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FXUS61 KBTV 182307 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 707 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A trough of low pressure will move out of the forecast area tonight, bringing showers to a temporary end. More scattered showers are expected tomorrow and Saturday, accompanied by some breezy winds.
Highs will be in the 40s to 60s into early next week when drier air returns Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

As of 708 PM EDT Thursday...

Forecast remains in overall good shape so only made minor changes to bring it up to date with current obs. See previous discussion below.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

Showers will come to an end tonight as the shortwave providing forcing moves east out of our forecast area, though moisture and clouds will linger under an inversion, and southerly winds will continue. This will produce mild nighttime lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s. Wind gusts could continue up to 10-20 knots throughout the night with a mixed atmosphere.

Tomorrow, we continue to see a low level south/southwesterly jet pick up over the forecast area, with 45-55 knots at the 850mb level by the afternoon. This will mix gusts up to 15-30 knots to the surface, while higher peaks could have wind gusts up to 50 knots. In addition to the winds, a cold front will provide forcing along a moisture axis for some rain showers mainly Friday afternoon. There could be some downsloping shadowing of this precipitation from the winds across the Champlain Valley. Highs will be just a touch above seasonable averages Friday in the mid-50s to lower 60s while remaining mostly cloudy with mild southerly flow.

Tomorrow night, precipitation chances will decrease once more as drier air moves in behind the cold front, with showers lingering on the central/southern Greens and the Northeast Kingdom. In fact, there may even be some mostly clear skies moving into the St.
Lawrence Valley toward sunrise Saturday morning. Winds will taper as the low level jet shifts eastward, but lingering gusts 15-20 knots are possible early on. Lows will still be somewhat mild in the mid- 30s to the mid-40s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 324 PM EDT Thursday...The cold front will continue to push away to the east on Saturday, while an upper shortwave trough scoots by overhead. While the best moisture will have exited with the cold front, the shortwave is fairly vigorous and lapse rates will steepen in response to the cold pool aloft. Scattered showers will develop, mainly across northern areas as the trough swings across, but with very dry air at the surface, hard to discern how much precipitation will be able to reach the ground. Still, any showers will be capable of producing gusty winds. Even outside of convective activity, winds will be breezy due to ample mixing; gusts of 25-35 mph still look reasonable. Temperatures will be cooler than Friday but still seasonable, ranging from the mid 40s to the lower/mid 50s. Showers will wind down Saturday evening as the shortwave pushes east and we lose daytime heating. The reinforcing shot of cold air will allow lows to reach down into the upper 20s to mid/upper 30s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 324 PM EDT Thursday...Other than a few possible showers over far northern areas Sunday as another weak shortwave rotates around the upper low positioned to our north, expect a dry start to next week. Our next chance of precipitation arrives mid week as another upper low digs down into central and southern Ontario/Quebec while a shortwave trough moves east from the Midwest. Still some question on how these two features will interact, but overall model consensus shows a fairly robust upper low pivoting eastward along/just north of the international border Wednesday into Thursday. Better moisture feeding into the system on increasing south/southwest flow will result in widespread shower chances Tuesday night and Wednesday, with showers likely lingering into Thursday, depending on how quickly upper low is able to move eastward. Overnight temperatures Wednesday night would likely be cold enough for snow to mix in at higher elevations. Otherwise, will be a touch on the cooler side, mainly 40s to low 50s, under breezy conditions.

AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 18Z Friday...Radar shows a band of fairly benign rain showers moving through the Champlain Valley and south/central Vermont this afternoon. These showers have brought with them cloud ceilings of 2200-2900 feet above ground level for MSS, SLK, and BTV. Other sites are currently VFR, but could experience some bouncing cloud ceilings between VFR and MVFR during and following the rain showers. Visibilities remain VFR for most sites with the exception of MSS, which had a short bout of heavier rain with IFR visibilities a few hours ago. This is not expected to continue at MSS, and IFR conditions are not anticipated to be widespread or common at any site.

Southeasterly winds are gusting 15-25 knots at some sites and could continue on and off throughout the night as the atmosphere continues to mix in areas without rain falling. That is, except MSS, which is keeping its northeasterly wind of 5-10 knots for the moment. However, gusts may become less frequent and winds will become mostly southeasterly at all sites. Gusts will likely return around 13-16Z Friday as a low level jet moves overhead.
Gusts will be roughly 15-30 knots, depending on the site.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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