Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Burlington, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 5:33PM Thursday February 22, 2018 9:12 PM EST (02:12 UTC) Moonrise 11:23AMMoonset 12:45AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Burlington, VT
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location: 44.43, -73.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 222345
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
645 pm est Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis
An active period of weather is expected Friday into this upcoming
weekend with two systems providing the north country with a wintry
mix to rain type of scenario. First system impacts our region on
Friday with the second on Sunday... As the trend of above normal
temperatures continue. A minor ice accumulation in eastern and
central vermont on Friday afternoon could produce a few slick spots
during the evening commute. Gusty southeast downslope winds along
the western slopes are possible on Sunday.

Near term through Friday
As of 645 pm est Thursday... Overall forecast in good shape with
only tweak being the removal of any lingering light snow down
across southern vermont as precipitation is now well south and
east of the area. Quiet weather is expected for the remainder of
the night.

Previous discussion...

large scale shows ribbon of deep layer moisture rotating around
mid upper level anticyclone over the SE CONUS with several
embedded 5h vorts. Water vapor shows enhanced mid level moisture
and weak vort that brought rutland windsor counties light snow
this aftn quickly shifting east of our cwa. Meanwhile... 1043mb
high pres located over central canada will nose into our cwa
overnight... With dry air and cooler temperatures. Given the
north south gradient in rh clouds... Thinking coldest values near
international border and warmest south... Even with some fresh
snow. Lows generally mid teens to lower 20s
water vapor showing our next pocket of mid level moisture and
embedded 5h vort in the fast progressive southwest flow aloft over
the ms valley. This surge of moisture and lift will impact our cwa
on Friday aftn night with another round of mainly light precip. The
primary sfc low is expected to track into the central great lakes,
while 1040mb high pres provides some cold air damming on east side
of the greens. However... Airmass is not very cold and boundary layer
should warm above freezing before precip arrives in most areas by
Friday aftn. Mav at slk is 43 and met is 40, indicating the bl
warming. High resolution soundings show complex surface to
700mb thermal profiles with warm nose of 3 to 5c air btwn
850-700mb associated with southwest jet of 45 to 50 knots, while
cold pocket is noted east of the greens with -2c to -4c between
925mb and 850mb. This idea supports a mix of sleet freezing
rain in mid slope elevations of central eastern vt, including
the nek and in colder deeper valley pockets. The northern slv is
tricky as temps might warm just enough above freezing before
precip arrives, even with northeast sfc winds... But areas of
freezing rain with minor ice accumulation likely for the dacks
above 2000 feet. Brisk southerly winds will warm cpv and most of
the western dacks above freezing with maybe just a mix of
sleet snow initially associated with evaporational cooling. Any
ice accumulation will be light... But could cause a few slick
spots during the evening commute. Snow sleet accumulation of an
inch or two possible nek... Where cold air holds on the longest.

Southwest 850mb winds of 45 to 50 knots will limit QPF in the
cpv... With values ranging from 0.05 to 0.25 areawide. Temps
mainly in the 30s to near 40f... Except mid upper 20s mountains.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 329 pm est Thursday... Friday night the areal coverage of
mixed precip will quickly decrease by 06z... As best 850 to 500mb
moisture shifts into eastern new england. Have continued to
mention high likely cat pops thru 03z... Than taper off to chc
pops by 12z Saturday. Sfc cold front pushes thru CWA between
06z-12z as progged 850mb temps drop btwn -3c and -7c... With any
mix precip changing to snow showers. Accumulations will be very
light... As moisture decreases as entire thermal column becomes
cold enough to support snow... Maybe a dusting to an inch
northern dacks northern greens. Lows mainly upper 20s to l m
30s. 1030mb high pres develops on Saturday with mainly clear
skies anticipated. Thinking the combination of sunshine and
progged 850mb temps in the -4c to -7c range... Should support
highs upper 30s to mid 40s with northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday night... Skies start clear with 1036mb high pres over
northern maine... But as winds turn southerly and mid level moisture
increases aft 06z... Expect temps to warm toward morning. The
combination of initial 5h vort and developing moderate low to mid
lvl warm air lift... Expect precip to be approaching our southern
zones by 12z Sunday. Initially thermal profiles support all snow to
start... But developing southwest 850mb jet of 50 to 55 knots will
once again push warm layer into our CWA by Sunday aftn. Have early
evening lows in the upper teens to upper 20s on Saturday night with
likely pops arriving toward 12z Sunday.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 343 pm est Thursday... Another bout of precipitation will move
through the forecast area starting Sunday morning as a warm
front tries to push northeastward. Cold air at the surface will
be slow to erode however, resulting in a layer of warm air
nosing in aloft over subfreezing surface at the surface. The
evolution of the this thermal profile will favor a messy mixed
precipitation event with multiple precipitation type transitions
through Monday morning. Light precipitation will start Sunday
morning as mixed precipitation in northern new york and as snow
in vermont as the warmer air is colder to arrive further east.

