Tuesday, April24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fishers Landing, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 8:00PM Tuesday April 24, 2018 8:25 AM EDT (12:25 UTC) Moonrise 1:05PMMoonset 2:35AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1031 Pm Edt Mon Apr 23 2018
Overnight..South winds 10 knots or less. Clear.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Mostly Sunny early, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers in the evening, then rain overnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Rain.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Rain.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south less than 10 knots. Rain likely during the day, then a chance of rain showers Thursday night.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of rain showers Friday night.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Rain showers likely.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fishers Landing, NY
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location: 44.26, -76.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 241030
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
630 am edt Tue apr 24 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure moving from the ohio valley to the mid atlantic will
spread showers into the region from southwest to northeast later
today and this evening. Periods of rain will then continue tonight
through Wednesday night before ending from west to east on Thursday
as the low moves into new england. High pressure will bring a return
to drier weather later Thursday.

Near term through tonight
Mid high clouds will continue to increase from southwest to
northeast across the region through this morning as moisture spreads
northward ahead of a slow moving vertically stacked low over the
ohio valley. An initial push of warm advection, moisture, and
isentropic upglide will produce an area of light showers through mid
morning across portions of chautauqua and cattaraugus counties.

Radar imagery from this will be much more impressive than what
actually reaches the ground, with a good deal of sub-cloud
evaporation in this still very dry airmass. Otherwise, it will
remain dry for the rest of the area through at least early afternoon.

Later this afternoon and evening a second, stronger area of dpva,
moisture, and forcing for ascent will move into the area. Upper
level divergence will increase by this evening as the right entrance
region of a 100+ knot upper level jet moves across the eastern great
lakes. Expect showers to reach the western southern tier around mid
afternoon, then spread into the rest of western ny and the genesee
valley during the late afternoon and early evening, before reaching
the eastern lake ontario region by late evening.

Periods of rain will then continue tonight as the ohio valley closed
low begins to open up and interact with a northern stream trough
digging into the central great lakes. This will maintain moisture
transport and large scale ascent across the region. The low levels
will begin to saturate overnight with the ongoing rain, allowing
some patchy fog to develop. The fog will be most prevalent across
the higher terrain where low stratus will intersect the hilltops,
and possibly the south shore of lake ontario from rochester westward
with low level moisture condensing as it crosses the cold lake
waters on developing northeast flow.

It will be another warm day today prior to the arrival of the rain.

Expect highs in the mid or even upper 60s from the niagara frontier
eastward across the genesee valley to the eastern lake ontario
region. The western southern tier will only be in the mid 50s with
an earlier arrival of thicker cloud cover. Across western ny, these
highs will occur during the early afternoon before temperatures
begin to fall during the mid to late afternoon. Lows tonight will
pull back into the mid 40s in most locations.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
A cutoff low will be over the carolinas by Wednesday morning while a
robust northern stream wave dives from the upper great lakes toward
western ny. The weakening cutoff low will be absorbed by the
northern stream wave as it moves up the east coast to new england by
Thursday morning. This complex interaction will slow the progression
of the northern stream wave, while strengthening it into a closed
off low as it tracks across new york state Wednesday night. The most
reasonable forecast solution remains the blend of the ec gem nam,
which slow the progression of the wave as the merger occurs, while
the operational GFS remains an outlier among the solutions with a
very progressive and farther north solution. The operational GFS is
even an outlier among its own ensemble members, which prefer a
slower evolution. Thus the official forecast continues leverage this
ec gem NAM blend.

The result of this complex interaction will be periods of fairly
steady moderate rain through the day Wednesday as anomalous easterly
flow ahead of the cutoff low moving up the coast directs deep
atlantic moisture back across wny. This moisture will be fed around
the cold conveyor belt of the strengthening surface low moving up
the east coast, and into an area of enhanced forcing under diffluent
flow aloft ahead of the closing upper-level low and the inverted
surface trough. The greatest rainfall totals will depend on exactly
where the deformation zone sets up, but this would like be somewhere
between wny and the finger lakes.

Rain will weaken in intensity and become more showery into Wednesday
night and Thursday as the upper-level low moves over and eventually
east of the forecast area, shutting down the optimal synoptic
dynamics. However, the strengthening northwesterly flow across the
region as the surface low moves into new england, along with ample
deep wrap around moisture, will support lingering rain showers.

