Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pepin, WI
April 23, 2024 1:49 PM CDT (18:49 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:09 AM Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 7:08 PM Moonset 4:55 AM |
Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 231735 AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1235 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered showers return midday, primarily over western Wisconsin.
- Another frost/freeze overnight with temperatures falling back near or below freezing outside the metro.
- Our next system arrives by Friday, with a more widespread rain looking likely. The system track still has yet to be resolved, thus thunderstorm chances are still possible but currently unknown in spread and strength.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Our low pressure center is currently situated along the Minnesota/Canada border, and will continue to track southeastward today. This will allow CAA rain showers to move through east-central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible, especially over Wisconsin, where MUCAPE values could peak around 250 J/kg. For timing, expect a few showers to move through east-central Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin late morning, with more rain filling in by the afternoon. Any rain should make its exodus by this evening, with clouds beginning to scatter out after sunset.
Cool, Canadian air will fill in behind the passing system, resulting in what should be our last big chance for frost/freeze this month.
Ridging will start to build in over the Plains, which will situate the MPX CWA right along the boundary of warmer air to our west and cooler air to our east. As such, highs in western Minnesota tomorrow could reach the upper 60s, while areas closer to central Wisconsin will be more in the low-mid 50s. Regardless, it should be a nice day with mostly sunny skies and weak winds. Areas further east will have their final shot of below freezing temps overnight Wednesday, while western Minnesota may not even drop into the 40s.
Thursday will start off as a nice day, but conditions will start to deteriorate quickly as a negatively tilted trough will look to eject the first of two waves across the central Plains. Not too much has changed since the previous discussion, so I will focus on those few changes/trends. 1) The latest suite of GFS, Euro, and Canadian ensemble forecasts have started to "balance out" QPF associated with the two individual systems. In other words, there is a better defined time frame of when the heaviest rainfall will occur with each system, with a clear break from rain likely during part of the day Saturday. 2) The most likely (60-70%) scenario continues to be widespread rain with sporadic severe weather mixed in, especially in in southern Minnesota. 3) Strong winds are expected through the duration of the two waves, with widespread gusts up to 45 MPH possible Thursday into Friday.
One final note, this stint of active weather is thanks to an omega blocking pattern that sets up over the CONUS. If this pattern holds, another good signal for potential severe weather could set up at the beginning of May. This is obviously WAY too far out to have any confidence, but just wanted to include to give a heads up of the potential for this active weather to keep rolling as we head into May.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Broken status and Cu cover much of the region. Ceilings are mainly VFR but isolated showers/thunderstorms have developed over portions of eastern MN into western WI, with better coverage at the WI TAFs, and these showers may bring along brief MVFR ceilings. There is an outside chance of CB/TS at KEAU so have included that mention there and may need to AMD TS into KRNH if these isolated storms continue to build westward. Skies will then clear out overnight through tomorrow as high pressure arrives. Breezy conditions are again expected with NW winds increasing to 15-20G25-30kts this afternoon before appreciably diminishing this evening.
KMSP... Small window of having MVFR ceilings early to mid afternoon and potentially a few minor rain showers. Winds shift to southeasterly by sunrise Wednesday.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Chance MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind SE 10-15kts increasing to 15-20G30kts.
FRI...MVFR/-RA, chance IFR/TS. Wind SE 15-20G25-30kts.
SAT...MVFR/-RA, chance TFR/TS. Wind SW 15-20G25-30kts becoming NW.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1235 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered showers return midday, primarily over western Wisconsin.
- Another frost/freeze overnight with temperatures falling back near or below freezing outside the metro.
- Our next system arrives by Friday, with a more widespread rain looking likely. The system track still has yet to be resolved, thus thunderstorm chances are still possible but currently unknown in spread and strength.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Our low pressure center is currently situated along the Minnesota/Canada border, and will continue to track southeastward today. This will allow CAA rain showers to move through east-central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible, especially over Wisconsin, where MUCAPE values could peak around 250 J/kg. For timing, expect a few showers to move through east-central Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin late morning, with more rain filling in by the afternoon. Any rain should make its exodus by this evening, with clouds beginning to scatter out after sunset.
Cool, Canadian air will fill in behind the passing system, resulting in what should be our last big chance for frost/freeze this month.
Ridging will start to build in over the Plains, which will situate the MPX CWA right along the boundary of warmer air to our west and cooler air to our east. As such, highs in western Minnesota tomorrow could reach the upper 60s, while areas closer to central Wisconsin will be more in the low-mid 50s. Regardless, it should be a nice day with mostly sunny skies and weak winds. Areas further east will have their final shot of below freezing temps overnight Wednesday, while western Minnesota may not even drop into the 40s.
Thursday will start off as a nice day, but conditions will start to deteriorate quickly as a negatively tilted trough will look to eject the first of two waves across the central Plains. Not too much has changed since the previous discussion, so I will focus on those few changes/trends. 1) The latest suite of GFS, Euro, and Canadian ensemble forecasts have started to "balance out" QPF associated with the two individual systems. In other words, there is a better defined time frame of when the heaviest rainfall will occur with each system, with a clear break from rain likely during part of the day Saturday. 2) The most likely (60-70%) scenario continues to be widespread rain with sporadic severe weather mixed in, especially in in southern Minnesota. 3) Strong winds are expected through the duration of the two waves, with widespread gusts up to 45 MPH possible Thursday into Friday.
One final note, this stint of active weather is thanks to an omega blocking pattern that sets up over the CONUS. If this pattern holds, another good signal for potential severe weather could set up at the beginning of May. This is obviously WAY too far out to have any confidence, but just wanted to include to give a heads up of the potential for this active weather to keep rolling as we head into May.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Broken status and Cu cover much of the region. Ceilings are mainly VFR but isolated showers/thunderstorms have developed over portions of eastern MN into western WI, with better coverage at the WI TAFs, and these showers may bring along brief MVFR ceilings. There is an outside chance of CB/TS at KEAU so have included that mention there and may need to AMD TS into KRNH if these isolated storms continue to build westward. Skies will then clear out overnight through tomorrow as high pressure arrives. Breezy conditions are again expected with NW winds increasing to 15-20G25-30kts this afternoon before appreciably diminishing this evening.
KMSP... Small window of having MVFR ceilings early to mid afternoon and potentially a few minor rain showers. Winds shift to southeasterly by sunrise Wednesday.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Chance MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind SE 10-15kts increasing to 15-20G30kts.
FRI...MVFR/-RA, chance IFR/TS. Wind SE 15-20G25-30kts.
SAT...MVFR/-RA, chance TFR/TS. Wind SW 15-20G25-30kts becoming NW.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KRGK RED WING RGNL,WI | 17 sm | 14 min | WNW 13G22 | 10 sm | Overcast | 57°F | 37°F | 47% | 29.75 |
La Crosse, WI,
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