Saturday, August19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 8:42PM Saturday August 19, 2017 1:30 AM EDT (05:30 UTC) Moonrise 3:20AMMoonset 6:23PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1019 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Rest of tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots backing northwest toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:201708190915;;601039 FZUS53 KGRR 190219 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1019 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-190915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee, MI
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location: 44.25, -86.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 190210
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1010 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017

Update
Issued at 1010 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017
ample wrap around moisture and lingering cyclonic flow continue to
produce scattered light rain showers across portions of our cwa
late this evening... Mainly within the higher elevations where
precip production is enhanced by orographic lift. Weak wave is
sliding out of central wisconsin and into central lower michigan
attm... Serving to enhance precip across our far SW CWA attm.

Latest near term models show another short wave riding out of
northern wisconsin and into northern lower michigan very late
tonight into Saturday morning... Which should provide another bump
to ongoing light precip across that area. Have made some upward
adjustments to pops and cloud cover overnight into Saturday to
account for this trend.

Near term (tonight through Saturday)
issued at 400 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017

Slow improving trend...

high impact weather potential... Gusty winds will lead to a high
swim risk on lake michigan through this evening. Otherwise... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Afternoon surface map and satellite
imagery reveals our departing stacked surface low over SE ontario
with abundant wrap around cloud cover draped through the great
lakes region. Larger scale spotty shower activity has ended across
the CWA for the moment. But... Gusty W NW winds and cool-ish air
air (tongue of +10c 850 mb air) flowing across the warm lakes is
producing spotty showers drizzle... Particularly across NW lower
michigan. Upstream... Yet another short is rotating into western
wisconsin with additional showers.

Primary forecast concerns... Clearing trend and lingering precip
chances.

Stacked low and wrap around cloud cover inch out of the region
tonight through Saturday. With loss of heating diurnal component
tonight... Still anticipate some sort of modest cloud thinning
trend for the southern SW parts of the cwa... Although upstream
short wave will bring some additional cloud cover into the region
later tonight through Saturday morning.

Meanwhile... Thicker cloud cover will probably hang on tight for
the N NE portion of the CWA into Saturday and there may another
reinforcing lobe of moisture spotty showers that rotate down
through eastern upper michigan northern lake huron later tonight...

then down through NE lower michigan on Saturday. In addition... We
may see a few showers even isolated thunder pop along the lake
michigan lakeshore of the u.P. Saturday afternoon... With daytime
heating and afternoon lake breeze convergence. Upshot... Not an
entirely perfect day Saturday... Although a big improvement over
today with highs warming back through the 70s.

Short term (Saturday night through Monday)
issued at 400 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017

Eclipse...

high impact weather potential... Thunderstorms for the eclipse?
fast moving upper ridge moves east of region Sunday night. Trough
then moves in and deepens over the upper midwest and great lakes as
upper low over manitoba sinks south. This drops a front into the
upper midwest and northern great lakes by Monday.

Descent shortwave moves along the front Sunday night through the up.

Area of deep moisture and warm advection isentropic lift moves
across the eastern up after midnight with the chance of
precipitation. Elevated CAPE values of near 1000 j kg so mix of lift
and instability could produce thunderstorms.

Better shot Monday. 30-40kt LLJ pushing into the area Monday
afternoon with MUCAPE values around 2000 j kg and sfc dewpoints in
the 60s. Wave moving through the mid level flow crosses northern mi
in the evening as well. Also pocket of cooler 500mb temperatures
moving in will increase lapse rates in the vicinity of the front.

Looks like a good chance of thunderstorms especially over our
southeast areas of our CWA where lis around -6c are forecast and 30
to 40kt 0-6km bulk shear. Possibility of severe weather Monday?

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 400 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017
the h5 pattern in the extended shows large scale troughing over
eastern canada, dipping down across the great lakes through the
first half of the period. The GFS is more impressed with this
feature than the euro... Showing it lingering longer with an
associated closed low deepening as it pulls into quebec. That low
was modeled as deep as 978mb! Whereas the euro shows a weaker
feature that's a bit more transient.

It seems reasonable that showers and thunderstorms are in the
forecast Tuesday and Tuesday night. Upper level support for
stronger storms is modeled in lower canada. Showers may linger in
northwest flow Wednesday in a spotty fashion. As far as
temperatures go, flirting with 80 degrees is possible Tuesday
afternoon. Below normal high temperatures, which are middle 70s for
this time of year, is the theme for the middle and end of the week.

40s at night are plausible Wednesday night, Thursday night, and
Friday night.

Berger jp

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 700 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017
ample wrap around moisture and deep cyclonic flow will maintain
MVFR lowVFR CIGS across all of northern lower michigan tonight
into Saturday morning... Before CIGS begin to lift and clouds
decrease by midday or so. Scattered showers will continue to
impact the region (mainly the higher elevations) thru tonight...

but the chance is too small to include in the taf. Winds will
remain from the W NW at around 10 kts.

Marine
Issued at 400 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017
gusty W NW winds will maintain small craft advisory conditions on
the lake michigan this evening... And on the huron side through the
overnight hours. Weakening winds and diminishing waves through the
weekend.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement until 11 pm edt this evening for miz016-
019>021-025-031.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Saturday for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lmz323-341-
342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lsz321-322.

Update... Mr
near term... Ba
short term... Kf
long term... Kb
aviation... Mr
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 1 mi51 min N 8.9 G 9.9 67°F 1011.5 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 17 mi51 min N 7 G 9.9 67°F 1012.2 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi43 min Calm G 4.1 65°F 58°F
45024 23 mi31 min N 9.7 G 14 68°F 69°F2 ft1012.7 hPa (+0.9)60°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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E5
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G8
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G14

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI5 mi35 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F61°F96%1012.8 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi36 minN 310.00 miOvercast62°F58°F89%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW12
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W11NW11W12W8W9W4W3CalmN5CalmCalm
1 day ago------------SE6SE6--453SW8S8--S7
G15
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--SW8SW9
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SW8
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W11
G18
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.