this for the potential of even higher snow
amounts. Will definitely maintain all headlines as we head into
tonight... And do expect a continued diminishing trend overnight as
high pressure begins to build into the region. Expect another 2 to 5
inches for the advisory areas thru tonight.

Short term (Wednesday through Friday)
issued at 313 pm est Tue nov 13 2018

Lake effect ending then turning milder...

high impact weather potential... None expected.

Lingering cyclonic flow and over lake instability will likely lead
to more snow showers in the morning across the snow belts of eastern
upper and northwest lower. Perhaps an inch or so of additional
accumulation. High pressure and associated drier air then move into
the region from the west Wednesday afternoon. This should put an end
to any lingering lake effect snow showers. As the high shifts off to
our east, milder air will stream into the region Thursday. Gusty
southerly winds will make it difficult to ascertain just how mild it
actually is but highs of well into the 30s to the lower 40s are
expected. An alberta clipper will move by to our north early Friday
and drag a cold front across the region during the day bringing more
cold air and chances for mainly snow showers.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 313 pm est Tue nov 13 2018

Turning unseasonably cold again with more snow shower chances...

high impact weather potential... Accumulating lake effect snow
possible Friday night into Saturday.

The next shot of arctic air advects in Friday night into the
weekend. More lake effect snow showers are expected especially
Friday night into Saturday. Another surge of arctic air and perhaps
snow showers follows for Monday into Tuesday. It still looks likely
that milder air (maybe even some rain) will arrive during the middle
and later stages of next week.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 702 pm est Tue nov 13 2018
tongue of very cold air has overspread northern michigan in the
last 12 hours or so, kicking up the lake effect snow machine. Some
heavier snow shower bands continue to impact pln tvc this evening
although snow showers have shown a diminishing trend in the last
couple of hours. But, snow showers will continue to impact those
terminal sites through the evening occasionally producing MVFR
vsbys.

Diminishing snow shower trend will continue tonight with snow
showers largely expected to end on Wednesday returning to solid
vfr.

Marine
Issued at 313 pm est Tue nov 13 2018
winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria in all nearshore
areas thru tonight before diminishing on Wednesday as high pressure
briefly builds into the region. W NW flow lake effect snow showers
will also persist thru tonight... But will begin to diminish late
tonight and Wednesday as subsidence and drier air bring this lake
effect snow event to a close.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until 5 am est Wednesday for miz019-021-
022-027-028.

Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est Wednesday for miz008.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Wednesday for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Wednesday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Wednesday for lsz321-322.

Update... Ba
near term... Mr
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Ba
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 17 mi39 min NW 14 G 22 24°F 1030.5 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi31 min WNW 8 G 14 24°F 8°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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N4
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI5 mi23 minW 910.00 miOvercast23°F12°F65%1031.8 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi24 minWNW 610.00 miOvercast24°F10°F56%1029.8 hPa

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN3NW7
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NW12NW11W9W10W8--W14W9
1 day agoW8W9W12W14W12W13W11W7W8W10W10W10NW11W8NW7W8W4W3CalmE3CalmE3CalmS3
2 days agoCalmCalmNE43S4E55SE5S4SE3CalmCalmSE4S4SE33SW5SW5SW4SW3E4E4E4W12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.