Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:03AMSunset 6:55PM Thursday October 19, 2017 5:22 AM EDT (09:22 UTC) Moonrise 6:42AMMoonset 6:17PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 202 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Today..West winds 15 to 20 knots backing southwest 10 to 15 knots late in the day. Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet late in the day.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:201710191600;;074648 FZUS53 KGRR 190602 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 202 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-191600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee, MI
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location: 44.25, -86.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 190750
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
350 am edt Thu oct 19 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 348 am edt Thu oct 19 2017
high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
early this morning, deep low pressure was crossing far NRN ontario,
with it's associated dry cold front pressing through NRN lake
michigan. Atmosphere is way too dry for any rain threat (less
than 0.75" pwat), and as thought, nothing on radar. Outside of a
band of higher cloud and scattered strato cu, clouds were not
impressive either. We did still have a tight pressure gradient
around with gusts still 20-30 mph in many areas, but that will be
relaxing over the next handful of hours as well. The winds were
keeping temperatures up, with readings in the middle 50s to lower
60s.

The cold front will cross all of NRN michigan by daybreak, with
higher pressure sliding in by evening. The gradient will remain tight
enough across eastern upper and mainly areas north of m-72, for
gusty conditions again to around 25 mph. Once the frontal clouds
pass over the next few hours, there will be a period of cirrus
floating by in advance of some weaker vorticity seen in the fast wnw
flow aloft. Trends heading into the afternoon will be for sunny
skies however. The next low pressure system will be developing in
western canada by late tonight. Mid level heights rise while a warm
front lifts toward the NRN mississippi valley and central canada.

Could be some additional high clouds, but all-in-all, a rather clear
night. The pressure gradient will gradually tighten again, keeping
temperatures from falling to their potential. While highs today will
be in the low to mid 60s most areas, lows tonight will largely be 40-
45f. Maybe some upper 30s in low areas in weaker gradient near
saginaw bay.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 348 am edt Thu oct 19 2017

Warm, dry stretch nearing its end...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... High and dry sunny pattern continues on
Friday with strong subsidence from a highly amplified upper ridge
overhead and a strong surface high over the ohio valley extending
into northern michigan. As these features slide east of the area
Friday night into Saturday, the pattern will eventually begin to
break down. This will lead to a gradual increase in clouds on
Saturday, though still expect at least partly sunny skies. Not out
of the question that an isolated shower pops up over eastern upper
Saturday afternoon as weak isentropic lift and some mid level energy
move in, but it will take some time before low levels moisten up.

Southerly flow - somewhat breezy both afternoons - will draw
increasing warmth into the region with highs a good 15 degrees
warmer than normal for the third week of october. Most of northern
lower will climb into the low 70s both days with mid to upper 60s
for eastern upper.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 348 am edt Thu oct 19 2017
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Upper ridge will break down and slide off to the east Saturday night
as a deep shortwave trough approaches from over the plains. This
trough will also bring a cold front into the area on Sunday, with a
plume of higher moisture streaming in ahead of the front as early as
Saturday night. A weakening axis of instability Saturday night will
creep in with very meager elevated cape. Not looking like any decent
chance of thunder for the apx forecast area, but something to
monitor. Highest chance of showers looks to come Sunday afternoon
and night with the passage of the cold front.

Sunday's cold front will lead to a slight decline in temperatures
for Monday, but a stronger cold front will be right on its heels for
Monday night. Models split on just how cold of an airmass this front
will usher in for the middle part of next week. Latest runs seem to
be trending not as cold. Wouldn't rule out some lake enhancement,
but the 19.00z ECMWF and canadian show a wrapped up surface low
lifting into the region with 850 temps only dropping to maybe around
-2c by late Wednesday. GFS is colder, but as previous shift alluded
the chance for first snowflakes of the season is still in question.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1147 pm edt Wed oct 18 2017
cold front crossing the TAF locations tonight, bringing nothing
more than a band of mid and high level clouds along with it. Gusty
southwest winds and off-the-deck wind shear to continue before
frontal passage, with winds lowering some as they become more
westerly after frontal passage. Clear skies are expected again
today. Next round of low level wind shear is possible later this
evening.

Marine
Issued at 348 am edt Thu oct 19 2017
gales, for the most part have ended across the nearshore waters,
but advisory level gusts are still fairly widespread. With the
gradient staying relatively tight across the NRN portions of lakes
michigan and huron, as well as whitefish bay, these waters will
have to see continued headlines. Others can fade after today.

Additional advisories anticipated later tonight into the weekend
with possible gales Saturday night into Sunday, as another deep
low pressure moves into central canada. There will be a rain
chance Sunday into Sunday night.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lhz345>348.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
lhz349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz323-
344>346.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lmz341-342.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lsz322.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lsz321.

Near term... Smd
short term... Mk
long term... Mk
aviation... mb
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 1 mi43 min W 18 G 21 61°F 1014.6 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 17 mi43 min W 18 G 21 60°F 1014.9 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi53 min W 12 G 16 61°F 50°F
45024 23 mi33 min W 16 G 21 61°F 61°F5 ft1015.3 hPa51°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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G21

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI5 mi27 minW 1310.00 miFair59°F46°F62%1015.2 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi28 minW 710.00 miFair59°F47°F65%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE33NE36S9S13
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SW11W12
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1 day ago3S3E3E3SW7SW9
G18
SW11SW9
G14
W12W116SW9S5CalmCalmE3CalmCalm3--NE4SE3E4E3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE3S8W6SW14
G17
SW7
G16
SW7SW9SW6S3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmE4E4E4E3E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.