Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 8:46PM Saturday April 29, 2017 1:32 AM EDT (05:32 UTC) Moonrise 8:27AMMoonset 11:37PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 947 Pm Edt Fri Apr 28 2017
Rest of tonight..North winds 5 to 15 knots veering northeast 15 to 20 knots toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy with isolated light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Scattered light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Scattered light showers in the evening, then numerous light showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 25 knots. Periods of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
LMZ849 Expires:201704290915;;424249 FZUS53 KGRR 290147 NSHGRR NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 947 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ849-290915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee, MI
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location: 44.25, -86.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 290337
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1137 pm edt Fri apr 28 2017

Update
Issued at 1013 pm edt Fri apr 28 2017
evening surface analysis reveals an ill-defined front/surface
trough stretching from the saginaw bay area down through
chicago... Slowly sagging southward with time. Upper jet axis
stretches from the midwest across lower michigan into canada... And
subtle short wave moving eastward through central wisconsin. Short
wave forcing... Interacting with some hints of subtle deformation/
frontogenesis occurring north of the surface front... Has lead to
narrow axis of precipitation sliding out of central wisconsin and
into parts of northern and central lower michigan this evening.

Mainly light rain/sprinkles... With CIGS generally above 5k
feet... But mbl/cad/gov have all been reporting -ra for the last
few hours and there are some small pockets of better radar
returns. mbl has measured 0.01" last hour.

Rest of tonight: narrow axis of light rain will slide through the
southern half of the cwa... Exiting before sunrise... And enough to
wet the ground in some areas. Have tweaked pops just a bit to push
light rain chances just a little further northward and increased
pops to high chance. Didn't push pops into the likely category
however since many areas probably will not see measurable precip
with this.

Near term (tonight through Saturday)
issued at 401 pm edt Fri apr 28 2017

Staying cool with small chances for more showers...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: chilly-weather producing low pressure
continues to pull northeast away from the area this afternoon. Per
the usual for northern michigan, system backside low level moisture
lingered quite a bit longer than initially anticipated, as plenty of
cloud cover lingered across the north half of the area into early
this afternoon (still mostly cloudy across the tip of the mitt and
eastern upper michigan). Different story down near saginaw bay, with
plenty of sunshine most of the day and much milder conditions.

Current system is part of broad troughing now well estabilished
across much of the northern half of the country. Next wave already
rotating northeast within this troughing back across the central
plains. Large warm air advection driven wing of rain running out
ahead of this system through the corn belt. This wave will largely
shear out overnight, with the northern extent of the WAA wing doing
the same. A surge of somewhat drier air follows this system to start
the weekend.

Primary forecast concerns: cloud and temperature trends through
Saturday. Addressing that light shower potential tonight.

Details: despite the ominous appearance of upstream radar showing
widespread rain, not overly convinced we will see much of this
activity survive as it heads further northeast into our area this
evening as parent wave shears out. Think some very light
rain/sprinkles are a definite possibility for at least the south
half of northern lower this evening, but with very minimal rainfall
amounts. Conditions look to remain dry north of the big bridge.

Drier northerly flow becomes increasingly established heading
through the overnight, ending what rain threat there is in the
process. Despite the cool start, the return of more clouds
(especially northern lower) and maintenance of light winds will
prevent temperatures from falling too much, with readings largely
remaining in the 30s.

That dry northerly flow further increases Saturday morning as high
pressure rotates through ontario. Active baroclinic zone to our
south becomes even more so during the day along and north of a
developing ohio valley warm front. Some of this activity may make a
run into southern sections of the area (mostly along and south of m-
55) by very late in the afternoon. This rain will be the beginnings
of a rather long duration and potentially heavy rain event that
looks to unfold Saturday night through Monday. More details on that
event can be found in the short term section to follow. Otherwise,
actually expecting to see quite a bit of at least filtered sunshine
on Saturday.

