Tuesday, August22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Thousand Island Park, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:57PM Tuesday August 22, 2017 8:49 PM EDT (00:49 UTC) Moonrise 6:06AMMoonset 7:39PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1031 Am Edt Tue Aug 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 5 pm edt this afternoon through this evening...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms late this morning...then scattered showers early this afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms late. Some Thunderstorms may be severe with strong winds late.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with scattered Thunderstorms in the evening...then scattered showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to less than 10 knots. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thursday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Mainly clear.
Saturday..Northwest winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thousand Island Park, NY
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location: 44.27, -76.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 222134
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
534 pm edt Tue aug 22 2017

Synopsis
Showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east this evening
following a cold front. Much cooler weather will then build into the
region for Wednesday through next weekend with a few spotty showers
possible Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure will then bring dry
weather Friday through the weekend.

Near term through Wednesday
Severe weather event continues this evening but the focus has
shifted to central ny. Radar near 5pm shows the leading first round
of severe storms has shifted toward eastern ny and the mohawk valley
while the second line of strong to severe thunderstorms extends from
the slv southwest across syracuse to about wellsville. The tornado
watch has been cancelled for western ny due to the stabilizing
effects of the earlier storms while the tornado watch remains from
cayuga county east into cny where SPC mesoanalysis still shows 500-
1000 j kg of SBCAPE and 50-60kts effective shear.

West of ny state, a third wave of mainly scattered showers and
isolated storms is shifting east across southwest ontario province
along the trailing cold front this evening. Expect these scattered
showers to sweep east across the region with the front while ending
from west to east through the late evening and early overnight. A
strong push of subsidence and drying behind the cold front will
bring clearing overnight.

Wednesday, a large upper-level low will meander slowly eastward
across quebec, while a couple of shortwave embedded in the cyclonic
flow will move across the region.

A shortwave will dive southward out of ontario province and
across the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Marginal
moisture associated with this wave will combine with cool air
aloft and some added lake moisture as the attendant surface
trough crosses the lower great lakes. This will produce
scattered showers across the region, which will be locally
enhanced by the northerly upslope flow into the tug hill, and
higher terrain from the western southern tier to the finger
lakes with the frontal passage. Outside of the scattered
showers, broken stratocumulus cloud deck will bring only spotty
sunshine to the region. 850 mb temperatures Wednesday will
remain around +9 to +10c, which will keep daytime highs in the
low to mid 70s when combined with the cloud cover.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
The main feature of note during this period will be an upper level
trough that will be in place across the northeastern u.S. Through
the period. A pair of shortwaves dropping out of canada will
reinforce the troughing across the region, and with 850mb temps
falling to +6c generating a robust lake response, we can expect
fairly widespread cloud cover at least through Thursday. Shower
chances south southeast of the lakes will only run to about 30
percent at best though, as there will be a dearth of moisture aloft.

It start to feel fall-like temperature-wise, with the trough causing
temperatures to fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s both Wednesday
night and Thursday night, with highs only reaching the upper 60s
Thursday.

Expect sunnier skies to end the work week on Friday, as the latest
shortwave passes to the east and surface high pressure begins to
build in from the upper great lakes. The corresponding
subsidence and very dry airmass, along with light winds aloft,
should outweigh lingering lake instability to provide for a
brighter end to the week, though it will remain on the cool
side, with highs in the upper 60s.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
A pleasant weather pattern is expected over the weekend and heading
into next week. Model consensus (ecmwf ggem gfs) builds surface high
pressure across the region throughout the entire long term period.

This will result in a prolonged stretch of dry weather, with partly
to mostly clear skies. The back edge of an upper level trough will
pivot across the region Saturday night and Sunday. With 850 mb
temperatures falling to around +6c there may be some lake effect
clouds, and the shortwave may spark a stray shower. This said, the
dry air mass will limit the potential for anything more than widely
scattered showers. Otherwise, the cool air mass will result in cool,
almost fall-like temperatures. Over the weekend highs will average
in the lower 70s with overnight lows falling well into the 40s
across the interior valleys. Temperatures will warm slightly early
next week, with highs in in the lower to mid 70s.

Aviation 22z Tuesday through Sunday
Vfr will prevail tonight and Wednesday following a cold frontal
passage.

The first line of storms is well east of cny this evening with the
second line of severe storms extending from kart southwest to kelz
near 21z. These will continue to spread very rapidly east through
this evening. Heavier storms may produce a brief period of local
ifr MVFR as they sweep across the area.

A third line of mainly scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will also shift east along the actual cold front through the evening
hours. These will end overnight from west to east as a cold front
crosses the area.

Vfr is expected Wednesday behind the cold front with breezy westerly
winds and sct bkn stratocumulus clouds developing through the
afternoon. Scattered showers are also expected but should not bring
reduced flight categories.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers.

Friday through Sunday...VFR.

Marine
Sw winds have increased this evening on both lakes erie and ontario,
bringing solid small craft advisory conditions. A cold front will
sweep east across the lower lakes this evening with scattered
showers and isolated storms. Winds will become northwest and
diminish on lake erie, with winds and waves likely dropping below
small craft advisory criteria overnight. Winds on lake erie will
become west and likely increase again Wednesday with another round
of small craft advisory conditions. Winds will remain westerly and
much stronger on lake ontario overnight through Wednesday, with
solid small craft advisory conditions continuing through Wednesday
night before winds become northwest and diminish by Thursday morning.

Tides coastal flooding
Strong southwest winds are developing over lake ontario early
this evening which will then become westerly tonight through
Wednesday. The increase in winds and wave action will bring and
increase in shoreline erosion and lakeshore flooding to the east
half of lake ontario when combined with the already high lake
levels. The static lake levels have dropped since late spring
and early summer, so the impacts of this event are not likely to
be as significant as earlier in the season, but still enough to
warrant a lakeshore flood warning.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood warning until 11 pm edt Wednesday for nyz007.

Lakeshore flood warning from 10 pm this evening to 11 pm edt
Wednesday for nyz004>006.

Beach hazards statement until 11 pm edt this evening for
nyz010-019-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez020.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Wednesday for lez040-
041.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
loz030.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for
loz042>045.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for
slz022-024.

Synopsis... Hitchcock smith
near term... Church hitchcock smith
short term... Wood
long term... Apffel
aviation... Hitchcock smith
marine... Hitchcock smith
tides coastal flooding... Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 7 mi49 min 74°F1002.7 hPa (+0.5)
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 42 mi49 min 68°F 1002.2 hPa (+1.2)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 61 mi49 min S 11 G 16 73°F 1004.7 hPa (-0.0)67°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY18 mi1.9 hrsSSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F68°F96%1003.4 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY22 mi51 minSW 1010.00 miFair70°F67°F92%1003.4 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4CalmSE4CalmCalm33S4S3CalmS9S7S9
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1 day agoS4CalmS4S5CalmCalmSW3S3S4CalmCalmS3S5SW9SW9SW11
G16
SW9SW9SW7SW7SW6SW7W6Calm
2 days agoSW8SW7W8W8W6W6W7NW5W5CalmCalmSW3W6W9SW8W10W10SW9W8SW12SW10W7SW5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.