These showers will be most enhanced south and east of the lake
ontario where the combination of low-level convergence off the lake
and orographic enhancement over the higher terrain provide added
lift. Following with the expected slower evolution of this system,
this will mean rain showers tapering off from west to east late
Wednesday night through the day Thursday as the surface low moves
into the canadian maritimes and a surface high builds in from the
west. Any lingering showers should end by late Thursday night giving
a dry start to Friday.

Have also introduced a chance of snow to the forecast across
the higher terrain of the western southern tier for Thursday
morning. However, this would be a narrow window where, by the time
the cold advection brings in enough cold air to allow some wet
flakes to mix in, the precipitation will be shutting down, and thus
any impact or accumulation would be essentially zero.

Rainfall totals will likely be over 3 4" for most locations, with 1"
to 1.5" quite possible for some, depending on where the deformation
zone sets up, and when factoring in lingering upslope enhancement
south and east of lake ontario. With the recent bout of drier
weather across the region, expect the area creeks and rivers will be
able to handle the rainfall without issue.

Daily high temperatures will be held to the low to mid 50s with
ample cloud cover and rain across the region. Nighttime lows will be
in the 30s to low 40s.

Long term Friday through Monday
A shortwave ridge will move across the region Friday behind the mid-
week storm. This will bring a break of dry weather and mild
temperatures (upper 50s to low 60s) through much of the day Friday.

An upper trough dropping through the great lakes will bring a cold
front through the region during the late Friday or early Saturday
period, bringing another round of rain showers. This will leave a
spell of cooler weather in its wake for the weekend, with daytime
highs only in the low to mid 50s.

Forecast models are coming into good agreement about a ridge
building across the region to start next week. Exactly how fast this
happens remains is in question, but we could be looking at mid to
upper 60s by Monday and 70s by Tuesdays along with dry and mainly
sunny weather.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
High cirrus level clouds will continue to increase across the region
through the morning hours ahead of low pressure moving slowly
northeast through the ohio valley. A few light showers will move
across the western southern tier including kjhw for a few hours
early to mid morning before dissipating. A more widespread area of
rain showers will arrive in the western southern tier around mid
afternoon, then spread northeast across the rest of the area from
late afternoon through the evening as low pressure and associated
forcing and deep moisture approach.

Cigs vsby will beVFR for the first few hours of rain given the dry
airmass in place. CIGS vsby will then drop to MVFR this evening as
the low levels begin to saturate, with ifr becoming more likely
across the western southern tier by mid evening, and across the
remainder of western ny overnight. East of lake ontario,VFR will
trend towards MVFR later tonight, with ifr developing late tonight
across higher terrain.

Outlook...

Wednesday... MVFR ifr with occasional rain.

Thursday... MVFR ifr improving toVFR with showers ending.

Friday...VFR.

Saturday...VFR to MVFR in scattered showers.

Marine
Low pressure will move from the ohio valley today to the mid
atlantic region by Wednesday morning before exiting across the gulf
of maine on Thursday. South winds early today will become easterly
by tonight, and northeast on Wednesday as the surface low passes by
to our south and east. Wind speeds will generally remain under 15
knots through this period. A tighter pressure gradient will develop
Wednesday night and Thursday in the wake of this system, with
northwest winds becoming west. This may bring a period of small
craft advisory conditions to the eastern great lakes.

Fire weather
High pressure will drift east off the new england coast today while
low pressure moves slowly through the ohio valley. It will be
another very dry day east of lake ontario, with afternoon minimum
relative humidity dropping to around 25 percent. Farther west,
minimum relative humidity will briefly drop to around 35 percent
across the niagara frontier, genesee valley, and western finger
lakes before increasing again late today as showers arrive. Periods
of rain will then bring widespread wetting rain tonight through
Wednesday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hitchcock
near term... Hitchcock
short term... Church
long term... Church
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Hitchcock
fire weather... Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 7 mi38 min 39°F1024.3 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 41 mi44 min 55°F 1023.8 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 61 mi38 min SSE 11 G 18 55°F 1024.6 hPa35°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY17 mi90 minS 610.00 miFair54°F33°F45%1024.2 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY21 mi90 minS 1010.00 miFair50°F30°F47%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3454SW7W9W6W7W5NW4W5NE3E3E5SE3S7S6S6S8S6S7S7S6S8
G17
1 day agoCalm3CalmW9W9SW7SW8SW10W8W7SW6SW3CalmCalmCalmE3E5E3E5E5E5CalmE4E3
2 days agoSW4SW6W7W9W10W9W10W10W10SW8SW9SW7S6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5E3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.