Tuesday, June27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 9:30PM Tuesday June 27, 2017 1:21 PM EDT (17:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:14AMMoonset 11:21PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1051 Am Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
Rest of today..West winds 10 to 15 knots backing southwest late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South winds to 30 knots. Partly Sunny with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms until midday, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:201706272115;;904494 FZUS53 KGRR 271451 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1051 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-272115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.25, -86.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 271432
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1032 am edt Tue jun 27 2017

Update
Issued at 1032 am edt Tue jun 27 2017
pretty quiet day in store with minimal updates. Sunny skies at the
moment with just some patchy mid level cloud trying to make it
into NW lower, with increasing higher level cloud coming in from
the north, associated with a weak shortwave trough. Main weather
today, which is not much, will be a relatively high based CU field
developing with some of that higher cloud coming in. Lake breeze
convergence in interior eastern upper and far NE lower will have
most of the cumulus. This is also an area where there is a small
chance for a few showers popping up this afternoon. After
modifying soundings (too high of sfc dew points in model data),
maybe 200-300 MLCAPE 700-900 SBCAPE is revealed, which usually
results in little to no thunder. Left in the possibility for it
across far NE lower. Warmer day than yesterday with highs in the
upper 60s to lower half of the 70s. Warmest readings in
downsloping areas of NE lower.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 344 am edt Tue jun 27 2017

Warmer temperatures today few lake breeze induced showers???...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast: midnight composite chart shows a weak
area of low pressure (~1011-1012mb) over southeast ontario... Trough
axis extends south across lake huron into northwest ohio northern
indiana. 1021mb high was centered over southwest minnesota
northwest iowa. Tight compact vorticity center in water vapor
imagery spinning away from southeast lower michigan early this
morning toward the lower great lakes... Also appears to be a smaller
secondary vorticity center over northern lake huron. Higher
heights ridging upstream across the plains. Band of rain showers in
the process of departing northeast lower michigan early this
morning... With clearing skies working into the forecast area from
the north. Isentropic ascent warm advection across far northwest
ontario driving clouds showers (and some convection) north of lake
superior.

Upstream surface high will ridge southeast into the ohio valley
today... At least allowing rising pressures and increasingly
anticyclonic low level flow into the upper lakes. Low-mid level
warm advection pattern already underway as boundary layer flow backs
more southwesterly overnight as surface high moves into the mid
atlantic and pressures fall over the plains midwest.

Primary forecast concerns: any shower chances along lake breeze
boundaries this afternoon? Lake breezes expected across mackinac
southern chippewa counties (colliding lake superior and lake
michigan huron breezes?) and probably a boundary hanging tight near
the lake huron shore in northeast lower. Like we've seen over the
past several afternoons... Instability will be pretty thin with deep
mixing resulting in a fairly high-based cumulus field. Better
signal for any precip is across northeast lower... Potentially
stronger convergence along eastern upper lake breeze can't be
ignored... But overall probabilities are pretty weak. Otherwise a
warmer afternoon is on tap for most areas (save for the alcona
iosco arenac group of counties where more Sun and downsloping west
winds pushed temperatures up around 70 Monday afternoon)... With more
widespread 60s-lower 70s expected this afternoon (though still below
the mid-upper 70s normals for the last week of june). Dry and
clear partly cloudy for tonight... With lows in the upper 40s and
50s.

Short term (Wednesday through Thursday)
issued at 344 am edt Tue jun 27 2017

Heavy rain potential for portions of northern mi Wed night...

high impact weather potential... Heavy rainfall and possibly some
flooding impacts Wednesday evening into Thursday, particularly
across eastern upper and tip of the mitt.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Midlevel shortwave energy that just came
ashore the pacific northwest this evening will track across the
northern conus, reaching the upper midwest on Wednesday. Meanwhile,
surface high pressure will drift from the ohio valley to just off
the mid-atlantic coast by Wednesday evening, progressively opening
up the gulf for moisture to surge northward into the upper great
lakes. The eastward tracking shortwave (and another shortwave just
to the north hugging the canadian border) will interact with this
moisture feed (pwats approaching 1.8 inches, +1 to 2 standard
deviations) as it induces cyclogenesis over the central northern
plains. The resultant more southern surface low is progged to track
from southern mn Wednesday morning through the upper peninsula by
daybreak Thursday, though models still vary on its exact track. Waa
and isentropic lift out ahead of this low will overspread northern
michigan as early as daybreak Wednesday but will strengthen heading
through the afternoon into the evening as a warm front lifts across
the area, settling over eastern upper Wednesday night. Robust fgen
forcing will accompany this front as it lifts into eastern upper,
and additional forcing may come into play from the right entrance
region of a 100+ knot upper jet streak. Rain will thus overspread
northern michigan from SW to NE from mid-afternoon through early
evening. Models have sped up the approach of a sw-ne oriented 50-60
knot llj, now showing it nosing into northern mi late Wednesday
afternoon through the evening. Strong moisture transport will
accompany this LLJ with its leading edge tight gradient looking to
take aim anywhere between the tip of the mitt and eastern upper,
which is the expected area of heaviest rainfall. Warm cloud depths
will range from 3.5 to 3.8 km Wednesday evening during the main part
of this event. Nearly saturated columns through the mid levels will
yield nearly moist adiabatic lapse rates. This will lead to mucapes
up to ~700 j kg (tall skinny elevated CAPE profiles in forecast
soundings), so there may very well be some embedded thunderstorms
leading to locally enhanced heavy rainfall.

