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LMZ542 Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 107 Am Cdt Tue Apr 23 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon - .
Overnight - SW wind 10 to 20 kts with gusts to around 25 kts. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Today - SW wind 10 to 20 kts veering W in the afternoon. Gusts to around 25 kts. Light rain showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Tonight - N wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 4 to 7 ft. Wednesday - NE wind 10 to 20 kts. Gusts to around 25 kts in the morning. Sunny. Waves 4 to 7 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KGRB 230322 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1022 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday, but severe storms are not expected.

- Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon through Saturday. It is too early to determine whether they might be severe.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Short Term...Tonight and Tuesday

Gusty southwest winds and sunny skies for much of the morning allowed temperatures to surge into the 60s fairly readily today, with a few places now approaching the upper 60s this afternoon.
Combined with the wind and warmth, low dewpoints, especially over the sandy soil regions, brought relative humidity readings into the 20% range and a few into the upper teens. Suffice to say, would expect elevated fire weather conditions to persist through the late afternoon and evening before moderating wind gusts and lowering temperatures arrive.

This evening, a relatively fast moving cold front will cross the region, keeping skies cloudy through the evening and early overnight and possibly bringing in a round of showers. The aforementioned dry conditions will be an obstacle for any rain to overcome and will likely limit the overall rainfall that can reach the surface. No thunder is expected at this time with these showers and any rain that does get to the surface is generally expected to be less than a tenth of an inch. Subsidence behind the cold front will clear out showers fairly quickly, bringing back dry conditions and clearing skies.

Tuesday, a stronger secondary cold front will push into the region by the late morning to afternoon bringing another round of active weather. This front will bring a round of fairly decent frontogenesis in the mid- levels and strong vorticity advection.
Most models develop around 400-800 MUCAPE ahead of the frontal passage as well, so all together some thunder does seem likely Tuesday afternoon, with the highest potential across central Wisconsin to the Fox Valley. Although severe weather is not expected, some occasional gusty winds are still possible. The cold air advection behind the front will be strong enough to begin lowering temperatures at the surface, even during the afternoon.
As a result, high temperatures have a fairly wide spread tomorrow from the lower 50s near the Upper Peninsula border to the middle to upper 60s near the southern portion of the Fox Valley. Colder air filling in behind the front may even produce a few snowflakes across the north before precipitation moves out of the region.

Long Term...Tuesday Night Through Monday

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms should end over east central Wisconsin Tuesday evening, with clearing overnight as a 1030mb surface high over Hudson's Bay begins to move south into the Great Lakes. The north northeast flow around the high will bring very dry air into Wisconsin Wednesday, with afternoon relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent possible. Winds will be rather light, and temperatures cool, which should lessen the fire weather threat to some degree.

Winds will become south and temperatures warm as the high moves off to the east Thursday and Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will arrive Friday afternoon and continue into Saturday as a surface low moves northeast across the Plains states.

Temperatures will be below normal Wednesday, near average Thursday and Friday, and above normal Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1002 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Evening showers will shift east of the forecast area by issuance time, followed by a dry period and partial clearing overnight into early Tuesday. Surface winds will subside and LLWS will gradually end from west to east overnight.

On Tuesday, a strong cold frontal passage will generate numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms in a marginally unstable air mass, especially in the afternoon and early evening. Will continue to highlight the best two-hour window for thunderstorms at all of the TAF sites, except RHI. Ceilings may drop to MVFR behind the cold front in far northern WI, but models have backed off a bit on the low ceilings.

West to northwest winds will gradually increase on Tuesday, then abruptly turn north and become gusty as the cold front moves through during the afternoon and early evening. The strongest winds will likely occur in the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Milder temperatures in the 60s, gustier southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, and low relative humidity values of 20 to 30 percent will keep elevated fire weather conditions in place through early this evening, until showers advect into the area from the west.

Another period of elevated fire weather conditions is possible Wednesday and Thursday, as a dry airmass moves into the region.
Afternoon RH values of 25 to 30 percent are possible on Wednesday, but cooler temps are anticipated in the low 50s. On Thursday, RH values will be slightly higher between 25 to 35 percent, and temps will also be slightly higher in the mid 50s to low 60s. But, due to the proximity of the prevailing high pressure system, winds will be below critical levels on both days.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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