Tuesday, January23, 2018 L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Marshfield, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 4:51PM Tuesday January 23, 2018 10:42 PM EST (03:42 UTC) Moonrise 11:41AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marshfield, VT
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location: 44.36, -72.29     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 240319
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
1019 pm est Tue jan 23 2018

Rainfall will continue through the early evening hours before
becoming more focused on the higher terrain. As colder air moves
in this evening expect a transition back to snow with 1 to 2 inches
possible in the higher terrain. We'll see another chance for
rainfall and another warm up heading into the weekend as a system
will bring rain and snow to the region.

Near term through Wednesday night
As of 1008 pm est Tuesday... Have bumped up overnight temps a bit
as current observations are running a bit warmer than expected.

Precipitation has pushed through the area. Secondary cold front
evident on radar still to the northwest of our CWA will cause
another surge of colder air and winds to turn to the northwest.

Tempeartures will fall all night and tonights min will likely be
tomorrow's high at 12z. Fog has dissipated across the area as
well. Winds have turned to southwest behind initial front.

Short term Thursday through Friday
As of 336 pm est Tuesday... Thursday Thursday night will be the
coldest period of the week as flow turns increasingly northwesterly
behind the departing early mid week system. This will usher in
a colder air mass from central canada featuring 850 mb
temperatures nearing -20c. At the surface, high pressure will
build in from the west, resulting in a cold but mainly sunny day
Thursday with rapid overnight cooling Thursday night. Look for
daytime highs in the teens Thursday dipping down to near zero
Thursday night, with readings below zero expected in the
northern adirondacks in ny and east of the green mountains in
vt. Winds will be lighter Thursday than Wednesday, however even
the 5-10 mph winds forecasted will make for cold wind chills
Thursday morning through Thursday evening. While the building
high pressure will create a subsidence inversion between 800
and 900 mb, the surface boundary layer will continue to be
fairly well mixed. Some gusts of 15 to 20 mph, particularly
Thursday afternoon, can't be ruled out. The winds will subside
by Thursday evening, further supporting the rapid radiational
heat loss overnight.

Starting Friday morning, the center of the surface high will
shift further east and offshore, allowing for widespread
southerly return flow over the eastern us. This will set off a
warming trend throughout the day Friday that will allow daytime
high temperatures to top out in the 20s throughout northern ny
and vt. Friday will feature a few more clouds than Thursday,
however will still be dry and overall a good day to get some
fresh air and sunshine before the next system steals our
remaining Sun over the weekend.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 500 pm est Tuesday... An increasingly amplified upper-level
pattern will develop towards the end of the week featuring a
building subtropical ridge off the east coast and a digging
trough upstream over the central us. Between these two features,
deep southwesterly flow will direct warm, moist maritime
tropical air from the gulf coast towards the northeastern us.

Models continue to have difficulty coming to a consensus with
the handling of the overall evolution of the longwave pattern,
with the deterministic GFS holding strong with remarkable run-
to-run consistency as the main outlier. Previous runs of the
ecmwf cmc have favored a higher amplitude trough digging over
the central us. This higher amplification solution (ecmwf cmc)
results in a slower progression of the trough, allowing for
increased moisture transport and warm air advection into our
area than the more progressive GFS solution. With fairly high
spread between the individual GFS ensemble members and the
latest 23.12z ECMWF trending towards the lesser amplified gfs,
thinking it's still to early to completely rule out any
solution. However, continued to trend the extended forecast
towards the ECMWF cmc higher amplified solution, with higher
temperatures and categorical pops Sunday. Much uncertainty
exists however in the amount of warming (affecting precipitation
type forecast), timing, and QPF associated with the system.

With the heavier use of the ECMWF cmc, the long term forecast
features building cloud cover and warmer temperatures Saturday,
followed by a cold front passage Sunday. The passage of the cold
front will bring quite a bit of rain Sunday that will transition
to snow Sunday night as temperatures drop. Overall, it wouldn't
be out of the question to get close to an inch of QPF out of
this system Sunday through Monday, renewing hydro concerns once
again. Behind the front, temperatures will begin another
downward trend for the early to mid part of the next work week.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
Through 00z Thursday... Challenging 6 hour aviation forecast with
rapidly changing conditions expected as surface cold front is
moving across the cpv now. This front will be accompanied by a
brief 10 to 20 minute heavy rain shower along with a wind shift
to the west. Winds will become gusty at times up to 30 knots
which will help to quickly break up the fog at mpv.

Meanwhile... Expect lingering rain snow showers to redevelop over
northern ny slv with periods of MVFR CIGS vis. Have placed a
tempo from 03-06z of 2sm vis with -sn and MVFR CIGS at slk.

Breezy winds will prevail across all TAF sites from the
west northwest at 15 to 25 knots into weds with MVFR cigs
becomingVFR by 16z weds. Winds will decease to under 10 knots
by sunset on weds.


Wednesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
shra, slight chance fzra, slight chance sn.

Saturday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
shra, chance shsn.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Likely ra.

As of 353 pm est Tuesday... Widespread rainfall will continue
through the evening however the bulk of the rainfall has already
fallen. Current data suggests that between 0.25-0.75 inches of
rain fell over northern new york with between 0.50 to 1.00 inch
falling over vermont. Given the substantial loss of snowpack
across lower elevations during last week's storm, and the fact
that the warm- up will be of lesser magnitude we are not
expecting significant ice movement or and only modest water
rises on area rivers at this time. This is in close agreement
with nerfc guidance and our latest river forecasts. Nevertheless
conditions will continue to be monitored closely over the next
36 hours.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Deal
near term... Neiles
short term... Rsd
long term... Rsd
aviation... Taber
hydrology... WFO btv

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Johnsbury - Fairbanks, VT15 mi1.8 hrsno data mi35°F35°F100%998.8 hPa
Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT18 mi51 minWSW 9 G 2410.00 miA Few Clouds37°F37°F100%1000.6 hPa
Caledonia County Airport, VT20 mi67 minN 010.00 miOvercast34°F34°F99%998.6 hPa
Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT21 mi48 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast36°F34°F93%999.7 hPa

Wind History from 1V4 (wind in knots)
Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.