Short term (Saturday night through Monday)
issued at 401 pm edt Fri apr 28 2017

Soaker Saturday night into Sunday night...

high impact weather potential... Rain could be heavy at times with
the warm advection on Saturday night into Sunday night
pattern synopsis/forecast... Saturday night the warm front is set up
over lower michigan with the GFS and ECMWF in line with the general
position and strength of the baroclinic zone. As the sfc low moves
into missouri, the southerly flow is expected to increase across the
baroclinic zone which is expected to be roughly from the
michigan/indiana border to the m-32. 500 mb pattern shows difluence
aloft with jet streaks being ejected from the 500 mb low and into
the upper great lakes along the warm front. Sunday, the models moves
the axis of the heaviest from downstate into the central part of n
lower by 00z. The issue to watch will be the convection that will
break out near the sfc low. If it moves too far east, it could
disrupt the southerly flow into the rain, and we could end up with
what has happened the last couple of possible heavy rain systems. At
this point, the pwat with the soundings from Sunday morning to
Monday morning hold onto values around or just above an 1.00" with
the model soundings over the 90% threshold of the median pwat
sounding climatology. The sfc and 500 mb low begin to stack up and
the models expect heavy rain into Sunday night/Monday morning before
the cold front moves into the upper great lakes. The cold front
moves through the forecast area by 18z, and the 700-500 mb dry slot
as well. This would end the heaviest rain for the region. There
could be period of nothing, and then drizzle for the afternoon.

Primary forecast concerns... As has been pointed out by some in the
public, we have had systems look good the last couple of weeks,
especially this last one, and then we get little rain. The things
going for it is that models, and the ensembles are in basic
agreement with the means around the 1.5 to 2.0" amounts and the
spreads being between 0.10 to 3.00". The ensembles are clumping
around the means so think that the most likely 48 hour amounts will
be 1.00 to 2.50" across the forecast area.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 401 pm edt Fri apr 28 2017
models are in pretty good agreement (at the moment) with the
tracking of this deep center of low pressure next week. From Monday
night through Tuesday... This low will lift from wisconsin, right
over the u.P. And skirt just south of hudson bay. So at the start of
our period... We'll be transitioning from the good slug of gulf
moisture that brought rainfall Monday and first half of Tuesday... To
wrap around moisture for the second half of Tuesday and Tuesday
night. During this time... Temperatures will drop low enough that we
could see some wet snowflakes mixing in... Particularly in the higher
terrain of interior locations. Moisture then strips out on
Wednesday, with temperatures beginning to moderate on Thursday... And
nearly climo on Friday.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1137 pm edt Fri apr 28 2017

Vfr conditions through Saturday...

a period of lower cloud cover (remainingVFR) will slide across
northern lower michigan tonight, as a small area of low pressure
moves through. Some light rainfall is possible, but nothing
substantial. Precip ends and cloud cover thins out for Saturday.

Marine
Issued at 401 pm edt Fri apr 28 2017
winds will continue to diminish through this evening as they
veer more northerly with time. Winds will remain with a decidedly
northward component through Saturday, increasing in speed some later
tonight and Saturday morning. May see the return of some isolated
sca producing winds gusts during this period, especially down near
manistee. Looking ahead, wet and cool weather is expected for the
first half of next week with SCA conditions likely returning.

Apx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Tba
near term... Msb
short term... Jsl
long term... Kab
aviation... Tba
marine... Msb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 1 mi52 min N 12 G 13 44°F 1019 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 17 mi52 min N 7 G 8.9 43°F 1018.3 hPa
45024 23 mi32 min N 9.7 G 14 43°F 44°F1 ft1017.9 hPa (+0.9)40°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee, Manistee County-Blacker Airport, MI5 mi36 minNNW 710.00 miOvercast42°F39°F92%1020.4 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi38 minN 310.00 miOvercast42°F40°F94%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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W14W12W9W6NW5NE3CalmN3CalmNE3NW7
1 day agoCalmCalmE6Calm--SE5S7S7
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2 days agoE7E7E7E8E8SE8SE6SE10
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SW6SE54SW4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.