Tuesday, October17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Thousand Island Park, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 6:16PM Tuesday October 17, 2017 8:16 PM EDT (00:16 UTC) Moonrise 3:50AMMoonset 4:38PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 141 Pm Edt Tue Oct 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy early, then clearing.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Sunny.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. Becoming mainly clear.
Friday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Mainly clear.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thousand Island Park, NY
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location: 44.27, -76.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 172303
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
703 pm edt Tue oct 17 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the ohio valley will shift south tonight and
stall over the mid-atlantic coastline through the end of the week.

This will provide an extended period of dry weather and above normal
temperatures. The next chance of rain is forecast next Monday with a
cold front.

Near term through Wednesday
Satellite imagery early this evening showing an area of high thin
cirrus across the central great lakes and southern ontario, which
will stream across the area through at least the first half of
tonight. A weak trough over southern ontario may also bring a few
mid level clouds to the eastern lake ontario region from late
evening through the overnight. The overall trend will be for
mainly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight.

Large scale surface high pressure draped from the southern plains to
southern new england will shift just a bit further to the south
tonight. The gradient between this high and deep low pressure
exiting quebec will maintain enough of a breeze to prevent much of
any fog development tonight. The southwest flow will keep overnight
temperatures milder than last night with lows in the lower 50s on
the lake plains and low to mid 40s in the cooler southern tier
valleys and lewis county.

Western and north-central new york will will remain between a strong
surface high pressure centered over the mid-atlantic and a
strong low progressing through central canada on Wednesday. This
will maintain dry and warm, but breezy conditions. Winds will not be
as strong as today, but still expect gusts of around 20 mph
northeast of lakes erie and ontario. Temperatures will climb to a
solid 10 degrees or so above normal with highs into the mid to upper
60s for most areas, and around 70 for the genesee valley into
central ny.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday night
Dry weather will continue from Wednesday night through Friday night
as the flow aloft only shows a weak shortwave moving across the
region on Thursday. This feature is an extension of a trough well to
the north near the hudson bay, and will feature a dry frontal
passage of little interest except for some transitory clouds and non-
consequential day to day temperature variability. In short, expect
near or slight above normal high temperatures - mostly in the 60s
(or about 10f about normal).

Throughout this time, a surface ridge will be well displaced toward
the southeast us. This will allow SW winds to prevail across the
lower great lakes region. With the dry frontal passage, winds may
be gusty on Thursday, but probably not reaching advisory criteria.

Meanwhile, the above mentioned longwave trough will be embedded an
even larger longwave ridge over much of eastern north america. This
feature will begin to clearly show itself toward Friday eve as the
pacific jet continues to force downstream amplification. The short
term result will be the ridge over the eastern us leading into the
weekend. This ridge will ensure surface high pressure for Friday.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Strengthening pacific flow in the mid levels will result in large
scale progressive amplification at 500mb with a trough in the west
and ridge in the east for the weekend. The trough will shift east
bringing weather more typical of fall toward next week but there
remains high model variability and low forecast confidence in
specific details. Despite this, an overall pattern change is
(finally) looking inevitable as we move deeper into fall.

In the meantime, the ridge in place over the midwest Friday will
slowly move toward the east coast Saturday. Southwesterly flow on
the west side of the surface high will again pump warm air into the
region for Sunday. Both weekend days should remain dry with
temperatures more typical of early september resulting in excellent
opportunities for outdoor activities.

The progressive amplified flow mentioned above means that the ridge
will soon be replaced with a trough. Expect eventual surface low
development over central canada over the weekend with a cold front
probably arriving Sunday night or Monday with the GFS a bit
faster than the 12z ec.

As the mid level pattern continues to amplify, a deep, large upper
level trough will develop over the great lakes and eventually
northeast us into next week. The result will likely result in
numerous showers and cooler temperatures. Temperatures aloft do not
currently support snow, at least not through Tuesday. But, some form
of lake effect response is possible next week with 850mb forecast
to drop back below 0c.

Aviation 23z Tuesday through Sunday
A weak trough will move across northern ny and new england through
the first half of tonight, with just scattered mid level clouds east
of lake ontario and some high thin cirrus elsewhere.VFR will
prevail overnight with the southwest breeze slowly diminishing.VFR
will continue through Wednesday. Any remaining thin cirrus will
slowly fade with skc by afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...VFR except for local ifr in river valley
fog each late night and early morning.

Marine
High pressure is in place, but expect fresh to strong breezes to
remain of the lower great lakes into tonight as a tight pressure
graident continues over the eastern great lakes. Small craft
advisory conditions will be found for lake erie and ontario through
early Wednesday morning.

Another period of light winds waves expected Wednesday as high
pressure shifts across the mid-atlantic region. The pressure
gradient over the eastern great lakes tightens up again Thursday
with the approach of a cold front, likely bringing another round of
small craft advisory conditions.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Wednesday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for
lez020.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Wednesday for
loz043.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Wednesday for loz042.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Wednesday for loz044-
045.

Synopsis... Tma
near term... Hitchcock tma
short term... Zaff
long term... Smith zaff
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Hitchcock tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 7 mi46 min 62°F1018.1 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 42 mi46 min 56°F 1017.4 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 61 mi46 min S 6 G 7 57°F 1019.5 hPa40°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Last
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NW10
G15
NW9
G12
NW6
G11
N7
G10
S7
S7
S6
G9
S7
S9
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G10
S9
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G13
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G14
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G16
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G14
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G16
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G14
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G18
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G14
SW11
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SW10
G13
S7
G10
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S6
1 day
ago
W32
W31
W28
G39
W28
G35
NW24
NW23
NW19
G23
NW17
G22
N12
G18
N11
G19
N13
G18
NW16
G20
N10
G13
NW11
G16
NW13
G16
N11
G16
NW12
G21
NW12
G17
NW15
G19
W12
G15
NW12
G18
NW14
G17
NW14
G17
NW13
G17
2 days
ago
SE3
SE8
G12
SE8
G12
SE8
SE3
G6
SE6
S7
G11
S8
G11
S14
G20
S16
S17
G22
S16
G21
S17
G23
S19
G25
S18
G27
S20
G27
S15
G23
S17
G21
S13
G18
S13
G18
S11
G15
W27
G37
W20
G27
W21
G33

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY18 mi80 minSSW 710.00 miFair55°F41°F59%1019 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY22 mi20 minSSW 1010.00 miFair53°F38°F59%1019.1 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3CalmSE3CalmCalmE3SE3S43S4S5S7S9
G16
S11
G18
S10
G19
SW13
G20
SW16
G22
SW15
G22
SW14
G19
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G20
S6SW7S7
1 day agoSW20
G31
W17
G33
W15
G22
NW13NW12
G22
NW8NW10N7N6N7NW7N8N7NW8NW53W6N4W6NW8NW8NW7N3Calm
2 days agoCalmN4E4NE3NW4CalmCalmCalm5S6
G16
S9
G22
S14
G23
S11
G24
S16
G26
S13
G23
S16
G28
S13
G27
SW18
G31
S12
G20
S13
G22
S9
G22
SW19
G31
SW14
G23
SW18
G30

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.