Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake City, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 5:53PM Saturday February 24, 2018 10:01 AM CST (16:01 UTC) Moonrise 12:08PMMoonset 2:21AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake City city, MN
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location: 44.46, -92.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 241147
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
547 am cst Sat feb 24 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 422 am cst Sat feb 24 2018
early morning water vapor imagery reveals the upper trough is moving
east over the four corners region as of 09z. The latest surface
analysis indicates surface cyclogenesis occurring near the
colorado new mexico border. Closer to home, we're still under high
pressure early this morning with much of the area under a dense fog
advisory through 15z. We do recommend you exercise caution on the
roadways this morning, as fog at these cold temperatures may produce
slick conditions on area roads.

The forecast for the snow later today remains largely on track. The
most notable change was to drop the snow amounts down around an
inch or so, mainly due to the relatively high speed of the system,
which limits the amount of time spent under moderate heavy snow. The
placement of the heavies snow, which should be about 5-7", remains
in the winter storm warning area. Did not need to make any
adjustments to the warning or advisory issued yesterday. There is
still some uncertainty with this event. The QPF from the various
guidance does vary, so continued to stick with a blended approach.

The impressive shortwave will gain a negative tilt as it races
northeast toward our area later today. Impressive forcing is
expected and there even looks to be some elevated instability with
the snow this afternoon and tonight. Most of the accumulation will
come in a 4-6 hour period of moderate to heavy snow, with the timing
dependent on your exact location. For the twin cities, the heaviest
snow will move through from about 3pm-9pm. Travel will quickly
become difficult as the snow spreads in from the southwest this
afternoon, as visibilities will crash very rapidly at the onset. On
top of that, 1-2" hr rates are likely, so the snow will pile up
quickly on the roads. Alter travel plans if possible.

The snow will come to an abrupt end late tonight from southwest to
northeast. The wind speeds will then increase overnight, especially
across far southern mn. Winds of up to 30 mph will lead to some
blowing and drifting snow overnight, hence travel will remain
difficult overnight.

Long term (Sunday through Friday)
issued at 422 am cst Sat feb 24 2018
quiet weather expected for next week with temperatures near or
slightly above the seasonal average for late february. The storm
track will generally be to the south, so little if any precipitation
is expected.

There is a slight chance for a strong storm to develop and move
across the region Wednesday into Thursday, but this storm is
trending a bit further south. The origins of this storm are from a
positively tilted upper level trough off the coast of california,
and these systems generally are poorly handled by the numerical
models. The 24.00z ECMWF is farther south than the GFS and gem.

Given the uncertainty in both the large scale pattern, and the
spread in the forecast models, at this time feel there is a better
chance of it not happening than of it happening. In other words,
something to watch, but not something to hang your hat on since it
will likely end up south of the forecast area.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 540 am cst Sat feb 24 2018
much of the area is starting the day with fog, and lifr cigs. The
fog will likely linger across eastern mn and western wi through
mid morning. The snowstorm is still on track to abruptly
deteriorate conditions this afternoon lasting into tonight. This
will be a quick moving but heavy bout of snow, with 1-2" hr rates
moving through for a couple hours this afternoon evening. The
heaviest band will drop 5 to 7 inches with most of that
accumulation occurring in about a 5-6 hour window. Lifr conditions
expected with 1 4sm visibility at times.

Kmsp... Heavy band expected to move through from about 22z through
02z or so, with rates of 1-2" hr likely. Expect 5-7 inches of
accumulation by tomorrow morning, most of which will fall from 22z
to 04z.

Outlook for kmsp
sun... MVFR early,VFR during the afternoon. Wind W at 20g25kt.

Mon...VFR. Wind SW at 15g20kt.

Tue... MVFR with -sn possible. Wind NE at 05kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst this morning for wiz014>016-
023>028.

Winter storm warning from 3 pm this afternoon to 6 am cst Sunday
for wiz023-024-026.

Winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 am cst Sunday
for wiz014>016-025-027.

Winter weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 am cst
Sunday for wiz028.

Mn... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst this morning for mnz054-056-
064-065-067-070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

Winter storm warning from 3 pm this afternoon to 6 am cst Sunday
for mnz050-051-058>063-066>070-076>078-084-085.

Winter weather advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 6 am cst
Sunday for mnz041>043-048-049-057.

Winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 am cst Sunday
for mnz044-045-052-053.

Winter weather advisory from noon today to 3 am cst Sunday for
mnz047-054>056-064-093.

Winter storm warning from noon today to 3 am cst Sunday for
mnz065-073>075-082-083-091-092.

Short term... Spd
long term... Jrb
aviation... Spd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Red Wing - Red Wing Regional Airport, WI16 mi67 minN 03.00 miFair with Haze16°F10°F79%1020.7 hPa

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Last 24hrW7
G14
W6W7W6W9W7W9W9W4W5CalmNW5NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3
1 day agoSE5SE12SE7SE8E8E7E8E7E6
G15
SE10E11E8E10E4CalmE5NE3CalmCalmCalmW3W5W7W8
2 days agoCalmW4W7CalmCalmW4W3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6SE4SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.