Friday, May25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Thousand Island Park, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:35PM Friday May 25, 2018 2:56 PM EDT (18:56 UTC) Moonrise 3:30PMMoonset 2:45AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 125 Am Edt Fri May 25 2018
Overnight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers from late morning on.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely with scattered Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Sunday night.
Monday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Mainly clear. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thousand Island Park, NY
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location: 44.27, -76.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 251717
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
117 pm edt Fri may 25 2018

Synopsis
Increasing southwesterly flow and sunshine will lead to warm
temperatures through the holiday weekend. There will be a chance of
a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms each day from
Saturday through early next week, but the vast majority of the time
will be rain free.

Near term through Saturday
Broad southwesterly flow already resides over the majority of the
area as a warm front is advancing northeastward toward the north
country. Behind this warm front, strong mixing will become
increasingly evident throughout the afternoon even while dewpoints
remain rather subdued. With a fairly dry boundary layer, a distinct
lack of cloud cover, strong boundary layer mixing, and near peak
annual insolation this afternoon, temperatures should really take
off. The consensus 850 hpa temperature of +17c or so through the
heart of the CWA should easily mix out to surface temperatures into
the mid 80s across the niagara frontier away from the influences of
the cold lake water. Because of this, high temperatures should surge
into the 80s in most locations away from the water in western new
york.

The story is a bit different across the north country. With the warm
front yet to cross this area, and a weak short wave trough running
through the area in the pre-warm frontal environment, abundant
clouds and a few rain showers will be present through the early
afternoon hours. As this short wave trough pushes eastward later on,
the warm front should advance north of most of the area for a time
later this evening, however this will be a bit too late to see
generous run-ups in temperatures.

Overnight, southwesterly large scale flow will continue as dewpoints
start to creep up. This will keep a floor underneath low
temperatures overnight, yet dewpoints shouldn't jump enough to make
it an uncomfortable sleeping night just yet.

The post-warm frontal ridging that we will be enjoying from
today into tonight will start to break down on Saturday as an
unimpressive short wave trough moves from the central great
lakes toward our area by Saturday afternoon. Some increase in
cloud cover will be evident with this weak system on Saturday,
however poor large scale ascent and only a very weak right
entrance region of an upper jetlet will result in synoptic scale
ascent that will have difficulty overcoming mesoscale effects.

Thus, showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be relegated
to the lake breeze boundaries and push eastward from there.

Thus, while the southern tier, northern finger lakes, and areas
east of lake ontario will have a chance of showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon Saturday, it seems
stabilization from the great lakes should keep the bulk of the
immediate buffalo niagara falls rochester areas mainly dry as
the system passes.

Continued warm advection on Saturday in southwesterly large scale
flow combined with a warmer start to the day should manage to allow
for similar high temperatures on Saturday when compared to today.

This will be the case even with less insolation due to a bit more
cloud cover.

Short term Saturday night through Monday
Summery conditions expected for memorial day weekend, with high
temperatures mainly in the 80s, elevated humidity with dew points in
the 60s, and scattered brief shower and thunderstorm chances (mainly
inland from the lakes) with plenty of dry time for outdoor
activities.

On Sunday, shower and thunderstorm chances still look to be rather
scattered with plenty of dry time for most locations. A developing
pre-frontal trough near the genesee valley during the day Sunday
will help provided surface convergence focus for some scattered
shower and thunderstorm development during afternoon peak heating.

However, locations downwind of the lakes will remain shadowed, and
thus dry through the day. The actual cold front will then cross the
forecast area from northwest to southeast Sunday night with more
scattered shower and thunderstorm chances along the boundary. This
will provide the best chance for a brief rain shower or thunderstorm
for locations shadowed by the lakes much of the weekend. Highs will
remain in the 80s for most locations, except cooler near the lake
shores, with still elevated humidity levels as dew points linger in
the 60s.

By memorial day, the weak frontal boundary will have moved south of
the forecast area, with really little change in overall airmass.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be mainly confined to interior
areas of the forecast area and over the higher terrain in closer
proximity to the front. Locations along the lake plains will be both
shadowed by the lake breezes and away from the better moisture and
forcing behind the front. Thus expect another mostly dry with high
temperatures in the 80s and slightly uncomfortable humidity values.

Long term Monday night through Friday
High pressure will build across the region Tuesday and Wednesday,
bringing a return to completely dry weather. This will finally usher
in a subtle airmass change as the surface high builds in from the
upper great lakes on Tuesday, as daytime highs will only top out in
the upper 70s to near 80 and dew points will fall back to more
comfortable levels in the 50s. As the surface high tracks off the
new england coast on Wednesday, warmer and more humid air will
return as highs push into the low 80s and dew points creep back up
into the 60s. Chances for showers will likely hold off until the
Thursday Friday time frame when the next upper-level trough
approaches the great lakes and brings the opportunity for some
poleward advection of tropical subtropical moisture into the region.

Aviation 17z Friday through Tuesday
Vfr will prevail through Saturday even as a ridge of high pressure
gets edged to the east. A weak and slow moving warm front will
continue to allow for some showers mainly north of kart in the north
country, but this should not affect any of the terminals. SW gusty
winds this afternoon will slacken this evening but continue sw
through Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday... MainlyVFR. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon and evening.

Sunday and Monday... MainlyVFR with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
High pressure will slowly settle to the southeast through the
weekend. A weak system will slowly advance eastward through the
great lakes, however as it remains to the west of the area for the
most part, southwesterly winds will be about all it creates over the
water. A weak pressure gradient will remain in place through early
next week, with winds generally under 15 knots and waves 2 feet or
less.

There may be a few widely scattered thunderstorms at times with
locally higher winds and waves.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Fries
near term... Fries
short term... Church
long term... Church
aviation... Fries
marine... Fries


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 7 mi86 min 53°F1010.4 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 42 mi86 min 64°F 1009.6 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 61 mi86 min W 9.9 G 13 73°F 1011.7 hPa49°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY18 mi2 hrsSW 11 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F48°F53%1011.6 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY22 mi60 minSW 11 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F50°F44%1010.6 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11W9W10SW8SW8SW3S4SW8SW4CalmS5S6SW8SW6S5SW6SW5SW7SW10SW10
G19
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1 day agoSW9SW7SW10S7SW6SW3CalmCalmCalmE3E4E3CalmCalmSE3E3CalmCalmCalmNE34W7W9W10
2 days agoSW3S5S4S7S5SW7SW4SW4SW3SW5SW4SW4S3W3SW3SW3SW5SW5SW7SW11SW11W9
G17
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.