Dropping a half inch to two inches of snow before transitioning
to ice pellets and then rain throughout the morning into early
afternoon. By Sunday afternoon, periods of rain will overspread
the region. Could see some brief mixed precipitation light snow
again Sunday night into Monday morning before precipitation
tapers off during the day.

As the warm front pushes into the area, a southwesterly low to mid
level jet will increase. Meanwhile at the surface, an
increasing pressure gradient between high pressure over the
canadian maritimes and low pressure over the great lakes will
support a strengthening surface easterly wind. This setup is
favorable for mountain waves west of the green mountains Sunday
afternoon with strong easterly southeasterly winds perpendicular
to the spine of the green mountains, a temperature inversion
present near mountain top level, and a critical layer present
above the inversion. This will support wind gusts Sunday morning
in excess of 40 mph west of the green mountains. The winds will
taper off throughout the day however as the pressure gradient
decreases and by Monday quieter weather will settle in.

Next work week will start out generally dry weather as high
pressure crests to our south. Midweek, precipitation chances
return as a series of upper-level waves round the persistent
bermuda high and move through the north country. Temperatures
will remain above normal with highs generally in the upper 30s
to low 40s expected through the week.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
Through 00z Saturday... Generally looking atVFR conditions
through about 18z and then ceilings and visibilities lower into
the MVFR category as precipitation becomes fairly widespread
across the area. The precipitation amounts will not be heavy so
visibilities will generally be in the MVFR category... But could
lower into the ifr category at some locations... Especially after
21z. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less... Then become
gusty from the south after 18z with gusts in the 20 to 25 knot
range at most locations.

Outlook...

Friday night: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance ra, likely fzra, slight chance shra.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. No sig wx.

Saturday night:VFR. Chance sn, likely fzra.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with localVFR possible. Definite ra,
definite fzra.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance shra,
chance fzra.

Monday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Monday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. No sig wx.

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. No sig wx.

Hydrology
As of 335 pm est Thursday... Localized ice jams on the great
chazy, missisquoi, salmon, winooski, and st regis continue to
produce minor flooding. Additional precipitation on Friday and
again on Sunday will have limited impacts on river levels with
no large scale warm ups anticipated.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Taber
near term... Evenson taber
short term... Taber
long term... Rsd
aviation... Evenson
hydrology... Taber


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT6 mi18 minNW 410.00 miFair23°F15°F72%1040.8 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY19 mi19 minW 410.00 miFair21°F15°F78%1041.2 hPa

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8N11N10N11
G17
N9N8N8NW8N6N6N7N7NW7W4NW6NW8NW9NW7NW7NW3NW7NW8N5NW4
1 day agoS15
G20
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G22
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G26
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SW11NW10N8NW13NW18
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N7N10N7
2 days agoS14
G23
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S16
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SW11
G18
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G18
SW6S7S7S9S14
G21
S7S16
G25
SW11
G19
S14
G20
S10S10S13S9S7SW8S11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.