Sunday, June25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fishers Landing, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:52PM Sunday June 25, 2017 4:56 AM EDT (08:56 UTC) Moonrise 6:11AMMoonset 9:15PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 919 Pm Edt Sat Jun 24 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers late this evening.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms late.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening...then a chance of showers overnight.
Monday..West winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fishers Landing, NY
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location: 44.26, -76.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 250614
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
214 am edt Sun jun 25 2017

Synopsis
Temperatures will continue to run cooler than average into early
next week, as an upper level trough moves across the region. The
cooler temperatures will be accompanied by showers at times, as a
series of upper level disturbances cross the area. The trough will
move east by Wednesday, with warmer temperatures expected by mid-
week.

Near term through today
Expect dry conditions with mainly clear skies through the rest of the
pre-dawn hours. The cooler temperatures aloft, combined with
diminished cloud cover will translate to cooler overnight readings
than we have seen of late, with lows dipping into the upper 50s
along the lake plains, with mid 50s across the higher elevations
inland.

A broad mid-level longwave trough extends from the northern plains
across the great lakes and into the northeast region this morning.

Water vapor imagery showing an embedded vigorous vorticity MAX over
lake michigan that is expected to cross western and central new york
later today. Synoptic scale lift from this shortwave and low-level
forcing from a surface trough and 30+ knot low level jet will
contribute to scattered mainly diurnal showers and isolated
thunderstorms. The most widespread coverage will be during the
afternoon corresponding to peak heating and closer to the passage of
the surface trough.

Gusty southwest winds 25-30kts downwind of the lakes should provide
a lake shadow to keep shower storm coverage mainly inland.

Temperatures will top out a few degrees below normal due to the
influence of the longwave trough and associated pool of cool air
aloft. Highs are forecast to top out within a few degrees of 70.

Dewpoints only around 50 will yield very comfortable humidity
levels.

Short term tonight through Tuesday night
Through the course of this period a long wave trough will pass
across the great lakes region, reaching its greatest depth Monday
night as a strong shortwave passes through. Within this trough
temperatures at 850 hpa will bottom out around +5 to +6c, and at 500
hpa temperatures of -20c within this trough will be around 4sd below
normal for this time of year centered across the ohio valley.

Sunday night a swath of deeper moisture will settle southward across
lake ontario and later lake ontario. As temperatures at 925 850 hpa
drop to around +10 +6c lake instability will increase over a +22c
(lake erie) and +19c (lake ontario) lake surface. While rain showers
will be possible across the lake plains, greatest chances will be
across the higher terrain of SW nys and the tug hill to SE of lake
ontario region where orographic uplift on a west to northwesterly
wind in addition to lake induced CAPE values of 1500 to 2000 j kg
should generate rare late june lake enhanced precipitation. Any lake
enhanced rain will become more scattered during the late morning
hours during increased daytime mixing. The approach of an upper
level shortwave later Monday will again increase the coverage area
of showers and thunderstorms over the region. The deep 500 hpa
trough and its associated cool pool will encourage some thunderstorm
development, and with low freezing levels and wbz heights around 6-
8k feet some graupel or small hail will be possible. However the
skinny CAPE profiles suggest that larger hail will be unlikely.

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish Monday night with the
passage of the shortwave within the base of the long wave trough.

There may linger a few lake enhanced rain showers deeper into the
night, especially across the north country which will lie under the
cooler air aloft.

Tuesday we will remain within the influences of the upper level
trough, through now behind the robust shortwave, and slowly rising
heights aloft the rain shower coverage intensity should be less than
Monday. The still cool pool aloft will continue the chances for a
few thunderstorms. By Tuesday night the upper level trough will be
pushing away from our region with any linger rain showers largely
ending by the late evening hours. A few lake effect rain showers may
develop off lake ontario as low level convergence increases on a
westerly flow. However we will also begin to warm a degree or two at
850 hpa, so lake instability will not be as great as previous
nights.

