Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 6:29PM Saturday February 24, 2018 10:42 PM EST (03:42 UTC) Moonrise 12:44PMMoonset 2:56AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1107 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers until midday, then snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 20 knots backing west 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 6 to 8 feet late in the day. Waves are for ice free areas. This is the last nearshore marine forecast (nshgrr) issuance for the season. The nshgrr will again be issued around april 1st 2018, or as conditions warrant.
LMZ849 Expires:201801161015;;514449 FZUS53 KGRR 160407 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1107 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-161015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee, MI
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location: 44.25, -86.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 242333
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
633 pm est Sat feb 24 2018

Near term (tonight through Sunday)
issued at 331 pm est Sat feb 24 2018

Rapid increase in precip chances tonight... Then strong winds late
tonight and Sunday...

high impact weather potential... Mixed precipitation tonight... Mainly
across eastern upper michigan... Causing hazardous travel. Strong
winds developing late tonight and Sunday.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Large area of strong high pressure is
centered over the northern great lakes region this afternoon.

Warm stationary front running from texas along the southern part of
the ohio valley to just off the new england coast continues to
produce a long line of convection along and north of this boundary.

Rapidly deepening low pressure is starting to push NE out of texas
toward the mid mississippi valley... Resulting in a large area of
widespread precip north and east of the low center. Additional
scattered shower activity is developing further NE of this mainly
low and precip shield over far SW portions of the great lakes
region. Closer to home... Much of our CWA has seen quite a bit of
sunshine this afternoon as skies have temporarily cleared.

However... Northern edge of increasing low mid moisture clouds from
the developing upstream system has reached our SW cwa... And will
continue to spread thru our CWA during late afternoon early evening.

As we head into tonight and Sunday... Widespread precip will begin to
increase from SW to NE across 00z... With our entire CWA receiving
widespread precip by 06z. Model soundings temp profiles still
suggest a brief period of mixed precip during the onset across
northern lower michigan before becoming all rain... But a more
extended period of snow mixed precip across eastern upper michigan
thru much of the event. Precip event itself will be rather quick-
hitting... With precip ending across northern lower michigan by
around 12z... And across eastern upper michigan after 15z. Still
expect new snow amounts across eastern upper michigan will be
between 1 and 3 inches thru the event... With up to a tenth of an
inch of ice accumulation possible as well. Will certainly maintain
the winter wx advisory in effect for this area beginning at 06z.

The next concern is strengthening wind speeds late tonight and
Sunday as the low center rapidly deepens as it lifts northward along
the length of lake michigan overnight and thru ontario Sunday.

Appears that locations thru the straits area as well as much of far
northern lower michigan will see wind gusts marginally reach wind
advisory criteria on Sunday. In coordination with mqt... Will extend
the winter wx advisory for eastern upper michigan thru 18z as some
mixed precip will still be ongoing during the morning as the winds
strengthen to wind advisory criteria as well. So will handle this
entire event with one headline that will be extended into early
afternoon. For far northern lower michigan... Aside from a brief
period of mixed precip during the onset... Majority of precip type
should be plain rain with strong WAA taking place along with
strong deep moisture advection into the region ahead of the low.

Will issue a wind advisory for locations in northern lower michigan
along and north of a line from leelanau county to glr to pzq
beginning at 12z and ending at 21z.

Temps will be a bit of a roller coaster ride over the next 24 hours
or so. Temps will initially drop off this evening before warming
overnight as strong WAA commences. Temps will then cool again Sunday
morning with some CAA in the wake of the departing low... Before
again rebounding into the mid 30s to upper 30s across eastern upper
michigan and into the low to mid 40s across northern lower michigan
in the afternoon.

Short term (Sunday night through Tuesday)
issued at 331 pm est Sat feb 24 2018

A break in the action...

primary forecast concern... None.

Short medium range models are in good agreement that northern
michigan will be in between low pressure to the north and high
pressure to the south. This is expected to result in decreasing
winds (though still breezy Sunday night) and mainly precipitation
free conditions across the forecast area. The one possible exception
to this is near whitefish point where there will be a slight chance
for snow showers Sunday night as a short wave moves through the
flow. Otherwise, it is expected to remain mild through this period
with readings between 10 and 15 degrees above 30 year climatological
averages.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 331 pm est Sat feb 24 2018
primary focus in the extended remains the late week storm system.

There has been a slight shift southward in the track, as expected
yesterday. It was not a huge shift, and we would still be looking at
a situation of daytime rain transitioning to snow overnight.

Operational guidance has come into a bit of agreement with the
strength and location of the closed upper level low associated with
the system. Can certainly see some weakening comparing the magnitude
of QG forcing over the area between yesterday and today, as both pva
and warm advection have lessened with the southward adjustment. The
strength of this upper low still seems a bit overdone, and ensembles
certainly have a good bit of divergence with it lowering overall
confidence. I don't know that this will shift far enough south to
miss us, but I still expect to see a bit more adjustment south with
this as both the upper and surface low weaken some more.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 625 pm est Sat feb 24 2018
a deepening area of low pressure will quickly track thru the mid
mississippi valley this evening... Through eastern lake superior
Sunday morning and into eastern ontario by Sunday evening.

Widespread precip will develop from SW to NE across northern
michigan beginning late this evening... Continuing overnight and
then coming to an end Sunday morning as the surface low pulls
away. Outside of tvc mbl, precip will be of the mixed variety
during the onset, but is expected to change over to plain rain
overnight. Total ice accumulation, maybe a hundredth or two, and
snowfall of a tenth or two at pln apn.

Llws will develop tonight as both surface winds and winds aloft
quickly strengthen around the center of this rapidly deepening
system. Surface winds on the backside of the low will switch to
the SW and strengthen to 20 to 30 kts with some higher gusts
expected, particularly at pln, where up to 45 mph is possible.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 1 pm est Sunday for miz008-
015.

Wind advisory from 7 am to 4 pm est Sunday for miz016>022.

Near term... Mr
short term... As
long term... Am
aviation... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 1 mi62 min ESE 14 G 26 35°F 1006.4 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 17 mi51 min E 16 G 27 35°F 1006.4 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi42 min E 13 G 21 35°F 28°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI5 mi46 minE 13 G 2710.00 miOvercast34°F28°F79%1008.6 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi47 minESE 14 G 217.00 miOvercast34°F30°F87%1005.8 hPa

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8NW8NW6N4N3CalmN3NE4NE3NE4E7E7E7SE6E7E10E7E9E13
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1 day agoE11E9
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W8W9W8W11W10W11W10
2 days agoE3E3E4NE3E5E4E4E4E3NE4NE4E10E8E7NE6E7NE3E6E8E5E7E10E7E9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.