Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 7:59PM Thursday March 21, 2019 11:30 AM EDT (15:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:55PMMoonset 7:29AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 412 Pm Est Fri Jan 25 2019
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect through Saturday morning...
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 2 to 5 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of snow showers. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 3 to 5 feet. This is the last nearshore marine forecast (nshgrr) issuance for the season. The nshgrr will again be issued around april 1st 2019, or as conditions warrant.
LMZ849 Expires:201901260415;;919599 FZUS53 KGRR 252113 CCA NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast...corrected National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 412 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-260415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee, MI
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location: 44.25, -86.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 211522
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1122 am edt Thu mar 21 2019

Update
Issued at 1111 am edt Thu mar 21 2019
fog has been slow to dissipate across the region. Satellite
imagery indicates much of the region socked in... Except for
southeastern counties which have partially broken out of the low
crud. Expect the fog to continue to slowly lift through the
afternoon hours. A mix of drizzle and light snow may arrive later
this afternoon across eastern upper as a short wave cold front
approach the area. High temperatures only in the upper 30s and
lower 40s.

Near term (today and tonight)
issued at 345 am edt Thu mar 21 2019

Another round of light precip tonight...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: overnight composite analysis reveals
our closed mid level low sliding southward along the long axis of
lake michigan western lower michigan. Attending surface low is
across southern lower michigan. Deformation forcing and associated
light snow rain mix continues to fade across the CWA early this
morning. Weak low level flow remains and we've seen a fair amount
of fog mist through the overnight hours.

Meanwhile, larger scale troughing of course lingers across eastern
canada and even a large part of the eastern conus, downstream from
weakening omega blocking over the western-central conus. Yet
another short-wave attending surface low and developing cold front
is diving southeastward through manitoba into ontario. This next
system will be rolling down through the great lakes later this
afternoon through tonight.

Primary forecast concerns: precip chances type tonight with this
next wave.

Today: first off, light precip has pretty much come to an end
(still a few blips on radar as of this writing). But fog will
linger through a good part of the morning and i'll need to extend
fog out a bit longer than what we currently have in there.

Otherwise, sharp short-wave trough axis will slip on to our
south east as we go through the morning with brief short-wave
ridging nosing into northern michigan into the afternoon. Lots of
low level moisture cloud cover spans the region up into canada
which will lead to an overall cloudy day after the fog diminishes.

Perhaps some downwind downsloping areas in the E SE counties sees
a little bit of sunshine. But given the lingering cloud cover i
have kept our MAX temps on the lower side, colder that mos
guidance.

Tonight: aforementioned short-wave will dive down through northern
michigan late this afternoon through the evening hours. This will
drive the attending cold front down into eastern upper michigan by
early evening, and through northern lower michigan through the
course of the evening hours. Secondary cold front and push of
rather substantially colder air follows overnight into Friday.

System is moisture starved overall, particularly this evening with
passage of the initial front surface trough, with low level
saturated layers just getting into the neg 10c ice activation
temp regime. So, initial precip may end up more dz fzdz than
anything. Deeper moisture does rotate down into northern michigan
overnight ahead of the secondary front and will probably lead to
some light snow light accumulations overnight into Friday morning.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 345 am edt Thu mar 21 2019
high impact weather potential: none.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: chances of lingering precip
early Friday.

Pattern synopsis forecast... A weak clipper system and upper level
trough along with synoptic moisture will be exiting east from
northern michigan while a large area of high pressure centered over
the northern great plains and associated dry air ridge all the way
to the gulf coast. Said high pressure will continue to build into
the great lakes through the remainder of the forecast period.

Behind said exiting clipper system, north-northwest winds filter in
cooler air... With highs only reaching into the upper 20s to low 30s.

Lingering moisture on the back side of this system and 850mb
temperatures of -12 to -14c will be enough to have some light lake
effect snow showers over portions of eastern upper and northwest
lower michigan... .As well as the lake huron shoreline of northeast
lower. Very light snow accumulations will occur under these snow
showers through the early part of Friday... Until the large area of
high pressure and much drier air takes hold of the great lakes
region and provides precipitation-free weather and mostly sunny
skies through at least Saturday. The tightening pressure gradient
between the exiting low pressure and building high pressure off to
our west will produce strong north-northwest winds Friday through
Friday evening... Before diminishing as the gradient relaxes as high
pressure becomes centered over the forecast area. Wind gusts of 25-
30 mph will be common across northern michigan... With the strongest
winds along the shorelines of lake michigan and lake huron. Winds
will become light and more westerly by Saturday morning. Light winds
and sunny skies will provide a much warmer day Saturday... With
temperatures moderating into the upper 30s to low 40s.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 345 am edt Thu mar 21 2019
high impact weather potential: none
widely varying temperatures with limited chances for precipitation
through the period. The great lakes and upper midwest will be
largely dominated by high pressure during the forecast period which
will limit pcpn chances into the beginning of next week. However,
there is a small chance for pcpn Sunday night, the result of a weak
boundary dropping south over the state. Mild temperatures are
expected through the weekend due to weak upper ridging, with a
return to colder temperatures early next week as mid lvl temps fall
back to -12c in a developing upper trough.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 637 am edt Thu mar 21 2019
solid ifr cloud cover is draped across northern michigan along
with areas of locally dense fog. Vsbys will improve this morning
while CIGS increase to MVFR as we go through the day.

Another low pressure system will slide down through the region
tonight into Friday. This will bring another round of light
precipitation to the region and keep things on the MVFR side of
things through Friday morning.

Marine
Issued at 345 am edt Thu mar 21 2019
light winds waves in the early going of the forecast. Another area
of low pressure will drop down through northern michigan late this
afternoon and tonight. As the system departs, gusty northwesterly
winds develop later tonight and persist through the day Friday.

Plan to hoist a gale watch for parts of the lake michigan and lake
huron nearshore areas, with small craft advisories for the rest.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Gale watch from late tonight through Friday evening for lhz348-
349.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 4 am edt Saturday
for lhz345>347.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt Friday
for lmz323-341-342.

Gale watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
lmz344>346.

Ls... None.

Update... As
near term... Ba
short term... Tl
long term... Tl
aviation... Ba
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi49 min NNW 4.1 G 7 36°F 34°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI5 mi35 minNW 41.75 miFog/Mist35°F35°F100%1017.7 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi36 minNNW 60.50 miFog36°F35°F97%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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S106S4S6SE5SE4E4E5E4E4E4NE3NE4NW3CalmCalm3NW5NW5NW4
1 day agoW8W9W11W13W12W9S8S7S4S3--S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S5Calm6S8
G14
2 days agoSW5W8W7W10
G15
SW7SW9W7W7W3CalmSW3CalmE3CalmE4E3E3--E4E3----CalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.