Temperatures will be well below normal Monday and Tuesday with both
days only pushing mid to upper 60s for highs. Overnight lows will
drop back into the upper 40s to mid 50s closer to the lakes.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
While humidity will increase to uncomfortable levels during this
period... Temperatures will not stray very far from normal. This will
be due to an eastward displacement of the sub tropical ridge that
during the summer typically supplies our region with very warm
and sultry weather. The heart of this ridge will be centered well
off the coast of the carolinas between 60-70w longitude rather than
70-80w... So this will allow a very broad low amplitude trough to
become established over the center of the country. The overall
result will be to keep the true heat out of area... Although we
will have our fair share of humid conditions.

Unfortunately... The position of the low amplitude trough to our west
will also mean that the core of the sub tropical jet will undulate
back and forth across the great lakes region. This will keep active
weather over our forecast area... As several significant waves sfc
lows will track east along a frontal boundary that will essentially
mimic the position of the overlying jet. Given the time of year...

this will enhance focus diurnally enhanced convection. As for the
day to day details...

Wednesday should be the 'nicest' weather day of the period... As a
shortwave ridge will work its way across the lower great lakes.

While there could be some disorganized lake effect rain showers east
of lake ontario to start the day... Any lake effect will quickly be
broken apart by strong diurnal mixing. Otherwise... We can expect at
least partial sunshine with a comfortable afternoon as temperatures
in the 70s will be accompanied by relatively low humidity.

Conditions will start to deteriorate Wednesday night as a warm front
will extend east across our region from the upper great lakes. While
the strongest isentropic lift along and head of this boundary should
be to our north and west... There will be the potential for some late
night showers and storms.

While the warm front will push north of our region during the day
Thursday... We will become firmly entrenched within the more unstable
warm sector of the parent system. This will allow any boundaries to
touch off some showers and thunderstorms... Which appears to be a
favored solution by many of the ensembles. Will thus raise pops to
likely. Otherwise it will be a warmer and more humid day with
temperatures climbing into the lower 80s for the bulk of western new
york... While readings will be in the 70s east of lake ontario and
across the higher elevations. The increased humidity will be more
noticeable as dew points will be some 10 deg higher... Reaching into
the low to mid 60s.

As low pressure moves east and weakens across the st lawrence valley
Thursday night... Its trailing cold front will settle south and
essentially stall over our forecast area. This will keep unsettled
conditions in place with fairly frequent showers and thunderstorms
expected into the start of the weekend. In fact... With dew points
forecast to climb into the upper 60s for most areas on Friday...

storms will likely contain heavier than normal downpours resulting
in an elevated risk for flash flooding. Stay tuned.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
Expect mainly dryVFR conditions overnight. These will largely last
through today with showers and a few thunderstorms expected to
develop during the afternoon hours. Lower vis is possible in any
passing scattered to numerous showers isolated storm.

Tonight, a much cooler airmass will move over western and central
new york. This will promote some lake effect showers east of the
lakes with lake effect clouds also developing and lowering to MVFR
east of the lakes. MVFR is most possible at kjhw.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday... MainlyVFR with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms... Mainly in the afternoons.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR.

Thursday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Southwesterly winds will increase again today. Waves will rise
higher particularly on the eastern half of lake erie, as winds
strengthen further as a strong upper level disturbance moves
through. Small craft advisory conditions will develop on the eastern
end of lake erie this afternoon and perhaps on the eastern end of
lake ontario tonight.

After a brief respite Monday morning, another passing upper level
disturbance will likely bring another period of small craft advisory
conditions to lake erie Monday night.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Beach hazards statement from noon edt today through this
evening for nyz010-019-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon today to 2 am edt Monday for
lez040-041.

Small craft advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this
evening for lez020.

Synopsis... Smith tma
near term... Apffel smith tma
short term... Thomas
long term... Rsh
aviation... Smith
marine... Smith tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 7 mi38 min 65°F1012.3 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 41 mi44 min 59°F 1011.9 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 61 mi38 min S 5.1 G 7 61°F 1012.9 hPa55°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY17 mi2 hrsS 410.00 miFair58°F57°F100%1012.2 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY21 mi58 minS 310.00 miFair56°F54°F94%1012.4 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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W8SW4S3S3CalmS4S3
1 day agoSW8SW7S4CalmSW4S6SW4NW4E5CalmSW6SW5SW8SW6W4W4CalmSW3W6SW8SW5SW5W5W7
2 days agoS3S3S5SW7SW8W8W10W8W5W6W6W8SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S6SW5
G21
SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.