Heaviest rain will depart northeast lower and far eastern upper
around or shortly after daybreak Thursday as the LLJ moves east. The
surface low will likely linger over southern ontario for much of the
day as its associated shortwave aloft shears itself out. So, chances
for scattered showers storms will linger but gradually diminish
through the day as slightly drier air encroaches from the west.

Due to strong waa, temperatures will climb into the low to mid 70s
across the area on Wednesday. It will be a tad cooler across eastern
upper and tip of the mitt on Thursday (highs around 70) given a
greater likelihood of lingering clouds and rain there. Across the
rest of northern lower, temperatures will climb into the mid 70s,
even upper 80s near saginaw bay.

Primary forecast concerns... Given recent wet pattern across northern
mi, heavy rainfall potential will obviously be the biggest forecast
concern. Expect the LLJ will play the biggest role in producing
heavy rain, so precisely where it orients itself will determine
which area sees the greatest rainfall amounts. Pinpointing that
remains a challenge at this time, and unfortunately there are still
some significant model differences with regard to the intensity,
track, and timing of this system. With the 00z model run, better
sampling is starting to get ingested into the models now that the
driving shortwave energy has come ashore on the west coast. Expect
models will start to come into better agreement on the finer details
of this system with today's subsequent runs.

That being said, confidence is increasing that the heaviest rain
will fall somewhere across a portion of eastern upper and tip of the
mitt, with considerably less rainfall heading south towards saginaw
bay. Wpc has placed all of northern michigan under a slight risk for
excessive rainfall through 12z Thursday. Given recent rainfall and
meteorological factors detailed above, think there will likely be
some rapid runoff into area streams rivers up there, but plenty of
finer details still need to be ironed out later today.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 344 am edt Tue jun 27 2017
high impact weather potential... Thunderstorms possible Friday and
Saturday.

Thursday night looks to offer a brief break from rainfall across
northern michigan before another round of rain arrives on Friday. A
frontal boundary will stretch from southern iowa to the thumb Friday
morning, and a developing low pressure system is progged to ride
northeast along the front, tracking through northern michigan Friday
afternoon evening with another decent shot at a soaking rain,
especially for northern lower. The first part of the weekend looks
fairly active as well as a cold front slowly drops south across the
area. Sunday is looking dry for much of the area as drier air
filters in behind the front. Some models show potential for rain on
Monday, but confidence is low this far out. Temperatures look to be
near or just a tad below normal through the period.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1148 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017
rain and MVFR CIGS leaving overnight, thenVFR.

Low pressure will depart northern lake huron, while high pressure
moves from iowa into the oh valley. Band of showers will pivot
se-ward out of northern lower mi over the next few hours. MVFR
cigs will depart with the precip.VFR thereafter.

Mainly a NW breeze thru the forecast, though backing a bit more
west by late Tuesday.

Marine
Issued at 344 am edt Tue jun 27 2017
some lingering gustiness along the northeast lower nearshore zones
early this morning (primarily between the straits and thunder
bay)... Should subside later this morning with some lake breeze
components developing along the upper peninsula nearshore zones as
well as along lake huron especially from thunder bay south this
afternoon. Winds will become more southwest tonight and increase on
lake michigan... With gusty south winds Wednesday likely requiring
small craft advisories within lake michigan nearshore zones.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Smd
near term... Jpb
short term... Mek
long term... Mek
aviation... Jz
marine... Jpb


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 1 mi41 min WSW 8.9 G 11 59°F 1018.3 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 17 mi41 min SW 7 G 8.9 60°F 1019 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi63 min W 5.1 G 8.9 60°F 53°F
45024 23 mi41 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 59°F 62°F2 ft1018.5 hPa53°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
Last
24hr
W10
G16
W7
G13
W8
G13
W8
G12
NW5
G10
W7
NW6
G9
NW4
G10
N5
G11
NE2
G5
NW4
N1
N1
W6
G9
W4
G8
W8
G11
W8
G12
W5
G9
W5
G8
W4
G8
W4
W6
G9
W4
G9
SW2
G5
1 day
ago
W7
G11
W6
G9
W4
G7
W2
G5
SW3
G8
SW4
G7
SW3
G7
SW3
G8
W3
NW2
W8
G13
W8
G12
W14
G18
W8
G14
NW9
G13
W8
G12
W7
G14
W7
G13
W9
G12
W9
G15
W9
G13
W10
G15
W8
G14
W7
G14
2 days
ago
W7
G12
SW3
G9
SW3
G6
W9
G13
W6
G9
W5
G9
SW5
G11
SW2
G5
W10
W7
G11
W4
G8
W10
G19
W11
G16
N5
G8
NE1
W10
G14
W6
G13
W6
G11
W4
G13
W10
G14
W8
G15
W8
G17
W10
G17
W9
G14

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI5 mi26 minW 810.00 miFair64°F53°F68%1019.8 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi27 minWSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F55°F77%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
Last 24hrW11W15
G18
W12W13W10W9W8NW7N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3E4CalmW5W5W8SW5W8
1 day agoNW11W11
G16
W95W5SW10SW3W8W7CalmE3W8W10W11W11W14W10W11W13W15
G19
W13W11W16
G19
W14
G18
2 days agoW9W12
G19
W10W12
G17
W12W8W6NW5CalmCalmCalmNW9
G14
N3W8NE3S3W7W9SW7W11
G15
W11W9W14NW11

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.